178 replies to this topic

[SouthPaw21]

Bowden was listed as prospect #7 on this weeks Prospect Hot Sheet, presented by Baseball America...

Team: Double-A Portland (Eastern)
Age: 21
Why he's here: 1-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 Ks
The Scoop: After cruising through a difficult environment for pitcher's at high Class A Lancaster last year, Bowden hit a bit of a wall upon his promotion to Double-A. That initial struggle was understandable, of course, given that Bowden was a 20-year-old facing more experienced Double-A competition. This year, the results have been mixed for Bowden. He has more strikeouts (29) than innings pitched (24 1/3), but he's also allowed 12 runs (10 earned) and walked 11.

[Crazy Puppy]

An interview with Bowden at SoxProspects.com:

I've made a few tweaks with my delivery to where it's more compact, and I feel a lot more comfortable. I've shortened my leg kick to where I'm staying on the same plane -- I'm on the same line with it. I'm not flaring it out like I did last year. Last season is when I started working with it, but it's this past off-season where I really worked on it. I did a lot in the Pilates studio, with the big mirrors.

I'm throwing more off-speed pitches, which is what the organization wanted. I've been doing that lately, and it's actually been helping me out a lot. I've also been changing speeds on my breaking pitches.

I haven't thrown my slider since high school, so I think some of the scouting reports are a little off. I just throw two- and four-seam fastballs, a curveball, and a changeup.

[Sea Dog]

Bowden was listed as prospect #7 on this weeks Prospect Hot Sheet, presented by Baseball America...

This week he made the "In the Team Photo" honorable mention ...

"Double-A Portland RHP Michael Bowden (Red Sox) made two starts in the last seven days and allowed only one run, posting a 9-1 K-BB ratio in 12 innings."

[sittingstill]

Following Bowden's excellent start April 26, he's had three more quality outings.

May 2 against Trenton he went 6 innings, allowing one run on 4 hits, 6 SO and no walks. (Sea Dogs lost 1-0.)

May 7 against NH he went 6.2 shutout innings, 1 hit, 1 walk, 3 SO.

Press Herald story

Michael Bowden's feeling comfortable after correcting a flaw in his delivery.

For the first three weeks of the Eastern League baseball season, the guy with the big 44 on his back and red stockings pulled up to below his knee went by the name Michael Bowden.

Thing is, he didn't pitch like the 21-year-old righthander who is one of the top prospects in the Red Sox farm system.

That fellow on the mound Wednesday night at Hadlock Field?

"That's who Michael Bowden is right there," said batterymate Mark Wagner. "You saw what Michael Bowden is all about."

Bowden led the Sea Dogs to a 10-0 victory over the New Hampshire Fisher Cats before a paid crowd of 3,610 on a balmy night.

He did it by throwing 70 of his 98 pitches for strikes, by holding New Hampshire to one hit and one walk, by never allowing a runner to third and by splintering half a dozen Fisher Cat bats before departing with a 3-0 lead and two outs in the seventh.

...

When Bowden (2-2) faced these same Fisher Cats a little more than two weeks ago at Hadlock, he failed for the fourth consecutive start to complete five innings and wound up with a 9-3 loss.

The next day he watched videotape with pitching coach Mike Cather and noticed something amiss with his delivery.

"I was tilting my shoulders a little," he said, "and not getting on top of my fastball."

In the mirrored weight room above the Sea Dogs' new clubhouse in right field, they worked on Bowden's delivery to correct the slight imperfection. In a side session the next morning, Bowden worked out the kink and couldn't wait for his next start.

"Credit him," Cather said. "He was the one who noticed it. He's the one who feels it. Body awareness is such an intangible, and he's got a great feel for what he's doing."

May 13 he held Trenton to 1 run on 4 hits over 5 IP, notching 3 SO with no walks.

Press Herald story

Bowden picked up where he had left off in his last start against the Thunder on May 2, when he went six innings and gave up only one run.

Add that to his 6 2/3 innings of shut-out ball against New Hampshire on May 7, and the 21-year-old entered Tuesday's start having given up no runs in his last 11 innings.

Bowden pitched 41/3 more scoreless innings before back-to-back doubles in the fifth by Trenton. A bunt single gave the Thunder runners on second and third, but a charging catch by Corsaletti ended the inning with Sea Dogs still on top 3-1.

Bowden left after the fifth, having given up four hits and no walks with the one run.

