272 replies to this topic

[NDame616]

If they can discuss this on the main board, us lowly lurkers can also certainly discuss the DH situation on Yawkey Way.

I'll preface this with, this isn't reactionary. I had major concerns about Ortiz at the end of last season, during this offseason, and during spring training. I don't care that he put up (another) 0-4, 2K line today. Power hitters having major wrist problems is like expecting your racecar to run with two tires.....

Is he cooked? Or is he just having another slow start?
I think it may be somewhere in the middle, maybe leaning towards him being cooked. He died at the end of last year, including batting .154 vs. the Rays. Granted, that was only 7 games, but he didn't exactly impress vs. LAA batting .235. Maybe his wrist can't take a 150 game season anymore...

While I don't expect him to keep hitting at the .150 clip he's gracing us with now, I think the days where David Ortiz being "one of the most feared hitters in baseball" are long gone. And I think managers will soon realize that, especially when they are throwing a power pitcher, and I think managers will be more likely to go after him, making his walks really go down.

The options are really limited. Maybe that's why we went after Tex so hard, because Theo et all knew Ortiz's numbers would drop off the season. Sure, we can try to trade for Cabrera, but the haul for him will be a king's ransom...and if you honestly think a 21-year-old Lars Anderson, who has played about 50 games at AA ball, is an option this season, you are probably over valuing our prospects.

Anyone who has watched Tito manage can't expect him to drop Ortiz on the order, so I don't think the suggestion of moving him to 5th or 6th is an option.

So what can we expect from him?
I think he will bat around .250 this year, hit 20 home runs and drive in 75 while playing in 100 games. Basically, a little worse than last season. I also don't think these are adaquate numbers for a DH who hits third on a big market team competing for a World Series.

But will Tito sit him, and will Theo find a replacement? Theo was asleep at the wheel on the Tek situation, and because he didn't address the fact two years ago that we have a declining catcher, Tek will be behind the plate for another two seasons. I *really* hope Theo will be proactive in the DH situation because much of the success of the 2003-2007 teams were the Manny-Ortiz combo.....and, well, apparently half of that didn't work out for this season.....Maybe he's hoping by the time he's *really* done, that'll be when Lars is ready for the show.

No, the world is not ending. No, Ortiz is not going to hit .150 all season. However, when is it something we can actually discuss as an issue? It's not like he had a 1.000 OPS last season and he's just slumping....he has a major, swing-altering injury, and his decline probably started last season. Whether his decline is due to age, health, or *ahem* lack of chemical assistance (runs and hides....) something is making him a less than palatable DH batting third.
Am I jumping the gun with these concerns?

[brs3]

Am I jumping the gun with these concerns?

In my opinion, yes. I haven't been compelled to look too deeply into any players numbers yet, because it's still April. Ortiz, career-wise, has been a late bloomer. He heats up in June, July & August. It's been 12 games, and since the last game in the Angels series, he hasn't had 2 straight 0'fer games before getting a hit. We're at the point where a couple hits in a game boosts or drops numbers by a lot. Just like it only took a 4 game winning streak to get back to .500, it only takes a few hits to calm the masses. If it's late May and we're still having this conversation, then maybe we get concerned.

[foulkehampshire]

Due to the small sample size of stats early into the season, its hard to actually evaluate a hitter on a week-to-week basis. Anybody can look like Pujols or Mendoza on any given series, week...sometimes even a month at a time. I mean, a few multiple hit games with a couple XBH, BB, and HR's...and his OPS is over .900. But FWIW, he's looked God awful so far this year, especially today.

Just as hitters perform way beyond their capabilities the first couple weeks (Nick Swisher), there's going to be the ones who do the opposite.

Personally, I think hope he's just pressing. Most great hitters don't fall off a cliff that fast.

Edited by foulkehampshire, 19 April 2009 - 07:43 PM.

[okin15]

Doesn't the possibility of Ortiz being washed up give us a good reason to try Carter in there once a week? Kotsay is on his way back, and we haven't even seen what the kid can do. It's the same thing as in 2003 when Ortiz was riding pine while Daubach struggled. I think Chris will get a chance to spell either Youk, Lowell or Papi in the morning game tomorrow, but I wish he could have played today as well.

Edited by okin15, 19 April 2009 - 07:50 PM.

[Laser Show]

I do agree that he's looke putrid this year, but he does have a LD% of 18, 1% under the MLB average, and 3% under his career average.

Looking at the rest of his ratio batting stats, a couple things jumped out at me. One is that his K/BB ratio has jumped from 1.06 last year to 2 this year. Also, his GB/FB ratio is down to 0.27 this year, compared to his 0.56 career average. This jibes with what we've seen, missing his pitches and popping them up. I don't know what to make of this though.

