34 replies to this topic

[templeUsox]

Cool. He's going to be very good.

[Tokyo Sox]

Info on this kid seems kind of scant. Would he jump right into the rotation or would they put him in the minors first? At 22, I'd guess he needs more seasoning, especially against minor/major league hitters.

Good question. As I said in the other Tazawa thread, he has been dominant vs Industrial League pitching and probably would have been starting in an NPB-team rotation already if he had wanted to play there. But the average competition he has been facing is so vastly inferior, I can't imagine just throwing him straight into MLB. It's just too much. Start him somewhere in the minors (AA?) and hey, if he's killing it, move him up quickly.

I think a lot of this will come down to who gives him the best shot at the Majors right away. If the Sox are only willing to give him a minor league contract but the Mariners are willing to let him start the season in the bigs, maybe he goes Mariners. Who knows. A Mariners scout named Yamamoto has met with Tazawa's current manager and said outright that they want to sign him. He also met directly with Tazawa, the first MLB scout to do so since the Japanese draft last Thursday.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This is certainly good news. There's nothing to lose by signing this kid and with the success of Matsuzaka and Okajima in the last two seasons, I'd imaging that the Red Sox name is pretty solid over there right now, which might give them a slight advantage when negotiating with him. I'm surprised the Yankees aren't being mentioned as suitors for him, though. They need pitching and adding a prospect like him to their system would soften the blow if they decide to ship out some of their young pitching for Peavy.

Hopefully the Sox can close this out quickly and move on to other targets.

[JimD]

Sign him - it's only money.

[maufman]

If the only obstacle to signing this kid is giving him Craig Hansen money, then it's a no-brainer. I suspect there's a catch we don't know about.

[Quintanariffic]

If the only obstacle to signing this kid is giving him Craig Hansen money, then it's a no-brainer. I suspect there's a catch we don't know about.

Agreed, and I suspect that the catch will be the possibility that no NPB teams ever want to work with the Sox again. From what we've read, the Tazawa situation is extremely sensitive for them, as it could mark the beginning of an era when amateur Japanese talent skips the NPB altogether in favor or MLB, effectively rendering the NPB just another developmental league. This is the very antithesis of what they're about, so I could see some hard feelings towards the Sox and MLB if they get aggressive.

[Soxfan in Fla]

If they are going to give a major league contract to Hansen they might as well do it with this kid. Get him signed up, sounds like a promising pitcher then move him along slowly in the minors.

[sonofgodcf]

Agreed, and I suspect that the catch will be the possibility that no NPB teams ever want to work with the Sox again. From what we've read, the Tazawa situation is extremely sensitive for them, as it could mark the beginning of an era when amateur Japanese talent skips the NPB altogether in favor or MLB, effectively rendering the NPB just another developmental league. This is the very antithesis of what they're about, so I could see some hard feelings towards the Sox and MLB if they get aggressive.

With the way that the posting system works though, can the Sox really burn any bridges by signing him? I thought it was all blind, and just came down to the highest bid (or in the other cases, the Sox deal with the Japanese free agents directly). Either way, as long as the Sox want to be the high spender in those scenarios, I don't see how signing Tazawa hurt their dealings with the NPB.

Edited by sonofgodcf, 04 November 2008 - 09:45 AM.

[MannysDestination]

With the way that the posting system works though, can the Sox really burn any bridges by signing him? I thought it was all blind, and just came down to the highest bid (or in the other cases, the Sox deal with the Japanese free agents directly). Either way, as long as the Sox want to be the high spender in those scenarios, I don't see how signing Tazawa hurt their dealings with the NPB.

I'd have to agree. The posting process is blind and eliminating the Sox from NPB dealings is the equivalent of an agent saying they won't deal with the Yankees, especially given how the Sox have shown they're willing to pony up for premium talent. If NPB teams can get over the Millar episode, they'll be able to deal with us signing Tazawa.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Mentioned in the ml forum that one of the issues could involve what kind of access MLB scouts would have (or would have revoked).

From the sound of things, this is way bigger than the Millar issue.......

