712 replies to this topic

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Cafardo is on crack. There's no way Boras is looking for 5/$100 for Teixeira. Every number we've heard for him has been more like 8 years and more money than that. And there's probably 5 teams that would give him that as a starting point.

As you said, if that's what it takes, you do it in a cocaine heartbeat.

Youks? I don't think you trade him unless you get a crazy offer or you can sure up a problem spot in the process (read: C) with a sure thing. He's not that young anymore, but he's still cheap and even if his real numbers are somewhere between 2007 and 2008, he's worth more at 3B than 1B anyway.

Lowell? Sure, he's tradeable, but you either need to eat a lot of his salary or get low level crapshots back in return. Personally, I think it would be more than benificial to head into 2009 allowing Lowell to take his time recovering from his hip surgery. With the injury issues that Ortiz and Drew have shown recently, I don't think it's unreasonable that Drew/Ortiz/Teixeira/Youks/Lowell could rotate through the 1B/3B/DH/RF spots and get plenty of ABs.

Worst case scenario is that Lowell shows nothing and becomes a bench hand. Best case scenario is that he recovers and represents a serious trade chip at the deadline or when a contender has a big injury.

Either way, I think Teixeira should be the main goal of the FO this offseason. He represents the one player in FA that will allow the Sox to upgrade offensively. the prospects should be saved for other avenues (C, SP, deadline deals, etc.). All Teixeira will cost is money.

Edited by Papelbon's Poutine, 26 October 2008 - 01:28 AM.

[TomRicardo]

Either way, I think Teixeira should be the main goal of the FO this offseason. He represents the one player in FA that will allow the Sox to upgrade offensively. the prospects should be saved for other avenues (C, SP, deadline deals, etc.). All Teixeira will cost is money.

I hope not. Teixeira is an expensive upgrade and would not be as much of an upgrade as say getting a CC Sabathia. There is absolutely no way I am moving Youkilis for Teixeira. I would argue that Youkilis was a better player than Teixeira this year, nevermind the fact he costs far less. Unless the Red Sox decide to completely give up on Lowell, which would be yet another costly sunken contract, I can't see them going after Teixeira. Teixeira is not in the top three for my free agent wish list. I could see an argument where Derek Lowe would be a more valuable pick up.

[TheoShmeo]

Unless the Red Sox decide to completely give up on Lowell, which would be yet another costly sunken contract, I can't see them going after Teixeira.

Why can't the Sox put Teixeira on first and Youks on third, and, if Ortiz and Lowell are both healthy and ready to play when the season starts, let Tito figure out a way to get them playing time?

This past season was an object lesson in the points that (1) that the starting nine who begin the season wont necessarily be the same starting nine who finishes the season, (2) veterans are going to suffer a fair amount of injuries aloing the way and (3) the Red Sox badly need better offense off the bench. As to the last point, the fact that Tito really didn't have a good right handed pinch hitting option in the ninth of ALCS game 7 for Jason Varitek is a vivid reminder that the Sox could benefit from better pinch hitting depth.

I well understand that it would be highly unusual to start the season with someone like Mike Lowell or David Ortiz on the bench. Veterans of their stature, with their price tags, wouldn't take kindly to that. But so what? The Sox would be a better team with Teixeira and Youks at the corners and the depth that Lowell and Ortiz would provide them at DH/PH. And if it really becomes a distraction, the Sox could always audible and deal Lowell or even Ortiz (shudder).

As to pitching, I see Sabathia as the ultimate bad body type pitcher whose contract and body will look heavily bloated during the latter half of his deal, and I can't see the Sox giving Lowe the $13-15 mm he'll likely be offered from someone for years 3-4 of his contract given his age.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 26 October 2008 - 07:10 AM.

[Mugsys Jock]

It's not a good enough reason to go out and drop 7/150 on Teixeira, but one thing in the mix is that he'd be a great fit for the MFYs, and I'd really rather not see him in pinstripes. Good fielding switch-hitting 1B that hits behind A-Rod... yow... If I'm the Yankees, I think they get more out of him than even CC>

And Anaheim really has to go back to the drawing board if he leaves LAAAA as well.

[Lynchie]

Teixeira, he's what 28 years old? To sign him through 36 seems like not an excessive stretch. With Lowell being a question mark post surgery and the way Youk still plays his native position I'd do it if at all possible. You then have good options to give Papi a break now and then too. Papi has been super human and can't continue the pace he was on. Now with the wrist, who knows? This signing would be a solid one to keep this team on track. I'd say you get in the chase for him and stay there. He would do more for the Sox than A-Rod would have. Ya, this is my guy this year. The cream of the crop, at the right age with the right make up to be successful on this team.

[Lynchie]

I hope not. Teixeira is an expensive upgrade and would not be as much of an upgrade as say getting a CC Sabathia. There is absolutely no way I am moving Youkilis for Teixeira. I would argue that Youkilis was a better player than Teixeira this year, nevermind the fact he costs far less. Unless the Red Sox decide to completely give up on Lowell, which would be yet another costly sunken contract, I can't see them going after Teixeira. Teixeira is not in the top three for my free agent wish list. I could see an argument where Derek Lowe would be a more valuable pick up.

The thing that concerns me about CC is the amount of innings he pitched. He was a tremendous pitcher and that cannot be denied. Given his age and the way Tito uses pitchers he will probably be just fine. If he was a few years older I'd be more leery of the innings. My previous post regarding Teixeira explains how I feel about him so I'll not gush any more here. D-Lowe, gee I don't know about that one. Depending how things fall it may make sense. This is a good crop of FAs for this team to re-tool key areas.

[sfip]

I've mentioned it before, but since there's a thread on this I'll say it again. The Sox won't get Teixeira. Here's why.

[Quintanariffic]

It makes absolutely no sense to sign Tex. None. He would represent a modest upgrade, if at all, to the current incumbent, yet at 5x the price. And he would also block the Red Sox best power prospect in a generation in Lars Anderson. The FA season isn't some sort of X-Mas shopping list where you want to pick up cute baubles b/c they're "nice". You use FA to fill real needs, and corner IF is clearly not one of them, at least not for the 8 years and $150MM it's actually going to take instead of dumb ass Cafardo's NYYfans-esque speculation.

