Fair enough - legit concern. Now let's talk about that contract Boras will be demanding. Where does the bidding start? 8 years at least at how much? $160MM? More? for a generational talent like Manny, that makes sense. But for a marginal upgrade like Tex who is simply in a group of guys who are among the best at the position? no thanks.
How do you label Teixeira a "marginal upgrade"? We're considering as a replcement to Lowell, not Youkilis, so I have toruble understanding how he is not a significant upgrade. Like a much younger, switch hitting, multiple GG winning, 50 points in OPS+ type upgrade. Other than Albert Pujols, I wonder who you would rather have at 1B for your team?
Of course, this is all just a waste of bandwidth talking about it b/c the Sox under Theo don't commit to those size/length contracts - you know this. Even if they did, would you want to use all your bullets on Tex? Why not Holliday instead, who is just as young but will produce more?
I know they haven't committed this kind of length/money to anyone yet. I know they took the position that Manny's conctract was an albatross that prevented desired flexibility. I know they then won 2 World Series despite that. So maybe they have changed their views? Or maybe they just never thought that Manny was worth it, given his defensive problems and his other issues. I also know they gave 5/$70 to JD Drew, which seems like more of a stretch than 8/$160 for Teixeira in my mind.
Holliday? How does he factor into this? LF is completely a different matter, one which also needs to be addressed long term. But making the commitment to him over Bay represents the "marginal upgrade" you so lament, only it would cost prospects as well, since he's not a FA. I also wonder how you have determined that Holliday "will produce more"? Now matter how much weight one puts in his Coors Field splits, the doubt alone makes it hard to determine he would leap frog his offensive superior in Teixeira , doesn't it?
If this were 2002/2003 and you could sign Tex to a Vlad Guerrero size contract, you'd have to seriously consider it. But it's not, so you are going to have to make a much more compelling argument than you have thus far that Tex is worth that kind of scratch for that length of time.
Great point. It's not 2002/2003. Vlad Guerrero contracts now go to JD Drew types.
The compelling argument is this:
The majority of the Sox major offensive players are either injury prone (Drew), aging (Varitek) or both (Lowell, Ortiz). Youkilis and Pedroia do not have the track record to count on them improving or even sustaining their level of production from this season. I think it would be fair to expect similar production from Bay. SS and CF are the unknown. This all likely results in a net decline offensively for 2009. It also means short of a major shakeup, the only places to counter that decline are at C and 1B/3B (an option because of Youks' versatility and Lowell's concerns). I think it fair to assume they won't be making moves at CF, SS, RF, 2B or DH.
Further, looking ahead to the FA crop after next season, the impact FAs available will be Holliday, Bay and an aging/hobbling Guerrero. Meaning if we don't take advantage of Teixeira being available, we're likely a.) looking at our team for the next 2 years (Bay vs. Holliday is a wash); b.) relying on prospects to come through; or c.) spending prospects in trade to stave off decline, when they could likely be used in a better manner.
Now, if you want to debate if Teixeira will earn
every penny of the contract he ends up with, I don't think that's one anyone can win, nor would I enter into to. But if you want to argue if he is worth
it to the Sox, then yes, I think he is; because I factor in things like opportunity, need and allocation of assets into that debate. If the Sox are moving prospects I want it for a catcher and for pitching. If the choice is ever between spending money or bodies, I hope they choose money.
I wonder if your opposition is a matter of principle or a fear that the contract will handcuff them sometime in the future?
Again, we are wasting time here b/c not only do the Yankees, O's and Angels need him more, they have all shown a willingness to commit stupid money for a guy who would be a real upgrade (or loss as the case may be). That's just not the Sox' style. While it may be a come down, I think it's far more likely that you see the likes of Ben Broussard, Casey Blake or Hank Blaylock here than you do Teixeira.
Ya, we probably are wasting time. They probably won't end up with Teixeira, but I sure hope it's not for lack of trying. Because I don't want to pin our hopes on the likes of Broussard or Blaylock. Nor should you.