1391 replies to this topic

[pokey_reese]

Heyman on WFAN:

-- Penny for Donald is not real and never was.

-- Red Sox have a lot of different options right now. Holliday (for 2 very good prospects), Huff, Willingham, Dunn, Johnson all on the list they are going after. People in baseball are saying Theo is very aggressive and is not going to wait for the deadline as he is trying to beat the Braves/Giants/Mets to the punch for the best hitter.

-- Red Sox could get Hanley back and have the prospects to get it done between Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson and Lowrie. Marlins afraid of looking bad however. Hanley, Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez are the guys they are making sure they absolutely can not get before settling for one of the others (thinks it will be Johnson).

-- Going to be an extremely active trade period between now and the deadline.

I want this to be a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, I really do. Hanley would be great, but I can't help thinking of it as the longest of long shots. The Padres just seem like the most desperate to deal in terms of finances, and they are probably the least likely of the three teams (including the Marlins and Indians) to be competitive during his contract.

Good to hear that Theo is being proactive on this, let's just hope that Ortiz doesn't find out, unless Theo is also going to get a team to eat Lowell's contract (obviously not an issue if they were to get Hanley, but I just can't see it.)

[SoxScout]

The Royals are kicking around the idea of adding a shortstop, but what are their options? The Astros' Miguel Tejada is no longer adequate defensively. The A's Orlando Cabrera and Bobby Crosby have been terrible offensively. The Mariners' Yuniesky Betancourt is hardly an upgrade. Best fit: The Pirates' Jack Wilson, but only if the Red Sox don't grab Wilson first.

Rosenthal

[Jed Zeppelin]

Rosenthal

Is anyone else sick of these Jack Wilson rumors that have been going on since last season? Unless they're giving up Lugo+ some middling prospect I just don't see it.

[SoxScout]

Is anyone else sick of these Jack Wilson rumors that have been going on since last season? Unless they're giving up Lugo+ some middling prospect I just don't see it.

Only if Jed's wrist does not allow him to play this year and Theo says screw it and goes for the best defensive SS in baseball (UZR-wise).

	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	FP	RF/G	RF/9	DG	exO	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Jack Wilson	278.2	37	94	5	21	.963	4.1	4.2	28.0	64.0	0.8	6.0	-1.2	5.6	26.8
Nick Green	226.1	40	63	8	11	.928	3.7	4.1	27.0	61.0	0.4	-0.7	-1.9	-2.2	-13.5
Julio Lugo	170.1	27	37	4	4	.941	3.0	3.4	18.0	42.0	-0.4	-3.6	-1.1	-5.0	-39.7

That range would be nice playing next to Lowell. Wilson's buyout next year is 600K.

Edited by SoxScout, 02 June 2009 - 09:44 PM.

[Rough Carrigan]

Somebody has talked to Tek.

He was bobbing and weaving behind the plate, especially in the 9th inning, not giving the signal and immediately setting up camp on, say, the outside corner and giving the other team every chance to signal to the batter where he is (or for the batter, himself, to notice).

[pokey_reese]

As a result of the McLouth to the Braves trade,

The Pirates made room for their new players by removing reliever Craig Hansen from the 40-man roster.

...and he's done.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

As a result of the McLouth to the Braves trade,


...and he's done.

They transferred him to the 60 day DL because of a nerve issue in his neck. They didn't DFA him.

He's still a lousy pitcher, though.

[Hairps]

All due respect to our favorite Yankee fan and Yankee Forum Moderator's sig line, of course:

Yankee Record With Alex Rodriguez In The Lineup: 18-7

Red Sox Record With Nick Green In The Starting Lineup: 22-8

[Rudy Pemberton]

For all of the talk about how good Wakefield is, he now has a 4.85 ERA. It seems like every year he goes on a run early and gets everyone excited, but at the end of the day, he is what he is and we kinda know where he will end up. And there's really ntohing wrong with that.

(and he follows it up with 5 more scoreless innnings, to lower his ERA back to 4.5. Gotta love Wake)

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 04 June 2009 - 02:07 PM.

[dcmissle]

Very well positioned on an apparent path to 96 wins with a third of the season in the books. Extremely fortunate too, with the rotation so-so until quite recently, a damaging injury at SS, and little Papi.