[HomeRunBaker]

It makes absolutely no sense to sign Tex. None. He would represent a modest upgrade, if at all, to the current incumbent, yet at 5x the price. And he would also block the Red Sox best power prospect in a generation in Lars Anderson. The FA season isn't some sort of X-Mas shopping list where you want to pick up cute baubles b/c they're "nice". You use FA to fill real needs, and corner IF is clearly not one of them, at least not for the 8 years and $150MM it's actually going to take instead of dumb ass Cafardo's NYYfans-esque speculation.

I disagree that Tex is a modest upgrade at a corner position after watching our World Series hopes die each time Mark Kotsay came to the plate. One cannot assume Mike Lowell is going to be fine next season although if you do feel this way i understand your premise......i don't think that would be a wise assumption however. Having a corner IF of Tex and Youks is the best in the game and as another poster mentioned, would increase the value of Youks playing that position.

In this scenario we have a major trade chip in Anderson which is only leveraging ourselves to take advantage of trade opportunities that may come down the road.

Worst case scenario is that Lowell shows nothing and becomes a bench hand. Best case scenario is that he recovers and represents a serious trade chip at the deadline or when a contender has a big injury.

Weird that we were saying the exact same thing a couple of years ago when we first acquired Lowell. In my Tex/Youks corner IF scenario we then have Lowell as insurance to another Papi injury or anything freakish occuring to Tex/Youks prior to moving him.

[SoxVindaloo]

I agree that Lowell is not a reason not to pursue an infield bat--but getting serious about Teixeira brings other issues into play.
When Theo built the team in 03 and 04 he assembled corner infield and DH type bats for low $$ then threw them all against the wall to see what fit. When Giambi failed enter Ortiz. Granted there is not much chance Teixeira will fall on his face but do we want to get into another 7-8 year deal at $15-20 per? If it is in fact 5/100 you do that easily, Lars be damned. But recent history suggests that will not come close to getting it done.
What is the consensus here on what it would take to sign Hank Blaylock? Even if it was 3/15--which seems high--wouldn't that be a better use of resources so we could save our bullets for pitching?
Caveat--if much of this discussion is fueled a fear that Big Papi is toast then I would agree that we need an impact bat for the middle of the lineup, almost irrespective of the costs involved.

Edited by SoxVindaloo, 26 October 2008 - 11:58 AM.

[PedroKsBambino]

I've mentioned it before, but since there's a thread on this I'll say it again. The Sox won't get Teixeira. Here's why.

I don't see the point in citing offsite to something, but even if doing so I don't think that argument is really that compelling, anyway.

First of all, on any given situation, the Red Sox and Yankees both have enough money to outbid the other. The Yankees overall payroll no doubt can be higher, but right now they also have more needs to fill. So, it is simply wrong to say that the Yankees will necessarily be able and willing to outbid the Sox on any given player. Might they actually do so? Sure. Is it a sure thing, if the Sox truly decide to do what it takes? Absoutely not.

Second, there are two sides to a deal. Granted, most of the time most players (especially Boras clients) tend to take the biggest contract. But at the point where two teams are willing to match or close to match each others offers it may come down to other things. Maybe that cuts towards Tex staying in ANA, or going to NY, or going to the Orioles, or the Sox. But while money is a huge, and often predominate, factor it also isn't the only thing going on.

I say this as someone who isn't sure that Tex is a realistic/viable guy for the Sox to get since Lowell's deal is still on the books, btw.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

This is an absolute no-brainer and all it really costs the Sox is something they have in abundance - money.

Long term contracts are almost always bad deals unless you happen across a player who is as young and talented as Teixeira. Put him at first, Youkilis at third and move Lowell for whatever they can get for him. The Sox get younger, better offensively and keep a guy who, as Mugsy points out, is a perfect fit for the Yankees away from a division rival.

And just for emphasis, the getting younger part is huge - while its not clear that Varitek, Ortiz, Lowell and perhaps even Drew were starting to show their age, its a safe bet that some of their performance and injury woes were a result of father time catching up with them. A move like this would give the Sox a smooth transition from Lowell and lessen the impact of Ortiz' inevitable decline.

[The Boomer]

I don't see the point in citing offsite to something, but even if doing so I don't think that argument is really that compelling, anyway.

First of all, on any given situation, the Red Sox and Yankees both have enough money to outbid the other. The Yankees overall payroll no doubt can be higher, but right now they also have more needs to fill. So, it is simply wrong to say that the Yankees will necessarily be able and willing to outbid the Sox on any given player. Might they actually do so? Sure. Is it a sure thing, if the Sox truly decide to do what it takes? Absoutely not.

Second, there are two sides to a deal. Granted, most of the time most players (especially Boras clients) tend to take the biggest contract. But at the point where two teams are willing to match or close to match each others offers it may come down to other things. Maybe that cuts towards Tex staying in ANA, or going to NY, or going to the Orioles, or the Sox. But while money is a huge, and often predominate, factor it also isn't the only thing going on.

I say this as someone who isn't sure that Tex is a realistic/viable guy for the Sox to get since Lowell's deal is still on the books, btw.

Unless he converts to a fulltime catcher, I would pass on Tex. After the Sox whiffed on him as a signability draft selection who was picked several rounds after he should have been (because Boras was advising him) during the Days of Duquette, the Sox hit one out of the park when they connected with Lars Andersen more recently in the same draft scenario. Anderson should be up with the Sox for good not later than 2010 (maybe even some time next season) and won't cost Angels 1Bman whose name I can't spell type money for another 6 years after that. Andersen will be the most cost effective player on the Sox after he comes up until the Sox decide to buy up some of his arbitration and free agent years. If the Sox are to sink money into anything (perhaps even overpay), it will be at catcher. The three B's: Buchholz, Bowden and Bard will be next year's cost effective additions to the pitching staff. With a few such bargains sprinkled throughout the lineup and pitching staff, management is more likely to try to sign Youks, Paps and Pedroia to extensions before free agency.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

If the Sox are to sink money into anything (perhaps even overpay), it will be at catcher. The three B's: Buchholz, Bowden and Bard will be next year's cost effective additions to the pitching staff. With a few such bargains sprinkled throughout the lineup and pitching staff, management is more likely to try to sign Youks, Paps and Pedroia to extensions before free agency.

