436 replies to this topic

[OCD SS]

Gammons was on ESPN radio in NYC, and ended up talking about Boston's pursuit of a catcher for a little bit (mostly leading in from the idea that the market is terrible and that Boras has really misread it). Here are the pertinent points:

1. He thinks Tek will get about $1-2.M.
2. It will probably be from the Sox as he doesn't see Bard catching 120 games.
3. He thinks Boston is more likely to trade with AZ.

[mabrowndog]

Here are the pertinent points:

1. He thinks Tek will get about $1-2.M.
2. It will probably be from the Sox as he doesn't see Bard catching 120 games.
3. He thinks Boston is more likely to trade with AZ.

If this was quoted accurately, then (A) I'm stunned, and (B) I fear Gammo's full of shit.

I realize the Sox want to minimize costs wherever possible, and they certainly don't owe Boras any favors, but I just don't envision them insulting Tek by offering him roughly what they'll be paying Bard ($1.6M) if Bard makes the 25-man roster. I'm thinking $4M to $5M is more in the ball park of where they'll end up.

[E5 Yaz]

Again, the perception of "punishing" Tek will come into play. I can't see how he will accept a contract at less than $5M, and I really can't see how something as low as $2M would be seen among his peers. I know this is a minority view, but I do think lowballing Tek excessively would not be taken well in the clubhouse.

I can't imagine, by the way, that Penny and/or Smoltz would come into this dynamic without at least asking whether they'd be throwing to Tek. Regardless of the attitude among the fans about his ability to work with pitchers, the reputation among the players themselves remains a selling point.

[mabrowndog]

Is it really an insult though? They offered Varitek $10M+ on a silver platter and Boras had the balls to decline it. The Sox don't owe Varitek anything. He had the opportunity at a HUGE payday and he turned it down. Tough luck, Jason. If you want to play for this club, it'll be at a severely reduced price.

Why should the Sox pay Varitek a lot more than market value out of fear of "insulting" him? I just don't understand that. It's a business and Varitek/Boras misplayed their hand. For the Sox to throw an extra $3M+ at him as some means of soothing his ego is preposterous to me.

I agree, and if I were King of the Sox that would be my approach. I just don't see the Sox doing so.

Let's face it -- the real reason no other team has made a run at Tek is because he's a Type A. Boras being his agent is more of a minor annoyance. Does anyone really believe no other club would have offered him $4M to $5M if they didn't have to surrender a draft pick to the Sox?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Regardless of how it will be taken in the clubhouse, I can't imagine for an instant that Tek would accept a contract for $2M, let alone $1M, from the Sox. I can dimly imagine that he might accept it from somebody else, once he is convinced the Sox won't go higher, but taking that huge a pay cut from the club he has spent his whole career with would be taking humility to a point that's downright annoying and sets a bad example for downtrodden employees everywhere.

Seriously--there's no reason why the Sox should offer him less than $5M, nor why he should accept less than that. As poor a hitter as he now is, he is still a capable, if not terribly mobile or strong-armed, defensive catcher who knows this staff and this park extremely well. Even if he's not worth $5M in cold, hard bang-for-buck terms, the FO ought to be willing to pony up that much just to protect their own dignity, if not his.

If he really has to settle for $2M from the Sox, I hope he not only fires Boras but strangles him. And I hope I'm on the jury.

[Cuzittt]

I can't imagine, by the way, that Penny and/or Smoltz would come into this dynamic without at least asking whether they'd be throwing to Tek. Regardless of the attitude among the fans about his ability to work with pitchers, the reputation among the players themselves remains a selling point.

But, that seems born of the attitude that you have about Varitek. Perhaps Penny and Smoltz did ask, perhaps they didn't... we honestly don't know. From what I have read quoted, any number of Red Sox personnel have been mentioned... but I can't say I have seen Tek's name as one of them. And both players signed knowing that Varitek was not yet signed and may very well not be signed.

The Red Sox have no obligation to Varitek. They have no reason to overpay for Varitek just because of what he has done in the past. And, the Red Sox have not been a team that sentimentally gives money away for no reason. Now, IF the Sox sign Tek (which I think is less likely than most here), it will likely be for more than Bard's deal... but that means more like $2.5 million. I don't see a $5 million+ pay day in Tek's future.

[OCD SS]

Regardless of how it will be taken in the clubhouse, I can't imagine for an instant that Tek would accept a contract for $2M, let alone $1M, from the Sox. I can dimly imagine that he might accept it from somebody else, once he is convinced the Sox won't go higher, but taking that huge a pay cut from the club he has spent his whole career with would be taking humility to a point that's downright annoying and sets a bad example for downtrodden employees everywhere.

2 things:

• The word "downtrodden" has been woefully under-used in contemporary American English, and I tip my cap to you for attempting to rescue it from linguistic oblivion here.
• I eagerly await your explanation on how Jason Varitek can in any way, shape, or form actually lay claim to being "downtrodden." Now if you were to claim that he and his are good, salt of the Earth folk, I could maybe go with you there, but I think you may need to justify "downtrodden." Next you'll be telling me that if Jason Varitek doesn't get a 10 figure salary his family will be in danger of becoming "dispossessed."

