98 replies to this topic

[bd11]

A source close to the team who I trust told me yesterday that Wake's shoulder has really been bothering him and he is seriously contemplating retirement. The source has been wrong on rare occasions but is usually dead on. Has anyone else heard anything about this?

Obviously losing Wake would be a big blow considering his salary and undeniable usefulness as a fifth starter. However if Wake retires it might make the Sox more of a player in the free agent market and would free up Wake's 4-5m per year in salary. Obviously it would be in the team's best interests to keep this info quiet for as long as possible so free agents and potential trade partners would not feel as though they could exploit this hole in the rotation. It also could make it less likely that the Sox would peddle Bowden or Buchholz for one of the Texas 3. Not trading for one of the Texas 3 could result in Tek becoming a tad more attractive to the FO. If this report is true there could be a ton of ramifications as I just illustrated.

[mabrowndog]

Unlike most rumors that get floated around here, this is one I'm inclined to believe. It's certainly not far-fetched considering Tim's age and recent history. Wake's had shoulder problems each of the last two seasons -- his August DL stint this year, and the persistent issue that plagued him last year right through the postseason.

Due to recurring shoulder problems, Wakefield said he spoke with Red Sox management and the club’s medical staff, and the decision was made to shut it down. It is believed that he will not need off-season surgery, but he will undergo extensive testing at season’s end, including an arthrogram MRI where dye is injected into the shoulder. It’s not known at this point whether it’s a rotator cuff issue or a torn labrum.

According to Wakefield, the injury began with inflammation in his posterior shoulder and back.

If there's any truth to it, I just hope an internal decision is made sooner rather than later. The most important point bd11 brought up, IMO, is how this would affect Boston's pursuit of another free agent pitcher.

Edited by mabrowndog, 15 November 2008 - 07:26 PM.

[Rasputin]

He needs to win 29 more games before he retires so obviously this rumor is bunk.

[E5 Yaz]

He needs to win 29 more games before he retires so obviously this rumor is bunk.

You expect him to hold out 5 more years?

I wouldn't be surprised at all if it comes out that the picking up of the option was done not just to cover their bases, but to make the Sox seem less needy for an additional starter.

[Rasputin]

You expect him to hold out 5 more years?

Five? I think six wins a year is a bit of an underestimation.

Obviously he needs to do whatever he needs to do. I wouldn't be doing my job if it caused me tons of pain.

Also, I wonder about the Mirabelli thing.

[E5 Yaz]

Five? I think six wins a year is a bit of an underestimation.

The original statement merited the response.

[koufax32]

Five? I think six wins a year is a bit of an underestimation.

Obviously he needs to do whatever he needs to do. I wouldn't be doing my job if it caused me tons of pain.

Also, I wonder about the Mirabelli thing.

Eh?

I sincerely hope this rumor isn't accuarate. If so it would explain the persistent talk of Boston's interest in Derek Lowe. Ordinarily the terms he's seeking would put this FO off...unless they're more desparate than they appear.

[mabrowndog]

I sincerely hope this rumor isn't accuarate. If so it would explain the persistent talk of Boston's interest in Derek Lowe. Ordinarily the terms he's seeking would put this FO off...unless they're more desparate than they appear.

I think their interest in Lowe was validated even with a healthy Wakefield returning in 2009. Are you suggesting that the front office was going to rest on their laurels simply because Tim's option was picked up, and that they were satisfied with their depth at the #4 and #5 slots? Not a chance.

If this rumor is true, then it puts the Sox squarely in the hunt for TWO upper-tier starting pitchers, not just one.

Edited by mabrowndog, 15 November 2008 - 08:18 PM.

[koufax32]

I think their interest in Lowe was validated even with a healthy Wakefield returning in 2009. Are you suggesting that the front office was going to rest on their laurels simply because Tim's option was picked up, and that they were satisfied with their depth at the #4 and #5 slots? Not a chance.

If this rumor is true, then it puts the Sox squarely in the hunt for TWO upper-tier starting pitchers, not just one.

No, but there would not be a need for a pitcher in Lowe's salary/length of contract ballpark. IMO, Brad Penny would be a good pickup if Wake is healthy. Now (again, if it's true) there's a greater need for a known quantity like Lowe.

