29 replies to this topic

[David Laurila]

Tom Tippett, who has been working as a consultant for the past couple of years, has been hired. His title is 'Director, Baseball Information Services.'

[ccsubruce]

Is this the same Tom Tippett who founded Diamond Mind Baseball? Really? What in the world is he going to do for the Sox?

[CJChap]

I'd imagine he would be responsible for creating systems for the front office....

Edited by CJChap, 07 January 2009 - 06:27 PM.

[SoxScout]

“Tom Tippett has been hired as Director, Baseball Information Services. Tippett began consulting with the Red Sox Baseball Operations department in 2003 and has since assisted in a variety of technology and baseball research projects. He was the Founder and President of Diamond Mind, Inc. and developed its baseball simulation software.

We also made a bunch of other hires as well: http://www.bostonher...l-ops-scouting/

[Quintanariffic]

We also made a bunch of other hires as well: http://www.bostonher...l-ops-scouting/

Also from that link:

In the amateur scouting department, the Red Sox hired Tim Hyers as the club’s Area Scout for Georgia. Hyers begins his scouting career after playing parts of four seasons in the major leagues with the San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, and Florida Marlins. As a hitting coach in the Tigers minor league system in 2002, he helped guide Single-A West Michigan to the best regular season record in the Midwest League. More recently, Tim operated and managed sports training facilities in Atlanta.

Whither Rob English? Paging Philly Sox Fan to the red courtesy phone.

[philly sox fan]

That is an interesting one. It's pretty unlikely for a team to have two GA scouts and you very rarely see a guy who has been in one area for two decades move to another.

Seems likely English has moved on. If it's to another team, I'll eventually pick it up when the BA Directory comes out. If he retired or moved across the line to an agency you may never hear.

The possible move from English to a 1st year scout continues the trend of the Sox amateur scouting staff going young.

[Quintanariffic]

That is an interesting one. It's pretty unlikely for a team to have two GA scouts and you very rarely see a guy who has been in one area for two decades move to another.

Seems likely English has moved on. If it's to another team, I'll eventually pick it up when the BA Directory comes out. If he retired or moved across the line to an agency you may never hear.

The possible move from English to a 1st year scout continues the trend of the Sox amateur scouting staff going young.

I suppose it's possible they could have English double up on Florida, in a similar manner to what they did in Texas with Jim Robinson and the guy from OR/WA who's name I can't remember. You want eyeballs where the talent is. That said, English has had some high profile busts (Scott White, Mike Rozier, Mickey Hall, John Egan and, so far, Jason Place) and wasn't a Theo guy (was already on board in 2002). Despite some modest successes in the form of Murton and Moss, it shouldn't be a surprise to see a guy with that sort of hit rate shown the door if that's what is happening here.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 07 January 2009 - 08:57 PM.

[David Laurila]

IEnglish has had some high profile busts (Scott White, Mike Rozier, Mickey Hall, John Egan and, so far, Jason Place)

FWIW: English has drafted exactly none of those players. As a scout, he turned in reports and offered opinions, but what the scouting director did on draft day -- and let's not ignore the opinions of the crosscheckers -- was out of his control.

[gcapalbo]

Is this the same Tom Tippett who founded Diamond Mind Baseball? Really? What in the world is he going to do for the Sox?

Yup, that's him.

I worked at a company in Cambridge with him (non-baseball related) in the early 90's. Great guy.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I have spent some time with Tom, and I agree that he is a top-notch person, with a great analytical mind. He also has been consulting with the Red Sox for several years, so the baseball ops team knows exactly what they are getting.

[philly sox fan]

FWIW: English has drafted exactly none of those players. As a scout, he turned in reports and offered opinions, but what the scouting director did on draft day -- and let's not ignore the opinions of the crosscheckers -- was out of his control.

Ultimate responsibility lies with the scouting director. Or better yet, the GM. And yes, multiple people contribute to the evalaution of high round, high bonus players. But the implication that an area scout may not be the leading advocate for a player in his area - that a team taking many players from his area "was out of his control" - defies logic and common sense, imo.

Of course, we only have indirect knowledge of how scouts think about players, but the signing scouting designation is a pretty good indicator.

[philly sox fan]

I suppose it's possible they could have English double up on Florida, in a similar manner to what they did in Texas with Jim Robinson and the guy from OR/WA who's name I can't remember. You want eyeballs where the talent is.

