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The Ortiz Elephant in the Room


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#401 OttoC


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 08:30 PM

QUOTE (keving18 @ May 24 2009, 08:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think Homer Bailey could give you league average offense but I don't see Bailey as a solution. They need somebody who has a little pop and has plate discipline. That's Johnson. I'd be fine with him and would be willing to give up MDC for him but for the fact he gets hurt washing his car.
League-average is a whole lot better than they are getting now. There's a handful of pitchers in the NL who would be an improvement in the 3rd spot right now. If they trade for Johnson and he gets hurt, yet again, are they going to trade another prospect? What if they get Johnson and Ortiz recovers after a short rest?

If this is not injury-related, then I doubt the club will do anything more than drop him down in the line-up for a while unless reaching a play-off spot becomes iffy with him playing.


#402 RedOctober3829


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 08:38 PM

QUOTE (OttoC @ May 24 2009, 09:30 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
League-average is a whole lot better than they are getting now. There's a handful of pitchers in the NL who would be an improvement in the 3rd spot right now. If they trade for Johnson and he gets hurt, yet again, are they going to trade another prospect? What if they get Johnson and Ortiz recovers after a short rest?

If this is not injury-related, then I doubt the club will do anything more than drop him down in the line-up for a while unless reaching a play-off spot becomes iffy with him playing.

But a playoff spot is iffy if he is in there and struggling as much as he is. With the division as tight as it is, they can't afford to have a black hole in the middle of the order. I can't see Francona dropping Ortiz to more than 6th. I would expect him to just flip Drew and Ortiz and not affect the spots of too many players. It also keeps the L-R-L-R-R-L consistency although that isn't as important.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Drew
Youkilis
Bay
Ortiz
Lowell
Varitek
Green/Lugo/Lowrie

#403 irinmike

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Posted 24 May 2009 - 09:19 PM

Ortiz can't catch up with fastballs. I don't think that is injury related. Whats going to change that fact that? Every game there at least two fastballs that he would have crushed in the past, that are blown right by him.

#404 yecul


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 09:52 PM

He got hurt last year and drastically changed as a hitter, although remaining productive. That injury was never addressed. He is still that drastically changed hitter just much worse. If he were 100% healthy then you keep running him out there. He's not.

So you have to DL him. His injury is not something to be played through. He had months of rest and presumably rehab and is still stuck in the same spot. I'm not doctor, but playing doesn't seem to be preferable to not playing at this time -- and likely surgery is the only real option if he wants to hit baseballs in the future.

Given that they haven't DL'd him and are just now talking about dropping him in the order I am guessing that he has another 3-8 weeks before they finally figure out that he's hurt and make a decision. At least a drop in the order will be an improvement of sorts.

It's unfortunate that it's come to this. Ortiz is not at full strength. Expecting anyone to overcome that is unfair.

#405 DieHardSoxFan1


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 09:58 PM

QUOTE (irinmike @ May 24 2009, 10:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ortiz can't catch up with fastballs. I don't think that is injury related. Whats going to change that fact that? Every game there at least two fastballs that he would have crushed in the past, that are blown right by him.


While sometimes this can be taken as subjective analysis, I'm inclined to agree here. Amica pitch zone this weekend illustrated several fat pitches that Ortiz simply missed. Furthermore, the guys on TBS brought up a great point about Ortiz's struggles and its effect on Pedroia. In the 4th or 5th inning today the Sox had a man on 2nd with two down and Pedroia at the plate. Redding walked him on 4-5 pitches, clearly pitching around him to get to Ortiz. He did not throw anything close to the strike zone. Could this be the explanation for Pedroia's decreased power and inflated BB%? At some point you have to move Bay or Drew to the three slot and get it over with. I know Francona is a big proponent of the LRL lineup, so I think something like this could work:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Drew
Youkilis
Bay
Ortiz
Lowell
Tek
The Suck

Edited by DieHardSoxFan1, 24 May 2009 - 10:00 PM.


