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5/6-5/7 Cleveland limps into Fenway


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#1 behindthepen


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 08:38 AM

Another dumbass 2 game series. We won't see CLE again until the final weekend for a 4 game series here.

CLE
Back Home! CLEVLEAND 10-17, 5-10 away at BOSTON 17-10, 10-2 at home
Wed 7:10 Masterson 2-1, 4.37 277/337/361 RHP Pavano 1-3, 7.46 318/348/523 WRKO - NESNPLUS
Thu 7:10 Wakefield 3-1, 2.91 183/290/262 LHP Laffey 2-0, 4.09 266/389/342 WRKO - NESN
Fri 7:10 TBR in town


Yes, CARL PAVANO.

Since we saw CLE last week, they lost a series at DET and split a 2-game at TOR. Rough week for the pitching staff as they allowed 34 runs in those 2 series, and had to go 12 innings to get the W on Monday. The bullpen gave up 7 runs in 2 innings last night. Ouch.

Their offense is scoring 5.4 RPG, a little above the AL avg of 5.1.
Pitching staff allowing 6.0, mainly because their bullpen has an ERA of 6.5. Ironically, their long man Vinnie Chulk has been the best guy out of the pen this season.

#2 Todd Benzinger

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Posted 06 May 2009 - 09:37 AM

Two quick notes:

Sox have a 9 game fenway win streak still alive.

And not only that, they have a 15 game win streak when Nick Green is the starting SS.

#3 John DiFool

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Posted 06 May 2009 - 09:52 AM

Another dumbass 2 game series. We won't see CLE again until the final weekend for a 4 game series here.


Anyone notice that teams no longer play even home-road season series with teams in the other league divisions? More often than not it's typically 3 home 6 away vs. one club, and 6 home 3 away against another.

#4 smastroyin


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 09:55 AM

Anyone notice that teams no longer play even home-road season series with teams in the other league divisions? More often than not it's typically 3 home 6 away vs. one club, and 6 home 3 away against another.


Yes. It has been this way since the unbalanced schedule was implemented. I do hope the players get rid of the 2 game sets in the next CBA though, I can't imagine they are any happier with them than fans are.

#5 behindthepen


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 10:00 AM

Pavano is no longer a "great" pitcher, but he's better than what his season stats indicate. His first start was AWFUL, but since then he's allowed a line of .283 /.301 /.434 and an ERA of 4.44.

Game Logs
Date Opp Rslt IP H R ER BB SO 2B HR Pit Str
9-Apr @ TEX L,8-12 1 6 9 9 3 1 1 2 39 21
14-Apr @ KCR L,3-9 6 8 4 4 0 8 3 1 80 56
19-Apr @ NYY L,3-7 6 4 1 1 1 4 1 0 89 54
25-Apr MIN L,1-7 5 11 5 5 1 3 1 1 86 58
1-May @ DET W,6-5 7.1 5 2 2 0 3 2 0 97 64


Note that he's only walked 2 batters TOTAL since his first start. Also note that his last start, which was very respectable, was @DET where Hughes and Jobba both looked like Cy Young.

His splits are all upside down this season, with an OPS vs. RHB of 1.170 and vs. LHB of .602.

#6 MentalDisabldLst


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 11:14 AM

What's this "NESNPLUS" thing that's showing the TV broadcast tonight? Is that NESN's HD channel or something? Is it any different from plain vanilla NESN?

#7 SoxScout


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 11:18 AM

What's this "NESNPLUS" thing that's showing the TV broadcast tonight? Is that NESN's HD channel or something? Is it any different from plain vanilla NESN?

Bruins are on NESN, Red Sox are on a different channel.

#8 DLew On Roids


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 11:19 AM

What's this "NESNPLUS" thing that's showing the TV broadcast tonight? Is that NESN's HD channel or something? Is it any different from plain vanilla NESN?


It's a secondary NESN feed. The regular NESN has B's vs Hurricanes.

#9 mt8thsw9th


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 11:20 AM

What's this "NESNPLUS" thing that's showing the TV broadcast tonight? Is that NESN's HD channel or something? Is it any different from plain vanilla NESN?


It's just an "extra" channel for when the Bruins are on regular NESN. It's 793 or 817 in HD on Comcast.