[Quintanariffic]

I'd have to agree. The posting process is blind and eliminating the Sox from NPB dealings is the equivalent of an agent saying they won't deal with the Yankees, especially given how the Sox have shown they're willing to pony up for premium talent. If NPB teams can get over the Millar episode, they'll be able to deal with us signing Tazawa.

This is bigger than just the Red Sox, but it will impact them in some ways. This has implications for Japanese participation in the World Championships, a key issue for Selig. The Sox have scouting and development relationships with one NPB team whose name escapes me, and I would imagine that would be impacted. There are likely a myriad of other ways in which MLB and NPB work together on marketing deals etc... It's not just about the posting process.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

From the sound of things, this is way bigger than the Millar issue.......

This is an entirely different animal. Millar was a foreign player and who had a history tying him to the United States. This kid is Japanese and hasn't set foot in the States yet as a baseball player. If he gets his way and walks without ever talking to a Japanese team, he could break the entire system over there. They have a lot more to lose than they did with Millar.

[Captaincoop]

Info on this kid seems kind of scant. Would he jump right into the rotation or would they put him in the minors first? At 22, I'd guess he needs more seasoning, especially against minor/major league hitters.

I don't know much about Tazawa specifically, but all political issues aside, if he is in a position to demand significant money and jump directly to the US, is he going to be willing to spend a year in Portland or Pawtucket? I'm not referring to the level of competition so much as I am to the prestige and the lifestyle factors. I can't imagine that living in those places and playing in front of a few thousand people is going to be very appealing if he has other options on the table.

[MannysDestination]

I understand that NPB is unhappy, but to think they'd retaliate against whoever signs Tazawa is pure speculation. There have been no reports that say this. From NPB Tracker:


Sept. 15:

Tazawa’s announcement has predictably send a shock wave through Japanese baseball. Meetings are underway — so far the 12 NPB have met amongst themselves and with three amateur baseball bodies; and NPB commissioner Ryozo Kato is meeting with Bud Selig on September 16 in New York (correction 9/16: representatives from the two commissioners offices are meeting today, a meeting between the actual commissioners is on the cards for later). My impression is that the Japanese baseball institution is more intent on preventing this development from setting a precedent than it is blocking this individual player’s move to the US.

Much of the discussion seems to be around the uneven playing field between NPB and MLB teams in pursuit of Tazawa. Tazawa is subject to the NPB draft, while he’s eligible to sign as a free agent with MLB teams. This puts NPB at a considerable disadvantage: NPB teams can only offer draft picks a maximum bonus of about $1M, while MLB teams aren’t bound to a limit; NPB scouts are limited in when they can talk to amateur players while MLB scouts don’t have to comply to such limits. Like MLB, NPB has a draft system to try and fairly distribute talent among the teams. It would be a shame to see that effort undermined, and it seems worthwhile to revisit the rules for teams scouting players subject to the NPB draft.

It’s important to note that the news here is not necessarily the MLB interest, but that Tazawa has chosen to forgo the NPB draft. NPB and MLB have had an unwritten agreement in place since 1962 that prohibits MLB teams from signing Japanese NPB draft candidates, but that hasn’t stopped MLB teams from trying to sign top Japanese amateurs in the past. Tazawa is the first to accept the overtures. So while MLB teams have mostly honored the letter of the gentleman’s agreement, they haven’t entirely honored the spirit of it. It’s only now that a top talent has been lured away that the NPB institution is getting upset.

http://www.npbtracke...tazawa-problem/

Oct. 22:

So, to get caught up, “the Tazawa penalty” is a new rule banning Japanese players who have opted out of the NPB draft to sign internationally from joining an NPB team for up to three years after leaving their international organization. The idea is make top Japanese amateurs think twice about bypassing NPB for MLB by eliminating the assumption that they have an easy path back.

Though I haven’t found anything concrete on this, I’m guessing the rule will be in effect from Tazawa forward, so Robert Boothe shouldn’t have anything to worry about if he wants to pitch in Japan in the future.

Tazawa has commented on the situation: “Personally I only thought about going to America. I wasn’t thinking about the next person, so this is something I have to apologize for”.

