132 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

Surprised nobody's started a separate thread about this yet:

Cafardo column

Lowe told this reporter that while money is important, he wants to go to a quality organization committed to winning, and no organization, in his mind, fits that description better than Boston.

Would the Red Sox be interested?

That's what Lowe doesn't know. He left Boston after the 2004 season to sign a four-year, $36 million deal with the Dodgers. Off-the-field issues were a big factor in the Red Sox making a tough decision to part ways after he won three clinching games in the postseason that year.

Lowe, 35, who still lives in Fort Myers, Fla., and is expected to be one of the most sought-after pitchers in the free agent market, doesn't seem to think he'll be back with the Dodgers. He was still upset about being lifted after five innings in Game 4 of the NLCS, when he had a 3-2 lead, only to see the bullpen squander it.

Lowe, who was working on three days' rest, felt he was just getting into his rhythm and had pitched his best inning. He went to the bathroom after the fifth, and when he returned, he was informed he was done.

"I want to be with an organization that's committed to winning and that can win," said Lowe, who is scheduled to meet with Dodgers manager Joe Torre this week to discuss his future. "An organization that is going to be there year in and year out and do everything. That's what means the most to me at this stage of my career."

The Red Sox replaced Lowe with Matt Clement, an exchange that didn't work out so well.

The Yankees, Mets, Tigers, Indians, Cardinals, Cubs, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Rangers, Astros, and Blue Jays are all said to be very interested in Lowe.

Lowe is represented by Scott Boras and said he will direct Boras on what's most important to him in the next few days when they meet in Los Angeles.

I could definitely see some issues with Lowe joining this team:

* He'll surely want a long-term deal, and that's a big risk for a 35-year-old with an inconsistent track record.
* With numerous other suitors, including many with pockets as deep as Boston's, he won't come cheap and the odds of getting value in return aren't that great.
* After putting up great numbers in a pitcher's park and in a DH-free league, he'll likely be overvalued by the market.
* If the Sox are going to spend big money for starting pitching, they're better off trending toward younger power arms rather than aging veterans -- even if the younger ones cost more, which they likely will.
* Signing him means Buchholz, Bowden (and possibly Masterson) will be fighting it out for the #5 spot. Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, but potentially stalling/stifling the progress of some young studs certainly carries some risk.
* How big a sore spot will his past be with management? Cafardo only touches on them with the "off-field issues" comment.
* There are times when dealing with Scott Boras is a necessary evil, but it should be avoided whenever possible.
* Frankly, the fact that he's harboring a grudge over being lifted by Torre indicates that Lowe's still got a huge immaturity complex.

I've got plenty of awesome memories of DLowe in a Boston uniform. His fantastic season as a set-up man in '98. His phenomenal year as closer in 2000. His successful conversion to starter with a 21-win season in '02. The stunning no-hitter vs Tampa Bay. The huge gonads in finishing off the A's in the '03 ALDS. The enormous Game 7 start in the '04 ALCS, holding the Yanks to 1 hit over 6 innings on just two days rest. His 7 shutout innings in the '04 WS clincher.

I'm just not sure what the chances are we'd ever see that DLowe again in this town -- or even something that comes close to it. So put me in the camp that believes if the Sox are going to spend big on a starter this winter, they're better off going all-in with pocket aces (Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets) than raising the pot with king-queen suited.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

* He'll surely want a long-term deal, and that's a big risk for a 35-year-old with an inconsistent track record.

His deal will no doubt be shorter than most of the other prime targets on the FA market. I would find it hard to believe he would hold out for more than 4 years and say what you will about Lowe, he has always had a rubber arm. While he had his problems with consistency in Boston, he's been about as steady as possible over the last four years in LA: Baseball Reference

* After putting up great numbers in a pitcher's park and in a DH-free league, he'll likely be overvalued by the market.

I would argue that the names like Sheets and Burnett will be more overvalued, in relation. They will get paid like #1s when they clearly are not. Lowe will certainly probably get more than his "true" value, but I would venture his per $ value will be higher over the course of his next contract than either of those two. Our main concern should be NYY, as they need someone like him badly.

* If the Sox are going to spend big money for starting pitching, they're better off trending toward younger power arms rather than aging veterans -- even if the younger ones cost more, which they likely will.

Lowe may very well be older than Burnett, CC or Sheets, but given the inherent injury risk of Burnett and Sheets (and the unlikelihood of the Sox going after CC), I would tend to think the league will see more IPs out of Lowe over the next 3-4 years than the other two.

* Signing him means Buchholz, Bowden (and possibly Masterson) will be fighting it out for the #5 spot. Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, but potentially stalling/stifling the progress of some young studs certainly carries some risk.

What exactly has happened between the day Buchholz was sent down and today that makes you think he's ready to step into the rotation and resume his path to the HoF? 8 IPs in the AFL? He needs at least half a season more at AAA to get his act together - he got rushed. It's time to take it back a step and not scar the kid for life. Masterson should stay right where he is and with a little creativity, throw 100+ IP out of the pen. Bowden? Should we really be counting on him for a rotation spot next year? I think that's more than premature.

* How big a sore spot will his past be with management? Cafardo only touches on them with the "off-field issues" comment.

This is the crux of the issue. Has he grown up? No more women or drug rumors? Great, come aboard.

* There are times when dealing with Scott Boras is a necessary evil, but it should be avoided whenever possible.

With the exception of the Manny situation, what bad experience have the Red Sox had with Boras? They have done plenty of business together in the past (Drew, Dice-K, Cora, Tek, Hansen, Ellsbury, Tavarez) with no problems. I would venture to say the Sox have one of the better working relationships with Boras. I also don't share the venom many have for the man (he's dam ngood at his job and the speculation aimed at his influence on Manny I find ridiculous, but again, that's just MHO of the guy), so maybe I'm biased there.

