[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Doc Zero, on Apr 28 2009, 11:53 PM, said:

Re: Lugo

This is pretty much exactly how I envisioned his return. A few key ABs, but in the end, he finds interesting ways to botch simple plays in the field. Just abysmal.

Yup, I agree. But I can't blame Lugo too much, he can't help it that he sucks, and our infield corps necessitates playing Lugo because there is probably no better option available. But the use of Lopez in this situation--or any situation that matters--is inexcusable when MDC and Papelbon are available. Heck, the existence of Lopez on the roster is inexcusable. One thing the Sox organization has in abundance is pitching...there really is no excuse for keeping Lopez around unless it's to clean toilets and sweep up Francona's chew from the dugout.

[reggiecleveland]

Lugo's play was worse. It was under less stress it was 7-1 and he has 10 mill in the bank. Lopez has to be wondewreing when his last day is coming so he choked. I hope they both die but Luzo's play turned a laugher into a game. He makes that play and Fatty gets us at least one more inning.

This post has been edited by reggiecleveland: 28 April 2009 - 11:05 PM

[John DiFool]

I'll give credit for Lugo getting on base 3 times, but that's as far as I am willing to go. He simply isn't anything close to a championship-quality ballplayer.

[Bongorific]

John DiFool, on Apr 29 2009, 12:09 AM, said:

I'll give credit for Lugo getting on base 3 times, but that's as far as I am willing to go. He simply isn't anything close to a championship-quality ballplayer.

I'll do you one better.

Julio Lugo is my least favorite Red Sox player of all time. I'd rather have Carl Everett.

[JulE6]

Bongorific, on Apr 29 2009, 12:38 AM, said:

I'll do you one better.

Julio Lugo is my least favorite Red Sox player of all time. I'd rather have Carl Everett.

Everett hit .300 with 34 HR and 108 RBI for us in 2000. If you even had to debate that...

I'd take Jeff frickin Frye over Lugo right about now

[Quintanariffic]

JulE6, on Apr 28 2009, 11:48 PM, said:

I'd take Jeff frickin Frye over Lugo right about now

With the blown ACL even.

[Manzivino]

Lest it get lost in all of the well deserved Lugo/Lopez hatred, let's not forget that if Saito doesn't put a fastball on a tee for a guy OPSing .620 we might have seen a real pitcher in the ninth. This wasn't a case of a guy hitting a good pitch, Saito badly missed his location; Varitek set up low and outside and the pitch was belt-high on the inner third of the plate.

[Beomoose]

God they're bad. Can we trade them to another team for nothing, as in you get these two assholes and we get the peace of mind that they'll never wear our uniform again?

[Eric Van]

In his return to the lineup, Julio Lugo was the offensive star for the Red Sox, easily leading the team in WPA. He had the key hit in the go-ahead rally in the 2nd (after just missing a 2-run bomb by feet) and a huge hit in the 7th, and all in all looked very good at the plate.

He also made a damaging error in the field, but even assuming the GDP on that play the negative impact of the play was easily less than the positive impact of his offense. The only members of the Boston Red Sox who did more positively to help keep the win streak going were Ramon Ramirez, Hunter Jones, Jason Varitek, and Jason Bay.

Here is the WPA of the game after adjusting for the three errors, assuming the GDP in both cases.

1. Javier Lopez, - .357, breaking down -.500 fielding and +.143 pitching. (So why exactly does this outing argue that he should never pitch again?)

