1391 replies to this topic

[OttoC]

He has also been caught stealing 3 times this year (vs only once last year).

Plus he's had a few baserunning adventures.

[paulftodd]

Little over reaction! Why in the world would the Sox write of the season when they are in second place whentheir top starting 3 have been sub par their dh has done nothing and the have had more then their fair share of injuries.

Dice-K, Lowrie/Lugo and Youk for 2 weeks is hardly more than our fair share of injuries. This assumes Papi is not playing injured, which may not be a valid assumption. Injuries have not been a big problem relative to other teams if Papi is not hurt.

But I agree, it's hardly time to be looking for a bridge to jump off. Beckett and Lester should pitch better even if Wakefield might regress. Penny and Masterson have been Ok. Smoltz and Buchholz are on the horizon, as is Dice-K (that may be good or bad)

Big Papi really hasn't hurt much since we had Bay, Lowell and Youk picking up the slack and driving in runs. But he hurts more with Youk out and Lowell cooling off in May and eventually his poor hitting will hurt in the W column if it continues.

Defense at SS has been awful. Together Lugo and Green have made 10 errors at SS in 32 games. Lugos range and ability to turn a DP have also been awful, while Green seems better in this regard.

The Red Sox have been fortunate in having a fairly easy schedule and facing some real bad pitching (starting and bullpen). We have been able to miss the other teams top pitchers more often than not. This has tended to make it easier to ignore some of these holes.

So I don't think we need to worry much about the starting pitching in May, and we may have to live with the situation at SS, but we can not continue with that black hole in the number 3 spot in the order. Big Papi has to return, or something needs to be done. Lets hope a few days off did the big guy some good. Give him another month if he is healthy. If it turns out there really is some issue with his wrist, I will be very disappointed in the team for not putting him on the DL.

Assuming a worst case like BiG Papi is gone. I do not think a trade to replace his bat at DH is needed. There are players on this team who can benefit from stints at DH. Guys like Drew, Lowell, Lugo and Youk. Of course, the bench has been pretty awful as well except for Green, so this would not work unless there was some improvement there.

Given the payroll deduction from 2008, and the depth in the starting rotation, as well as our prospects, the team is well positioned to make a deal to fill any holes in July. Too many things go into being able to make a trade, so I won't bother to suggest any, but there is no reason to write this team off in May.

[cmurphycode]

The Red Sox lead the majors with 43 GDP. The league average right now is 28 (AL average is 30)
They hit into 147 last year and are on pace to hit into 183 this year. Absolutely brutal.


I suppose this is the obvious down side to constructing a lineup around slow hitters with high obp

Not necessarily. Here's a great article about grounding into double plays. Quick takeaway: Giambi, Howard, Thome, and Ortiz are on the top of the list for Double Plays Avoided (DPA).

[paulftodd]

Not necessarily. Here's a great article about grounding into double plays. Quick takeaway: Giambi, Howard, Thome, and Ortiz are on the top of the list for Double Plays Avoided (DPA).

To add to this. Extreme FB hitters have lower DP rates, no matter how slow they are. Ortiz and Pena have a low GB rate (27%) and high K rate (Ortiz is 23%) so they put fewer balls in play as a GB with ROB. Papi has 4 SF, his problem is his FB's all stay in the park now, unlike Pena. When you couple slow speed with a high GB rate and low K rate, like Lowells and Pedroias 37% GB rate and a 12 and 8% K rate, and add to this a large number of opportunities, and you will see a lot more DP's.

But for every DP that Pedroia and Lowell give you, they give far more back in other ways. I am pretty sure Pedroias DP rate will normalize, not so confident about Lowell, but batting 7th his DP's won't hurt as much. Higher in the order they will.

Lowells speed when he gets on base may cost more than his DP's. To my surprise, according to BP Dustin DP Pedroia has a worse baserunning rating than Lowell, costing the team 2 runs above average, due to his CS rate and other adventures. Dustin does not seem as quick this year, you wonder if he is playing through something. It must be the WBC's fault.