* Frankly, the fact that he's harboring a grudge over being lifted by Torre indicates that Lowe's still got a huge immaturity complex.

Harboring a grudge? It wasn't even a week ago...And further, I see no quotes provided by Cafardo to that effect to begin with, only his own take on the situation. There's a difference between immaturity and competitiveness - the guy had been balls for that team the last month, he's pitching on 3 days rest in an elimination game and gets pulled after the 4th, with a lead, while he's taking a leak, and Torre doesn't even discuss it with him? You dont want him to be upset? I think I'd probably be more worried if he was cool with it.

I'm just not sure what the chances are we'd ever see that DLowe again in this town -- or even something that comes close to it. So put me in the camp that believes if the Sox are going to spend big on a starter this winter, they're better off going all-in with pocket aces (Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets) than raising the pot with king-queen suited.

You have one pocket ace there - CC. Neither Sheets, nor Burnett, have ever proven healthy or dominant enough to be labeled an ace. They are both wildcards. And I would be willing to bet whomever signs them gets less value per $ than whomever signs Lowe.

I'm not saying Lowe is the best FA pitcher out there or the answer to all our prayers. But I d think he is a hell of a lot mroe attractive than you are making him out to be and frankly, I think he would be a greaat fit returning to Boston.

Edited by Papelbon's Poutine, 22 October 2008 - 05:55 PM.

[mabrowndog]

That's an excellent response, PP. You made a lot of great points.

[SoxFanPJ]

Over the last 7 years as a Starting pitcher Lowe has pitched 1456 regular season innings, average that out and its 208 innings per season. He is not an ace but he would make a very good 4th starter for the Redsox in 2009.

Were the off the field issues so severe that it would preclude bringing him back? I remember hearing rumors of too much boozing and partying. Of course out in LA there was the whole affair with the newscaster thing.

The other key issue would be cost. If Lowe costs 3/$30M then for comparisons sake that would be less in 2009 then Schilling and Timlin combined in 2008 ($11M). There has to be a sliding scale in terms of cost and performance. Sure CC would be great to have on the team, but if the starting point is similar to Santana money, then $23M AAV for 6-7 years is a tremendous amount of cost and risk for a team to assume particularly given the breakdown of the insurance market to cover player injuries.

The unknowable factor is just how much of a discount Lowe is willing to take to come back to Boston, if he is going to be willing to take any at all. This may be his way of getting more teams in on bidding on him early thinking he is going to be a bargain for a contender, then as the market demand increases so does his asking price.

Would it help Masterson and his development to have a veteran sinkerballer like Lowe on the team, to pick his brain about their craft?

If the Sox wanted to I wonder if they could get Lowe to sign a Mussina like deal 1/$16M, this might work better for the organization especially if they are confident in their ability to develop Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden for 2 rotation spots in 2010.

[Manny's Hammies]

One of the biggest questions facing any FA signing for the Red Sox is "Can he handle the pressure of playing in Boston?" And based on Lowe's own experience here, I don't know if you can answer that question affirmatively.

This FO makes decisions based on one thing and one thing alone: value. A two-year deal with an option year at, say, $8M is one thing -- but given the premium price for pitching does anyone seriously think Boras and Lowe would take something like that? I know Lowe sounds like he wants to be in Boston now -- but as PP said, we're less than a month out from a very disappointing postseason loss.

As for the off-field issues, anyone who knows anything about substance abuse (if it was substance abuse in Lowe's case) knows that you struggle with that kind of thing for the rest of your life -- you never put it completely behind you. Plus, it wasn't as if Lowe was a model citizen in LA -- it was only 3 years ago that the whole affair with Carolyn Hughes happened. I just can't imagine the Sox would want to go anywhere near something like that -- not after they didn't so much as offer Lowe a contract after 2004, when reports indicated he practically BEGGED the Sox to take him back. Not after they just shipped Manny out of town and paid the freight.

I like Lowe. I think he might be decent value for the Sox for a year or two as PP says. And as a fan, I think he makes this team fun. But particularly as we enter a post-Manny era, I have a VERY hard time believing the Sox would bring Lowe back under any circumstances.

[exGloucester]

One of the biggest questions facing any FA signing for the Red Sox is "Can he handle the pressure of playing in Boston?" And based on Lowe's own experience here, I don't know if you can answer that question affirmatively.

I think if you are saying that the pressure of playing in Boston led him to booze and women in some more unsavory way than it leads other players, then I understand, but I don't know whether it did, or whether he just liked his whiskey and tail anyway. What has the L.A. press been reporting the last two years about Lowe, has he managed to stay under the radar for a while?

I think in many on the field situations, he handled the pressure of playing in Boston very well.

I hope, and I think, in the post-Manny era, management is not looking to stock the team with a bunch of Mennonites.

From seeing Lowe in the playoffs this year, he still looked pretty good and that sinker still looked like a pretty effective pitch.

[thisyearisthe]

At the end of the day, we would need another team plane to carry the baggage. It's just not worthwhile...

[Blacken]

Over the last 7 years as a Starting pitcher Lowe has pitched 1456 regular season innings, average that out and its 208 innings per season. He is not an ace but he would make a very good 4th starter for the Redsox in 2009.

Were the off the field issues so severe that it would preclude bringing him back? I remember hearing rumors of too much boozing and partying. Of course out in LA there was the whole affair with the newscaster thing.

The other key issue would be cost. If Lowe costs 3/$30M then for comparisons sake that would be less in 2009 then Schilling and Timlin combined in 2008 ($11M). There has to be a sliding scale in terms of cost and performance. Sure CC would be great to have on the team, but if the starting point is similar to Santana money, then $23M AAV for 6-7 years is a tremendous amount of cost and risk for a team to assume particularly given the breakdown of the insurance market to cover player injuries.