My gut feeling is that this is kind of a sour grapes move by the NPB establishment and they’ll get over it. There is some historic precedence to suggest that they will: the cases of Hideki Irabu, Kazuhito Tadano, Hideo Nomo and Mac Suzuki.

Irabu is perhaps the most informative example. Prior to being a bust with the Yankees, Irabu was under contract with the San Diego Padres, whom he refused to play for. At the time, the NPB establishment felt that they had been embarrassed by Irabu’s antics and said that he wouldn’t be allowed back in, but Hanshin signed him for the 2003 season. He won the fans over with a strong start.

http://www.npbtracke...tazawa-penalty/


Oct 30:

Junichi Tazawa: NPB teams respected his wishes not to be drafted. I thought someone might take a flier on him with a late-round pick, but it didn’t happen.

http://www.npbtracke...ylines-results/

Nov 1:

As you no doubt know by now, Junichi Tazawa went unselected in the recent NPB draft, clearing the way for him to sign with an MLB organization. While official negotiations reportedly won’t start until Nov 24 or so, Tazawa is meeting with representatives from the Mariners and Braves on Tuesday. I’ve picked up on about six teams interested in Tazawa, with the most recent addition to the mix being the Phillies.

http://www.npbtracke...umor-mongering/

So signing Tazawa would be completely in accordance with all rules, the NPB clubs could have pseudo-blocked him by selecting him in the draft but didn't, and the commissioners of the two leagues are meeting to discuss the precedent of Tazawa's actions. It's quite possible, if not likely, that they'll introduce new rules to prevent this in the future, but to think NPB would act punitvely towards whatever club ultimately signs him is unfounded from what I've seen.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

So signing Tazawa would be completely in accordance with all rules, the NPB clubs could have pseudo-blocked him by selecting him in the draft but didn't, and the commissioners of the two leagues are meeting to discuss the precedent of Tazawa's actions. It's quite possible, if not likely, that they'll introduce new rules to prevent this in the future, but to think NPB would act punitvely towards whatever club ultimately signs him is unfounded from what I've seen.

I don't think there's anything wrong with speculating about it. In fact, I think it's worth discussing and could certainly be a real issue. We know there are reports that something is slowing this up. This could very well be it.

[Tokyo Sox]

This is bigger than just the Red Sox, but it will impact them in some ways. This has implications for Japanese participation in the World Championships, a key issue for Selig. The Sox have scouting and development relationships with one NPB team whose name escapes me, and I would imagine that would be impacted. There are likely a myriad of other ways in which MLB and NPB work together on marketing deals etc... It's not just about the posting process.

The Sox info sharing agreement is with Bobby Valentine's team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. IIRC, it was a 3 year arrangement and we've just completed the 2nd year of it. I agree that there are likely a number of other ways that the Sox could be negatively impacted by some NPB-issued decree that would potentially never be made known to the outside world. I think, as Snod says, this is at least one real possibility that is at least worth speculating about & considering. As others have noted the way the Sox participate in the posting system shouldn't be effected, but various other areas of "cooperation" certainly could be.

So signing Tazawa would be completely in accordance with all rules, the NPB clubs could have pseudo-blocked him by selecting him in the draft but didn't

In accordance with the rules, to the extent that there was no rule in place. While breaching the "gentlemen's agreement" is certainly within the rules legally, it would be naive to think there will definitely be no fallout from the bitter taste left in NPB's mouth. As for NPB clubs "pseudo-blocking" him, I disagree. I mean, either they could block him or they couldn't...and they couldn't. Tazawa was already drafted once, by Orix, and didn't want to play there so joined Eneos. This year he specifically issued a statement saying, "Please don't draft me, I'm flat out not playing in NPB next year", so none of them wasted their time drafting him.

It's quite possible, if not likely, that they'll introduce new rules to prevent this in the future, but to think NPB would act punitvely towards whatever club ultimately signs him is unfounded from what I've seen.

I think you underestimate their ability to behave childishly in a desperate attempt to protect their interests. They've already displayed a willingness to punish individual Japanese players that go overseas -- even though those players have a right to do so in accordance with all rules. I don't know why we should then assume, as you suggest, that they won't attempt to somehow punish MLB teams that are the other side of those deals.