Obviously, this could break in any number of directions. But I have an overall sense that a truly significant deal this year will prove a necessity, and that if things are allowed to play out until the trade deadline, that may be too late to get them where everybody here wants them.

Edited by dcmissle, 04 June 2009 - 07:59 PM.

[snowmanny]

Very well positioned on an apparent path to 96 wins with a third of the season in the books. Extremely fortunate too, with the rotation so-so until quite recently, a damaging injury at SS, and little Papi.

Obviously, this could break in any number of directions. But I have an overall sense that a truly significant deal this year will prove a necessity, and that if things are allowed to play out until the trade deadline, that may be too late to get them where everybody here wants them.

Of course the DH needs an upgrade, but there should be options available; I'm not sure how "significant" a deal this will require. I guess I'm not seeing the same talent that you're seeing in the Wild Card competition. What two teams from what division do you see potentially blowing the Red Sox out of the water in the next 50 games?

[Butch Hobsons elbo chips]

The "mole" is currently hitting .321 with an .847 OPS including 25 xbh which is better than Matt Holliday or Mike Lowell.

There seems to be enough talk about acquiring a mediocre DH like Holliday or Cust. Or finding a way to relieve gimpy Lowell of having to play as many innings at 3B as the season progresses. And JJ Hardy is the only full time SS being mentioned that can hit his weight. (a player worth pursuing if he is made available)

With Lowrie back in a few weeks, the bar is set to improve on a career journeyman named Nick Green. The "mole" can do that and much more for this team.






"Where have you gone Lew Ford, sosh nation turns it's lonley eyes to you..woo, woo, woo"

[Rudy Pemberton]

There seems to be enough talk about acquiring a mediocre DH like Holliday or Cust.

I'm not the world's biggest Holliday fan, but referring to him as a "mediocre DH" is insane. I also haven't heard any talk about Cust.

With Lowrie back in a few weeks, the bar is set to improve on a career journeyman named Nick Green. The "mole" can do that and much more for this team.

I don't get it. Doesn't Lowrie replace Green? Who exactly is the "mole"?

[Chainsaw318]

I don't get it. Doesn't Lowrie replace Green? Who exactly is the "mole"?

Freddy Sanchez

[dbn]

Very well positioned on an apparent path to 96 wins with a third of the season in the books.

Because I like graphs (the dotted-lines are the pace for 90, 95, and 100 wins):


Why did espn.com get rid of those "race" graphs in the standings pages? I liked them. Well, they aren't difficult to make oneself, so I made one for the AL East (RS in red, straight line is 81 win pace).

[SoxScout]

The Boston Red Sox may be having a good year on the field and at the ticket window, but local ratings for its televised ballgames were off roughly 14 percent through May 21.

The Sox still dominate the local airwaves during game broadcasts, logging the highest local viewer ratings among all Major League Baseball teams, according to a recent analysis by Street & Smith’s Sports Business Journal. The Sports Business Journal is owned by American City Business Journals, the parent of the Boston Business Journal.

Sox games on New England Sports Network (NESN) were broadcasted into an average of 209,000 households during the period analyzed, down 12 percent from the year-earlier span. As a percentage of the local television audience, the Sox’s average rating of 8.67 was down 14 percent on a year-over-year basis. The team’s local market-share average is still the highest among all MLB teams.

MLB has registered relatively flat year-to-date ratings on its FOX and TBS broadcasts and a 15.4 percent decline in ESPN-affiliated broadcasts.

http://www.bizjourna...ml?ana=from_rss

[Rudy Pemberton]

I imagine the Bruins run is a factor in those decreased ratings; quite a few Bruins games were head to head with Sox games. The biggest factor, though, is probably the West Coast one. The Sox have played a lot more games on the West Coast this year than they did last year to date. I would expect those games have lower ratings. In other words, I don't think this data means much and will likely normalize.

[SoxScout]

As down as the Red Sox have gotten on shortstop Julio Lugo(notes), a major defensive liability who also isn’t hitting, one scout said he was mildly surprised that Boston hasn’t made an overture to the Astros about Miguel Tejada(notes), who ranks second in the National League in hitting entering the weekend. The downside to going after Miggy is considerable: He’s 35, he’s making $13 million, and his range has shrunk so much he should be playing third base. Pittsburgh’s Jack Wilson(notes) still looks like the best fit, especially if the Pirates are in selloff mode.