Two "upper-tier" pitchers? I assume you suggest this thinking that the Sox will not land Texeira.

Edited by koufax32, 15 November 2008 - 08:42 PM.

[Foulkey Reese]

Well we all knew that this would happen eventually I guess. I just hope that he straight out retires (if he needs to) instead of trying to pitch through pain all season.

[E5 Yaz]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

Could've been worse. Could've been $8M. ...d'oh

[Montana Fan]

Paul Byrd anyone? At the end of the season I looked at it as Wake or Byrd but not both in '09. It seemed so likely to be Wake that I don't think anyone has thought about Byrd. I'd love to see the 4&5 be Lowe (3 years + option) & Byrd (2 years, tradeable) to start the season, with Masterson in the pen and Buchholz, Bowden & Bard in AAA.

[jsinger121]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

Wake could still announce his retirement and the Sox wouldn't be on the hook for the money.

[bowiac]

Wake could still announce his retirement and the Sox wouldn't be on the hook for the money.

I suspect they'd give him the money regardless. Maybe have him retire and sign him to a consulting deal for identical dollars for luxury tax purposes (although that sort of thing is pretty iffy).

[Bowlerman9]

I suspect they'd give him the money regardless. Maybe have him retire and sign him to a consulting deal for identical dollars for luxury tax purposes (although that sort of thing is pretty iffy).

Why would they do this? I know there are some nice guys in the FO, but if he retires, why would they still pay him 4M?

I dont disagree that he will end up in the Sox organization at some point (and IMO he will take a few years off to spend with his family before this happens), but to pay him his salary when they dont have to seems .... well ..... dumb.

[bowiac]

Why would they do this? I know there are some nice guys in the FO, but if he retires, why would they still pay him 4M?

I dont disagree that he will end up in the Sox organization at some point (and IMO he will take a few years off to spend with his family before this happens), but to pay him his salary when they dont have to seems .... well ..... dumb.

Because of the nature of his current contract with the Red Sox. The perpetual options at below market value suggest a very congenial relationship. Sufficiently so that I suspect they might be inclined to pay him the money regardless once they picked up the option.

[mabrowndog]

No, but there would not be a need for a pitcher in Lowe's salary/length of contract ballpark. IMO, Brad Penny would be a good pickup if Wake is healthy. Now (again, if it's true) there's a greater need for a known quantity like Lowe.

Two "upper-tier" pitchers? I assume you suggest this thinking that the Sox will not land Texeira.

On your first point, if the Sox can afford Derek Lowe or the like (and they most certainly can), why would they "settle" for Penny, the oft-injured Ben Sheets, or any other less expensive/injury prone option? This latter group would be part of the "second free agent" group, IMO -- which could also include Burnett. Since when has Theo operated with the "Eh, we've got enough talent on hand" shoulder shrug?

On your second point, have you done the math regarding the total cash commitments the Sox removed from their bottom line this off-season?? So far, they've culled nearly $34 million from their $134M payroll. They'll probably wind up owing around $10 million in salary to the aribtration-eligible Youkilis, Papelbon, Lopez (and Cash if he returns). Meanwhile they're only obligated to pay a little over the $392k MLB minimum to their 7 youngsters (Pedroia, Lester, DC, Ellsbury, Aardsma, Buchholz & Lowrie), or around $3M, but let's go ahead and call it $5M just in case they're feeling generous and benevolent with Pedroia and Lester after their stellar seasons. The rest of the holdovers (Drew, Lowell, Ortiz, Beckett, Lugo, Daisuke, Bay, Crisp, Okajima & Wake) are due about $85M, bringing the team's total to about $100 million -- or $96M without Wake.

The luxury tax threshold for 2009 is about $160M. That leaves $64M of dollar-for-dollar flexibility, so if they chose to they could certainly absorb payouts to the likes of Teixeira, Lowe, and Burnett. And opting for Penny/Sheets/etc in lieu of the pricier Burnett would be a slam dunk in terms of feasibility.

Not that I'd necessarily endorse such a strategy, nor would I expect them to wind up shelling out more than $60M total to a trio of players. But they will absolutely be active bidders for the types of players I mentioned, and will not be content with some scrap heap waiver claim to fill Wakefield's role.

