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Pessimist's Thread


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#1 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 04:41 PM

This is the thread to put in all pessimistic analysis and predictions. Optimists, stay out. You're not wlecome here. Don't bring us down by trying to bring us up. Start your own thread, if you must.

(Okay, at the end of the season, if the Sox have won the division, you can come back here and mock us. Or me, I might be the only one who ends up posting here.)

First of all, tonight: Wells has been crappy on the road all year, and particularly so at Toronto. Towers has been their best pitcher for a while now, and hasn't been hit hard in a while. He's got a lower ERA than Wells, is at home, and has done better recently.

Damon is out for tonight, and we don't know when he'll be back.

The Blue Jays have beaten us 9 of 13, and we still have 5 more games with them.

As for the rest of the season: the bullpen sucks and is paper thin. We're counting on old, overused Timlin and Papelbon, who has barely pitched in the majors and seems to only have one pitch at this point.

The offense has been great this year, but every offense slumps at some point. The sox are averaging about 4 runs a game in September.

We don't get a day off until the 22nd, at which point we will have played 30 straight games. Coming at the end of the season, this wear and tear could really impact performances negatively. Varitek is slumping lately, maybe due to this, or maybe because it's not realistic to expect him to hit like Mickey Cochrane all year long.

We're only up two on the Chokers in the loss column. They are capable of going on long hot streaks at any time. They have a great offense and a lights-out closer. Small has sold his soul to the devil in order to become a dominant major league pitcher for this year only. Randy Johnson is starting to pitch better, is 4-0 vs. the Sox and will surely face us in the last series.

The 17 runs they put up last night might be the start of another one of their hot streaks.

There are optimistic views that might counter almost all of these points, but this thread isn't the place to point them out. This is the woe-is-me, bad luck Schleprock, sky-is-falling thread. Those who hate that kind of thing can just ignore it. Others who see the glass half empty can join in here.

:D ;) :D ;) :( :(

#2 jacklamabe65


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 04:51 PM

I can't wait for 2006. I guess that means........

#3 67YAZ

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 05:10 PM

Not that Dusty Baker is the most repsected authority on pitchers, but...after last night's game, I'm starting to see why Clement rode the bench during the Cubs' wild card chase last season. I have doubts about Clement stepping it up, or even staying the same, during September and October.

Edit: 2002-2004 Sept ERA: 4.68. Only other month over 4.00 is May at 4.28.

Edited by 67YAZ, 14 September 2005 - 05:15 PM.


#4 Clears Cleaver


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 05:11 PM

This team is a mirror of all the Red Sox teams that have failed in the past. Great offense, terrible defense and bad pitching except for one or two guys.

#5 Murray Rude

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 05:36 PM

I'm most worried by Damon.

#6 bornintoit

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 05:46 PM

If the Sox do somehow lose the division by 1 or 2 games one thing is for sure: the scrutiny of Francona becomes a lot more legitimate even to the optimists and supporters of him....

Edited by bornintoit, 14 September 2005 - 05:46 PM.


#7 SoxFanSince57


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 05:50 PM

We don't get a day off until the 22nd, at which point we will have played 30 straight games. Coming at the end of the season, this wear and tear could really impact performances negatively. Varitek is slumping lately, maybe due to this, or maybe because it's not realistic to expect him to hit like Mickey Cochrane all year long.


Boy, is this a significant danger for me. I have been walking around most of the second half with a feeling that Tito is managing the '78 club. That team was run into the ground. Regulars were burnt out and subs rarely used. My concern is and has been that Tito is too weak a manager to "force" an effective rotation of his bench. Hey, why keep Payton? Tito wasn't going to use him anyway. Manny is ripped for being fatigued. He is called all matter of names and insulted to the 10th degree. Just terrible. IMO, it is telling that the combo of Olerud and Millar have played so well down the stretch.

#8 yecul


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 05:53 PM

Hitting the playoffs will allow them to shorten their rotation/deepen their pen.

If Schilling is for real and Wakefield can keep it up that will be sufficient. One of Wells/Arroyo/Clement will have to simply be ok for them to win series. The pen is a big concern. Who can you count on to give you a scoreless inning? No one at this point. And that's just one guy.

There are many holes/issues on this club (not even mentioning Damon or whoever else), but the same can be said for every other team in the AL. I guess that's a positive spin so perhaps it doesn't belong in this thread.

I don't see any of this as pessemism. It's simply the reality of their situation.

#9 TimNJsoxfan

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 06:00 PM

Wakefield is on the verge of a slump that will make us forget what a great player and humanitarian he is.

Edgar Renteria will continue to field like he is blind and make 10 more errors this season.