I agree that the Sox biggest need is catcher but the truth is, the pickings are slim. There are simply no decent FA catchers available to fill the void and so no need to overpay. I would argue the Sox next biggest need is a young proven bat in the middle of the order. Teixeira fills that perfectly.


edit: Just for the record, SJH did not hijack my account.

Edited by Jack Brohammer Experience, 26 October 2008 - 12:13 PM.

[Quintanariffic]

I disagree that Tex is a modest upgrade at a corner position after watching our World Series hopes die each time Mark Kotsay came to the plate. One cannot assume Mike Lowell is going to be fine next season although if you do feel this way i understand your premise......i don't think that would be a wise assumption however. Having a corner IF of Tex and Youks is the best in the game and as another poster mentioned, would increase the value of Youks playing that position.

But that is my premise. I'd like someone to explain to me why a labrum tear in the hip represents some sort of typical injury for an aging player. Has anyone hear who hasn't attended medical school even heard of such a thing? I submit that it's unlikely, b/c it's such a rare occurrence. I said it in another thread, but I don't think Lowell's hip injury is any more predictive of his future health than Schill's broken hand and apendectomy in 2002 were. This sort of team building premise, where you collect a menagerie of the finest talents available on the market is EXACTLY what drove the Yankees into a postseason also-ran. If you really want to get younger, how about you wait a season for a 22 year old Anderson to be ML ready for the league minimum. In the interim, take a flyer on cheaper corner options out there with upside vs. a Mark Kotsay - that's not exactly a high bar.

In this scenario we have a major trade chip in Anderson which is only leveraging ourselves to take advantage of trade opportunities that may come down the road. Weird that we were saying the exact same thing a couple of years ago when we first acquired Lowell. In my Tex/Youks corner IF scenario we then have Lowell as insurance to another Papi injury or anything freakish occuring to Tex/Youks prior to moving him.

While everyone is theoretically available, guys like Anderson, with plus plate discipline, plus plus make up, and natural opposite field power as a LHH are EXACTLY the type of players the Sox should be deciding to keep until and unless he proves otherwise in AA and AAA this year. Have you seen the list templeUSox put together of the sorts of players with his production at his age in AA over the last 15 years? It's littered with stars and solid players, giving you a feel for the sort of comps you should expect. Lowell isn't just going to sit on the bench waiting for an injury to befall Papi, Youk or Tex. That's just not going to happen, so we should stop speculating about it here. SoxVindaloo has bingo where he advocates trying to stockpile under the radar corner IF guys who have fallen out of favor for whatever reason - Blalock being an example.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

It makes absolutely no sense to sign Tex. None. He would represent a modest upgrade, if at all, to the current incumbent, yet at 5x the price. And he would also block the Red Sox best power prospect in a generation in Lars Anderson.

Maybe I'm just overly worried about Lowell, but I don't feel comfortable relying on him to be ready to put up his 2007 numebrs next year. And even if here were, Teixeira would still provide a significant upgrade over that production.

Also, I'm as excited by Anderson as the next guy, but let's not forget that he is 21 years old and has had all of 133 ABs above A ball. I think it a bit premature to assume he will be ready to take over 1B and the 4 hole in 2010 or even 2011. If the Sox hold off making moves on the corner so that they don't block him, what then if he suffer some setbacks, as most prospects do at one point or another? In adition, we're probably going to have a hole at DH to fill after either 2010 or 2011. So I disagree that signing Teixeira would be blocking Anderson at all.

The FA season isn't some sort of X-Mas shopping list where you want to pick up cute baubles b/c they're "nice". You use FA to fill real needs, and corner IF is clearly not one of them, at least not for the 8 years and $150MM it's actually going to take instead of dumb ass Cafardo's NYYfans-esque speculation.

So what are the Sox real needs then? Bullpen help? Bench help? Should they restrict their FA interest to that? There biggest need is obviously a C, but FA won't help them there. I would argue that two real needs they have heading into the offseason are a SP and a power bat. I also think corner IF is a clear concern - maybe not a need, but a concern. This isn't about Teixeira being "nice". It's about him being a true impact player that covers two of those concerns.

The other thing to factor in is take a look at who will be the free agents after 2009. The only significant bats there are Holliday, Bay and Guerrero, all OFs (and one of which we'll need to sign as wel). If the Sox don't jump on this chance, they will be relying on prospects (either through promotion or trade) to provide them with a significant offensive addition over the next few years.

They very well may not go hard after Teixeira, but we've know Henry prefers to spend money than trade prospects. We know Theo think the FA pitching amrket is inefficient. We also know they have roughly $40-$50M coming free. I think Teixeira makes a lot of sense.

[grantb]

Everyone knows I want Teixeira on the team because he can hit cleanup better than anyone else on the Red Sox right now. I don't feel that he would be only a small marginal upgrade over a recovering or injury plagued Lowell.
Other than that, all I have to say is that I find it is ridiculous to say that Teixeira should not be signed because of Lars - he is still a very young prospect and there is no guarantee that he will make the transition to the major leagues effectively. Teixeira is a proven top major league player (American League too, if you want to argue differences in leagues). For the record, Lars is not a Gold Glove first baseman either.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

But that is my premise. I'd like someone to explain to me why a labrum tear in the hip represents some sort of typical injury for an aging player. Has anyone hear who hasn't attended medical school even heard of such a thing? I submit that it's unlikely, b/c it's such a rare occurrence. I said it in another thread, but I don't think Lowell's hip injury is any more predictive of his future health than Schill's broken hand and apendectomy in 2002 were. This sort of team building premise, where you collect a menagerie of the finest talents available on the market is EXACTLY what drove the Yankees into a postseason also-ran. If you really want to get younger, how about you wait a season for a 22 year old Anderson to be ML ready for the league minimum. In the interim, take a flyer on cheaper corner options out there with upside vs. a Mark Kotsay - that's not exactly a high bar.