Sweet gesture by Red Sox manager Terry Francona and his bench coach Brad Mills(notes), sending 500 roses to their wives after Francona won his 500th game in the big leagues Tuesday in Detroit. Among Red Sox managers, only Joe Cronin (1,071) and Pinky Higgins (560) have more wins. Neither, of course, can claim ownership of a World Series ring; Francona has two.

Financially, it doesn’t add up, but one scout insists that the Braves inquired about J.D. Drew(notes) of the Red Sox.

edes

[ManilaSoxFAN]

Because I like graphs (the dotted-lines are the pace for 90, 95, and 100 wins):


Why did espn.com get rid of those "race" graphs in the standings pages? I liked them. Well, they aren't difficult to make oneself, so I made one for the AL East (RS in red, straight line is 81 win pace).

I used to use that graph (like yours) for a few years. It helped me see how much we were varying from a desired or expected final result for the season.

The shortfall of your graph is that the various "pace" lines are linear. They assume that every game -- home or away, vs tough or terrible teams -- is the same...which, of course, is not true.

95 wins seems to be the best "target". It's good enough for making the playoffs and it's roughly the team's average during this leadership's era.

[TomRicardo]

I used to use that graph (like yours) for a few years. It helped me see how much we were varying from a desired or expected final result for the season.

The shortfall of your graph is that the various "pace" lines are linear. They assume that every game -- home or away, vs tough or terrible teams -- is the same...which, of course, is not true.

95 wins seems to be the best "target". It's good enough for making the playoffs and it's roughly the team's average during this leadership's era.

THE METRIC IS BACK AND IT IS BACK BIG!

I am not sure why the media is so in love with the idea of Jack Wilson and the Red Sox. He really isn't that good and not worth given any prospects for. I don't see how he is much better than Lowrie.

[jippaman]

I imagine the Bruins run is a factor in those decreased ratings; quite a few Bruins games were head to head with Sox games. The biggest factor, though, is probably the West Coast one. The Sox have played a lot more games on the West Coast this year than they did last year to date. I would expect those games have lower ratings. In other words, I don't think this data means much and will likely normalize.

While I think the above factors - the Bruins playoff push (and the Celtics, for that matter) and the front-loading of West Coast games - has a lot to do with the decreased television viewership, I think there are bigger reasons for the lower ratings (not necessarily in order):

1.) No Jerry Remy - Love or hate him, at least he's knowledgeable and complements Don well. With so many of Jerry's replacements having butchered the analysis and/or our eardrums, I wouldn't be surprised if more people were simply listening to the radio.

2.) Complacency - I fear that we've arrived at a near-MFY state where there's not as much urgency to follow the team as closely as over the past five or six seasons. This statement clearly does not apply to members of SoSH and other hardcore and crazy fans, but it may apply to the "fans of a lessor stature than I" and other casual fan circles that make up a large number of NESN's audience. It's tough to quantify the impact on ratings, but the expectations fans have for a team may play a role in how closely they follow said organization.

3.) The Team is Boring - I might get skewered for this statement (though I think many would agree): the 2009 Red Sox are a boring team to watch, both on and off the field. Other than Dusty, Papelbon with his fist-pump, and the insanity of Beckett's glare, who else stands out? Sure, Youkilis growls and Papi is still around, but the jovial, fun-loving, always-have-something-to-say players are absent from this roster. Theo has assembled a team of Jason Bays who don't say much, don't show much if any flare, and go about there business as if it were simply that: a business. Similar to my point above on complacency, I don't believe the team's character or lack-there-of affects how much the hardcore fan base follows the team on a regular basis. I do, however, think that the casual fans and even the media are not able to truly fall in love with this team - at least not yet. I think that the shift from Pedro and Millar-type personalities to Drew and Lowell-typle personalities may be negatively effecting the ratings.

4.) Other Programming - The Sox have also been competing with the likes of American Idol and other reality television, the other local teams as mentioned above, and everything else that the Internet and cable and satellite t.v. throws at its consumers. To me, this is the biggest reason for the ratings drop with everything else mentioned has only potential contributing factors. I'd like to know if ratings around the country are down and how the numbers across the board compare to the past few seasons.

