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Ground Out to Air Out Ratios


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#1 OttoC


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Posted 01 May 2009 - 07:13 AM

According to data from mlb.com, from 2000, on, Red Sox pitching staffs have had an overall tendency to produce more ground outs than fly outs. This season, however, they have a pronounced tendency towards fly outs. Wakefield, Delcarmen, Matsuzaka, Okajima, Saito, and Papelbon are all allowing a lower percentage of groundouts this year than they have in the past with Penny and Ramirez having their second lowest percentage of groundouts.

There are the small sample sizes to take into consideration but if what I am seeing is a trend, I don't think I like it.

Pitchers' Ground Out to Air Out Ratios
Year Red Sox Beckett Lester Matsuzaka Wakefield Penny Masterson Bowden Delcarmen Ramirez Okajima Saito Lopez Jones Van Every Papelbon
2000 1.08 --- --- --- 0.84 1.24 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2001 1.11 0.52 --- --- 1.09 1.41 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2002 1.15 0.72 --- --- 0.86 1.19 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2003 1.19 1.23 --- --- 0.92 1.13 --- --- --- --- --- --- 2.12 --- --- ---
2004 1.15 1.17 --- --- 1.16 0.96 --- --- --- --- --- --- 1.78 --- --- ---
2005 1.02 1.05 --- --- 0.94 1.15 --- --- 2.40 --- --- --- 1.85 --- --- 0.91
2006 1.12 1.10 1.01 --- 0.79 1.17 --- --- 1.22 0.94 --- 0.68 2.80 --- --- 0.75
2007 1.01 1.16 0.66 0.92 0.82 1.33 --- --- 1.07 0.61 1.09 0.92 2.13 --- --- 0.52
2008 1.07 0.94 1.37 0.79 0.71 1.63 2.03 0.22 1.24 1.23 0.64 1.00 2.53 --- --- 1.35
2009 0.88 1.08 1.60 1.00 0.56 1.09 1.40 0.33 1.00 0.76 0.33 0.23 3.75 0.83 0.00 0.24
Total 1.10 1.05 1.15 0.86 0.89 1.22 1.91 0.25 1.21 0.99 0.82 0.79 2.20 0.83 0.00 0.81

Years with Boston are in bold text.
NOTE: MLB's GOs are all ground outs not including bunts and their FOs are all flyouts not including line drives. This is assuming, of course, that the raw MLB stats for GO and AO are accurate. The numbers the give for GO/AO ratios are generally incorrect (for example, they list Matsuzaka with having 7 GO and 7 AO this year for a GO/AO ratio of 1.14).

#2 behindthepen


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Posted 02 May 2009 - 01:11 PM

Using b-ref, I prefer to look at GB/FB. 1- The outs are susceptible to BABIP fluctuations, and 2- bref includes LD in the GB/FB calculation, making it a little less subjective.

That being said, they are allowing fewer GB than the average, with a gb/fb of .70 vs. the league at .74.

I would say the biggest problem overall is the higher bb rate, at 10.5% of PA vs. the AL at 9.4%. That's a problem.

#3 paulftodd


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Posted 03 May 2009 - 01:27 AM

FB's are fine if you can keep them in the park. But as indicated by BTP the BB/9 is up significantly to 4.25 and HR/9 has increased 15% over last year, a bad combination. The higher FB rate has not translated into a lower BABIP, which is higher than last year, suggesting bad luck, bad pitching, bad OF defense, or some combination.