YTD numbers:

GS: 8
IP: 42
H: 30
R: 14
ER: 12
HR: 2
BB: 12
SO: 42
K/BB: 3.5
G/F: 1.03
WHIP: 1.00

[RedSoxinIsrael]

So far for Bowden, after 10 starts:

54.2 IP, 36 H, 15 ER, 53/14 K/BB and 2 HRs. He has a 2.47 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a .183 BAA. 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, 0.78 GO/AO.

Past month: (April 26 - May 26):

36.1 IP, 18 H, 5 ER, 35/3 K/BB and 0 HR. Good for a 1.23 ERA and 0.57 WHIP as a 21 year old in AA. Pretty damn good.

[LondonSox]

One of the most interesting things about Bowden is ability for these stretches of absolute dominance, 1.37 ERA in 46 IP at Lancaster with a 46:8 K to BB (which ranks as one of the best starter performances there ever). Now this period at 21 in AA, the overall numbers are good but this month is really amazing, the Ks don't really pick up in the dominant periods but the walks vanish.

He's good to get some recognition for some superb numbers at a great age in a decent league after his average (by far from terrible) performance in AA last year.

For me the walks remain the key, he's good enough to get Ks (but not at earth shattering numbers in terms of K/9) but if he can keep the control he's hinting at with these periods of dominacne at such a young age, well frankly a nice problem to have how all the arms get innings at the big club.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

I was at the game yesterday with a bunch of other SoSHers, I was able to get a couple of pictures of Bowden on the mound:

[mt8thsw9th]

Bowden is #8 in this week's Prospect Hot Sheet.

http://www.baseballa...008/266213.html

[NYCSox]

Bowden is #13 on the Prospect Hot Sheet for the first third of the season. Check out some of the company on the list - he's in there with some of the top prospects in the game.

http://www.baseballa...008/266253.html

[Green Monster]

http://pressherald.m...all/029140.html

Could another pitcher may be on the verge of a promotion?

Michael Bowden (5-3, 2.24) starts for the Sea Dogs tonight. Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, who took in Wednesday night's game at Hadlock Field, is expected to be back to watch one of his prized pitching prospects.

Michael Bowden has been dominating Double-A batters recently. In his last 10 games, he's 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA.

[Crazy Puppy]

The Sox are also very close to promoting another top pitching prospect, righthander Michael Bowden, from Double A Portland to Pawtucket, with an eye to a possible promotion to the big leagues in August, following the same career path as Jonathan Papelbon in 2005.

Globe

[pedroia'sboys]

Jim (Portland, OR): KLaw, what is your opinion on Bowden now that you've seen him?

Keith Law: (1:13 PM ET ) Disappointed. He was 88-91, below average command, flashed a plus curveball that has a chance to be an out pitch. Barely used his change, which Red Sox people have told me is his best pitch. Ugly delivery. Never saw the 94 mph I'd heard he was dealing this year, and the pro scout behind me told me he'd seen Bowden twice before (in 2008) and never had him above 88-92.


http://proxy.espn.go...?event_id=21323

Thats a bit dissapointing.

[Jack Sox]

I've seen Bowden hit 94 multiple times this year. And the Hadlock gun is slow too.

[Foulkey Reese]

I've seen Bowden hit 94 multiple times this year. And the Hadlock gun is slow too.

Same

I saw him pitch in New Britain this year and he was sitting above 90 and hitting 93-94 on the stadium gun.

Edited by Foulkey Reese, 03 July 2008 - 02:55 PM.

[SouthPaw21]

Bowden was one of the starting pitchers selected to the Prospect Hot Sheet, Midseason All-Star Team...

Team: Double-A Portland (Eastern)
Age: 21
Bowden has been one of the Eastern League's most dominant pitchers, holding opponents to a .192 average and striking out almost a batter an inning. The young righthander has continued to display an outstanding feel for pitching, as he's continued to keep the walks low while not giving hitters pitches to drive. Bowden has held opponents to three runs or fewer in 16 of his 17 starts and is third in the EL in ERA and second in strikeouts.

[njingles3]

Same

I saw him pitch in New Britain this year and he was sitting above 90 and hitting 93-94 on the stadium gun.

Keith Law has this annoying habit of catching Sox top pitching prospects when they have an off-day. He gave an equally uninspiring review of Buchholz last year.

edit: here it is from the Clay thread

Keith Law chat (subscription required)

Andrew (Boston): I think Buchholz and average fastball is a little bit of underexaggeration, maybe compared to his other pitchers, but BA had him hitting 97 late in the games in the Eastern League playoffs last year.

