1181 replies to this topic

[mt8thsw9th]

All of those against Percival, down a run in the 9th?

Troy Percival might possibly be the most extreme flyball pitcher in baseball.

[Obscure Name]

Coco has never hit into a DP against Percival.

[NomarRS05]

You know, the last time a former Florida Marlin walked in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out and a speedy base stealing type on the bench, Tito called the play correctly. Imagine if fucking Bill Mueller had flailed like a bastard trying to bunt while Dave Roberts stood on first base? Who knows where we would be right now.

Honestly, I love Tito and all he has done, but one thing that has bothered me for a while is that he completely bought into the David Ortiz phenomenon and plans every single one of his late game strategies around making sure Ortiz gets to bat. I understand where that comes from, but that David Ortiz is not here right now.

The correct thing to do was to bring in Ellsbury and give him at least one strike to get to second. You have a closer who isn't particularly adept at holding guys on. If you really want to bunt (I suspect Tek called this play for himself anyway), it is easier to steal second and bunt to third than vice-versa. Then if they walk Ortiz you can try a safety squeeze with Coco or something. And with his speed, they would have to play the infield in because they would need good luck for a DP.

I think you're really onto something with Tito buying into Ortiz a little too much. If there's one thing we know about Tito, it's that he does a good job of incorporating recent trends and numbers into his game-by-game decisions. Maybe he'll realize soon that this just isn't the same Ortiz.

[nazz45]

In fact, in 80 career PA with 1-3, he's only hit into 2 DP.

All against Percival, though?

Geez, E5, it's obviously not a guarantee that he gets the run home in that situation, but the probability that he does is greater than the chances of a GDP based on Crisp's speed, let alone Percival's 67 percent fly ball rate this season. Isn't that fair?

[mt8thsw9th]

Troy Percival has induced 17 DPs in 682 appearances in the majors.

[Zupcic Fan]

I must admit to being surprised. when I came out to check the game thread, I knew that there would be the usual moaning and complaining about every single decision that didn't work----but I thought the main focus would be on the decision to pitch Papelbon in the 7-1 game which made this his third appearance in a row, I think-----and I don't even see that mentioned. Interesting.

Edited by Zupcic Fan, 09 September 2008 - 10:27 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

The correct thing to do was to bring in Ellsbury and give him at least one strike to get to second. You have a closer who isn't particularly adept at holding guys on. If you really want to bunt (I suspect Tek called this play for himself anyway), it is easier to steal second and bunt to third than vice-versa. Then if they walk Ortiz you can try a safety squeeze with Coco or something. And with his speed, they would have to play the infield in because they would need good luck for a DP.

But doesn't that just assume that everything works out perfectly?

Let's say that they do run for Kotsay immediately. Everyone in the ballpark knows the steal is likely. Given that, what if the Rays pick the right pitch to pitch out and Ellsbury is thrown out? Then this entire thread is about how obvious it was that the steal was on.

The inning was screwed up, no doubt. but the game was lost in the top of the 9th, not the bottom

[Ed Hillel]

Is there really a debate going on about whether or not it would be better to have the chance at a sac fly or to not have that chance? If you're given a scenario where you know that the Sox will have 1st and 3rd with 1 out and a hot Coco Crisp up I think that's a no-brainer.

[AgentOrange]

Troy Percival has induced 17 DPs in 682 appearances in the majors.

How many of those appearances were against Crisp with one out and runners on first and third in the ninth though?

[Ed Hillel]

I must admit to being surprised. when I came out to check the game thread, I knew that there would be the usual moaning and complaining about every single decision that didn't work----but I thought the main focus would be on the decision to pitch Papelbon in the 7-1 game which made this his third appearance in a row, I think-----and I don't even see that mentioned. Interesting.

The sac bunt was absolutely terrible, especially with Percival showing signs of wildness, but here's another question.

Why did Paps need to come in to a 7-1 game on Sunday? People were questioning it then and it seemed like a pertinent question, with no off-day and 3 coming up against TB. Now it seems even more so.

Maybe you have me on ignore, which is understandable.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 09 September 2008 - 10:29 PM.

[roundegotrip]

I think you're really onto something with Tito buying into Ortiz a little too much. If there's one thing we know about Tito, it's that he does a good job of incorporating recent trends and numbers into his game-by-game decisions. Maybe he'll realize soon that this just isn't the same Ortiz.