#406 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 10:12 PM

QUOTE
Johnson's last two full seasons at first yielded UZR's of 10.9 and 2.9. Last year, in 35 games, he had a UZR of 2.3. In his previous six years, he's had a negative UZR only once.(in 2003 in only 60 games) That lousy range YTD could be either a small sample size or maybe he has lost a step.


Certainly true (although you have to go back pretty darn far to get two full seasons of Nick Johnson), yet also true of Lowell. Lowell was, by UZR, the #3 defensive 3B in the league last year. Now, he's coming off a major injury which changes things...but that also goes for Johnson. Ultimately, I wonder how the Sox evaluate Lowell's defense, as I'm not sure removing him from 3B to any serious extent is a priority at all. Ideally, a replacement can play 1B and OF and give lots of guys rest. I really do think that Papi replacement (once we even get to that point) is going to be Kotsay / Baldelli, which will likely dissapoint most everyone here.

#407 snowmanny

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Posted 24 May 2009 - 10:15 PM

I am confused as to the point of moving him down in the order. Once it is decided that he is no longer David Ortiz, or no longer even an .800 OPS guy,
he should be dropped from the line-up altogether. Why move him to sixth? How many runs does it save you to have him there instead of third? And how many runs does it cost you to bat him sixth instead of Bailey or Baldelli or whomever?

This is not a Centerfielder or a Shortstop that is irreplaceable defensively and gets dropped in the order. This is a DH.

I don't believe the next step is dropping him in the order. I believe the next step is the DL, followed by a rehab stint.

#408 jtn46


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 10:19 PM

Lineup changes are completely realistic. If he's hurt, a DL stint is completely realistic. A trade for his replacement while he's healthy is not realistic.

Ortiz will get all season to work it out, if that's what it takes, and it's the right approach. If Ortiz is done, the FO has to make damn sure, because if he's not done, he's probably one of the 10 best hitters in baseball.

#409 joyofsox


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 11:18 PM

Did that radio interview air? Any news to report?


#410 NDame616


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Posted 24 May 2009 - 11:22 PM

The way the Sox lineup is constructed, I think moving him to 6th could actually put him in more high leverage situations where he leaves more men on and fails to get more RBIs.

Look at the OBP is the three guys ahea of him batting 3rd:

SS position: ~.350
Ellsbury: .330
Pedroia: .414

And the OBP of the three guys (probably) ahead of him in the 6th hole:
Drew .368
Youkilis: .500 (will regress to around .400)
Bay .419

Moving him to 6th is putting him behind two MVP candidates who are raking and a solid hitter in Drew. At #3, he was behind subpar OBP in the SS slot and Ellsbury.

I don't think we want our worse producing hitter this year to hit behind the heart of our order. If we want to "hide" Ortiz somewhere int he lineup to let him collect his bearings, it'll be at the #8 slot...which won't happen of course. If you think a lineup with the current David Ortiz batting 6th is a good idea, then you shoudl have no problem with Nick Green or Julio Lugo out there.

However, if it's just to take him out of the pressure situations in the 3 slot that's one thing. But if we think moving him to 6th will take him out of high leverage situations that's a hard sell.

#411 reggiecleveland


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Posted 25 May 2009 - 12:45 AM

It has been well documented in this thread how little batting order matters. I suppose if he hits 6th there is a chance somebody else better may get an extra at bat at the end of a game that would have been his. Perhaps JD would have more of an effect on a manager bringing in a righty to pitch Dusty and Youks if the one legit LH bat was between them. Maybe.

The significance of him being dropped in the order is that it demonstrates the end of his bulletproof status. The move supports the idea that changing something may help him relax, think differently, or something, to hit better. But it also would be a signal that he in not going to stay in the lineup forever if he can't hit anymore.

Now, if the lineup change does happen this would fit Tito's ability at handling players skillfully. Tito is not the player loving wimp he is sometimes portrayed as around here. He is smart enough to be patient. Ortiz got some time off, got standing ovations, hit a homer, etc. Then he continued to suck. If, the next move is a drop in the order Papi probably realizes the next step is hitting the ball or a merciful trip to the DL.

Edited by reggiecleveland, 25 May 2009 - 12:47 AM.


