647 replies to this topic

[MoGator71]

Don't you think that's a major difference though?

We're not as much worried about Ortiz's batting average or on base, we're worried he's not hitting for power. Manny in 2005 was much more productive (and the discussion was more "When is Manny going to bounce back" not "Is Manny cooked?")

Yeah, with Manny the entire reason for optimism was that he was still hitting for power. I'm not seeing anything like that from Ortiz. The walks? Sure, he's still got a decent eye and pitchers aren't quite ready to groove one because, well, he's David Ortiz. But he's not even hitting balls hard on a regular basis; his fly to right yesterday might be as close as he's come to hitting a HR.

What happens when pitchers decide they'd rather take their chances with Ortiz than pitch to Youk or Bay with men on?

[kozaitis]

Yeah, with Manny the entire reason for optimism was that he was still hitting for power. I'm not seeing anything like that from Ortiz. The walks? Sure, he's still got a decent eye and pitchers aren't quite ready to groove one because, well, he's David Ortiz. But he's not even hitting balls hard on a regular basis; his fly to right yesterday might be as close as he's come to hitting a HR.

What happens when pitchers decide they'd rather take their chances with Ortiz than pitch to Youk or Bay with men on?

I haven't looked at the stats, but everytime I see Papi walk nowadays, I'm reminded on Giambi the Yankee.

[OttoC]

What happens when pitchers decide they'd rather take their chances with Ortiz than pitch to Youk or Bay with men on?

Given that Bay currently has an 1.121 OPS and Youkilis, 1.224, and they bat after Ortiz in the line-up? What's going to change? Ortiz is walking slightly less frequently this year (.1377 BB/PA) than in previous years with Boston (.1432 BB/PA, 2003-08).

[JimBoSox9]

Given that Bay currently has an 1.121 OPS and Youkilis, 1.224, and they bat after Ortiz in the line-up? What's going to change? Ortiz is walking slightly less frequently this year (.1377 BB/PA) than in previous years with Boston (.1432 BB/PA, 2003-08).

I think his point was not that Youks and Bay will be pitched around, but that Ortiz will be given an Ellsbury-esque diet of challenge pitches, when pitchers stop being afraid of his power, and his walk rate will fall off a cliff.

(This is not an agreement or disagreement with above statements)

[thisyearisthe]

Maybe this has already been covered, but doesn't it seem obvious that Manny's ability to continue producing through his 30's has been chemically-enhanced?

Not to say Ortiz isn't also a juicer, but I've never had any suspicions about him.

Besides which, what is the point of comparison?

My guess would be he's playing in pain and covering it up. Not sure why he would do that.

[irinmike]

Does it really matter why its happening with Ortiz. Fact is it is happening and its time to move him down in the lineup.

[MoGator71]

I think his point was not that Youks and Bay will be pitched around, but that Ortiz will be given an Ellsbury-esque diet of challenge pitches, when pitchers stop being afraid of his power, and his walk rate will fall off a cliff.

(This is not an agreement or disagreement with above statements)

Yeah, that's what I was getting at exactly. The first clue I imagine will be managers going away from the extreme Ortiz shift and just playing him like a normal pull LHH (without the 2Bman in shallow RF). Right now he's still being shifted and still being pitched to carefully. I'm interested to see when that changes and how Ortiz and the Sox respond.

[yep]

Does it really matter why its happening with Ortiz. Fact is it is happening and its time to move him down in the lineup.

A lineup move is almost irrelevant in terms of wins and losses.

It might be time to look for a new DH.

[OttoC]

A lineup move is almost irrelevant in terms of wins and losses.

It might be time to look for a new DH.

It's not in terms of wins and losses but whether a move down in the order might let Ortiz relax and find his batting stroke/timing again.

[yep]

It's not in terms of wins and losses but whether a move down in the order might let Ortiz relax and find his batting stroke/timing again.

I'm not arguing, just asking: is there any reason to believe that actually works?

Is batting in the order surrounded by Lugo and Varitek really "relaxing" for a superstar DH making $12m/year, or is it more pressure to "earn his spot"? Or does a guy like David Ortiz come out as relaxed and as determined to "earn his spot" every single time he comes out of the dugout for one of the four at-bats per night that comprise his entire $12m salary obligation?

It is painfulformeto say this, but so far, even a utility player with acceptable defense and a below-average bat would have had more value in the 2009 lineup than Papi. Josh Beckett might not even need a DH in his starts. I'm not seriously arguing in favor DFA'ing Ortiz for a utility journeyman or allowing pitchers to take at-bats, but a DH who can't hit is not a very good use of a roster spot.

The season is still young, and I really hope Papi warms up with the weather, but if this conversation is still going on in another month, I hope the Red Sox are looking at something more drastic than tinkering with the batting order. Although I have no objection if they want to do that in the meantime.

[OttoC]

I'm not arguing, just asking: is there any reason to believe that actually works?

I don't know. There might be an ego-issue or he could have a sub-conscious fixation about batting third without Ramirez behind him. I think it's worth a try; if he has a good game (positive reinforcement), move him back. I don't suppose there is much chance of giving him a five-game stint with Portland or Pawtucket.

[JimBoSox9]

Yeah, that's what I was getting at exactly. The first clue I imagine will be managers going away from the extreme Ortiz shift and just playing him like a normal pull LHH (without the 2Bman in shallow RF). Right now he's still being shifted and still being pitched to carefully. I'm interested to see when that changes and how Ortiz and the Sox respond.

Interesting you should mention this...after Ortiz's semi-bunt early in the Saturday game, Maddon changed his strategy and left Longoria over at 3rd. The SS was still shifted over, leaving a huge hole between second and third, but it was not the super-shift we've come to expect from Tampa. Didn't see last night's game so I don't know if they changed back to the old strategy.

