Lester 2008

[Rocco Graziosa]

What the heck is wrong with this guy? When you near June and a guy has a near 7 ERA, its time to discuss what the heck is going on here. He's still striking guys out so thats encouraging, but there comes a time when getting guys out means something. We are getting dangerously close to this NOT being a small sample size of failure.

Whats wrong here?

[Paul M]

He's pitching a lot better than his nominal ERA line but he's also had some lapses in concentration and been unlucky and also pitching up and out over the plate too much. Of course, he was outperforming his skills last year so a regression was highly likely for 2009. Needs to get more groundballs and his luck on balls in the air should improve, not to mention his % of balls in play that go for hits.

His skills suggest a high 3/low 4 era is what Lester should be and I'll take that as a 2/3 starter right now. He's not nearly as lost as Ortiz.

[paulftodd]

The HR ball is killing him. Through 8 games he has given up 10 HR vs 14 all of last year. LHB are far more effective against him this year, and have hit 5 HR is 60 some AB's, compared to 3 HR all of last year. His K/9 is high enough that I am not much worried at this point. Also, 1/2 of his runs allowed have come in the 5th and 6th inning, suggesting endurance may be an issue. This is not entirely unexpected given his high inning count last year, and I am sure his health is being closely monitored.

If the other starters were giving Tito innings, he could put Lester on a shorter leash, and give him the Dice-K treatment. But thats not happening.

This post has been edited by paulftodd: 16 May 2009 - 12:43 AM

[Eric Van]

Prior to last year Lester had only faced one batter the 4th time around the lineup (and given up a double). So his 2008 splits are what's relevant:

Lester 2008

BFP	PA	BA	OBP	SA
1st	303	.245	.316	.352
2nd	297	.260	.328	.374
3rd	233	.250	.309	.368
4th	41	.333	.366	.436

It's a small sample, but given that guys are generally only allowed to go through the lineup a fourth time when they're pitching well, you would think that you'd have to be confident that he was cruising before allowing him to face guys the fourth time.

As a general rule, if he'd just given up a smoked 2-RBI single to a guy he had struck out twice previously, you would have to think it wasn't smart to give a guy who was already 2/3, HR against him a fourth shot.

(I haven't looked at the game thread but I'm sure a lot of folks felt this way before the fact, even without knowledge of the above splits. It's insane to think that asking the bullpen to get one extra out was going to have any impact on the rest of the series and insane to think that Ramirez, who was warm, would not have been a better option to get the last out.)

Incidentally, he is now in his career (including postseason) .333 / .362 / .511 allowed when facing guys the fourth time.

[roundegotrip]

Maybe one of the pitchfx guys can back me up on this (or debunk me), but it seems like while his cutter and curve have been good for him, hitters have been all over his 4-seamer and 2-seamer. Seems like a lot of his walks come on fastballs, as well.

[deconstruction]

Maybe one of the pitchfx guys can back me up on this (or debunk me), but it seems like while his cutter and curve have been good for him, hitters have been all over his 4-seamer and 2-seamer. Seems like a lot of his walks come on fastballs, as well.

I'd say you're right. Both homers, all the walks, and both doubles on the four-seamer. Three Ks on the curve. Two singles and line outs on the two-seamer, but he also wasn't throwing it or the cutter consistently for strikes. Cutter missing down and in to RH batters.

[Sprowl]

I'd say you're right. Both homers, all the walks, and both doubles on the four-seamer. Three Ks on the curve. Two singles and line outs on the two-seamer, but he also wasn't throwing it or the cutter consistently for strikes. Cutter missing down and in to RH batters.

Lester's problems have been gopheritis and the big inning, usually coinciding, and the fastball does seem to be most often to blame. The same was true of Lester's first two starts against the Rays and A's, when he had troubles with his fastballs. Tampa LHBs hammered his sinker during the miserable fifth inning, by which time his top velocity had declined from to 92; Oakland LHBs hammered his 4-seamer during the wretched second. Both LHB and RHB are slugging over .500 against him, and the LHB seem to be catching up to his fastballs too easily. This season he has suffered in matchups with Crawford, Cust, Damon, Giambi, Ichiro, and Iwamura.

