647 replies to this topic

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Until he goes 0-4 with 2 errors and hurts the team even worse.

From reading this thread, the only way he could hurt the team worse is if he gave everyone swine flu.

Doesn't seem to be a huge risk for a couple of games.

[NomarRS05]

Actually if the teamattes have a problem with it, its the TEAM'S problem. And that was my point as to why Francona might think twice about sitting this guy.

I just don't think the players' egos are so fragile that seeing Ortiz lose some AB's after playing like dogshit for a third of the season is going to affect their performance. I think they understand that winning comes first and that the Red Sox expect to compete for a championship this season. That means that, yes, if you play poorly enough, at some point there will be consequences.

[Ananti]

I would think his teammates who wants to win games would appreciate a FO who has similar priorities.

[normstalls]

I would think his teammates who wants to win games would appreciate a FO who has similar priorities.

This is beyond embarrassing and ridiculous. A DH hitting .185 is unheard of and inexcusable. The Red Sox really need to take hold of the situation and do something. If it is just having him sit on the bench for a week becuase no one can agree on a DL stint so be it, but something has to be done.

[Ananti]

Yes, at this point having a 24 man roster is less harmful than having him in the lineup every day. They need to do it and let him decide if he wants to rot on the bench for 4 month or he wants to rehab in the minors.

Edited by Ananti, 30 May 2009 - 03:25 PM.

[Joe Shlabotnick]

I am beginning to wonder how much longer Theo will let this continue. Clearly a move needs to be made. It also seems to me that the longer Papi lets this go on, the more he will erode the good will he has built up during his Boston tenure.

[jtn46]

I am beginning to wonder how much longer Theo will let this continue. Clearly a move needs to be made. It also seems to me that the longer Papi lets this go on, the more he will erode the good will he has built up during his Boston tenure.

No it won't. Every GM in baseball would give Ortiz an immense amount of rope given his track record, and that's very likely exactly what Theo will do. If Ortiz still has a high .900 OPS bat in him, isn't it prudent to be patient?

You know, in fairness to Papi here, he has a bad day (and he's been hitting liners at guys in Toronto...some better luck and he has a few hits to show for it) and it's his fault the team lost the game. Youkilis, Bay, Pedroia, etc... have a bad day, and no one blinks an eye. I realize that's because they've had a nice season, but Papi's had a nice career for the Sox. 2 bad months shouldn't erase that, and I think we need to remember what he's capable of when he gets going.

ETA, just to illustrate this point, here are some players off to similarly lousy starts being given plenty of rope:

Chris Davis .194/.253/.436
Jason Giambi .211/.351/.349
Derek Lee .243/.314/.404
Brian Giles .192/.284/.287
Magglio Ordonez .275/.356/.350
Garret Atkins .191/.273/.287
Adrian Beltre .216/.249/.320
Orlando Cabrera .240/.278/.297
Rafael Furcal .240/.307/.303
Jimmy Rollins .227/.274/.343
BJ Upton .198/.293/.286

I could add dozens more names of established guys off to really horrible starts. Odds are pretty good that someone, probably multiple somoenes, in that group, will end up righting themselves.

Edited by jtn46, 30 May 2009 - 04:04 PM.

[RingoOSU]

You have to expect a ridiculous hitter like Ortiz will eventually put up like a .850 OPS.

Why? Can't his career simply be over? Just because it happened at 35 instead of 40 doesn't mean he'll simply "snap out of it."

[KenTremendous]

Ortiz has about a thousand problems right now. One big one is is that his failures have had a bad habit of occurring at exactly the wrong times. (He is now 179th out of 181 MLB regulars in WPA.) He has been godawful, certainly, but in addition to his godawfulness he seems always to be ending innings with Ks...leaving a ton of guys on base...like a fielder playing out of position, the ball is finding him.

It's just flukey, and he's certainly failing a lot in low-pressure situations too. But for a guy with confidence problems, it's got to be murderous to keep ending rallies the way he's been (like today's mini-first inning rally -- an Ortiz HR there might have done in Tallet early). I know this has been said before, but it really is a 2004/05 Bizarro World, where he is the last guy you want at the plate in any kind of remotely important situation; and worse, he's the last guy he wants up there, too.

Edited by KenTremendous, 30 May 2009 - 04:24 PM.

[CrouchingTonyHiddenPena]

You know, in fairness to Papi here, he has a bad day (and he's been hitting liners at guys in Toronto...some better luck and he has a few hits to show for it) and it's his fault the team lost the game. Youkilis, Bay, Pedroia, etc... have a bad day, and no one blinks an eye. I realize that's because they've had a nice season, but Papi's had a nice career for the Sox. 2 bad months shouldn't erase that, and I think we need to remember what he's capable of when he gets going.