#412 Eric Van


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Posted 25 May 2009 - 01:50 AM

QUOTE (NDame616 @ May 24 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The way the Sox lineup is constructed, I think moving him to 6th could actually put him in more high leverage situations where he leaves more men on and fails to get more RBIs.

Look at the OBP is the three guys ahea of him batting 3rd:

SS position: ~.350
Ellsbury: .330
Pedroia: .414

And the OBP of the three guys (probably) ahead of him in the 6th hole:
Drew .368
Youkilis: .500 (will regress to around .400)
Bay .419

Moving him to 6th is putting him behind two MVP candidates who are raking and a solid hitter in Drew. At #3, he was behind subpar OBP in the SS slot and Ellsbury.

I don't think we want our worse producing hitter this year to hit behind the heart of our order. If we want to "hide" Ortiz somewhere int he lineup to let him collect his bearings, it'll be at the #8 slot...which won't happen of course. If you think a lineup with the current David Ortiz batting 6th is a good idea, then you shoudl have no problem with Nick Green or Julio Lugo out there.

However, if it's just to take him out of the pressure situations in the 3 slot that's one thing. But if we think moving him to 6th will take him out of high leverage situations that's a hard sell.

The number of RBI opportunities you provide the teammates who follow you in the order is not simply a function of your OBP, or even your OBP with HR, GDP, and CS deducted. It's also an inverse function of your ability to knock your teammates in yourself. I haven't calculated the numbers for this year (I'll try to do so by tomorrow), but I don't think the table-setting numbers for Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Green / Lugo are dramatically less than those for Bay, Youkilis, and Drew.

In the meantime, though, Drew in the 3 hole would provide a heck of a lot more RBI opportunities for Youkilis and Bay then Ortiz has been.

One last note: it's absolutely true that batting order matters far less than most people think, so that the difference between the optimum lineup and the lousy one that a John McNamara-level manager might concoct (as in, hey, I think I'll bat the best hitter in baseball right after the worst two hitters on the team and before the next two worst) might be 10 runs. But 10 runs is a win. Teams pay millions of dollars in salary to upgrade a position by 10 runs. Most trading-deadline deals do not amount to 10-run upgrades. A really good way to win a pennant is to grab a whole bunch of 5- and 10-run upgrades that are there for the taking (properly aggressive baserunning is another).

Edited by Eric Van, 25 May 2009 - 01:57 AM.


#413 keving18

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Posted 25 May 2009 - 09:01 AM

Agreed that Drew should be moved up. But that means another lefthanded bat absolutely has to be found or Drew should bat cleanup, with Youks hitting third. Lowell is already huitting into enough double plays without hitting behind another two righties.

#414 opes


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Posted 25 May 2009 - 12:10 PM

As per the Globe:

MINNEAPOLIS - We'll find out more in a while when we meet with Terry Francona, but David Ortiz is not in the lineup just posted by the Red Sox.

Ellsbury-CF
Pedroia-2B
Youkilis-3B
Bay-LF
Lowell-DH
Baldelli-RF
Varitek-C
Bailey-1B
Lugo-SS
Penny-SP


#415 Carl Everetts Therapist


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Posted 25 May 2009 - 01:12 PM

I'll agree that over the course of the season lineup construction matters little. Though I think when you have a player slumping as bad as Papi situationally moving him down is smart. I mean the guy left 12 runners on base in one game....

I think the stats for lineup construction include a whole season which includes players peaks and valleys, but if you know before hand of the significant valley , I think you can safely say moving in a productive hitter would be a benefit on a game to game basis. Ithink Youks batting third and Bay fifth is the propper lineup now then drew and Lowell. Papi could bat 8th and maybe relax a bit. If your gonna move him down, why not move him all the way down instead of just sliding him to 5.... If his confidence is the reason you aren't removing him from the three spot. then a move to 5th or 8th shouldn't make a difference. If he's going to be pissed he'll be pissed either way.
I don't think his confidence can get much lower as it is regardless.