It's possible. Nomar was signed out of GA Tech by the Sox then Fla scout so there is some overlap of those areas. The Sox did already have a couple scouts in Fla the last few years. So that would take some likely shuffling there too.

[David Laurila]

But the implication that an area scout may not be the leading advocate for a player in his area - that a team taking many players from his area "was out of his control" - defies logic and common sense, imo.

That wasn't being implied at all. Area scouts certainly tout players, but who they sign is only half of the equation. Who they recommend, only to see them bypassed on draft day, is equally important. For instance, when we took Mickey Hall in the third round, our second-round pick that year was Abe Alvarez. Andre Ethier was taken 13 picks after Alvarez, and for all we know, the scout who had Ethier's territory may have been on his knees begging our scouting director to take him. In 2005 we took Craig Hansen two picks in front of Colby Rasmus; in 2006 we took Caleb Clay five picks in front of Chris Tillman. I'm sure we had scouts advocating for Ethier, Rasmus and Tillman -- they were simply outvoted on draft day, and thus don't get credit for being "smart enough" to have signed them.

We, as fans, have little or no idea what the reports turned in by individual scouts look like. The front office does, and they presumably retain or fire members of the scouting staff based on that information. For that reason, I don't think it is fair to "blame" Rob English for the team drafting Mike Rozier in the 12th round if we have no idea who he advocated for in rounds one through 11.

[Quintanariffic]

That wasn't being implied at all. Area scouts certainly tout players, but who they sign is only half of the equation. Who they recommend, only to see them bypassed on draft day, is equally important. For instance, when we took Mickey Hall in the third round, our second-round pick that year was Abe Alvarez. Andre Ethier was taken 13 picks after Alvarez, and for all we know, the scout who had Ethier's territory may have been on his knees begging our scouting director to take him. In 2005 we took Craig Hansen two picks in front of Colby Rasmus; in 2006 we took Caleb Clay five picks in front of Chris Tillman. I'm sure we had scouts advocating for Ethier, Rasmus and Tillman -- they were simply outvoted on draft day, and thus don't get credit for being "smart enough" to have signed them.

We, as fans, have little or no idea what the reports turned in by individual scouts look like. The front office does, and they presumably retain or fire members of the scouting staff based on that information. For that reason, I don't think it is fair to "blame" Rob English for the team drafting Mike Rozier in the 12th round if we have no idea who he advocated for in rounds one through 11.

Your Rozier example is irrelevant, as that was clearly a signability pick. I'm not even sure what you're trying to say with that. Who cares that there were about 20 guys picked before Lars Anderson in 2006? The timing of those picks is based on dramatically different calculation than just straight worth. The most important thing about Rozier is that the Sox received draft reports about his ability and make-up to give a 3rd round talent mid 1st round money. Where do you think they got the majority of those reports from? No points for guessing correctly that it was English. At the end of the day, if English is submitting reports about Scott White saying "OMG!!!111. He's the best playaha evah!!!!111", that's going to impact what the Sox think of that player b/c English is supposed to know him best. The fact that Rozier and Egan have busted in some part due to make-up is especially troubling, in light of the fact that English would have been uniquely qualified with respect to getting to know these kids. You can have cross-checkers come in and help assess talent level. You can't really have them come in and help assess a kid's head - that's the area scout's most important job.

The fact remains that, to an almost unparalelled degree, the Sox consistently drafted high round (or high bonus - they are the same thing) talent out of English's scouting region and have received very little in the way of return. Now, it's pretty well known that the draft is close to a crap shoot but, as determined by bonuses, the Sox drafted 7 1st, 2nd or 3rd round picks from English's scouting area from 2002-2006. This is out of a total number of 27 such picks (again, as judged by bonuses, not round selected). So English was successful in getting the Sox to use 26% of their selections on guys in his area, when that is well out of line with the avg amount of high round talent coming from the GA/SC area. They are receiving strong recommendations on these guys, and of those seven, we've got 4 clear HS busts (Rozier, White, Hall, Egan), one fringe C 4th OF (Murton), one HS OF who has a good chance of busting (Place), and one good prospect (Reddick). That doesn't seem like a very good return for a large investment in picks. It seems like the Sox had wisened up a bit in the last two years, with only Tyler Wilson and perhaps Hunter Strickland jumping out at me as prominent picks from English's region. But your entire contention would seem to absolve scouts of any responsibility for the guys they recommend, and that takes a level cognitive dissonance that is fairly stunning.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 08 January 2009 - 11:00 AM.