[OCD SS]

Another interesting thing about the players in that study is that the slow, flyball hitters who have good DPA numbers all mostly have the shift put on them. I wonder if that doesn't also account for some reduction in DP's as the guy playing in shallow RF isn't going to be able to turn two.

[Alternate34]

Don't most good offenses suffer from a lot of double plays because they have more men on base? I know bad defenses will often record more double plays because they allow more men on base.

Also, it seems that the person on base in front of a player would effect their GDP rate and I haven't seen a study that looks at that. A faster runner on base ahead of you would be a more likely candidate to run and would also be more likely to disrupt a double play. This could cause a cumulative effect on teams that have no speed in their lineup because a player would always bat with a slow guy on base ahead of them

I guess the whole point is GDP numbers have to be adjusted in order to determine if they are really killing a team more than normal.

[OttoC]

I'm not sure how you rate a player's speed except subjectively. For example, Pedroia was stole 20 bases last season and was only caught once, but I'm not inclined to think of him as a fast runner. I think GDPs need to be looked at in context, when they occurred in the game and the comparative game scores when they occir. A doubleplay with a runner on first and one out in the bottom of the 8th when you are leading 12-3 probably has a lot less impact on the outcome of the game than one with the bases loaded with one out in the bottom of the 8th when you are trailing by a run. Baseball-reference.com has this type of information in the play-by-play accounts of games: wWPA and wWE.

[TheShynessClinic]

If not for a blown umpire call, and a good defensive play on a rocket, Ellsbury could have gone 4-4 tonight.

He's really been playing well recently. This pleases me.

[InstantKarmma]

I mentioned this elsewhere, but it belongs here as well.

Wakefield's "year-to-year team option" contract is the Deal of the Century for the Sox.

[CaptainLaddie]

I mentioned this elsewhere, but it belongs here as well.

Wakefield's "year-to-year team option" contract is the Deal of the Century for the Sox.

It's the deal of the century for baseball. $4m a year for a guy who gives you 150-200 innings of 4.15-4.70 ERA is invaluable, especially in the AL. Yes, with Wake you have to put up with the caddy and the problem come the playoffs (ie, when he sucks, you are fucked), but to get you there it's fantastic.

[cannonball 1729]

It's the deal of the century for baseball. $4m a year for a guy who gives you 150-200 innings of 4.15-4.70 ERA is invaluable, especially in the AL. Yes, with Wake you have to put up with the caddy and the problem come the playoffs (ie, when he sucks, you are fucked), but to get you there it's fantastic.

And the caddy isn't even as much of an encumbrance as everyone thinks, given that the typical AL backup catcher a.) sucks at offense and b.) plays about 40 games a season, just like Wakefield's caddy.

[Eric Van]

Yes, with Wake you have to put up with the caddy and the problem come the playoffs (ie, when he sucks, you are fucked), but to get you there it's fantastic.

As was pointed out in his own thread, it has nothing to do with the playoffs per se. It's that once he suffers an injury (which has happened almost every year in July or August), at his age he is incapable of making any kind of comeback to form. But the job he can do for you until the nearly inevitable second-half physical breakdown -- that's terrific.

[Fishercat]

Today, it appears that Fangraphs has added Pitch Type Linear Weights. I'll let the statistically inclined explain it, but here is the explanation from Fangraphs

You may have noticed a new section in the player pages called "Pitch Type Linear Weights".

First of all a huge thanks goes out to Dave Allen and his tremendous work over at baseballanalysts.com. With his help, we've implemented his linear weights by pitch framework using the Baseball Info Solutions pitch type data.

What this section does is it uses linear weights by count and by event and breaks it down by each pitch type so you can see in runs the actual effectiveness of each pitch.

There are two stats for each pitch type. The first one is preceded by a "w" and this is the cumulative runs above average for a particular pitch type. Then there are the statistics trailed by "/C" which denotes runs above average per 100 pitches of that type.

This is kind of a first stab at the data and the weights we're using are per an actual event, so singles, doubles, triples, etc... are weighted properly using data from 2005-2008. Behind the scenes we're also calculating the data by batted ball type, so there's always the possibility of displaying a "defense neutral" runs above average by pitch type as well.

