647 replies to this topic

[TheoShmeo]

Maybe David Ortiz will soon snap out of it. Maybe he'll resume hitting shots to right field and home runs. Maybe what we're seeing now is just early season rust or kinks.

And, of course, the Sox have won 12 out of 13 with Ortiz hitting singles and doubles off the wall and mostly to the left side of the field. So it's not as if Ortiz is getting in the way of success.

But what happens if we assume, for the sake of discussion, that the David Ortiz we are seeing now is more or less the same guy we're going to see all season?

Some specific questions to frame the discussion:

1. Will the Sox replace him in the line-up at some point?

2. Will they first move him lower in batting order?

3. Should they do either of those things?

4. If so, how long should they wait?

5. Is the answer that they should do nothing as long as they are winning or is that just whistling past the grave yard? Asked differently, even though they are winning now, will having David Ortiz Lite eventually catch up with them if they don't acquire someone to give them more robust production in the DH/3-hole spot?

[hair and cheese]

Using Francona's track record as a gauge I do not ever see him hitting anywhere but third this year. Two key traits of Tito are letting veterans ride it out and very rarely changing the lineup. I just dont see Tito taking a chance and messing with his confidence. I do not ever see him being benched for more than maybe a rest against a tough lefty. Last April he hit .184 but had 5 bombs. I have a hunch his season is going to turn around when he gets to the new stadium Monday.

[yecul]

To me, it all depends on his health. If his wrist is still bothering him or if it has sapped his bat speed somehow then it's hard to say there should be expectation for him to improve drastically. It's not unprecidented at all for a player to hit a wall in this manner -- see Hafner for a convenient example.

Now, if he is healthy and at full strength, then maybe this is just some sort of funk or adjustment period. While he might not be old Ortiz he should be expected to improve in that case.

Edit -- What can the team do about it? Not a lot. He hasn't complained about injury so they can't put him on the DL unless he agreed to fake an injury for whatever reason. As a reserve player he's not terribly worthwhile and he's still an enormous star, so that's a factor. Moving him down in the order would help in an optimal lineup sense, but he'd still be a crappy bat wherever he hit if he remains at current production levels. The alternatives are someone like Carter or Baldelli (once healthy). Those don't seem like guys that they will be going out of their way to bench a star for.

Edited by yecul, 30 April 2009 - 08:09 AM.

[reggiecleveland]

It is alarming how bad he has looked. He has had some very good luck with weak flies finding the wall and landing between the outfielders too. He has hit a few line drives hard but he has not even come close to a HR. I don't recall him hitting a ball off the wall that looked like it had a chance or even a foul ball home run distance. Van Every's homer means 10 other Red Sox players have hit one homer, but not Ortiz.

There has been no indication of injury, he has not been flexing his hand and looking at it like he did in the playoffs last year. I know last year Papi spoke to Burrell because he had the same injury. Apparently he was told it took him one year to get his hand back to feeling the same. Maybe we have to sit through an entire year of this.

Yecul is right though that when you have a big star there is not much to do but hope.

[amarshal2]

what happens if we assume, for the sake of discussion, that the David Ortiz we are seeing now is more or less the same guy we're going to see all season?

I don't think this is the hypothetical you are looking to discuss. The answer to this question is that it would be simple; it’s time to move on. I don't care how big of a star he is, he's posting a .630 OPS. If that's his true talent level, he's done. They could start playing both Bailey and Carter in the DH spot and see if either of them take while simultaneously working the phones for a replacement. Finding a DH who can post a .850 OPS should not be terribly difficult.

But, the reality is that they don't know what David Ortiz they are going to get, so, everything I just said will not happen...at least not yet. This is what makes your following questions more interesting.

2. Will they first move him lower in batting order?

3. Should they do either of those things?

I really don't see how this is much of a benefit. The risks of alienating him and putting additional (not less, but more) pressure on him just don't seem to worth it. The line-up is cruising along with 4-7 crushing the ball and knocking each other in. Even Tek is helping out in the 8 spot.

4. If so, how long should they wait?

I don't know the answer. I believe we will see a David Ortiz who's better than the current Ortiz, I just don't know how much better. If he can get close to .850 and be a solid contributor there's little reason to look to replace him unless you can get a stud.

[yecul]

Are there hit charts for all stadiums or are they only available in that manner? I looked at the Fenway one for this year and he has nothing to deep right. Last year he was dead pull to right and went the other way, not much to right-center. In '07 he sprayed the ball all over the place.

Now, obviously we're dealing with some sample issues and whatnot, but with the wrist issue last year he probably guessed a lot more when he pulled the ball (thus more down the line) and now can't even do that.