[MattCrashDavis]

Mixed feelings here. One of the things I look forward to before the start of the season is checking the Diamond Mind projections, because anecdotally they always seemed pretty accurate and interesting (no hype, just simulations). But I suppose it's good that they have his talent in-house. But who is going to tell me how to place idiotic longshot MLB futures bets in March?

[David Laurila]

But your entire contention would seem to absolve scouts of any responsibility for the guys they recommend

Far from. My contention is that scouts are held accountable for what they put in their reports, whether said players are drafted or not. If Joe Scout recommends Albert Pujols, Mike Piazza and Donny Sadler, and his scouting director passes on Pujols and Piazza, he is no less of a scout because he only signed Sadler. My point is that accurately assessing a scout's performance is difficult without all of the pertinent information, which is something we don't have.

[Quintanariffic]

Far from. My contention is that scouts are held accountable for what they put in their reports, whether said players are drafted or not. If Joe Scout recommends Albert Pujols, Mike Piazza and Donny Sadler, and his scouting director passes on Pujols and Piazza, he is no less of a scout because he only signed Sadler. My point is that accurately assessing a scout's performance is difficult without all of the pertinent information, which is something we don't have.

I don't disagree with that at all. However, the one piece of information we do have is that the high bonus picks from English's area have been stinkers, by and large. Assuming that the process by which the Sox FO filters scouting information is generally consistent (ie. they don't play favorites based on personality or friendships etc.. - that's definitely not their MO), then one has to conclude that English hasn't been a smashing success in his tenure with the Sox.

[diehard24]

I don't disagree with that at all. However, the one piece of information we do have is that the high bonus picks from English's area have been stinkers, by and large. Assuming that the process by which the Sox FO filters scouting information is generally consistent (ie. they don't play favorites based on personality or friendships etc.. - that's definitely not their MO), then one has to conclude that English hasn't been a smashing success in his tenure with the Sox.

Q, when they shell out the kind of money they have for guys like Rozier, Place, etc. it's not soley English's reports that they base the pick on, nor if they're going to sign him. They'll have a crosschecker or two go to see them, and, in many cases, multiple front-office guys will go, too, including McLeod, Baird, and Cherington.

It does start with a report from the area scout, that's their job. But even there, you're talking about a guy who's covering one, small geographic area. They put together a list of guys they think are good, assess their abilities, and try to get them some attention if they think they're worthy of it.

All that said, it's also their jobs to put a dollar sign on a given prospect, and their recommendation is certainly going to have an impact because they've seen him the most. So I'm not trying to absolve anyone here, either. But at the end of the day, the various area scouts try to sound the horn on the best kids in their area, and bubble that up through to the top. There's plenty of due diligence done thereafter before a kid gets selected, particularly in a higher round.

[Quintanariffic]

Q, when they shell out the kind of money they have for guys like Rozier, Place, etc. it's not soley English's reports that they base the pick on, nor if they're going to sign him. They'll have a crosschecker or two go to see them, and, in many cases, multiple front-office guys will go, too, including McLeod, Baird, and Cherington.

It does start with a report from the area scout, that's their job. But even there, you're talking about a guy who's covering one, small geographic area. They put together a list of guys they think are good, assess their abilities, and try to get them some attention if they think they're worthy of it.

All that said, it's also their jobs to put a dollar sign on a given prospect, and their recommendation is certainly going to have an impact because they've seen him the most. So I'm not trying to absolve anyone here, either. But at the end of the day, the various area scouts try to sound the horn on the best kids in their area, and bubble that up through to the top. There's plenty of due diligence done thereafter before a kid gets selected, particularly in a higher round.

I don't disagree with that at all. What I'm saying is that we have twp pieces of information:

1) The Sox have drafted an inordinately high % of high-bonus players from English's scouting area relative to the draft as a whole.

2) Those players have, by and large, been busts or underwhelming.

The first piece of information seems to indicate that English is, for whatever reason, more successful in getting his guys selected than other scouts. I can only conclude that he is submitting glowing reports on their abilities and make-up that are out of line withthe underlying talent level and drive. If cross-checkers look at players from all over, presumably there don't have any bias for one set of players or another. Moreover, they don't have a chance to determine a kid's make-up - only the area scout does, or atleast he has the best handle on it by far.