I think the best course of action would be to deal with it and move on. We've played 12 games, so these numbers are next to meaningless. I always thought he'd bounce back this year, but it's not looking good.

I'm a little worried, but talk to me at the in May.

[Fishercat]

I'm mixed on this one.

It is only twelve games in. I'm hardpressed to think of a player except those in the highest of the elite (like Bonds in the early 2000's) where you couldn't find a twelve game streak where they were putrid. However, there are definitely concerns to be noted, many of which were made in the first post and I won't repeat. For the first time in several years, he's walking at a rate where his OBP isn't 100 points or more higher than his BA. His slugging is absolutely non existant, his BABIP is down but not enough to account for the significantly lower production stats.

Additionally, this is purely visually based, but it seems like a lot of his hits that would have been singles or doubles in the past are now sac flies and bloopers. This is better than when his wrist was a complete wreck and he was known as "Big Pop-Up", but as a Sox DH, he probably needs to get to the point where he can rip the ball again.

I don't think benching him is the option, and he should still start, there's way too much positive history to ditch him for Chris Carter right now. However, I think he would benefit heavily from consistent days off (maybe once a week on a non-Varitek day to give a good PH) and giving Carter ANY time to play.

Of course, it's still a very small sample size, but there are notable percentage changes that do indicate a distinct change in how they're pitching him and how he's reacting. He's seeing more strikes (near his Minnesota days and 5% less than his Boston time). He's not being caught looking on nearly as many strikes as usual, which is either good (He's getting calls and getting a better sense of the strike zone) or bad (he's swinging at pitches he didn't used to). As a corrollary, he's swinging at more strikes (and missing), and that isn't good either. The one that worries me most is his foul ball percentage, which is pretty starkly high, about 10% over league average and a good amount more than his normal. Meaning he may make contact, but it's of lower quality. Swinging at more pitches, getting worse hits, not putting balls in play, swinging more often on first pitches, and getting caught looking for third strikes way too often. It's still a small sample, and I think a lot of that will normalize over the year if he produces, but some of it is cause for alarm.

He's still too good to bench, but I think he could use a readjustment and some more film watching to see what he is actually swinging at that is different than in the past and if he can start catching up to those fastballs.

[Doctor G]

I think Theo should call the Nats and see if they want to send Nick Johnson over for MDC. hey are desperate for anyone who might possibly pitch in the 8th or 9nt inning. his would give the Sox a way to rest Youk and Lowell with owrie potentially out of the picture. hat does this have to do with Papi? If he continues to struggle we would have an alternative who is also a good first baseman.

[CreightonGubanich]

In the "biggest X factors" thread, I submitted David Ortiz for just this reason. If he struggles, there's no alternatives. This team lives and dies, at least offensively, with Ortiz in the middle of the lineup.

He's not going to be benched, and he's not going to split time with anyone. He's entrenched, as long as he's healthy, as this team's DH. The discussion has centered around "what do we do?". The answer is, nothing - except, perhaps, to try to make up the lost production elsewhere in the lineup, if Ortiz's struggles continue into, say, July. If they trade for Cabrera, which I highly doubt, it will be as an upgrade to Mike Lowell, not a replacement for Ortiz.

He's looked awful so far. But its very, very early, and its certainly possible for a hitter to look as bad as Ortiz does, and find his stroke. Purely subjectively, I'd call this "probable" at this point; Ortiz might morph into the "slugger" phase of his career, like Old Frank Thomas or Jim Thome, but I don't think he'll drop off the table entirely. He might never hit .330 again, but I find it very hard to believe that there's not 30-HR power remaining.

[pokey_reese]

I will admit that while I have been preaching small sample sizes and patience in some of the other threads, I am worried about Ortiz. While I know that most of our players are going to bring up their numbers to get in line with career averages, I am less confident that Ortiz will do so, though admittedly it is based primarily on subjective measures, since the stats aren't reliable this far into the season. All I know is that last year we were talking about how Ortiz might be in decline because he couldn't seem to deal with quality fastballs, and anything 94 mph+ seemed to be a real problem. On Friday I was at the park for the O's game, and 2 of his 3 Ks were on fastballs at 92 and 89 mph, without much movement. Obviously this doesn't mean anything definitive, but I also found myself feeling worse about Ortiz coming to the plate than Varitek, and I didn't like that at all.