The problem is that, barring any injury complaint, you can't just cut bait. If he's hurt then they will put him on the DL and surgery might be likely. If he's not hurt or the pain is mild enough where he wants to battle through it without telling anyone, then you are stuck just hoping it all turns out ok. Something is wrong. That usually means injury, especially when one that led to this exact problem took place less than a year ago. But who knows? That's just my speculation as I have seen zero reports of it.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

And, of course, the Sox have won 12 out of 13 with Ortiz hitting singles and doubles off the wall and mostly to the left side of the field. So it's not as if Ortiz is getting in the way of success.

I think this is probably what any decisions regarding his playing time and spot in the batting order will hinge on. He's looked old, impotent and overmatched at times, and it's hard to attribute the 0 HR to luck since he seems to have difficulties generating warning track power right now. At the same time, he's starting to get XBHs more frequently, and, curiously, he's got a nine game hitting streak going. He isn't Big Papi, but he isn't benchworthy right now given the available alternatives, and it may not even be worth moving down in the lineup. Insofar as the team is winning and Tito values consistency in the lineup, I'd be surprised if he's given much thought to the idea of dropping Papi down in order.

Edit--deleted misquoted stats.

Edited by P'tucket, rhymes with..., 30 April 2009 - 09:11 AM.

[kazuneko]

Lots of good hitters still down in the below .700 OPS territory with Ortiz: Matt Holiday .622, Derek Lee .566, BJ Upton .497, Jason Giambi .619, Magglio Ordonez .649, Josh Hamilton .661. It's still early, most of those guys are going to have good seasons. But it's no longer so early that any of us can pretend we're not thinking about it, every time he steps up to the plate these days.

I think that on a club with championship aspirations, if Ortiz is still south of .800 by the all star break we need to at least take a look at our options. This team has gotten where it is by being brutally unsentimental, and that's the right approach. But clearly at the moment Ortiz is a better bet to come around than anyone else we have, or anyone we could get at an acceptable price, and my guess is that will probably be true at the ASB as well.

But IMO it's time to move him down in the order. Ortiz is a professional, I'm sure he can handle it. It might take some pressure off, and it feels very odd to have our four best hitters right now batting 4-5-6-7 I'd move Youk up to third, Bay cleanup, Drew five, Lowell six and put Papi all the way down to seventh.

Edited by kazuneko, 30 April 2009 - 09:12 AM.

[OttoC]

I thought he looked pretty good at times in spring training games, driving the ball like he once did. Now, it looks like he's hitting more with his arms and upper body. If what we are seeing so far in the regular season is a precursor of the entire season, then he shouldn't be in the line-up; however, based on how long they went with an unknown quantity in Pedroia a couple of years ago, I cannot imagine they will give up on Ortiz any time soon.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Do you think Ortiz will be cool with batting 7th? He won't take that personally? I mean, it's one thing to talk about such a move, but realize that the player is going to be offended and it could have repurcussions. Is moving him to 7th going to reduce the pressure on him or call more attention to it If the A's suddenly moved Holliday to the #7 slot, how would you view that move? I mean, if Beckett has another crappy start tonight, would you move him to the pen?

I'm certainly concerned about Ortiz, more and more each day, but I don't think it's realistic to move him down in the lineup and expect that everyone is cool with that. It's not as if the team and lineup is struggling and needs a jolt. If it comes to a point where Ortiz is no longer going to be a key part of the batting order, than you probably need to dump him. I could be wrong, but I don't predict he'd be receptive to a reduced role.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 30 April 2009 - 09:18 AM.

[jodyreeddudley78]

I agree that it is far too early to say anything definitive far all the reasons stated above. But there are some signs of hope here. His numbers with Men On (about half of his PA) are pretty good, and his numbers with RISP (about 1/4 of his PA) are exactly what you would expect from a vintage Ortiz. I fully understand that any discussion has the caveat of SSS, but there is something to be optimistic about.

To me, the biggest concern is his strikeout and walk rates, particularly the walk rate.

[mabrowndog]

The options are limited, for the reasons already pointed out in this thread. More rest and a lower lineup spot are neither good nor likely choices. One thing I've wondered is does his continued presence in that slot serve as a detractor to Pedroia, the guy hitting in front of him? Are opposing hurlers more apt to pitch around the MVP knowing a badly slumping Papi is on deck? Regardless of the answer, it doesn't matter. Ortiz isn't going anywhere.

The frustrating thing about Ortiz is that when he slumps it decimates other aspects of his production. He walks far less because pitchers challenge him instead of fearfully painting the corners (the walk he drew Tuesday night was his first in 12 games). Opposing managers are less apt to employ the shift, marginalizing any potential random BIP gains from hitting to the other side of the field. And he puts pressure on himself by swinging at more bad pitches because he's consistently behind in the count.

As for the hits he's gotten to the opposite field, it's still early but this has been primarily a Fenway thing. In 9 road games he's had a seeing-eye single to LF in Anaheim; two singles to LF and a single and double to CF in Cleveland; and a single to CF and a double down the RF line in Oakland. That's three hits going the other way, and none were hard-hit.