The second piece of information tells us that whatever reports he submitted were ultiamtely innacurate. Not that he's alone in this regard - the vast majority of draft picks are busts. But if I'm going to have a single guy's area account for 27% of my high bonus choices over a five year period, I should damn well be sure it's because he has proven over the course of time that he's got an eye for talent that translates to the high minors and the majors. Had the number of English big bonus picks been consistent with the % of suck picks coming out of GA and SC (my guess is 10-15% at most), this wouldn't be as big of an issue - but there was always the annual English big bonus pick or two.

[diehard24]

I don't disagree with that at all. What I'm saying is that we have twp pieces of information:

1) The Sox have drafted an inordinately high % of high-bonus players from English's scouting area relative to the draft as a whole.

2) Those players have, by and large, been busts or underwhelming.

The first piece of information seems to indicate that English is, for whatever reason, more successful in getting his guys selected than other scouts. I can only conclude that he is submitting glowing reports on their abilities and make-up that are out of line withthe underlying talent level and drive. If cross-checkers look at players from all over, presumably there don't have any bias for one set of players or another. Moreover, they don't have a chance to determine a kid's make-up - only the area scout does, or atleast he has the best handle on it by far.

The second piece of information tells us that whatever reports he submitted were ultiamtely innacurate. Not that he's alone in this regard - the vast majority of draft picks are busts. But if I'm going to have a single guy's area account for 27% of my high bonus choices over a five year period, I should damn well be sure it's because he has proven over the course of time that he's got an eye for talent that translates to the high minors and the majors. Had the number of English big bonus picks been consistent with the % of suck picks coming out of GA and SC (my guess is 10-15% at most), this wouldn't be as big of an issue - but there was always the annual English big bonus pick or two.

What I was trying to make clear is that area scouts don't hound the front office and beg him to take their kids over the kids around the country, whom they have not seen. When it comes to top picks in particular, it's not about area scouts lobbying over others to get their guy selected. He gets a kid noticed, then others go to see them, then the org gets a consensus and puts him up on a board. Collectively, they deemed English's guys to be the right guys to select at a given time. English doesn't have any special rhetorical skills that made the Sox draft these guys, then pay them big bucks.

[Quintanariffic]

What I was trying to make clear is that area scouts don't hound the front office and beg him to take their kids over the kids around the country, whom they have not seen. When it comes to top picks in particular, it's not about area scouts lobbying over others to get their guy selected. He gets a kid noticed, then others go to see them, then the org gets a consensus and puts him up on a board. Collectively, they deemed English's guys to be the right guys to select at a given time. English doesn't have any special rhetorical skills that made the Sox draft these guys, then pay them big bucks.

No one is saying the guy is 100% culpable. But there are good scouts and there are bad scouts. Nothing in English's tenure with the Sox indicates that he was one of the former when he worked for them his previous work for the Braves notwithstanding. Area scouts are supposed to have the best read on a kid's make up. That Egan (drugs, general stupidity, retired early) and Rozier (out of shape) appeared not to have it in this category says a lot to me.

If English is, in fact, our of the organization, it seems that the Sox may share in this viewpoint to a certain degree.

[diehard24]

No one is saying the guy is 100% culpable. But there are good scouts and there are bad scouts. Nothing in English's tenure with the Sox indicates that he was one of the former when he worked for them his previous work for the Braves notwithstanding. Area scouts are supposed to have the best read on a kid's make up. That Egan (drugs, general stupidity, retired early) and Rozier (out of shape) appeared not to have it in this category says a lot to me.

If English is, in fact, our of the organization, it seems that the Sox may share in this viewpoint to a certain degree.

Fair enough on Egan and Rozier. Both, with Scott Blue, are a bit surprising given the org's focus on character.

[Quintanariffic]

Fair enough on Egan and Rozier. Both, with Scott Blue, are a bit surprising given the org's focus on character.

Also, I was just reading an interesting interview on Bowden by Alex Speier at weei.com and he mentioned how Eddie Haas had written an 8 page manifesto containing an impassioned plea to draft Bowden. Scouts may have more influence than one would think.

[philly sox fan]

Also, I was just reading an interesting interview on Bowden by Alex Speier at weei.com and he mentioned how Eddie Haas had written an 8 page manifesto containing an impassioned plea to draft Bowden. Scouts may have more influence than one would think.

Probably went with the hole dug a hole for mom story and everything.

Should be Danny Haas. Eddie Haas - I think Danny's father - was supposedly the evil, mystery scout that Duquette supposedly listened to above all the other Sox amateur scouts.