Tito does have some precidence for batting hitters he likes lower in the order (Mueller, Varitek) ... I remeber when Tito was so in love with Tek he batted him 3 and 4 a couple times. I think moveing Papi to a place where you can just forget about him is the best thing for him.

Right now every story, every post game, every highlighted segment of whose hot and whose not is focused on Papi. You have people giving him advice from John Kruk and Joe Morgan to Kevin Millar.... I think its time Papi does what ever he can to take the microscope off himself. Tito for that matter too...

CET

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 25 May 2009 - 01:16 PM.


#416 opes


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 10:32 AM

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=4204490

QUOTE
Francona said Ortiz is healthy and described his slump as "normal hitters' woes."



"Normal hitters woes"?? Can anyone give me an example he's talking about? In what world is this slump "Normal"?
As much as it hurts me to say, I dont think Papi can recover from this season. It would be more productive to sit him for a month than to watch him surpass Hafner '08. Its obvious to me that at this point Papi is mind-fucking himself with pressure to preform.


#417 yecul


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 10:38 AM

I would be far less concerned if it were an injury. At least that is an acute reason to explain the struggles. If he's healthy then it could be any number of things, many of which will plague him going forward. An injury would leave the hope of improvement (if not this year, then next) whereas a cliff fall leaves a lot less.

#418 smastroyin


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 10:42 AM

From the beginning I've thought it was eyesight and nothing has really changed my mind. People talk about getting him some glasses or something but that's probably not enough. I am reminded of the fall of Jim Rice, whose peak was not quite as good (no walks), but he went from prodigious HR hitting to modifying his game around more average and some walks in 86, and then fell off a cliff. The "slow bat" seems more of an issue with picking up the ball, and the way he guesses wrong so often is just an indicator that something is fucking with his ability to even be on the same plane as the ball. It's not as if he is having trouble squaring the ball, he is out and out missing very often. Sad to watch.

That said, some other guys of his ilk (notably Delgado) have looked dead and come back, but I'm not really a fan of the "normal hitter's struggles" line.

#419 Foulkey Reese


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 11:55 AM

QUOTE (SoxScout @ May 24 2009, 07:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
WHDH is going to air in interview with Ortiz tonight in which he says he came back from the wrist injury too soon last year and he is now in pain and the wrist is clicking again.

We ever hear anything more on this?

#420 dcmissle


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:00 PM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ May 26 2009, 11:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
From the beginning I've thought it was eyesight and nothing has really changed my mind. People talk about getting him some glasses or something but that's probably not enough. I am reminded of the fall of Jim Rice, whose peak was not quite as good (no walks), but he went from prodigious HR hitting to modifying his game around more average and some walks in 86, and then fell off a cliff. The "slow bat" seems more of an issue with picking up the ball, and the way he guesses wrong so often is just an indicator that something is fucking with his ability to even be on the same plane as the ball. It's not as if he is having trouble squaring the ball, he is out and out missing very often. Sad to watch.

That said, some other guys of his ilk (notably Delgado) have looked dead and come back, but I'm not really a fan of the "normal hitter's struggles" line.


Quite possible, and Papi should at least call Cristian Guzman, who had LASIK in 2006:

http://www.baseball-...guzmacr01.shtml

#421 xjack


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:03 PM

QUOTE (smastroyin @ May 26 2009, 11:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
From the beginning I've thought it was eyesight and nothing has really changed my mind. People talk about getting him some glasses or something but that's probably not enough. I am reminded of the fall of Jim Rice, whose peak was not quite as good (no walks), but he went from prodigious HR hitting to modifying his game around more average and some walks in 86, and then fell off a cliff.

As I recall, Rice simply refused to wear glasses or contact lenses -- it wasn't a missed diagnosis. With Ortiz, this isn't him being stubborn. If someone told Papi he'd hit if he wore glasses or lenses, he'd do it in an instant. And given how much of an investment the Sox make in training and medical care, does anyone really think the Sox haven't had his eyes checked out?

I'm still in the camp that says this is largely in his head. His bat is slow because he's tense -- sort of like what happened to Mike Lowell a few years ago. Of course, that doesn't mean he's sure to get better. We could be witnessing the first case of Blass-Ankiel-Sax syndrome for hitters.