Meanwhile through 12 games at Fenway he's had 5 arcing doubles off the LF wall, 2 singles to shallow LF, a wall triple to deep CF, a single to shallow CF, and a pair of singles to shallow RF.

The bottom line is that when he goes to LF, it's still with a lot of loft and not enough pop. Given the deeper fences of other parks, fielders generally have time to get under the ball and make the catch.

The only ball I can recall Ortiz hitting hard this season was the line-out to Cano over the weekend. He really creamed that one. Even the triple vs BAL in Fenway was more of a lofted ball than a power-driven liner, and one which a fielder more experienced than Felix Pie would have easily caught (it hit the wall about 3-4 feet above the ground). So not only has he not homered yet, but his lone three-bagger was a gift from the baseball gods.

I know it's a radical idea, but I'm curious if using a bat an ounce or two lighter would make any difference in at least catching up to the pitches he's missing badly on and pulling some inside stuff. Putting all the actual numbers and averages aside and just assessing what we see from his swings and BIP, his quality of contact has been downright dreadful.

Edited by mabrowndog, 30 April 2009 - 09:47 AM.

[Otis Foster]

Do you think Ortiz will be cool with batting 7th? He won't take that personally? I mean, it's one thing to talk about such a move, but realize that the player is going to be offended and it could have repurcussions. Is moving him to 7th going to reduce the pressure on him or call more attention to it If the A's suddenly moved Holliday to the #7 slot, how would you view that move? I mean, if Beckett has another crappy start tonight, would you move him to the pen?

I'm certainly concerned about Ortiz, more and more each day, but I don't think it's realistic to move him down in the lineup and expect that everyone is cool with that. It's not as if the team and lineup is struggling and needs a jolt. If it comes to a point where Ortiz is no longer going to be a key part of the batting order, than you probably need to dump him. I could be wrong, but I don't predict he'd be receptive to a reduced role.

I think this is a legitimate concern. He hasn't been a diva over the years, but there are some signs he isn't entirely a happy camper, witness his comments about needing more support behind him in the batting order. IIRC, that led to some comeback from Youk (remarkably restrained, given his personality). Now, if you switch Papi and Youk, what do you get?

I don't have a command of the statistics, only visual observation, but he looks like he's slow reacting to the pitch and as noted, is using his arms, which to me confirms that he's late getting into his swing. In an ideal world, I'd bring up Carter, see what he can do as DH, alternate him with Papi, but this isn't an ideal world, and Francona just won't do it.

Having said all that, he'll probably go on a real tear starting the next series.

[LoweSox]

Do you think Ortiz will be cool with batting 7th? He won't take that personally? I mean, it's one thing to talk about such a move, but realize that the player is going to be offended and it could have repurcussions. Is moving him to 7th going to reduce the pressure on him or call more attention to it If the A's suddenly moved Holliday to the #7 slot, how would you view that move? I mean, if Beckett has another crappy start tonight, would you move him to the pen?

Yeah, batting seventh is quite absurd actually. 'You've been a 40/130 threat for the last half-decade but given your performance last year (when every time you turned your bat over your wrist popped), and this April, it's time we turned the page on not only the David-Ortiz-as-lineup-core era but maybe even David-Ortiz-in-the-lineup-at-all one.' I understand adjusting a lineup on paper to take into account progression, performance and optimum matchups, but when there are real people and real egos involved, there's the potential for taking what might be an isolated slump/post-injury adjustment period that happens to correspond with performance regression because of age, and crystallizing it as the sign that the regression's going to be a lot harder and faster than you could have known. You're now the player people thought you were when Jeremy Giambi had your job.

Another startling thing in the last few games is the amount that Ortiz has been trying to go opposite field. He's not just getting behind pitches and miscuing them off the wall, he's actually swinging away, extending his swing, and trying to hit opposite field. He's been covering the plate more (has struck out once in his last twenty at-bats) and seems to be catching up with pitches a bit better. What's startling is that, though he's taken some cuts at some mistake pitches, gotten poor contact and fouled them off or blooped them in play, he hasn't been trying to slug himself back into things like he was when he was striking out 2-3 times a night. As with his performance overall, you can't look at it and say 'Oh, he's giving up on homeruns, so he must not be able to hit them anymore,' but just the same, maybe he's feeling that the timing/swing isn't right, and trying just to hit to wax it out.

Edited by LoweSox, 30 April 2009 - 09:51 AM.

[LondonSox]

While he was strugglign and looking terrible I don't understand why the Sox never gave Carter and ABs, give him a break get him in the cages working on stuff away from looking crap in games and hearing all the grumbling.

Bailey and Carter ARE big league hitters. Are they Big Papi no, but they are David Ortiz mark 3.0 (1.0 was a Twin). I understand loyalty, I understand if Ortiz turns it round he's better than any other option, but right now WHY let Carter rot for a month and then send him down and watch him even rusty hit 500 in his first half dozen games and not even CONSIDER using him?