[OCD SS]

3.) The Team is Boring - I might get skewered for this statement (though I think many would agree): the 2009 Red Sox are a boring team to watch, both on and off the field. Other than Dusty, Papelbon with his fist-pump, and the insanity of Beckett's glare, who else stands out? Sure, Youkilis growls and Papi is still around, but the jovial, fun-loving, always-have-something-to-say players are absent from this roster. Theo has assembled a team of Jason Bays who don't say much, don't show much if any flare, and go about there business as if it were simply that: a business. Similar to my point above on complacency, I don't believe the team's character or lack-there-of affects how much the hardcore fan base follows the team on a regular basis. I do, however, think that the casual fans and even the media are not able to truly fall in love with this team - at least not yet. I think that the shift from Pedro and Millar-type personalities to Drew and Lowell-typle personalities may be negatively effecting the ratings.

This is baseball, not professional wrestling. How many "characters" do you think a team needs?

How many people who would not otherwise watch baseball tuned into NESN just so they could see what crazy thing Manny might do? I'm guessing not a whole lot. People like a team that wins, and they will find a way to like the players that are winning.

[Lynchie]

Random thoughts about Brad Penny: (Through June 5)


Overall, his HWIP is 1.60. He averages 7 hits, not quite 2 Walks and just over 5 IP per start. In his four no decisions he pitched 18 innings, gave up 30 hits, 9 walks and gave up 22 runs (18 earned) for a 9.00 ERA with 2.16 HWIP. The Sox scored 25 runs in those 4 games. In his wins in which he has 5, the team scored 43 runs.

Many bad pitchers would get 5 wins when their team averaged over 8 runs per game in games in which you get the win. Still, people talk about quality starts. Fair enough. A 'quality start' (3 earned runs or less in 6 IP) may hold your team in the game but seriously, I can't believe that giving up a run every other inning will win you many ballgames. I think that while a quality start is a stat that can help you get a decent contract these days, it does not make you a very good pitcher if that is what you have to point to as a high point.

2 ER in 6 IP is more like a quality start as far as I am concerned. Given that criteria he has had only 3 quality starts so far and is lucky to have the wins he has. Those 5 wins against 2 loses make him look better that he has actually pitched. With an ERA of 5.85 and saying he has pitched well this year just does not hold water for me. Those are the reasons Brad Penny does not thrill me. One thing I do like about the guy is that he can bring it. I hope he gets it going if he stays around here.

[paulftodd]

1.) No Jerry Remy - Love or hate him, at least he's knowledgeable and complements Don well. With so many of Jerry's replacements having butchered the analysis and/or our eardrums, I wouldn't be surprised if more people were simply listening to the radio.

I must confess, Roberts homerism irks me terribly and I was tempted to watch the other teams feed on mlb.com, so I suppose some fans in Boston reached for the radio. More importantly though, many of these games were on the west coast, or were were competing with the Bruins or Celts.

As for complacency and the team being boring, there may be some truth to the former being a factor in the early going. I do not think it will hold up during the summer months if the team stays competitive.

As for boring what true fan can not be fascinated in a horrific fashion over David Ortiz struggles. Paps turning into K-Rod has some of us tuning in to to count his pitches and measure his arm slot in horror, as surely this signals an arm problem that will have the team scrambling for a closer down the road. The defense at SS has been horribly entertaining to all except for the pitchers. Jason Bay is having an MVP caliber season. Jacoby is certainly exciting when he is on base. Mike Lowell in DP situations puts fans on the edge of their seats waiting for the DP. Dustin is still Dustin, albeit with fewer HR's, more CS, and more DP's and Youk is better than ever, when healthy. The washed up and underpaid Tek has 9 more HR than Papi and is second on the team in HR. I mean, who can say this lineup, other than Iron Man Drew, is not exciting, at least on the field if not in an interview.

The pitching has a Jekyll and Hyde look. The starting pitching has been woeful, although this is turning around, and the BP has been great, Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones aside, and Bard certainly has fans on the edge of their seats in a good way, while Paps makes his saves entertaining in a not so good way.