On the plus side, I am happy to report that I have said this same sort of thing about other hitters at this point in the season in years past, and been very wrong. God knows, there are things that I am good at and I screw them up or get out of whack from time to time, without worrying that I have 'lost it.' If we look at the opposite example, Youk is hitting almost .500 so far. Is he going to keep it up? No, of course not. But if he is hitting 200 points above his career average, it means that he is just 'locked in,' so there is no reason that one day next week Ortiz can't start 'seeing the ball well' and go on a tear. Remember how Drew looked really mediocre until June last year, then put up a 1.200 OPS that month? It is still chilly at Fenway, when the weather heats up, Ortiz might too.

[lexrageorge]

Should there be cause for concern? Given last year's injuries and subpar performance, age/weight factors and the history of large sluggers declining suddenly in their mid-30's, and the slow start this season, sure. There were reasons Theo & Co. went after Tex.

What should be done now? Really, nothing, other than giving Papi an occasional day off. 2 weeks is too short of time to do anything drastic.

How much of a factor is the so-called "lack of protection in the lineup", aka, Manny being Manny in LA? Absolutely not a factor at all. A lineup of Pedroia, Youks, Drew, Bay, and even a recovering Lowell is not exactly swiss cheese. Yes, the Sox do have some lineup questions at leadoff and at the end of the order that may affect run production. But they don't affect Papi's OBA. If I hear anymore complaining about this from Ortiz or his apologists I will vomit.

What can or should be done? The tough questions have to be answered around Memorial Day if the slump continues with no sign of progress. In that case, the one choice is to drop Ortiz in the order. Yes, this may ruffle a few feathers, but 2 months is more than enough time to give an established veteran a chance to prove he belongs in the #3 hole. Contrary to popular belief, Francona has shown he's willing to do this if needed, so this is a distinct possibility.

The good news is that trading for a bat is usually easier than trading for starting pitching. So, look for the Sox to be active in June/July if Ortiz is still a concern. There will likely be sellers, but it's way too early to bank on any specific player being available (exhibit A: Jake Peavy).

A lot of this will become moot if Ortiz hits .465 with 7 HR's in May, which is why you never doing anything drastic on the basis of 12 games.

[Rick V]

I feel he's cooked.

He looked very bad last year (even before he hurt his wrist).

He looked bad this Spring.

He's looked putrid 12 games into this season. He's not even hittting loud foul balls. Missing by a ton damn near every swing. He's going down 0-2 almost every at bat.

1 extra base hit this season (a double).

[adixs]

It is early and normally it would be difficult to put a lot of stock into the numbers. But he looks physically overmatched.
Last year imo he started to fall and he gained some footing in the second half. He was banged up last year but that is what happens as you age. You get prone to injury and slow down on all fronts. He is going to age quicker than most.

This year, he may regain a little footing but he will regress further. The Papi of old is gone and it really should not be a suprise. This is a big part of the hard push for Tex last year.

His double really was fortunate.....if the ball was not bobbled after the throw, he was out.

I am grateful to him for what he has done but the chapter is winding down quickly.

[NDame616]

As I said earlier, my thoughts aren't based just on these 12 games....but it certainly adds to my concern. He's a big guy, had leg and heart problems in the past, we are nervous putting him at 1B for 10 games a season, his wrist injury is much documented, etc.

I would never start a "when do we worry about Pedroia" thread based on these 12 games. With Dustin, I think he's just in a slump. Based on all the factors surrounding Ortiz's season, it gives me more concern than someone who is just simply slumping. His swing has been affected post wrist injury, and that will have serious ramifications on his season. Soon, managers will be more likely to challenge him, go after him hard inside with fastballs instead of pitching around him.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I feel he's cooked.

He looked very bad last year (even before he hurt his wrist).

He looked bad this Spring.

He's looked putrid 12 games into this season. He's not even hittting loud foul balls. Missing by a ton damn near every swing. He's going down 0-2 almost every at bat.

1 extra base hit this season (a double).

He looked bad last April, no doubt. Twelve games into last season, he had only one extra base hit as well, a HR in Oakland.

He looked GREAT last May up until he got hurt. .318 BA during the month to raise his average to .252 at the time of the wrist injury (he was hitting a robust .070 after 12 games, and below .200 until 5/2). He also was up to 13 HR and 43 RBI on the season at the time of the injury. Assuming he continued the pace without the wrist injury, he was very much in line to total 35-40 HR for the season.

As for the "eyeball" test this season, I think some of that is basically seeing what we want to see. If you're looking for signs that he's cooked or lost it, then you're going to find them even if it's nitpicky and minor. I personally prefer to wait at least until May before I trust the numbers OR my eyes. As has been said, anyone can have a stretch of 10-12 games where they look horrible, and "find" it soon after. It's too early for any concern, IMO.