Why is Van Every (result be damned) getting ABs over Bailey.

Free the Springfield two marge!
I mean free the Pawtucket duo

[kazuneko]

Do you think Ortiz will be cool with batting 7th? He won't take that personally?

I suspect that 1) David Ortiz is harder on himself than anyone on this board; 2) has enough maturity and life perspective to understand how important moving from third to seventh actually is in the scheme of things (that is, not even a tiny bit important); 3) even if he were slightly hurt, I don't think it would necessarily be a negative in terms of performanceand 4) he's really pressing right now, and dropping him in the order might cause him to relax a bit. I don't really understand why we treat professional baseball players as fragile emotional creatures who could suddenly crater if their feelings get a bit hurt, especially when we're talking about players who have never shown us anything other than total professionalism and emotional stability.

It's not like Ortiz isn't aware that he isn't playing well right now.

[Jnai]

I mentioned this in the gamethread last night, but The Book has an exercise where they slot the pitcher in various places in the lineup. Batting the Pitcher cleanup is worth about .1 runs per game, or about 15 runs per season. Which is about 1.5 wins.

That's just about as retarded a lineup as you could possibly conceive, and the net swing is 1.5 wins.

Basically, the moral of the story is: short of comparing the best possible lineup to the worst possible lineup, the net gains or losses from shifting around the batting order are so marginal that it's hardly worth it.

Assuming Ortiz hits at his current rate, moving him to the 7 hole is probably worth what... less than a half a win over the course of the season? So, for the lovely gain of half a win, you completely demoralize and piss off one of the guys you really need for the rest of the year.

[John DiFool]

Lots of good hitters still down in the below .700 OPS territory with Ortiz: Matt Holiday .622, Derek Lee .566, BJ Upton .497, Jason Giambi .619, Magglio Ordonez .649, Josh Hamilton .661. It's still early, most of those guys are going to have good seasons. But it's no longer so early that any of us can pretend we're not thinking about it, every time he steps up to the plate these days.

Hell, Giambi has looked completely washed up on at least 3 occasions over the last 5 seasons, only to inexplicably rise from his coffin and start murdering the ball again.

That said, some worrisome indicators. His K-W has gone all to hell (perhaps because nobody fears him anymore, FWTW). His popup percentage has more than doubled (in '07, only 4.4 popups; this year, 18.9%). BABIP and LD% are normal, so he needs homers (and fewer K's) to get the average up.

[TheoShmeo]

Assuming Ortiz hits at his current rate, moving him to the 7 hole is probably worth what... less than a half a win over the course of the season? So, for the lovely gain of half a win, you completely demoralize and piss off one of the guys you really need for the rest of the year.

While I take your points about the batting order and the impact on Ortiz, aren't you also assuming your own conclusion to some extent? Better stated, if Ortiz continues to hit as his current rate, do the Sox really need him at all?

I'm not suggesting that now is the time to bench or get rid of him, and without a better option, that would be foolish. But why exactly would they need Ortiz if he continued on this pace for the rest of 2009?

Edited by TheoShmeo, 30 April 2009 - 10:15 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'm not suggesting that now is the time to bench or get rid of him, and without a better option, that would be foolish. But why exactly would they need Ortiz if he continued on this pace for the rest of 2009?

Because Bay and Youkils won't have an OPS over 1200 of the entire year. Because Lowell and Tek may be offensively over their heads, etc. The Sox are 14-7 with nothing out of Dice-K, yet they'll still need him at some point. It's a long season.

[amarshal2]

2) has enough maturity and life perspective to understand how important moving from third to seventh actually is in the scheme of things (that is, not even a tiny bit important);

The dude thinks he needs a HOF caliber hitter behind him to produce. Seriously. He thinks Kevin Youkilis is not good enough. Why would you assume this?

4) he's really pressing right now, and dropping him in the order might cause him to relax a bit.

Just like it worked so well for ARod when Torre embarrassed him by dropping him in the order in the playoffs. There is no denying that dropping Ortiz in the order will call more attention to the situation. I guarantee they have a segment about it on BBTN and belabor the point next time the Red Sox are on a national game.

Edited by amarshal2, 30 April 2009 - 10:26 AM.

[TheoShmeo]

Because Bay and Youkils won't have an OPS over 1200 of the entire year. Because Lowell and Tek may be offensively over their heads, etc. The Sox are 14-7 with nothing out of Dice-K, yet they'll still need him at some point. It's a long season.

If Bay and Youks produce less, wouldn't that make Ortiz's current production level more rather than less of a problem?

You're ignoring Jnai's assumption that I adopted for the purpose of discussion that Ortiz will continue to hit at his current pace.

[TheRooster]

Given the thread title and the incredibly circumstantial evidence, I really thought someone would have mentioned steroids by now. To be clear, I absolutely hope that Tizzle never juiced, but if he had spent the past 7 years playing for some other team and had the numerical career arc he's had, I would be wondering. It is certainly possible that he's in a major slump OR that he's just gotten old. On the other hand if he was using and stopped a couple of years ago, that might explain a bit too.