The unknowable factor is just how much of a discount Lowe is willing to take to come back to Boston, if he is going to be willing to take any at all. This may be his way of getting more teams in on bidding on him early thinking he is going to be a bargain for a contender, then as the market demand increases so does his asking price.

Would it help Masterson and his development to have a veteran sinkerballer like Lowe on the team, to pick his brain about their craft?

If the Sox wanted to I wonder if they could get Lowe to sign a Mussina like deal 1/$16M, this might work better for the organization especially if they are confident in their ability to develop Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden for 2 rotation spots in 2010.

I said in Backwash that Pap's Poutine pushed me to neutral, this just pushed me to "positive." Great post.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

This is neither here nor there, but it just occurred to me: how severe of a drinker and womanizer does one have to be to separate oneself from the pack amongst baseball players?

As far as the topic goes, I'd happily sign Lowe as long as his demands weren't outrageous (he eats innings at above the league average and is durable), but I figure if the Sox let him go 4 years ago because of character issues (which I don't necessarily disagree with), then I doubt they'd bring him back now.

[OilCanShotTupac]

Infield defense is very important for Lowe, who gives up tons of ground balls, and who sulks when bleeders get through.

In 2004, his last go-round with the Sox, the Sox' infield featured sucktastic defenders such as the immobile Mark Bellhorn, an increasingly ineffective and oft-injured Nomar Garciaparra, and Kevin Millar. Significant innings were logged by the likes of the decrepit Ricky Gutierrez, the unremarkable Brian Daubach, and even David Ortiz (remember when he played 1B? 31 starts in 2004). That may well have contributed to Lowe leading the team in hits in 2004 (224 in only 182 innings).

We can't be sure exactly what the Sox infield defense would look like behind Lowe in '08, but it would likely be much better than that. That's a point in Lowe's favor.

anticipatory edit: yes, I know that Bellhorn excelled in turning the DP.

Edited by OilCanShotTupac, 23 October 2008 - 12:39 AM.

[bellyofthebeast]

As far as the topic goes, I'd happily sign Lowe as long as his demands weren't outrageous (he eats innings at above the league average and is durable), but I figure if the Sox let him go 4 years ago because of character issues (which I don't necessarily disagree with), then I doubt they'd bring him back now.

Four years is a long time as far as "character issues" go, no? Four years from now Joba Chamberlain's DUI will be ancient history (or at least I hope so).

I think that the Sox said goodbye four years ago because they didn't think Derek Lowe would be cost effective at getting hitters out. Has that changed since then? Perhaps it has.

I don't know what DLowe is worth. I'm not claiming he's a good option. But failing to give his 2009 BoSox potential significant consideration because of anything that might have happened four years ago would be very short-sighted IMO.

Edited by bellyofthebeast, 23 October 2008 - 12:49 AM.

[JimMonaghan]

I think that the Sox said goodbye four years ago because they didn't think Derek Lowe would be cost effective at getting hitters out.

That...and certain aspects of his lifestyle.

And maybe they were just as frustrated by DLowe's mental makeup - how many of us really want to see the return of the Derek Lowe Face?

[OilCanShotTupac]

That...and certain aspects of his lifestyle.

And maybe they were just as frustrated by DLowe's mental makeup - how many of us really want to see the return of the Derek Lowe Face?

But the question of Lowe's mental makeup is not an easy one.

On the one hand, you have the Derek Lowe Face.

On the other, you have the stone cold killer of the '04 playoffs, when little was expected of him.

And that's all four years ago.

Not cut-and-dry, IMO.

[OCD SS]

The other key issue would be cost. If Lowe costs 3/$30M then for comparisons sake that would be less in 2009 then Schilling and Timlin combined in 2008 ($11M). There has to be a sliding scale in terms of cost and performance. Sure CC would be great to have on the team, but if the starting point is similar to Santana money, then $23M AAV for 6-7 years is a tremendous amount of cost and risk for a team to assume particularly given the breakdown of the insurance market to cover player injuries.

Lowe is not a reasonable alternative to CC. Lowe is a reasonable alternative to Tim Wakefield. I think Philly has been pretty convincing in trying to show that the Sox have plenty of money to spend on a marquee free agent acquisition. Lowe is a nice depth move who allows the Sox to trade some young pitching to fill other holes and let the pitchers who remain develop at their own pace rather than being rushed into the rotation. If the Sox go after CC it's because they're looking to grab one of the few elite SPs to hit the FA market, and are looking for someone who can sit at the top of the rotation if need be.

The unknowable factor is just how much of a discount Lowe is willing to take to come back to Boston, if he is going to be willing to take any at all. This may be his way of getting more teams in on bidding on him early thinking he is going to be a bargain for a contender, then as the market demand increases so does his asking price.

If the Sox wanted to I wonder if they could get Lowe to sign a Mussina like deal 1/$16M, this might work better for the organization especially if they are confident in their ability to develop Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden for 2 rotation spots in 2010.

His agent is still Scott Boras. Just because he said he'd like to come back to Boston does not mean he's willing to give that much of a (if any) discount. Frankly, this is no different than someone who hasn't played in Boston saying they'd like to play for the Red Sox when they really mean that they'd like to have the Red Sox bidding on them.

[Cumberland Blues]

Since he became a fulltime starter in 2002, Lowe is 9th in MLB in innings pitched and 4th in Games Started. He's as durable as they come - you can count on him for 200 innings - most of which will be pretty good. He's not the best pitcher available - but he likely is the most reliably healthy pitcher available. There's value in that - Lowe's gonna get big payday from someone.

[Razor Shines]

Regarding the character issues (which seemed to be confined to drinking and screwing), I think there is a general difference in maturity between men in the 25-31 age group and the 35-40 age group these days. This is all a generalization, and there are exceptions (Kennedys, ect.), but the odds are that Lowe has a little more self control now than he did in the "Idiot" era.

He seems to be fine in LA, and it's not exactly a dry town.