[keving18]

I think he's going to be OK. He drove one high off the wall last night. He does that a couple more times and the pitchers will be forced to pitch him to pull and he'll start mashing again. His swing got a little out of sorts but he's looked better lately.

[glennhoffmania]

I think he's going to be OK. He drove one high off the wall last night. He does that a couple more times and the pitchers will be forced to pitch him to pull and he'll start mashing again. His swing got a little out of sorts but he's looked better lately.

Well Joe Morgan said he talked to him so maybe he fixed his swing.

He still doesn't look right to me. He still seems slow to recognize the pitch, and if it's a fastball in he's too late. If it's a breaking ball away and out of the zone he swings sometimes anyway and misses it by 6 inches. It's gotten to the point that when he fouls a fastball straight back, I'm encouraged that he was at least able to recognize it but just barely missed.

[pokey_reese]

There is a pretty interesting (and disheartening) article about Ortiz on Baseball Prospectus today, a team effort by Normandin, Carroll, and Goldstein. While none of them come right out and say that he is done, it is worth noting that none of them predict an improvement either. Some highlights:

Despite hitting more fly balls and liners than in previous years, Ortiz hasn't had the timing to make solid contact, and has instead hit just .221 while popping out on over 16 percent of his fly balls. He has yet to homer, even though we are approaching mid-May, in a year where the long ball is flying out of parks left and right. He hasn't been able to hit the ball the other way and take advantage of the Green Monster for wall balls and towering homers either, because pitchers are challenging him inside, knowing that he's having trouble catching up. Not only that, but they are challenging him earlier in the count; Ortiz is seeing first-pitch strikes 58 percent of the time, right at the league average and well above the rates he has seen the past few seasons, when he was one of the dominant sluggers in the game.

While it's possible to say that Ortiz's hitting troubles, specifically his lack of power, come from the tendon issue, it's not clear that this is such a tidy case of cause and effect. The sheath is healed, leaving many to wonder if the psychological impact is as much to blame as any lingering pain. One physician I spoke with thinks that the "feel" may indeed be a major factor. "Tendons follow specific paths inside the body," he told me. "When they get out of groove or swell, that's a noticeable feeling even in non-athletes." Changing one seemingly small thing can completely change a hitter.

When a player hits a baseball, the first place that he feels it is in his hands. The hands and wrists absorb that initial impact of hard ball hitting a hard bat at high velocity, and if the player has soreness in the hands or wrists, it can create a certain kind of apprehension in one's swing. That kind of apprehension is often visible in Ortiz' swing this season. Note the less aggrandized leg kick, creating less leverage in his swing, and notice how often his left hand (the injured one) is coming off of the bat before contact to avoid any impact at all on his wrist.

Prospects have the low pressure of the minor leagues, and they have youth on their side. For Papi, with the pressure of playing in Boston as well as the generally declining skills that come with approaching his mid-30s, it's hard to say exactly when—or if—he will return to form

[OttoC]

While none of them come right out and say that he is done, it is worth noting that none of them predict an improvement either.

Ortiz hit three home runs in spring training and the one I recall seeing looked like the Ortiz of old, and some other of his hits looked that way, too. I think he started the season in a slump and he is pressing because of everybody and his brother hollering, "Is Ortiz washed up?" I think he could stnad a short vacation.

[jippaman]

There is a pretty interesting (and disheartening) article about Ortiz on Baseball Prospectus today, a team effort by Normandin, Carroll, and Goldstein. While none of them come right out and say that he is done, it is worth noting that none of them predict an improvement either.

1.) Normandin's stat-based analysis is much more helpful than either of Carroll's med view or Goldstein's scout take, mostly because the latter two aren't telling us anything we didn't already know (i.e. we all watch Ortiz and can tell that his swing is a bit off, that's he's just missing pitches, that the contact he makes results in warning-track or pop-up power, and that he's not generating the normal drive or bat speed to which we've grown accustomed).

2.) Though Normandin does conclude based upon first-pitch strikes and other metrics that Ortiz could turn things around, he hedges his bet by saying that the longer this slump goes on the more likely it is that Ortiz has lost the ability to hit for power like he used to. I would have liked to see Normandin take the next step and compare Ortiz to other players who have had similar power outages at his age over similar lengths of time. If I get a minute, I'll try to find some of these examples.

3.) Unrelated to the above post, here's a list of Ortiz's most comparable players by age according to BP's PECOTA Card:

Similarity Index: 31 (NOTE: A score over 50 indicates a players is historically similar to a large group of others, while a score under 20 indicates he is historically unique.)

Rank Hitter Year Score Rank Hitter Year Score
1 Carlos Delgado 2006 46 11 Willie Stargell 1973 24
2 Jim Thome 2004 43 12 Fred McGriff 1997 22
3 John Mayberry 1982 38 13 Ryan Klesko 2005 22
4 Jason Giambi 2004 38 14 Sammy Sosa 2002 21
5 Greg Luzinski 1984 36 15 Cliff Floyd 2006 21
6 Don Mincher 1972 33 16 Norm Cash 1968 21
7 Willie McCovey 1971 27 17 Andre Thornton 1983 19
8 Boog Powell 1975 26 18 Jeff Bagwell 2002 18
9 Ted Williams 1952 25 19 Reggie Smith 1978 18
10 David Justice 1999 24 20 Edgar Martinez 1996 17

Do with this chart what you will, but I think it's interesting to see the names.


edit: i have no idea how to fix that chart. any help?

Edited by jippaman, 11 May 2009 - 02:22 PM.

[TomRicardo]

Ortiz hit three home runs in spring training and the one I recall seeing looked like the Ortiz of old, and some other of his hits looked that way, too. I think he started the season in a slump and he is pressing because of everybody and his brother hollering, "Is Ortiz washed up?" I think he could stnad a short vacation.

