[satyadaimoku]

Here

Jonathan Papelbon voted 8th most likely rookie to contribute in 2006, Crisp voted 3rd most likely to have a breakout season, Lowell 8th most likely to have the biggest comeback.

On Paps:

Quote

In his second full pro season -- and second as a starter -- Papelbon shot right up to Fenway Park and was a major contributor to the Red Sox bullpen down the stretch. The organization wants him to start, to see him as a 700-out-a-year horse, and at 25, he is ready to step in and do it now. The Red Sox love his bring-it-on makeup, but one Boston official warns, "The worst thing would be to start comparing him to Roger Clemens. No one else in modern baseball history is as good as Clemens. Why should we ask a rookie to try?"

On Coco:

Quote

"He has gone to the right place -- big crowds, pressure," says one NL GM. "He will love the attention, and as one of the best fastball hitters in the game, he will prosper in front of Manny and Ortiz." Here's his career track over the last three years: 15-24-42 doubles, 3-15-16 homers, .655-.730-.810 OPS.

Question: is there anything that really justifies this comment:

Quote

8. Matt Murton, OF, Cubs: The Red Sox could not have won the 2004 World Series without including him in the Nomar Garciaparra trade, but they wish they had him back. Murton jumped from Double-A, had a .907 OPS and showed the Cubs that not only can he hit, but he can run and has makeup that's off the charts.

I've never understood why Murton was necessary in the Garciaparra deal. Beyond the talent discrepency in that deal, wasn't Theo quoted somewhere saying that we could have gotten Cabrera for Garciaparra straight up, but we included Murton in order to get Mientkiewicz included in the deal? If so, I don't see how Mientkiewicz was necessary to win the 2004 World Series. The only memorable thing I remember him doing in the 2004 season was stealing the game ball in Game 4 of the World Series. Am I forgetting some key defensive play along the way?

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, and I'm not trying to blast Theo for a minor mistake in a deal that ultimately brought us a World Series championship. But in retrospect, it's hard to say that the inclusion of Murton helped our franchise. Murton would be a nice player to have right now and half of a season of Mientkiewicz wasn't much of a return for him.

This post has been edited by satyadaimoku: 12 February 2006 - 09:35 PM

[Bowlerman9]

Quote

I've never understood why Murton was necessary in the Garciaparra deal. Beyond the talent discrepency in that deal, wasn't Theo quoted somewhere saying that we could have gotten Cabrera for Garciaparra straight up, but we included Murton in order to get Mientkiewicz included in the deal?

I guess its possible, but Minnesota never received a second player in the deal. So either Chicago pulled one over on Theo, or there was more to the deal than we knew.

And yes, I know Minn was supposed to get someone else but never figured out who. But they still only got 1 player back, and it wasnt Murton, so assuming Murton alone got us Minky is a bit of a stretch.

[TheoShmeo]

satyadaimoku, on Feb 12 2006, 09:30 PM, said:

Here

The only memorable thing I remember him doing in the 2004 season was stealing the game ball in Game 4 of the World Series. Am I forgetting some key defensive play along the way?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can't remember one particular play that Minkiewicz made that was in itself pivotal -- though I do remember a low throw by Mueller that Minky dug out with Timlin on the mound in, I think, the top of the 8th of one of the Yankee or Cardinal games that seemed very big at the time. But, apart from any specific individual plays, just the fact that they were able to bring in a strong defensive first baseman in place of Millar for late inning defense played a role, I think. It had to be comforting to the pitchers and the other infielders that Minky was over there, and that may have had an impact on how they collectivley played. And I do remember several times after August 1 when I thought that Millar never would have made a play that Doug made which, if true, shortened innings and played a role -- who knows how important -- in the great run they went on in August/September and the playoffs thereafter.

All that said, I'd like to have Murton in the system right now and was very pissed off that he'd been included. [Addition/clarification: Not that I'd do ANYTHING -- if it were possible -- to undo any element of the sequence of events in 2004 that lead to October 27.]