[bellyofthebeast]

That...and certain aspects of his lifestyle.

I know that concern about Lowe's "lifestyle" has been reported as a big part of this story, and I'm sure it had an effect.

Trinka Lowe alleged in her deposition that the pitcher's agent, Scott Boras, suggested an "intervention" to deal with the player's drinking and told her the Red Sox did not re-sign Lowe after the 2004 season because of his alcohol problem.
http://www.laobserve...ble_bad_day.php

Concern about alchohol abuse would certainly factor into my decision about what to offer a player. And I'm sure it did for the Sox when they considered the $36 million (or so) that Lowe was seeking after 2004. But the fact that they came to terms with David Wells on an $8 million guarantee shortly after passing on Lowe leads me to believe that their decision to let him go had more to do with his contract requirements than any incapacitating company policy about his "lifestyle".

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

I know that concern about Lowe's "lifestyle" has been reported as a big part of this story, and I'm sure it had an effect.
Concern about alchohol abuse would certainly factor into my decision about what to offer a player. And I'm sure it did for the Sox when they considered the $36 million (or so) that Lowe was seeking after 2004. But the fact that they came to terms with David Wells on an $8 million guarantee shortly after passing on Lowe leads me to believe that their decision to let him go had more to do with his contract requirements than any incapacitating company policy about his "lifestyle".

Aside from the lifestyle issues - which were ceratainly a major factor IMO, the fact that Lowe was coming off two very poor seasons in 2003 and 2004, also contributed to what, I considered at the time, to be a slam dunk decision not to bring him back.

http://www.baseball-.../lowede01.shtml

As for the future, he has been very good in L.A. - but in a pitcher's park in an inferior league and 4 years on .. his major attraction is his durability - 7 straight seasons with 32+ starts. But I'm not sure a 36 year old pitcher is as much of a lock as he has been.

I wouldn't sign him - at least not for anywhere near what he would get elsewhere.

Of course, all this changes if Wakefield doesn't come back - I could see a 3/30 offer in that circumstance.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Aside from the lifestyle issues - which were ceratainly a major factor IMO, the fact that Lowe was coming off two very poor seasons in 2003 and 2004, also contributed to what, I considered at the time, to be a slam dunk decision not to bring him back.

And in 2004, his 5.42 ERA did not include the 28 unearned runs he allowed that year, a staggering number. There was ample evidence at the time that Lowe fell apart on the mound if an error took place behind him.

If he's gotten his numerous lifestyle issues straightened out, he's well worth investigating, because he is durable and as a ground ball pitcher he relies less on his home park than a lot of other guys (all infields are the same save for the turf parks). But a 4 year deal for a 36 year old pitcher is pretty risky, and since his agent is Scott Boras I'm sure that's what he will be asking to receive.

[PedroKsBambino]

I mentioned this when bringing up Lowe in (I think) one of the Sabathia discussions, but does anyone have a sense of the comps and/or aging curves for an extreme GB pitcher?

I took a quick look at this on BP and Baseball Reference and the only one who sort of looked like Lowe was Tommy John, who (amongst other differentiating factors) was a lefty. Kevin Brown really isn't like Lowe in terms of stuff, but is a bit in GB rate.

I guess that, to me, is a huge part of the analysis and something I don't know much about. There's studies on how (generally speaking) power pitchers age best, but Lowe is pretty unique in his GB rate and durability and thus, I'm not sure how we project him going forward.

[TheYaz67]

"I want to be with an organization that's committed to winning and that can win," said Lowe, who is scheduled to meet with Dodgers manager Joe Torre this week to discuss his future. "An organization that is going to be there year in and year out and do everything. That's what means the most to me at this stage of my career."

This may be the reason Lowe becomes available at a reasonable cost/fewer years. If the usual suspects (Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Mets, etc.. - big spenders who aspire to be contenders year in and year out) don't bite, and the choice is between 1 year @ $14M for the Sox, or 3 maybe 4 years @ $12M per with someone like Seattle or Baltimore, I think if he is honest about wanting to play for a contender, even Boras would have a hard time steering him away from a second act in Boston.

I am certainly concerned about the way he left - he may harbor a grudge against the ownership (despite honestly wanting to return), who in turn may not trust him fully (despite signing on for DLowe v 2.0) or will bail on him should he get in trouble partying or something. Its a tension in the background that probably makes no difference if everything is going smoothly, but hit a rough patch, open your mouth without thinking, and this relationship could blow up fast. I appreciate his durability as others have pointed out, and know there is significant value in that, and I also believe Oil Can is on to something vis a vis a much better infield defense behind him now, which would enhance his groundball generating skills.

I just would really rather not sign him to a multi year deal, both from the risk perspective (attitude & partying concerns) and from the perspective that it could unnecessarily delay MLB introduction of good young starting pitching depth the Sox have had recent success in developing.

[Average Reds]

Lowe is not a reasonable alternative to CC. Lowe is a reasonable alternative to Tim Wakefield.

Agee completely. If that's an acceptable role for him, I'd love to have him on the Sox.

This may be the reason Lowe becomes available at a reasonable cost/fewer years. If the usual suspects (Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Mets, etc.. - big spenders who aspire to be contenders year in and year out) don't bite, and the choice is between 1 year @ $14M for the Sox, or 3 maybe 4 years @ $12M per with someone like Seattle or Baltimore, I think if he is honest about wanting to play for a contender, even Boras would have a hard time steering him away from a second act in Boston.

I can't imagine that they would pay him anything close to that much money even on a one year deal. If that's what it takes, I can't see him back here.

[IpswichSox]

Lowe is not a reasonable alternative to CC. Lowe is a reasonable alternative to Tim Wakefield.

I understand what you're saying here generally -- that all things considered, Lowe would be an adequate on-the-field replacement for Wakefield as a No. 4 or No. 5.