As I type, a good poke off the Wall for Ortiz (apologies for turning this into a game thread). That happened to me the last time I was typing a "too soon to worry" post about Ortiz last week...he hit his double in Oakland. Weird.

[BucketOBalls]

I think alot of the reason people are talking about this is that he(physically) looks like Mo Vaughn.

Really, hitting is a very sensative thing(I remember Manny talking about how he changed his offseason routine in 2007 and it messed up his timing for the first half of the year).

Worst case is his injury is still bothering him. Another possibility is that last year just messed up his mechanics(as he couldn't do what he had done before)/mental state and he'll go back to something more similar to his old self when he's more used to feeling better and more confident. Not sure how long that would take though.

I think it's to small a sample size to say he is done. But, given how bad he looks, I think it's more than a slump. How long do people think he should be given? My guess is probably till the all-star break. Although if he's still this bad a month from now, I think you have to DL him or something.

[GradyWilliams]

I would never start a "when do we worry about Pedroia" thread based on these 12 games. With Dustin, I think he's just in a slump. Based on all the factors surrounding Ortiz's season, it gives me more concern than someone who is just simply slumping. His swing has been affected post wrist injury, and that will have serious ramifications on his season. Soon, managers will be more likely to challenge him, go after him hard inside with fastballs instead of pitching around him.

I think there is a big difference between Papi and Pedroia. If Pedroia was a 34 (or older) out of shape player past his prime coming off injury, I think you would see that thread. But, our lil 2Bman is healthy and begininng his prime years so the feeling is that it's just an early season slump (which he is known for).

Teams are already coming after Papi inside with the heat, we've seen it all season. He's being challenged and not meeting the challenge. Now is it because he's done? I don't think so but the Papi of years past is not walking thru that door. Hopefully that working with Magadan to get Ortiz ready to swing earlier (boston.com Link) will show up in the games sooner rather than later. I fear that in truth Papi may have not fully recovered from the wrist injury and it is still "weak" if not bothering him, which is sapping all of his power. That would be preferable to Ortiz falling off a cliff and never being heard from again.

I agree that Papi will probably hit .260 25 HRs and around 100 ribbies if he can make the necessary adjustments this year. I wouldn't mind seeing what Carter can do with 6-8 ABs per week including 1 start and some PH. Tito has to play Ortiz almost everyday to get him the reps and a chance to break out of it, but I wouldn't mind seeing Youks in that 3 hole while we wait for Papi to come around.

No reason to worry just yet. If he looks helpless out there in late may or so then It will be time for a change. No more facing Lefties (gives him extra time to rest as well) and dropping him in the order. I'm sure it will sting the ego, but it will be necessary for the club if it comes down to that.

Edited by GradyWilliams, 20 April 2009 - 11:21 AM.

[NDame616]

Not that I think anyone will put much stock into the talking heads at ESPN, but Stark has an article today where he discusses struggling/surging players and if their start to the season is an illusion or reality. He chimed in on Ortiz:

"David Ortiz (.170 AVG., 1 extra-base hit, 14 K, 8 hits) -- REALITY: Every scout we've talked to who has seen Ortiz is downright alarmed by his vanishing bat speed. "He's starting to go quick," one scout said. "His body is breaking down on him. He isn't even catching up to average fastballs, and he's not even driving the ball the other way. If he can't hit the fastball, they're going to eat him alive. I don't think he's going to be a .170 hitter. But he's not a guy who can carry a club -- not anymore.""

http://sports.espn.g...r...&id=4082916

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Further evidence for the "way too early to judge" as well as the SSS factor...

Entering today: .170 BA, .191 SLG
After today: .196 BA, .275 SLG

One 2 for 4 day in August doesn't result in a 26 point jump in BA or an 84 point jump in SLG. That's why April is too early for any real evaluation.

[sachilles]

They are talking to him on the radio right now.

Papi said he's been working on his mechanics. He laughed a bit and said it was like he was on vacation this early part of the season. He said thankfully it was happening early in the season.

[Drew7]

The Yanks should go after him, his weak pop ups will be dingers in that new stadium.
In all seriousness, while I understand that he's on the downside of his career, it is early and he's starting to go to the opposite field. We all know he starts to get right when he uses the opposite field.
Lets wait a little while longer before we trade for Miggy Cabrera

[FinanceAdvice]

I know Ortiz is past his prime years. But to say hes "cooked" or "washed up", to me is a bit of a stretch. On a personal side, I think he may miss Manny. Yet more importantly, I think its a situation of bad mechanics. I think Papi said it himself that hitting is mostly about timing. It starts with seeing the pitch come of of the pitchers hands and then simply timing him up. I know its a very simplistic way of putting it and there are other factors. So I believe that Papi will put up very respectable numbers. Willl he be the Papi of '04 - '07? No realistically I dont see that. Will he be aforce to still be reckoned with? I think he will be.