Wouldn't a rare injury, with no real track record of recovery, worry you more?

And no I'm not a doctor, but how do you compare a torn hip labrum with an appendectomy? A joint injury to a professional athlete is probably more problamatic than having a vestigial organ removed, no? This comparison is ludicrous.

[sfip]

I don't see the point in citing offsite to something, but even if doing so I don't think that argument is really that compelling, anyway.

The point in citing offsite is the reason I started the blog that's in my sig, so people (not just I, which is why I don't just save the blog entries in Word to copy and paste) don't have to type the same thing over and over again in response to a frequently mentioned argument that they or I disagree with.

First of all, on any given situation, the Red Sox and Yankees both have enough money to outbid the other. The Yankees overall payroll no doubt can be higher, but right now they also have more needs to fill. So, it is simply wrong to say that the Yankees will necessarily be able and willing to outbid the Sox on any given player. Might they actually do so? Sure. Is it a sure thing, if the Sox truly decide to do what it takes? Absoutely not.

Second, there are two sides to a deal. Granted, most of the time most players (especially Boras clients) tend to take the biggest contract. But at the point where two teams are willing to match or close to match each others offers it may come down to other things. Maybe that cuts towards Tex staying in ANA, or going to NY, or going to the Orioles, or the Sox. But while money is a huge, and often predominate, factor it also isn't the only thing going on.

I say this as someone who isn't sure that Tex is a realistic/viable guy for the Sox to get since Lowell's deal is still on the books, btw.

For your first point, as I've mentioned in another blog entry:

The question regarding whether the Red Sox can afford to sign a player (or as you said, have enough money to outbid the other) is only legitimate if they can afford it within the budget they set for the team payroll. It's the ownership's team and they have a right to set the budget how they want. It's not like they don't set their budget high enough to be competitive.

The Yankees have more needs to fill, but they also have a ton of money coming off the books, and they're opening a new stadium. Even besides that, it's tough to think of a time they had an interest and starting spot available for a free agent and they let Boston sign that free agent.

Examples of free agents the Sox were able to sign when the Yankees had either no interest or starting spot available:
Okajima: It's been said that Cashman wasn't interested in Okajima, though it's now tough to Google to find that.
Ortiz: Steinbrenner wanted Ortiz when he was first available, but the Yankees had Nick Johnson and Jason Giambi.
Manny: The Yankees had O'Neill in RF and Knoblauch in LF. They would have had no spot for Knoblauch had they signed Manny.

For your second point, yes there are two sides to a deal. In the blog entry to which you responded, I mentioned that Teixeira might not be a Yankee, and I used Vlad and Beltran as past examples. But you can be sure the Yankees won't let Teixeira sign with Boston.

Edited by sfip, 26 October 2008 - 12:59 PM.

[koufax32]

Tex is a marginal or small upgrade over 2007 Mike Lowell. Even if he fully recovers from pretty serious surgery I find it hard to believe he will ever produce at that pace again. That doesn't mean he's a bad player it just looks like a classic case of a career year skewing the numbers.

[rembrat]

I'm with the anti - sign Tex people on this one. Not because I hate Scott Boras, or hate spending money out of the fear that the Sox will become the Yankees (oh noeezz a winning franchise!) but, because he really doesn't cover a need right now. The result of signing that guy whose name is really hard to spell is sending Youkilis across the diamond. Something I'm not in favor of. If Bill James' defensive spectrum is to be believed, that would be moving from left to right, not a lot of baseball players can do that well. More questions: How sure are we that Youkilis can handle playing 3B for 130-140 games a year? Will it affect his offense? SoxProspects.com labels him as being an adequate 3B in the minors but how much has that regressed now that he is going to be 30 years old?

I can't see the FO making a move like this unless they answer these questions first, not to mention the ones that can be asked for Lowell. I don't think it's a no-brainer at all.

[yecul]

In what way does he not fill a need? In the way that people expect Lowell to be healthy and put up good production going forward or in the way that they see the non-Lowell options (Casey, Kotsay, Lowrie) as being sufficient?

They made a mistake in keeping Lowell. There is no need to stick to a bad decision simply because it's been made.

The only question is whether Youkilis can be expected to handle 3B for a full season and into his 30s.

There are plenty of reasons to not sign Teixeira, but Boston not having a need isn't one of them.

[Quintanariffic]

Everyone knows I want Teixeira on the team because he can hit cleanup better than anyone else on the Red Sox right now. I don't feel that he would be only a small marginal upgrade over a recovering or injury plagued Lowell.
Other than that, all I have to say is that I find it is ridiculous to say that Teixeira should not be signed because of Lars - he is still a very young prospect and there is no guarantee that he will make the transition to the major leagues effectively. Teixeira is a proven top major league player (American League too, if you want to argue differences in leagues). For the record, Lars is not a Gold Glove first baseman either.

Feel free to argue against straw men on your own time, but don't waste mine. Lars is a factor, but not THE factor, and no one has said otherwise.

[Quintanariffic]

Wouldn't a rare injury, with no real track record of recovery, worry you more?

And no I'm not a doctor, but how do you compare a torn hip labrum with an appendectomy? A joint injury to a professional athlete is probably more problamatic than having a vestigial organ removed, no? This comparison is ludicrous.

Does the labral tear in the hip have no real track record of recovery though? just b/c it's not in the baseball injury lingua franca doesn't mean it doesn't have some sort of track record in the real world. Perhaps it would be better for both of us to stop speculating and wait for a doctor to weigh in. Regardless, what's ludicrous, and what I've been pushing back against is the notion that this injury was some sort of typical sign of an aging athlete. I just don't see the data to make a case for that argument, which is why I was comparing it to the apendectomy. Surely we can dispense with the "ludicrous" hyperbole and realize that this isn't some sort of typical muscle or ligament tear where we give a knowing nod and say "yeah, he's getting old". I'll admit that is raises concerns as well due to its rarity, but this isn't necessarily a sign of things to come.