If Bay, Youkilis, Pedroia, et al had as bad a first 2 months as Ortiz is having, the same thread would be ongoing for them, and it's not even debatable. Thinking otherwise is as naive as those you're painting as such. Nobody here is suggesting that we throw Ortiz out with the garbage, or even remotely implying anything close, which counters your point precisely.

In short, while tempers are slightly flared more each day, I'm reading impulsive criticism and potential solutions, be they good or bad, with most of it rooted in the exact respect you claim he isn't getting here.

With regard to your point on comparisons, they have nothing to do with the Red Sox getting David Ortiz to the place he needs to be mentally/physically to be a successful hitter again (and the majority of them are not potently successful DH's). I would like them to try him in the field, sit him on the DL, or send him down to straighten himself out. The problem with the latter is that if it doesn't work, what do you do then? All things taken into consideration, something needs to be done somewhat soon, and whatever it is I hope it helps him more than it sets him back...because I respect him as a great player and hitter during his entire Red Sox career.

[jtn46]

With regard to your point on comparisons, they have nothing to do with the Red Sox getting David Ortiz to the place he needs to be mentally/physically to be a successful hitter again (and the majority of them are not potently successful DH's). I would like them to try him in the field, sit him on the DL, or send him down to straighten himself out. The problem with the latter is that if it doesn't work, what do you do then? All things taken into consideration, something needs to be done somewhat soon, and whatever it is I hope it helps him more than it sets him back...because I respect him as a great player and hitter during his entire Red Sox career.

I just don't think anything's going to happen. If Ortiz is healthy, he's the DH. They may sit him against lefties that throw hard, but that's probably about it.

My point was, most GM's would react the exact same way, as evidenced by how those other players are being treated by their GM's. The Phillies aren't calling up Donald to take AB's away from Rollins. The Cubs aren't benching their first baseman. The Tigers aren't shopping for right fielders. It's been brought up before, but Carlos Delgado looked done in May of last season, then went on to finish 9th in MVP voting. Fans, just like us, were on WFAN every single day clamoring for Omar to do something. He didn't, and Delgado made him look very smart.

[5belongstoGeorge]

While technically worse, the upside of him committing a couple errors here and there (hopefully of the harmless variety) while something clicks in his minds to help him out of this funk is worth it IMHO. Seeing as though this is all hypothetical anyway, why not at least try it out? At this point, I'm not so sure it could hurt worse, but I certainly see your logical point. Something has to give either way...and sooner rather than later.

I don't see how spreading the suck from the batter's box to the infield is beneficial. While I enjoyed it immensly when he threw out Jeff Suppan at third base during Pedro's 2004 World Series start, he was never a Boomer Scott (the gentleman that 5 belongs to).The one positive about Big Papi's OBP is he hasn't had to run the bases much at all. Dude was always a 2 tool player on his best day.

Don't get me wrong, I have loved The Big Papi, blubber and all, for years, and he has certainly earned a place in Red Sox and baseball lore for all time. He had a remarkable run. Unfortunately, it appears to be over right now.

[Doc Zero]

I just don't think anything's going to happen. If Ortiz is healthy, he's the DH. They may sit him against lefties that throw hard, but that's probably about it.

Delgado comparisons aside, I think this debate boils down to what your definition of "healthy" is. Even though you can't spot a contusion or see anything come up on an MRI, I don't think anyone is ready to say that Ortiz is perfectly healthy, here. Whether the bulk of this problem is mental or physical has yet to be realized -- but day after day, it's becoming abundantly clear that allowing him to be the active DH with no questions asked is a questionable move. He's got one job to do, and an OPS in the mid-500 range is not going to cut it.

At what point does the organization decide that giving ABs to a remarkably unproductive DH is doing more harm than good? Eventually, he may need playing time to adjust his mechanics and figure out why he can't hit 89 mph heat, but in the meantime, he's well past the point of being a black hole in a lineup that is already struggling to produce runs on the road.

[Ananti]

So if every other GM does it, that means the Red Sox should do it too?

I always thought the key to success is not following what everyone else does? To me the issue here is what they should do, not what everyone else would do. Everyone else may be wrong.

[johnmd20]

Ortiz has about a thousand problems right now. One big one is is that his failures have had a bad habit of occurring at exactly the wrong times. (He is now 179th out of 181 MLB regulars in WPA.)

Note: Nick Johnson is 6th in WPA out of 181.

[jtn46]

So if every other GM does it, that means the Red Sox should do it too?

I always thought the key to success is not following what everyone else does? To me the issue here is what they should do, not what everyone else would do. Everyone else may be wrong.

Every GM does it because it's not logical to give up on a perennial MVP candidate 2 months into a season. If Ortiz isn't done, it's a huge, huge mistake to treat him like he is. If he's done, I'm sure Theo and the front office want to make damn sure. If they were to cut him, I bet a team would grab him in a heartbeat, and if that team was the Yankees and a couple pop ups left the park and it got him going, this board would want Theo fired immediately.