[OCD SS]

The scenario I'm thinking about is Last year's Carlos Delgado who hit .198/ .297/ .323 in April and sputtered along in May and June until he erupted in July for a 1.160 OPS. His splits by half season:

First half: .248/ .328/ .455
Second half: .303./ .386/ .606

I think a lot of the same things that are being said about Papi now were being said about Delgado then. Unless there's an injury, and since moving him around won't be that much of a help, we probably just need to let Papi work through his issues.

[yecul]

Given the thread title and the incredibly circumstantial evidence, I really thought someone would have mentioned steroids by now. To be clear, I absolutely hope that Tizzle never juiced, but if he had spent the past 7 years playing for some other team and had the numerical career arc he's had, I would be wondering. It is certainly possible that he's in a major slump OR that he's just gotten old. On the other hand if he was using and stopped a couple of years ago, that might explain a bit too.

The acuteness and presence of the arm injury give plenty of explanation without speculating. The injury is the big key for me.

That said, it's certainly very possible. Everyone is suspect from those days and Ortiz is no different.

[Eric Van]

I mentioned this in the gamethread last night, but The Book has an exercise where they slot the pitcher in various places in the lineup. Batting the Pitcher cleanup is worth about .1 runs per game, or about 15 runs per season. Which is about 1.5 wins.

That's just about as retarded a lineup as you could possibly conceive, and the net swing is 1.5 wins.

Basically, the moral of the story is: short of comparing the best possible lineup to the worst possible lineup, the net gains or losses from shifting around the batting order are so marginal that it's hardly worth it.

Assuming Ortiz hits at his current rate, moving him to the 7 hole is probably worth what... less than a half a win over the course of the season? So, for the lovely gain of half a win, you completely demoralize and piss off one of the guys you really need for the rest of the year.

First of all, why is there talk of a drop to 7th when the obvious move, if there was one, would be to switch him with Drew (once he gets out of his own mini-funk)?

Secondly, Jnai is correct: the first rule of lineup construction is (within reason, of course) to bat each guy in the spot where he will put up the best numbers, in the cases where the spot affects the hitter. Bill Mueller hit mysteriously better 8th than elsewhere (the splits were so ridiculously big that they were much likelier to be the result of some quirky psychology than random), so he hit 8th even though there were worse hitters hitting ahead of him.

Papi will swap with Drew if and when (and only if and when) he and Tito agree that it would be good for Papi.

[reggiecleveland]

Given the thread title and the incredibly circumstantial evidence, I really thought someone would have mentioned steroids by now. To be clear, I absolutely hope that Tizzle never juiced, but if he had spent the past 7 years playing for some other team and had the numerical career arc he's had, I would be wondering. It is certainly possible that he's in a major slump OR that he's just gotten old. On the other hand if he was using and stopped a couple of years ago, that might explain a bit too.

I am trying to stay calm here but strength issues more often have to do with working out and injury than drugs. I almost put this in my post earlier but one problem maybe he could not lift post surgery. I know he is big soft bodied guy, but he still lifts to get strong. During the last WBC he complained the Dominican team had a poor weight-room at the training facility. The off season is when athletes get strong. A guy will lose strength as the season goes on, usually. (To build on Dog's lighter bat idea Ted Williams used a kighter bat later in the year when he was tired) That was one of the reasons juice changed performance so much, guys didn't break down and were a lot stronger all year. If Ortiz is pushing a lot less weight in the gym than he is used to this may have a mental effect on him at least. The hidden cost on an injury is the lost fitness.

For example almost crippled Curt Schilling, in great 04 shape, was a better pitcher than healthy ankle, no off season to train 05 Schilling. And as we saw with Schilling, an injury late in a career, even when it heals, can set back the fitness of a "big lug" significantly or even permanently.

This is one reason that I am not too optimistic about KG, even if can play, doing much this year.

The Yankees brass is convinced Wang's struggles come from a lack of fitness because he could not work out his legs after his injury.

Edited by reggiecleveland, 30 April 2009 - 11:18 AM.

[Todd Benzinger]

Given the thread title and the incredibly circumstantial evidence, I really thought someone would have mentioned steroids by now. To be clear, I absolutely hope that Tizzle never juiced, but if he had spent the past 7 years playing for some other team and had the numerical career arc he's had, I would be wondering. It is certainly possible that he's in a major slump OR that he's just gotten old. On the other hand if he was using and stopped a couple of years ago, that might explain a bit too.

As you can see in my sig, I am on the Ortiz-never-did-steroids bandwagon. But I'm not sure I would be more willing to believe he was a roider if he were on another team. His body is huge and strong, but he is more lumpy than cut (to put it kindly). AFAICT, the benefits of steroids and PEDs are what they add to your recovery time and workouts... So I think guys like Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder are unlikely suspects. Admittedly, Ortiz is the most buff of those three, but that's not saying much.