However, while Lowe may approximate, or even slightly exceed, Wakefield's production of the last two years, it would be at a significant cost. Who knows what Lowe will get on the open market (some here have thrown out $12 million per and even higher)? But for the FO to get serious, they would have to offer probably more than double Wakefield's perpetual $4 million, as well as absorb the increased risk and decreased flexibility that comes with a multi-year deal.

This is Henry's money, not mine, so I don't really care about the consequences from that standpoint. Instead, I'm focused on the opportunity cost -- everything from making a real run at Teixeira and absorbing some of Lowell's contract to paying above slot for next summer's draftees. I just don't see the production upside of having Lowe as a Wakefield replacement as that big given the likely cost.

Now, if Wakefield retires and/or you're convinced Buchholz spends 2009 in Pawtucket...

[24JoshuaPoint]

This is neither here nor there, but it just occurred to me: how severe of a drinker and womanizer does one have to be to separate oneself from the pack amongst baseball players?

I recall hearing something about him showing up to an event or events with a random girl under his arm who was not his wife. Basically not giving a dam about others noticing his apparent cheating ways. I vaguely remember hearing John Henry was at the function and was visibly not pleased. I could be pulling some of this from thin air.

On the field i agree he looks like a pretty viable option in the 09 rotation. The 09 infield defense looks to have an edge over the 03 and 04 Sox in my opinion.

[Harry Agganis]

And this cheating behavior is different than varitek or any of a stable of others in what way. If lifestyle was at issue it probably only concerned alcohol. Or perhaps at the outside he screwed around so much it affected his pitching. Lat time I checked moral decrepitude is only used as an addition to get rid of someone that you already don't want for other reasons.

[Rudy Pemberton]

There was at least the perception that his off the field activities were affecting his production. Lowe was just miserable in '04 and his performance so up and down that made many wonder what the heck was going on. IIRC, he was bombed in an important day game start at Yankee Stadium, and rumors were that he bombed the night before.

(My point is that no one gives a shit what he does off the field- until it affects what he does on the field. At that point, it's a problem.)

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 23 October 2008 - 02:05 PM.

[biollante]

He cheats, drinks and plays baseball ? Color me stunned. I'm not opposed to having him throw a baseball for the Sox.

I am more concerned with his age (35). I'm not sure what makes sense with Lowe. It all comes down to years and money. I would think Boras would be a turn off by now.

[24JoshuaPoint]

And this cheating behavior is different than varitek or any of a stable of others in what way.

I think his 'look at me i'm cheating and i don't care if you know' attitude is what i recall reading aggravated JWH. I guess some would consider it uncouth to be outwardly flaunting their own lack of morals. It's not my opinion as i was simply regurgitating what i thought i had read. And it did seem at the time as an easy out reason to not resign him.

[RGREELEY33]

He cheats, drinks and plays baseball ? Color me stunned. I'm not opposed to having him throw a baseball for the Sox.

He is officially divorced now, so he can bang whomever he wants. And, he started taking Adderall in 2005 or 2006 for
his "severe ADD", so he'll be well-behaved. 4 years, $40 million, and I do it. I miss the D Lowe Face.

[BGrif21125]

Obviously it comes down to whether he can be signed for a reasonable price, since he'd be the #4 in the Sox rotation. But if so, I'd pursue Lowe with very little hesitation.

When looking at available pitchers, the two biggest questions I have are "Is this guy likely to stay healthy?" and "Would I trust him on the mound in a pressure-packed game?"

Lowe has a proven track record in both instances, which is something you can't say for a lot of other available pitchers. He's got a rubber arm and for all his personality flaws, he's always been able to get his head in order when the situation forces him to.

[smastroyin]

He's going to want a lot of money which is the real problem. I think the Sox were honestly concerned that his attitude and mental issues would hinder his ability to pitch. He has shown in LA that that is not the case. But at the end of 2004 he was coming off of a season where he had real problems staying focused. So what I'm saying here is that I don't think his off-field stuff would really be on the table at this point.

[doc]

He is officially divorced now, so he can bang whomever he wants. And, he started taking Adderall in 2005 or 2006 for
his "severe ADD", so he'll be well-behaved. 4 years, $40 million, and I do it. I miss the D Lowe Face.

A lot of players came down with "severe ADD" around then because if you can get the medical exemption the adderall etc does the same thing as greenies.

Link

I'm not surprised it's helping him, focus on the mound did seem a problem.

[xjack]

I'd love to have D-Lowe back for a year or two, but some team will definitely offer him a four-year contract. In fact, I bet some team offers Oliver Perez a 4-year deal too.

[jtn46]

No thanks. 4 seasons pitching well in a big ballpark to anemic NL West hitters doesn't persuade me. I think in the AL East, Wakefield's a better pitcher than Lowe.

Edited by jtn46, 23 October 2008 - 03:43 PM.

[TheoShmeo]

No thanks. 4 seasons pitching well in a big ballpark to anemic NL West hitters doesn't persuade me. I think in the AL East, Wakefield's a better pitcher than Lowe.

I can understand the view that Wake is a better all around deal than Lowe given the huge disparity in their contracts and the 3 or 4 year contract Lowe will probably require as opposed to the perpetual one-year options that Wake affords the Sox.

But given that Wake has been in and out of the line-up over the last three seasons, and given how poorly Wake has performed as a starter in the playoffs (whether it's the knuckler in the cold October air or some other reason), I can't conceive of viewing Wakefield as a better pitcher finances aside. Maybe you were baking the contract issues into your comment.

Also, as a ground ball inducing sinker baller, I'm not sure the big LA ballpark had as much impact on Lowe's numbers as it would on a fly ball pitcher.