[roundegotrip]

This really is the best news of the offseason.

This is awful news if it's true. What a luxury it's been for the Sox to have a reliable $4 million/year SP in their back pocket every season.

[mabrowndog]

Because of the nature of his current contract with the Red Sox. The perpetual options at below market value suggest a very congenial relationship. Sufficiently so that I suspect they might be inclined to pay him the money regardless once they picked up the option.

Sorry, but Bowler's 100% correct here. There are plenty of other ways for the Sox to show their gratitude for a classy and productive career in Boston, but sucking $4M out of their 2009 on-field payroll isn't one of them. You're being far too idealistic in your assessment of this team's generosity.

[Bowlerman9]

Because of the nature of his current contract with the Red Sox. The perpetual options at below market value suggest a very congenial relationship. Sufficiently so that I suspect they might be inclined to pay him the money regardless once they picked up the option.

Maybe when Schilling gives back half of the 8M he received from the Sox for his 2008, they will turn around and give that to Wakefield.

Its not going to happen. It just isnt. The "relationship" between Wakefield and the Red Sox organization will (hopefully) go on for many years, with Wakefield being paid for his efforts. Whether it be as a coach, a front office employee, some cushy no-show job, a team event, his probably induction into the Red Sox HoF, maybe his 49 being retired and hung out in right field in 30 or 40 years ..... but they arent giving him 4M for retiring.

[bowiac]

Sorry, but Bowler's 100% correct here. There are plenty of other ways for the Sox to show their gratitude for a classy and productive career in Boston, but sucking $4M out of their 2009 on-field payroll isn't one of them. You're being far too idealistic in your assessment of this team's generosity.

Perhaps. I hope we don't get to find out.

[Trautwein's Degree]

This is awful news if it's true. What a luxury it's been for the Sox to have a reliable $4 million/year SP in their back pocket every season.

Awful news would be if Jon Lester were to retire.

Look, Wakefield has certainly earned his salary from the Red Sox. The Red Sox would be smart to try and convince him to return for 2009. Pitching depth is a good thing.

The problems with Wakefield are that he's prone to streaks, requires a special catcher, and has been horrible in the postseason. He's easy to run on and was second in the AL in wild pitches. Wakefield brings a unique set of negatives to the table.

His retirement would be a manageable loss.

Edited by Trautwein's Degree, 15 November 2008 - 10:34 PM.

[koufax32]

On your first point, if the Sox can afford Derek Lowe or the like (and they most certainly can), why would they "settle" for Penny, the oft-injured Ben Sheets, or any other less expensive/injury prone option? This latter group would be part of the "second free agent" group, IMO -- which could also include Burnett. Since when has Theo operated with the "Eh, we've got enough talent on hand" shoulder shrug?

On your second point, have you done the math regarding the total cash commitments the Sox removed from their bottom line this off-season?? So far, they've culled nearly $34 million from their $134M payroll. They'll probably wind up owing around $10 million in salary to the aribtration-eligible Youkilis, Papelbon, Lopez (and Cash if he returns). Meanwhile they're only obligated to pay a little over the $392k MLB minimum to their 7 youngsters (Pedroia, Lester, DC, Ellsbury, Aardsma, Buchholz & Lowrie), or around $3M, but let's go ahead and call it $5M just in case they're feeling generous and benevolent with Pedroia and Lester after their stellar seasons. The rest of the holdovers (Drew, Lowell, Ortiz, Beckett, Lugo, Daisuke, Bay, Crisp, Okajima & Wake) are due about $85M, bringing the team's total to about $100 million -- or $96M without Wake.

The luxury tax threshold for 2009 is about $160M. That leaves $64M of dollar-for-dollar flexibility, so if they chose to they could certainly absorb payouts to the likes of Teixeira, Lowe, and Burnett. And opting for Penny/Sheets/etc in lieu of the pricier Burnett would be a slam dunk in terms of feasibility.

Not that I'd necessarily endorse such a strategy, nor would I expect them to wind up shelling out more than $60M total to a trio of players. But they will absolutely be active bidders for the types of players I mentioned, and will not be content with some scrap heap waiver claim to fill Wakefield's role.