On a related topic, and I know others have brought this up, but I would have liked to see more of Chris Carter DHing. I know it would have cut out some of Papi's time in getting mechanics down but I would have liked to see more of Carter.

I sure hope Lars Anderson is progressing well and quickly.

[effectivelywild]

From ESPN's recap of today's game

Ortiz: "It felt good today," he said. "I've been working with my mechanics. I've been a little late with pitches, which is something I usually don't do."


Pedroia, who is no stranger to slumps: "He'll be all right. He swung the bat well today," he said. "It's a long year. Six hundred at-bats. The season isn't 50 at-bats."

You know, everyone is talking about how slow Ortiz's bat looks, but I remember a certain 3rd baseman who was totally washed up and cooked. How did he do that year again?

[NDame616]

From ESPN's recap of today's game

Ortiz: "It felt good today," he said. "I've been working with my mechanics. I've been a little late with pitches, which is something I usually don't do."
Pedroia, who is no stranger to slumps: "He'll be all right. He swung the bat well today," he said. "It's a long year. Six hundred at-bats. The season isn't 50 at-bats."

You know, everyone is talking about how slow Ortiz's bat looks, but I remember a certain 3rd baseman who was totally washed up and cooked. How did he do that year again?

rule of thumb: always ignore players or managers comments about their performance. Ortiz could be hitting .070 in August and a beat reporter could ask him how he felt after going 3-4 with 2 HRs and he will say he's the best he's felt in his career. What a player says doesn't mean squat, ever. Do you honestly see a situation where he would say "you know man...I'm old, I'm tired, and I'm just not the hitter I was a few years ago"

I won't say he's cooked based on one game just like I won't say he's turned the corner based on one game. My concern is based ona pattern of his play post injury, not just on 13 games this season.

[foulkehampshire]

I won't say he's cooked based on one game just like I won't say he's turned the corner based on one game. My concern is based ona pattern of his play post injury, not just on 13 games this season.

True. We all seem to forget he had a .900 OPS after returning from a wrist injury last season. The only time Papi was healthy and firing on all cylinders was May, when he hit .313/.409/617.

Remember all the scouts (and most of us 'boxers) mentioning how Manny had seemed to lose bat speed and couldn't handle fastballs anymore? (2008)

[My Dixie - Wrecked!]

As much as Harold Reynolds seems to think that there's one more good baseball analyst than there really is, he made some interesting points (on the MLB Channel) last night, when comparing Ortiz' swing this year with his swing from prior years.

Where in the past, Papi had a perceptible, but not jarring leg-lift (right leg, or course) as he began to swing at a pitch, that element appears to be missing this year. Now, he raises it only slightly, without lifting his right foot off the ground (in past years, he'd get that foot about 6 inches off the ground).

Reynolds felt that the "leg-lift" A) kept Ortiz balanced and B) somehow enabled him to see the ball better.

Maybe there's something to it. Regardless, Ortiz apparently has NOT lost his off-field stroke. As the weather continues to warm (allowing batted balls, generally, to travel farther), maybe going to left field will be his salvation.

If nothing else, it would loosen up the defense (i.e. - "the Shift") and give him more open spots to hit towards when he DOES happen to pull the ball.

[effectivelywild]

rule of thumb: always ignore players or managers comments about their performance. Ortiz could be hitting .070 in August and a beat reporter could ask him how he felt after going 3-4 with 2 HRs and he will say he's the best he's felt in his career. What a player says doesn't mean squat, ever. Do you honestly see a situation where he would say "you know man...I'm old, I'm tired, and I'm just not the hitter I was a few years ago"

I won't say he's cooked based on one game just like I won't say he's turned the corner based on one game. My concern is based ona pattern of his play post injury, not just on 13 games this season.

Sorry, I should have been more specific. What I was trying to point out is that it seems like every year we have a player start off slow (Lowell, Manny, etc) and we decide that, based on a few at-bats his bat is too slow, he's cooked, he's done. Then, he makes some adjustments and the sky stops falling. I felt like Ortiz's and Pedroia's comments reflected that.