Lester has had trouble commanding both fastballs. He’s not wild as he was when he first came up from the minors, when he was unable to find the strike zone. Control isn’t his problem: he has been wild in the strike zone, and too often his fastball winds up in the middle of the plate, not on the edges. He has grooved too many pitches this season, and last year’s low HR/FB% has jumped and his flyball ratio has gone up as well, so more of Lester's pitches are getting hit in the air, and they are going farther than last year.

[yecul]

SJH is soooo ahead of his time: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=44026

[mabrowndog]

I agree with all the observations and trends noted here so far, but last night Lester was his own worst enemy off the mound. If he throws to second on that one-out come-backer instead of brain-farting and tossing to first, they likely get the inning-ending DP and he gets through the 6th unscathed before turning things over to the pen with a 4-1 lead. Instead, it's 2nd and 3rd with two down and Gutierrez's single and Ichiro's HR knock him out of the game and bring Seattle back from the dead.

If he makes the play and racks the win having allowed just the solo shot to Suzuki, his ERA drops from 6.31 to 5.70 and we're at least delaying this conversation.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: 16 May 2009 - 07:23 AM

[HighHeat]

You're absolutely right, Mark, but how in the hell does Tito leave him in there to face Ichiro in that situation?

A terrible, terrible, non-move and truly infuriating.

[yecul]

That is true, but as you said it'd be due to masking the underlying problems rather than highlighting them. That said:

1st - single + bb
2nd - double + bb
4th - double + bb
5th - hr

Even minus the 6th he was still giving up base runners and extra bases.

Of course, we can say the same about Tek being masked by the failure of others, but then again, 1. they had expectations to fail from whereas no one thought he'd do anything and 2. that's for another thread:

April - 16g - .250/.348/.533
May - 11g - .190/.255/.262 (0-4 last night)

This post has been edited by yecul: 16 May 2009 - 08:36 AM

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

It's a small sample, but given that guys are generally only allowed to go through the lineup a fourth time when they're pitching well, you would think that you'd have to be confident that he was cruising before allowing him to face guys the fourth time.

As Yecul's post suggests, no one would describe Lester as "cruising" prior to the big inning last night. He wasn't getting the lineup a fourth time to close out a CG, he was getting it in the sixth inning. Tito can treat that symptom by yanking him faster next time, but that leaves us with Lester circa 2007, a five-inning pitcher who consistently throws 15-20 pitches per inning with a high WHIP. He can still be a useful part of a rotation, but I'm going to guess that's not what Theo thought he was buying when he signed Lester to the extension.

Edit--just to add, I'm not yet all that concerned about Lester over the long haul--his stuff looks good to my untrained eyes--but the Bad Luck argument argument is losing its persuasiveness, and he's damned frustrating to watch.

This post has been edited by P'tucket, rhymes with...: 16 May 2009 - 09:05 AM

[rembrat]

He's pitching a lot better than his nominal ERA line but he's also had some lapses in concentration and been unlucky and also pitching up and out over the plate too much. Of course, he was outperforming his skills last year so a regression was highly likely for 2009. Needs to get more groundballs and his luck on balls in the air should improve, not to mention his % of balls in play that go for hits.

His skills suggest a high 3/low 4 era is what Lester should be and I'll take that as a 2/3 starter right now. He's not nearly as lost as Ortiz.

And here they are:

BABIP - .389
LOB% - 68.3%
HR/FB - 18.5%
FIP - 4.78

The only thing that I worry is if Lester is reverting back to being a flyball pitcher. He was at his best when he was getting groundballs. Keeping the ball on the ground and being efficient while getting those GB will cut down on those 25 pitch innings.

Once his Babip, HR/FB, and his LOB% normalize we will see a Jon Lester closer to 2008. Don't everyone start panicking now. It's May. You want these struggles to happen early on not in August.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

SJH is soooo ahead of his time: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showtopic=44026

If this really is the Verducci effect I might have expected it to show up later in the season. A guy like Carmona, for example started struggling in July and August after his Verducci year. Lester is getting killed in April and May.