Right now we're only showing this in the pitcher's stats pages and for the Baseball Info Solutions data. I expect over the next month that we'll roll this out in the PitchFx sections and the leaderboards and maybe even for Plate Discipline stats.

Someone else can explain it better, but it appears to give an idea to how effective a given pitch is for a given pitcher in terms of runs above or below average.

I'm just browsing it now, but Wakefield's fastball has been absurdly off the charts this year by this metric. His knuckleball has been 3.3 runs above average and his fastball has been 3 runs above average...and the knuckler's been thrown over eight times more often. Using their per 100 pitches that puts him at 3.83 runs above average per 100 pitches with the fastball, using their tool. Obviously, if it got used more than 10% of the time, I doubt major leaguers would have issues teeing off on a fastball 15 MPH lower than any other SP, but still. For comparison sake though, Greinke's per 100 with his fastball is 2.97...his slider is 3.23, and both his other pitches are above 1.

I hope someone can use this far better than my understanding of linear weights allows me to, which is "oooooh, look at the numbers, how big they are!"

[saintnick912]

My take on that is that Wakefield's fastball very often gives him a strike in a count/situation very favorable to the batter, and thus seems disproportionately important to his success. As you said, it's one of those things that could not be expanded to a wider use. In a way I feel this may be an outlier like how the BABIP for a knuckleball pitcher or extreme groundball pitcher truly does stay away from league average year after year.

[JBill]

Great youtube of the Ellsbury steal of home from a fan at the game. Excellent footage and view (steal is at 1:06).

[TheoShmeo]

This might be premature, but with Smoltz's return now somewhat in sight and possibly happening during the Braves series in June, I keep wondering about what the Sox will do when Smoltz is ready to start at the major league level IF no one is injured and everyone is pitching about as they are right now (with the exception of Daisuke, who I assume will be pitching better) at the time.

The obvious response is that these things have a way of ironing themselves out, and it's possible or even likely that one of the starters will be hurt or demonstrably ineffective by then.

With several veterans on the staff and, more pointedly, with Brad Penny on the team, that retort doesn't require much imagination. Still, it was only five years ago that Sox starters made every turn during the course of a full season, benching any of Lester, Beckett and DMat seems inconceivable, Wake -- the pitcher many would have guessed before the season would have been moved to the pen to make way for Smoltz -- has been the Sox most consistent starter and Penny has quietly given the Sox several quality starts.

As a result, if you assume my hypothetical for the purpose of discussion, the answer to the question is not obvious.

Is there any chance that the Sox will not put Smoltz into the rotation when he's ready?

Could it be anyone other than Penny?

Edited by TheoShmeo, 25 May 2009 - 07:50 AM.

[cwright]

This is probably not much of a story, but I didn't see it mentioned anywhere else (after an admittedly cursory glance). According to mlb.com, Terry Francona was examined by EMTs at the Metrodome due to a spike in his blood pressure level (after being ejected).
Francona's reaction: "I just got a little worked up and my blood pressure shot up. But I'm fine."

[sachilles]

This is probably not much of a story, but I didn't see it mentioned anywhere else (after an admittedly cursory glance). According to mlb.com, Terry Francona was examined by EMTs at the Metrodome due to a spike in his blood pressure level (after being ejected).
Francona's reaction: "I just got a little worked up and my blood pressure shot up. But I'm fine."

Of all the things he deals with on a daily basis, and that's that thing that gets his pressure up?

[mabrowndog]

Ted Williams memorabilia stolen from auction

SWANZEY, N.H. -- Ted Williams' fishing license and personal notes on local fishing holes have been swiped during an auction preview in New Hampshire.

Auctioneer John Pappas tells the New Hampshire Sunday News the stolen items had drawn strong interest and could have fetched $1,000 or more at Saturday's auction. The 1970 license for "Theodore Williams" was in a small holder attached to a fishing cap, and the notes were tucked inside. The items were taken from the Knotty Pine Auction Service last week.

Saturday's auction was the second time the auction service has sold items for Williams' third wife, Dolores Wettach Williams. The model and actress was married to the Boston Red Sox hall of famer from 1967 to 1973. The items come from their Vermont home.