PS: This is not a reason to sign Lowe, but whether Lowe signs in Boston or not, it's refreshing to hear that a player wants to come back to the Sox. I know Millar has said or intimated similar things in the past, but the standard media picture is that every player who ever came through Fenway is like Manny and David Wells, and found the Sox experience to be nothing but oppressive.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 23 October 2008 - 04:01 PM.

[ToxicSmed]

I can't imagine that they would pay him anything close to that much money even on a one year deal. If that's what it takes, I can't see him back here.

I think that you are underestimating the kind of premium a team needs to pay to sign pitchers to one-year deals.

Schilling: 8 million, plus bonuses
Gagne: 10 million
Rogers: 8 million
Todd Jones: 7 million
Randy Wolf: 8 million (2007), 4.75 million (2008)
Andy Pettitte: 16 million
Jason Jennings: 4 million

etc, etc.

Edited by ToxicSmed, 23 October 2008 - 04:07 PM.

[maufman]

I began writing this thread to make the case against Lowe, and I find myself thinking he might not be a bad option.

According to BP, since leaving Boston, Lowe has been 44 runs better than average, and 272 runs better than replacement-level. Over the same 4-year span, Burnett has been 23 runs better than average, and 239 runs better than replacement-level. Edge: Lowe.

According to Hardball Times, over the past 3 years neither Burnett nor Lowe has been significantly lucky/unlucky or helped/hurt by defense (though Lowe has been steady, and Burnett has bounced around).
Over that same span, BP says Lowe has been 15 runs more "unlucky" than Burnett, and Lowe's defense has been roughly average, while Burnett's has been a lot better than average. Edge: Lowe.

The only 2009 projections available (afaik) use the Marcels method. Marcels uses only past performance, age and regression to the mean-- which sounds bad, until you consider that those are the three paramount factors in any good projection system. I find the Marcels numbers a little goofy, so I'll give Sabathia's as well as Burnett's and Lowe's; that should help smoke out any goofiness in the system.

Burnett
170 IP, 166 H, 64 BB, 150 K, 4.28 ERA

Lowe
166 IP, 167 H, 50 BB, 114 K, 4.04 ERA

Sabathia
187 IP, 179 H, 52 BB. 160 K, 3.79 ERA

I should note that Sabathia has the highest projected IP of any pitcher in baseball, which is absurd. I'd probably take the over on all three IP totals and the under on all three ERAs.

I'm not defending Marcels as a projection system, but it illustrates a point-- if Lowe is worth the money he's going to get this winter, it won't be because he's durable (that's bound to slip with age), but because he's able to maintain his performance level, or something close to it.

Lowe has been excellent since leaving Boston (122 ERA+ overall, 131 ERA+ in 2008). Considering that Kyle Lohse (97 career ERA+, 113 ERA+ in 2008) just got 4/41, I can't see Lowe commanding less than 3/39, despite his age. So Lowe won't be a bargain-basement option by any stretch, but he's probably a better deal at 3/39 than Burnett is at 4/60.

I favor keeping Buchholz and finding a short-term solution behind the dish (one or more of re-signing Varitek for one-year, grabbing a veteran off the scrap heap, and bringing Dusty Brown to The Show). But if the FO is skeptical about Buchholz and wants to make him the centerpiece of a deal for a young catcher, then signing D-Lowe makes sense.

[jtn46]

I can understand the view that Wake is a better all around deal than Lowe given the huge disparity in their contracts and the 3 or 4 year contract Lowe will probably require as opposed to the perpetual one-year options that Wake affords the Sox.

But given that Wake has been in and out of the line-up over the last three seasons, and given how poorly Wake has performed as a starter in the playoffs (whether it's the knuckler in the cold October air or some other reason), I can't conceive of viewing Wakefield as a better pitcher finances aside. Maybe you were baking the contract issues into your comment.

Also, as a ground ball inducing sinker baller, I'm not sure the big LA ballpark had as much impact on Lowe's numbers as it would on a fly ball pitcher.

PS: This is not a reason to sign Lowe, but whether Lowe signs in Boston or not, it's refreshing to hear that a player wants to come back to the Sox. I know Millar has said or intimated similar things in the past, but the standard media picture is that every player who ever came through Fenway is like Manny and David Wells, and found the Sox experience to be nothing but oppressive.

Let me put it this way, in Lowe's last stint in the AL he actually lost his rotation spot he was so bad. Granted, bad defense attributed to that (FIP was 4.26 compared to an actual 5.46 ERA) but that was when Lowe was 4 years younger and from what I've seen, threw harder.

I'm not convinced he's somehow mentally more together than he was then...in Game 1 of the NLCS, Victorino reached on an error by Furcal, and within 3 batters Lowe was watching the game from the clubhouse. (Homer, Groundout, Homer)

My point is, I think there's a real risk that Lowe won't be effective enough to hold onto his rotation spot for an entire season. Add in that bringing him back into the AL East means he'll be pitching a lot more on turf and I just think it's a recipe for disaster.

I have a low opinion of the NL. I think while Burnett has risks and is going to cost a lot, the fact that he pitched so well in a very tough AL East carries a lot of water with me.

[Bowlerman9]

Let me put it this way, in Lowe's last stint in the AL he actually lost his rotation spot he was so bad.

In October .... on a team that had all 5 starters make all of their starts (with the 5th not earning a spot until the 3rd week of the season) ......

He was bad in 2004, without question ..... but to say he was so bad he lost his rotation spot without mentioning the two important/relevant facts above is just dishonest.

[jtn46]

In October .... on a team that had all 5 starters make all of their starts (with the 5th not earning a spot until the 3rd week of the season) ......

He was bad in 2004, without question ..... but to say he was so bad he lost his rotation spot without mentioning the two important/relevant facts above is just dishonest.

Fair enough. I think if the Red Sox had a better starter, he would have lost that rotation spot sooner, but they weren't in the kind of shape with pitching depth that they are now. Certainly on this board many were advocating a demotion.