This post has been edited by TheoShmeo: 12 February 2006 - 10:35 PM

[Deweys New Stance]

TheoShmeo, on Feb 12 2006, 09:42 PM, said:

I can't remember one particular play that Minkiewicz made that was in itself pivotal -- though I do remember a low throw by Mueller that Minky dug out with Timlin on the mound in, I think, the top of the 8th of one of the Yankee or Cardinal games that seemed very big at the time.  <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It was the bottom of the eighth of game 7 of the ALCS, on a ground ball hit by Jeter to lead off the inning. Even with the Sox leading 9-3 at the time, and only needing six more outs, keeping Jeter off the bases to lead off the inning felt like a pretty big play, because it allowed Timlin to get through a relatively easy inning and get into the ninth with an even bigger lead. Tough to say that play alone was worth giving up Murton, though.

edit: Bowlerman9 makes a very good point below about that Millar play a year earlier, although I'm not convinced that Pedro would have made it through the eighth unscathed even without the extra 25 pitches. And if he had, Grady would have probably just thrown him out there for the ninth. But it certainly wouldn't have hurt to have the firstbaseman make that play cleanly on Wilson to end the 7th.

This post has been edited by Deweys New Stance: 12 February 2006 - 10:27 PM

[Bowlerman9]

Watch the 7th inning of Game 7 in 2003. Then imagine what would have happened if Pedro didnt have to throw an extra 25 pitches that inning.

Then imagine October 27th in 2004.

Thank you Minky. Goodbye Murton.

[Corsi Combover]

Not worth worrying about. We won the title with Minky. We may not have won it without him. That's good enough for me.

[Harry Hooper]

DM as starting 2B and backup C in August games of '04 enabled the Sox to get through some risky roster hijinks.

[reggiecleveland]

I expect the "you can't prove this with numbers" guys to jump on this, but I will always beleive Millars hot streak in part came because he had a little pressure on him. At any rate Millar had stunk most of the year. The fact he went on a tear kept Minky on the bench, but his hot steeak was not a guarantee so having a legitmate option was a good move.

[Hobson's Choice]

CUBS
Nomar Garciaparra
Matt Murton
cash

RED SOX
Orlando Cabrera
Doug Mientkewicz

EXPOS
Alex Gonzalez
Francis Beltran
Brendan Harris

TWINS
Justin Jones


Hendry (Cubs GM) had the leverage here; in essence, the Cubs acquired O-Cab and Mientkiewicz from the Expos/Twins, and had an arrangement to move them to Boston for Nomar and cash. Theo was obliged to add a prospect or have the trade fall through, which is Hendry doing his job. Theo did a lot better with Henri Stanley...

[Rough Carrigan]

reggiecleveland, on Feb 13 2006, 01:57 AM, said:

I expect the "you can't prove this with numbers" guys to jump on this, but I will always beleive Millars hot streak in part came because he had a little pressure on him. At any rate Millar had stunk most of the year. The fact he went on a tear kept Minky on the bench, but his hot steeak was not a guarantee so having a legitmate option was a good move.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The biggest part of Millar's hot streak in 2004 ocurred before EyeChart ever got here. Millar had 3 homers against the mfy's on July 23, a couple hits (IIRC) in the fight game on July 24, and a homer off Adebisi, um, Contreras on July 25. If anything, Millar cooled off a bit when Eyechart came to the team on August 1

[Grubbery]

I seem to recall at least two games where Minky's glove was HUGE in the regular season. He was a late inning replacement in at least one, and may have started the other.

In one, a rocket was hit up the line where Minky turned, made two or three lonnng steps into the outfield, laid out and snagged off the bag with his back to the infield, got up and ran to make the tag. KFK might make that grab, but I can't see him making it back to the bag.

The other was a shot to his right that Minky caught falling back, kept his foot on the bag, and caught the runner at second for a DP. I can't see Millar making a play like that to his right, much less a throw from his knees with any mustard.