#10 smastroyin


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 06:03 PM

I don't know if I am a pessimist so much as just disappointed in their play over the last two weeks. Yeah, they looked fine against Anaheim thanks to the Ortiz walk-off, but I was really hoping for them to approach the Yankee series with something more than the "we just need to avoid getting swept" mentality that so many here seem to have endorsed.

I much more of step on their throat until the very last breath they can muster has been expired....then keep your foot there another few minutes for posterity.

edit: how anybody can be an optimist about this team right now watching them play has to have some kind of opiate running through their body. This second inning is a joke.

Edited by smastroyin, 14 September 2005 - 06:36 PM.


#11 Fratboy


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 06:49 PM

True Confessions: I'm down with the negativity.

The Red Sox went for it last year. They won't admit it, but they did. This year, as with the A's, is a retooling year, while they build the team of the future. Why no major deadline deals? Why no dealing of young talent for established veterans? The Sox know they have an interesting, young, inexpensive, and talented future, and don't want to mortgage the future for the last gasp at another title.

I am perfectly fine if the Red Sox don't make the playoffs. I don't give a shit about the Yankees crowing about another choke - they'll finish in third place next year behind, in no particular order, the Red Sox and Blue Jays. And they'll finish behind the Rays in 2007, when they should be contenders as well.

We know that this team, as currently constituted, is NOT a team for the ages. The offense has been thunderous, but the pitching stinks to high heaven. The silver lining here is that all teams this year are flawed, and the Sox have as good a chance as anybody else.

I will be positively stunned if they make it to the World Series. And if they do make the playoffs, they will be quickly dispatched by the Tribe, for whom I am secretly rooting very, very hard to win it all this year.

#12 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 07:36 PM

It's almost fitting that one of our players should get injured on, of all things, a homerun trot.

#13 epraz


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 07:37 PM

This team is going to choke. It always has and it always will. choke choke choke choke. Gonna get swept by NY last series, but they'll be down 3 games already anyways.

Chokers.

#14 PedroKsBambino


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 07:37 PM

Doug Mirabelli is now next on the CF depth chart. That could be a problem.

#15 William Robertson

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 07:50 PM

I'm still fairly positive about the outcome of the season, but here's my addition to the negativity: the Blue Jays are a lot better than the Rays, and the odd phenomenon of TB terrorizing the MFY's may well have run its course.

#16 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 07:52 PM

Machado in CF??? And Lombard is the preferred alternative?

OHMIGOD!!!

Edit: Posted above moments before the Achilles Tendon was announced.

Edited by Lose Remerswaal, 14 September 2005 - 07:54 PM.


#17 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 07:56 PM

It's now worth noting that on the day this thread was begun, Kapler tore his Achilles tendon.

Please God, please don't let this become the second version of the "Pssssst..." thread.

#18 ShoelessJoe

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 08:03 PM

The Red Sox went for it last year. They won't admit it, but they did. This year, as with the A's, is a retooling year, while they build the team of the future. Why no major deadline deals? Why no dealing of young talent for established veterans? The Sox know they have an interesting, young, inexpensive, and talented future, and don't want to mortgage the future for the last gasp at another title.

I am perfectly fine if the Red Sox don't make the playoffs. I don't give a shit about the Yankees crowing about another choke - they'll finish in third place next year behind, in no particular order, the Red Sox and Blue Jays. And they'll finish behind the Rays in 2007, when they should be contenders as well.

We know that this team, as currently constituted, is NOT a team for the ages. The offense has been thunderous, but the pitching stinks to high heaven. The silver lining here is that all teams this year are flawed, and the Sox have as good a chance as anybody else.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh, I think that Theo was completely upfront about pulling out all the stops last year and said as much. The Sox mission statement is to be competitive every year, while making title runs as often as possible without mortgaging the future. They've been upfront about this as well. Now, they certainly aren't going to say "well we ain't going for it this year" because it's a) counterproductive and B) not true. If Schilling and Foulke don't go down, we're looking at a completely different dynamic. Although I agree with you in the sense that not making an upgrade to the pitching via trade was a conscious choice, I don't think it's exactly a retooling year. This team is a playoff caliber team, but probably not a World Champion. But, I think you're right in that the Sox are looking more toward 2006-2007 at this point (especially after it became clear that Schilling and Foulke were out.)

Edited by ShoelessJoe, 14 September 2005 - 08:03 PM.


#19 exGloucester

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Posted 14 September 2005 - 09:56 PM

Great thread. Yes, I am feeling the fear. Any stretch of five shitty games could put the whole fandom in a fetal position, sucking thumb on one hand and maniacally jerking off with the other to keep from going completely insane. Just like old times.

But it aint going to happen. Sox make playoffs this year.