Keith Law: He was 88-92 the last time my scout up here saw him. Be very wary of second-hand velocity reports. Teams and scouts like to exaggerate them, for a variety of reasons.

Edited by njingles3, 06 July 2008 - 02:58 PM.

[redinchicago]

I, like many other, get sucked into velocity. At times. If he is missing bats, that's more important than velocity, IMO. I also look at his BABIP and see .240. But look at how he is getting these outs, 16% of them are infield fly outs. That tells me the hitters are either overmatched or bad hitters. Probably a combo. But that's encouraging. More than whether or not he is at 94 or 89 to 91.

[Ymmot]

Bowden was ranked at #13 on this weeks Prospect Hot Sheet , over at Baseball America

Team: Double-A Portland (Eastern)
Age: 21
Why He's Here: 2-0, 0.90, 10 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 12 SO
The Scoop: The Red Sox are keeping a close watch on Bowden's pitch counts, which explains why he had a pair of five-inning outings, but you can't argue with his production this week. His plus command allowed him to thrive in Lancaster last year, which is a tough environment for pitchers, but his numbers weren't as good after a promotion to Portland. This year, they've been exceptional. Bowden mixes a low-90s fastball with a big-breaking curveball and a changeup, and he's a pretty good bet to reach Triple-A by the end of the season.

Edited by Ymmot, 11 July 2008 - 09:40 PM.

[SoxScout]

Bowden has been placed on the DL retroactive to the 10th with a sore calf. Seemingly just a paper move as he can pitch right after the AA ASB.

Edited by SoxScout, 12 July 2008 - 05:03 PM.

[LondonSox]

Bowden shows up at 17 on the top 25 half year prospects at BA

BA Link

[bosox4283]

What's the plan with Bowden? Is he going to pitch in AAA the second half of this year and then be a AAAA/6th starter guy next year?

[RetractableRoof]

Projo Link: Despite the no-decision, rookie pitcher Michael Bowden worked six innings and allowed only two runs (one earned) on six hits with one walk and six strikeouts. The 21-year-old right-hander is 0-2 in five outings for the PawSox. “He did a really nice job,” said Pawtucket manager Ron Johnson. “I get excited every time he goes out to the mound. He’s fun to watch and his intensity and maturity for a 21-year-old kid — at this level — is very impressive. I was hoping to get him a couple of runs to get him the ‘W’ because he’s pitched well enough to have one.” … Pawtucket committed three errors, allowing three unearned runs as the Knights took advantage of the miscues en route to victory. PawSox Catcher Dusty Brown made two throwing errors attempting to pick a pair of runners off third and Jeff Bailey — playing left field for the first time in almost two months — made a throwing error. “I’m not going to browbeat aggressiveness,” said Johnson. “I’m going to encourage it and tell [Brown] to do it again. You don’t make big plays unless you have the intestinal fortitude to go for. And, he does, and it’s good to see.” Offensively, George Kottaras, Keith Ginter and Brown drove in the three runs for Pawtucket.

---

I watched this game at McCoy, he was fun to watch. It seemed like he was slightly off on his control though, was throwing too many pitches. The one home run off him was absolutely crushed. Dusty Brown didn't do him any favors with his throwing though.

FWIW: Vaughn and Jones weren't fooling anyone in relief... they were getting hit hard, including the outs they recorded.

[mt8thsw9th]

BA rates Bowden's changeup as the best in the Eastern League this season.

[theflinger]

Haven't had a Bowden summary in a bit, and he just hit 40 innings in AAA. So, here goes:

Age: 21
IP: 40
WHIP: 1.13
K/BB: 29/5 or 5.8:1
HR: 5
GO/AO: .93
DERA: 3.93
NERA: 3.51
PERA: 3.56
ERA: 3.38
(BB-Ref, minor league baseball, baseball prospectus)


If the adjusted stats are to be believed, he's pitched in front of a good defense (3.93 vs 3.38), but his peripheral era is good (3.56). His K/9 (6.5) is a little low for the minors, but his BB/9(1.1) is insane, leading to the great K/BB. I am still a little nervous about the Ian Kennedy syndrome (I have posted about this before), but he's still looking very good. For reference, Clay's BB/9 in AAA this year is 3.5.

