[Punchado]

I'm pretty tired of talking about this, but if I were to guess I'd say that Boras is telling Tex to wait and see if the Angels or Red Sox blink and up their offer -- or to see if he can get the Chokers involved. There's no way Tex is just "not sure" when I'd guess that the money is pretty even everywhere.

[EdRalphRomero]

Isn't there some danger to Boras/Tex in dragging the process out? If the Yankees sign another Type A they are done for the offseason right? So if they were to sign one (Lowe, Sheets, Ramirez) the market for Tex would be less nebulous than it is today. Now presumably the Yankees know this and want to avoid making their last move and leaving the Sox alone to gobble up what they want at low low prices. But there has to be some danger to the 'drag it out and see if the Sox blink' strategy.

This post has been edited by EdRalphRomero: 15 December 2008 - 04:46 PM

[Punchado]

EdRalphRomero, on Dec 15 2008, 01:36 PM, said:

Isn't there some danger to Boras/Tex in dragging the process out? If the Yankess sign another Type A they are done for the offseason right? So if they were to sign one (Lowe, Sheets, Ramirez) the market for Tex would be less nebulous than it is today. Now presumably the Yankees know this and want to avoid making their last move and leaving the Sox alone to gobble up what they want at low low prices. But there has to be some danger to the 'drag it out and see if the Sox blink' strategy.

Not really -- especially if the money is close. Someone will sign him. The only minor risk is if the money isn't close and he's trying to get the highest bidder to go another 20 million. If that high bidder bails for some reason and Tex gets 140 instead of 180 then Boras fucked up. That ain't gonna happen, though. There's a special spot for Boras in Hell (he probably has to live for eternity as a die hard Bills fan) but he does know how to get his clients every penny.

[rembrat]

mfried, on Dec 15 2008, 04:30 PM, said:

Let's imagine that the information on the size of the contract were not released to the public except by the mutual consent of both Sox management and Teixeira. The point being - why should a fan care about the dollar numbers? Isn't performance the only real concern of fans? (nb: the length of contract must be public info - or we would think both management and players were insane...)

Because we have to break down and analyze anything and everything the Sox do. A topic about some uniform changes carried on for like 4 pages, now there is even a poll, this is what we do man. No but seriously, I just despise overpaying.

Dave Cameron has been doing these really great "Free Agent Value" pieces over at Fangraphs and he has come to the conclusion, based on how the market has emerged, that teams are paying close to or less than 4.4M per win (ex: CC is being paid 4.15M per win) . Let's just use 4.4M here. Tex is a +5 win 1B, factor in a 10% discount because it's a long term deal and you get 19.8M, and that at 8 yrs comes out close to 160M.

I don't think I have to divulge into why it's sound practice to nailing someone's value and paying them just that, since they are pretty obvious.

[FenwayWhalers]

rembrat, on Dec 15 2008, 01:49 PM, said:

Because we have to break down and analyze anything and everything the Sox do. A topic about some uniform changes carried on for like 4 pages, now there is even a poll, this is what we do man. No but seriously, I just despise overpaying.

Dave Cameron has been doing these really great "Free Agent Value" pieces over at Fangraphs and he has come to the conclusion, based on how the market has emerged, that teams are paying close to or less than 4.4M per win (ex: CC is being paid 4.15M per win) . Let's just use 4.4M here. Tex is a +5 win 1B, factor in a 10% discount because it's a long term deal and you get 19.8M, and that at 8 yrs comes out close to 160M.

I don't think I have to divulge into why it's sound practice to nailing someone's value and paying them just that, since they are pretty obvious.

Yeah but uniform changes actually effects us. We go out and buy jerseys. How much Tex makes really shouldn't be a concern to us. Unless it raises the price of our tickets- which will probably occur no matter who they sign.

But you're exactly right- people have the need to break down and analyze everything. Some feel like they are part of the game by cheering as loud as they can while others prefer to sit and keep score and stats on in their program guide.

[Resonance Wright]

mfried, on Dec 15 2008, 04:30 PM, said:

Let's imagine that the information on the size of the contract were not released to the public except by the mutual consent of both Sox management and Teixeira. The point being - why should a fan care about the dollar numbers? Isn't performance the only real concern of fans? (nb: the length of contract must be public info - or we would think both management and players were insane...)

There's a bazillion posts here about the Red Sox, most of which are about things a little less important than the whys and wherefores of signing Mark Teixeira. If performance on the field were the only things we cared about, SoSH would have like four threads. And there are a lot of baseball forums like that. As was just said, we do it this way here because we're the guys who are attracted to a forum where stuff like this is discussed. Cinco Ocho don't know how he do, he just do.