That being said, even with one good game, I wouldn't be against having Papi get dropped down in the order a bit as he works with his mechanics. Do I think it'll happen? Well, when was the last time Tito dropped someone like Ortiz?

I think the only way we see a whole lot of Carter as the DH is if the slump extends for a few months.

[sachilles]

I don't buy the whole "missing Manny" thing. They aren't walking Papi to get to Youk. They are attacking him, cause they'd rather not face Youk.
If Youk wasn't pulling his weight behind him, I'd understand the concern.
I think Papi will be fine. Manny is gone, that ship has sailed. Papi will recover. The whole offense has had a weak start with the exception Youk, so I don't think it is fair to single out Papi. Pedroia started slow, maybe his career is cooked.
Lets see how the next two series go, especially the MFY.

[decshealy]

I don't buy the whole "missing Manny" thing. They aren't walking Papi to get to Youk. They are attacking him, cause they'd rather not face Youk.
If Youk wasn't pulling his weight behind him, I'd understand the concern.
I think Papi will be fine. Manny is gone, that ship has sailed. Papi will recover. The whole offense has had a weak start with the exception Youk, so I don't think it is fair to single out Papi. Pedroia started slow, maybe his career is cooked.
Lets see how the next two series go, especially the MFY.

I think that Ortiz finally embraced having Youkilis hit behind him, pitchers don't want anyone on base with Youk at the plate. Once again though, it is tough to have an educated discussion about any player's slums and streak this early in the season. I am not going to count last year's injury plagued season in evaluating Ortiz.

[betheriver]

Youkilis has done an excellent job hitting behind Papi, I just don't buy the whole "no protection" bullshit. Wasn't Papi hitting 4th when he first broke into the lineup? He didn't have any protection then, either.

I won't write Papi off yet, but I think he needs to transform himself as a hitter. While the HR power may be fading, he can still be useful as a guy who can hit to the opposite field and drive runners in.

Even if he isn't cooked yet, he most certainly will be before his deal is done. I think everyone knew this would happen at some point judging by his body type and the ever-mounting injuries. It's been worth it for the 5 years from 03-07 when it seemed like you just couldn't get the guy out when it mattered. There is no ring in 2004 without this guy. I think those memories cloud judgement and make us think this is just a prolonged slump, when in fact it's more likely age and injury-related decline.

I personally think he should swap spots with Drew. Of course I also posted a few weeks ago suggesting Drew should lead off for awhile, so what do I know?

Edited by betheriver, 23 April 2009 - 12:43 PM.

[Drew7]

No discussion about Papi's comments in regards to Joba?

http://www.nypost.co...t_us_165712.htm

[Spinach312]

Probably should refer this to the Dale and Holley thread: But today this Spankees Zombie called up and tried to justify Joba's actions with what supposedly Beckett did in 2007 against the Yankees. You just cannot justify one bad action for another. Which is what this idiot did over the air.


As far as Papi is concerned, I don't believe that he is out of the woods yet. His swing still looks a little out of whack, but he IS hitting, and that itself is a good sign. And I do retract my comments on him "missing Manny." Maybe in the beginning, but now it seems as if he's gotten that out of his system.

[pokey_reese]

With Chamberlain and Burnett going over the next two days we will get a good chance to see how Ortiz handles the 95-mph fastball. It would be nice to see him pull something, since his recent hits have just about all been the other way, but I am glad that the Yankees are coming to town the first weekend that the temperature is supposed to really climb. Tomorrow should be sunny and in the 70s when Ortiz steps to the plate, which ought to make him happy.

[Drew7]

Ortiz looked lost at the plate tonight. Not even a good approach. Ugh...

[Rick V]

He looked so bad last night against the Yankees it was ridiculous. 4 Ks in 6 ABs.

Serious loss of bat speed.

[bosockboy]

Two words: Nick Johnson. Perfect insurance policy for Papi and quality backup 1B that can spell Youkilis and Lowell in case of injury. I'd really like to see him come here in lieu of Kotsay later in the year.

The results are still in the SSS area being it's still April..but the majority of the AB's aren't competitive. I don't think it's any more complicated than he never recovered from that wrist injury.

[Drew7]

The results are still in the SSS area being it's still April..but the majority of the AB's aren't competitive. I don't think it's any more complicated than he never recovered from that wrist injury.

I think you're right. I was listening to WFAN this morning and Richard Neer was making a case that Papi hadn't healed yet. He was making a comparison to last year's Delgado. While some people think he quit on Willie, you have to remember that Delgado was coming back from a wrist injury and didn't start getting back to form 'til almost mid season. I hope this is the case, in the sense that he will come around once 100%. And if it is the case, I hope comes around sooner than later.
I just thought that was an interesting comparison.
Hmmm...