Seriously--there's no reason why the Sox should offer him less than $5M,

How about because he's not a very good baseball player?

...nor why he should accept less than that. As poor a hitter as he now is, he is still a capable, if not terribly mobile or strong-armed, defensive catcher who knows this staff and this park extremely well. Even if he's not worth $5M in cold, hard bang-for-buck terms, the FO ought to be willing to pony up that much just to protect their own dignity, if not his.

Can anyone arguing that Varitek deserves a $5M salary (or, worse, an actual multi-year deal) actually point to something concrete he would do to earn it? I mean if he can't hit, or throw out runners, or move that well behind the plate that well; what the fuck are the Sox going to pay him to do? Can you even provide a breakdown of how you value the different intangibles? Should the Sox pay him more so he can be a leader, handle the pitching staff, or to avoid crushing his spirit?

Edited by OCD SS, 14 January 2009 - 09:09 PM.

[Don Buddin]

Let's assume Smoltz and Penny did ask who their catcher was going to be. Maybe they even stated a preference for Varitek. What could Theo possibly have told them other than Varitek was under consideration as were some other options. It clearly wasn't a determining factor for either pitcher.

I'm sure Theo assured them there would be someone there to make sure their pitches didn't hit the home plate umpire.

[Hairps]

Can anyone arguing that Varitek deserves a $5M salary (or, worse, an actual multi-year deal) actually point to something concrete he would do to earn it? I mean if he can't hit, or throw out runners, or move that well behind the plate that well; what the fuck are the Sox going to pay him to do? Can you even provide a breakdown of how you value the different intangibles? Should the Sox pay him more so he can be a leader, handle the pitching staff, or to avoid crushing his spirit?

Considering the methodology the guys at Fangraphs use to calculate a player's value, Varitek's crappy season last year was still worth $5M:

http://www.fangraphs...e...&position=C

Considering the methodology Sean Smith uses to project a player's value for next season, Varitek looks to be worth between $7.5M (assuming average defense) and $5.3MM (assuming poor defense):

http://baseballproje...varitja0738.htm

This off-season certainly seems to be a buyer's market, and the cost of a first-round unprotected pick weighs heavily on Varitek's market price. So, it's unlikely he'll get the $5M now. No real argument there.

But you were asking for something concrete, so there you go.

[Sprowl]

Regardless of how it will be taken in the clubhouse, I can't imagine for an instant that Tek would accept a contract for $2M, let alone $1M, from the Sox. I can dimly imagine that he might accept it from somebody else, once he is convinced the Sox won't go higher, but taking that huge a pay cut from the club he has spent his whole career with would be taking humility to a point that's downright annoying and sets a bad example for downtrodden employees everywhere.

I eagerly await your explanation on how Jason Varitek can in any way, shape, or form actually lay claim to being "downtrodden." Now if you were to claim that he and his are good, salt of the Earth folk, I could maybe go with you there, but I think you may need to justify "downtrodden." Next you'll be telling me that if Jason Varitek doesn't get a 10 figure salary his family will be in danger of becoming "dispossessed."

It's not so much that Varitek will be dispossessed, as that if his only stock in trade is the Respect Due to a Veteran, then an 80% pay cut means No Respect At All. Cap'n Tek and his long trail of groupie conquests and family (de)values will never be downtrodden: Ol' Tek will not have to go out a-shootin' at some food to keep his family fed. But pride will surely be at stake. Taking an 80% pay cut is pretty sharp for any worker, even one that is losing effectiveness, projects poorly at age 37, and has minimal leverage. At $2m/yr, Varitek is probably worth it to the Mets to give up a lower draft choice, since they've already given up their first-round pick for K-Rod. How much is a mid-second-round pick worth to the Mets, given the well-populated sandwich round that is already filling up?

So how much is a second-round pick worth to the Mets, and would the Sox come up to the Mets' offer to keep Tek? It's an interesting problem in valuation, which for me is colored by the notion that Tek is a reasonably good bet for one more bounce-back year, especially if he's the RH part of a catching platoon.

[E5 Yaz]

But, that seems born of the attitude that you have about Varitek. Perhaps Penny and Smoltz did ask, perhaps they didn't... we honestly don't know. From what I have read quoted, any number of Red Sox personnel have been mentioned... but I can't say I have seen Tek's name as one of them. And both players signed knowing that Varitek was not yet signed and may very well not be signed.

The Red Sox have no obligation to Varitek. They have no reason to overpay for Varitek just because of what he has done in the past. And, the Red Sox have not been a team that sentimentally gives money away for no reason. Now, IF the Sox sign Tek (which I think is less likely than most here), it will likely be for more than Bard's deal... but that means more like $2.5 million. I don't see a $5 million+ pay day in Tek's future.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying here; but, as always, it's a far different thing to be looking at this from a distance than it is from inside the dynamic of of a team. Of course Tek's skills have diminished to the point where he's no longer "worth" (whatever that means anymore) a $5M contract.

But how much is disruption within the clubhouse worth? How much is the confidence of pitchers who have relied on Tek (and here, specifically, I'm thinking about Lester) worth? How much of a loss would it be to have Tek return, feeling as though he had been "disrespected" (to use another undefinable word?