My objection stems from doubts that Theo would look to sign Tex, Lowe, AND another big name. The cash is there presently. Theo has mentioned on several occasions his desire to extend some of the homegrown talents that are creeping closer to free agency. Yes, the dollars are there now. But after a 6 or 7 year deal to Tex, maybe 3 to Lowe, and 4 or 5 to Burnett would it be feasable to extend, Pedroia, Youk, Papelbon, etc? Those moves would fill present holes at the expence of payroll flexibility in the future. That, to me, is the sticking point in the scenario you mentioned. I don't advocate a scrap heap approach. I believe we had enough of that during the Duquette years. Let's say the Sox end up with Lowe. IF someone like Penny or Sheets is healthy and can be had for a short contract length than I'm all aboard with the spend early and spend often approach. I see that as a viable risk for the #5 spot but not the #4 spot.

[TomRicardo]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

Why? So you can post even more rotoworld updates tthis off season? The Red Sox are going to have to pay 10 million more a year for that same production now. There will still be a back up catcher that will play 2 times a week. I really don't see how this makes the Red Sox better. This isn't Timlin.

[mabrowndog]

Koufax, thanks for clarifying. You bring up some good points with regard to in-house contract extensions and the long-term outlook. I still think Wake's retirement moves Theo from the $25 poker table to one with a $40 minimum wager.

His retirement would be a manageable loss.

With regard to on-field execution and production, I agree somewhat.

With regard to roster and payroll flexibility, I couldn't disagree more strongly. The loss may be manageable, but at a far greater cost. I think that was egotrip's main point.

[SoxScout]

Why can't they just pitch Bowden for 400K and get the same production?

[Bowlerman9]

My objection stems from doubts that Theo would look to sign Tex, Lowe, AND another big name. The cash is there presently. Theo has mentioned on several occasions his desire to extend some of the homegrown talents that are creeping closer to free agency. Yes, the dollars are there now. But after a 6 or 7 year deal to Tex, maybe 3 to Lowe, and 4 or 5 to Burnett would it be feasable to extend, Pedroia, Youk, Papelbon, etc? Those moves would fill present holes at the expence of payroll flexibility in the future. That, to me, is the sticking point in the scenario you mentioned. I don't advocate a scrap heap approach. I believe we had enough of that during the Duquette years. Let's say the Sox end up with Lowe. IF someone like Penny or Sheets is healthy and can be had for a short contract length than I'm all aboard with the spend early and spend often approach. I see that as a viable risk for the #5 spot but not the #4 spot.

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you think happens when you sign homegrown talent to contracts? Do you think that if we sign all those FA, we wont be able to afford our homegrown players?

Pedroia is supposed to make the league minimum this year, followed by 3 years of arbitration. If he signs a long term deal with the Sox this year, his 2009 salary will be around 1M instead of 400K. Its not like they would need to give him 8M in 2009 to sign him. He would get a little extra in the first year (as always happens with pre-arb players who sign long term deals).

Papelbon could get anywhere from 4M-10M in his first year of arb. Personally, I'd pencil him in for 6-7M this year. If the Sox sign him long term, his 2009 salary could be in the 5-8M range based on how it is structured.

I honestly have no idea how signing Tex, Lowe, and Burnett would stop them from signing our current talent.

If you're suggesting that we wont be able to afford the above mentioned homegrown talent past their arb years, again, I dont think this is a valid point.

Currently, the Sox have two players under contract in 2011 (DiceK and Drew) plus two options (Ortiz and Lugo) and one player under contract in 2012. If the Sox sign Tex, Lowe, and Burnett, they will have 5 players under contract in 2011 (Six if you count Ortiz .... dont count Lugo, please) and 4 under contract in 2012.

Signing Pedroia to a 5 or 6 year deal would buy out 1 or 2 years of FA. Thats paying him FA dollars in 2013 and 2014. He would be the fourth player under contract in 2013 after the Tex/Lowe/Burnett.

Signing Papelbon to a 5 year deal would buy out 2 years of FA (2012 and 2013).

Signing Lester to a 5 year deal buys out 1 year of FA (2013).

Again, I just dont see how signing FA to long term contracts for the years 2009-2014 will stop us from signing our current talent in years 2012-2014.

[mabrowndog]

Why can't they just pitch Bowden for 400K and get the same production?