[bosockboy]

I think its interesting that Mike Lowell, who didn't lift a bat for at least three months and only resumed baseball activities in mid-February, has fully regained his bat speed and stroke. Whereas Papi is still completely off on timing and totally lost.

That comparison is pretty telling for me. I worried Lowell might not be really hitting like his old self to June/July and he's already a freaking MVP candidate.

We're going to just have to ride this out, but its tough to watch when you would rather have Nick Green at the plate with a runner on third and one out.

[NDame616]

I think its interesting that Mike Lowell, who didn't lift a bat for at least three months and only resumed baseball activities in mid-February, has fully regained his bat speed and stroke. Whereas Papi is still completely off on timing and totally lost.

That comparison is pretty telling for me. I worried Lowell might not be really hitting like his old self to June/July and he's already a freaking MVP candidate.

We're going to just have to ride this out, but its tough to watch when you would rather have Nick Green at the plate with a runner on third and one out.

They each have seperate injuries that are affecting certain parts of their game. Watching Lowell on the bases sometimes is like watching a drunk leaving the local pub at 2 am after 10 cent draft night.

[sachilles]

I would wager that if Papi and Lowell raced around the bases today, it would be a close race

I'm not sure what point in time you start worrying about Papi, but it'll be soon. If you look at his hitting stats compared to the rest of team, you'll see he's at the bottom of the list(of the starters). He is leading the team in strike outs. Ellsbury and Varitek are above Papi, in avg, OBP, slug and home runs.
It's not like we use him to fill in on defense either.

Some say his bat speed has dropped, and I'm not sure how they quantify that. I doubt that is really the case. I think it is more of a timing issue. I don't think he's seeing the pitches as well as he use to, and as a result he is late. He use to do a lot of check swings, holding up the bat at the last possible moment. I wonder if his wrist injury has hindered that physically or even mentally.

It is easier to tolerate since the rest of the offense seems to be doing darn well at the moment.

[mwonow]

I'm starting to wonder if the problem is mental rather than physical. Papi hasn't "been Papi" for some time now - not just physically, but in terms of a presence. His body language after an AB is terrible, and he just doesn't seem "right" beyond that (like saying that the Yankees are just another game...also, did I just miss him in the pile after Youks' walk off, or did he not come out of the dugout?).

(I'm assuming here that he'd be tested for stuff like diabetes, which hits people of his size/age, and has an effect on strength and attitude both...)

Mental/emotional issues have more of a stigma than wrist injuries, and they don't show up on an MRI or x-ray. But that doesn't mean that they don't happen in pro sports, and I think it's possible that Papi could use a prescription for something that balances him out a little bit - it might restore his power better than whatever A-Rod was putting in his cornflakes in Texas...

[10.27.04]

Anyone see this SI.com story? Has some interesting stats in the second half of the article about Ortiz swinging more freely and making less contact...

http://sportsillustr...rtiz/index.html

[bosockboy]

I would wager that if Papi and Lowell raced around the bases today, it would be a close race

I'm not sure what point in time you start worrying about Papi, but it'll be soon. If you look at his hitting stats compared to the rest of team, you'll see he's at the bottom of the list(of the starters). He is leading the team in strike outs. Ellsbury and Varitek are above Papi, in avg, OBP, slug and home runs.
It's not like we use him to fill in on defense either.

Some say his bat speed has dropped, and I'm not sure how they quantify that. I doubt that is really the case. I think it is more of a timing issue. I don't think he's seeing the pitches as well as he use to, and as a result he is late. He use to do a lot of check swings, holding up the bat at the last possible moment. I wonder if his wrist injury has hindered that physically or even mentally.

It is easier to tolerate since the rest of the offense seems to be doing darn well at the moment.

I think the bat speed thing is quantified by the way teams are going after him. Get two strikes on him and climb the ladder with high heat. Slow bats can't deal with high heat, and he's unable to lay off of it for some reason.

[Rick V]

Based on everything I've seen this year I don't know why every pitcher who can throw 92 mph or better doesn't give Papi high heat. He doesn't appear capable of making contact with a high strike.

As far as I'm concerned he should keep trying to do what he's done the last several games - go the other way. He won't hit HR's but with the shift he'll get some cheap singles and doubles. He just doesn't appear to have HR power anymore.

[BoredViewer]

Ortiz looks like a guy that has lost strength and bat speed. To compensate he's starting his swings earlier and being much less selective at the plate. I don't think he even has the option of being selective because if he waits on a pitch, he won't catch up to it if it IS a strike. It's a very Tek-ian approach. Guess on every pitch and hope one of the ones you decide to swing at is in the zone and you put good wood on it...