[Todd Benzinger]

2 ER in 6 IP is more like a quality start as far as I am concerned. Given that criteria he has had only 3 quality starts so far and is lucky to have the wins he has. Those 5 wins against 2 loses make him look better that he has actually pitched. With an ERA of 5.85 and saying he has pitched well this year just does not hold water for me. Those are the reasons Brad Penny does not thrill me. One thing I do like about the guy is that he can bring it. I hope he gets it going if he stays around here.

Well, for the Sox, who score 5+ R/Game, 3 in Six is a QS, in the sense that it gives the team a strong likelihood of victory. It's a bad stat that it gives you nothing predictively, and says nothing about the underlying quality of pitching, but I think it is actually somewhat useful as a crude measurement of past real-world effectiveness.

2 ER in 6 IP is perhaps too restrictive a criterion to tell you much about how effectively an SP is keeping the team in games.

Lester has 3. (vs 5 trad QS)
Beckett has 5. (vs 7 Traditional QS)
Wake has 5. (vs 7 traditional QS)
Masterson has 2 either way.

The key thing about Penny is that he has 2 disaster starts--in which he couldn't get into the fourth, and left with 7 or 8 runs on the board for the opposition--both early on when he arguably wasn't yet in game shape due to his very light spring training.

Yesterday he looked great until he ran into trouble/ got Lugo'd. Those games he looked terrible, as he also did in the early starts with good results.

Edited by Todd Benzinger, 06 June 2009 - 08:50 AM.

[Max Power]

This is baseball, not professional wrestling. How many "characters" do you think a team needs?

How many people who would not otherwise watch baseball tuned into NESN just so they could see what crazy thing Manny might do? I'm guessing not a whole lot. People like a team that wins, and they will find a way to like the players that are winning.

Except the team is winning and fewer people are watching.

I'm in complete agreement that the team is boring. Having entertaining guys like Millar, Damon, Pedro, and Manny helps draw casual fans and strengthen the bond with the die hards. Of course they have to win, but you don't have to "find a way to like" the happy version of Manny Ramirez like you do the vanilla corners Drew and Bay.

[John DiFool]

Overall, his HWIP is 1.60. He averages 7 hits, not quite 2 Walks and just over 5 IP per start. In his four no decisions he pitched 18 innings, gave up 30 hits, 9 walks and gave up 22 runs (18 earned) for a 9.00 ERA with 2.16 HWIP. The Sox scored 25 runs in those 4 games. In his wins in which he has 5, the team scored 43 runs.

To be fair, he has a 33-8 K-W ratio since Apr 28th. And again, much of what we think of as pitching is in fact defense (c.f. last night). Still would rather have Buchholz.

[jippaman]

As for boring what true fan can not be fascinated in a horrific fashion over David Ortiz struggles. Paps turning into K-Rod has some of us tuning in to to count his pitches and measure his arm slot in horror, as surely this signals an arm problem that will have the team scrambling for a closer down the road. The defense at SS has been horribly entertaining to all except for the pitchers. Jason Bay is having an MVP caliber season. Jacoby is certainly exciting when he is on base. Mike Lowell in DP situations puts fans on the edge of their seats waiting for the DP. Dustin is still Dustin, albeit with fewer HR's, more CS, and more DP's and Youk is better than ever, when healthy. The washed up and underpaid Tek has 9 more HR than Papi and is second on the team in HR. I mean, who can say this lineup, other than Iron Man Drew, is not exciting, at least on the field if not in an interview.

The pitching has a Jekyll and Hyde look. The starting pitching has been woeful, although this is turning around, and the BP has been great, Javier Lopez and Hunter Jones aside, and Bard certainly has fans on the edge of their seats in a good way, while Paps makes his saves entertaining in a not so good way.

I agree with all of this. My "The Team is Boring" statement is meant to reflect a shift in player-type over the past few seasons, a shift that may be contributing (obviously not the only or even major factor) to overall ratings. And again, it reflects the viewership of CASUAL fans, not people like us.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Random thoughts about Brad Penny: (Through June 5)



Many bad pitchers would get 5 wins when their team averaged over 8 runs per game in games in which you get the win. Still, people talk about quality starts. Fair enough. A 'quality start' (3 earned runs or less in 6 IP) may hold your team in the game but seriously, I can't believe that giving up a run every other inning will win you many ballgames. I think that while a quality start is a stat that can help you get a decent contract these days, it does not make you a very good pitcher if that is what you have to point to as a high point.