I don't think he's done. He hit in the WBC and hit in the spring. He says he's healthy. What's the minimum we have to evaluate a player? Lester's had 2 bad months. Daisuke hasn't had a single good start. Patience with Beckett paid off, he's in '07 form all of a sudden. There were calls to DFA Penny, and he's become an automatic quality start, nothing special but better than we're getting from some of the rotation. I know the issue with Ortiz is that he's older and coming off an injury, it's not impossible that he is done, but patience could mean getting a high .900 OPS hitter, and no option the Red Sox realistically have is going to bring that kind of hitter into the fold.

[Shelterdog]

At what point does the organization decide that giving ABs to a remarkably unproductive DH is doing more harm than good? Eventually, he may need playing time to adjust his mechanics and figure out why he can't hit 89 mph heat, but in the meantime, he's well past the point of being a black hole in a lineup that is already struggling to produce runs on the road.

They're already doing this. They gave him two months in the 3 spot, now they've moved him down and are benching him occasionally. I assume they keep platooning him more and more at keep him somewhere between 6 and 9 until he starts again.

[Ananti]

Every GM does it because it's not logical to give up on a perennial MVP candidate 2 months into a season. If Ortiz isn't done, it's a huge, huge mistake to treat him like he is. If he's done, I'm sure Theo and the front office want to make damn sure. If they were to cut him, I bet a team would grab him in a heartbeat, and if that team was the Yankees and a couple pop ups left the park and it got him going, this board would want Theo fired immediately.

I don't think he's done. He hit in the WBC and hit in the spring. He says he's healthy. What's the minimum we have to evaluate a player? Lester's had 2 bad months. Daisuke hasn't had a single good start. Patience with Beckett paid off, he's in '07 form all of a sudden. There were calls to DFA Penny, and he's become an automatic quality start, nothing special but better than we're getting from some of the rotation. I know the issue with Ortiz is that he's older and coming off an injury, it's not impossible that he is done, but patience could mean getting a high .900 OPS hitter, and no option the Red Sox realistically have is going to bring that kind of hitter into the fold.

Nobody is suggesting he be cut, but he needs to be in the minors rehabbing. The are different levels of bad, at his currently level of bad performance the team can't afford him in the lineup. He's basically been the hitting equivalent of Wang for the MFYs, and they send his ass to AAA on a phantom injury.

The FO is not doing anything because they are afraid to be wrong. They think if they do nothing, then if it doesn't work out it will be blamed on Oritz, but if they do something, and is wrong, they'll be blamed. This is all about not wanting to take the responsibility for having to make a decision.

[Shelterdog]

Nobody is suggesting he be cut, but he needs to be in the minors rehabbing. The are different levels of bad, at his currently level of bad performance the team can't afford him in the lineup. He's basically been the hitting equivalent of Wang for the MFYs, and they send his ass to AAA on a phantom injury.

The FO is not doing anything because they are afraid to be wrong. They think if they do nothing, then if it doesn't work out it will be blamed on Oritz, but if they do something, and is wrong, they'll be blamed. This is all about not wanting to take the responsibility for having to make a decision.

This is among the stupidest things I've ever seen posted on SoSH. You're just making it up, and you're making up something that's inane. There is no report that they are afraid. There is no evidence that they are afraid. This is the front office that traded Nomar, that let Pedro and Damon go, and that traded Manny. They've been consistently willing to take chances, so why are they wimps all of the sudden?

You do know that if he doesn't want to go to AAA they can't make him go, don't you? This has been pointed out a million times. So your master plan might not be an option if he is refusing to go on the DL. Or maybe they think that keeping him on the major league club is useful because they think that that's the best way to work out of whatever problem he's having. But assuming that other people, people with lots of expertise and track records of success, are making choices out of fear and stupidity is just uncalled for.

Edited by Shelterdog, 30 May 2009 - 07:48 PM.

[Ananti]

This is among the stupidest things I've ever seen posted on SoSH. You're just making it up, and you're making up something that's inane. There is no report that they are afraid. There is no evidence that they are afraid. This is the front office that traded Nomar, that let Pedro and Damon go, and that traded Manny. They've been consistently willing to take chances, so why are they wimps all of the sudden?

What, they are going to admit to be being afraid? Of course there are no reports, but I can judge by their inactions.

You do know that if he doesn't want to go to AAA they can't make him go, don't you? This has been pointed out a million times. So your master plan might not be an option if he is refusing to go on the DL.

And this here is exactly my point. They *can* make him go if they really want to, but they are afraid to do what it takes, because it will make them take a potentially bad PR hit, so they do nothing. So people like you say "it's really up to Ortiz if he goes", so when he doesn't go and stays a blackhole in the line up, it's Ortiz's fault for not wanting to go, not the FO's fault for not forcing him to go.

