8 replies to this topic

[drtooth]

Currently 8-14, last place in the AL East, 6.5 GB

4/30--Josh Beckett vs Matt Garza (1-2, 4.97)

5/1--Justin Masterson vs Andy Sonnanstine (0-3, 7.79)

5/2--Tim Wakefield vs Jeff Niemann (2-2, 4.43)

5/3--Brad Penny vs TBA according to mlb.com--Probably James Shields (2-2, 3.74)

The Rays have not won a series since opening the season winning 2 of 3 at Fenway. Some of the issues at play so far:

1. Starting pitching. Way too many walks. Only Shields has a BB/9 under 3.00 Sonnanstine walked 37 in 193.1 IP last year. He already has 8 BB (3.66 BB/9) in 19.2 IP. Garza and Niemann are both well over 4.00 BB/9.

2. Bullpen. Two of the main setup men out of the pen, Dan Wheeler and Grant Balfour, have been a disaster early on (combined 13.1 IP, 12 R). Percival (though pitching) is not the dominant closer he once was.

3. Offense--Either hit or miss. They either score 8-10 runs or they score 1-2.


No reason that the Sox can't take 3 of 4. The only pitching match-up that worries me is the Sunday Shields vs Penny.

[smastroyin]

I'll be honest, all of these matchups are scary to me. Until the Sox prove that they can muster some kind of offense against Garza and Sonnanstine I won't write them off. Honestly I will be happy with a split. These guys aren't as bad as they've been pitching, and frankly they seem to get well against the Red Sox consistently.

When was the last time there was a Sox-Rays series where Kazmir was active but didn't have a start? A rare occasion indeed.

[yecul]

Splitting a 4-game road series against a talented team would be a good outcome.

I like Wakefield's game during his strong streak, so taking one of the first two will set them up to split or even take the series. Beckett starting to throw consistently well would really help for this series and would be a nice sign going forward.

Getting to Sonnanstine after last year would be nice.

[behindthepen]

b-ref data is a day old, so this is all I've got.

Sheet1

thru 4/28	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	PA	Ptn%	HR%	SO%	BB%	K/BB	XBH%	X/H%	GB/FB
James Shields	.238	.304	.437	.741	.233	138	50%	4.4%	12.3%	8.0%	1.5	9.4%	43%	0.91
Matt Garza	.209	.315	.374	.688	.242	108	56%	2.8%	22.2%	13.0%	1.7	7.4%	42%	0.66
Jeff Niemann	.247	.347	.424	.770	.250	98	52%	4.1%	13.3%	11.2%	1.2	7.1%	33%	0.52
*Scott Kazmir	.220	.319	.378	.697	.242	94	77%	3.2%	18.1%	12.8%	1.4	7.5%	39%	0.71
Andy Sonnanstine	.333	.398	.488	.886	.397	93	54%	1.1%	16.1%	8.6%	1.9	9.7%	32%	0.55
thru 4/28	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	PA	Ptn%	HR%	SO%	BB%	K/BB	XBH%	X/H%	GB/FB
Lance Cormier	.286	.355	.357	.712	.314	62	53%	0.0%	8.1%	9.7%	0.8	4.8%	19%	1.32
Joe Nelson	.152	.282	.273	.555	.190	39	64%	2.6%	28.2%	15.4%	1.8	5.1%	40%	0.29
*J.P. Howell	.273	.324	.364	.688	.391	38	84%	0.0%	29.0%	5.3%	5.5	7.9%	33%	1.09
Dan Wheeler	.290	.313	.645	.958	.273	32	47%	9.4%	18.8%	3.1%	6.1	15.6%	56%	0.39
Grant Ball Four	.292	.438	.375	.813	.368	32	38%	0.0%	18.8%	21.9%	0.9	6.3%	29%	0.8
*Brian Shouse	.250	.250	.393	.643	.250	28	54%	3.6%	10.7%	0.0%		7.1%	29%	4
Troy Percival	.318	.400	.500	.900	.333	25	48%	4.0%	12.0%	12.0%	1.0	8.0%	29%	0.36
Team Total	.253	.335	.416	.750	.281	787	57%	2.9%	16.7%	10.3%	1.6	8.0%	36%	0.74
thru 4/28	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	PA	Ptn%	HR%	SO%	BB%	K/BB	XBH%	X/H%	GB/FB
League Average	.266	.340	.425	.766	.299		55%	2.9%	17.0%	9.4%	1.8	8.0%	34%	0.75

