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2008 Rule 5 Draft


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#1 Hairps

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:24 AM

The 2008 Rule 5 Draft takes place next Thursday at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.

Here's a quick primer, courtesy of the SoSH wiki:

Quote

Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft was created as a way to prevent teams from hoarding minor league talent. Without the Rule 5 draft, teams could hold minor leaguers in their farm system indefinitely, where that player may have a legitimate shot of making the big club with a different organization.

Under the Rule, teams must protect (by adding them to the 40 man roster) minor league players within three or four years of signing them. Three years for players who are 19 on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract. Four years for players who are 18 at the same time. If a team does not add a player to the 40 man roster within the prescribed time period, that player can be drafted by another team.

There is a catch however. In order to discourage teams from drafting minor leaguers arbitrarily, the drafting team must keep that player on their major league roster for one complete season. If the drafting team does not meet this requirement, then the player must be offered back to their original team at one half of the $50,000 drafting price. Because the minor league players selected in the Rule 5 draft are usually marginal prospects or very raw, relatively few players are selected through the Rule 5 draft each year.

Minor League Phases

There are also two minor league phases to the Rule 5 draft: the AAA and AA phase. In addition to setting a 40-man roster, organizations are required to submit a AAA and AA roster of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Note that these rosters are larger than regular-season AAA and AA rosters and their composition during this phase is determined by the organizations evaluation of a player, not the player's current level; the organization will place players they value more highly on the AAA roster.

After the Major League phase, the AAA phase takes place, in which other organizations can pluck players on other teams' AA rosters. During the AA phase, organizations can take Rule 5-eligible players on neither roster. The minor league Rule 5 draft is primarily a roster-filling exercise and players taken rarely reach the major leagues, not to mention establish themselves as big-league players. Unlike the Major League phase, players drafted in the AAA phase are not required to play at AAA, nor are AA draftees required to play in AA. It costs $12,000 to select a player in the AAA phase and $4,000 in the AA phase.
Here's a list of the Sox' players eligible for this year's draft, courtesy of SoxProspects:

Quote

Juan Apodaca, Bubba Bell, Zach Borowiak, Jose Capellan, Robert Coello, Jeff Corsalettii, Sean Danielson,
Andrew Dobies, William Durazo*, Zak Farkes, Kyle Fernandes, Javier Garcia, Rafael Gil, Matt Goodson,
Mickey Hall, Tommy Hottovy, Jimmy James, Mike James, Jay Johnson, Chris Jones, TJ Large, Will Latimer,
Blake Maxwell, Paul McAnulty, Marcus McBeth, Dan Miceli*, Jeff Natale, John Otness, Ryan Phillips*,
Bryan Pritz, Mike Rozier, Ryan Schroyer*, Luis Segovia, Roberto Sosa*, Iggy Suarez, Billy Traber,
Jose Vaquedano, Beau Vaughn, Gil Velazquez, Yahmed Yema, Armando Zerpa

*Restricted List

Here's a list of Sox' Theo Era Rule 5 selections, also courtesy of SoxProspects:

Quote

2007

Passed

2006

11) Nick Debarr (from TB) (returned)

2005

10) Jamie Vermilyea (from Tor) (returned)
AAA-19) Victor Ramos (from ChC)
AAA-32) Jason Richardson (from Atl)
AAA-44) David Bacani (from NYM)

2004

11) Adam Stern (from Atl)
AAA-21) Tony Granadillo (from StL)
AA-6) Steve Langone (from LAD)

2003

15) Lenny DiNardo (from NYM)
19) Colter Bean (from NYY) (returned)

2002

R1) Javier Lopez (from Ariz) (traded)
R2) Matt White (from Cle) (returned)
R2) Adrian Brown (from Pit) (outrighted)


#2 Hairps

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:26 AM

Those on the internet who obsess over fringy minor leaguers are already aflutter with players to keep an eye on:

Baseball Analysts:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/..._2008_draft.php
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/...2008_rule_5.php

Baseball Think Factory:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/...n/rule_5_draft/

ussmariner:

http://ussmariner.co...al-rule-5-kids/

I'm sure there are more. My BA subscription has expired, but I'm pretty sure they have one up, as well.

#3 Hairps

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:41 AM

Though the Sox bullpen seems pretty full right now, I dove into the eligible Rule 5 pitchers and poked around FanGraphs and MinorLeagueSplits.com for pitchers whose raw numbers suggest they might warrant a closer look. There was no clear rule of thumb in selecting these guys, other than the usual high K/9, solid K/BB, GB%s over 50%, or any combination of those. Also, I tried to jot down guys who may have been former hot shot prospects, or players whom other baseball team sites I frequent seemed to be worried about losing in the draft:

LHP

Fernando Abad (HOU)
Alberto Castillo-Betancourt (BAL)
Daniel Davidson (LAA)
Eugene Espineli (SEA)
Edgar Estanga (TOR)
Chuck Lofgren (CLE)
Jay Marshall (OAK)
Jose Ortegano (ATL)
Ian Ostlund (STL)
Edgar Osuna (ATL)
Ryan Rodriguez (BAL)
Jack Spradlin (WAS)
Donald Veal (CHC)
Joe Wice (TOR)


Of the above left-handed pitchers, BAL's Alberto Castillo-Betancourt stood out as someone that might make a good fit.