So if Ortiz recovers, they get credit for "being patient", and if he doesn't, it's because "Ortiz was too stubborn and selfish to go on the DL".

[SumnerH]

And this here is exactly my point. They *can* make him go if they really want to

No, they can't. He's got the right to refuse any minor league assignment, and it's basically impossible to DL him without his consent (barring a significant obviously verifiable injury)--and the player's union would be all over an attempt to force that upon him.

David Ortiz is well within his rights to continue with the major league team unless they cut him (in which case they're still on the hook for his salary and he's free to sign elsewhere).

[normstalls]

That is true they cant force him to the DL or to AAA, but they can make it very obvious that he is forcing them to call up another bat. Simply sit him on the bench, call up Chris Carter and let him platoon DH with Bailey. Send Bard down. Carry 11 pitchers.

Its a fairly ineffective roster and not that flexible, but it may allow them to at least get an occasional hit out of their designater hitter every now and then.

[jtn46]

What, they are going to admit to be being afraid? Of course there are no reports, but I can judge by their inactions.

So the Rays are afraid to do the right thing with Upton. The Cubs are afraid to do the right thing with Lee. The Dodgers are afraid to do the right thing with Furcal. Come on. Teams are patient because it's the prudent thing to do. It may not be fun for fans, but you don't give up on guys with track records and big contracts.

And this here is exactly my point. They *can* make him go if they really want to, but they are afraid to do what it takes, because it will make them take a potentially bad PR hit, so they do nothing. So people like you say "it's really up to Ortiz if he goes", so when he doesn't go and stays a blackhole in the line up, it's Ortiz's fault for not wanting to go, not the FO's fault for not forcing him to go.

So if Ortiz recovers, they get credit for "being patient", and if he doesn't, it's because "Ortiz was too stubborn and selfish to go on the DL".

He's selfish and stubborn if he refuses a DL-trip for an injury he doesn't have? If Ortiz is playing with an injury right now, that injury is behind his hitting woes, and he has refused to rehab it, you're right, but over and over again we're hearing that he's healthy. If he's healthy, he doesn't belong on the DL.

[jtn46]

That is true they cant force him to the DL or to AAA, but they can make it very obvious that he is forcing them to call up another bat. Simply sit him on the bench, call up Chris Carter and let him platoon DH with Bailey. Send Bard down. Carry 11 pitchers.

You've blackmailed your star DH into going to AAA. So, if he tears up AAA pitching and homers everyday for 2 months, what then? You're going to call him back up and expect him to hit and be a team player? If he doesn't run out a groundball, or ignores the hit and run sign, or takes a week off because he feels like it, what right does the team or the fans have to be upset at that? How does the FO get anyone to play for them if they just blackmail them to AAA whenever they struggle?

[reggiecleveland]

This isn't a gamethread.

We are all frustrated with his hitting. But the discussion has run dry. There is no need for a new page on this thread after every 0-4.

[NDame616]

This isn't a gamethread.

We are all frustrated with his hitting. But the discussion has run dry. There is no need for a new page on this thread after every 0-4.

My thoughts exactly. Every day he's 0-4 with 2Ks, or he'll go 1-3 then back it up by two more 0-4s. It's a merry go round. When this thread started, it was a "hmmm, I don't want to say anything but maybe we should be concerned about Ortiz" Now it's a "omg another 0-4! He looked awful in that atback in the Xth inning where he was late on every pitch"

As Ortiz's average, and our faith in him coming back from this slump gets lower and lower, there isn't much else to discuss at this point.

[5belongstoGeorge]

So, Ortiz is an elephant in the living room after all.

[TFisNEXT]

The biggest problem is its very likely that Ortiz is going to bounce back and go on a tear at some point....but we just do not know when. Maybe he is a mental case right now. Who knows. But its very unlikely that he would all of the sudden go from a 900-1000 OPS guy to 600 in the blink of an eye without a few bouncebacks in there. I'm not sure you can find a declining slugger who didn't have the bounce backs like that.


One guy I remember for us...Andre Dawson in 1993. He had a sub 600 OPS through June 30th. Then went on a tear in July/August to bring it all the way back up to around .750. He was 39 years old. That's one example of guy really sucking bad and then turning it around. We've seen Delgado turn it around last year. We saw Giambi turn it around. We saw Frank Thomas turn it around.

I'm pretty sure Papi will turn it around, but unfortunately we just don't know when. It might be next year. That's the biggest problem right now. The team can't afford to wait 2 months or until next year.

[NDame616]

The biggest problem is its very likely that Ortiz is going to bounce back and go on a tear at some point....but we just do not know when.

I'm pretty sure Papi will turn it around, but unfortunately we just don't know when. It might be next year. That's the biggest problem right now. The team can't afford to wait 2 months or until next year.