If that report about the changeup is to be believed, we may have something here. I haven't heard much about his change (his curve was mentioned as good). If he can throw 3 good pitches with the command he's shown (with those amazing K/BB ratios in the EL and IL this year), we're in good shape. Considering he's just 21, I'm happy.

Edited by theflinger, 24 August 2008 - 02:18 PM.

[hollywoo]

Orsillo just said during the sox v. sox game that Bowden will be making a spot start tomorrow night against the White Sox. Pretty exciting to see the kid get a chance.

Edit: appears I was a bit late as it is already on the main board.

Edited by hollywoo, 29 August 2008 - 08:43 PM.

[Ryo Sen]

Extra Bases has the Sox shutting Bowden down for the year NOT due to any health reasons:

We'll start with Bowden, whose winning performance Aug. 30 against the White Sox in his major league debut offered oodles of promise. He will not be brought up from Triple A Pawtucket so he can begin his winter program. Theo Epstein and the Sox player development team made the decision, a process they involved Francona in.

"His pitching is going to be done for the year," Francona said. "He's had a pretty good year. It's time to congratulate him, let him go about his winter, continue to get stronger, develop, things like that. He had a heckuva year."

[bombdiggz]

Good Stuff from Extra Bases.

Michael Bowden was one of the stars at the Athletes Performance Insitute this offseason. Overall, he's gained about 10 pounds of muscle and he says while it's too early to see the gains on the mound, he said, "My throwing sessions so far have been great. I feel a lot stronger." Bowden also hinted the Sox might be working on a new pitch with him. He said nothing has been said yet, but he expects to be working on something new, maybe a different changeup.

Extra Bases

[champain2002]

Ian Browne

Waiting in the wings

from Redsox.com

[Shore Thing]

Watched Bowden today and out of the 3 youngsters (Bard, Tazawa, Bowden) I was really interested in watching, Bowden was by far the least impressive. Don't know if he was working on particular pitches, but he seemed to go deep into counts and didn't fool anybody. I think he had one swing-and-miss during his inning of work.

[phrenile]

Bowden versus Marlins (MLB.com):

During his first two seasons in the Minor Leagues, Michael Bowden said he was referred to as "The Rain Man" because he always seemed to pitch during rain delays.

And there Bowden was Saturday, making the start after a two-hour, 39-minute rain delay.

"I'll tell you what, rain days like this is one of the most mental draining things starting pitchers can go through," Bowden said. "I had to prepare three different times today.

"I prepared like I normally would, I just had to do it three times. I like to say I was three times more prepared than normal."
...
"I felt a little rushed out there, I couldn't get in a good rhythm, but I was facing a good lineup," said Bowden who sports a 7.59 ERA through 10 2/3 innings in his up-and-down Spring Training. "A lot of my pitches were up in the zone, but I was throwing the majority [for]strikes, so it was encouraging getting guys out, even when I didn't have my best stuff."

Red Sox manager Terry Francona said Bowden didn't have much command over his breaking ball on Saturday, and he got into a lot of deep counts -- which prompted him to throw 60 pitches in his short outing.

But he fought through all of that. And that's what he like's most about his hard-throwing prospect.

"He competes, I'll say that," Francona said. "He never doesn't compete. ... He doesn't give in. [He] got some swings and misses on that fastball, some deception, some angle. [There's] a lot to like."

[leadballoon]

How much does the presence of Buchholz affect our impression of this guy? It strikes me that without Buchholz on the roster, Bowden would get a lot more love. As top pitching prospects go, I think Bowden is severely underrated around here. He comes to the table with three good pitches and solid command, and in his debut he sat 92-94 on the gun so he isn't Andy Sonnanstine. And did I mention he's 22 years old going into his first full year in AAA?

Personally I think he has the same upside as Jair Jurrjens, who actually makes a fair comp for Bowden IMHO as they seem to be similar pitchers in a number of ways. Jurrjens is a very creditable young SP and I think Bowden could do what he's done in a good year.

Edited by leadballoon, 01 April 2009 - 09:53 AM.

[champain2002]

Friday, April 10th - Pawsox 9, Bison 0


PROSPECT WATCH: Michael Bowden

Bowden gave up just two hits and two walks and struck out five in his 4 2/3 innings of work; 48 of his 80 pitches were strikes. Bowden was lifted because the Sox didn’t want him to go too far past his scheduled 75-pitch count.