Note to self: Don't hire John Pappas and his shitty security to sell off any of my valuables.

[sachilles]

I see a few threads where folks would like to see Youk over at third instead of Lowell.

I'm wondering what the sosh wisdom is Concering Youk. Is Youk a better third basemen or first baseman?
Is he more valuable as a 3b or 1b?

[SoxScout]

Jon Heyman on MLB Network and Twitter tonight saying the Sox want a hitter badly. Throwing around Dunn's name.

[CaptainLaddie]

And FWIW, Steve Phillips on the ESPN telecast says he's hearing a lot about the Sox and Holliday.

You'd have to rotate him and Bay at DH? I mean, getting Dunn is a DH/1B replacement. Getting Holliday is a LF/DH replacement, which is a much bigger deal since you have the most productive LF in baseball right now (his OPS is lower than Ibanez, but his OBP is 19 points higher).

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't see how Holliday fits at all. Where does he play? I can't imagine either he or Bay wants to DH in a contract year, and I don't see anyone on this roster who can play CF full time if Ellsbury is moved (and there's no way they can move Drew). Holliday is having a crappy year and is a FA to be; I can't imagine the Sox would give up a lot and then risk losing both he and Bay next off-season. There were rumors in Gammons column that Holliday may only be able to get 3 years, $30-$40 this offseason so maybe the Sox would sign him prior to a deal but that's pretty unlikely, and then what happens with Bay / Drew? I don't really see how this could happen unless Beane and Theo are trying to arrange a ridiculously complicated 7 team deal.

Dunn is somewhat more realistic, I guess.

[SoxScout]

Holliday is having a crappy year

Just a crappy April. He had a great May and has a homer and double tonight to start June.

[Rudy Pemberton]

He had a pretty good May (291 / 416 / 456). I'm wondering where his power is. SLG was 607 in '07, 538 in '08, 416 so far in '09.

[OCD SS]

You'd have to rotate him and Bay at DH? I mean, getting Dunn is a DH/1B replacement. Getting Holliday is a LF/DH replacement, which is a much bigger deal since you have the most productive LF in baseball right now (his OPS is lower than Ibanez, but his OBP is 19 points higher).

3 things to consider:

1. Holliday is probably a better defender.
2. Bay is having a career year, with an OPS 81 points over anything he has ever managed to do in a full season.
3. Having both Bay and Holliday puts the Sox in the cat-bird seat for re-signing one of them for 2010 and either will net the team 2 draft picks.

The playing time in LF would be tricky, but I'd rather the Sox try try and improve their all around game than trade for Dunn.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Having both Bay and Holliday puts the Sox in the cat-bird seat for re-signing one of them for 2010 and either will net the team 2 draft picks.

Having this "insurance" might also make the FO less likely to hesitate on signing an impact Type A if they see someone they want.

That said, I doubt Beane settles for a deal that would look good from our perspective. How much would you give up for a partial season of Holliday when he could easily end up in New York next year? Probably less than what Beane would hold out for. Two picks are nice but a guy like Michael Bowden isn't worth it.

[absintheofmalaise]

He had a pretty good May (291 / 416 / 456). I'm wondering where his power is. SLG was 607 in '07, 538 in '08, 416 so far in '09.

Denver. His slg at home for his career is .631. On the road it's .453

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I see a few threads where folks would like to see Youk over at third instead of Lowell.

I'm wondering what the sosh wisdom is Concering Youk. Is Youk a better third basemen or first baseman?
Is he more valuable as a 3b or 1b?

It isn't as much about whether Youks is more valuable as a 3B or 1B as it is about whether Lowell is better as a 3B or DH. He is a statue at this point (see: the dive he needed for the play on Rolen's grounder yesterday) with no range. Add in the issues at SS and the defense on the left side is atrocious right now.

Given the continuing conern over Papi, finding a 1B (which shouldn't be that difficult) and moving parts aorund to get Lowell some reps at DH would likely be pretty significant.

Personally, while the focus has been on Nick Johnson, I also think Aubrey Huff would look nice in a Sox uni right about now.

Edited by Papelbon's Poutine, 01 June 2009 - 10:09 PM.