In fact, David Arias was more buff than David Ortiz.

IOW, while Ortiz may be suffering from a lack of weight training as Reggie suggests, there is little evidence that he has ever pushed his conventional training to the maximum, never mind trying to use PEDs to get beyond the unaided maximum. But I've never been in a gym in my life, so what do I know.

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 30 April 2009 - 11:31 AM.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'm really surprised people aren't focusing more on Papi's patience at the plate. This guy has walked a ton in the past, leading the league in 2006 and 2007, and walking 70 times in 109 games last year (all despite hitting in front of Manny, where dummy CW says he should be getting tons of fastballs, etc.).

He has a career walk percentage of 13.2 percent (and it hasn't been below 14 percent since 2004).

This year, however, he's 7.6 percent thus far. It's the OBP that's killing his OPS.

Even in the last 10 games, where he's been better, he's not walking at all - just one BB in 51 PA.

This line for the last 10 games - .283/.294/.457/.751 - would look a lot better if he was at his lifetime OBP of .381. He's only a lifetime .286 hitter.

If he put up a .283/.381/.457/.838 would we be crying for him to be moved out of the three hole? Maybe because of the lack of homers, but I think the lack of HR is a red herring. It's the lack of BB that I'm worried about.

[yecul]

He has a career walk percentage of 13.2 percent (and it hasn't been below 14 percent since 2004).

This year, however, he's 7.6 percent thus far. It's the OBP that's killing his OPS.

Even in the last 10 games, where he's been better, he's not walking at all - just one BB in 51 PA.

I see this as an indication that something real is wrong, he had no idea what it is, and is trying to swing his way out of it.

He's up there trying to whack the ball far and is failing at it. He has changed his approach to swing more.

I expect him to overcome that -- cranking a big HR will probably fix some of the psychological baggage -- and hit better, but Ortiz of the past is not going to hop in the time machine and show up all of a sudden, IMO.

[SoxFanSince57]

Age and/or injury (wrist) may be the "reasons" for Ortiz's declining performance. But I don't think they are, at least at this point.

I think David is in a batting slump. And I think it is being caused by a change in his hitting mechanics, specifically the movement of his hands. I am confident that most here have seen and will agree that David's "timing" is all messed up. That is painfully obvious to all. The guys on the TV said in one of the games that the Sox were working on making sure that David got his hands back prior to his swing. Apparently, his hand movement prior to starting his swing has changed and he is failing to get his hands back to a good load position. His hands may be the root cause of his timing problem and why he is not making decent contact with the ball.

This may be incorrect, but there are some signs that say it is a very reasonable assessment. First, Ortiz has a very pronounced set of hand movements prior to starting his swing. Whenever a player has a lot of extra movement it is a good place to look when he gets into a slump. (You would never teach a kid to move his hands like David does) Second, Ortiz's timing is clearly off and a change in his hand movement would certainly effect his timing.

For now, my eyes are on his swing mechanics and my ears are open to hearing what Dave Magadan and Ortiz have been doing and talking about.

My biggest worry is if Ortiz has lost his swing mechanics for good. The poster boy for that is Andruw Jones.

[Todd Benzinger]

I see this as an indication that something real is wrong, he had no idea what it is, and is trying to swing his way out of it.

He's up there trying to whack the ball far and is failing at it. He has changed his approach to swing more.

Isn't that a bit unfair? he was totally under water at the beginning of the year. Now he is methodically going to LF, and has a 9 game hit streak to show for it. He isn't getting on base, and he isn't slugging, but he is going up there with a plan and it is more or less working. And he doesn't really seem to be hacking away hoping to run into a HR as he was two weeks ago. Obviously, the plan is about getting himself on track more than it is about producing immediate results, but it does look like a plan. Let's give him some credit for making a terrible situation into a merely mediocre one.

As to not walking... it is troubling. But while he does seem to be getting more swings-and-misses on bad pitches, and not showing a terrific eye or patience, there is also the factor that pitchers have no incentive to try to pitch around him as they did in the past. The team's two most productive hitters come after him, so why not challenge him and try to keep him off base until he starts slugging again? the downside risk is a opposite-field single at the moment.

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 30 April 2009 - 12:11 PM.

[yecul]

That's a fair point. I guess I just want to see some sharp balls hit to RF at some point. It's a process, so I shouldn't put the cart before the horse. Can't complain about better results.

From lurker NDame616 :

Here is a slighly altered post I made in the sandbox thread about Ortiz:

The Ortiz comments are a little strange considering it's during an 8 game hitting streak when he's batting .333, hit 6 of his season's 7 2Bs and actually has a 3B. After two weeks and a >.200 BA we started our concern but chalked up to SSS....now he's at least hitting a bit and that's when we restart the discussion?