Projo

[phrenile]

Bowden's hometown paper has a puff piece about him (Naperville Sun):

By now, none of us should be surprised by this. Despite a sparkling record and a quick advancement up the organization, Bowden has never rested on success. He wants to learn, to get better. Always.

He could have easily resisted help, pointed to his record and major league debut as proof he was good as is.

But no. Instead, he tweaked his motion to maximize the power in his legs and core while relieving the stress on his arm. And whether it was bullpen sessions or work in front of a mirror, he made it his own so by the time he took the mound for Pawtucket, he had it perfected.

[alskor]

Bowden's hometown paper has a puff piece about him (Naperville Sun):

Too bad that isn't Dustin Pedroia's hometown, too.

[HarvardSox]

Bowden pitched very well today, earning the win with 0 runs, 1 walk, and 7 strikeouts in 5.1 innings. His ERA is now 0.64.

[Adirondack jack]

Bowden's disposition, as well as a solid repertoire of pitches to which he added a slider this season, has made him one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues. His 1.01 ERA leads the International League. In 26 2/3 innings, he has allowed 23 base runners and struck out 19.Before reporting to the minor league complex, Bowden met with Red Sox officials about what he was missing. His two-seam fastball and changeup both ran in toward righthanded batters, and his curveball broke straight down, "12 to 6," Bowden said. He needed a pitch that would break away from righthanders - like a slider.

"It was a totally new pitch for me," Bowden said.

He threw it for the first time not in the bullpen, but during a minor league spring game. Since then, he's tried three grips for the slider, and he experimented with a fourth this week while playing catch with Clay Buchholz.

link

Edited by Adirondack jack, 09 May 2009 - 05:21 AM.

[FanSinceBoggs]

Bowden's Triple A ratios thus far this season are a little troubling.

Statistics Link: http://web.minorleag...t...&pid=476601

Bowden is averaging 3.25 walks per nine and 5.73 strikeouts per nine. To be sure, not dominant numbers at the Triple A level. By comparison, Buchholz is averaging 1.74 walks per nine and 8.27 strikeouts per nine--dominant ratios.

Bowden's ratios might suggest that he does not profile as a top-of-the-rotation starter. He is not missing enough bats or demonstrating ace-like control (the walk ratio).

But Bowden's Triple A ratios in 2008 were more impressive: 1.13 walks per nine and 6.53 strikeouts per nine.

Obviously, the sample size, in both years, is somewhat small, but this is something worth paying attention to. If Bowden doesn't improve his Triple A ratios, then he would profile as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. In that scenario, the Red Sox should consider trading him especially if another team gives him a higher grade.

One caveat: it is possible that Bowden's mediocre Triple A ratios are due to developmental factors. Bowden may be working on his secondary pitches without a concern for his statistical output.

[SoxScout]

http://www.boston.co...tid=26287887001

Video of an interview with Bowden and Giardi.. lots of talk about his control and such. He is a well spoken kid, even though you don't hear from him often.

[FanSinceBoggs]

Cuzittt posted this article in another thread; I thought it was an interesting piece. Bowden has been working on developing his slider, and that might explain why his recent statistical output is far from elite for a Triple-A starting pitcher.

It is sometimes difficult to evaluate pitching prospects based solely on statistics. If that pitching prospect is focused on developing his secondary pitches, then his overall statistics may not be as impressive as they could be or an accurate measurement of the pitcher's true abilities.

Link: http://www.projo.com...n.228689c9.html

Highlights:

Pitcher Michael Bowden is such a highly touted prospect that every hot streak makes many believe that he's ready for the big leagues, while every bump in the road brings just as many fears that he'll never make it. The No. 2-ranked prospect in the Boston system has had plenty of both this year –– a tremendous hot streak to begin the season and a rocky patch of late, giving him a somewhere-in-the-middle 3.38 ERA for the season. Monday night, Bowden gave up four runs in 4 2/3 innings, though he kept his team in the game long enough for them to win in extra innings. But Bowden's recent difficulties may actually mask a fundamental improvement. Bowden has been working to incorporate a slider into his repertoire with the hope of giving the contact-oriented command pitcher a true "out pitch" that will let him rack up the strikeouts.