[Harry Hooper]

Jon Heyman on MLB Network and Twitter tonight saying the Sox want a hitter badly. Throwing around Dunn's name.

I've been pushing for Victor Martinez since the end of '08, and there's no reason to stop now. He's a nice consolation prize for losing out on Teixeira and directly or indirectly protects against breakdowns at DH, 1B, 3B, and C.

[shepard50]

I've been pushing for Victor Martinez since the end of '08, and there's no reason to stop now. He's a nice consolation prize for losing out on Teixeira and directly or indirectly protects against breakdowns at DH, 1B, 3B, and C.

I so desperately want it to be true...

There has been talk among scouts that the Indians might be willing to deal 29-year-old catcher/first baseman/DH Victor Martinez for young pitching. Martinez, who earns $5.7 million this season and $7 million in his option season next year, is hitting .409 with 7 homers and 25 RBIs.

Linkosity

You're right that it immediately creates huge flexibility right where we need it. Of course, here on SOSH where we have tons of opinions and Theo never calls, it immediately raises two questions (because it's fun to opine, and you know, he just might want a steer one of these days:

1. Who's going the other way? I'd have to assume one each of Bowden/Buchholz and Bard/Delcarmen possibly plus another prospect...
2. Who's sitting, or who's going to make sure that you bat Martinez as much as possible? (Is it simply platoon the old guys more: Lowell and Ortiz rotate the DH, DFA Kottaras and get Martinez a few starts at 1b when Lowell DHs?) Because the pressure he takes off is all at positions where we get nothing back for our older expensive guys (Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz)

[DieHardSoxFan1]

Jon Heyman on MLB Network and Twitter tonight saying the Sox want a hitter badly. Throwing around Dunn's name.

Earlier today, I was thinking about potential trade options and Adam Dunn seemed like the perfect fit. Dunn, who signed a modest 2/$20million contract with NATSTOWN last offseason, is hitting .270 with 16 HRs in 2009. More importantly, his .399 OBP ranks 15th in the NL, and his robust .573 SLG is 6th best in the senior circuit.

The most pressing question, of course, is what would it take to pry Dunn away from the bumbling Nats? With such a reasonable contract, the Nats won't be in any hurry to unload him, and given their well-documented pitching woes I think they will want a Michael Bowden is return.

As for Holliday, he's clearly the better defender in LF. UZR had him at +9.1 last year and +14.2 in 2007. The problem with acquiring Holliday, a free agent after this season, is two fold. 1) Any team who trades for Holliday might be looking at a two or three month rental, and 2) Because of Holliday's impending free agency, A's GM Billy Beane likely will demand a hefty package of young players for the All-Star left fielder. Beane is well aware that if opposing teams fail to meet his asking price, he can simply hang onto Holliday and collect two compensatory draft picks after the season, when Holliday signs with another club.

Personally, I think Holliday is the better fit because of his superior defensive ability. Bay has proven to be an underwhelming defender in LF, and his poor play in the field is one of the primary reasons the Sox rank 27th in the league in defensive efficiency. Of course, Dunn probably would come at a cheaper cost, and he'd fit in nicely as our 2010 DH.

[Sausage in Section 17]

I see a few threads where folks would like to see Youk over at third instead of Lowell.

I'm wondering what the sosh wisdom is Concering Youk. Is Youk a better third basemen or first baseman?
Is he more valuable as a 3b or 1b?

I wonder if Lowell could learn to play a serviceable 1st base, and that just by switching positions with Youkilis the Sox would upgrade their infield defense?

Obviously unlikely in the middle of the season.

[Eric Van]

Jon Heyman on MLB Network and Twitter tonight saying the Sox want a hitter badly. Throwing around Dunn's name.

Almost certainly premature and in a way false, although still true in a way and telling.

The way the Sox F.O. works, I believe, is that they don't wait until they have to make a move to start making the appropriate phone calls. Hence they are inquiring now about SS in case Lowrie returns and after a while it's clear that he is hampered by the wrist. And they are calling about bats now because they realize they may need to pull the plug on Papi as a full time player, perhaps in a month or around the ASB. When and if the decision to give up on Ortiz 2009 as a lost cause is made, they want on that day to know exactly who is available and what the asking price for each guy is.