Sitting at our computers, it's an easy call for us; even for those of us who aren't so quick to trash players once their skills fade. But we don't matter much, if at all. Part of what has made the Red Sox run special is the way they go about their business. And we've all read quotes from players that point to Varitek as being critical to that approach. It's not measurable and you can't really put a price tag on it. But in a division with three teams expected to win 90 or more games, how many games would be lost from adjusting to a new catcher, or because the focus of players is leavened by doubts about the fairness of the front office?

If Tek goes, he goes. But the clinical, cavalier approach taken by some folks in this discussion (and I don't mean you here, just this is where my response is being posted) misses the complete picture.

[OCD SS]

But you were asking for something concrete, so there you go.

I was looking for something more in line with what are his intangibles really worth, and what can the Sox expect to pay for them.

The problem I have with the evaluations is that they kind of ignore other options. For instance Bard, Brown, and Kottaras all project to be worth about as much as Tek does and are already under control for a mere fraction of the price. So what makes Tek a reasonable option at $5M?

They're also dependent on the player making these projections, and I'm a lot more skeptical of a 37 yr old catcher bouncing back.

Edit:

Sprowl, are the projection numbers rates, as opposed to being weighted for playing time? How can his value be properly assessed if he's playing the short side of a platoon in that case? I think I'd much rather see the Sox get the picks, which look a lot more valuable than his on field performance.

Edited by OCD SS, 14 January 2009 - 10:31 PM.

[Sprowl]

I was looking for something more in line with what are his intangibles really worth, and what can the Sox expect to pay for them.
...
Sprowl, are the projection numbers rates, as opposed to being weighted for playing time? How can his value be properly assessed if he's playing the short side of a platoon in that case? I think I'd much rather see the Sox get the picks, which look a lot more valuable than his on field performance.

My expectation that Tek will have a good platoon year is a gut impression based on watching him bat right-handed last year, not a projection. The Fangraphs and Baseball Projections links that Hairps provides look pretty impressive, but weighted to offense, and there's really no good way to inventory a catcher's defensive contributions. I haven't seen any breakdowns of catcher defensive performance that make intuitive sense to me, can be quantified, and don't seem like a lot of hand-waving, so valuation of catchers still looks to me like a black box.

Catcher value = intangible value (leadership, captaincy, etc) + tangible quantifiable value (see projections) + tangible unquantifiable value (game-calling, and most catcher defense aside from caught-stealing). The catcher value then gets fed through an economic function with a recession deflator that changes every week (more hand-waving)...

Here's one intangible value it might be worth the Sox to pay for: Tek agreeing to mentor the inevitable young acquisition with the game planning that Tek is supposed to be good at. I also think that that Salty Tek will play better than Salty Bard, especially in the playoffs. Are those enough to outweigh against the draft picks?

Probably not...

[Savin Hillbilly]

I was looking for something more in line with what are his intangibles really worth, and what can the Sox expect to pay for them.

I wasn't suggesting that his intangibles are worth anything very specific, and in case you missed the tongue-in-cheek tone of the "downtrodden" part of my post, my sig should have alerted you that I was not likely to be going that route.

What I was suggesting is that quite apart from what objective metrics say Varitek is worth, there is a limit to the indignity a human being can reasonably be expected to swallow, and for the Sox to end their 12-year association with Tek by handing him a 1-year contract for an 80% pay cut seems to me to exceed that limit. I wasn't saying that he's necessarily worth much more than $2M--only that if he's going to sign a contract at that level, I'll be very surprised if it's with the Sox.

[OCD SS]

I wasn't suggesting that his intangibles are worth anything very specific, and in case you missed the tongue-in-cheek tone of the "downtrodden" part of my post, my sig should have alerted you that I was not likely to be going that route.

D'OH!

What I was suggesting is that quite apart from what objective metrics say Varitek is worth, there is a limit to the indignity a human being can reasonably be expected to swallow, and for the Sox to end their 12-year association with Tek by handing him a 1-year contract for an 80% pay cut seems to me to exceed that limit. I wasn't saying that he's necessarily worth much more than $2M--only that if he's going to sign a contract at that level, I'll be very surprised if it's with the Sox.

I do not buy "the dignity of Jason Varitek" argument at all. If you go down that route I want to know why an 80% cut in pay is somehow below his proletarian tolerance, but a 50% pay cut is OK? If it means that the Sox treat the end of his career with them as ripping off a bandaid rather than drawing it out, then I'm all for it, but it's not a reason to offer him more money.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Jason Varitek has been on the Sox for a long time, the Sox so value his presence that they named him captain 5 years ago. He made $10M last year. No matter what his "market" is, I see no way that he accepts a $2M deal to play with the Red Sox next year. It just won't happen. I can't even envision the Sox offering hm a deal worth that little, how could that go over well? If they truly think Brown, Kottaras, Bard, etc. project to be as good as Tek, than they won't bring him back at all.

This never happens, but I wonder if the Sox could sign him to a $5-6M deal and then flip him to another team for a minor prospect or something. This way, he goes to a team that wants him, that team doesn't have to give up a pick, etc. Nothing is really in it for the Sox- but no matter how hated Tek is around here, the team valued (values?) his leadership and contributions to the club over the past decade, and offering him $2M, when they were willing to give him $10M not that long ago, doesn't appear realistic.