Coming into Monday night, Bowden had allowed two runs or less in three of his last four outings, with Durham the exception. In that game, Bowden threw about 10 sliders and plans to incorporate the pitch even more. He had been working on the pitch most of the year, but it has become a useful pitch only in his last two outings. Before that, Bowden couldn't throw it with any break, or for a strike. "It was either straight or it was buried in the ground and they thought it was a changeup. He'd throw one strike with it a game, so it wasn't even a thought," Sauveur said. Now, it will give the fastball-curveball-changeup pitcher another weapon to keep hitters off guard. The slider comes in between 83 and 87 mph, a perfect complement to his 92-mph fastball and his roughly 80-mph curve.

Edited by FanSinceBoggs, 01 July 2009 - 05:50 AM.

[FanSinceBoggs]

Daniel Barbarisi reported the following on Thursday: http://www.projo.com...l.25901571.html

PAWTUCKET -- Michael Bowden will skip his scheduled start Friday night in favor of Enrique Gonzalez, allowing Bowden to get the annual two weeks of midseason rest that the organization forces upon its prized young pitching prospects.

Bowden started off the season in impressive fashion, finishing the first month with an ERA under 1.00. But over his last 10 starts, he has a 4.94 ERA, leaving him with a 3.32 mark for the season. He has been working to incorporate a slider into his repertoire, and the time off should allow him both to rest and to improve his arsenal.

[Eric Van]

Bowden's first 7 starts, his next 9, and his last 2:

Sheet1

Starts	IP	EIP	ERA	TRA	CEE	S/C	BA	OBP	SA	K%	BB%	HRC	XIP	1B%	BABIP	CEX
First 7	42.0	36.6	0.86	0.85	1.22	0.74	.136	.224	.171	.179	.103	.000	.045	.131	.170	2.84
Next 9	39.3	41.4	5.95	6.63	7.32	0.94	.315	.374	.568	.145	.084	.066	.102	.252	.328	6.45
Last 2	12.0	10.0	1.50	1.69	2.34	0.66	.103	.186	.282	.233	.093	.069	.037	.038	.074	5.31

(HRC = HR per contact, XIP = XBH per balls in play, 1B% = 1B / (1B + Outs in play). Three independent measures of hardness of contact.)

[BucketOBalls]

Is this guy being undervalued? I looked him up and he seemed better than I expected.

3.08 ERA in AAA

2.96 this year
1.146 WHIP

Only 22.
#2 Sox prospect according to Baseball America.


What do people think?

[shepard50]

Is this guy being undervalued? I looked him up and he seemed better than I expected.

3.08 ERA in AAA

2.96 this year
1.146 WHIP

Only 22.
#2 Sox prospect according to Baseball America.


What do people think?

I don't know where you are getting the undervalue from. He's right there with Tazawa as a future starter for the Big Team. Not a lot of movement on the fastball and not overpowering but has the weird delivery that could continue to deceive. Great control. I believe he is working on secondary pitches (slider, curve) this year in Pawtucket and that may reflect in his slightly uneven performance this year - see the second row of EV's chart above. Good control and everything I have read has him as a middle of the rotation guy - lacks the pure stuff that would mark him as future number 1 - but I don't think that's undervalued, that's a great path if he can fulfill it!

[ELMER FLICK]

I was curious how much Bowden's approach and his pitches have evolved over the last year or so, so I looked up his one ML start from 2008, August 30 against the Cubs (located here: http://www.brooksbas...mp;prevDate=830 ) and his last start this year, October 4, against the Indians (located here: http://www.brooksbas...mp;prevDate=104 ). It is one game each time, and only a few innings, so any conclusions must be pretty tentative. Here are some basic things:


2008 5 IP 7H 2R
Pitch Statistics (Velocity Histogram)
Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Nibbleness Time to Plate
FA (Fastball) 92.07 94.5 -0.80 11.85 65 47 / 72.31% 4 / 6.15% 6.11 0.417
CH (Changeup) 84.54 86 -6.09 8.25 12 7 / 58.33% 3 / 25.00% 7.95 0.454
SL (Slider) 82.40 84.6 -0.67 4.05 2 0 / 0.00% 0 / 0.00% 12.43 0.468
CU (Curveball) 78.80 79.5 1.15 -1.45 10 8 / 80.00% 0 / 0.00% 6.10 0.487


2009 2.2 IP 3H 1R
Pitch Statistics (Velocity Histogram)
Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Nibbleness Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball) 92.40 93.7 -2.14 13.40 27 17 / 62.96% 2 / 7.41% 6.17 0.413
CH (Changeup) 82.73 83.3 -4.14 12.33 4 2 / 50.00% 0 / 0.00% 5.14 0.460
SL (Slider) 82.82 85.2 3.48 1.90 9 4 / 44.44% 0 / 0.00% 6.22 0.459