#422 smastroyin


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:12 PM

QUOTE (xjack @ May 26 2009, 01:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
As I recall, Rice simply refused to wear glasses or contact lenses -- it wasn't a missed diagnosis. With Ortiz, this isn't him being stubborn. If someone told Papi he'd hit if he wore glasses or lenses, he'd do it in an instant. And given how much of an investment the Sox make in training and medical care, does anyone really think the Sox haven't had his eyes checked out?


You're missing my point, lenses don't correct for all vision problems especially in reaction times of the muscles and the way objects are tracked in motion, they just change focus.

I don't think Rice wearing contact lenses would have changed his fate much, in other words, and I never have. Ortiz may have similar issues. He may also have issues with overall reaction time and with generating power. He is getting older, this is an inexorable problem. He converted some 25 HR into 2B from 2006 to 2007 and in 2008 hit less of both (his 54 HR in 2006 equalled his XBH output of 2008). It's not a new thing and other than the wrist there is no trauma to blame.

And I doubt he would be the first case of the syndrome, I know why we are so focused on him, but he is hardly the first guy to fall off (though the depths of his falling may exceed others) a cliff. I guess maybe people just want to conveniently point to steroids for all those other guys, but Ortiz is hardly unique.

#423 Ananti


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:16 PM

Well if you're implying that it's an uncorrectable issue having to do with deterioration of physical skills due to aging, then just say that. Saying it's a "vision problem" implies that it can be corrected with glasses or lasik.

If it's uncorrectable, then he's cooked.

#424 smastroyin


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:19 PM

QUOTE (Ananti @ May 26 2009, 01:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Well if you're implying that it's an uncorrectable issue having to do with deterioration of physical skills due to aging, then just say that. Saying it's a "vision problem" implies that it can be corrected with glasses or lasik.

If it's uncorrectable, then he's cooked.


No it doesn't. There are all kinds of physical problems. Some can be repaired and some can't. How specifying where I think the problem is isn't a subject of discussion is beyond me, but if you want to apply for the position of "guy who decides what is worthy of discussion" then feel free.

#425 smastroyin


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:26 PM

From lurker iayork:

QUOTE
After the 2007 season, the video of team visiting the White House showed Ortiz wearing glasses - not sunglasses, standard-looking spectacles
(e.g. ).

No one commented on this and I just assumed everyone knew about it except me. Was that the only time he was seen wearing glasses?


#426 yecul


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:40 PM


Edited by yecul, 26 May 2009 - 12:41 PM.


#427 Fratboy


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:47 PM

There's also a picture floating around of him in Japan in 2008 wearing the same glasses.



#428 yecul


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 12:51 PM

I recall that picture.

So the eyesight is the problem? Not in '07 or '08, but now in '09? Do we know that his prescription has changed? His frames obviously haven't in the few images we have.

Right now this just seems like one more thing to throw into the bag of reasons. Possible, but I find it hard to be definitive about anything unless someone says everything is the problem. That I would buy.

#429 Bucknahs Bum Ankle


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 01:06 PM

Perhaps he already wears contacts during games?

#430 E5 Yaz


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 01:15 PM

QUOTE (yecul @ May 26 2009, 06:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Right now this just seems like one more thing to throw into the bag of reasons. Possible, but I find it hard to be definitive about anything unless someone says everything is the problem. That I would buy.


Eyesight, slower reaction time, loss of demonstable power, nagging aftereffects of injuries ... he's getting older. This goes to the whole "Is 35 the new 40?" argument, at least as far as everyday players are concerned. Guys such as Ibanez might be proving to be the exception to the rule.

The other question I have is whether being a DH has had an effect on his abilities. Would an Ortiz who was still a 1B, or even split the games between 1B and DH, been able to focus on his defense and allow the hitting to come back? People keep tossing out Delgado as a comp; but the primary difference is that Delgado still played in the field during his half-season slump. He stayed somewhat active and contributing during the down time.