#20 anaxamandr


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 10:10 PM

Does anybody know if renters or auto insurance covers you when you throw your tv out the 2nd story window and onto your car when the sox get knocked out of the playoffs by the cfys on the last day of the season?
I fully endorse the Bill Simmons: "5 year no griping" period after championships, but I can imagine being in a foul mood for weeks if the sox choke this season away in the next 2+ weeks. On the other hand, I am trying to prepare myself emotionally for that reality so i don't totally lose my grip if it comes to pass.
Once in the playoffs, tho, i don't think the sox would be unable to beat any team, except maybe the astros, if they get dominant performances from clemens, PettiTTe and oswalt back to back to back.

#21 Steve Dillard


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Posted 14 September 2005 - 10:13 PM

Anyone else noticing that Ortiz's walk off homers are going less far each time It's only a matter of time before his ninth inning at bats result in warning track flies.:)

#22 The Big Red Kahuna

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:06 AM

Anyone else noticing that Ortiz's walk off homers are going less far each time  It's only a matter of time before his ninth inning at bats result in warning track flies.:)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I noticed this and said so in the game thread last night. It is pissing me off. Does he think he simply needs to swing the bat without putting a little extra something on the swing? He is taking crap for granted. Also, another beef from last night. So, Kapler had a little ankle injury? At the very least, suck it up and crawl around the bases. His lying there helpless put Graf's HR trot all out of whack. It's bullshit like this that makes me wonder why I even like watching this team sometimes.

#23 Doug Beerabelli


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:21 AM

This team has no heart. How do I know? They shoulda made Kapler walk around the bases on his hands. By forcing Machado out there to complete the home run trot for Kaplar, it risked an injury to Machado. Clearly 2nd base was a dangerous place last night. It was probably safer to be out in New Orleans at night last week than touch second base.

At the very least, the two base home run trot could have tired out Machado, causing to not get enough on the throw to the plate on the play that scored the Jays' third run.

Edited by Doug Beerabelli, 15 September 2005 - 10:11 PM.


#24 DJnVa


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:24 AM

Graffanino should get drilled for his 5 minute HR trot. He clearly doesn't respect the game.

#25 thisyearisthe

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:25 AM

Shut it exGloucester. Didn't you read the ground rules? The Red Sox suck. If it wasn't for Ortiz we would probably be trailing Toronto in the standings.

There's no way we ride Matt Clement and Bronson Arroyo into the playoffs. The bullpen is ridiculous. Chad Harville? Save me.

#26 exGloucester

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:29 AM

----------
Shut it exGloucester. Didn't you read the ground rules? The Red Sox suck. If it wasn't for Ortiz we would probably be trailing Toronto in the standings.
-----------

I'd type a response, but both of my hands are very busy right now.

It's over. Not on.

#27 The Gray Eagle


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:57 AM

You know, the negativity and pessimism could be kept in this one thread. But people coming in here and posting saractic stuff now is not going to let this work. So this thread will be ruined, and the same people who came in here to ruin it will be bitching and whining in the catch-all threads about anyone being pessimistic there.

#28 Steve Dillard


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 12:18 PM

You know, the negativity and pessimism could be kept in this one thread. But people coming in here and posting saractic stuff now is not going to let this work. So this thread will be ruined, and the same people who came in here to ruin it will be bitching and whining in the catch-all threads about anyone being pessimistic there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Alright, if it's real pessimism you want, then I have to say Edgar Renteria is the worst shortstop we've had here since 1995. I can count three key hits he's had all year (1) homer vs. Anaheim, (2) double to win game at home (NESN hi-light) and (3) bunt single to set up Ortizzle time. Come clutch time, he'll do nothing.


The starters are too randomly crappy to play anything more than 10-7, and I'm too tired to start expecting the Small/Wright/Leiter trio to turn into the pumpkin they "rationally" should have. Hell, the Sox had their chance to kill the Yanks, and their inept offense vs. Small and Leiter ruined that chance. Yanks will go 13-5 vs. the remaining inept teams they face, while we have to play Oakland, Baltimore and Toronto (who we play poorly against).

Poppy can't keep doing this, and with Manny and Tek and Renteria and Mueller playing poorly, we've not got enough to keep up the hot streak.

Yanks will come back and knock us out of the playoff spot, reclaiming bragging rights vs. us after a short, one-year hiatus.

Edited by Steve Dillard, 15 September 2005 - 12:28 PM.


#29 exGloucester

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 12:42 PM

Here's some real pessimism: Kevin Millar may draw OF assignments. Think about that. Watch your joy die.

#30 Winger 03

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 12:52 PM

Jeezus! I thought you guys were over all of this $hit. The Sox are in first place, enjoy it.

#31 Buffalo Head

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 12:58 PM

Rainout tonight.

Rainout tomorrow.

Back-to-back doubleheaders Sat and Sun.

Death of the Bullpen.

Could happen.

#32 GreyisGone

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:15 PM

so let me get this clear, the red sox have no starting rotation, 2 guys who can pitch in the bullpen, and a sleeping offense?

well atleast i wont have to worry about late october nights watching them play.