Others are better at reading these than I am, but I'll start. His velocity on the fastball was slightly better a year ago, though that is probably because it was earlier in the season. By the end of this year he may have been worn down. More interestingly, he actually had better movement on the fastball in 2009 than in 2008. His control of it was much better in that one 2008 game. In 2008, he threw the fastball 65/89 times, or about 73% of the time. He threw the change and curveball about equally often 13.5% and 11.2% respectively. In 2009, he threw the fastball 27/40 times, or about 67.5% of the time. He threw the new slider nearly 25% of the time, and threw the change 10% of the time. Use of the change remained similar, but the slider, which replaced his old curve, was used about twice as often as the curve. The break on the change is quite different in the two starts. In 2008, the break was much more distinct from the fastball than in the 2009 start. The slider comes in a little harder than the curve did, and has a slightly different break, though not as much as I would have thought. The interesting thing, and perhaps a large part of the problem, is that the change and the slider come in at pretty much the same speed, though they do break differently. So, although he is throwing three pitches, as in 2008, he now only has two speeds. It is probably worth noting that he didn't get a single swinging strike on an off speed pitch in the 2009 game, a pretty big change from the 2008 game where he fooled hitters pretty effectively with his change. It is only one game each time, but I wonder if replacing the curve with a slider was a mistake? Or maybe he just needs more work on it.

Edit: I'm too newsgroup illiterate to work out how to do tables. They line up neatly when I put them in, but don't stay that way. Hopefully people can still work it out, and if not, there is the link.

[Frank, Fenway]

http://phrenile.brav....com/soshtable/

paste your excel sheet into there

[Puffy]

Interesting article on Bowden from earlier this week.

I wonder what Michael Bowden's role is going to be with this team. He came into 2009 hyped as the Red Sox best pitching prospect after Buchholz. His overall performance in Pawtucket was good but inconsistent. He struggled in Boston for 16 IP - mostly one rough mopup appearance against the Yankees. He has always been pegged as a mid- to back-end of the rotation starter. He's now spoken of as borderline bust and one of the major 2009 disappointments (with Almanzar and Anderson).

But - the kid just turned 23-years old. I understand about his walk and strikeout ratios and all the mediocre peripherals. But I wonder if Pawtucket had a decent offense in 2009 and he had put up a 13 - 3 record to go with his 3.13 ERA (with everything else equal), rather than the 4 - 6 record he did put up, and if he hadn't made that one relief appearance during the Yankee blowout, if perceptions would be drastically different.

I wonder if the Red Sox really see him as a potential starter for this team in 2010/2011, or if he'll aways be one down in the depth chart. He's getting leapfrogged already by guys like Tazawa and pretty soon he'll have Doubront, Pimentel, Fife, Weiland, Wilson and those guys knocking on the door. And if he's always 6 or 7 on the SP depth chart, does he have any value as a bullpen long man.

In a way, the writing seems to be on the wall. In Boston, the back end of the rotation seems reserved for veterans like Wakefield, Penny, Byrd, Smolz (maybe Harden or whomever this year). It seems like the only way to crack the rotation is as a potential ace (like Lester and Buchholz). I think Masterson went through this too. He had potential as a starter, but there wasn't going to be room in Boston for many starting innings to go to him. Maybe Bowden is the same way - the only way for him to achieve his full potential is with another team. Unfortunately his reputation is at a nadir, so he probably won't return as much as a trading chip as he's worth. He was 22-years old last year - I wonder if the success of Bard and the resurgence of Buchholz mean the bar is set a little too high at this point in his career.

[Montana Fan]

Puffy, nice post. If my memory serves me correctly Bowden struggled a bit at both AA & AAA before settling down and figuring out how to get hitters out. That isn't to say he'll figure it out in the bigs to start 2010 but I'd like to see him as the ace or co-ace with Tazawa of the AAA staff and the first or second call up when someone gets injured.

Some have compared him to Suppan and others to Brian Rose, I tend to think Suppan. He's had many dominating pitching performances in the minors. Give him another 1/2 year to year at AAA and I think he'll add some nice cost value to the Sox in a #4 or #5 role with the occasional very good start.

I know some are down on our upper level ml pitching but AAA pitchers, Tazawa, Bowden, Richardson and Lentz should all have an opportunity to add some value to the ML team next year.