No clue what Eddie Haas did in his time with the Sox, but one kid signed Bowden and presumably does a good job as a crosschecker and another one Matt, who is now with the DBacks, signed Youkilis. So net-net, the Haas' were pretty damn good to the Sox.

[Quintanariffic]

Probably went with the hole dug a hole for mom story and everything.

Paving the driveway for Mom, but yeah.

[diehard24]

Also, I was just reading an interesting interview on Bowden by Alex Speier at weei.com and he mentioned how Eddie Haas had written an 8 page manifesto containing an impassioned plea to draft Bowden. Scouts may have more influence than one would think.

Surely it was effective. But I think the point of its mention in Alex's story is that it's not standard.

[Worst Trade Evah]

Bill James moved back to Kansas last Fall. At the time there was talk about him still being involved, just remotely. Is he still? I wonder if they reconsidered this and decided on some serious analytic work in-house. I can see why at this point getting someone else to carry on what James started makes sense, but I really loved having James working for the Sox. All through the early 80s and on, that was my fantasy: that the Sox would get smart and hire James, or someone just like him.

Tippett is really great, and I think he'll help the Sox. But I still don't understand why doesn't someone throw $1,000,000 at Tango. As far as I can see, he's pretty much the best analyst around, and I'd bet his work to the Sox long-term would be worth a quarter of a win a year. Is Tango some finance whiz who doesn't need that $1,000,000? High-level analysis seems tremendously valuable to me, with wins costing what they do, and I don't think random-guy-with-a-BP-subscription makes up the difference.

Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 09 January 2009 - 10:06 AM.

[Cuzittt]

But I still don't understand why doesn't someone throw $1,000,000 at Tango. As far as I can see, he's pretty much the best analyst around, and I'd bet his work to the Sox long-term would be worth a quarter of a win a year. Is Tango some finance whiz who doesn't need that $1,000,000? High-level analysis seems tremendously valuable to me, with wins costing what they do, and I don't think random-guy-with-a-BP-subscription makes up the difference.

Tom Tango - Seattle Mariners consultant

[Tangotiger]

Tom Tango - Seattle Mariners consultant

Part-time consultant.

I appreciate the kind words, but Tom Tippett is one of the best, if not the best, saberist around.

[Eric Van]

Bill James moved back to Kansas last Fall. At the time there was talk about him still being involved, just remotely. Is he still? I wonder if they reconsidered this and decided on some serious analytic work in-house. I can see why at this point getting someone else to carry on what James started makes sense, but I really loved having James working for the Sox. All through the early 80s and on, that was my fantasy: that the Sox would get smart and hire James, or someone just like him.

Tom Tippett's been doing valuable work as a consultant for six years, writing software to handle information and, I'm sure, giving sabermetric advice. He's gotten a well-earned promotion to a Cool Job Title and a payroll position with benefits. He may do somewhat more work for the team than when he got a W-2, but I'm guessing there won't be any substantial change in his contribution. Certainly this has nothing to do with Bill James.

Tippett is really great, and I think he'll help the Sox. But I still don't understand why doesn't someone throw $1,000,000 at Tango. As far as I can see, he's pretty much the best analyst around, and I'd bet his work to the Sox long-term would be worth a quarter of a win a year. Is Tango some finance whiz who doesn't need that $1,000,000? High-level analysis seems tremendously valuable to me, with wins costing what they do, and I don't think random-guy-with-a-BP-subscription makes up the difference.

The going rate for part-time sabermetric consultants is a bit less than that.

Baseball FO people are not paid the way players are, in terms of added win value as it translates to dollars. In fact, you can get a terrific round of laughter from a room full of them when you point out that each one of them is worth millions by that logic. Instead, it's a supply and demand thing: there are an awful a lot of people who want these jobs, and (below the level of GM) only narrow degrees of separation in terms of excellence.

As good as Tom is, as good as I am, as good as MGL is, none of us have proven that we're vastly better than whoever comprises the next rank of analysts, the guys who are on the verge of getting hired as consultants. And there are an awful lot of very good analysts in that next, knocking-at-the-door tier! That holds down the salary scale for almost everyone. The only person I know of who has demonstrated he's in a different class than the rest of us, and hence gets paid commensurately, is of course BJ himself. (There may of course be others who are flying under the radar, coming up with groundbreaking, proprietary stuff after being hired and hence earning more than the industry norm.)