My solutions... use a lighter bat and/or start seriously working out and get stronger. Otherwise, I think he'll continue to be 1989JimRice.

[mcpickl]

Based on everything I've seen this year I don't know why every pitcher who can throw 92 mph or better doesn't give Papi high heat. He doesn't appear capable of making contact with a high strike.

As far as I'm concerned he should keep trying to do what he's done the last several games - go the other way. He won't hit HR's but with the shift he'll get some cheap singles and doubles. He just doesn't appear to have HR power anymore.

Because there are a lot of crummy pitchers in baseball?

Bad location on high heat becomes middle heat and ends up getting hit very, very hard.

[Metrician]

1b/DH types having --almost-- as poor an April/May as Ortiz:

Derrek Lee, Todd Helton, Lance Berkman, Papi. All are in the 33,34 age group. The common denominator seems to be chunky guys coming off an '08 injury, Helton's being the most serious (back surgery). The four are off to dreadful starts.

Berkman might be an interesting trade candidate as he's still hitting HR's and is a SH who can play some OF. I think is only signed through '10 and he's going to start hitting for average. Now Papi, that's another story.

[My Dixie - Wrecked!]

Ortiz looks like a guy that has lost strength and bat speed. To compensate he's starting his swings earlier and being much less selective at the plate. I don't think he even has the option of being selective because if he waits on a pitch, he won't catch up to it if it IS a strike.

My solutions... use a lighter bat and/or start seriously working out and get stronger. Otherwise, I think he'll continue to be 1989JimRice.

It does look that way, doesn't it? I'm also thinking of Rice for another reason - diminished eyesight, and the possible need for correction, which was one of Rice's problems in his later career. You would think that they already checked it out (or that they check EVERY player's vision at least once a year), but who knows?

The "lighter bat" possibility, especially given A) the current overall quality of pitching throughout MLB and B) the way in which the ball travels these days HAS to be considered. You could almost understand George Scott's refusal to use a lighter bat back in the late 70s when he was hitting .215 or so. Back then, it was almost a requirement to use a heavy bat if one wanted to put up decent "power" numbers, but such has NOT been the case for at least the past 10-15 years.

The "early" or anticipatory swing (and the resulting expansion of Papi's strike zone) reminds me of yet ANOTHER player - Nomar, during his last two seasons or so with the RS.

Regardless, most teams are still employing "the shift" against him - I hope that he takes advantage of that as much as possible. If nothing else, going to left field might "buy" him a needed fraction of a second, so he doesn't have to start his swings earlier.

A couple of days off couldn't hurt him, but either way, I don't get the sense that he's "all done". Now, whether that's wishful thinking or not, I couldn't tell you. Maybe having Pedroia intentionally walked in front of him last night will somehow crank him up and spur a few power displays in the coming week.

[dj548]

1b/DH types having --almost-- as poor an April/May as Ortiz:

Derrek Lee, Todd Helton, Lance Berkman, Papi. All are in the 33,34 age group. The common denominator seems to be chunky guys coming off an '08 injury, Helton's being the most serious (back surgery). The four are off to dreadful starts.

Berkman might be an interesting trade candidate as he's still hitting HR's and is a SH who can play some OF. I think is only signed through '10 and he's going to start hitting for average. Now Papi, that's another story.

I was thinking the same thing the other night, trying to find a ray of hope after watching Papi be late on an 88mph Lance Cormier fastball. Some 3-hole type hitters expected to carry their team's offenses are having horrendous starts to the year.

Ortiz: . .215/0/12--.605 OPS
Teixeira: .181/3/10--.691 OPS
Berkman: .166/6/12--.718 OPS
Lee: .207/2/11--.593 OPS
Hamilton: .242/2/10--.660 OPS

Edited by dj548, 03 May 2009 - 07:52 AM.

[sachilles]

I thought for sure he'D put one in the fish tank last night. He pulled one hard that went foul, and he had at least one at bat where he battled for a while. I'm hoping this afternoon he jacks one.

Edited by sachilles, 03 May 2009 - 11:12 AM.

[rocco75]

Never thought I would see the day when they intentionally walk Pedroia to get to Papi. I just can't believe the end came so quick. I love and respect everything he's done for the team but at this point, Chris Carter or Jeff Bailey would make a better DH. He's completely lost at the plate. A lot of people have been comparing Ortiz to Tek 08. It actually might even be worse than that. Please Papi prove me wrong today.