[TheYellowDart5]

The interesting thing about Lowe is that, in just about every sense, 2004 was the nadir of his career ... highest walk rate of his career, worst K/BB ratio, worst WHIP, and second-worst BABIP (worst as a starter, though):



Since then, it's pretty much normalized, but the encouraging thing about that is that it doesn't appear to be a product of luck ... he's had a steady flyball and line drive rate all career. Interestingly enough, it's his groundball rate that's gone down over time (although that's still at a ridiculous ~60%):



So his major problem in 2004 (or at least, one of them) seems to be bad luck. Of course, losing his control didn't help either, but he seems to have gotten that under control.

On another note: Last year was the first season in LA that Lowe's had a worse HR/9 rate away than at home. Of course, ever since 2005, he's had an overall HR/9 rate under 1.0, so it's been all good anyway. FWIW, his away ERA is a full point higher than his home ERA, but that seems to be mostly the product of a higher BABIP on the road.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Instead, I'm focused on the opportunity cost -- everything from making a real run at Teixeira....

This might be a round about way to convey my stance, but try to bear with me, all:

I'm thinking (or at least hoping) the Sox are beginning to realize they should head into every offseason with a plan to improve the pitching staff. The avenue, whether FA or trade or even mL promotion, will change every year, as will the available targets and the market value therein. Independent of the previous year's success, whatever assets they deem expendable (money or prospects), should be, at least in part, earmarked to this goal. Yes, that old chestnut, "you can never have too much pitching".

If we agree on this, let's go from there:

Let's assume we can divide the FA pitching pool into 4 main groups:

Big tickets (CC, Burnett, Sheets)
Mid range (Lowe, Perez, Dempster, etc.)
Longer term crapshots (Garland, maybe Penny if his option is declined, etc.)
Short term crapshots (Byrd, Wolf, Mussina, Hampton, Johnson, etc.)

Let's also assume that the only player in FA that the Sox can make a major offensive impact by signing is Teixeira - given the current composition of the team and the dearth of quality FA catchers, I think this is a fair assumption. Anything else would be bench help, short of a major shakeup.

The Sox really have a choice:

Try to improve on both sides : Teixeira + mid-range or lower P
or
Focus on pitching: Big ticket P/no significant additions on offense (through FA at least).

(I think it's unreasonable to assume they could sign Teixeira and a big ticket P, but that's only MHO. Not necessarily because of $$, but simply because you so rarely see one team grab two huge FAs, be it because of the time needed to court them, the $ or any other factors. )

If you agree with those assumptions, your stance really depends on what you think this team needs most. If you think Teixeira should be a serious target (which I personally do), then you're really taking those three big tickets out of the picture. After that, the Sox need to look at the rest of the FA Ps and determine who figures to be the safest bet. I would argue that Lowe is the choice here. No, he doesn't have the biggest upside (Perez probably does). But he has the best chance to meet his reasonable projections.

To wrap it up, I think if anyone's personal preference is that we make a hard run at Teixeira (and also hope for some SP depth), Lowe is exactly the guy you should hope we go after.

...and absorbing some of Lowell's contract to paying above slot for next summer's draftees.

I think the Sox have proven with Renteria and Manny that if they have to eat a contract to get what they want, they will. We may or may not see them do it again with Lowell or Lugo again this offseason (if they decide to move either for any reason). They also have baggage every year due to injuries (Clement, Schill, etc.) or have shed sunk costs (mostly bullpen flameouts) and we have seen no repercussions as to them being financially hamstrung because of any of these situations.

Further, I am hoping we can someday put to bed the notion that the Sox have a fixed budget heading into any offseason, any trade deadline or any draft. This is an obvious concern for a majority of teams out there, but the Red Sox are not one of them. If nothing else, the Sox have shown over the last few years that they are a team that focuses on perceived value and return on their $. If the value is there, they will spend the money. Any choice they make to not spend is based on principle, not a lack of fundage. If the big money kid falls to them in the 8th round, they will make the pick, put a price tag on him and sign him if they can. They have done an amazing job of maximizing revenue from the park and NESN and adding new streams (the racing team) and they have shown they will spend that money when appropriate.

I venture to say the Sox will never let one of those draft guys slide if they honestly think they can convince him to sign for a figure they deem reasonable and appropriate. Nor do I think they will ever get to a trade deadline, meet a price in prospects they think is fair and then balk based on the $$ they would take on.

I just don't see the production upside of having Lowe as a Wakefield replacement as that big given the likely cost.

Why does it have to be one or the other?

Last I checked, we have 3 rotations spots assured next year: Beckett, Dice-K and Lester. The other two will need to filled by acquisitions or by prospects.

Personally, I don't feel comfortable heading into 2009 counting on Bowden or Buchholz filling a spot for 30 competitive starts. I think Masterson should stay right where he is and become a '70s style reliever, i.e. 100+ IPs. So my dream would be that we find two SPs, even if Wake is one of them. I would feel much better heading into 2009 with the knowledge that we have 5 solid starters that we can reasonably expect to be competitive on a nightly basis and a couple AAA guys ready to fill in if needed or provide trade ammo if the situation arises. (This is to say nothing of the fact that one of those guys might be moved for a young C in the near future).


Sign Lowe, Teix, bring back Wake, add some bench help, a couple bullpen arms to throw against the wall and call it a day....

Edited by Papelbon's Poutine, 23 October 2008 - 07:36 PM.

[TheYellowDart5]

One other note about Lowe.

A poster a page or so back remarked on how difficult it is to find a comp for Lowe going forward. Baseball Reference agrees: Of the 15 different pitchers listed as comps in general and through age 35, all but two of them bounced back and forth over the course of their careers between the rotation and the bullpen. The two that made the transition from reliever to starter? Ken Forsch and the Gambler, Kenny Rogers.