[MannysDestination]

I think you underestimate their ability to behave childishly in a desperate attempt to protect their interests. They've already displayed a willingness to punish individual Japanese players that go overseas -- even though those players have a right to do so in accordance with all rules. I don't know why we should then assume, as you suggest, that they won't attempt to somehow punish MLB teams that are the other side of those deals.

It's quite possible I'm underestimating their ability to behave childishly. However, it seems like "punishing" a specific team (particularly the sox who have deep pockets, ongoing business relationships, and have given more money to NPB than any other MLB club) would not be in their best interests from a business perspective over the long-term, so any "retaliation" would be temporary and immaterial, similar to NPB's prior actions of retaliation. IIRC NPB teams essentially blackballed the Sox for the Millar situation in 2002 and that lasted all of a couple years. Are there any examples of NPB sticking to their guns over any period of time?

All I'm saying is that if I were Theo I would not let the spectre of hurt feelings or NPB retaliation get in the way of obtaining a premium talent like Tazawa, and the Millar precendence (of pissing off NPB for the best interests of the Red Sox) tells me he would agree. Essentially, there are multiple clubs willing to piss off NPB so it would put the Red Sox in a position of competitive disadvantage to abide by some unwritten gentleman's agreement. Theo hasn't abided by the MLB commissioner's "guidance" on over-slot draft money, so I see no reason to believe these rumors would get in the way of a Tazawa acquisition.

Edited by MannysDestination, 04 November 2008 - 11:41 AM.

[Quintanariffic]

It's quite possible I'm underestimating their ability to behave childishly. However, it seems like "punishing" a specific team (particularly the sox who have deep pockets, ongoing business relationships, and have given more money to NPB than any other MLB club) would not be in their best interests from a business perspective over the long-term, so any "retaliation" would be temporary and immaterial, similar to NPB's prior actions of retaliation. IIRC NPB teams essentially blackballed the Sox for the Millar situation in 2002 and that lasted all of a couple years. Are there any examples of NPB sticking to their guns over any period of time?

All I'm saying is that if I were Theo I would not let the spectre of hurt feelings or NPB retaliation get in the way of obtaining a premium talent like Tazawa, and the Millar precendence (of pissing off NPB for the best interests of the Red Sox) tells me he would agree. Essentially, there are multiple clubs willing to piss off NPB so it would put the Red Sox in a position of competitive disadvantage to abide by some unwritten gentleman's agreement. Theo hasn't abided by the MLB commissioner's "guidance" on over-slot draft money, so I see no reason to believe these rumors would get in the way of a Tazawa acquisition.

MD -

I think you're arguing against a bit of a straw man here. I don't think anyone has said that the "other" issues would be so material as to form the basis for an argument against signing Tazawa. Rather, there have been reports that "other" issues exist which first need to be sorted out, and it's quite reasonable to speculate that those issues are likely related to what we're discussing here. They would act as a hurdle to get over rather than a wall stopping any progress. As with most issues on SOSH, this is isn't black and white - i.e. he signs or doesn't. Sounds like he'll sign somewhere and hopefully with the Sox, but some things need to be worked out first due to the delicacy of this precedent setting situation.

[MannysDestination]

MD -

I think you're arguing against a bit of a straw man here. I don't think anyone has said that the "other" issues would be so material as to form the basis for an argument against signing Tazawa. Rather, there have been reports that "other" issues exist which first need to be sorted out, and it's quite reasonable to speculate that those issues are likely related to what we're discussing here. They would act as a hurdle to get over rather than a wall stopping any progress. As with most issues on SOSH, this is isn't black and white - i.e. he signs or doesn't. Sounds like he'll sign somewhere and hopefully with the Sox, but some things need to be worked out first due to the delicacy of this precedent setting situation.

I'm not arguing against a straw man, you and others said it would be an "obstacle" or "a catch" to signing him, and I see no evidence that pissing off NPB or anyone else would be an obstacle to Theo doing something if he believes it's in the best interest of the club. It's certainly worthwhile to discuss and speculate what the ramifications of obtaining Tazawa might be, but I personally don't think these ramifications would inhibit decision making.