[mabrowndog]

This never happens, but I wonder if the Sox could sign him to a $5-6M deal and then flip him to another team for a minor prospect or something. This way, he goes to a team that wants him, that team doesn't have to give up a pick, etc.

Not without Tek's approval -- he's a 10/5 man.

[Jack Sox]

Jason Varitek has been on the Sox for a long time, the Sox so value his presence that they named him captain 5 years ago. He made $10M last year. No matter what his "market" is, I see no way that he accepts a $2M deal to play with the Red Sox next year. It just won't happen. I can't even envision the Sox offering hm a deal worth that little, how could that go over well? If they truly think Brown, Kottaras, Bard, etc. project to be as good as Tek, than they won't bring him back at all.

This never happens, but I wonder if the Sox could sign him to a $5-6M deal and then flip him to another team for a minor prospect or something. This way, he goes to a team that wants him, that team doesn't have to give up a pick, etc. Nothing is really in it for the Sox- but no matter how hated Tek is around here, the team valued (values?) his leadership and contributions to the club over the past decade, and offering him $2M, when they were willing to give him $10M not that long ago, doesn't appear realistic.

What are Varitek's options, Rudy? No team is going to even bother signing him at this point because of the draft pick issue, and frankly, I don't blame them. He's not worth a 1st rounder. So if the Sox come calling to Varitek offering him 2 million a year, does he just say forget about it and, uh, retire? No, of course he won't. Now the Sox may provide some incentives earnings within the contract, but the base value should be no higher than a couple mil. Varitek has next to nothing for leverage and everyone involved knows it.

As for your latter point, like, really? The Sox sign Varitek for 5-6M and TRADE him? Do you really think that has any damn chance of happening? If you really do...

[Soxfan in Fla]

What are Varitek's options, Rudy? No team is going to even bother signing him at this point because of the draft pick issue, and frankly, I don't blame them. He's not worth a 1st rounder. So if the Sox come calling to Varitek offering him 2 million a year, does he just say forget about it and, uh, retire? No, of course he won't. Now the Sox may provide some incentives earnings within the contract, but the base value should be no higher than a couple mil. Varitek has next to nothing for leverage and everyone involved knows it.

As for your latter point, like, really? The Sox sign Varitek for 5-6M and TRADE him? Do you really think that has any damn chance of happening? If you really do...

I think if Tek resigns with the Sox its in the $3-4 mill range which to me is realistic.

Tek has been absolutely screwed over here by Boras' arrogance. Varitek should be a $10 million member of the Sox next year. Instead he's going to get in the $3-5 range at very best from the Sox or someone else. I hope he fires Boras over this.

[Carmine Hose]

They offered Varitek $10M+ on a silver platter

Can we really look at it this way?

They offered arbitration presumably knowing Boras clients don't accept. Thus, they wanted the Type A FA compensation. No draft order 16-30 team is going to give up a first rounder to get Varitek, even if they need a catcher. Draft order 1-15 teams are also likely loathe to give up their second rounder, especially for a player who will not help them dramatically.

Do you think they would've been pleased if he had accepted and they were on the hook for $10+ million potentially? That's likely more than they'd offer in a 2-year deal.

[mt8thsw9th]

Jason Varitek has been on the Sox for a long time, the Sox so value his presence that they named him captain 5 years ago.

He was also one of the best catchers in the league five years ago. What he or the Red Sox did 5 years ago is really irrelevant to the Red Sox FO's current view of him.

[jsinger121]

I don't get why people think offering Varitek a 2 million dollar contract will hurt clubhouse chemistry. He turned down 10 million dollars. This is a business people and the Red Sox shouldn't be sentimental at all. The Sox should look down route 95 in Foxboro to see what happened with clubhouse chemistry when they whacked Lawyer Milloy over money. I think that turned out pretty well for the Patriots. If they offer $5 million plus to Tek, I will be absolutely disappointed because you don't pay a guy for what he has done for you in the past. You pay for what he has done for you lately.

[behindthepen]

Considering the methodology the guys at Fangraphs use to calculate a player's value, Varitek's crappy season last year was still worth $5M:

Considering the methodology Sean Smith uses to project a player's value for next season, Varitek looks to be worth between $7.5M (assuming average defense) and $5.3MM (assuming poor defense):

Then by my math he owes the Sox $5m for last year.

How badly did Varitek feel when he held them up for that last contract?

[Eric Van]

What are Varitek's options, Rudy? No team is going to even bother signing him at this point because of the draft pick issue, and frankly, I don't blame them. He's not worth a 1st rounder.

There are only 10 teams that would have to give up a 1st round pick vs. 17 that would give up a 2nd (and 1 each that would give up a 3rd and 4th). And those 2nd rounders are mostly the equivalent of former 3rd rounders because of the sandwich picks.

Obviously, if the draft pick compensation were the complete deal-killer you think it was, either the Sox would not have offered arb or Varitek would have accepted it.

[Shea Hillenbagwell]

Can we really look at it this way?