Edited by Montana Fan, 22 November 2009 - 12:17 PM.

[Puffy]

Puffy, nice post. If my memory serves me correctly Bowden struggled a bit at both AA & AAA before settling down and figuring out how to get hitters out. That isn't to say he'll figure it out in the bigs to start 2010 but I'd like to see him as the ace or co-ace with Tazawa of the AAA staff and the first or second call up when someone gets injured.

Some have compared him to Suppan and others to Brian Rose, I tend to think Suppan. He's had many dominating pitching performances in the minors. Give him another 1/2 year to year at AAA and I think he'll add some nice cost value to the Sox in a #4 or #5 role with the occasional very good start.

I know some are down on our upper level ml pitching but AAA pitchers, Tazawa, Bowden, Richardson and Lentz should all have an opportunity to add some value to the ML team next year.

Thanks Montana. You reminded me of the other thing that bugs me a little.

I know these aren't scientific measures, but this Suppan comp is so ubiquitous, I wonder if it is ever really examined. Is there any other comp out there that might be more illustrative than Suppan? Sure, Suppan has put together a solid major league career, but he did it with strikeout ratios around 5.0/9, walk rates around 3.0/9, and WHIP between 1.4 and 1.5. Bowden's track record in the minors so far indicates potential for superior walk and strikeout rates and WHIP (even in last year's down performance).

I know it's a question of how minor league numbers translate to the majors, but the other thing about Bowden that is sometimes overlooked is that he has always been advanced for his age. Isn't Bowden's upside a bit higher than Suppan?

Or is Suppan a just a shorthand way of saying "his upside is solid mid-rotation starter for a 10 or 15 year career" and I'm just getting hung up on this whole "comp" thing?

I guess it's silly to get hung up over as imprecise an measure as "major league comp." I don't know if it would change things if it Aaron Sele, Esteban Loiaiza, or Steve Trachsel. Still, I can hardly think of a recent prospect who has been so tied to a single major league comp as Bowden/Suppan. Ellsbury/Damon maybe?

[Puffy]

Interesting read about Michael Bowden by Troy Patterson:

Reviving Michael Bowden's Prospect Status

A couple key passages...

Bowden has lost a bit of his “prospect” status, but he was ranked very high on lists just last year. He continues this year at Minor League Ball being ranked fifth on the Red Sox with a B Grade. He has a comparison of Jeff Suppan, but that is still very valuable. I think his ceiling is higher and PECOTA has his top comp as Kevin Slowey.

The difference between these two comps is about 0.5 in their ERA. Going from a 4.75 ERA to a 4.25 is a fairly good expectation for a career from Bowden. His low ground ball rate is pretty sure to make him stay around this zone.

Bowden has fallen in value this year based on what fans saw in only 16 innings resulting in a 9.56 ERA. There are reasons to be concerned, but his ERA in a 8 game cup of coffee as a reliever is not an accurate portrait.

Wakefield’s Projection from Bill James is very optimistic with 6 wins and an ERA of 4.03, but only 93 IP. His FIP is 4.65, but he would be expected to have an ERA lower than that due to the ability of Knuckleballs to effect BABIP. CHONE is much less optimistic with an ERA of 5.04 and giving 16 runs above replacement or 1.6 WAR in 26 Games.

The projections for Bowden are a bit more consistent with Bill James giving him a 4.71 ERA and 4.44 FIP in 130 IP. CHONE gives him a 4.92 ERA and the exact same number of runs above replacement at 16, which gives him the same value as Wakefield.

[Billy R Ford]

Bowden to the bullpen?

"He's 23 and was drafted out of high school,'' said general manager Theo Epstein. "It's ridiculous when people say he has peaked.I think he could factor into our bullpen mix at some point this year. But there are only so many pitchers in the organization you can point to and say they have the attributes of someone who can throw 200 innings in the big leagues.''

"I'm just going to let it happen, whatever that is,'' [Bowden] said. "I'm definitely not opposed to going to the bullpen. I didn't think I would enjoy it last year but I did."

I think most people would agree that it's not a great idea for the whole season because Bowden has more long-term value as a starter, even a back-end-of-the-rotation one. That being said, if the Sox need bullpen help at the end of July and Bowden is pitching well again for Pawtucket, I like the idea of converting him to a reliever rather than giving someone up in a trade, a la Justin Masterson in 2007.