What are you basing this on, though? As someone said, his career could simply be over. Just because it happened at 35 and not 40 could be his size, previous injuries, or the fact he happened to become a massive player, in size and stature, doing the steroid era.

After a month or so of struggles we can brush it off as a slump. When your designated hitter is all of a sudden batting under .200 after 30% of the season, it may be at the point of him having the ability to just snap out of it.

The balls he hits well are few and far between. Plenty of his at bats look like a high school freshman facing the ace on varsity. I don't know if the results would be better,but I guarantee you hald of the Portland line up would give prettier ABs than Ortiz.

[Eric Van]

Average down to .189 with a .581 OPS out of the DH spot. How much longer can this possibly go on?

This is getting to the point where it is damaging to the rest of the team. Tonight is a perfect example of the damage that can be done with a hole in the middle of the lineup in any spot. It takes momentum away. It takes pressure off the opposing pitching. This goes against the entire strategy of a balanced and "long" lineup....

There's likely an injury there - time for a trip to the DL.

Maybe they should try playing a couple of games at first - occupy his mind rather than sitting and thinking about how much Papi stinks. I'm assuming they wouldn't worry about an injury at this point.

David Ortiz >>> Red Sox Team

That much is clear.

It will go on until the end of the season or he pulls his own plug. I think they will give him all the rope he will take. Maybe another 6 weeks or 12 and they will sit him a couple times a week.

At least it seems that way.

At some point real soon, the sample size of his suck is going to be so large that their only option will be to remove his bat from the lineup.

With whom outside of Ortiz's immediate family would the decision to bench him be unpopular?

From reading this thread, the only way he could hurt the team worse is if he gave everyone swine flu.

These were all responses to a game where David Ortiz probably had the second best day of anyone in the lineup, in terms of hitting the ball hard, and certainly was no worse than fourth. Ellsbury hit two line drives; Ortiz had a liner and a fly that was about a foot shy of being a bases-clearing double and two feet shy of a grand slam. Kottaras had a liner and a "fliner (fly)" that wasn't hit deeply, Drew had a fly ball HR but did nothing in his other three trips, Pedroia one liner, a GB hit and three routine outs. Lowell and Youkilis (fliner / liners) and Bay (a deep fliner / fly) each hit the ball hard once.

This is beyond embarrassing and ridiculous. A DH hitting .185 is unheard of and inexcusable. The Red Sox really need to take hold of the situation and do something. If it is just having him sit on the bench for a week becuase no one can agree on a DL stint so be it, but something has to be done.

Yes, at this point having a 24 man roster is less harmful than having him in the lineup every day. They need to do it and let him decide if he wants to rot on the bench for 4 month or he wants to rehab in the minors.

I am beginning to wonder how much longer Theo will let this continue. Clearly a move needs to be made. It also seems to me that the longer Papi lets this go on, the more he will erode the good will he has built up during his Boston tenure.

And these were responses to a game where he probably hit the ball harder than any of his teammates. He and Lowell were the only guys in the lineup to hit two line drives, but only one of his was a fliner / liner, while both of Lowell's were. (We only hit two pure line drives all day, the other being Bay's line out to 3B). Baldelli had a flyball HR that barely cleared the fence and a fliner / fly not hit deep; Green and Varitek each had one fliner / liner. Nobody else did jack.

The Sox in these two games have hit 16 line drives (liners or fliner / liners) and have 7 hits, which is 5 fewer than normal. We are 2/7 on pure line drives, which is ridiculous bad luck. The image that encapsulates the last two days is Papi hitting the ball right on the nails directly at the 1B and then shaking his head and laughing -- something he did each night.

Here are all of Papi's line drives hit to the right side. (FL is fliner / liner, L is pure line drive. I've included the date of his first HR as a reminder.)

Papi Pulled Liners

Date	What
15-Apr	FL-2B
18-Apr	L-1B
24-Apr	L-1B
26-Apr	L4
4-May	FL-2B
4-May	FL-2B
8-May	FL9
14-May	FL9
20-May	first HR
21-May	L4
21-May	L-1B
24-May	L3
26-May	FL-2B
29-May	L3
30-May	FL9
30-May	L3

Before first HR: pulled line drives, 5.0% of PA, 7.6% of balls in play.

After first HR: pulled line drives, 18.9% of PA, 29.2% of balls in play.

That is a 281% improvement in pulled line drive rate since his first HR. No cherry picking, no playing with data, just the plain freaking facts.

(Oh, and the odds of that being a random fluke are 336 to 1.)

Edited by Eric Van, 31 May 2009 - 07:30 AM.

[Trautwein's Degree]

That is a 281% improvement in pulled line drive rate since his first HR.[/b] No cherry picking, no playing with data, just the plain freaking facts.
(Oh, and the odds of that being a random fluke are 336 to 1.)

Great post - very insightful. At this point, do you think a correction is imminent for Ortiz?