Logging 26 innings in AAA, he had a K/BB over 4, K/9 right about at 9, and while his GB% sat at 41%, his GB% vs. LHH stood at a solid 61%.

He was up in Baltimore for another 26 IP last year, and his numbers regressed as you might expect: K/BB of 23/10, K/9 around 8, and his overall GB% sat at 44% and his Go/AO vs. LHH was 1.22.

Next season, MARCEL projects him out to a 4.46 FIP over 38 MLB innings pitched.

Edited by Hairps, 03 December 2008 - 10:42 AM.


#4 Bowlerman9


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:42 AM

According to one web site, Kei Igawa is available in the Rule 5. Is this correct? Not that anyone would take him, but what rule allows him to be eligible?

#5 Hairps

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:44 AM

View PostBowlerman9, on Dec 3 2008, 10:42 AM, said:

According to one web site, Kei Igawa is available in the Rule 5. Is this correct? Not that anyone would take him, but what rule allows him to be eligible?
Igawa is not eligible/available.

Edited by Hairps, 03 December 2008 - 10:44 AM.


#6 TheYaz67

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 10:48 AM

View PostBowlerman9, on Dec 3 2008, 10:42 AM, said:

According to one web site, Kei Igawa is available in the Rule 5. Is this correct? Not that anyone would take him, but what rule allows him to be eligible?

That doesn't make much sense, since despite not being on the 40 man roster for the Yanks right now, he only has 2 years service, correct?

#7 Bowlerman9


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 11:06 AM

View PostHairps, on Dec 3 2008, 10:44 AM, said:

Igawa is not eligible/available.

Didnt think so - thank you.

#8 TomRicardo


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 11:07 AM

View PostTheYaz67, on Dec 3 2008, 10:48 AM, said:

That doesn't make much sense, since despite not being on the 40 man roster for the Yanks right now, he only has 2 years service, correct?

Well he wasn't signed as a free agent or drafted, he was posted. There is nothing in the rules about a posted player who isn't on the 40 man roster. Igawa's case is beyond strange. I can't think of a similar incident.

#9 Hairps

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 11:07 AM

Same list of interest as above, for RHP:

Greg Aquino (CLE)
Greg Atencio (KCR)
Joe Bateman (MIL)
Randor Bierd (BAL)
Richard Brooks (CHW)
Rocky Cherry (BAL)
J. Brent Cox (NYY)
Miseal DeJesus (CIN)
Natividad Dilone (SEA)
Ramon Geronimo (CIN)
Justin Hedrick (SFG)
Alan Horne (NYY)
Tim Lahey (MIN)
Santo Luis (CHW)
Mike MacDougal (CHW)
Roque Mercedes
Scott Mitchinson (OAK)
Eduardo Morlan (TBR)
Randy Newsom (CLE)
Chris Nicoll (KCR)
Darren O'Day (LAA)
Daigoro Rongon (LAD)
Stephen Schmoll (WAS)
Matt Torra (ARZ)
Carlos Torres (CHW)
Jason Urquidez (ARZ)
Sean Walker (HOU)
Zach Ward (MIN)
Kevin Whelan (NYY)
Kyle Wright (ARZ)


There are a few more RHPs worth considering.

I'll admit I've got a soft spot for side-arming relievers who induce groundballs. So LAA's Darren O'Day jumped out at me immediately.

EDIT: LATE-BREAKING MEDICAL NEWS!!! O'Day has a torn labrum. Could miss the 2009 season.


While (sadly) not a side-armer, Baltimore's Randor Bierd is another interesting guy.

After dominating AA in the Tigers' organization, Bierd was taken by BAL in last year's Rule 5 Draft. He was stashed on the DL, then rocketed his way through the lower levels of BAL's minor league system before joining the big club for over 36 innings.

The guys at 60ft6in have a pretty entertaining scouting report on Bierd:

Quote

Bierd is a weird dude. He throws a strange sinking fastball and sliders that look like they're hanging. His velocity leaves much to be desired, but batters look extremely confused when facing him.

*fastball(83-88), slider(79-82)
http://www.60ft6in.com/Orioles.html

Next season, MARCEL projects him out to a 4.25 FIP over 43 MLB innings pitched.


Let us now call this...