[NDame616]

What about Russell Branyan? He's mashing the ball, and would fit the OF/corner IF/DH positions. While he's not gret defensively, and it would be a lot better as him just playing 1B/DH, he does have some flexibility as to where he can play.

H heas cut down on his Ks this season and last season (which he only played 50 games) He struck out ~33% of his ABs every season, and this year and last was around 25%.

I know the AL West is somewhat open, so I don't know how realistic it is that Seattle stays close.

[OCD SS]

That said, I doubt Beane settles for a deal that would look good from our perspective. How much would you give up for a partial season of Holliday when he could easily end up in New York next year? Probably less than what Beane would hold out for. Two picks are nice but a guy like Michael Bowden isn't worth it.

Potentially, but I thought the package Oakland gave up to get him was surprisingly weak; I have a hard time seeing even Billy Beane get such a dramatic increase in value for less of Holliday's time, especially with his new home park supressing his numbers somewhat.

[smastroyin]

Random thoughts on recent discussions in this thread:

- I wish the Sox had had my hard on for Adrian Gonzalez when he was cheap. Or maybe they did but just didn't have the overpaid mediocre pitcher that Texas wanted at the time. Too bad we didn't trade Bronson Arroyo for him instead of WMP. (joke)

- I agree with the thought that the Sox should not be acquiring another DH unless it is purely as a short term rental. Ortiz when he was hitting was one of the ten best hitters in the game and then it's worth having to cripple your flexibility for him. A guy even like Dunn is not at that level to me. This lineup is old and the it would be nice if the DH slot could be used as a way of giving guys part of a day off without having to run out a AAAA lineup.

- Youk is not as good a 3B as he is a 1B in my opinion, but compare that to the gimp and I think it would be a wise move. But if it is merely to move Lowell to 1B then you might not see that much of an overall gain, if any. It has to be to take Lowell out of the field more often (see above comment on old lineup and the DH), or it's not worth doing, IMO.

- Victor Martinez I would acquire merely for the length of his contract, at the end of which he will likely want to double his salary in exchange for no longer even being able to put on the tools of ignorance without being a total liability. A great add for the next two years, though.

[TheoShmeo]

Potentially, but I thought the package Oakland gave up to get him was surprisingly weak; I have a hard time seeing even Billy Beane get such a dramatic increase in value for less of Holliday's time, especially with his new home park supressing his numbers somewhat.

I don't think Beane will make what he gave up for Holliday much of a factor in what he'll demand in trade talks. Said differently, the price will be a function of what he can get for him and not what he paid.

I'm assuming that the price for Holliday will be very high and given the possibility that his numbers will never approach what he did in Denver, I'd rather see them go for a surer bet like Victor Martinez.

[OCD SS]

I don't think Beane will make what he gave up for Holliday much of a factor in what he'll demand in trade talks. Said differently, the price will be a function of what he can get for him and not what he paid.

Oh, I don't think Beane will make it a factor at all, but I think it goes towards Holliday's perceived value. It seems that (at least recently) GMs are not willing to be seen as overpaying (it's almost a "we cannot be seen to negotiate with terrorists" mindset), especially for 2 month rental players. Oakland is already 10 games out and in their division's basement, so unless there's a rush on him I think Beane is going to be looking at several offers that are designed to be just over the value of the 2 draft picks he'll otherwise get.

I'm assuming that the price for Holliday will be very high and given the possibility that his numbers will never approach what he did in Denver, I'd rather see them go for a surer bet like Victor Martinez.

I'd rather have Martinez, but I think the cost for him would be much higher (almost sure to include Buchholz) since he's cost controlled for another year. I can't see any scenario where Holliday doesn't cost significantly less.

Edited by OCD SS, 02 June 2009 - 07:29 AM.

[pokey_reese]

I imagine that the FO will be waiting to see what they can/do get for Penny before making a deal for a bat, so that they will know a.) whether they can get a valuable enough chip for Penny to substitute for one of our prospects in another trade, and b.) whether Buchholz will be needed for pitching depth on this club. Once Smoltz makes another rehab start or two at the AAA level and Theo talks to the Phillies a little more, we should have a much better idea about whether or not we will need our young pitchers in the short-term.

