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2008 ALCS: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

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#351 ToeKneeArmAss

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Posted 21 October 2008 - 10:55 PM

In a similar vein, I stitched together the game-by-game fangraphs win expectancy data, and converted it to an ALCS Win Expectancy chart. I used the same approximation that's inherent in sibpin's table above (namely that the outcome of a game at its outset is a 50/50 proposition, which allows me to calculate the ALCS win expectancy at the beginning and end of each game).

The overall ALCS chart looks like this:

Posted Image

What this view fails to illustrate is the drama that was innings 7-9 in game 5. To see that better, I converted the vertical axis to a log scale (ALCS Win Expectancy bottomed out at 0.175% after Upton's double off Paps in the 7th ... well, until the third out of the ninth in game 7, that is :rolleyes: ).

Posted Image

In fact, when Lowrie came to the plate with 2 out in the ninth of game 7, their chances of winning the series were 20x higher (2000% higher) than they were after Upton's double in game 5.

#352 saintnick912

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Posted 21 October 2008 - 11:16 PM

SoSH's own Frisbetarian has an article up on The Hardball Times with a good series recap.

This is no fluke. The Rays deserve to represent the American League in the World Series. They finished first in the toughest division on baseball, the American League East, largely because they won the season series against the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox. They then beat the Red Sox in the playoffs, and there is no doubt the better team won.

Well done Fris.