Come on, Scout, Seriously? I mean, I like Bowden and all, but are we really going to count on him to produce this??

[SoxScout]

You were counting on Wakefield to do all that? I think that's pretty crazy.

For a back of the rotation starter I would sure as hell rather pitch Bowden (he is what he is, Baker/Sonnanstine-type) and expect nothing worse than a 4.50 ERA rather than pay $10m for someone else.

Edited by SoxScout, 15 November 2008 - 11:03 PM.

[mabrowndog]

You were counting on Wakefield to do all that? I think that's pretty crazy.

Well, uhh... When healthy, he's produced similarly for the last 8 seasons running. Am I wrong about that?

And it's not nearly as crazy as expecting a rookie with one big league start to duplicate what Wake did. Tim's regular season production, right up through the year he turned 42 years old, has been rock-solid throughout the current millennium. That's what I call a strong track record, and a harbinger of future production if healthy.

So yes, if Wake had remained healthy, save for his annual second-half DL stint, I definitely expected similar production from him.

[philly sox fan]

You were counting on Wakefield to do all that? I think that's pretty crazy.

For a back of the rotation starter I would sure as hell rather pitch Bowden (he is what he is, Baker/Sonnanstine-type) and expect nothing worse than a 4.50 ERA rather than pay $10m for someone else.

You mean you expect nothing less than an ERA a full 2 runs less than Clay Buchholz, the greatest Sox pitching prospect since Roger Clemens?

Bold, if more than a little irrelevent, words.

I'd be shocked if there is a single projection system that puts Bowden especially close to what we'd expect from Wake.

[bowiac]

I'd be shocked if there is a single projection system that puts Bowden especially close to what we'd expect from Wake.

I expect ZiPS will. ZiPS is both notoriously harsh on Wakefield (because it is relatively heavily DIPS based, but without a knuckleballer adjustment), kind to rookies.

ZiPS is a good system, not significantly worse than any other overall, but if I had to guess, it'll (wrongly) put Bowden within maybe a quarter run of Wakefield.

[SoxScout]

No not wrong at all Dog, but part of the expectation you (and most) had up until earlier today was that he was going to be healthy and that is obviously in question already. I wouldn't be saying this if it was Beckett (or Dice, Lester) that was hurt, sure then I would be interested big time free agent pitcher.

With it being Wake, my main goal would be finding a pitcher that will keep us in games and not be counted on to be the cornerstone of the staff, and in my judgment on his stuff/makeup/expectations I think Bowden would be fine. We would deal with some homers, but he is not going to walk people left and right and that should lead to not many bombardments and a nice chunk of quality starts.

My opinion on this is also enhanced by the fact that I am scared shitless of all the fragile arms on the market and the years that are going to be given to the healthy, if lesser, arms.

....and you are right Philly, I shouldn't have thrown out the ERA because I guess the shittiest luck in the world like Clay had last year can happen to anyone. If Bowden has a .350 BABIP and 60% strand rate, well, that will be ERA suck. But I wouldn't be upset if the peripherals were in order.

[roundegotrip]

When healthy, he's produced similarly for the last 8 seasons running. Am I wrong about that?

Barring more serious health problems than he's seen, based on his past 6 seasons, it would be reasonable to count on Wakefield for about 185 innings and 16 quality starts. 16 quality starts will rank somewhere in the 20s in the AL most seasons. 185 IP will probably rank about 30th in the AL most seasons. I know, quality starts... but I think it's a good stat when you're talking about 4/5 pitchers.

[koufax32]

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you think happens when you sign homegrown talent to contracts? Do you think that if we sign all those FA, we wont be able to afford our homegrown players?

I honestly have no idea how signing Tex, Lowe, and Burnett would stop them from signing our current talent.

If you're suggesting that we wont be able to afford the above mentioned homegrown talent past their arb years, again, I dont think this is a valid point.

There is that possibility. But projecting cost and makeup of the team 5-6 years down the road is an exercise in futility. My contention was not that they couldn't afford that. I was making the case that this FO doesn't see all those long term contracts at the same time as a wise idea. I happen to agree with them. It's not the monetary cost but the time/length of contract cost in having all of those long term contracts. After all, we're talking about the team who has to come up with magical loopholes in order to sign a Japanese import due to their "no contract longer than 4-5 years" policy.