Why? This month he has on OBP of .452. He has walked 12 times in 9 games. Since April 20th Ortiz has a line of .260/.386/.449. An .835 OPS is low for Papi but isn't exactly killing the team out of 3 hole. Ellsbury's .326 OBP (which has only been .342 this month) is far worse out of the lead off spot.

Edited by TomRicardo, 11 May 2009 - 02:27 PM.

[keving18]

There is a pretty interesting (and disheartening) article about Ortiz on Baseball Prospectus today, a team effort by Normandin, Carroll, and Goldstein. While none of them come right out and say that he is done, it is worth noting that none of them predict an improvement either. Some highlights:

Will Carroll.

Boy, I'm relieved. I thought somebody with a little credibility might have made the scouting report.

[pokey_reese]

Why? This month he has on OBP of .452. He has walked 12 times in 9 games. Since April 20th Ortiz has a line of .260/.386/.449. An .835 OPS is low for Papi but isn't exactly killing the team out of 3 hole. Ellsbury's .326 OBP (which has only been .342 this month) is far worse out of the lead off spot.

I'm not sure where either you or Marc Normandin got the post-April 20th numbers from, but they are strikingly different for some reason, as he also picked out that day as a point to take stats from (when Magadan mentioned that Ortiz was starting his hands higher):

Though Magadan publicly diagnosed this issue on April 20, Ortiz hasn't seen much improvement since, hitting .241/.370/.362 in 58 at-bats.

(italics are mine there)

Granted, I agree with you that Ellsbury is as much of a concern at the top of the line-up, and not receiving nearly as much attention for a sub-par OBP as he should given the press Ortiz is getting, but I wouldn't say that it is more of a concern than Ortiz.

I wonder if tenderness and trepidation from the wrist injury prevented Ortiz from lifting as much as normal during the offseason, which would cause him to be weaker not just in the wrist but all the way through his shoulders. If he is finally 'healthy,' it would make sense that he would need more time to add the muscle back that he wouldn't have if he hadn't been able to lift at full capacity in the off-season. Does anyone know if he is on any kind of special strength-building workout now? I have some hopes that he could just be behind the curve in terms of physical preparation still, leading to an eventual Delgado-like resurgence.

Certainly, as you pointed out his eye is improving, as he has a .450 OBP this month, but his slugging has actually dropped since late April, down to .310 for the month from a season-high of .350 on April 28th, and the BA has followed suit.

At the beginning of the year Pedroia mentioned in an interview that it takes about 200 ABs to get a real sense of what his numbers will be for the season, and I am hopeful that Ortiz will at least be trending upwards by that point.

[OttoC]

Why? This month he has on OBP of .452. He has walked 12 times in 9 games.

And he has a .207 batting average and a .310 slugging average this month while batting with 31 men on base. How many of those 12 walks did it take to get his two RBIs for May?

[TomRicardo]

And he has a .207 batting average and a .310 slugging average this month while batting with 31 men on base. How many of those 12 walks did it take to get his two RBIs for May?

Well considering he is batting .320/.417/.560 this season with men in scoring position, people riding the "walks are bad" short bus look especially poor trying to say Ortiz walking is costing this team.

[puffyme]

I'm not arguing, just asking: is there any reason to believe that actually works?

Is batting in the order surrounded by Lugo and Varitek really "relaxing" for a superstar DH making $12m/year, or is it more pressure to "earn his spot"? Or does a guy like David Ortiz come out as relaxed and as determined to "earn his spot" every single time he comes out of the dugout for one of the four at-bats per night that comprise his entire $12m salary obligation?

It is painfulformeto say this, but so far, even a utility player with acceptable defense and a below-average bat would have had more value in the 2009 lineup than Papi. Josh Beckett might not even need a DH in his starts. I'm not seriously arguing in favor DFA'ing Ortiz for a utility journeyman or allowing pitchers to take at-bats, but a DH who can't hit is not a very good use of a roster spot.

The season is still young, and I really hope Papi warms up with the weather, but if this conversation is still going on in another month, I hope the Red Sox are looking at something more drastic than tinkering with the batting order. Although I have no objection if they want to do that in the meantime.

DFA Ortiz, pay him 12 million this year and next and have some utility guy dh. Thank God you are not our GM. I don't want to hear about sunk cost. If Ortiz is done that decision doesn't get made after 150 abs. If this problem continues in July then maybe. The Sox are not struggling to score runs. It is starting pitching that is the problem so far. By your logic we should dfa Beckett and Lester too.

[jippaman]

If Ortiz is done that decision doesn't get made after 150 abs. If this problem continues in July then maybe.

That decision is also not made in July. Ortiz will hit third for the Sox all season long and right into the playoffs whether he's hitting .220 or .320, slugging .350 or .650. He's still the cliched "face of the team" and will be until he leaves, which will be whenever Theo says. It sure has hell won't be in '09, and I'd give odds that it's also not in '10. He's here to stay, so let's all just hope he finds his swing.

[OttoC]

Well considering he is batting .320/.417/.560 this season with men in scoring position, people riding the "walks are bad" short bus look especially poor trying to say Ortiz walking is costing this team.

Yes, that he has walked 12 times is a whole lot better than making outs in those at bats but the fact that nearly two-thirds of his at bats this month have come with runners on base and he only has two RBIs to show for it is not what i want to see from a number-3 hitter.

[TheoShmeo]

That decision is also not made in July. Ortiz will hit third for the Sox all season long and right into the playoffs whether he's hitting .220 or .320, slugging .350 or .650. He's still the cliched "face of the team" and will be until he leaves, which will be whenever Theo says. It sure has hell won't be in '09, and I'd give odds that it's also not in '10. He's here to stay, so let's all just hope he finds his swing.