[scotian1]

Anytime that you have a chance to improve your team at any position and you can afford to, you should. Is Youkilis a good first baseman, of course he is but Teixeira is a better one? Do the deal. If Lowell does not recover play him at third or use him as part of a deal to acquire pitching.

[rembrat]

Do you not watch the Red Sox? First off, Youkilis has improved his defense so much since he was in the minor leagues that it's not even funny. I couldn't care less what SoxProspects has to say about his defense when he was a minor leaguer. Also, anyone with two functioning eyes could tell you that he's an above-average defender at 3B. He moved over there in the postseason and didn't miss a beat. He came up through the system as a 3B. It's not as if he's never played a full season there before.

Youkilis moving to 3B is not an issue at all, IMO.

That's the thing, since 2006 (not counting the postseason), he has only played at 3B in 65 games, that's 452 innings. Basically that's nothing. Or not enough of a viewing that would make me feel comfortable in him handling 3B for a full year and it not hurting his offense. What was one of the biggest complaints about Youkilis prior to this season? The dreaded second half slide. So, what, one year of awesomeness has totally erased this from our minds? Everyone knows that 3B is a lot more demanding a position than 1B.

I'll admit that I think Lowell can bounce back from his hip injury to be an above average 3B in both the field and the batters box. It's probably why I don't see signing Tex as a necessity.

(Oh and the only reason I cited soxprospects.com is because I didn't have a mental note of Youkilis defense at 3B in the minors, hopefully other people can chime in on this topic)

[SoxFanSince57]

I am "all in" on getting Teixeira.

For those who would prefer to stand pat, I would appreciate your thoughts on what the Sox will do offensively next year. IMO, the '08 line up is going to show a decline in '09 if changes are not made. I believe that Teixeira is the team's best hope of getting younger and stronger for the long run. I cannot see the Sox winning the WS or perhaps even making the post season unless they improve the make up of their offense.

If the Sox do not get a very strong bat added to the line up this winter, there will be a lot more pressure on upgrading the pitching staff. IMO, Masterson/Buchholz and Wake are okay only if the offense gets better. I would rather spend the Sox money on a elite young hitter than on an elite pitcher who will demand too many years (CC).

The Rays have a very solid young team with LOADS of pitching talent on the roster and in the minors. The longer the Sox stand pat and get older the harder it will be to catch up. I also think the MFY will try like hell to acquire Teixeira and CC. If that happens the Sox could well be looking up from third place next fall.

[KenTremendous]

I suspect that this debate will end shortly after Boras's asking price leaks. Because it's going to be insane. I imagine we're talking 10/275m or something. 8/200 is probably where he ends up, but there's simply no way this isn't an 8- or 10-year deal for less than $20m. per. When you further consider that you're then talking about subsidizing a balky-hipped 35 year-old Mike Lowell to play somewhere else (let's be honest -- you can't have that guy on the bench), let's toss in $15-20 million of dead money to the Braves (or whomever), and blocking Anderson, and not addressing the catcher situation, this starts to seem kooky.

It's not any one of these things -- cost, length, Anderson, catcher, Lowell, Boras -- it's all of them together.

I see one avenue that makes any kind of sense. Offer a short contract for ridiculous money -- 4/120? -- and let Boras take Tex back onto the market when he's 32/33. You'd still have the Lowell/Youk problem, but at least you wouldn't be locked into a risky, endless deal that doesn't address a lot of the other issues on the team.

[Edited because I used the word "insane" three times, which bothered me when I re-read it.]

Edited by KenTremendous, 26 October 2008 - 02:27 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Do you not watch the Red Sox? First off, Youkilis has improved his defense so much since he was in the minor leagues that it's not even funny. I couldn't care less what SoxProspects has to say about his defense when he was a minor leaguer. Also, anyone with two functioning eyes could tell you that he's an above-average defender at 3B. He moved over there in the postseason and didn't miss a beat. He came up through the system as a 3B. It's not as if he's never played a full season there before.

Youkilis moving to 3B is not an issue at all, IMO.

I was a little troubled by his throwing at 3B this year. Did he always have that Chad Bradford throwing style? It didn't look familiar to me, and it seemed that many of his throws ballooned a little bit. Admittedly, they were nearly always in time, but they often didn't look like they had a lot on them.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

For those who would prefer to stand pat, I would appreciate your thoughts on what the Sox will do offensively next year. IMO, the '08 line up is going to show a decline in '09 if changes are not made. I believe that Teixeira is the team's best hope of getting younger and stronger for the long run. I cannot see the Sox winning the WS or perhaps even making the post season unless they improve the make up of their offense.

If the Sox do not get a very strong bat added to the line up this winter, there will be a lot more pressure on upgrading the pitching staff. IMO, Masterson/Buchholz and Wake are okay only if the offense gets better. I would rather spend the Sox money on a elite young hitter than on an elite pitcher who will demand too many years (CC).

The Rays have a very solid young team with LOADS of pitching talent on the roster and in the minors. The longer the Sox stand pat and get older the harder it will be to catch up. I also think the MFY will try like hell to acquire Teixeira and CC. If that happens the Sox could well be looking up from third place next fall.

I would expect the Sox to be a top three offensive club next year, without signing Teixeira. Why? Because I expect that there will be overall upgrades to the production from OF, SS, and C. I do not expect that Tek will be back as anything other than a backup. I do not expect Lugo to play another inning of SS for the Sox, but for Lowrie to improve as LHH. I do expect a .900 OPS season from Papi once his wrist gets a chance to heal. And I expect that CF will improve over last year.

There will be excellent OBP skills from lineup positions 1-6 [I assume it will be Pedroia, Drew, Youkilis, Ortiz, Bay, and Lowrie] even without an "upgrade". And very good expected slugging at slots 2-5. Spots 7-9 can be average or slightly better, but that would not be a decline from this past year's production. I also assume Lowell will bat 7th and that the CF whether Ellsbury or Crisp bats ninth as a secondary leadoff man. So, either Tek's replacement is okay and bats eighth, or Theo pulls some trade magic out of his hat and gets a stud who can switch places with Lowrie. Either way, I would expect about 875-900 runs, a .360 OBP, and top four or so slugging percentage. That's good enough...as long as the pitching is, too.