Offensively, their hitting line is just about league average, but their run production of 4.5 is a little below. Their hitting line at home is also low, but they've only had one home series of 7 games (vs. nyy and CHW).

Sheet2

Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	PA	HR	BB	SO
C	Shawn Riggans	.250	.250	1.000	1.250	205	4	1	0	0
3B	Evan Longoria	.365	.422	.703	1.124	186	83	5	8	16
UT	Ben Zobrist#	.275	.356	.650	1.006	154	45	4	5	12
1B	Carlos Pena*	.256	.333	.667	1.000	152	87	9	9	24
SS	Jason Bartlett	.378	.418	.541	.958	147	79	3	4	9
2B	Akinori Iwamura*	.296	.359	.394	.753	96	78	0	7	17
OF	Gabe Kapler	.219	.306	.406	.712	83	36	0	4	6
DH	Pat Burrell	.238	.364	.317	.681	79	77	1	13	13
LF	Carl Crawford*	.274	.333	.345	.679	77	93	0	7	19
RF	Gabe Gross*	.188	.350	.313	.663	74	40	1	8	8
CF	Matthew Joyce*	.100	.250	.400	.650	65	12	1	1	2
CF	B.J. Upton	.151	.297	.189	.486	30	64	0	11	19
UT	Willy Aybar#	.160	.214	.240	.454	18	28	0	2	5
C	Dioner Navarro#	.176	.188	.265	.453	16	70	1	1	14
C	Michel Hernandez	.222	.222	.222	.444	16	9	0	0	1
--	--	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	PA	HR	BB	SO
	Team Totals	.259	.335	.438	.773	99	805	26	80	165
	Rank in 14 AL teams	9	8	6	7			5	6	3

[JimD]

I'll be honest, all of these matchups are scary to me. Until the Sox prove that they can muster some kind of offense against Garza and Sonnanstine I won't write them off. Honestly I will be happy with a split. These guys aren't as bad as they've been pitching, and frankly they seem to get well against the Red Sox consistently.

My thoughts exactly - the Rays are certainly not afraid of the Sox, and frankly may be looking to recapture some of that 2008 magic against their rivals.

Edited by JimD, 30 April 2009 - 03:04 PM.

[trekfan55]

Wait a second, it's a four game set and the Sox don't get tp face Kazmir? I thought that was some sort of federal law or something.

But right I guess Andy freaking Sonnanstine is worse, he of the 7.79 ERA who seems to transform into a mixture of Cy Young nad Walter Johnson every time he faces the Sox.

[patinorange]

My thoughts exactly - the Rays are certainly not afraid of the Sox, and frankly may be looking to recapture some of that 2008 magic against their rivals.

Last night was a hell of a start.

[irinmike]

Garza could be an elite pitcher for sure if he only faced the Sox all season.

[drtooth]

The interesting part of tonight's game will be to see if Tampa continues it's pattern of offensive outburst followed by little to no offense.

1. Score 11 runs on 4/12 vs O's and 15 the next day vs NY (home opener), then go on to score 2, 3 and 2 runs in the next 3 games.

2. Rays get 6 vs the White Sox and then score 3, 2 and 2 runs after that.

3. 4/22 Rays plate 9 runs then are shutout the next day.

4. 4/24 Tampa gets 9 vs A's and the score 3 in the next 2 games combined.

5. 4/27 Rays get 7 runs vs Twins then plate 3 in each of the next 2 games.

This has pretty much been and all-or-nothing offense the entire season, so far.