Edited by Trautwein's Degree, 31 May 2009 - 08:56 AM.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Before first HR: pulled line drives, 5.0% of PA, 7.6% of balls in play.

After first HR: pulled line drives, 18.9% of PA, 29.2% of balls in play.

That is a 281% improvement in pulled line drive rate since his first HR. No cherry picking, no playing with data, just the plain freaking facts.

(Oh, and the odds of that being a random fluke are 336 to 1.)

Thanks for this data. Ortiz's LD rate has been fine this year, no doubt about that--it's at 23.1% this morning, five points over last year and six points over 2007, and he has been pulling the ball more. And yet, his BABIP is down 25 points.

I guess one question this raises for me is, is his lousy BA in the context of his good LD rate all bad luck? Between his pull tendencies and the decreased power, I wonder if he's becoming increasingly easy to defend. I haven't seen the positioning of the defenses against him from the "whole field" perspective lately, but I have this mental image of the other team just clumping seven guys into the right side of the field, starting at the outer edge of the infield, and stopping about thirty feet shy of the warning track. Anecdotally, I can think of three line drives off the top of my head that he hit right at players who had no earthly reason being positioned where they were. And yet, they were there and he hit the balls right at them.

[Ananti]

That is a 281% improvement in pulled line drive rate since his first HR. No cherry picking, no playing with data, just the plain freaking facts.

(Oh, and the odds of that being a random fluke are 336 to 1.)

Not cherry picking with data? Are you sure?

How about the fact that he hit .086/.135/.114 over those games. You going to completely ignore that? How about in those games he Ked in 37.1% of his AB? Compared to 24.6% before that. How about he's BBed in just 5.4% of his PA in those games, compared to 15.2% before.

Every pitcher he faces is simply throwing fastballs down the middle against him because they don't fear him at all. If he's hitting more LDs, it's more because of that than anything else, they are coming straight after him which is why his K rate has skyrocketed and his walk rates has collapsed.

[yecul]

The Ortiz pessimism is based on his season to date and not based on a single game where he hit a couple of line drives.

An improved LD% is a very nice sign. That is a very good counter point Ananti. The question is, are you right that it's merely a function of FB after FB going after him? Is it the process of improvement and we will soon see results?

If the latter the real question will be whether he can adjust once pitchers change their approach because they won't pump FBs down the middle if he starts to hit them. At least you'd imagine not.

[OttoC]

Great post - very insightful. At this point, do you think a correction is imminent for Ortiz?

According to baseball-reference.com play-by-play data, David Ortiz hit five balls described as line drives to right field (basehits and outs) in his at bats up to and including his home run. Since his home run, he has hit seven. Although my arithmetic is not strong enough to turn that into a 281 percent improvement, I do think that Ortiz, in his recent at bats, looks more like a slumping ballplayer rather than one who has lost it entirely.

[8 and 9 in Left]

Not cherry picking with data? Are you sure?

How about the fact that he hit .086/.135/.114 over those games. You going to completely ignore that? How about in those games he Ked in 37.1% of his AB? Compared to 24.6% before that. How about he's BBed in just 5.4% of his PA in those games, compared to 15.2% before.

Every pitcher he faces is simply throwing fastballs down the middle against him because they don't fear him at all. If he's hitting more LDs, it's more because of that than anything else, they are coming straight after him which is why his K rate has skyrocketed and his walk rates has collapsed.

Wait. They started throwing fastballs down the middle against him after he hit the HR, and they weren't doing that before the HR? That would counter EV's data, but I don't see that substantiated in your post.

[TheoShmeo]

In my view, the most interesting aspect of the Ortiz story is not David himself. The situation with him is just painful to watch, and like those who have pointed to his actual production over the last few weeks, I am not heartened much by his better outs of late and think that EV is overstating the extent to which the trends are positive. I hope I'm wrong on that latter point.

The most interesting aspect of all this for me is how the Sox have dealt with it and will deal with going forward. As has been mentioned, it's dangerous to just write Tiz off because we've all seen players just click back in. It's far from a perfect analogy by any means, but look at Teixeira's improved hitting over the last several weeks.

And it's easy to say "just get rid of him or bench him" but put yourself in Tito and Theo's shoes. Would you not have done exactly what they've done -- first, try days off and then move him down in the line up -- before benching or DLing him? Would you really just sit him down today or DFA him?

If this was really my decision to make, I'd make every effort to trade some combination of prospects and guys on the team for a quality offensive player and deal with the fall out with Ortiz. But that's very easy to say from the sidelines and without having to deal with whatever the ramifications would be. And it's not as if Theo isn't exploring those things right now. From the outside, though, my perception is that he values his prospects more than I would and is more tenative than I'd like him to be about making a deal.

My point/question is what would you do if the decision was yours?