Let the Mets, Mariners, Angels, Giants, Orioles, and Yankees figure out who gets to land him, because they've all got some cash and a potential hole at 1B. The Sox have one but not the other. I'd rather Theo focus on landing another 2/3/4 starter, getting the binkies off the bench, and prying loose a long-term solution at C.

2008 Red Sox offense by AL position OPS

Position	AL Rank	AVG	OBP	SLG	XBH	HR	Sox OPS	AL average OPS	Difference
DH	2	.273	.379	.490	69	29	.869	.775	+.094
C	13	.218	.308	.342	42	14	.650	.715	.065-
1B	T-1	.312	.382	.519	74	25	.901	.793	+.108
2B	1	.321	.371	.484	75	17	.854	.749	+.105
3B	3	.281	.351	.473	71	24	.824	.768	+.056
SS	5	.268	.358	.360	43	2	.718	.694	+.028
LF	3	.284	.357	.458	62	24	.815	.766	+.049
CF	4	.291	.356	.432	54	13	.788	.746	+.042
RF	5	.272	.369	.465	65	23	.834	.810	+.024

[edited to add table -- and yes I was surprised to see the Sox had top-5 CF production in 2008, but that was because Jacoby only sucked when playing left or right field]

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 26 October 2008 - 04:22 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Does the labral tear in the hip have no real track record of recovery though? just b/c it's not in the baseball injury lingua franca doesn't mean it doesn't have some sort of track record in the real world. Perhaps it would be better for both of us to stop speculating and wait for a doctor to weigh in. Regardless, what's ludicrous, and what I've been pushing back against is the notion that this injury was some sort of typical sign of an aging athlete. I just don't see the data to make a case for that argument, which is why I was comparing it to the apendectomy. Surely we can dispense with the "ludicrous" hyperbole and realize that this isn't some sort of typical muscle or ligament tear where we give a knowing nod and say "yeah, he's getting old". I'll admit that is raises concerns as well due to its rarity, but this isn't necessarily a sign of things to come.

OK, I guess I misunderstood your reason for citing the appendix. But I also think you're misunderstanding my reason for citing the hip.

If your point is that, like an appendix bursting or a bone breaking, the hip injury is an isolated event and is a "freak" injury and not the result of some underlying condition or general aging, then ok, I can see that. I don't necessarily agree, but that's a fair comparison.

While I won't speak for others, my concern is his recovery. I'm concerned that he will be ready and able to resume as the player we need for the next two years.

I called your comparison ludicrous because I see this injury has having repercussions for next season, as I would any serious joint injury to an athlete, regardless of their age (which certianly doesn't help the situaiton), whereas I didn't see the correlation to an appendix or a broken hand.

As far as a doctor weighing in, daverobertsshoes did weigh in in the original Mike Lowell Injury thread:

I didn't click on the links, but here's my take on things - labrum surgery for the hip is a whole different scenario from labrum surgery for the shoulder. While labral surgery in the shoulder is a huge undertaking for a throwing athlete and can be a career-ender for some pitchers, labral surgery in the hip does not carry with it such grave implications. As has been previously stated in this thread, if Lowell has his hip scoped soon after the season ends (hopefully in early November...) he should be more or less full speed by the beginning of March.

The main question in my mind is, what is the status of the rest of his hip? The labrum is a ring of cartilage around the socket, and tears in the labrum can be quite painful. My main concern is that in a guy his age, labral tears are often part of a larger picture of early (or not-so-early) arthritis of the hip. Given what we have heard about Lowell's hip from rumors and the press, I think there is a good chance that he has some not insignificant degenerative changes in his hip, which is not something that tends to get a lot better with a hip scope. This is something that could bother him for the balance of his contract, unfortunately.

Now, I read that and I think of Albert Belle. Quite possibly an overreaction, but a genuine concern. We know Lowell had bone spurs shaved while they were in there, so one would think there's more to it than an isolated, freak occurence.

[Quintanariffic]

Now, I read that and I think of Albert Belle. Quite possibly an overreaction, but a genuine concern. We know Lowell had bone spurs shaved while they were in there, so one would think there's more to it than an isolated, freak occurence.

Fair enough - legit concern. Now let's talk about that contract Boras will be demanding. Where does the bidding start? 8 years at least at how much? $160MM? More? for a generational talent like Manny, that makes sense. But for a marginal upgrade like Tex who is simply in a group of guys who are among the best at the position? no thanks. Of course, this is all just a waste of bandwidth talking about it b/c the Sox under Theo don't commit to those size/length contracts - you know this. Even if they did, would you want to use all your bullets on Tex? Why not Holliday instead, who is just as young but will produce more? If this were 2002/2003 and you could sign Tex to a Vlad Guerrero size contract, you'd have to seriously consider it. But it's not, so you are going to have to make a much more compelling argument than you have thus far that Tex is worth that kind of scratch for that length of time.

Again, we are wasting time here b/c not only do the Yankees, O's and Angels need him more, they have all shown a willingness to commit stupid money for a guy who would be a real upgrade (or loss as the case may be). That's just not the Sox' style. While it may be a come down, I think it's far more likely that you see the likes of Ben Broussard, Casey Blake or Hank Blaylock here than you do Teixeira.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 26 October 2008 - 03:38 PM.

[Harry Hooper]

In order for the offense to be effective in 2009, Lowell has to be A) healthy and B) a productive bat in the lineup. What are the odds?

I'll peg the odds of A are 70%, and the odds of B are 70% as well.

The math says 0.7 * 0.7 = 0.49.

So, counting on Lowell is a 50-50 proposition. I'm not thrilled with a coin flip for a team with the resources the Sox have.


Addendum: This doesn't mean Lowell must be moved, but the risk of staying with him has to be hedged by significant offensive upgrades elsewhere, which don't appear to be on the roster (I have Ortiz as neutral - decent chance of a bounceback year but also decent chance of continuing issues).

Edited by Harry Hooper, 26 October 2008 - 04:49 PM.