However, Javier Lopez would not have been in the game at that point if it weren't for:

2. Mike Lowell, -.333 (a more damaging error, without the excuse of inactivity, and a brutal day at the plate, and the actual obvious goat of the game)
3. Takashi Saito, -.220
4. Nick Green, -.184
5. Brad Penny, -.179 (the two errors behind him were -.206 Lowell, -.159 Lugo = -.365)
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, -.130
7. J.D. Drew, -.039
8. David Ortiz, -.026

The positive contributors:

1. Ramon Ramirez, +.199
2. Hunter Jones, +.185
3. Jason Varitek, +.184
4. Jason Bay, + .154
5. Julio Lugo, +.096
6. Hideki Okajima, +.077
7. Dustin Pedroia, +.049
8. Kevin Youkilis, +.024

I understand that people react emotionally and the human brain is wired to blame Lugo much more than Lowell, because when events happen in succession the brain assumes causality. Bat Julio Lugo did not cause Brad Penny to give up a 3-run bomb to the #9 hitter after his error, and Mike Lowell did not cause Penny to fan Grady Sizemore after his error and give up no further hits in the inning. That created a huge disparity in the apparent impact of the two errors, but the Lowell error in that situation is plainly more damaging, given equal subsequent performance by the pitcher. And one guy killed us at the plate, and the other guy came up huge.

I won't be responding to counterarguments*, because there aren't any rational ones. I would like to think that cooler heads will prevail here.

(*Unless you consider "ignore user" a sort of response. )

[Stitch01]

Eric Van, on Apr 29 2009, 02:00 AM, said:

In his return to the lineup, Julio Lugo was the offensive star for the Red Sox, easily leading the team in WPA. He had the key hit in the go-ahead rally in the 2nd (after just missing a 2-run bomb by feet) and a huge hit in the 7th, and all in all looked very good at the plate.

He also made a damaging error in the field, but even assuming the GDP on that play the negative impact of the play was easily less than the positive impact of his offense. The only members of the Boston Red Sox who did more positively to help keep the win streak going were Ramon Ramirez, Hunter Jones, Jason Varitek, and Jason Bay.

Here is the WPA of the game after adjusting for the three errors, assuming the GDP in both cases.

1. Javier Lopez, - .357, breaking down -.500 fielding and +.143 pitching. (So why exactly does this outing argue that he should never pitch again?)

However, Javier Lopez would not have been in the game at that point if it weren't for:

2. Mike Lowell, -.333 (a more damaging error, without the excuse of inactivity, and a brutal day at the plate, and the actual obvious goat of the game)
3. Takashi Saito, -.220
4. Nick Green, -.184
5. Brad Penny, -.179 (the two errors behind him were -.206 Lowell, -.159 Lugo = -.365)
6. Jacoby Ellsbury, -.130
7. J.D. Drew, -.039
8. David Ortiz, -.026

The positive contributors:

1. Ramon Ramirez, +.199
2. Hunter Jones, +.185
3. Jason Varitek, +.184
4. Jason Bay, + .154
5. Julio Lugo, +.096
6. Hideki Okajima, +.077
7. Dustin Pedroia, +.049
8. Kevin Youkilis, +.024

I understand that people react emotionally and the human brain is wired to blame Lugo much more than Lowell, because when events happen in succession the brain assumes causality. Bat Julio Lugo did not cause Brad Penny to give up a 3-run bomb to the #9 hitter after his error, and Mike Lowell did not cause Penny to fan Grady Sizemore after his error and give up no further hits in the inning. That created a huge disparity in the apparent impact of the two errors, but the Lowell error in that situation is plainly more damaging, given equal subsequent performance by the pitcher. And one guy killed us at the plate, and the other guy came up huge.

I won't be responding to counterarguments*, because there aren't any rational ones. I would like to think that cooler heads will prevail here.

(*Unless you consider "ignore user" a sort of response. )

Im no expert, but I think Lugo has wired our brains to blame him through two seasons of shitty replacement level play and that botching a little league level DP turn makes people loathe the third shitty season of replacement level play that's likely in store.

[JohntheBaptist]

Stitch01, on Apr 29 2009, 02:56 AM, said:

Im no expert, but I think Lugo has wired our brains to blame him through two seasons of shitty replacement level play and that botching a little league level DP turn makes people loathe the third shitty season of replacement level play that's likely in store.

I'm pretty sure he said there would be no counter-arguments, Stitch. He was very clear.