They offered arbitration presumably knowing Boras clients don't accept. Thus, they wanted the Type A FA compensation. No draft order 16-30 team is going to give up a first rounder to get Varitek, even if they need a catcher. Draft order 1-15 teams are also likely loathe to give up their second rounder, especially for a player who will not help them dramatically.

Do you think they would've been pleased if he had accepted and they were on the hook for $10+ million potentially? That's likely more than they'd offer in a 2-year deal.

If Boras has a policy of not accepting arbitration that's his (and his clients) problem, not the Red Sox. That doesn't change the fact that the money was there for the taking.

Now, when its clear that there really is no market for him, is not the time for the Sox to get sentimental. If he doesn't want to play for a one year contract worth a couple of million + incentives then the Sox should look elsewhere.

[maufman]

There are only 10 teams that would have to give up a 1st round pick vs. 17 that would give up a 2nd (and 1 each that would give up a 3rd and 4th). And those 2nd rounders are mostly the equivalent of former 3rd rounders because of the sandwich picks.

Obviously, if the draft pick compensation were the complete deal-killer you think it was, either the Sox would not have offered arb or Varitek would have accepted it.

You're implicitly assuming that Boras didn't make a huge mistake. And perhaps he didn't-- there's still a month for something to come through. At the moment, however, turning down 1/10 to test the market looks like a blunder. Whether that's because Tek is a Type A guy, or simply because most GMs think he's cooked, is beside the point imo.

[xjack]

If the market price for Alex Cora is $2 million, then Varitek is certainly worth $4 or $5 million.

Now I'm not saying that the Sox should give him $5 million, but Varitek's market value suggests that eventually there will be an opportunity for the Sox to do some kind of sign-and-trade with Varitek.

Edited by xjack, 15 January 2009 - 10:17 AM.

[Hairps]

I was looking for something more in line with what are his intangibles really worth, and what can the Sox expect to pay for them.

I'm not sure you're really interested in an answer, but it got me interested.

When Varitek was last a free agent, he was coming off of the following three seasons:

2002: 2.3 WAR
2003: 3.7 WAR
2004: 4.3 WAR

Let's just back-of-the-envelope him as a 3.5 WAR player at that time (using a 5-4-3-2 weighting of previous years and regressing).

Working back from the amount teams have paid, on average, for a win on the free agent market, in the 2004-2005 off-season, it looks like wins were being bought for between $3.1M and $3.5M. So, let's just go with $3.3M.

So, a 3.5 WAR player at $3.3M per win = $11.55M on a one year deal. Discount that 10% for the fact that he signed a multi-year deal, and we get to $10.4M/year.

Obviously, the Sox signed Varitek at that time to a four year deal worth $40M ($10M/year).

At least by looking at the issue this one way, it could be argued that Varitek's intangibles were not valued.

Of course, people can change around any assumptions as they'd like. For example, discounting the one-year contract's "value" 15%, gets you to $9.8M/year for a multi-year contract. In which case, the Sox could be viewed as valuing Varitek's intangibles at $200,000 per season.

This isn't the only way to go about it by any means, but it's the first that occured to me.

Edited by Hairps, 15 January 2009 - 02:15 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

He was also one of the best catchers in the league five years ago. What he or the Red Sox did 5 years ago is really irrelevant to the Red Sox FO's current view of him.

Of course, which is why if the Red Sox feel that way, than they should just not bother offering him a contract. Offering him a $1M deal will excite the segment of Sox fans who for some reason have turned on this guy in the past few years, but I'm really not sure what it accomplishes.

As for your latter point, like, really? The Sox sign Varitek for 5-6M and TRADE him? Do you really think that has any damn chance of happening? If you really do...

It's been rumored that there are teams that are interested in him at that amount, but don't want to give up a pick. I think this scenario is unlikely, but it's more likely than the team's captain accepting a 90% pay cut to return to the Sox.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 15 January 2009 - 10:27 AM.

[TheShynessClinic]

If the market price for Alex Cora is $2 million, then Varitek is certainly worth $4 or $5 million.

Now I'm not saying that the Sox should give him $5 million, but Varitek's market value suggests that eventually there will be an opportunity for the Sox to do some kind of sign-and-trade with Varitek.

For the sake of my argument, let's assume that if the Red Sox DO sign Varitek, it will be under the implication that he will be platooned with one of Bard/Brown/Kottaras.

Player A's line - 152 AB .371 OBP .349 SLG 87 OPS+ - All while playing mediocre defense at two position - 33 years old - yet to show much offensive decline, defensively is losing a step. Smarts - still got em.

Player B's line - 423 AB .313 OBP .359 SLG 73 OPS+ - All while playing mediocre defense at one position - 36 years old - offense has been in steady decline, defense as well. Intangibles - still solid.

Looking at the two of these players, and assuming that they would get roughly the same amount of AB's, which player do you feel would give you the better season in 2009?

( Tek only had 95ABs last season as a RHB, which you would assume is all he would get in a straight platoon)

Edited by TheShynessClinic, 15 January 2009 - 10:39 AM.

[Jack Sox]

It's been rumored that there are teams that are interested in him at that amount, but don't want to give up a pick. I think this scenario is unlikely, but it's more likely than the team's captain accepting a 90% pay cut to return to the Sox.