The OFFICIAL Yankees Rule 5 Eligible Pitchers Post

Alan Horne has battled injuries and the pressure of becoming the annointed 5th member of The Royal Flush and now finds himself eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. He had solid scouting reports as recently as last year. My guess is he could be easily stashed on the phantom DL for the better part of next year, do some work as a mop-up guy, and be worth occupying a roster spot all season in hopes that he can put it all together down the line.

J. Brent Cox was hyped as the next Huston Street. So, there's that.

Kevin Whelan. Yankees. Pitching. Prospect. Hyped. Why?

Edited by Hairps, 04 December 2008 - 05:34 PM.


#10 maufman


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 11:23 AM

View PostHairps, on Dec 3 2008, 10:41 AM, said:

Of the above left-handed pitchers, BAL's Alberto Castillo-Betancourt stood out as someone that might make a good fit.
Cuban-born Castillo-Betancourt is 33, and according to B-R, prior to last year he hadn't pitched in the minors since 1998. According to Wikipedia, he pitched in Mexico and in the independent Atlantic League during that time. This site, however, claims Castillo played first base in the California League in 2001, posting a 274/328/415 line in 94 games. Castillo also played first base in the Atlantic League in 2000.

Here's what I was able to dig up on his Atlantic League tenure (as a pitcher):

2007: 35 IP, 24 H, 7 BB, 31 K, 2 HR, 2.31 ERA
2006: 59 IP, 74 H, 28 BB, 32 K, 6 HR, 5.31 ERA
2003: 115 IP, 112 H, 49 BB, 98 K, 13 HR, 4.40 ERA

And from the Mexican League:

2004: 32 IP, 34 H, 27 BB, 18 K, 4.22 ERA

It doesn't appear Castillo played anywhere in 2005.

Does anyone know more about his back-story?

#11 ToxicSmed


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 01:42 PM

View PostTomRicardo, on Dec 3 2008, 11:07 AM, said:

Well he wasn't signed as a free agent or drafted, he was posted. There is nothing in the rules about a posted player who isn't on the 40 man roster. Igawa's case is beyond strange. I can't think of a similar incident.
A player who was signed after being posted is then treated as though he was signed as an international free agent, I believe.

#12 DanoooME

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 02:35 PM

Donald Veal jumped off the list at me and might be an interesting low-level selection. He's had a rough two years, but lefties that throw 90+ don't exactly grow on trees. He was one of the Cubs' top prospects back in '06. He's still only 24. Maybe there's something mechanical that can be fixed since the major issue seems to be control (5.02 BB/9).

#13 Hairps

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 03:20 PM

Corsi's links in another thread, signaling the Sox' potential interest in Jay Payton, worried me enough to lead me to scrounge around the Rule 5 eligible dumpster looking for a better, freely-available alternative.

And it's a bit of a counter-intuitive choice.

Ryan Langerhans - OF - WAS

Yes, he bats left-handed, but lets take a back-of-the-envelope look at how he might fare against LHP relative to Jay Payton next year.

Langerhans' splits vs. LHP are a pretty small sample, and weird ones at that [career OPS split that's 75 points higher than his splits vs. RHP (.776 vs. .701)]. So, let's just throw out that approach, and use a rule of thumb that a traditional split vs. a same-handed pitcher is 90% of a batters' split against an opposite-handed pitcher. So, for examlpe, if a LHH has a wOBA of .320 vs. RHPs, his wOBA vs. LHPs will be 90% of that, or .288.

Just to come clean, I have no idea where I picked that rule of thumb up, but it's always seemed reasonable to me. So there you go. Avoid the following if it doesn't seem right to you.

Anywho, using the above method, let's look at the projections for Langerhans & Payton's offensive seasons next year:

Payton: .300 wOBA (.301 from Bill James and .295 from MARCEL)
Langerhans: ~.327 wOBA (.343 from Bill James and .310 from MARCEL)

So, taking those and "projecting" splits using the (potentially wrong!) 90% rule of thumb from above...

Payton projected wOBA vs. LHP: .315
Langerhans projected wOBA vs. LHP: .311

Now, converting those to runs, and further assuming the same number of PAs next season vs. LHPs, Langerhans instead of Payton would cost the Sox around a run.

But, by many accounts, Langerhans plays excellent defense. Sean Smith projects Langerhans' defense at +14 runs at corner OF and +9 runs in CF. He projects Payton's defense at +4 at corner OF and -4 in CF.

Defensively, Langerhans is +10 runs at a corner and +13 runs in CF, relative to Payton.

Alas, using this q&d approach, playing only against LHP (which everyone seems to think should be a priority in acquiring a "fourth" outfielder...

In corner OF: Langerhans projects to be +9 runs over Payton. (or +.9 wins)
In center field: Langerhans projects to be +12 runs over Payton. (or +1.2 wins)

Which is a long way of saying I hope the Sox consider taking Ryan Langerhans in next week's Rule 5 Draft.