I don't think you are correct. Notwithstanding Nomar's performance in the game when Jeter dove into the stands in early July, 2004, Garciaparra was still a Red Sox icon when Theo traded him to fix a perceived fatal flaw with the team's defense. The Sox let Damon and Pedro walk without much of a fight and each was at one time a symbol of the team. The Sox made it clear that they weren't bringing Schilling back this year. The bottom line is that they will not keep a player around beyond what they perceive to be his useful life, past accomplishments be damned.

If Ortiz continues on his current pace, the Sox will replace him. The only question is when. You might be right that it wont be in 2009, though if that's true, it will be because they think he's their best option at DH rather than out of PR type concerns.

Separately, I'm surprised that anyone was all that encouraged by Ortiz's double last night. That at bat, like all the other at bats in the Tampa series, was just one more example of him not being able to hit a ball hard to the right side, and I doubt that would have even been a hit in any other ballpark in the majors. Sure, Fenway taketh and Fenway giveth away, and I loved the result, but let's not be too encouraged when we see Ortiz hit a fly ball to left that hits or lands near the base of the Monster.

[paulftodd]

That decision is also not made in July. Ortiz will hit third for the Sox all season long and right into the playoffs whether he's hitting .220 or .320, slugging .350 or .650. He's still the cliched "face of the team" and will be until he leaves, which will be whenever Theo says. It sure has hell won't be in '09, and I'd give odds that it's also not in '10. He's here to stay, so let's all just hope he finds his swing.

I do not expect Papi to ever be DFA given the money he still has coming to him, but it is easy to wave the loyalty flag when you are 20-12 and Papis power loss has not hurt you much. Youks, Bay and Lowell have been carrying the team. This is a business, and if Papi still struggles and the Red Sox stop winning, you will find Papi getting less AB's (sitting against LHP) and getting dropped in the order, and you will likely not see him playing 1B against NL teams to get his bat in the lineup.

I hope he gets his swing back, but I am not sure his wrist will allow this to happen, and if it doesn't happen by July, it may not happen. And if it does not happen in 2010, his 2011 option won't be picked up.

That said, he is not really killing us, and even if the guy who hit 40-50 HR's never returns he can still contribute by getting on base, working the count and providing a mix of base hits and doubles. Last week his OPS was 950, raising his season OPS to 666. Is the beast returning? Who knows. Here is hoping he gets his first HR before one of our pitchers. My bet is he heats up in June with warmer weather, but doubt he will ever get the Big Papi swing back. And if Youk, Bay and Lowell stay healthy and continue to hit, it won't really matter.

[yep]

That decision is also not made in July. Ortiz will hit third for the Sox all season long and right into the playoffs whether he's hitting .220 or .320, slugging .350 or .650. He's still the cliched "face of the team" and will be until he leaves, which will be whenever Theo says. It sure has hell won't be in '09, and I'd give odds that it's also not in '10. He's here to stay, so let's all just hope he finds his swing.

Along the lines of TheoShmeo, I do not think the Red Sox in recent years have run that kind of organization. Ortiz is no more the "face of the franchise" than Nomar, Damon, or Pedro were when the FO let them go. And I think a strong case could be made for other players, notably Pedroia, as the current "face of the franchise," whatever that means. Perhaps more to the point, on a board like SoSH, I think there is every justification for discussing what *should* be done as much as what realistically *will* be done.

Ortiz is currently a bad hitter whose only value to the team is hitting. I hate that fact. If I were the kind of person who kept mini-shrines in my home of JFK and the pope, Big Papi's picture would be right there with them, not necessarily occupying the bottom spot. But so far in '09 he is not a valuable use of a lineup spot. If he were not David Ortiz, he wouldn't even be there.

There is no reason to think the Red Sox should or will pull a Bernie Williams and continue to allow Ortiz to take up space in recognition of past heroics. Everyone here hopes he will get better, but if what we've seen is what we get, it's time to make a move. The Sox have stockpiled roster depth and payroll flexibility, and the best reason to do that is precisely so that you can deal with the unexpected in real-time. Papi will never have to pay for a drink in New England for the rest of his days, but a no-defense, slow-running power hitter who can no longer hit for average or power is not someone who should be in the lineup on a big-payroll team in the AL East.

[geoduck no quahog]

I'm going to duck after I say this, but I don't give a shit.

David Ortiz deserves our patience more than any other current Red Sox player. He is an icon, like it or not.

I waited (counting gestation) 51 years for a Red Sox championship, including the days that saw Carlton Fisk run out of town by a dysfunctional ownership.

I'm sorry - team loyalty is more than statistics or laundry. In a day when many players are just plain selfish and self-serving, Ortiz should have earned a more than a few passes from folk who seem to think winning really IS everything. If that's the case, go root for the fucking Yankees. Winning is more than the smugness coming from lucking out in a short series...it's about the journey and the personalities that take you there.

Yes, there were other personalities that contributed mightily, but has Ortiz asked for a bigger contract? Demanded anything of ownership? Threatened to go to a competitor?

I'd rather lose with Ortiz hitting .200 than win by trashing him and his legacy - forgetting what he meant to this team and to the city. It's more important to a douchebag romantic like myself to think that if I ever bumped into him after retirement, I'd be able to say honestly that I supported him to his end-days and wasn't one of the "fans" that demanded he be released or demoted because he didn't live up to an insatiable need to field all-star at every position.

If, indeed, Ortiz is on the downswing (something I'm not willing to concede - given Delgado's history), I think it's only right to slowly work the DH into a multi-player spot in the batting order, with Ortiz maintaining primacy.

Sometimes I really do hate spectator sports.

(still ducking)

[hair and cheese]

I'm going to duck after I say this, but I don't give a shit.

David Ortiz deserves our patience more than any other current Red Sox player. He is an icon, like it or not.