"Throwing in the towel" may be a bit harsh for what the Sox need to do. We need to throw in the towel in Lopez, not Ortiz. "Adjusting to meet his new skill set" may be a better phrase. I don't think he will drop to 6, but maybe 5 is an option if he is, in fact, losing some power and is humble enough to agree to that. But, as stated, batting order is a bit overrated and it may not be worth it in the long run.

Yea, he's slugging what most people have as an OBP...but his slugging IS up nearly 60 pts. His OPS has climbed 200 pts in the past week. Everything is a SSS, and he probably has lost his power, but I don't know if Bailey or Carter would provide much more....and the net negative of a benching a healthy/fictionally DL'ed Ortiz may be more than we think.

It looks like he is still a viable ML DH, but he is't going to be a feared hitter like he used to be. This'll cause more pitchers to go after HIM to avoid going to Youks. This could work out in his benefit. However, I don't think we need a plan B....Ortiz ver. 2009 IS plan B. Plan A was Ortiz ver. 2003-2007. We don't have that right now and may never again, so now we are on to the "new" David Ortiz....

Look at other team's DHs, and the "new" Ortiz is certainly comparable: Burrell in TB, Damon/Posada/Matsui in NY, Kubel in MN, etc. Very few top teams are trotting out a 1.000 OPS guy for the DH slot.

[Ananti]

Yes, I think the fact he's not walking is because pitchers aren't being as careful to him. When he was hitting 40 bombs they tried to be fine with him and didn't want to challenge him. Now if they fall behind they just throw it down the middle and dare him to hit it, and so far he hasn't really hurt them.

[smastroyin]

Changing his spot in the batting order is pretty much useless unless it would affect him positively psychologically, which I doubt. Whether or not he is needed, I think we can say with pretty decent certainly that lineup position is one place where a manager should cater to ego (and some certain platoon strategies) rather than try to be tactically perfect. The value of the latter is so small that the koombaya in the clubhouse and making his life a little easier is probably better, even if the team is worse on the field. I know that the counterargument is that anything you can do to pull a marginal fraction of a win is worth it because you could miss the playoffs by a game, so I'm not trying to imply people shouldn't suggest it, I just don't think it's worth it.

[Sprowl]

Isn't that a bit unfair? he was totally under water at the beginning of the year. Now he is methodically going to LF, and has a 9 game hit streak to show for it. He isn't getting on base, and he isn't slugging, but he is going up there with a plan and it is more or less working. And he doesn't really seem to be hacking away hoping to run into a HR as he was two weeks ago. Obviously, the plan is about getting himself on track more than it is about producing immediate results, but it does look like a plan. Let's give him some credit for making a terrible situation into a merely mediocre one.

As to not walking... it is troubling. But while he does seem to be getting more swings-and-misses on bad pitches, and not showing a terrific eye or patience, there is also the factor that pitchers have no incentive to try to pitch around him as they did in the past. The team's two most productive hitters come after him, so why not challenge him and try to keep him off base until he starts slugging again? the downside risk is a opposite-field single at the moment.

Walks are arguably a by-product of effectiveness at the bat, not a goal in themselves. Youks is providing quite a bit of protection these days, so pitchers are definitely more willing to challenge Ortiz. Methodically changing his approach to go to the opposite field seems like a sound adjustment when the regular approach is failing, and the proximity of the Monster means that Papi may be able to increase perceptions of the downside risk from a single to a double or HR by playing pepper off or over the wall. Ortiz pursued a similar strategy of going the opposite way during a period in 2007 when his knee was hurting and his RF drives were dying on the warning track, and it contributed to a season that may have been his best (OPS 1.066, even if his home runs declined from 54 to 35). We may never get 30+ homers from Papi again, but there's still room to hope for increased effectiveness at the bat. He's a smart man who seems willing to make adjustments. I just hope he still has the eyes and the reflexes to make the opposite-field stroke work.

[LoweSox]

My biggest worry is if Ortiz has lost his swing mechanics for good. The poster boy for that is Andruw Jones.

Bot 9th: Texas- A. Jones homered to deep left

Leading a very good Rangers offense in batting average right now, too, so it's not just some meatballs he's making contact with.

Moral: it's not ever when we say it's over.

[TheYellowDart5]

Bot 9th: Texas- A. Jones homered to deep left

Leading a very good Rangers offense in batting average right now, too, so it's not just some meatballs he's making contact with.

Moral: it's not ever when we say it's over.

Of course, that comes after two years wherein Jones did nothing but strike out and apparently consume only wedding cakes.

Let's hope that Ortiz doesn't have to wander in the wilderness for that long before finding his stroke again.

[Comeback Kid]

Of course, that comes after two years wherein Jones did nothing but strike out

Andruw did hit 26 HR in 2007... I would take 26 HR from Papi this season. It would be an improvement on 2008, at least.

[xjack]

At some point, these homer-less streaks become more about psychology than ability. I suspect we're at that point already with Papi.