I'm trying to think of a top-flight DH who has gone through this sort of slump, a Baines or an Edgar Martinez, and ascertain how easily they came back into form.

#431 TFisNEXT


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 01:19 PM

QUOTE (E5 Yaz @ May 26 2009, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'm trying to think of a top-flight DH who has gone through this sort of slump, a Baines or an Edgar Martinez, and ascertain how easily they came back into form.



Jason Giambi's injury riddled and parasite filled 2004 season? He was around the same age as Ortiz is now. He posted an OPS above 970 each of the next two seasons.

#432 E5 Yaz


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 01:25 PM

QUOTE (TFisNEXT @ May 26 2009, 06:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Jason Giambi's injury riddled and parasite filled 2004 season? He was around the same age as Ortiz is now. He posted an OPS above 970 each of the next two seasons.


Was that before or after he was detoxing? Giambi was 33 at the time, although a quick check shows he played more games at 1B than as a DH that year. Granted, though, there are some similiarities, so there might be a precedent for a turnaround.

#433 Shelterdog


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 01:32 PM

QUOTE (TFisNEXT @ May 26 2009, 02:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Jason Giambi's injury riddled and parasite filled 2004 season? He was around the same age as Ortiz is now. He posted an OPS above 970 each of the next two seasons.


Frank Thomas - 952 ops in 2003 in 153 games (124 at DH, 27 at 1b, 2 not listed on BP) after a 758 in 20 games in 01 and a 834 in 2002 in 148 games. (You could probably also count his 926 in 137 games in 2006 (all at DH); he'd hit ok but been injured a lot in 2004 and 2005).

#434 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 01:35 PM

QUOTE (E5 Yaz @ May 26 2009, 02:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Was that before or after he was detoxing? Giambi was 33 at the time, although a quick check shows he played more games at 1B than as a DH that year. Granted, though, there are some similiarities, so there might be a precedent for a turnaround.


Perhaps, but the circumstances could be vastly different. Giambi was an STD user for sure. His down season was likely due to stopping the PEDs and dealing with the aftermath. If Papi was clean (and I don't know if he was or not), then his decline isn't really comperable to Giambi's. And hoping for a similar turn around might be wishcasting. If Giambi's decline was due to stopping the PED's, then he wasn't suffering from a serious degredation of his body. He was suffering from a lack of chemical enhancement which he was able to adjust to. If Papi was clean and is suffering from his body breaking down, I don't think that's something he can adjust to and return to even a shadow of his former self.

#435 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 26 May 2009 - 02:54 PM

Baseball Prospectus is running a "BP Idol" thing right now, where you vote for the best articles, etc. Not very interesting as a contest, but it did make me read an interesting article from one Brittany Ghiroli, who analyzes Ortiz's groundball rates and comes to the conclusion (somewhat supported by some interesting stats that may be correlative or may just be coincidence) that Ortiz's lack of groundballs is what is contributing to his power loss.

It's worth reading and can be found here.

#436 OttoC


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 04:24 PM

QUOTE (MyDaughterLovesTomGordon @ May 26 2009, 03:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
...that Ortiz's lack of groundballs is what is contributing to his power loss.

It's worth reading and can be found here.
Actually, Ortiz has hit into a higher percentage of ground outs since his sit-down than he did in his first 34 games this season. I've been tracking Ortiz's performance this season and the following table shows the breakdown divided into distinct levels of performance.

Game PA H BB/HP Fly Outs Pop Outs Liner Inf Ground outs K Comments
1-2 8 2 2 3 0 0 0 1
3-12 47 6 4 10 6 0 8 13 fly outs include one line drive to outfielder
13-21 42 12 2 9 5 1 6 7
22-34 60 7 15 15 3 0 11 9 fly outs include three line drive to outfielders
35-40 26 3 2 2 0 1 7 11 one of those fly outs was really a pop out to an outfielder
Fly outs include sacrifice flies.

It strikes me that Ortiz is hitting under or over a lot of pitches, and since hitting over a ball leads to ground balls and top-spin line drives, I'm not sure how an increase in ground balls leads to more home runs. Because phenomena are noted, that does not means there is a cause-and-effect. I'd need to see a full-blown study with many types of hitters before I sign on to Ghiroli's premise.