I waited (counting gestation) 51 years for a Red Sox championship, including the days that saw Carlton Fisk run out of town by a dysfunctional ownership.

I'm sorry - team loyalty is more than statistics or laundry. In a day when many players are just plain selfish and self-serving, Ortiz should have earned a more than a few passes from folk who seem to think winning really IS everything. If that's the case, go root for the fucking Yankees. Winning is more than the smugness coming from lucking out in a short series...it's about the journey and the personalities that take you there.

Yes, there were other personalities that contributed mightily, but has Ortiz asked for a bigger contract? Demanded anything of ownership? Threatened to go to a competitor?

I'd rather lose with Ortiz hitting .200 than win by trashing him and his legacy - forgetting what he meant to this team and to the city. It's more important to a douchebag romantic like myself to think that if I ever bumped into him after retirement, I'd be able to say honestly that I supported him to his end-days and wasn't one of the "fans" that demanded he be released or demoted because he didn't live up to an insatiable need to field all-star at every position.

If, indeed, Ortiz is on the downswing (something I'm not willing to concede - given Delgado's history), I think it's only right to slowly work the DH into a multi-player spot in the batting order, with Ortiz maintaining primacy.

Sometimes I really do hate spectator sports.

(still ducking)

I wish I wrote this.

[TheYaz67]

Geoduck - That's a totally fair sentiment. I share that sentiment in many, many ways. He came through where in the past, previous icons could not. He has my eternal gratitude, and I think also the gratitude of Theo/Tito/Ownership. It would be a disaster to DFA him and that will never, ever happen. He should be patroling the legends suites for years to come.

I also think he will be, and should be given until at least the ASB to heat up and find his swing, in the 3 hole. As many have pointed out, other bats are getting it done right now, and as long as he keeps fouling off pitches/walking and getting his OBP up, he's not killing us by any imagination while he tries to get right.

However, given his age, recent injury history and slowness this year, Theo and Tito have to be concerned. His value is entirely tied up in his bat - he is our primary DH and plays every day. He cannot contribute in any other way, and when
Youks/Bay cool down and inevitable injuries come into play (seeing this already) its going to be a problem if he hasn't turned it on and is still hitting 3rd.

As such, it would be fair to expect as the year progresses he might indeed sit against tough lefties, against NL opponents and even dropped in the batting order (probably to 5th? if Youk moved up to 3rd?). At least that is my hope should he continue to be a sub .700 OPS hitter at the ASB. We'll see - I'm really hoping he gets it going obviously (best case scenario), but I sure haven't seen much signs of that yet....

Next year is a new year - you let him come into camp as the starting DH and the job is his to loose I suppose - although they won't bring in a FA anyways, if any replacement is needed for Papi in 2010 it would have to be internal, right?

[soxfan121]

Ortiz looks, to my untrained eye, like he did in early 2003. That is his second worst stretch in a Boston uniform, although over fewer PAs. After watching some at-bats from my video collection, it looks like he has fallen back into some old, bad habits. I'm sure that this hasn't gone unnoticed by people who work for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, Ron Jackson isn't available for a consult (as far as I recall).

I also find Joe Morgan to be the most infuriating and intolerable baseball analyst to ever blather into a microphone. And while the constant references to his conversation with Ortiz annoyed me to no end, it's not like Joe Morgan, HOF hitter, has nothing to offer a younger colleague. Hell, anything could help at this point.

I echo the sentiments of Tom Ricardo, geoduck no quahog and jippaman. 2005 Kevin Millar is the precedent here. There is no way that the Red Sox "cut bait" on David Ortiz. Based on what Ortiz IS bringing to the table, there is no reason to move him down in the order - especially if Pedroia is out of the lineup and Ellsbury continues to lead off. There will, most likely, be less runners on base, and using Ortiz's OBP in front of Bay & Youkilis continues to make sense. Also, wishing Terry Francona were some impulsive, "mix-it-up" manager when it comes to the lineup is delusional. The man believes in roles and he believes his players deserve to know their role and he will stick with them for a LONG time, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.

What Ortiz really needs is some at bats against Gil Meche, Sidney Ponson, Jaime Walker, Jon Garland, John Lackey, Seth McLung, Jaime Moyer, Ryan Franklin, Kevin Millwood and maybe even Roy Halladay.

[keving18]

I'm going to duck after I say this, but I don't give a shit.

David Ortiz deserves our patience more than any other current Red Sox player. He is an icon, like it or not.

I waited (counting gestation) 51 years for a Red Sox championship, including the days that saw Carlton Fisk run out of town by a dysfunctional ownership.

I'm sorry - team loyalty is more than statistics or laundry. In a day when many players are just plain selfish and self-serving, Ortiz should have earned a more than a few passes from folk who seem to think winning really IS everything. If that's the case, go root for the fucking Yankees. Winning is more than the smugness coming from lucking out in a short series...it's about the journey and the personalities that take you there.

Yes, there were other personalities that contributed mightily, but has Ortiz asked for a bigger contract? Demanded anything of ownership? Threatened to go to a competitor?

I'd rather lose with Ortiz hitting .200 than win by trashing him and his legacy - forgetting what he meant to this team and to the city. It's more important to a douchebag romantic like myself to think that if I ever bumped into him after retirement, I'd be able to say honestly that I supported him to his end-days and wasn't one of the "fans" that demanded he be released or demoted because he didn't live up to an insatiable need to field all-star at every position.

If, indeed, Ortiz is on the downswing (something I'm not willing to concede - given Delgado's history), I think it's only right to slowly work the DH into a multi-player spot in the batting order, with Ortiz maintaining primacy.

Sometimes I really do hate spectator sports.