In 1988, Jim Rice went homer-less through June 13th. He hit zero home runs during his first 199 plate appearances, only to hit 15 over the next 343. On June 14th, Rice hit two homers, and he and John McNamara were whooping it up in the duguout so much you'd have thought that they'd just won the World Series.

Since I live in NY, I don't get NESN, but I'm curious whether Rice has talked at all about his own homer-less streak in the context of what Ortiz is now going through.

[Ananti]

At some point, these homer-less streaks become more about psychology than ability. I suspect we're at that point already with Papi.

In 1988, Jim Rice went homer-less through June 13th. He hit zero home runs during his first 199 plate appearances, only to hit 15 over the next 343. On June 14th, Rice hit two homers, and he and John McNamara were whooping it up in the duguout so much you'd have thought that they'd just won the World Series.

Since I live in NY, I don't get NESN, but I'm curious whether Rice has talked at all about his own homer-less streak in the context of what Ortiz is now going through.

Rice also put up an OPS+ of 70 the following year and then retired.

So it seems to me the first half of 1988 was more indicative and the second half of 1988 was the aberration for Rice.

So yeah, it's about ability.

I'm not saying psychology is not a factor. But I think at some point it become harder and harder to attribute everything to a slump/psychology/mechanics, and you have to wonder about ability.

[paulftodd]

At some point, these homer-less streaks become more about psychology than ability. I suspect we're at that point already with Papi.

In 1988, Jim Rice went homer-less through June 13th. He hit zero home runs during his first 199 plate appearances, only to hit 15 over the next 343. On June 14th, Rice hit two homers, and he and John McNamara were whooping it up in the duguout so much you'd have thought that they'd just won the World Series.

And Jim Rice hit 3 HR in 208 AB in 1989 and retired. I think we have to be patient, see what the warm weather brings, but I think that wrist is behind it all. Not sure he is able to do the weight training he used to, he is looking, well, not so strong.

[xjack]

Obviously Rice was in serious decline. I'd argue he'd been in decline since 1980. That's not the point. All I'm saying is that these hitless or homerless streaks sometimes take on a life of their own.

[Foulkey Reese]

It's May 1st and his OPS is now 604.

There really isn't anything that they can do at this point. Just have to hope that he finally finds something and gets going.

[Ananti]

Hope is not a plan.

They better be doing more than just hoping he comes back, they better be working on a contingency.

[Sprowl]

Hope is not a plan.

They better be doing more than just hoping he comes back, they better be working on a contingency.

Would that be Chris Contingency Carter? That's not much hope, but it is a plan.

[paulftodd]

Hope is not a plan.

They better be doing more than just hoping he comes back, they better be working on a contingency.

But do you really need or want a full time DH if Papi was not around . Might you not yield more dividends from having Lowell, Drew, Tek getting more days off and hitting at DH while being rested, and giving guys like Green, Kottaras, Bailey and Van Every more playing time and AB's. And then there is Chris Carter.

They still managed to go 14-8 even with Papis power slump, and he has not been completely useless. I mean, they almost spent 180 million for a guy currently hitting 189 and with fewer RBI's with the MFY than Papi. He was supposed to be protection in case Papi did not deliver this year, and would have meant trading Lowell, the team leader in RBI's.

[Blacken]

But do you really need or want a full time DH if Papi was not around . Might you not yield more dividends from having Lowell, Drew, Tek getting more days off and hitting at DH while being rested, and giving guys like Green, Kottaras, Bailey and Van Every more playing time and AB's. And then there is Chris Carter.

I'd scream "Lars Anderson," but I don't want to be torn apart by the angry mob.

[Quintanariffic]

I'd scream "Lars Anderson," but I don't want to be torn apart by the angry mob.

At this point, you may be better off screaming "Josh Reddick".

[SoxFanPJ]

If Ortiz fails to pick up the pace of his production you are faced with two issues going forward.

First, Ortiz is under contract at least through 2010, making $12.5M this season and next, and the team has a 2011 team option for $12.5M. So whether he evolves in to a more reduced role or timeshare at DH or not, it seems likely we will have Papi on the roster for almost 2 more years.

Second, How do you replace that production? Internally there isn't a ton of options. Increased playing time for Bailey or calling Carter back up. Externally, there may be some trade candidates. One guy who because of health history and contract would seem to have a low acquisition cost may be Nick Johnson-1B of the Nationals.

Johnson is making $5.5M in the final year of his deal and has basically been out of baseball for 2 full years in what should be his prime because of inuries. He is currently putting up a .338 .407 .442 .849 line with an uncharacteristic BB/K ratio of 8/15. In his last fully healthy season of 2006 he put up a .948 OPS and has always been an on base machine. Seems like a guy who may benefit from being a part time DH and part time 1B instead of a full time 1B, in an attempt to take a little stress of his body and try to keep him healthy.