#437 xjack


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 05:19 PM

QUOTE (Bucknahs Bum Ankle @ May 26 2009, 02:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Perhaps he already wears contacts during games?

I just find it impossible to believe that A) Papi knows his vision is subpar but refuses to wear contacts, have Lasik, or get glasses or B) that the Red Sox would let a vision problem go undiagnosed.

#438 smastroyin


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Posted 26 May 2009 - 06:24 PM

QUOTE (xjack @ May 26 2009, 06:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I just find it impossible to believe that A) Papi knows his vision is subpar but refuses to wear contacts, have Lasik, or get glasses or B) that the Red Sox would let a vision problem go undiagnosed.


Who said it was undiagnosed or untreated? Some of these things are not treatable, and some of them are not clear trauma or anything like that, just the degeneration from superhuman levels to levels that the rest of us have. How do you think the guy got to be one of the best hitters in the world in the first place?




#439 sachilles


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 12:21 PM

His first couple of at bats last night weren't too bad. Last one, I think he was trying for the fences and ended up looking foolish.

#440 Ananti


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 09:18 PM

Since the "he just need to hit a homerun and he'll turn it around" game.

He's 2 for 23 with 1 extra base hit and 2 walks.

.087/.174/.130

DL him, please, it's long past pathetic at this point.

Edited by Ananti, 27 May 2009 - 10:17 PM.


#441 I am an Idiot


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:27 PM

Ortiz drinks. I was at an event that he was at within the past month, and he spent $1200 on booze for a table of six, and proceeded to go to "the club" afterwards. Take it for what it is worth, but when you have a game the following afternoon, you do not spend two hundred dollars a person on booze, invite people to a club afterwards, and then claim to the people at the table that "four tylenol and two bottles of water" will save you come the following morning. Sorry. If you can't do your job, grab pine. I get a lot less money to act responsibly.

#442 Bowlerman9


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:34 PM

QUOTE (I am an Idiot @ May 27 2009, 11:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ortiz drinks. I was at an event that he was at within the past month, and he spent $1200 on booze for a table of six, and proceeded to go to "the club" afterwards. Take it for what it is worth, but when you have a game the following afternoon, you do not spend two hundred dollars a person on booze, invite people to a club afterwards, and then claim to the people at the table that "four tylenol and two bottles of water" will save you come the following morning. Sorry. If you can't do your job, grab pine. I get a lot less money to act responsibly.


Unless he is doing this an hour before each and every game, his problems are a lot deeper than this.

#443 RedOctober3829


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:37 PM

QUOTE (I am an Idiot @ May 27 2009, 11:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Ortiz drinks. I was at an event that he was at within the past month, and he spent $1200 on booze for a table of six, and proceeded to go to "the club" afterwards. Take it for what it is worth, but when you have a game the following afternoon, you do not spend two hundred dollars a person on booze, invite people to a club afterwards, and then claim to the people at the table that "four tylenol and two bottles of water" will save you come the following morning. Sorry. If you can't do your job, grab pine. I get a lot less money to act responsibly.


They are baseball players man. They go out and have a few beers after many games. Just because he is spending money on booze or going to the club doesn't make him miss 88 MPH fastballs game after game. His bat is much slower and he isn't seeing the ball at all. Balls he would have hit out of the park 2 years ago are falling at the warning track. He's either injured and being a dick and not sitting out or he's in a steady decline.

#444 I am an Idiot


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:43 PM

QUOTE (RedOctober3829 @ May 27 2009, 11:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
They are baseball players man. They go out and have a few beers after many games. Just because he is spending money on booze or going to the club doesn't make him miss 88 MPH fastballs game after game. His bat is much slower and he isn't seeing the ball at all. Balls he would have hit out of the park 2 years ago are falling at the warning track. He's either injured and being a dick and not sitting out or he's in a steady decline.