(still ducking)

I agree the element of loyalty is important too. You can take it too far when somebody is truly done and continuing to play him is a disservice to the team but Ortiz is far away from that. He'll get in a rhythm once the warm weather comes and he'll start to rake agin and everybody will forget what the big deal was.

[TheoShmeo]

I don't think I know a single Sox fan who doesn't feel tremendous gratitude toward David Ortiz. He's probably among the favorite two or three Red Sox players ever for a huge percentage of us, myself included. His walk offs in games 4 and 5 are right up there with my most cherished moments in all of sports.

But I like winning more than I like any individual player and if Ortiz continues on his current pace until, say, the All Star Break and the Sox are then able to replace him in the line-up with a player who represents a meaningful upgrade over the 2009 Ortiz, I'll salute them and will have no reservations.

And Geoduck, that has nothing to do with needing an all star at every position. Rather, it comes from the belief that if they get paltry production out of their 3-hole hitter/DH all season, it will eventually bite the Sox in the ass and make winning much more difficult. As we all know, despite the fact that they almost won the ALCS last season, there were lots of problems with that team and contributors to the loss in that series. Beckett wasn't himself. Tito brought him out for one too many innings. Garza was terrific. Tek didn't hit Heidi's weight. But David's anemic production was right up there with the rest of those issues and I'd rather be "disloyal" to Ortiz than think of his down performance as one of the bigger explanations for the end of the second consecutive Sox season.

Late edit: missing word/sense

Edited by TheoShmeo, 11 May 2009 - 10:10 PM.

[deconstruction]

I think a conundrum henceforth will be when and how to know if Ortiz is actually a decent hitter anymore.

Of course, expectations have lowered, so at this point any FLASH of power is getting a lot of attention (on here, at least). People are getting encouraged by the two doubles off Hughes last week. He's walking more and striking out less. When he hits his first home run, what will that indicate? That he has the "ability" to hit with authority? Sure. That he has the ability to consistently do it? Not sure. He's sporadically hitting the ball hard, but, right now, he's just not consistently doing it. If he's still not doing it by the All Star break--a full TWO months from now--with no injuries, well, that's a pretty big sample to predict his performance for the rest of the year.

I don't think that's going to happen, But, really, I have no idea. I hope he'll settle into .375/.475, but even that seems unrealistic at this point.

Problem is, there are precedents for a number of possibilities for Ortiz's future, and no one knows exactly what's wrong.

[TomRicardo]

Yes, that he has walked 12 times is a whole lot better than making outs in those at bats but the fact that nearly two-thirds of his at bats this month have come with runners on base and he only has two RBIs to show for it is not what i want to see from a number-3 hitter.

Oh god this is the horrible, horrible RBI percentage argument again. How many of times was there a player on first? If pitchers aren't going to throw him strikes (they are walking at a crazy rate) do you want him swinging out of the zone trying to get RBIs? No. The RBI% fallacy tries to make walks bad. Walks can never ever be bad.

What is wrong with Ortiz not swinging at poor pitches and letting Youkilis and Bay hit with yhet another person on base?

[TomRicardo]

I don't think that's going to happen, But, really, I have no idea. I hope he'll settle into .375/.475, but even that seems unrealistic at this point.

He has been hitting at almost this rate since April 20th. So actually it is realistic.

[yep]

...I'd rather lose with Ortiz hitting .200 than win by trashing him and his legacy - forgetting what he meant to this team and to the city. ...

Um, is that necessarily a hard distinction?

Will you continue to feel that way when Ortiz is 50 years old?

Would you rather Ortiz be the superhero who turned a historic franchise's history around, or the superhero who caused a blip on the radar and then dragged the team down?

Ortiz was literally picked up off the scrap pile by the Red Sox. His place in baseball history is forever enshrined. He has been the single greatest clutch hitter when clutch mattered most, historically and situationally, regardless of whether clutch is a repeatable skill. No other player in the history of the game has turned the tide of history and inevitability like David Ortiz. In that sleepless October of 2004, David Ortiz, former DFA, proved that the best closer in the history of the game doesn't mean anything until the scoreboard shows a W and an L, that an overweight boy from a third-world country can set a nation on fire and revitalize an entire region, that curses are what you make of them, that hope springs eternal, and that nothing, nothing is over until it's over.

Is that a legacy that could ever, possibly, be "trashed"? Could any man of woman born ever ask for more than to have that place in history and 48 million dollars to boot? Would the Red Sox be the organization that they are, the organization that signed Ortiz and traded Nomar, the organization that gave Ortiz the opportunity to be the greatest superhero in post-season history, if they just continually gave roster spots to dusty superstars of yesteryear?

How long do you want Ortiz to play for the Sox? How long past his useful life must they keep him to ensure his legacy isn't "trashed"?

Whatever the Red Sox accomplish in the near-term years to come will be inextricably linked to Big Papi. He is in the pantheon of baseball gods, forever. Nobody has ever single-handedly forced the bleary-eyed, 2am, hell-bound train of inevitability to turn backwards in its tracks like David Ortiz has. If those late-night extra-innings at-bats in '04 were his only experience in baseball, they would still be greater than even the top 1% of 1% could ever hope for.

Is that a legacy that could be "trashed"? Is allowing him to embarass himself as a weak-hitting walk-drawer for another two years an improvement to that legacy? Are the Red Sox now obligated to forego the talent on the scrap heap, the future Big Papis, the under-recognized potential heroes of tomorrow, in order to deny the decline of the heroes of yesterday?

[glennhoffmania]

I'm sorry - team loyalty is more than statistics or laundry. In a day when many players are just plain selfish and self-serving, Ortiz should have earned a more than a few passes from folk who seem to think winning really IS everything. If that's the case, go root for the fucking Yankees. Winning is more than the smugness coming from lucking out in a short series...it's about the journey and the personalities that take you there.