[roundegotrip]

If you want to point out that Lugo had a good night at the plate, or that in a vacuum his error was no more damaging than Lowell's, or that overall he contributed positively, that's one thing, and I appreciate that. But please don't talk down to SoSH's baseball viewing public for reacting negatively to a poor defensive play by a guy who had 16 errors in 79 starts and a .945 fielding% (and who was the worst SS in the majors at turning the double play) last season.

We all know that he's not going to get on base 3 times every night, and we all know that he is a defensive liability at shortstop. Generally, we know what we're going to get from Julio Lugo this season, and one thing we aren't going to get is a positive WPA. He is predictably bad, and the negative reactions stem from the fact that tonight's error is just a foreshadowing of predictably bad things to come.

This post has been edited by roundegotrip: 29 April 2009 - 02:15 AM

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Eric Van, on Apr 29 2009, 01:00 AM, said:

Bat Julio Lugo did not cause Brad Penny to give up a 3-run bomb to the #9 hitter after his error, and Mike Lowell did not cause Penny to fan Grady Sizemore after his error and give up no further hits in the inning. That created a huge disparity in the apparent impact of the two errors, but the Lowell error in that situation is plainly more damaging, given equal subsequent performance by the pitcher.

This is where WPA should not be used. All errors are not created equal, I don't care what fangraphs says. That's like saying Buckner's error is comparable to say, an error in the first inning of a game, but nobody ends up scoring. IMO, you have to take subsequent performance into account. With Lugo's error, which should have been a fairly easily double play considering DeRosa's speed. Lugo's error cost the team four runs compared to Lowell's error that cost two runs. The fact or the matter is, had both plays been completed, the team would not have given up a run and it's a 8-2 game going into the 9th. The Sox should be riding a 12 game win streak, and Lugo's defensive miscue is the most damaging play of the game. It's not even close.

This post has been edited by TheGoldenGreek33: 29 April 2009 - 02:15 AM

[TheYellowDart5]

Eric Van, on Apr 29 2009, 02:00 AM, said:

1. Javier Lopez, - .357, breaking down -.500 fielding and +.143 pitching. (So why exactly does this outing argue that he should never pitch again?)

Maybe because he let the leadoff man reach and then bobbled an absolutely routine toss to first to lose the game? Hell, one of the outs he got was on a sacrifice because Eric Wedge is apparently too stupid to realize that you shouldn't be giving away outs against a pitcher who can't throw a strike to save his life.

Quote

However, Javier Lopez would not have been in the game at that point if it weren't for:

This is fun. So Javier Lopez isn't the agent of defeat, just an unwitting part of a collapse that had been set in motion innings before he fucked up.

He was in the game. He failed. I don't care how he ended up in the game or who failed before him—his only job is to get outs without giving up runs. If he can't do that (which, recently, it really seems like he can't), then he shouldn't be on the team.

Quote

2. Mike Lowell, -.333 (a more damaging error, without the excuse of inactivity, and a brutal day at the plate, and the actual obvious goat of the game)

Mike Lowell threw away a potential double play ball. If he had made the throw, there would've been a runner on third (Peralta) with two out. Fransisco was flying up the line, so let's say all Lowell does is get the forceout at 2B. So it's 1st and 3rd, 1 out. There's still a chance of a run scoring that inning even if Lowell does his job perfectly.

Lugo dropped a tailor-made DP ball with two on and one out. If he doesn't drop the ball and turns the DP (which, given that this is Julio Lugo we're talking about, is pretty damn unlikely), inning's over. There's zero chance of a run scoring that inning if Lugo does his job perfectly.

So how in any sense is Mike Lowell's error more harmful? In both cases, runs scored as a result of the misplay. But if Lowell does his job, Penny still needs to get one more batter and probably two with men on base (and no slouches, either, in Sizemore and Cabrera). If Lugo does his job, Penny's out of a jam and the Indians don't get four runs.