So not only do you think it's more likely the Sox sign Varitek at 5-6M, but you think they'll sign him with the intention of trading him somewhere else? Completely ignoring the fact that Varitek is a 10-5 guy, this is just extremely unlikely to happen. Varitek's options basically consist of him signing for a 2-2.5 base salary with some incentives to earn more with the Sox, hoping for some team (the Mets, maybe?) to sign him, or yeah, retire? I think if a team was going to give up a pick for Varitek it would have happened already.

[Rudy Pemberton]

So not only do you think it's more likely the Sox sign Varitek at 5-6M, but you think they'll sign him with the intention of trading him somewhere else? Completely ignoring the fact that Varitek is a 10-5 guy, this is just extremely unlikely to happen. Varitek's options basically consist of him signing for a 2-2.5 base salary with some incentives to earn more with the Sox, hoping for some team (the Mets, maybe?) to sign him, or yeah, retire? I think if a team was going to give up a pick for Varitek it would have happened already.

I think a scenario in which the Red Sox sign Tek to a $6M deal and flip him to a team that is willing to give him that amount (but hasn't because it won't give up a pick) for something of less value than a pick is possible, but not likely, esp. because of Boras. It's also questionable whether such a move would be allowed, since it would be borderline collusion. Tek's 10/5 rights are irrelevant; in such a scenario he'd want to go to the team that's trading for him.

Even if legal, I don't think such a scenario is likely at all. I am not betting against Boras though, I just have a hard time envisioning Tek going back to the Sox for 10-20% of what he made last year. That just doesn't happen.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 15 January 2009 - 10:49 AM.

[SoxFanSince57]

I think it is amply clear that Tek is not the team's priority for starting catcher. IMO, it is increasingly clear that he is not their ideal/preferred back-up catcher either. It seems to me that if they wanted him as a back-up they would have told him that and signed him for the role.

Once Tek rejected arbitration, I believe that the FO "communicated" in every possible way that they are prepared to move on. I think everything coming out of Theo's mouth on this subject is PC PR for fan consumption. They don't seem to be keeping their 10M +/- arb-level deal on the table or one would think that Tek would have taken it by now. Tek's negotiating position is beyond weak at this point and it seems like pride(?) more than anything that is keeping him from re-signing a 1-year deal at some face-saving dollar amount. They have 3 in-house catching options and are still talking to the D-Backs and Rangers by all accounts. I would be very surprised if the Sox re-signed Tek at this point.

So to the question of the thread, I think the Sox have already "done" what they are going to do with Tek--they have cut him lose.

For those who blame Boras, please give me a break! Please stop with this blaming Boras BS. Tek is in charge and he is responsible for ALL decisions. Tek screwed himself, not mean old Scott Boras. How about assigning a little "personal responsibility" to Tek on this?

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 15 January 2009 - 10:53 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Red Sox still haven't pulled the trigger on a move for a starting catcher, though. The one guy they signed was curiously signed to a non-guaranteed deal. That they keep talking to Texas and Arizona but haven't done anything suggests to me that Varitek may still be their top target, whether we like it or not.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

If the market price for Alex Cora is $2 million, then Varitek is certainly worth $4 or $5 million.

Now I'm not saying that the Sox should give him $5 million, but Varitek's market value suggests that eventually there will be an opportunity for the Sox to do some kind of sign-and-trade with Varitek.

For the sake of my argument, let's assume that if the Red Sox DO sign Varitek, it will be under the implication that he will be platooned with one of Bard/Brown/Kottaras.

Player A's line - 152 AB .371 OBP .349 SLG 87 OPS+ - All while playing mediocre defense at two position - 33 years old - yet to show much offensive decline, defensively is losing a step. Smarts - still got em.

Player B's line - 423 AB .313 OBP .359 SLG 73 OPS+ - All while playing mediocre defense at one position - 36 years old - offense has been in steady decline, defense as well. Intangibles - still solid.

Looking at the two of these players, and assuming that they would get roughly the same amount of AB's, which player do you feel would give you the better season in 2009?

( Tek only had 95ABs last season as a RHB, which you would assume is all he would get in a straight platoon)

I don't know what you're studying in school, but it clearly not economics. There's a supply-side issue that comes into this equation. As a test, rattle off all the names of players that are equal or superior to Alex Cora as a utility middle infielder. Now, take a minute to catch your breath, and try the same exercise for Varitek as a catcher.

I think you'll find the supply of Cora+ middle infielders vastly exceeds the supply of Varitek+ catchers. Seeing as the demand for each is about equal (ie, you need 1-2 utility middle infielders per team, and also a couple of catchers), economics dictates that the scarcity of catcher supply will make the market clearing price higher.

Use this in your Econ 101 class - you can thank me later. Oh, and shouldn't you be on the road by now?

[Savin Hillbilly]

For those who blame Boras, please give me a break! Please stop with this blaming Boras BS. Tek is in charge and he is responsible for ALL decisions. Tek screwed himself, not mean old Scott Boras. How about assigning a little "personal responsibility" to Tek on this.