While I personally agree with this, the FO has shown that they don't. They have treated the team like a business. They have let Pedro, Damon, Nomar, Lowe, Manny, Foulke, and others go when they believed that the price wasn't worth the production, despite their contributions to the team and the city. They've pretty much shown that, as far as they're concerned, winning is everything when it comes to putting a team together. So I don't think they'll handle the Ortiz situation any differently. He's still around because Theo and company believe that he's still worth it. Whenever the day comes when they decide that he's no longer an asset, he'll be gone. I don't think it happens this year though.

[deconstruction]

He has been hitting at almost this rate since April 20th. So actually it is realistic.

Yeah, B-Ref gives a .391/.420 line since that date, so the SLG is a little low. Love the OBP though.

[yecul]

I'm going to duck after I say this, but I don't give a shit.

David Ortiz deserves our patience more than any other current Red Sox player. He is an icon, like it or not.

I waited (counting gestation) 51 years for a Red Sox championship, including the days that saw Carlton Fisk run out of town by a dysfunctional ownership.

I'm sorry - team loyalty is more than statistics or laundry. In a day when many players are just plain selfish and self-serving, Ortiz should have earned a more than a few passes from folk who seem to think winning really IS everything. If that's the case, go root for the fucking Yankees. Winning is more than the smugness coming from lucking out in a short series...it's about the journey and the personalities that take you there.

Yes, there were other personalities that contributed mightily, but has Ortiz asked for a bigger contract? Demanded anything of ownership? Threatened to go to a competitor?

I'd rather lose with Ortiz hitting .200 than win by trashing him and his legacy - forgetting what he meant to this team and to the city. It's more important to a douchebag romantic like myself to think that if I ever bumped into him after retirement, I'd be able to say honestly that I supported him to his end-days and wasn't one of the "fans" that demanded he be released or demoted because he didn't live up to an insatiable need to field all-star at every position.

If, indeed, Ortiz is on the downswing (something I'm not willing to concede - given Delgado's history), I think it's only right to slowly work the DH into a multi-player spot in the batting order, with Ortiz maintaining primacy.

Sometimes I really do hate spectator sports.

(still ducking)

You don't think he has any pride and wants to fail in front of large crowds every night? There are two ways to look at it. You are either showing faith in him by sticking with him through thin and thin or you are putting him in a situation that he can no longer succeed at.

Now, we may or may not be at the point of concluding the latter point, but I am just making the distinction between saying he should be given some time off/dropped in the order and trashing his legacy.

As for TRic's point, yes, he has gotten on base more often, but he has not been doing so with the bat. That is the better leading indicator to watch and it's still a warning sign. Even beyond actual hits/average it's not like he's been getting good contact out there. Ortiz has been consistent this year at the plate. He's just tossed some walks on top of the crappy hitting. It's good and nice to see, but not a long term strategy.

[jippaman]

I don't think you are correct. Notwithstanding Nomar's performance in the game when Jeter dove into the stands in early July, 2004, Garciaparra was still a Red Sox icon when Theo traded him to fix a perceived fatal flaw with the team's defense. The Sox let Damon and Pedro walk without much of a fight and each was at one time a symbol of the team. The Sox made it clear that they weren't bringing Schilling back this year. The bottom line is that they will not keep a player around beyond what they perceive to be his useful life, past accomplishments be damned.

If Ortiz continues on his current pace, the Sox will replace him. The only question is when. You might be right that it wont be in 2009, though if that's true, it will be because they think he's their best option at DH rather than out of PR type concerns.

Nomar was indeed an icon as you say, just like Manny was last year. The difference between these two and Ortiz is that the former duo had documented clubhouse problems that were negatively affecting the team's play on the field. I've always been a stats-guy, but similar to what geoduck wrote in terms of loyalty to an individual, there's a time for every performance-based club to recognize the importance of one player getting along with the next (I hate the word "chemistry" which is why I'm trying to stay away from it). Theo has shown a remarkable talent for doing both: running the Sox with cutthroat statistics-based analysis while complementing his decisions with an eye towards how everyone fits together. Because Ortiz is not killing the team by sulking in the clubhouse (as far as we know) or not running out infield hits or putting himself before the 25th guy, then I don't believe he going anywhere in season while he still has a contract.

[reggiecleveland]

You don't think he has any pride and wants to fail in front of large crowds every night? There are two ways to look at it. You are either showing faith in him by sticking with him through thin and thin or you are putting him in a situation that he can no longer succeed at.

This is a great point. And as it goes I expect it will be Papi's decision not to play. It may be done with a saving face trip to the Dl. but I doubt he would let this type of performance continue another 150 At bats before his pride, and good sense prevail.

As for TRic's point, yes, he has gotten on base more often, but he has not been doing so with the bat. That is the better leading indicator to watch and it's still a warning sign. Even beyond actual hits/average it's not like he's been getting good contact out there. Ortiz has been consistent this year at the plate. He's just tossed some walks on top of the crappy hitting. It's good and nice to see, but not a long term strategy.

It actually is worrisome to me in that he must be seeing the ball reasobable well or smart enough to guess right to get walks, yet can't tag even foul ball homer distance.

[amarshal2]

I think ortiz will get a lot more rope from the FO than Nomar or even Pedro did. He's a different person with a different clubhouse impact. At this point I think there's probably something small that is physically wrong with him that's holding him back. There's no way he's this bad. There will come a time where he turns it around once he feels right and gets his swing back. Like Delgado or Andruw Jones he will be pretty good again even if he doesn't show it soon or even in 2009. Who among us thought Jones or even Tek would be where they are today 6 months ago? Because of his contract, because of what he has meant to this team and the precedent their actions will set, and because of the upside that he offers, Ortiz will get every last opportunity to turn it around. As he should.