#33 DieHard3


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:15 PM

A sweep is a very real possibility in this series. The Red Sox are a crippled organization right now. Varitek is wilting, Damon is courageously trying but a shell of himself, Nixon is now only 3 HRs ahead of Millar, and our pitching staff sucks.

Payton for Bradford continues to pay dividends, doesn't it? Theo really showed that Payton dude, didn't he! Boy, next time somebody is unhappy in the Red Sox clubhouse, they'll think twice before taking a chance at being traded to a better team offering him more playing time!

Edited by DieHard3, 15 September 2005 - 09:17 PM.


#34 Oil Can Dan

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:16 PM

1.5

#35 reggiecleveland


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:18 PM

Holy fuck is Edgar a bust. He will continue to suck through september.

And I have to watch Bronson pitch this series too.

#36 curly2

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:22 PM

The most depressing thought, easy: Edgar Renteria still has three years and $30 million left on his deal. That's plenty of money to buy more of the giant stamps he has used to mail in this season.

#37 TimNJsoxfan

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:24 PM

Posted Image

#38 Mugthis

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:25 PM

This team would be swepted by the '62 Mets. In Game 1, we leadoff with a HR, but our entire team is injuried in the process, causing us to forfeit the entire series.

#39 normstalls

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 09:46 PM

It used to be cool when tek made contact at the plate...

This team is playing like beaten down old men offensively and they have no bullpen. Not sure how far that will take ya?


edit: memo to sox fans, one day off does not make or break a season. It is not the magic cure all. A team that is confident, grinding, getting it done and winning doesnt want a day off. A team that is not confident, tired, unmotivated and losing looks for a day off.

Edited by normstalls, 15 September 2005 - 10:01 PM.


#40 Tiegs

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:03 PM

nothing much to add here, but that just felt like the wind was knocked out of a sail that was full just a few hrs ago.
my 1967 sox mug is starting to look 1/2 empty.
oy!

#41 Buffalo Head

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:10 PM

Oh shit.

Selig just called. They're taking back the 2004 trophy.

#42 Spacemans Bong


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:20 PM

The most depressing thought, easy: Edgar Renteria still has three years and $30 million left on his deal. That's plenty of money to buy more of the giant stamps he has used to mail in this season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since this is a fun bitch thread, I'll just note this.

Edgar Renteria 4 years, 40 million: 277/333/381. Something like a 90 OPS+ at Fenway.

Pedro Martinez 4 years, 52 million: 14-7, 2.93 197 K's in 203 innings.

Curt Schilling, 2 years, 26 million: 6-8, 6.20, 10 HR's in 74 innings.

Yeah.

#43 Rasputin


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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:32 PM

When the night is darkest and it seems dawn is an impossible dream, remember.

Posted Image

#44 Buffalo Head

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:39 PM

Posted Image

#45 EricM80

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 10:42 PM

Okay, until now I have never gotten a chuckle out of seeing a picture of Aaron Boone.

#46 Charley Weir

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Posted 15 September 2005 - 11:59 PM

Have to say I agre; just don't post Bucky F'n Dent - I will drown you!

The Mirabelli next in line in CF was better- I think I'd take him over Millar, tho - at least he might hit one out!

Another chuckler - pessimist thread 9,428, Optimist thread (24 hrs behind) 112.

Here's the only pessimism I'm going to contribute (Then Manila and I are gonna go to the Optimist's club for a beer);

You've only got 85 years to go 'till the next championship - so gird up your loins, and stock up on 'Gansett!

(Can you really wear out a DVD, playing it that many times?

#47 Doug Beerabelli


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Posted 16 September 2005 - 12:09 AM

I understand there's a crack team of pessimist scientists that are trying to install the "Faith Rewarded" DVD on R2D2 in hopes the Rebellion will get the message.

#48 Comfortably Lomb


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Posted 16 September 2005 - 12:52 AM

We're losing 10 of our next 12.

You heard it here first.

#49 Soxfan in Fla

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Posted 16 September 2005 - 05:55 AM

We're losing 10 of our next 12.

You heard it here first.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>



Red Sox will NOT make the postseason.

#50 scotian1

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Posted 16 September 2005 - 07:07 AM

It is now officially time to panic! After watching the Sox lose to Oakland last night with a shaky Schilling, Damon in center who literally only has the use of one arm, Renteria who is neither hitting or fielding, Varitek who looks lost,a bullpen that inspires no confidence, and numerous other problems my prediction is that this team is now likely to not make the playoffs. Have you ever witnessed a first place team with such a lack of enthusiasm on the bench as they had last night. They looked beaten, spent and worst of all disinterested.

Edited by scotian1, 16 September 2005 - 07:33 AM.