Boras is paid, extremely well, to advise Varitek on his contracts and other business interests. If he advised Varitek to decline arbitration, then I think (and apparently I'm not alone) that he screwed up, big-time, and it will cost Tek hugely.

Of course it's possible that Boras advised Tek to accept arbitration and Tek ignored him. It's hard to know what to think, since we don't know how the conversations went.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Furthermore, I was under the impression that Teixeira and Varitek were a package deal, so Tek's deal with the Yankees will surely be announced any day now.

[DosEquisMatsuzaka]

They offered arbitration presumably knowing Boras clients don't accept.

This type of blanket statement is just plain wrong. Scott Boras represented Kevin Millwood when he accepted arbitration with the Phillies so there is a historical reason to believe that if Boras believes that it is in his clients (and his?) best interest to accept arbitration he will advise or at the very lease not preclude his clients from acceting. The simple truth is that Scott Boras misread the market for Varitek. He believed that Tek would get a multi-year offer even if he was going to cost the team a first round pick and to date he has not.

I suspect that the Sox will sign Tek to a 1 year deal for in the $5MM range and they will also continue to explore the trade market for a long term solution to their catching situation once they do so because they will no longer be in as weak a bargaining position. I also suspect that the Texas duo will be their focus once they have signed Tek because they see them as havig higher ceilings.

[Cuzittt]

Instead of focusing on what Alex Cora got on the FA market... which of course is completely irrelevant, let's look at a contemporary of Varitek who also does not currently have a job... Ivan Rodriguez.

Last year, Rodriguez put up the following numbers: .276/.319/.394 in 114 games.

Varitek, in 131 games, batted .220/.313/.359.

Varitek is 6 months younger than IRod.

Ivan Rodriguez was not offered arbitration, so he is a true free agent. Ivan Rodriguez is considered by the press as a better defensive backstop than Varitek (as evidenced by his 13 gold gloves)... obviously teams may rate them quite differently.

Both are Boras clients.

Neither seems to have any place to land right now... certainly not at what they had been making.

[TheShynessClinic]

I don't know what you're studying in school, but it clearly not economics. There's a supply-side issue that comes into this equation. As a test, rattle off all the names of players that are equal or superior to Alex Cora as a utility middle infielder. Now, take a minute to catch your breath, and try the same exercise for Varitek as a catcher.

I think you'll find the supply of Cora+ middle infielders vastly exceeds the supply of Varitek+ catchers. Seeing as the demand for each is about equal (ie, you need 1-2 utility middle infielders per team, and also a couple of catchers), economics dictates that the scarcity of catcher supply will make the market clearing price higher.

Use this in your Econ 101 class - you can thank me later. Oh, and shouldn't you be on the road by now?

Snarkyness aside.

Supply and Demand, right? The Red Sox already have a catcher on their roster who PECOTA projects to be a better player THIS YEAR. They also have a minor league catcher who PECOTA projects to be slightly worse than Tek, but will be making the major league minimum if he makes the roster.

Josh Bard - (50th Percentile) - .369 OBP - .431 SLG - 3.6 WARP
Jason Varitek - (50th Percentile) - .335 OBP - .405 SLG - 2.7 WARP
George Kottaras - (50th Percentile) - .308 OBP - .382 SLG 1.5 WARP

Considering that Tek hasn't signed yet, and Cora has, the demand for Varitek can't be THAT much larger to warrant a contract more than double that what Cora is getting.

[Myt1]

There are only 10 teams that would have to give up a 1st round pick vs. 17 that would give up a 2nd (and 1 each that would give up a 3rd and 4th). And those 2nd rounders are mostly the equivalent of former 3rd rounders because of the sandwich picks.

Obviously, if the draft pick compensation were the complete deal-killer you think it was, either the Sox would not have offered arb or Varitek would have accepted it.

Only if they both had a perfect understanding of his value, right? Which, given Boras's power to cloud men's minds, is hardly a given, and probably very unlikely.

[SoxFanSince57]

Boras is paid, extremely well, to advise Varitek on his contracts and other business interests. If he advised Varitek to decline arbitration, then I think (and apparently I'm not alone) that he screwed up, big-time, and it will cost Tek hugely.

Of course it's possible that Boras advised Tek to accept arbitration and Tek ignored him. It's hard to know what to think, since we don't know how the conversations went.

"IF" Boras advised Tek to reject arbitration in expectation that Tek would get a bigger payday elsewhere, then Boras made a mistake. And so did Tek. I am not saying that Boras didn't make a mistake in his counsel to Tek, but in the end Tek is the one responsible.

I was responding to posts like this.

Tek has been absolutely screwed over here by Boras' arrogance.

IMO, this mindset is wrong, because it treats Tek like a victim and not someone who made a bad decision. Wake made his decision to sign a team-friendly contract. I would assume that he had similar counsel; namely that he could have got more by becoming a FA. I really don't like the reasoning that presents Tek as an empty vessel. It seems to me that at this point in time that they both screwed up.

[The Long Tater]

. . . or simply because most GMs think he's cooked . . .

Isn't this pretty much the whole ballgame? Is there any evidence that anyone out there is seriously considering employing him with the expectation that he will produce at a significantly improved level? If so, hard to believe.