The short answer as to why you care about the dollar numbers is that the club only has so much to spend and a limited number of spaces on the roster and on the field. What Boston pays for the most expensive free agent it's ever acquired in its history is a subject where baseball nerds care about the total salary and length of contract, because they have a large impact on what else the club will be able to do during that time, whether other free agents can be had or you have to stick with younger, cheaper assets when it comes to other roster moves. Can you keep Players X and Y once they near free agency if you're locked into 22 mil a year for Player Z? This IS a business.

Maybe your question was rhetorical but there's the obvious answer.

[dcmissle]

Exactly. The club is not a bottomless money pit, and every dollar directed to player A leaves a dollar less to spend on B through Z. One might think it's incredibly presumptuous and arrogant to second guess the FO in this fashion, but that's what fans do.

The Sox going to $200 MM for this guy would not surprise me. Indeed, a perfect storm may be forming that pushes them there before this is over.

This post has been edited by dcmissle: 15 December 2008 - 05:11 PM

[pdaj]

When the Angels publically stated that they offered Teixeira an 8 year deal in Vegas, what was their point of doing so? I thought that (maybe) they were letting their fans know that they made a strong, honest effort to sign the star, but that it apparently wasn't enough. It also makes me think that the offer was their best offer. Now, according to the the Washington Post, the deal totaled $160 million, and the Nationals are/were willing to give Teixeira the same deal to play in his hometown. From what it sounds like, the O's may have made similar offers but, perhaps, not quite reaching 8 years (yet). I'd also like to think that the Red Sox would be willing to match any of the offers currently stated.

So, what's the holdup? Is Boras trying to bridge the gap from $160 to $200 million? Hoping to stir a frenzy involving the Birds, Sox, and Yanks? That seems to be the case. But aside from the Yankees or Red Sox, what team is willing to pay that price? If I had to bet, I'd say the Yankees are out ... but what's the harm in helping boost the bidding? Make the Sox pay the ultimate cost?

And all while this is going on, Theo and Co. have remained cool and silent, so I stay hopeful. If I had to guess, I'd say the Red Sox and Boras/Tex compromise with an 8 year, $180 million agreement. That's 22.5 annually until he's 36. He'll have every chance to be successful and win a World Series. He'll be on the East Coast and close to home.

The only way I see him taking less (or the same) to play for the Orioles or Nationals, is if an opt-out is included. There's no way in hell Teixeira will allow himself to be stuck on a shitty team for that long without a potential out.

[Drek717]

pdaj, on Dec 15 2008, 06:11 PM, said:

When the Angels publically stated that they offered Teixeira an 8 year deal in Vegas, what was their point of doing so? I thought that (maybe) they were letting their fans know that they made a strong, honest effort to sign the star, but that it apparently wasn't enough. It also makes me think that the offer was their best offer.

That was Rosenthal's theory on XM's MLB morning show today.

Also that the Yanks are "legitimately" interested in that they'll be in it should it look like we're going to get a real nice deal. Otherwise probably not.

As of now it seems like Washington, Baltimore, and LAoA have priced themselves in the "8 years, $160M" bracket across the board. That is pretty reasonable. But I don't see why the Red Sox would splash the pot and go up $20M extra for no legitimate reason.

$5M? Sure. Maybe even $10M if the Yankees or someone else starts creeping up higher offers, but they aren't going to just throw money away to get the deal done sooner than later, because later works just as well as long as its before ST starts (and it will be).

[Corsi Combover]

pdaj, on Dec 15 2008, 05:11 PM, said:

When the Angels publically stated that they offered Teixeira an 8 year deal in Vegas, what was their point of doing so?

Quote

As one agent told me last Thursday as the meetings were breaking up, it is no coincidence that there is plenty of information out there about the offers from the Nationals and Orioles (and now the Angels as well), but virtually nothing about the ones from the Red Sox and Yankees -- or even if there have been offers at all. I want to be careful here, because I don't want to accuse anyone of anything, but let's just say teams like the Nationals and Orioles have less reason to protect the details of their offer than do teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.

We were able to nail down details of the Nationals' offer almost immediately, following the team's acknowledgment that one was made. And it served a purpose of sorts for the organization -- broadcasting to the industry and the fan base back home as to how serious ownership is about improving its product. Again, don't misunderstand: I'm not accusing the team of being insincere in its pursuit. Far from it. I've been told the Lerners very much want Teixeira in Washington. But it did not hurt the organization's interests to have the information out there, and in fact it may have helped in some regards.

Meantime, there are dozens of excellent reporters in Boston and New York -- and I have some sources with the Red Sox and Yankees, myself -- but there have been virtually no revelations about those teams's pursuits of Teixeira, only speculation about their respective degrees of interest. I would venture to say, again, that is no coincidence.

I certainly hope there is much more to follow on this story this week. And if there is, we'll be dropping it here first.

Source: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationals...ml?nav=rss_blog

[Punchado]

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that Boras' big money clients that are linked to the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels haven't signed yet.

[twoBshorty]

Quote

The courtship of Mark Teixeira is consuming a great deal of time and energy on Yawkey Way.