[SoxFanSince57]

At one level if pitchers are increasingly throwing fastballs then they may be doing him a great favor. If he can increasingly sit on fastballs, then we should see him come out of this horrific slump. As we all know, there is nothing like a steady supply of fastballs to get a batter out of his slump.

IMO, David was totally screwed up dealing with change of speeds so if he is now seeing more fastballs he will be able to work his way out of the slump sooner.

I "kind of" hope he is starting to sit on fastballs, because I believe that he will eventually get his timing and confidence back. Too many fastballs from pitchers is almost like batting practice....so keep those fastballs coming.

[dcmissle]

In my view, the most interesting aspect of the Ortiz story is not David himself. ...

My point/question is what would you do if the decision was yours?

Agreed, and for this reason I'd view the problem as extending beyond Ortiz and this season. I'd operate from the assumption that Papi is at the end of the road, that Bay will not re-sign here, and maybe both. I'd then go about the serious business of adding a potent bat that can be counted on for 2009 and 2010, at least.

When? As soon as good deals can be made, but no sooner, which may mean not at all. This would entail dealing very significant prospects, maybe a starting player too, and there is no guarantee that players the RS are interested in are even available, much less at a reasonable price. Though it should be stressed that the RS are in possession of what we hear everyone always wants and is so hard to get, pitching, especially young pitching.

I think there is reason to believe the RS will take an approach resembling this one, as they are loathe to throw the towel in on any season and are certainly capable of bold strokes. And although the club is in remarkably good shape in the standings, I don't think anyone is under the illusion that the status quo can be successfully maintained. Yes, much time could be bought if Dice-K, Lester, and Beckett begin to perform as expected, and the RS become a dominant pitching team. But on the other side of the ledger, they could continue on their current paths, Tek could revert to form, or some other bat could go down. Then, they'd be in big immediate trouble.

[Eric Van]

I do think that Ortiz, in his recent at bats, looks more like a slumping ballplayer rather than one who has lost it entirely.

Bingo. Obviously he's not out of the woods, as evidenced by the elevated K rate. But there's no question he's hitting the ball much harder much more often over the last twelve days.

In today's game, he had a great swing the second time up and then it actually looked like he got overconfident or overeager and swung at pitcher's strikes his next two times up.

Edit: wow, I was definitely seeing what I wanted to see, because after looking at the pitch/fx data I see that both of the pitches he popped up were right down the middle. In fact, his results on pitches down the middle, at a quick glance, do not seem to be any better than previously. (If I have a chance I'll try to isolate which zones he has shown improvement in.) Which is consistent with my original conclusion:

He has still has a lot of work to do, but I see a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. There are a ton of aspects to hitting; it looks like he's fixed one big flaw and still has at least a few kinks to iron out.

Edited by Eric Van, 01 June 2009 - 12:01 AM.

[Alternate34]

I went to the 3 games at Toronto. I saw Ortiz take BP the last game and it was markedly different than previous years when I saw him take BP the last 3 years when I saw him for the Red Sox series in Minnesota. For the portion of BP when he's hitting to deep right, he is not getting loft on the ball. He would hit moonshots in MN. The HR he got in Toronto were short on loft.

The defense was playing him to shift and the liners at Overbay were when Overbay was playing up against the line IIRC with the 2B deep an shifted and the SS shifted. I wonder if his LD% compared to his hits may be effected by this and be lower than normal. Combined with less loft on hard hit balls, it would be very difficult to get the ball down the line, between the OF and the IF, or in the gap.

The Red Sox fans there were very supportive when he batted but were extremely pessimistic and dejected when talking about Ortiz. Maybe they will start booing him or maybe they will maintain their tortured support but crying in the closet.

[Guapos Toenails]

I havent watched every at-bat, but lately it looks like he taps the bat on his shoulder three times while he waits for the pitcher to deliver. Has he always done that?

[Foulkey Reese]

I havent watched every at-bat, but lately it looks like he taps the bat on his shoulder three times while he waits for the pitcher to deliver. Has he always done that?

Olney wrote about that today.

2. Terry Francona shook up his lineup, moving Dustin Pedroia to the lead-off spot and hitting J.D. Drew in the No. 2 spot. You have to wonder if another adjustment is coming with David Ortiz, who hit .143 in May and is currently on pace to hit three homers and drive in 63 runs for this season. Ortiz altered his set-up at the plate on Saturday, bouncing the bat gently on his left shoulder as the pitcher prepared to throw the ball, and he hit a double on Sunday -- but the bottom line continues to be that he is not generating much production. The next natural step for Francona would be to pick and choose the pitching matchups for the slumping slugger, sitting him down against pitchers he believes would be tough for Ortiz

That is the first time I have heard anybody mention Ortiz changing his stance.
http://insider.espn....me=olney_buster

[Ryo Sen]

I havent watched every at-bat, but lately it looks like he taps the bat on his shoulder three times while he waits for the pitcher to deliver. Has he always done that?