When MLB adopts your criteria, Penny will indeed have two quality starts. As it happens, they have not, so he has six, his record is 5-2 and the team is 6-5 on days he pitches. In short, our #5 starter is performing like a #5 starter, and is being paid as such (actually, he's a little bit of a steal). He will likely bring us something of at least nominal value when he is traded, which he surely will be. I guess I just don't see much to get excited about here, and I can't fathom the dislike he engenders in some folks (which may not include you).

[OttoC]

Well, for the Sox, who score 5+ R/Game, 3 in Six is a QS, in the sense that it gives the team a strong likelihood of victory. It's a bad stat that it gives you nothing predictively, and says nothing about the underlying quality of pitching, but I think it is actually somewhat useful as a crude measurement of past real-world effectiveness.

2 ER in 6 IP is perhaps too restrictive a criterion to tell you much about how effectively an SP is keeping the team in games.

I looked at Quality Starts and what I term QS+ starts (no more than 2 ER in 6+ innings) and found that around 80% of the QS are also QS+.

[snowmanny]

I agree with all of this. My "The Team is Boring" statement is meant to reflect a shift in player-type over the past few seasons, a shift that may be contributing (obviously not the only or even major factor) to overall ratings. And again, it reflects the viewership of CASUAL fans, not people like us.

Agree as well. I've certainly heard from casual fans I know that these Red Sox are boring. Someone actually was complaining to me Thursday that the team was dull and said that Ellsbury was the only interesting player left. Part of that may be the nature of casual fandom: I recall hearing the same thing about the Patriots a few years into their run of successful seasons. But there is no doubt that Millar, Manny, Damon, Pedro, Schilling et al were each great theatre in their own way and that could be a ratings factor.

Personally though, I think the combination of concurrent Bruins games (I missed three Red Sox games because my cable did not carry them) and all those West Coast games are a bigger part of the equation.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

Instead of bringing this to the Papelbon thread, I thought this random factoid fit better here: Jonathan Papelbon, using Wins Above Replacement, has been the 4th most effective reliever in the Red Sox bullpen, behind Hideki Okakima, Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez.

[SoxScout]

This is kind of odd..

The solution to the Red Sox [team stats]’ shortstop problem may very well have been sitting in the visitors dugout last night.

Veteran Omar Vizquel probably isn’t going anywhere with the Rangers leading the AL West, but he won’t lie - he wishes the Red Sox made a play for him when they had a chance.

“They haven’t even called anybody to see if I’d want to go, or if (Texas) would let me go,” Vizquel said before last night’s 8-1 Sox win at Fenway Park [map]. “They haven’t really called me ever. They didn’t call in the offseason. They didn’t call in spring training. They always talk about it, but they never call the right people to see if I’m available.”

In the interests of accuracy, the Red Sox did inquire about Vizquel this year, but the Rangers weren’t interested in a trade.

Vizquel, the 42-year-old winner of 11 Gold Gloves, is with Texas to act as a mentor to rookie Elvis Andrus and has just 51 at-bats. While he had nothing bad to say about the Rangers, he couldn’t help but envision what kind of fit he’d be in Boston.

“It would have been great,” Vizquel said. “The Red Sox are a veteran team. All I’d have to do here is make the plays at short. I don’t think they’d worry about me hitting too much.”

The Red Sox passed on Vizquel when he was a free agent last winter because they already had Julio Lugo [stats] making $9 million, as well as promising youngster Jed Lowrie. The club had no way to know both would end up injured.

“It seems every time the Red Sox need a shortstop, my name gets brought up,” Vizquel said. “Now, I don’t think I’m in a good position to leave. We’re winning here, we have a good thing going. I don’t know if Texas would really let me go. We’ll see. Maybe later in the season? Who knows. I don’t want to close any doors.”

http://www.bostonher...amp;format=text

The guy seem genuinely sad he is not on the Red Sox.

[dbn]

When MLB adopts your criteria, Penny will indeed have two quality starts.

I looked at Quality Starts and what I term QS+ starts (no more than 2 ER in 6+ innings) and found that around 80% of the QS are also QS+.