[Titoschew]

Potentially, but I thought the package Oakland gave up to get him was surprisingly weak; I have a hard time seeing even Billy Beane get such a dramatic increase in value for less of Holliday's time, especially with his new home park supressing his numbers somewhat.

It's surprisingly weak likely because the man on the other end of the line was Dan O'Dowd.

I agree on Beane. Just look at what Teixeira cost the Braves and then what he cost the Angels. Salty, Feliz, Harrison, and Andrus turned into a return of Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek. I would think Beane would see "breaking even" as a success in his moves with Holliday.

[TheoShmeo]

I'd rather have Martinez, but I think the cost for him would be much higher (almost sure to include Buchholz) since he's cost controlled for another year. I can't see any scenario where Holliday doesn't cost significantly less.

I'd hate to see them move Buchholz and doubt that they will do that absent a monster deal (like Hanley). At the same time, I'd be prepared to pay signficantly more for Martinez than I would for Holliday. With Bay here, I think Holliday's arrival would create some issues -- absent Drew's annual trip to the DL -- as I don't see either of them as a DH or as an occasional 1B. Martinez doesn't create any of those issues, he's cost controlled at a manageable amount for this year and next year and he's a DH/1B/C if absolutely necessary. And as mentioned earlier, there's no "Coor's risk." More to the point, they're going to have to part with real value to get anything material done and once they're doing that, I'd rather see them go for broke. Of course, it's a question of price in any deal, but once they're spending, I'd prefer to see them get a player who is extremely likely to contribute and is unlikely to create collateral issues.

[sachilles]

Any character issues with these potential acquisitions? I have a feeling that Theo will consider if the player will fit in to the clubhouse before he picks up somebody new.

[Pandemonium67]

I cannot imagine Theo giving up quality young pitchers for 3 months of Holliday, so he'd have to agree to an extension for a deal to work. With the wanks' outfield in need of an overhaul this offseason, I don't see Boras letting Holliday sign any in-season extension.

IOW, a trade for Holliday would be possible only if Holliday decides he wants out of Oakland so badly that he'll sign an extension despite the counsel of his agent.

[Quintanariffic]

I cannot imagine Theo giving up quality young pitchers for 3 months of Holliday, so he'd have to agree to an extension for a deal to work. With the wanks' outfield in need of an overhaul this offseason, I don't see Boras letting Holliday sign any in-season extension.

IOW, a trade for Holliday would be possible only if Holliday decides he wants out of Oakland so badly that he'll sign an extension despite the counsel of his agent.

It bears repeating for the millionth time that no Boras client has ever signed a mid-season extension in their FA year. He always, always goes to FA. So your point about doing this despite the counsel of his agent is spot on.

[OCD SS]

The fact that he won't sign an extension is a given, but that only serves to lower what Beane can expect to get for him.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

The fact that he won't sign an extension is a given, but that only serves to lower what Beane can expect to get for him.

Or you can look at this from another angle. Billy Beane can demand a hefty price and simply tell an opposing GM, "if you don't want to pay I'll gladly collect my two picks in December."

[Rudy Pemberton]

While true, if the market still sucks and / or Holliday has a crappy year, can't he just accept a $15-$18M arbitration award and go back at it next year?

[SoxScout]

Heyman on WFAN:

-- Penny for Donald is not real and never was.

-- Red Sox have a lot of different options right now. Holliday (for 2 very good prospects), Huff, Willingham, Dunn, Johnson all on the list they are going after. People in baseball are saying Theo is very aggressive and is not going to wait for the deadline as he is trying to beat the Braves/Giants/Mets to the punch for the best hitter.

-- Red Sox could get Hanley back and have the prospects to get it done between Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson and Lowrie. Marlins afraid of looking bad however. Hanley, Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez are the guys they are making sure they absolutely can not get before settling for one of the others (thinks it will be Johnson).

-- Going to be an extremely active trade period between now and the deadline.