Quote

I understand that people react emotionally and the human brain is wired to blame Lugo much more than Lowell, because when events happen in succession the brain assumes causality. Bat Julio Lugo did not cause Brad Penny to give up a 3-run bomb to the #9 hitter after his error, and Mike Lowell did not cause Penny to fan Grady Sizemore after his error and give up no further hits in the inning. That created a huge disparity in the apparent impact of the two errors, but the Lowell error in that situation is plainly more damaging, given equal subsequent performance by the pitcher. And one guy killed us at the plate, and the other guy came up huge.

Again: How is it more damaging? Both errors extended the inning, but only Lugo had a chance to end an inning and keep any runs from scoring. Yes, Penny was atrocious; at the end of the day, most of the blame is his. But Lugo's error gifted the Indians FOUR RUNS. If he makes a simple, easy, Little League play, the Indians don't score, the Sox stay up 7-3, and maybe we're talking about a 12-game winning streak and the chance at another sweep instead of doing the usual "Lugo is a blight on earth" song and dance.

But of course, you, the majestic Eric Van, won't deign us with your genius, because:

Quote

I won't be responding to counterarguments*, because there aren't any rational ones. I would like to think that cooler heads will prevail here.

(*Unless you consider "ignore user" a sort of response. )

This will probably get deleted, but I don't give a shit: You are easily the most pompous and arrogant ass on this board, and given some of the people who continue to mash keyboards here, that's saying a whole fuckload.

[LondonSox]

I wouldn't mind having Lopez in the pen if there weren't any other options. There are just oo many good arms in AAA right now to keep rolling Lopez and Penny out there like this.

I'd rather Bowden, Masterson and Buchholz all start than Penny right now and it's not close.
I think Bowden is ready and needs a shot, I'd rather have Masterson as a weapon the pen and Bowden start so both Penny and Lopez can just stop, especially as that STILL leaves Buchholz and Smoltz for depth and Masterson can STILL be moved to start if Bard is seen as ready etc.

How long a rope is Penny given? He's 2-0 despite multiple horrible starts, anything like a decent start today is a win and the strength of the bullpen is seriously hurt by long games vs the Yanks and shit short starts from 5th starters, esp when the best longer reliever is being forced to start.

Penny's money is already nearly a sunk cost, eat some of it and move him to one of the horrendously in need of ptiching teams who'll take a risk that he bounces back for a short contract with low cost, and pick up something for him prospect wise (even if it's a long shot)

[Eric Van]

TheGoldenGreek33, on Apr 29 2009, 02:14 AM, said:

Lugo's error cost the team four runs compared to Lowell's error that cost two runs. The fact or the matter is, had both plays been completed, the team would not have given up a run and it's a 8-2 game going into the 9th. The Sox should be riding a 12 game win streak, and Lugo's defensive miscue is the most damaging play of the game. It's not even close.

I said I wouldn't offer a counterargument, but I realized I wanted to clarify the Lugo vs. Lowell errors and it so happens that you raised exactly the point I wanted to make.

Mike Lowell made an error that costs you 2 and a half runs. That's what you can expect when you make that error, on average (make it 10 times, it'll cost you 25 runs). That Brad Penny stepped it up thereafter and limited the damage to two runs had nothing to do with Mike Lowell's error.

Julio Lugo made an error that costs you "just" 2 runs. That's the average damage of an error like that.* That Brad Penny crapped the bed and gave up four runs total and hence two runs we can blame entirely on him had nothing to do with Lugo's error.

To say that Lugo was responsible for all four runs after the error (because the inning would have been over) would mean that Brad Penny has no responsibility at all afterwards; that it doesn't matter whether he strikes the next two guys out or gives up four straight homers. Which is obviously absurd. Errors are part of the game. Once an error is made, it is up to the pitcher to limit the damage. If he not only fails to do so but makes things worse, we want and need to apportion the blame between the fielder for his error and the pitcher for his subsequent crapitude. And the above is the way you do that.