[TomRicardo]

As for TRic's point, yes, he has gotten on base more often, but he has not been doing so with the bat. That is the better leading indicator to watch and it's still a warning sign. Even beyond actual hits/average it's not like he's been getting good contact out there. Ortiz has been consistent this year at the plate. He's just tossed some walks on top of the crappy hitting. It's good and nice to see, but not a long term strategy.

Are we talking about Ortiz's future or the Red Sox in 2009? Ortiz might very well be cooked but if he keeps getting on base at around .400 clip, there is nothing wrong batting him third. There is no reason to replace him or even move him down the order, especially with Ellsbury looking as terrible as he has. Ortiz also has been really good with people on base as well as in high leverage situations. He has had trouble with no one on base.

He might not hit another HR again but if he continues the way he has been hitting he is useful in the 3 hole.

Ellsbury is far bigger problem leading off. Ortiz may not be Big Papi anymore but he is an offensive force. Ellsbury is sporting an empty .300.

[Ananti]

If Ortiz is not going to hit another homerun but can sport a .400 OBP, maybe he should lead off.

[paulftodd]

Oh god this is the horrible, horrible RBI percentage argument again. How many of times was there a player on first? If pitchers aren't going to throw him strikes (they are walking at a crazy rate) do you want him swinging out of the zone trying to get RBIs? No. The RBI% fallacy tries to make walks bad. Walks can never ever be bad.

What is wrong with Ortiz not swinging at poor pitches and letting Youkilis and Bay hit with yhet another person on base?

His RBI percentage is rather low, 14.7%, mainly because Papi has come to the plate 36 times with a runner on first and driven only one home due to the lack of HR's. He has driven in 8 runners from 3rd, but 4 were SF where he gave up an out.

Papi is also the worst player on the Red Sox in advancing from 1B on basehits so far. So his walks are not as valuable as Jason Bays or Jacoby's, although this may be compensated for by Youk (16.9% RBI%) and Bays (21.1% RBI%) hot hitting behind him. Only 8 of his 20 walks have advanced a runner. However, his last 12 walks generated 5 runs by advancing a runner before a hit or Papi scoring himself on a HR.

Of course, his line in high leverage situations is good, 333/407/556/963 with 6 RBI in 18 AB so maybe the totals are deceptive at this point.

He is not getting big hits on hitters counts. He used to crush balls on these counts . Either he is not seeing good pitches to hit on these counts anymore, or he is taking them trying to work a walk. As Bay has shown, I would much rather get a 3 run HR than a walk to load the bases. Thats what it comes down to, do we want Big Papi or BB Papi. Both have value, but one is more valuable than the other.

Hopefully Big Papi can shut down this thread with a hot streak, but will his wrist cooperate?. I think if people knew he was healthy there would not be as much angst over a slow start, but unfortunately, you just can not believe anything the Red Sox or Papi says in this regard.

[NDame616]

I'm going to duck after I say this, but I don't

(snipped because it's been quoted enough)

But what about the other 24 guys who are giving it their all for the ring? What about the dozens of front office guys who work 80 hour weeks to bring us the best team? What about the hundreds of Fenway employees that keep the fans happy and cheering for the team that they love? Shouldn't we also try to look out for them? What about ownership, who spends 180M+ a year on the roster?

There's hundreds of people who are employed by the Red Sox, all working their ass off to do their part to bring us a championship. Because of that, Theo/Tito have to do whatever they can to bring us a championship.

Because of that, it CAN'T be as simple as "he brought us championships, so he STAYS our DH"

There's a big difference between kicking him to the curb and slowly integrating someone else.

I look at Ortiz like this....I had to put my dog down a year ago. The vet said I could stay with her and watch her slowly go to sleep, but she said I shoudln't have my last memory of her being limp in my arms. It should be tail wagging and licking me. Ortiz is the same. I don't want my last memory of him crushing the 2009 Red Sox because he is finished. I want him contributing to a championship...which may only be playing 3 or 4 games a week or so./

[keving18]

While I personally agree with this, the FO has shown that they don't. They have treated the team like a business. They have let Pedro, Damon, Nomar, Lowe, Manny, Foulke, and others go when they believed that the price wasn't worth the production, despite their contributions to the team and the city. They've pretty much shown that, as far as they're concerned, winning is everything when it comes to putting a team together. So I don't think they'll handle the Ortiz situation any differently. He's still around because Theo and company believe that he's still worth it. Whenever the day comes when they decide that he's no longer an asset, he'll be gone. I don't think it happens this year though.

I disagree with this too. They have stuck with Wakefield through his horrid periods. They never did come around to realize Pedroia was better than Loretta. they stuck with Foulke even though it was pretty obvious he was never going to be the same pitcher again.

Tito is a loyal guy and he doesn't bump a veteran until it's absolutely crystal clear the guy is done.

[smastroyin]

Pedroia wasn't necessarily better than Loretta in '06, he still had the wrist injury and was only ok in Pawtucket. The problem with Loretta was when they decided he deserved reps at 1B instead of Carlos Pena. That was kind of dumb, oh well.

Regarding geoduck's point, I think it is more about the wolves at the door here and elsewhere. A guy goes from a key part of the team to being old yeller in the space of a month seemingly. I think a slavish devotion to efficiency may get by over in Oakland, but when you are trying to sustain a marketing machine, you have to build the brand and you have to do at least some of that with the players. That is absolutely treating things like a business and sure, even though Ortiz has not contributed much, this is still a team playing better than .600 ball (a 101 win pace at the moment) despite only Wakefield performing at expectation or better in the rotation. If they were really struggling and fans were starting to not show, then maybe they would make some bigger changes.

I have to disagree with Cliff, I don't think a lineup change would help Ortiz relax, I think it would merely affect his pride and make him try even harder to reclaim his spot in the lineup. Hopefully the Sox and Tito have a handle on which is true.