To expect Bowden to give typical Wakefield production next year may just be viewing him through rose-colored glasses. I can see him being the 6th starter for this team but not a rotation regular yet.

[Rob Bradford]

This from our man Alex Speier, who made some phone calls last night ...

http://blogs.weei.co...ly-exaggerated/

Though a rumor has circulated in major-league circles that Tim Wakefield is dealing with shoulder problems that may lead him to contemplate retirement, it appears that the notion is unfounded. The 42-year-old’s shoulder shows normal wear, but otherwise, his end of year medical examination–performed before the Red Sox decided to pick up his option for next season–was virtually identical to the one at the end of the previous season, and from a medical standpoint, there is no known reason to expect that he cannot match his 2008 contributions next season. Wakefield went 10-11 with a 4.13 ERA in 181 innings during the regular season, before going 0-1 with a 16.88 ERA in his lone postseason appearance.

[lurker42]

While this may definitely be true, it would serve the team well to keep Wakefield's possible retirement under wraps w/r/t their pursuit of pitchers, both via trade and on the free agent market.

I know you're one of the people who'd like to see Wakefield retire, but I think you might be trying a little too hard to keep that dream alive here. This rumor was started by an anonymous internet poster who wouldn't reveal his source nor anything else his source has told him in the past. It's since been refuted by a WEEI reporter, a report which was passed on by a Herald writer. Speier and Bradford aren't infallible, and it is possible the Sox have successfully kept the truth under wraps...but I think Speier and Bradford are much more credible than the original source in this case (no offense to bd11 - he was just passing on what he heard).

I think we can put this one to rest.

Edited by lurker42, 16 November 2008 - 03:12 PM.

[Pearl Wilson]

Well, the reports are not mutually exclusive. The main point made buy the rumor is that Wakefield's shoulder is bothering him. The rumor did not address the medical exam.

The Speier report did not mention how Wakefield is feeling. Rather, it focused on the medical exam being unchanged from an earlier exam. This isn't news; it was reported when the announcement was made that Wake would be back in '09.

Just because his exam did not change does not mean he has a normal shoulder. It does not mean he is pain-free or symptom-free now. He has a history, after all.

[Jack Sox]

I'm inclined to believe that there's validity in the initial posters rumor. As much as it would royally suck if it ends up being true.

I'm sorry, I get that some people here may not like what Wakefield brings to the table. But the best news of the offseason? REALLY? If you truly believe that, then I'd argue you're out of your mind. It's been well documented that Wake - when healthy - brings 185-200 innings a season of above average pitching. That's at 4 million a year. Probably a top 5 bargainin baseball. Inconsistencies be damned.

So, okay, let's just say Wakefield retires, who fills his innings? Do you really want the Sox to go out and pay AJ Burnett 18 million a pop for and be no more consistent than Wake? And that doesn't even account for his miserable injury history. Or is Derek Lowe on a 5 year deal more up your alley?

Needless to say, this in no, way, shape, or form can be spun as a good thing. Let alone "the best news of the offseason". Holy shit...

[bd11]

I know you're one of the people who'd like to see Wakefield retire, but I think you might be trying a little too hard to keep that dream alive here. This rumor was started by an anonymous internet poster who wouldn't reveal his source nor anything else his source has told him in the past. It's since been refuted by a WEEI reporter, a report which was passed on by a Herald writer. Speier and Bradford aren't infallible, and it is possible the Sox have successfully kept the truth under wraps...but I think Speier and Bradford are much more credible than the original source in this case (no offense to bd11 - he was just passing on what he heard).

I think we can put this one to rest.

We all hear rumors from people and usually choose not to post them. I simply thought that due to the timing of when I was told this information and our various threads regarding potential Red Sox transactions, as well as what I feel is the outstanding credibility and track record of my source, that this story was post worthy. I also wanted to know if anyone else had received similar information. My post made it clear that this was not take it to the bank info, but simply information from a source who has proven to be very credible in the past. Contrary to the quote above, I did not start the rumor. We will likely never know for sure whether this story was 100% true or false. If Wake retires, he may have done so for another reason. If Wake comes back, he may very well have been suffering from a shoulder injury and strongly contemplated retirement, but ended up coming back. If Wake retires, which I hope he does not given his salary and performance levels, you will not see me taking a bow for this story. Nor will I apologize if he comes back.