The bottom line is that we made three errors in this game that cost 5.6 runs and .865 of Win Probability. It's really hard to win a game when you do that.


* The Lugo error was less damaging because first outs are much more important than third outs, so failing to get outs one and two like Lowell did does more damage than failing to get outs two and three; and on Lowell's error, the lead runner went to third, while on Lugo's, he stayed at second. And each of those differences costs you a quarter of a run on average. The actual costs are something like 2.46 vs. 1.97.

[geoduck no quahog]

Brad Penny pitches 2.2 innings, giving up 7 hits (1 homerun), 3 walks and a grand total of 1 strikeout. And you want to pin this loss on Lopez or Lugo? I gotta tell you - watching Penny pitch was excruciating. I wanted to fast forward between every pitch. It's no surprise to me that 2 critical errors were made (1 by a guy playing his first real game of the season) behind the putz. It was freezing out there and everyone was back on their heels.

If you think about it, Lopez pitched pretty well. He would have been out of it had he not had the brain fart. I also think it's ridiculous to even consider bringing Papelbon in to a tie game (regardless of whether it's 42 degrees) 20 games into the season. If Lopez catches that ball, Jensen is pitching the 10th with Pedroia/Ortiz/Youkilis and odds are Papelbon pitches with a lead in the bottom of the 10th (otherwise Lopez freezes his ass out there).

You can't play every game like it's the 7th game of the playoffs, and most everyone here already knows that. Be happy they had an 11-game streak, no one got hurt, hope Papelbon pulls his head out of his ass, thank the lord for Ramirez, and pray Smoltz comes soon (or that Penny just can't throw a curveball in cold weather).

Win the series.

{edit: And one more thing (since it's 2 AM here and I'm baked)....shouldn't Pedroia have caught that throw from Lowell? And another thing...as much as I currently hate Penny, it's still too early in the season to give up on him or anyone else. How would it feel if Penny and Lopez ended up on a Yankee team that desperately needs backup pitching? That's how I view everything these days - if I'm not convinced someone's bad enough to not help the Yankees, I want to wait and see. It's 20 games into the season.

Hopefully when I wake up tomorrow I'm not still an asshat...but I just can't feel any bitterness after that Celtic victory}

This post has been edited by geoduck no quahog: 29 April 2009 - 04:29 AM

[TheoShmeo]

Eric Van, on Apr 29 2009, 02:00 AM, said:

I understand that people react emotionally and the human brain is wired to blame Lugo much more than Lowell, because when events happen in succession the brain assumes causality. Bat Julio Lugo did not cause Brad Penny to give up a 3-run bomb to the #9 hitter after his error, and Mike Lowell did not cause Penny to fan Grady Sizemore after his error and give up no further hits in the inning. That created a huge disparity in the apparent impact of the two errors, but the Lowell error in that situation is plainly more damaging, given equal subsequent performance by the pitcher. And one guy killed us at the plate, and the other guy came up huge.

I won't be responding to counterarguments*, because there aren't any rational ones. I would like to think that cooler heads will prevail here.

Are we sure that EV isn't Dan Duquette?

You're right, people act emotionally. And since Brad Penny is a person, it stands to reason that when Lugo botched an incredibly easy play in his typical fashion, after Mike Lowell had made an error earlier in the game, it caused Penny to let down or get frustrated and that, in turn, contributed to Penny making a bad pitch on the home run ball. In 2004, Derek Lowe was known to do similar things after errors.

[The Boomer]

Chill. They won 11 in a row and were bound to lose an ugly game eventually. Unless they don't bounce back again or spiral into a losing streak, we have nothing to complain about.

[Drek717]

Bongorific, on Apr 29 2009, 12:38 AM, said:

I'll do you one better.

Julio Lugo is my least favorite Red Sox player of all time. I'd rather have Carl Everett.

I'd rather have Alex Cora.

Seriously.