Forsch broke into the majors in 1970 with the Astros, started for a few years until he was turned into a reliever in 1974, and then rejoined the rotation in 1979 at 32. He spent the next five years as a starter with Houston and California (nee Anaheim), got injured in 1984, tried a comeback in 1986, and ultimately retired. Over those five years in two leagues, Forsch averaged a shade over 200 innings per season. In that time, he had a low strikeout ratio but balanced that out by not walking many and by keeping the ball in the yard. Unfortunately, Fangraphs doesn't have GB/FB/LD rates from that time period, so just how good a comp he is for Lowe isn't clear. I suppose the important thing here is that Forsch was out of baseball by 37, although in that time he'd racked up ~2100 IP. Lowe, as of right now, is at 1,940.

As for Rogers, he fits roughly the same profile as Forsch and Lowe: Not many strikeouts, decent control, didn't allow many HR, and, at least in Rogers' case, was more of a GB pitcher than anything else. Rogers was an effective starter up until 2007 (his age 42 season) before cratering last year. If 2008 was indeed the Gambler's last hurrah, then he'll retire with an amazing 3302 IP, nearly all of those as a starter. Of course, Rogers is also a lefty, so that probably helped him get by a bit longer than most.

Further compounding matters is that, as noted, neither pitcher (I'm assuming that, in the case of Forsch) was as extreme a GB pitcher as Lowe is. All that said, Forsch is probably the best comparison for Lowe out of B-Ref's list of pitchers.

EDIT: FWIW, Lowe became a starter at 29; about 1600 or so of his IP have come as a starter. Forsch, meanwhile, also had about 1600 IP as a starter in his career.

Edited by TheYellowDart5, 23 October 2008 - 08:23 PM.

[OBPercent1]

All this is simple posturing by D-Lowe and Boras to throw his hat into the Boston ring to drive up his price. 99% chance he does not sign with us and simply goes with the money this is his last big payday.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

All this is simple posturing by D-Lowe and Boras to throw his hat into the Boston ring to drive up his price. 99% chance he does not sign with us and simply goes with the money this is his last big payday.

The guy doesn't have enough prospective interest, he needs to throw Boston into the ring to up his price? Go back to the original article of this thread and check out the teams that will be in the mix. In fact, if you made a list of the top 10 contending teams that needed SP help this offseason, the Sox would be towards the bottom of that list.

Look there's a very good chance the Sox don't sign him. That could be for a number of reasons - he gets an offer he can't refuse; the Sox don't show interest; etc. In fact, the odds probably play that they won't, regardless of any specifics.

But it's common knowledge that this guy basically begged the Sox to resign him four years ago. It's also common knowledge that the Sox let him walk because they weren't interested, for whatever reason. He then went and spent four years in the apathetic glow of LA fans. Is it that hard to believe he might honestly miss it here, the only place he had ever played?

Did anyone think Arroyo or Millar were posturing when they got to new cities and publicly reminisced about playing Boston?

There's going to be plenty of interest in Derek Lowe this offseason. Not that he will need it, but if he's looking to up his price by talking to the media, citing a team that bascially left you for dead four years ago isn't exactly the best way to go about it - that's like harping on the ex-wife that divorced you because you think it will get the girl in the bar to go home with you...

[Ananti]

Derek Lowe will basically give up what Tim Wakefield gives us in terms of innings and ERA, not require his own caddy, but with less variance in the quality of one outing to the next, which makes him a more attractive candidate to start game 4 in a 7 game series.

Is the upgrade worth the extra 6 million a year? Also keep in mind that Wakefield is extremely unlike to be still pitching the next 4 years.

I guess the real issue is how confident the Sox are that they can get 2 regular (at least average) starters out of Buchholz, Masterson and Bowden over the next year or 2. If they can, they're better off with Wakefield for another year. If not, then they have to replace Wakefield either this year or next and they might as well do it with Lowe.

[paulftodd]

I do not see D-Lowe being back with the Red Sox, reunions like this never seem to work out very well. He might end up with the Yankees with Manny, but the Fenway IF plays too fast for a guy who lives off GB's, while the MFY lost their lawn mower to help Wang, and this could help Lowe.

[PedroKsBambino]

I do not see D-Lowe being back with the Red Sox, reunions like this never seem to work out very well. He might end up with the Yankees with Manny, but the Fenway IF plays too fast for a guy who lives off GB's, while the MFY lost their lawn mower to help Wang, and this could help Lowe.

Possible, but the Yankees IF defense is likely to continue to be a real question mark. They'll upgrade 1B from Giambi (it's hard to imagine a new 1B who wouldn't be a real ugprade there) but will remain bad at SS, mediocre at 2B, and solid but aging at 3B. That's on top of their field being a complete unknown next year---it'll likely be a nice field, but how it plays we don't know.

So, I don't think that's a likely determining factor for Lowe and if it is, NY is not the likely landing spot, imo

[TheYellowDart5]

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - As recently as seven weeks ago, a return to Boston for former Red Sox [team stats]pitcher Derek Lowe seemed possible, perhaps even likely.

Lowe, who pitched for the Sox between 1997 and 2004, is finishing a four-year, $36 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and will be eligible for free agency next month. He would welcome a return to the Sox, who would have been interested in bringing him back to provide depth to the starting rotation.

But that was before Lowe had a monster September and a strong playoff, likely upping his asking price beyond what the Sox believe is fair value.

Source: http://www.bostonher...l...18&srvc=rss

[TheYellowDart5]

In Epstein's meetings with agent Scott Boras today, Derek Lowe's name is bound to come up as well. Lowe has made it clear to this reporter that Boston would be his No. 1 choice. The Red Sox might hesitate to give him the money or the contract length he wants. Yet Lowe, who lives in Fort Myers, Fla., might -- and I emphasize might -- be willing to take a little less to return to Boston.

Source: http://www.boston.co...tt_worth_e.html