Forget "quality starts". Over a the ten year period 1997-2006, AL starters who have given up the same number of runs in IP as Penny has for each start have won the following percentages of times: 0.518, 0.043, 0.518, 0.040, 0.518, 0.523, 0.428, 0.716, 0.570, 0.518, and 0.361, for an average of 0.432, or an expected record of 4.75-6.25. The Red Sox have a better than average offense and a much better than average bullpen, which contribute to his outperforming, record-wise.

In 1 start, he pitched well enough that an average team would have been quite likely win.
In 6 starts, he has pitched good enough that an average team would be slightly more likely to win than lose.
In 2 starts, he has pitched poor enough that an average team would be slightly more likely to lose than win.
In 2 starts, he has pitched poor enough that an average team would be quite likely to lose.

(aside: For me, this is about what I expected from Penny. I don't understand the "good enough for a fifth stater" idea. If they can trade him and replace him with better production from Smoltz or Buchholz, great. If not, well, not.)

[Lynchie]

I looked at Quality Starts and what I term QS+ starts (no more than 2 ER in 6+ innings) and found that around 80% of the QS are also QS+.

I like it thanks, OttoC.

Given that information I'm of the mind that a team that hopes to win it all does not have a pitcher that is in the bottom 20%. Even if he is a 5th starter because we need all pitchers to perform at a high level. The bar needs to be set higher for a team that wants to be a championship team. The teams that settle for 2 or 3 decent pitchers will always be an also ran at the end of the season. Many times we have seen this happen to good teams. Those teams fall short by mid September.

To win overall I think you need 3 studs and two guys who are a step above average to round out your starting staff. Beckett and Lester have taken their game to another level as we have needed. Wake has been doing that too. I don't know if Wake can continue at this pace but I'm sure he was not being counted on to be a staff ace. We must have DiceK (WTH is up with him? He should be a stud too) and our 5th starter to be much better to have a chance to go the distance. Regardless, our studs are on this team already. I think that our 2 'step above average' guys are too. It is my belief that Penny is not one of those guys at this point in his evolution.

[Bellhorn]

I know he has been used to close some games, but most of those games had a fairly large run differential. It seems he usually is brought in in lower leverage situations. Either Sox losing or they are up by a decent amount.

Based on that I am guessing he is #6 in the pecking order. Would others agree? Is he someone they may consider trading back to the NL if they could get a decent return on him?

2009 LI of Sox relievers, from Fangraphs

[Bellhorn]

Instead of bringing this to the Papelbon thread, I thought this random factoid fit better here: Jonathan Papelbon, using Wins Above Replacement, has been the 4th most effective reliever in the Red Sox bullpen, behind Hideki Okakima, Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez.

Where are you getting this from? He leads the pen in both WPA and WXRL.

Edited by Bellhorn, 07 June 2009 - 10:26 AM.

[reggiecleveland]

IS there any chance Penney is skipped and with the off day Lester pitches the last game of the Yankee series?

[singaporesoxfan]

Given that information I'm of the mind that a team that hopes to win it all does not have a pitcher that is in the bottom 20%. Even if he is a 5th starter because we need all pitchers to perform at a high level. The bar needs to be set higher for a team that wants to be a championship team. The teams that settle for 2 or 3 decent pitchers will always be an also ran at the end of the season. Many times we have seen this happen to good teams. Those teams fall short by mid September.

To win overall I think you need 3 studs and two guys who are a step above average to round out your starting staff. Beckett and Lester have taken their game to another level as we have needed. Wake has been doing that too. I don't know if Wake can continue at this pace but I'm sure he was not being counted on to be a staff ace. We must have DiceK (WTH is up with him? He should be a stud too) and our 5th starter to be much better to have a chance to go the distance. Regardless, our studs are on this team already. I think that our 2 'step above average' guys are too. It is my belief that Penny is not one of those guys at this point in his evolution.

Sure, Penny isn't the mutt's nuts but besides your opinion what makes you think a great 5th starter is such a necessary component of a championship team? Arguably the Phillies 2008 rotation of Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton wasn't really that awe inspiring, just good enough. It would be great to upgrade the 5th starter if possible, of course. Just doesn't strike me that Penny is anywhere near the top issue that would kill the Sox's championship chances.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

Sure, Penny isn't the mutt's nuts but besides your opinion what makes you think a great 5th starter is such a necessary component of a championship team? Arguably the Phillies 2008 rotation of Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton wasn't really that awe inspiring, just good enough. It would be great to upgrade the 5th starter if possible, of course. Just doesn't strike me that Penny is anywhere near the top issue that would kill the Sox's championship chances.