I get what you are saying, but I guess the point of it all is, if I am being paid to hit said 88 mph fastballs into the 15th row, and I am failing to do so on a historical level, I would not be out on the town celebrating how awesome I am and toasting to things I did five years ago. My own personal opinion is that he is in decline, or just not giving a damn. The guy, close up, did not seem out of shape in the least bit (although, "out of shape" is a relative term when it comes to professional athletes, and I concede this point).

#445 NomarRS05

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:44 PM

He's not even making pitchers throw anything but fastballs anymore. It seems that in every single at bat there is at least one meatball that Ortiz simply fails to catch up to.

Before tonight's 0-4 performance Ortiz had a .157 avg and a .593 OPS in the month of May. Tito can't just keep plugging him in while he continues to kill the offense. Any warm body could contribute more out of the DH spot. I think a DL stint followed by some time in AAA or even AA to rebuild his confidence might be the best thing right now, both for him and for the team.

Edited by NomarRS05, 27 May 2009 - 10:48 PM.


#446 RingoOSU


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:45 PM

QUOTE (I am an Idiot @ May 27 2009, 10:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I get what you are saying, but I guess the point of it all is, if I am being paid to hit said 88 mph fastballs into the 15th row, and I am failing to do so on a historical level, I would not be out on the town celebrating how awesome I am and toasting to things I did five years ago. My own personal opinion is that he is in decline, or just not giving a damn. The guy, close up, did not seem out of shape in the least bit (although, "out of shape" is a relative term when it comes to professional athletes, and I concede this point).

People keep saying this is bothering Ortiz, but is it really? He gets paid either way, and so far, the only consequences is he bats lower in the order and has to take 3 days off. He knows better than any of us, that he probably still has a job in Boston throughout 2009.

#447 Philip Jeff Frye


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:47 PM

QUOTE (I am an Idiot @ May 27 2009, 11:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I get what you are saying, but I guess the point of it all is, if I am being paid to hit said 88 mph fastballs into the 15th row, and I am failing to do so on a historical level, I would not be out on the town celebrating how awesome I am and toasting to things I did five years ago. My own personal opinion is that he is in decline, or just not giving a damn. The guy, close up, did not seem out of shape in the least bit (although, "out of shape" is a relative term when it comes to professional athletes, and I concede this point).

Wow, a couple of months of shitty performance and Ortiz suddenly is Manny Jr.

We can argue about what's wrong here and what the Red Sox should do about it til we're blue in the face, but can we leave crap like this out?

#448 NomarRS05

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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:47 PM

QUOTE (RingoOSU @ May 27 2009, 11:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
People keep saying this is bothering Ortiz, but is it really? He gets paid either way, and so far, the only consequences is he bats lower in the order and has to take 3 days off. He knows better than any of us, that he probably still has a job in Boston throughout 2009.


Judging by his reactions after each failed at bat, it appears that this is bothering Ortiz an awful lot. I doubt it's a lack of effort that's causing him to miss straight 89 MPH fastballs down the heart of the plate.

#449 RingoOSU


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 10:50 PM

QUOTE (NomarRS05 @ May 27 2009, 10:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Judging by his reactions after each failed at bat, it appears that this is bothering Ortiz an awful lot. I doubt it's a lack of effort that's causing him to miss straight 89 MPH fastballs down the heart of the plate.

Oh, don't get me wrong, he's trying. But I just wonder how much he dwells on it when he goes home, or if he shakes it off.

#450 RedOctober3829


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Posted 27 May 2009 - 11:01 PM

QUOTE (RingoOSU @ May 27 2009, 11:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Oh, don't get me wrong, he's trying. But I just wonder how much he dwells on it when he goes home, or if he shakes it off.

As bad as he is struggling, dwelling on things are just going to make it worse. He cares so much that it is a detriment to let it eat at him at night although I'm sure it does. He has to shake it off and continue working his ass off to get back to respectability. They can keep saying he's close, but he's nowhere near being able to make a positive impact. Pitchers can throw batting practice slop up there now and get him out. 88 MPH fastballs down the middle are getting popped up or swung and missed. It's truly sad to see this because he's been my favorite player during this 6 year run.