[someoneanywhere]

Can we really look at it this way?

They offered arbitration presumably knowing Boras clients don't accept. Thus, they wanted the Type A FA compensation. No draft order 16-30 team is going to give up a first rounder to get Varitek, even if they need a catcher. Draft order 1-15 teams are also likely loathe to give up their second rounder, especially for a player who will not help them dramatically.

Do you think they would've been pleased if he had accepted and they were on the hook for $10+ million potentially? That's likely more than they'd offer in a 2-year deal.

Hold on here. I don't think anyone of us can make these assumptions. They didn't know that Tek wouldn't accept. While it is generally true that Boras clients test FA, it is not always true. As I have posted before, the Braves made exactly this assumption with Maddux in 2002. They offered him arb, and he -- astonishingly to them -- took it. The result was that they had to deal Millwood to the Phillies. That the FO was unaware of this recent history and the chance of a repetition is simply unfathomable. They weighed risks and moved accordingly, all the while knowing that Tek might just accept arb and, yes, being prepared to pay him $10 million to have the flexibility of a one-year deal.

That scenario might not have pleased them, but they could and were prepared to live with it. It now appears that what they were prepared to live with -- $10 million for the team captain on a short-term deal -- is now cheaper and perhaps more appealing. And that's on Boras. Boras simply underestimated his ability to develop a market for Tek in light of the new, premium market for young talent and draft picks; and he did so because he only saw one side of the equation: that catching is scarce. While you can't blame him for noting the obvious, it most certainly is on him that he was unable to see, objectively, Tek's decline in value relative to the high value of those picks.

[gcapalbo]

I think John Henry is pretty steamed with Boras over the whole Teixeira thing and will take a very hard line on this negotiation.

Yes that's emotional, and we look at Theo and the FO as having Spock-like calmness and resolve, but in this case I think it will be what happens because they felt played in that last dealing.

Given how we felt about Varitek last year, $1-$2 mil seemed like the sentiment about what he was actually worth (i.e. 'worthless'), but I do expect that he's going to sign with the Sox if there are no other takers for around $5 million, one year deal.

He likely is cooked. I started to worry when he had the knee injury back a few seasons ago.

Best case scenario Tek is onboard for small $ to work with whoever becomes the 'catcher of the future'.

[OCD SS]

I don't get why people think offering Varitek a 2 million dollar contract will hurt clubhouse chemistry. He turned down 10 million dollars.

Part of what Gammons was harping on was Boras misreading the market (another tidbit he let drop is that some of the Sox find Manny's "predicament" pretty funny because supposedly Manny was going around the clubhouse saying things like "Scott says he can get me X.").

As an addendum to the clubhouse chemistry argument, are young stars that disruptive when they get paid peanuts and out perform veterans with multi-million dollar contracts? Should the Sox give Paps a FA deal because he wants one and might be disruptive?

I'm not sure you're really interested in an answer, but it got me interested.

Actually I was thinking about that as well, but in the terms of the projections you linked to. I remember Philly showing a pretty dramatic uptick in Tek's PECOTA projections after he had a good '05 (to the point that his contract didn't look at all bad with that adjustment - of course it came back to earth after '06). When I look at his age I just don't see the likelyhood that we can expect much of a bounce back.

[JimBoSox9]

Best case scenario Tek is onboard for small $ to work with whoever becomes the 'catcher of the future'.

What makes you think that Varitek will be inclined whatsoever to spend time working with the catcher of the future, if he is signed for much lower money then he expects or is used to? A disgruntled player isn't going to spend extra time doing a coach's job, especially at the end of his career. The unstated benefit for not signing a player to the lowest money possible is the presence of a happy player. If the difference between $2 and $5 million makes Varitek think he's hit some proper level of respect, then just give it to him. It makes it more likely that he'll provide those mentoring/clubhouse intangibles that supposedly make him worth that extra value.

[SoxFanSince57]

What makes you think that Varitek will be inclined whatsoever to spend time working with the catcher of the future, if he is signed for much lower money then he expects or is used to? A disgruntled player isn't going to spend extra time doing a coach's job, especially at the end of his career. The unstated benefit for not signing a player to the lowest money possible is the presence of a happy player. If the difference between $2 and $5 million makes Varitek think he's hit some proper level of respect, then just give it to him. It makes it more likely that he'll provide those mentoring/clubhouse intangibles that supposedly make him worth that extra value.

In support of this post, Boras did go on record as saying that Tek fully expected to be a starting catcher for someone and was planning on catching the vast majority of his team's games. While conditions have changed obviously, earlier this off-season Boras/Tek did infer an unwillingness to become a back-up catcher.

Unfortunately, Tek is going to have to eat a lot of "crow" if he signs with the Sox. If he gets his 10M/1-year deal that he would have gotten if he had gone the arbitration route, then it will look to all that the Sox FO gave him a cookie that he wouldn't have gotten otherwise in the FA market. If he signs with the Sox for something in the 5M range then it will be totally apparent that he botched the negotiations.

The only "out" I see for Tek in terms of saving face is if the Sox and Tek agree to a deal that involves a long-term position with the club in some coaching capacity.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 15 January 2009 - 12:06 PM.