I might consider giving him an extra day of rest when at all possible, but that's a band-aid on a gunshot wound. Sprowl's pitch analysis and the observations posted here make me think there's something far more sinister at work here than a mere tired arm.

EDIT: Rembrat's post is very reassuring, but the walks and the loss of control within the strike zone are yellow flags, at least.

[OttoC]

Lead-off batters in innings are slugging .912 off him this year versus .551 last year.

[Toe Nash]

http://hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=...mp;type=pitcher

Lester's HRs this year (not updated for last night yet). 3 "Just Enoughs," 4 "Plentys" and 1 in between. I would guess Ichiro's HRs last night would also be Just Enoughs.

On the other hand, 6 of his 10 HR have been solo shots and the other two were 2-run bombs. So he hasn't allowed a ton more runs than he should because of any bad luck on fly balls. But, combined with his horrific BABIP (last start when he was plunked to death) and maybe a slow hook or two, and his ERA is a lot higher than it "should" be. As Paul M noted I would expect a 4 ERA or so the rest of the way which is something you take and don't complain about too much, especially if he can regain his ace form for the postseason. If there hadn't been a bunch of clamoring about the Verducci effect, I think most SOSHers would look at the luck stats and we wouldn't have this thread.

[Rough Carrigan]

Two homer runs to Little Miss 12 Hopper is amazing. I didn't see the amica K zone thing for the first one but the second one was right down the middle. It also seemed to be *exactly* the pitch that 12 Hopper was waiting for. I think they've got a general book that high outside corner fastballs are the way to go after him. But you can't try to throw that every pitch.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Two homer runs to Little Miss 12 Hopper is amazing. I didn't see the amica K zone thing for the first one but the second one was right down the middle. It also seemed to be *exactly* the pitch that 12 Hopper was waiting for. I think they've got a general book that high outside corner fastballs are the way to go after him. But you can't try to throw that every pitch.

Three of Lester's first four pitches to him in the first inning were fastballs up in the zone. Ichiro couldn't catch up to them, but he got a pretty good look at what he was going to see later that evening.

[jippaman]

Rough Carrigan mentioned this about the Verducci effect in the other thread, so I thought it would be good to remind everyone now as an alternate take to the "early season troubles" usually associated with the large increase in innings:

Orel Hershiser said exactly the opposite during ESPN's broadcast of the first game in the Mets' new park.

He said that after a big increase in workload a pitcher's muscles have suffered a lot of microtears and the problem the next year is that 100% flexibility might not be there early in the season. He said that that's exactly what happened to him in 1989 after the Dodgers championship run in 1988. The announcer monkey specifically asked Hershiser if he thought the effect of the extra workload of one year would be felt more early or as the year went on and Hershiser quickly said 'early'. It sort of fits with Sabathia's 2008, too.

This is completely reverse logic, but his explanation makes sense to me. It may be that we see two versions of the Verducci effect: one early on related to the flexibility/inability to find a comfort level on the mound and one later in the season when fatigue is the major culprit. If true, let's hope Lester is suffering from the former rather than the latter.

[Rudy Pemberton]

What's most depressing is that the rotation, a supposed strength, has been terrible. Wakefield and Masterson have been the best, probably, and they are pitching like #4-5 starters. I'm not really buying the defense argument, since the pen has been so good. Maybe its karma, but that seems like a convenient cop-out. I get the "one bad inning" stuff for Lester, but when it's happening every single start than it seems like less luck and more of a pattern. Frankly, it's amazing that the Sox are were they are given what they've gotten from "the big 3" in the rotation, but things have gotta get better here. When you've got a 4-0 lead against teams like Seattle and LA, you've got to be able to win those games.

Maybe the Verducci effect is in play with all of these guys; in that they've had two long seasons in a row (nevermind the WBC crap for Dice-K too) and it's factoring in.

This post has been edited by Rudy Pemberton: 16 May 2009 - 01:14 PM