I think it's less a lack of realization and more Tito trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[E5 Yaz]

I must admit to being surprised. when I came out to check the game thread, I knew that there would be the usual moaning and complaining about every single decision that didn't work----but I thought the main focus would be on the decision to pitch Papelbon in the 7-1 game which made this his third appearance in a row, I think-----and I don't even see that mentioned. Interesting.

Post 1090

[smastroyin]

But doesn't that just assume that everything works out perfectly?

Let's say that they do run for Kotsay immediately. Everyone in the ballpark knows the steal is likely. Given that, what if the Rays pick the right pitch to pitch out and Ellsbury is thrown out? Then this entire thread is about how obvious it was that the steal was on.

The inning was screwed up, no doubt. but the game was lost in the top of the 9th, not the bottom

That doesn't rely on everything. My only point is that if you want to have the foolishness of playing for a single run with small ball, then the best way to do it is to have Ellsbury start the inning with a steal attempt. If he can't be trusted to make an accurate judgement, then you let it go. At the very least, if they start thinking about pitchouts, maybe they think less about throwing their pitch properly.

[mt8thsw9th]

Is there really a debate going on about whether or not it would be better to have the chance at a sac fly or to not have that chance? If you're given a scenario where you know that the Sox will have 1st and 3rd with 1 out and a hot Coco Crisp up I think that's a no-brainer.

Against possibly one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in the history of the game (I'd imagine there aren't few with a lower GB% than him), with one of the fastest players in the league on third, with a player that would be tough to double up even if Percival did induce a ground ball.

[E5 Yaz]

How many of those appearances were against Crisp with one out and runners on first and third in the ninth though?

Exactly!

[trekfan55]

You know, the last time a former Florida Marlin walked in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out and a speedy base stealing type on the bench, Tito called the play correctly. Imagine if fucking Bill Mueller had flailed like a bastard trying to bunt while Dave Roberts stood on first base? Who knows where we would be right now.

Honestly, I love Tito and all he has done, but one thing that has bothered me for a while is that he completely bought into the David Ortiz phenomenon and plans every single one of his late game strategies around making sure Ortiz gets to bat. I understand where that comes from, but that David Ortiz is not here right now.

The correct thing to do was to bring in Ellsbury and give him at least one strike to get to second. You have a closer who isn't particularly adept at holding guys on. If you really want to bunt (I suspect Tek called this play for himself anyway), it is easier to steal second and bunt to third than vice-versa. Then if they walk Ortiz you can try a safety squeeze with Coco or something. And with his speed, they would have to play the infield in because they would need good luck for a DP.

I know Tito gave the green light to Roberts in Game 4, but I'm pretty sure I read a Dave Roberts interview where the 1st base coach was giving the bunt sign to Mueller and Roberts told him not to, because he was stealing 2nd base. I'm 99% sure of this, but finding a link will be all but impossible.

[E5 Yaz]

Against possibly one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in the history of the game (I'd imagine there aren't few with a lower GB% than him), with one of the fastest players in the league on third, with a player that would be tough to double up even if Percival did induce a ground ball.

The argument would make more sense had Crisp managed to fly out. But since he didn't get the ball out of the infield, what makes anyone believe he would have hit a sac fly with one out?

[smastroyin]

I think it's less a lack of realization and more Tito trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I should be clear. Even if David Ortiz was fully healthy (which he's not), nobody is capable of maintaining performance like his from October of 04 through 2006. And especially now, this is a lineup which is more balanced than a HR hitting machine. So actually, if the other guys want to give you a free baserunner, it's probably in your interest to take them up on it.

You had hot Coco coming up, Jed Lowrie after him, and JD Drew on the bench. I don't think the strategy of "let's watch and see Ortiz win this game for us" is particularly effective.

ALL OF THAT SAID. Thinking rationally, Tito probably 100% agree with me, and was merely holding Ellsbury to PR for Ortiz if Ortiz happened to reach, since Kotsay is a decent runner himself. And Tito didn't want to play smallball, Tek decided on his own to bunt. I think that is the most rational answer. Why Tek would decide to do that is beyond me, though.