#10 Fishercat


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 11:37 AM

The home-road split for Laffey is rather interesting.

The surface/production stats indicate he is a very good pitcher at home and DFA material on the road. The ERA is a full three runs different over his short MLB career, the OPSa goes from .629 to .860, in the same number of innings he's allowed thirty more hits, with the XBH growing at a similar percentage rates (the homeruns moreso). Intriguingly enough though, his strikeouts and walks are not significantly different, at least not to the degree of all the other stats. He has more road strikeouts, and the rate of K/BB is only a .26 difference in the favor of the home side.

As such, his BABIP at home is nearly one-hundred points lower (.345 to .258) than his road BABIP. For whatever reason (maybe someone more familiar with Laffey or the Indians' park situation can illuminate me, he's not exactly my expertise), and it could just be luck, many more balls are falling in on the road than they are in Cleveland.

As for this particular game, I will be interested to see how he performs against a legitimate, top-tier offense. Last year, he played Minnesota (#3 in runs) twice, with one good performance and one bad performance, and Texas (#1 in runs) once, where he got absolutely bombarded. He avoided Boston, the #2 offense. He has shown success against good offenses, but it seems that more aggressive offenses (those with less of a difference between BA and OBP than other teams) have seen success, like Texas, Los Angeles, and Seattle (the three best offensive performances all came from teams who rank higher in BA than they do in OBP in relation to the rest of the American League, at least in 2008

LAA: 7th in BA, 11th in OBP
Texas: 1st in BA, 2nd in OBP
Seattle: 9th in BA, 14th in OBP

With that said, it's hardly enough for a correlation and there are some counter examples (like Kansas City, who he schooled in an early start and they were very aggressive)

The problem with analyzing Laffey seems to be small sample size, and all of this could very well even out in a year or two, but he's shown the ability to put seven-strong out there, especially when he's well rested, early in the season. Especially for a team like Boston, whose offense is rather good and patient, and he did have some good games against similar offenses in that sense, but none as good as Boston's is.

I wonder if they'll adopt a slightly more aggressive approach against a guy who doesn't strike out a lot of guys and seems to be rather hittable.

Edited by Fishercat, 06 May 2009 - 11:38 AM.


#11 Green Monster

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Posted 06 May 2009 - 11:53 AM

It's just an "extra" channel for when the Bruins are on regular NESN. It's 793 or 817 in HD on Comcast.


81 for Comcast subscribers in CT

#12 bosox79

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Posted 06 May 2009 - 02:26 PM

anyone know the channel for time warner?

#13 NDame616


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 02:28 PM

Pavano is no longer a "great" pitcher, but he's better than what his season stats indicate.


...do I ask the obvious question about when a guy with 1 winning season WAS considered a great pitcher?

#14 Red(s)HawksFan


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 02:29 PM

anyone know the channel for time warner?


Listing of NESN Plus channels by cable provider

#15 JMDurron

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Posted 06 May 2009 - 03:13 PM

I have a nasty suspicion that the NESNPlus situation will force those of us with Extra Innings to watch the game via the Cleveland feed (STO), as they (MLB Extra Innings) usually go with the away team's feed when a game is shifted off of the home team's "normal" RSN channel.

Edited by JMDurron, 06 May 2009 - 03:16 PM.


#16 Fishercat


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Posted 06 May 2009 - 09:39 PM

Yahoo has changed the probable starter for the next game to Jeremy Sowers. This would be his first start of this year, but here are his 2008 stats

22 starts
4 wins
9 losses
5.58 ERA
1.48 WHIP
39 walks
64 strikeouts

A couple other quick notes
-He's noticeably tougher on lefties than on righties
-He has a better home split than road split (not to the effect of Laffey though)
-In a couple starts against Boston, they've hit him well with 11 ER allowed in just under 17 innings

Laffey has been moved to the bullpen as a result.

#17 Resonance Wright


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Posted 07 May 2009 - 10:24 AM

At least it's one more thing for the Yankees fans. CARL PAVANO leaves town and signs with a team, and then beats the Sox.

Silver lining.

#18 behindthepen


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Posted 07 May 2009 - 03:15 PM

According to boston.com, we are TJacoby/Youks-less again tonight. One way to make another replacement level starter look great.