Edited by Hairps, 03 December 2008 - 03:23 PM.


#14 bd11

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 03:30 PM

View PostHairps, on Dec 3 2008, 11:07 AM, said:

Same list of interest as above, for RHP:


Rocky Cherry (BAL)


Given the live arm and strikeout numbers in the minors this is a bit surprising. Is he healthy?

#15 opes


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 04:56 PM

View Postbd11, on Dec 3 2008, 01:30 PM, said:

Given the live arm and strikeout numbers in the minors this is a bit surprising. Is he healthy?


Healthy enough we should keep hitting bombs off him. The guys horrible.

#16 PedroSpecialK


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Posted 03 December 2008 - 05:08 PM

Horne and Veal are two names that immediately jump out at me. Horne had a sub-3 ERA in the Eastern League a couple years ago IIRC (though it was at age 23-24) and was a legitimate prospect. Veal still has the velocity as someone mentioned before - I'd love to take a flier on him.

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 03 December 2008 - 05:08 PM.


#17 LondonSox

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Posted 03 December 2008 - 05:53 PM

I'm worried about losing Bubba Bell. Well not worried but I think it could happen and that would dissapoint/annoy me mildly

As for pick ups Morlan of the Rays 127ks in 106 IP in 2006 A ball. 92 k in 65.2 IP in A+ in 07. In his disappointing year at the Rays 45k in 47 IP in AA in 2008. 3:1 K/BB at all stages (a lot better at times).

I'd be surprised if someone didn't take Horne as well from the Yanks.

#18 Hairps

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Posted 04 December 2008 - 10:01 PM

View PostHairps, on Dec 3 2008, 11:07 AM, said:

Same list of interest as above, for RHP:

Randor Bierd (BAL)

There are a few more RHPs worth considering.

While (sadly) not a side-armer, Baltimore's Randor Bierd is another interesting guy.

After dominating AA in the Tigers' organization, Bierd was taken by BAL in last year's Rule 5 Draft. He was stashed on the DL, then rocketed his way through the lower levels of BAL's minor league system before joining the big club for over 36 innings.

The guys at 60ft6in have a pretty entertaining scouting report on Bierd:
http://www.60ft6in.com/Orioles.html

Next season, MARCEL projects him out to a 4.25 FIP over 43 MLB innings pitched.
Am I bored? Yes.
Have I been drinking too much cough syrup? Maybe.
Do I want to post a little bit more about Randor Bierd? You're goddamn right I do.

Yesterday, the Giants signed Bobby Howry to a one-year $2.75MM deal, with some type of incentive clause. This led Dave Cameron, whose writing I admire, to applaud how cheaply Sabean was able to acquire wins cheaply through the free agent market.

Let's take a similar approach to a potential pick-up of Randor Bierd.

POP QUIZ

Q: Better 2008 Rule 5-eligible pitcher's name for a James Bond villian...Randor Bierd or Daigoro Rongon?

A: Octopussy.

Now, Marcel projects Bierd at 4.25 FIP over 43 MLB innings pitched next year. Let's just say that that amount of FIPiness is used to replace last year's performance of, say, Mike Timlin (all due respect, true battler, great guy, love to go bow-hunting with you, never have to buy a beer in New England again, etc., etc...). Timlin last season put up a FIP of 5.48 over 49.3 IPs.

So... Bierd at 4.25 FIP in 43 IPs. Timlin at 5.48 FIP in 49.3 IPs. I'll take license to stretch out Bierd's projection to 49.3 IPs, and penalize him another run just to make things easier.

Doing so means Bierd saves the Sox about 6 runs over the course of a season, or .6 wins. And if you close your eyes and believe just enough, you can imagine a world where a better than league average reliever like Bierd (who was now bumped up to a 4.34 FIP over 49.3 IPs due to the one run penalty discussed up above), might engender Tito's confidence enough convince him to place Bierd in higher leverage situations than Timlin was put in, which could scrape together another 4/10 of a win or so. That would get Bierd to +1 win over Timlin.

Truth be told, that's a lot of fuzzy math. And frankly I have no clue who Randor Bierd is, or if he's a guy whom the Sox should pick. But I hope it goes to illustrate the point that there's a ton of value to be mined in Rule 5 (like Brad Ziegler last year, or Josh Hamilton the year before), for which a team pays next to nothing other than renting out a MLB roster spot and multiple trips to the phantom DL for an entire year.

Maybe the Sox front office just isn't good at identifying the talent available in Rule 5. If so, that's cool. And even understandable. They're damn good at a whole lot of other things, and in my opinion are the best in the game. But if it's just the same excuse from Theo of last year where the trip to Japan meant they didn't have enough time to look at Rule 5, that's just not good enough.





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