It's new. Rob Bradford had it yesterday:

“It’s something I brought up to him about four or five days ago and then all of a sudden (Saturday) he showed up doing it in his pre-game stuff,” said Magadan, who suggested the same approach to Sean Burroughs in San Diego, but the then-Padres’ third baseman didn’t take to it. “We started talking about it and I just told him, ‘Yeah, give it a shot.’”

The impetus for the shoulder tapping with the bat is so that Ortiz’ swing can start on more of a flat plane, instead of looping around too much, which has been a problem.

“We wanted to flatten his bat a little bit. It was getting a little too erect and he he loads it’s almost too late, so we wanted to flatten it a little bit,” Magadan explained. “I know people are sick and tired of hearing it, but his batting practices have been unbelievable.

“I just don’t want him to get to a point where he’s thinking about his stance and mechanics and all of that instead of focusing in on the baseball. It’s just a reminder for him.”

[pokey_reese]

Simmons post on the decline of Ortiz. http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=4223584

[Noah]

So, at what point do the Red Sox decide that Ortiz is toast and cut bait? Is there any way Ortiz is with the organization on August 1 (post trade deadline) if he's still hitting <.200/<.300/<.300? I don't think there's any way. It might even be sooner than that.

[Jack Sox]

So, at what point do the Red Sox decide that Ortiz is toast and cut bait? Is there any way Ortiz is with the organization on August 1 (post trade deadline) if he's still hitting <.200/<.300/<.300? I don't think there's any way. It might even be sooner than that.

So they just DFA him? Yeah, not happening. He'll go on the DL long before any drastic measure like that is taken. Ortiz has done enough for this franchise to not be outwardly humiliated in such a way. Yeah yeah, I know that the way he's hitting has been humiliating enough, but cutting/trading him? It's just not going to happen.

Frankly, I can't see any scenario where he doesn't finish out his contract with the Red Sox.

[Noah]

So they just DFA him? Yeah, not happening. He'll go on the DL long before any drastic measure like that is taken.

Ortiz has done enough for this franchise to not be outwardly humiliated in such a way. Yeah yeah, I know that the way he's hitting has been humiliating enough, but cutting/trading him? It's just not going to happen.

If he's hitting .200/.300/.300 while playing full time through late July, they could release him and I don't think anyone would fault the Red Sox for not being patient with him or for "humiliating" him.

Frankly, I can't see any scenario where he doesn't finish out his contract with the Red Sox.

If it comes late July and nothing has changed, the Red Sox have three options if they want to replace him with a productive DH:

1) DL him

Unless he's really injured (which he isn't to any extent, otherwise he would have been DL'ed a long time ago), there's no way they'll stash him on the disabled list with a phantom injury for the entire last two months of the season. Maybe for a two week vacation, but not for the remainder of the season.

2) bench him

Which does the team absolutely no good, especially since he can't play defense.

3) release him

And that leaves this as the only real option. Seriously, why not? If he's really toast, what good does it do keeping him around? Nobody would blame them.

[k-factory]

If he's hitting .200/.300/.300 while playing full time through late July, they could release him and I don't think anyone would fault the Red Sox for not being patient with him or for "humiliating" him.



If it comes late July and nothing has changed, the Red Sox have three options if they want to replace him with a productive DH:

1) DL him

Unless he's really injured (which he isn't to any extent, otherwise he would have been DL'ed a long time ago), there's no way they'll stash him on the disabled list with a phantom injury for the entire last two months of the season. Maybe for a two week vacation, but not for the remainder of the season.

2) bench him

Which does the team absolutely no good, especially since he can't play defense.

3) release him

And that leaves this as the only real option. Seriously, why not? If he's really toast, what good does it do keeping him around? Nobody would blame them.

Its not about anyone 'blaming' them. Its a matter of respect for the man which if anyone in the history of this franchise deserves its him. An outright release is far from a graceful end. I think they would only go that route if thats what Ortiz himself requests.
Far more likely they get a long DL stint with some dedicated time in Ft. Myers. At the end of the day it would be very hard to simply dismiss the potential of his bat. If your cost is sunk anyway why not see if some focused time away from the big club can help. At least there is some grace in that and potentially some benefit to everyone.

[jtn46]

Its not about anyone 'blaming' them. Its a matter of respect for the man which if anyone in the history of this franchise deserves its him. An outright release is far from a graceful end. I think they would only go that route if thats what Ortiz himself requests.
Far more likely they get a long DL stint with some dedicated time in Ft. Myers. At the end of the day it would be very hard to simply dismiss the potential of his bat. If your cost is sunk anyway why not see if some focused time away from the big club can help. At least there is some grace in that and potentially some benefit to everyone.

And it's important to remember that instead of exploring free agency where he could have gotten a huge contract, he signed a team-friendly deal to stay in Boston. Guy did the organization a big favor with that gesture.