[Eric Van]

That's the thing, since 2006 (not counting the postseason), he has only played at 3B in 65 games, that's 452 innings. Basically that's nothing. Or not enough of a viewing that would make me feel comfortable in him handling 3B for a full year and it not hurting his offense. What was one of the biggest complaints about Youkilis prior to this season? The dreaded second half slide. So, what, one year of awesomeness has totally erased this from our minds? Everyone knows that 3B is a lot more demanding a position than 1B.

You know, there are these funny things called "statistics" (sometimes "data" or even "facts") that can be looked at to answer questions like these. For instance, in a case like this, you might look at these "facts" and discover that there has never been an MLB season where he didn't hit better as a 3B than a 1B.

There is no overall pattern to guys hitting better or worse when they move to an easier or harder position. There may be a pattern of guys hitting worse at the position they are less experienced at.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Fair enough - legit concern. Now let's talk about that contract Boras will be demanding. Where does the bidding start? 8 years at least at how much? $160MM? More? for a generational talent like Manny, that makes sense. But for a marginal upgrade like Tex who is simply in a group of guys who are among the best at the position? no thanks.

How do you label Teixeira a "marginal upgrade"? We're considering as a replcement to Lowell, not Youkilis, so I have toruble understanding how he is not a significant upgrade. Like a much younger, switch hitting, multiple GG winning, 50 points in OPS+ type upgrade. Other than Albert Pujols, I wonder who you would rather have at 1B for your team?

Of course, this is all just a waste of bandwidth talking about it b/c the Sox under Theo don't commit to those size/length contracts - you know this. Even if they did, would you want to use all your bullets on Tex? Why not Holliday instead, who is just as young but will produce more?

I know they haven't committed this kind of length/money to anyone yet. I know they took the position that Manny's conctract was an albatross that prevented desired flexibility. I know they then won 2 World Series despite that. So maybe they have changed their views? Or maybe they just never thought that Manny was worth it, given his defensive problems and his other issues. I also know they gave 5/$70 to JD Drew, which seems like more of a stretch than 8/$160 for Teixeira in my mind.

Holliday? How does he factor into this? LF is completely a different matter, one which also needs to be addressed long term. But making the commitment to him over Bay represents the "marginal upgrade" you so lament, only it would cost prospects as well, since he's not a FA. I also wonder how you have determined that Holliday "will produce more"? Now matter how much weight one puts in his Coors Field splits, the doubt alone makes it hard to determine he would leap frog his offensive superior in Teixeira , doesn't it?

If this were 2002/2003 and you could sign Tex to a Vlad Guerrero size contract, you'd have to seriously consider it. But it's not, so you are going to have to make a much more compelling argument than you have thus far that Tex is worth that kind of scratch for that length of time.

Great point. It's not 2002/2003. Vlad Guerrero contracts now go to JD Drew types.

The compelling argument is this:

The majority of the Sox major offensive players are either injury prone (Drew), aging (Varitek) or both (Lowell, Ortiz). Youkilis and Pedroia do not have the track record to count on them improving or even sustaining their level of production from this season. I think it would be fair to expect similar production from Bay. SS and CF are the unknown. This all likely results in a net decline offensively for 2009. It also means short of a major shakeup, the only places to counter that decline are at C and 1B/3B (an option because of Youks' versatility and Lowell's concerns). I think it fair to assume they won't be making moves at CF, SS, RF, 2B or DH.

Further, looking ahead to the FA crop after next season, the impact FAs available will be Holliday, Bay and an aging/hobbling Guerrero. Meaning if we don't take advantage of Teixeira being available, we're likely a.) looking at our team for the next 2 years (Bay vs. Holliday is a wash); b.) relying on prospects to come through; or c.) spending prospects in trade to stave off decline, when they could likely be used in a better manner.

Now, if you want to debate if Teixeira will earn every penny of the contract he ends up with, I don't think that's one anyone can win, nor would I enter into to. But if you want to argue if he is worth it to the Sox, then yes, I think he is; because I factor in things like opportunity, need and allocation of assets into that debate. If the Sox are moving prospects I want it for a catcher and for pitching. If the choice is ever between spending money or bodies, I hope they choose money.

I wonder if your opposition is a matter of principle or a fear that the contract will handcuff them sometime in the future?

Again, we are wasting time here b/c not only do the Yankees, O's and Angels need him more, they have all shown a willingness to commit stupid money for a guy who would be a real upgrade (or loss as the case may be). That's just not the Sox' style. While it may be a come down, I think it's far more likely that you see the likes of Ben Broussard, Casey Blake or Hank Blaylock here than you do Teixeira.

Ya, we probably are wasting time. They probably won't end up with Teixeira, but I sure hope it's not for lack of trying. Because I don't want to pin our hopes on the likes of Broussard or Blaylock. Nor should you.

[8 and 9 in Left]

The answer to the question is solely based on whether the Sox believe that both Papi and Lowell are likely to return 100% in the Spring. If there is doubt about that as to either, then they should pursue Tex. If, however, they are confident that both have injuries that will completely heal, then pass and focus on acquiring a catcher and pitching.

[8 and 9 in Left]

What about 2010 or 2011? Both guys are under contract through those seasons and the Sox currently have the opportunity to protect against the decline of both those players. I don't really care whether or not Lowell comes back 100%, with regards to pursuing Teixeira. This guy is a special hitter and not one that I pass over on the chance that Lowell comes back healthy.

Not to mention the fact that even if Lowell does come back healthy, he's going to be 35 on opening day and his best days are definitely behind him.

But the only thing that's changed since the Sox inked Lowell less than a year ago (and his deal is only through 2010, right?) is his injury. That's not to say that your point about his age isn't valid, but rather that I doubt the Sox signed Lowell to a 3-year deal with the idea that they'd sign his replacement before year two.

[paulftodd]

But the only thing that's changed since the Sox inked Lowell less than a year ago (and his deal is only through 2010, right?) is his injury. That's not to say that your point about his age isn't valid, but rather that I doubt the Sox signed Lowell to a 3-year deal with the idea that they'd sign his replacement before year two.