Ahhh - the old "5th Starter Argument"

IMO, the only difference bewteen your 5th starter and the rest of the rotation is that, hypothetically, you occasionally skip the 5th starter if the oportunity arises. In other words, your 5th guy will pitch fewer innings. Of course, this is only true if they do, indeed, skip over the 5th starter - which the Sox rarely do.

So - why is it acceptable to say you need a stud starting pitcher on Monday through Thursday and it's OK to have a bum on Friday? Does Friday's game count less in the standings?

Its like saying we have 3 good-to-great infielders so it's OK to have a below replacement level SS.

[CodPiece XL]

I was watching the game yesterday on MLB, it was the NESN feed and Heidi Watney was reporting on Smoltz's start at AAA. She said he will start one more game down there and is likely to pitch on Tuesdsay the 16th against the Marlins. Both Eck and Don seemed very surprised by the news. Any other sources for this?

[Lose Remerswaal]

I was watching the game yesterday on MLB, it was the NESN feed and Heidi Watney was reporting on Smoltz's start at AAA. She said he will start one more game down there and is likely to pitch on Tuesdsay the 16th against the Marlins. Both Eck and Don seemed very surprised by the news. Any other sources for this?

If you check the Smoltz Thread, you'd see that this has been the plan for quite some time.

[CodPiece XL]

If you check the Smoltz Thread, you'd see that this has been the plan for quite some time.

Evidently I didn't read that far back, thanks Lose. I wonder why the NESN pundits seemed surpised, that being the case.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Evidently I didn't read that far back, thanks Lose. I wonder why the NESN pundits seemed surpised, that being the case.

The requirements for being a NESN "pundit":

Pleasing voice
Face for TV
Ability to count to 9
Not swearing on the air

If you listen to a game broadcast and expect analysis beyond what that pitch just was (and even then, take it with a grain of salt), you'll go away sadly underinformed.

[mabrowndog]

In 6 innings so far today, the Sox have ended three innings with idiotic baserunning blunders:

1st - Youkilis picked off 2nd
2nd - Bay caught stealing 2nd (out by a mile)
6th - Ortiz caught stealing 2nd (seriously, like, what the fuck???)

Utterly inexcusable. If you flush three golden opportunities down the toilet like that in the business world, somebody gets fired. Immediately.

[Lose Remerswaal]

If the Sox and Yankee games end up with the current scores (Sox down 6-3, Yanks up 4-3), the series agains NYY will be the Red Sox third in a row against first place teams (Detroit 3-0, Texas 1-2, Yanks ?-?).

And with Philly (the Sox next opponent) only 1/2 game behind the Mets, good chance the Sox face 3 First Place teams in a row in this stretch.

Thank goodness for Marlins, Braves, Nationals, Braves, Orioles, Seattle, Oakland, KC, Toronto coming up after!

[jon abbey]

And with Philly (the Sox next opponent) only 1/2 game behind the Mets, good chance the Sox face 3 First Place teams in a row in this stretch.

Philly is 2 1/2 games ahead of the Mets pending tonight's game.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Philly is 2 1/2 games ahead of the Mets pending tonight's game.

You're right. Not sure what I was looking at before, or how I misread it. Thanks for the correction

[LoweSox]

If the Sox and Yankee games end up with the current scores (Sox down 6-3, Yanks up 4-3), the series agains NYY will be the Red Sox third in a row against first place teams (Detroit 3-0, Texas 1-2, Yanks ?-?).

And with Philly (the Sox next opponent) only 1/2 game behind the Mets, good chance the Sox face 3 First Place teams in a row in this stretch.

Thank goodness for Marlins, Braves, Nationals, Braves, Orioles, Seattle, Oakland, KC, Toronto coming up after!

But could stand to face some pretty tough pitching against Florida and Atlanta, depending on the draw, though admittedly, I'm hoping to see Lowe get one of the starts at Fenway.

[JulE6]

But could stand to face some pretty tough pitching against Florida and Atlanta, depending on the draw, though admittedly, I'm hoping to see Lowe get one of the starts at Fenway.

Early projection looks like Volstad, Miller, Nolasco vs. Florida