Of course I respect Bradford and Speier. However, I will agree with a poster above that their respective comments are not dispositive of this matter. Their sources may have reasons to deceive them. Mine does not. Plus the info Speier shared may not be relevant. Wake had his end of the season tests done a while ago. The reports of the shoulder discomfort are much more recent.

Carry on.

[gcapalbo]

Put me in the camp that says that if Wakefield is done, it's a loss of a bargain for the team going into next season (and we're looking at a less valuable replacement in someone like Byrd, or spending more to get some other talent).



It felt to me like Wake was throwing a lot more fastballs this season and less knucklers. Could changing his pitch selection to throw more 'wearing' pitches at his advanced age bring on some shoulder issues? Actually looking at the numbers shows a slightly different story:

Season	FB	CB	KN	Pitches
2005	12.1% (76.1)	4.3% (60.2)	83.6% (67.9)	3393
2006	11.0% (75.3)	2.8% (61.9)	86.2% (67.6)	2252
2007	13.6% (74.2)	3.7% (61.8)	82.6% (66.8)	2881
2008	13.3% (72.9)	5.5% (59.5)	81.2% (65.1)	2788

In 2008 it wasn't more fastballs-- it was more curveballs this season, and a slight decrease in knucklers.



Perhaps the greater percentage of strikes for the FB made it seem like fastballs were more common-- they were just more effective.



Could just throwing a few more curveballs over the course of the season lead to shoulder issues?




Perhaps so.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

This really is the best news of the offseason. Sucks that the Sox are on the hook for the $4M though.

*assuming this is all true.

I'm still shaking my head at this. Although it's now obvious that your obsessive linking to Rotoworld lo these many years has been a thinly-veiled ruse to mask your stunning lack of baseball knowledge. The jig is up!

[absintheofmalaise]

Put me in the camp that says that if Wakefield is done, it's a loss of a bargain for the team going into next season (and we're looking at a less valuable replacement in someone like Byrd, or spending more to get some other talent).

It felt to me like Wake was throwing a lot more fastballs this season and less knucklers. Could changing his pitch selection to throw more 'wearing' pitches at his advanced age bring on some shoulder issues? Actually looking at the numbers shows a slightly different story:

In 2008 it wasn't more fastballs-- it was more <i>curveballs</i> this season, and a slight decrease in knucklers.

Perhaps the greater percentage of strikes for the FB made it seem like fastballs were more common-- they were just more effective.

Could just throwing a few more curveballs over the course of the season lead to shoulder issues?

Perhaps so.

As a general rule, a fastball is more stressful on the arm than a curveball. If it's an overhand CB, you are using more of your wrist to put the spin on the ball that causes it to break down. So, it shouldn't be causing anymore strain on his shoulder than his FB. At his age, it's likely to just be overall wear and tear that's causing his alleged shoulder injury.

Edited by absintheofmalaise, 17 November 2008 - 10:22 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Wakefield were to retire tomorrow, we'd approach a pitcher like Derek Lowe, or perhaps a trade for Javier Vazquez with a lot more purpose, and the team would ultimately be better for it. I mean we were all soooooo confident in Wakefield this October, right?

Would you be more confident in Vazquez? Everyone is all warm and fuzzy about Lowe, but he's going to cost you $9-$10M more than Wakefield and did have an ERA of 5 and a half the last time he was in the AL. Spending that much money has ramifications on the rest of the roster. Wakefield sucks in October (or at least he has) but his performance during the regular season at the price the Sox have paid is a big factor that the Sox have made it that far. I think it's often taken for granted.

This does not even begin to discuss the fact that retaining Wakefield means you have to carry his no-hit caddy, as well. This eliminates the option of acquiring a young, raw catcher and grooming him under a veteran, such as Varitek.

I know it gets repeated ad nauseum, but Wakefield's presence does not mean that the Sox have to carry a no-hit caddy at all. The Red Sox do appear to favor defense in a backup; I wouldn't expect them to suddenly have a stud backup simply because Wakefield is off the team. Although it may happen, I'm skeptical that the Sox have been unwilling to acquire such a player solely because of Wakefield.