Since we're talking about it, what are the possible ramifications? There are two major buckets - MLB-wide consequences on the part of NPB, and MLB-club-that-signs-Tazawa consequences. (There is a third bucket - disincentivizing players from doing this - but the "Tazawa Rule" I linked to earlier addresses this to a certain extent.) What would the goal of any ramifications be? To discourage Japanese players from opting out of the NPB draft and going straight to MLB.

Intuitively, I don't understand how punishing a single club would meet the goal of preventing this from setting precedent. In order for NPB to meet that goal the consequences for signing a single player outside the NPB draft system would have to be so severe that MLB clubs would be severely effected by violating that rule. What avenues are available to NPB to retaliate against a single club? They can't block specific teams from the posting system, which is the most common method of non-free agent NPB acquisitions. They can't block free agents in Japan from signing with a single MLB team. They can bar a team from development deals, in theory, but these development deals are not widespread (besides the Sox, how many teams have them?), so they wouldn't be enough of a deterrent to discourage other non-sox teams from signing pre-draft talent.

When one considers all of these factors, it makes much more sense for there to be high-level discussions between the two commissioners offices, and we've already seen reports that these have either taken place or are scheduled to take place. This also seems like an ideal catalyst to reconsider some kind of international draft system. I'd guess that NPB and MLB have league-wide responses to this due to the importance of a Japan draft for NPB. Whether this response is before or after Tazawa signs with an MLB club remains to be seen. Of course, this could be the "obstacle" that was being discussed, namely that the MLB comissioner's office has informed clubs to hold off on pursuing Tazawa until NPB and MLB have a chance to further clarify the situation, but there have been no reports to suggest this.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I'm not arguing against a straw man, you and others said it would be an "obstacle" or "a catch" to signing him, and I see no evidence that pissing off NPB or anyone else would be an obstacle to Theo doing something if he believes it's in the best interest of the club. It's certainly worthwhile to discuss and speculate what the ramifications of obtaining Tazawa might be, but I personally don't think these ramifications would inhibit decision making.

I think I read it in Seth's book, maybe it came up in the Matsuzaka negotiations:

After the Millar incident, the Sox had a horrible reputation in Japan. Theo, the FO, the the Far East scouts spent several long, snail-paced years slowly rebuilding a good reputation and regaining a sense of trust from the Japanese clubs.

Maybe this is the real long-term "best interest of the club" that has the Sox most concerned. Sure they want the player, but they don't want to shoot themselves in the foot in the process.......

[Snodgrass'Muff]

MD, you're arguing against a strawman because no one is arguing against what you're saying. No one is saying this might stop the Sox from signing him (I've only seen it mentioned that it might slow it down... and it already has if reports are to be believed). No one is saying that the two commissioner's offices aren't talking and trying to work out a deal (they obviously are). And no one is saying that the NPB punishing one mlb team would make sense in the long run (it wouldn't). We're just speculating about a possible backlash if an MLB team does sign this kid. And none of your points preclude the NPB from reacting. All of what you suggest might be true and come to pass and they still might lash out anyway. Sometimes people make irrational decisions... sometimes they make short sighted ones. We're just talking about what those possible responses might be.

But no one is really disagreeing with the main points you keep bringing up.

[Quintanariffic]

MD, you're arguing against a strawman because no one is arguing against what you're saying. No one is saying this might stop the Sox from signing him (I've only seen it mentioned that it might slow it down... and it already has if reports are to be believed). No one is saying that the two commissioner's offices aren't talking and trying to work out a deal (they obviously are). And no one is saying that the NPB punishing one mlb team would make sense in the long run (it wouldn't). We're just speculating about a possible backlash if an MLB team does sign this kid. And none of your points preclude the NPB from reacting. All of what you suggest might be true and come to pass and they still might lash out anyway. Sometimes people make irrational decisions... sometimes they make short sighted ones. We're just talking about what those possible responses might be.

But no one is really disagreeing with the main points you keep bringing up.

Thanks, SM. I thought I had been clear enough. apparently not.

[saintnick912]

If the Braves are in on a young player, I'd take a good look at matching them. The reverse of "if the Braves are looking to dump a prospect" as we saw with Marte.