Should the Red Sox [team stats]eventually come out on top in the aggressive quest for the services of the gifted free agent first baseman, it will cost them an extraordinary, even historic, amount of money.

The Sox have made an offer, the biggest and longest yet for this current ownership group. The offer is believed to be for at least eight years, with ownership and baseball operations cognizant that Teixeira, 29, represents the safest bet they can make for at least this year and next to shore up the heart of an aging lineup.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/basebal...&position=3

[bsj]

Are we getting to the point where the Sox need to just make a take it or leave it type offer...possibly in the 8 year 172 million range (21.5 mill per year)? I have to think that the balance of the Sox off-season plans are being held somewhat in limbo by this.

[amarshal2]

twoBshorty, on Dec 16 2008, 03:21 AM, said:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/basebal...&position=3
The offer is believed to be for at least eight years, with ownership and baseball operations cognizant that Teixeira, 29, represents the safest bet they can make for at least this year and next to shore up the heart of an aging lineup.

There's nothing worse than using the baseball system of age accounting (which I can't stand under normal circumstances) in December for the coming season. How is the reader supposed to know if Mark is 29 today and turns 30 in the coming season or if he's curently 28 but because he turns 29 before June 1, he's already considered 29?

As of today, Mark Teixeira is 28.68 (base 10).

[someoneanywhere]

bsj, on Dec 16 2008, 09:22 AM, said:

Are we getting to the point where the Sox need to just make a take it or leave it type offer...possibly in the 8 year 172 million range (21.5 mill per year)? I have to think that the balance of the Sox off-season plans are being held somewhat in limbo by this.

I actually think not. Of all the major suitors, the Sox seem least affected by, and least worried about, limbo. They can go into 2009 with what they have (assuming they find a catcher, a decision which in any case is not [as far as we know] attached to the Tex signing). The only limboesque issue here is what to do with Youks/Lowell if Tex comes aboard -- and Lowell would be a ST deal any way. I would think that the other major players -- LAAA, Spanks -- would want and need to know before the Sox need to know. And that might play somewhat into the FO's hands, as it may serve to smoke out final offers from the others before the Sox have to finalize themselves.

I'm not sure, given the history (and the Sox desire to land him) that I would say "take it or leave it" to him. That might be the sort of thing that brings back Duke-era memories. Besides, Tex himself has said he wants to know (or would like to) by Christmas. That to me is as good a "deadline" as any to work with.

[dcmissle]

bsj, on Dec 16 2008, 09:22 AM, said:

Are we getting to the point where the Sox need to just make a take it or leave it type offer...possibly in the 8 year 172 million range (21.5 mill per year)? I have to think that the balance of the Sox off-season plans are being held somewhat in limbo by this.

But I see a successful resolution of this facilitating other off-season plans and specifically the search for a catcher who can hit. It's no secret that the lineup is thin and that Ortiz and Lowell present ??s. If this falls through, I imagine that would provide potential trading partners additional leverage.

[jayhoz]

bsj, on Dec 16 2008, 09:22 AM, said:

Are we getting to the point where the Sox need to just make a take it or leave it type offer...possibly in the 8 year 172 million range (21.5 mill per year)? I have to think that the balance of the Sox off-season plans are being held somewhat in limbo by this.

Take it or leave it ultimatums only work when you are actually willing to walk away from the deal. The yankees have looked foolish with their ultimatums of late.

Teixeira and Boras know that the Sox aren't going anywhere unless the years/$ become untenable for them.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't think the Sox need to make a take it or leave it offer. If they miss out on Teixeira, it's not as if they are moving on to another bat like Manny or Dunn. They don't have to get a big bat, they are just interested in Teixeira. Only reason to issue an ultimatum is if you feel your offer is being shopped or if it is holding up other deals you need to make. The moves the Sox need to make (C, shore up the bench, maybe another starter?) are independent of Teixeira. If they miss out on Teixeira, the best move is to hold on to their cash although it will piss some people off.

[Resonance Wright]

Giving an ultimatum because you want somebody to sign is a bad idea. You give an ultimatum if you either need them to sign now or need to move on. I know some people think that the Sox are in that situation, but they aren't.

We're all impatient and want the Sox to sign some monstrous catcher in addition to either signing Varitek for change or else pissing on his grave, and get bench players who would be good enough to start on some other team but will accept playing backup here for backup money, and maybe sign Lowe, in addition to signing Teixeira, but ST is a couple of months away. The Sox do not need Teixeira to sign now or sign elsewhere now. They don't need to pay $20-40 million more than the offers on the table either just to wrap it up. The Sox aren't a Steinbrenner outfit and Teixeira + $20-40 million worth of win shares from other players > Teixeira.

[Corsi Combover]

Sportscenter just reported that Teixeira is close to a decision. Didn't specify a timetable, however.