[rembrat]

Papelbon pitched in the Texas game because he had gone 5 days without working. That is the reason. I guess, managers and closers sometimes have an understanding that no matter the score, they will see some action to “shake off the rust”.

(3 appearances in a row for Papelbon this year)
Jul 6th - 8th (Nyy, Min, Min)
Jul 21st - 23rd (Sea, Sea, Sea)

Edited by rembrat, 09 September 2008 - 10:38 PM.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

You can debate several aspects of this game. Bottom line is it was a modest cockpunch, albeit one that you can recover from.

[mt8thsw9th]

The argument would make more sense had Crisp managed to fly out. But since he didn't get the ball out of the infield, what makes anyone believe he would have hit a sac fly with one out?

There's not a possibility that Crisp approaches a 2 outs, runner on second at bat different than a 1 out, 1st and 3rd at bat? In the former, he's 100% concerned about hitting the ball where the fielders aren't.

[CR67dream]

That doesn't rely on everything. My only point is that if you want to have the foolishness of playing for a single run with small ball, then the best way to do it is to have Ellsbury start the inning with a steal attempt. If he can't be trusted to make an accurate judgement, then you let it go. At the very least, if they start thinking about pitchouts, maybe they think less about throwing their pitch properly.

If you're going to pinch run, you might as well do it right off the bat. Percival was wild, and rattled, and putting Ellsbury at 1st would have added another thing for him to think about, steal or not. The mere threat would have changed the entire dynamic, and why the hell wouldn't you want the fastest guy out there regardless? Puzzling shit.

[roundegotrip]

And Tito didn't want to play smallball, Tek decided on his own to bunt. I think that is the most rational answer. Why Tek would decide to do that is beyond me, though.

Yeah, rational would definitely be a relative term in this case.

[mt8thsw9th]

Papelbon pitched in the Texas game because he had gone 5 days without working. That is the reason. I guess, managers and closers sometimes have an understanding that no matter the score, they will see some action to “shake off the rust”.

So why did Terry allow him to go 5 days without working, then? Either way, pitching him on Sunday was a poor move.

[E5 Yaz]

In the former, he's 100% concerned about hitting the ball where the fielders aren't.

I thought that was the idea for any at-bat

[rembrat]

So why did Terry allow him to go 5 days without working, then? Either way, pitching him on Sunday was a poor move.

I have to correct myself. I believe it was a 4 game gap with an off day. I’m not sure but these gaps (where closers don’t pitch) tend to happen over the course of a season.

[roundegotrip]

I thought that was the idea for any at-bat

Unless your goal is to hit a sac fly, in which case 100% of your focus is on hitting the deepest fly ball you can.

[Norm Siebern]

I have sat here for 30 seconds staring at a blank white space on the screen trying to think of the words to type that express my emotional views as to how much I fucking hate Jason Varitek. From his moronic refusal to call for any pitch aside from a fastball in the top of the ninth to his utterly brain dead at bat in the bottom of the ninth when all he fucking had to do was stand there and get hit in the thigh to put two runners on base with no one out and David Ortiz due up....

Jesus Fucking Christ Varitek, I cannot believe nor put into words how utterly dog shit dumb your ninth inning was. You stupid fuckin cunt.

Now that fucking shit team from Tampa has their biggest win of the season and lets them off the hook. Now there is no pressure on them, when if the Red Sox Captain just uses ten percent of his so called brilliant baseball mind, there is a thousand pound stone of pressure choking Tampa's fucking throat. They werre in second place, having lost five starigt games and facing Josh Beckett tomorrow. Jesus fucking Christ. Fucking fuck fucker. Fuck you Varitek. Fuck you.

This week absolutely blows.

[Foulkey Reese]

I wish I could make that entire post my sig.

[Hildy]

Grrr. Just got back from the game. Frustrating is understating it. What a waste of a great come-from-behind effort and the chance take the divsion lead, further demoralizing a young team battling a skid.

And whoever said that the crowd was howling for every warning track ball was correct and it was annoying.

Edited by Hildy, 09 September 2008 - 11:28 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

Norm that's one of the best reaction posts I've ever read. Kudos.

[roundegotrip]

Jesus fucking Christ. Fucking fuck fucker. Fuck you Varitek. Fuck you.

But tell us how you really feel.