The injury makes Lowell a big unknown for the last 2 years of his contract. Papi is also a question mark. I think what the FO does depends on their assessment on how Papi and Lowell will perform in 2009. Lars Anderson might be ready by 2010, so my feeling is they look for cheaper insurance than Tex. I do not trust his numbers from the last 2 years coming as they do from the NL and AL West.

[jtn46]

And he would also block the Red Sox best power prospect in a generation in Lars Anderson.

I see Anderson as Papi's successor right now.

What is the consensus here on what it would take to sign Hank Blaylock? Even if it was 3/15--which seems high--wouldn't that be a better use of resources so we could save our bullets for pitching?

No. Blalock is an injury prone guy with a terrible swing who's not remotely consistent year to year. Mike Lowell is a better player than Hank Blalock.

I don't have a strong opinion either way here, but I think dumping Lowell is dumb. It's a stupid way to spend money. I'm sure the Red Sox anticipated some durability issues when they extended him, they got some, live with it. I'm not even sure I advocate dumping Lugo, he's an improvement over Cora, so why trade him away for nickels on the dollar? Sure, he's way overpaid to be a utility guy, but he's replaced by a guy that's way underpaid to be a starting SS, so it works out...

[Robinson Checo]

I have to agree that dumping Lugo and Lowell makes little sense. First of all, Lowell can and should be at or a tad better than a major league average third baseman for 2009. I also agree with jtn that Lugo could take Cora's spot as a super utility guy.

If we are all seeing the weaknesses in Lowell and Lugo, than it is obvious that GMs do, and with salaries the way they are, why take Lowell and Lugo? Maybe if you throw a prospect with them, but I don't see the FO acting that way.

I would love to see Teixiera in the middle of the line up, but I am not sure how it makes sense or how it fits. If anyone goes to make room for him, it could be Youks in a package for a catcher, and I dont see that happening.

Edited by Robinson Checo, 26 October 2008 - 07:37 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I have to agree that dumping Lugo and Lowell makes little sense. First of all, Lowell can and should be at or a tad better than a major league average third baseman for 2009. I also agree with jtn that Lugo could take Cora's spot as a super utility guy.

If we are all seeing the weaknesses in Lowell and Lugo, than it is obvious that GMs do, and with salaries the way they are, why take Lowell and Lugo? Maybe if you throw a prospect with them, but I don't see the FO acting that way.

I would love to see Teixiera in the middle of the line up, but I am not sure how it makes sense or how it fits. If anyone goes to make room for him, it could be Youks in a package for a catcher, and I dont see that happening.

So Lowell is bad enough that we would need to throw in a prospect to get another team to take him, yet you're ok with that as our 3B?

[jtn46]

People need to stop thinking in 1-year segments. Teixeira offers the Red Sox the opportunity to acquire an elite hitter in the prime of his career.

But Teixiera isn't A-Rod or Griffey or some other once in a lifetime talent. He's a very nice hitter and a terrific first baseman, and while the Red Sox could always use an improved lineup, the cost her is just so severe I don't see this as so vital a move.

I realize Lowell is due $12M each of the past two seasons, but he strikes me as an excellent player to have on this team's bench.

This is fantasy league stuff. Using Lugo on the bench makes sense because his replacement is making the league minimum. If there's a player like Teixeira you want to trade for, that at least makes some sense because you have control over how much you're spending, but what you're talking about is spending something like $25 million a year to displace a guy making $12 million a year. It's not happening, there's no way the Red Sox are going to do that, and I don't blame them.

[mabrowndog]

Let's dispense with the chatter of signing Hank Blalock. He's not going anywhere, and as JTN pointed out the Sox won't want him. Still, I'll eat URISoxFan's dirty underwear on a platter if the Rangers don't pick up his $6.2M option for next season. Ditto for the Mets, who'll gladly spend the $12M needed to bring back Carlos Delgado.

The Yankees will likely decline their $22M option on Giambi. So after Teixeira (67.7) and Giambi (32.5), the best available free agent first basemen by 2008 VORP will be -- are you ready for this???

Sean Casey and Rich Aurilia, who both come in at 8.2. And if Jeff Bailey is non-tendered (though I doubt he will be), he'd rank third at 3.1.

All the other pending FA 1B either have sub-zero VORPS or didn't play enough at the position to qualify:

Kevin Millar (-0.3)
Tony Clark (-1.5)
Richie Sexson (-2.0)
Aaron Boone (-2.9)
Miguel Cairo (-4.0)
Ben Broussard (-8.0)
Mark Kotsay
Doug Mientkiewicz
Nomar Garciaparra
Chris Gomez
Scott Hatteberg
Mike Lamb
Greg Norton
Mark Sweeney
Daryle Ward

Adam Dunn can play first, but let's be serious. He's played 64 games there in the last 5 years. Ditto for Pat Burrell, who hasn't played the position since 2000 (58 games).

The above list includes only those who saw action in the majors last season. Washed-up vets like Craig Brazell, Alex Cabrera, Erubiel Durazo, Kevin Witt and Julio Zuleta are still playing in foreign leagues. Some more names might get added from those non-tendered or who don't accept arbitration.

Otherwise, that's all, folks. If you want a new first baseman and don't want to trade for one, those are your options. Bon Appetit.

Edited by mabrowndog, 26 October 2008 - 08:30 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Somehow you fail to mention the 80 point drop in OPS.

An 80 point drop, one should add, from an OPS driven almost entirely by an out-of-career-context .337 BABIP (or .342, depending on which site you're looking at). His 2nd-half BABIP in '07 was .383, a number that effectively obscured the fact that Lowell had the same second-half power drop in '07 that he always has (his ISO went from .218 in the first half to .133 in the second). If you normalize Lowell's '07 numbers to his .293 career BABIP, you get averages of .284/.342/.460, or an OPS of .802--almost identical to both this year's numbers and his lifetime numbers.

Lowell was just monumentally lucky in the 2nd half of '07. An .800 OPS guy is what he is at this stage of his career. And that's an acceptable offensive contribution for a good defensive 3B and clubhouse leader, although $12M might be a bit of a steep price for it. The main question is, will he be healthy enough to give us even that?