Both cases were inning killers with runners in scoring position that would have at least tied the game.

Additionally, there were also any number of OC/Bellhorn DPs that he dug out with that ridiculous leg split he can do (and would have sent KFK to the DL for two weeks if he tried).

Obviously they don't impact the ALCS or WS directly, but they did factor into that terrific August/Sept when the team finally came together. Perhaps it's easy to forget how frustrating that team was until that streak, but it was plays like those that made all the difference between the .500 team that played from May-July and what happened in the Fall.

That said, my single concern was that Murton could come back to bite us. He was on the verge of coming up here to Portland just prior to the trade, and at the time, the Sea Dogs were kind of dead, prospect-wise (Hanley came up later that season).

This post has been edited by Grubbery: 13 February 2006 - 11:23 AM

[LateRally]

I'll pile on with more anecdotal evidence. As one of many avid game-threaders on this site, I can say for sure that there were many instances in the latter half of '04 when folks would collectively be in awe over a Mientkiewicz defensive gem. And the consensus was almost always that Millar wouldn't have had a prayer in hell of making many of those plays. I have no idea how many runs or games those plays may have saved, but there's no question in my mind he was a noticeably signficant upgrade with the glove.

[yecul]

Boston got good return and had a fantastic outcome to that trade. Both Cabrera and Mientkalphabet complemented the team nicely and clearly the end result makes us all happy.

However, in terms of actual value in a vacuum, Boston does not come out on top in this trade. Perhaps I overvalue Nomar and undervalue the players they got, but Murton is definitely a player they'd still like to have in the system who may already have made a ML impact for them with all the injuries last year.

Sometimes you have to give value to get what you need. This was certainly the case and a comparison could be drawn to the Crisp-Marte deal. If Crisp is a quality contributor for Boston and they win the Series in the next few years, is it as big of a deal if Marte goes on to great success as well? We can always play the "what if" game, but, even though I do not like adding Murton to that deal, it's pretty clear that it was the only way that deal was going to happen. Putting the deal together last minute (according to reports it was right at the deadline) probably didn't help in that respect.

[smastroyin]

Hi guys, this is your friendly neighborhood moderator reminding you that we have already had a thank you doug Mientkiewicz thread as well as at least three threads discussing this trade. I realize this is the most boring time of the baseball year (except for the truck leaving), but I think we can come up with something better, like maybe discussing the actual Red Sox players that Gammons was talking about.

Thanks

This post has been edited by smastroyin: 13 February 2006 - 12:01 PM

[anaxamandr]

One thing Gammo pointed out, and I know it has been discussed elsewhere, is that the Angels have multiple very capable players at SS, a position of need for the Sox in the coming off season. I do not expect Alex Gonzalez is any more than a one year solution who can deliver replacement level offense (if we are lucky...) and average to above average defense. At this point, I think it is reasonable to believe Pedroia will continue his career at 2B replacing Loretta next year and getting some playing time this year. This status of Dustin's future position, I suppose, will be somewhat clarified at the start of spring training, when the Sox make a decision to work him out at SS now that Hanley is gone or continue to play him at 2B.

Orlando Cabrera is signed until '06 at 06:$6.5M, 07:$7.5M, 08:$9M according to Cots Baseball Contracts, effectively blocking both Brandon Wood and Eric Aybar. That means the Red Sox should be in a position to obtain one of these two players for a relatively reasonable pachage, probably using one or two of their young minor league pitchers. A move like this could potentially lock up a very talented player at a skill position on the cheap.

A brief break down:
Brandon Wood, AAA Salt Lake Bees the California League's Most Valuable Player, led the league in home runs (43), RBI (115, tied), doubles (50), slugging percentage (.668), extra-base hits (97), and runs scored (109). Set an Angels minor league record with 43 homers in 2005.

Eric Aybar, AA Cedar Rapids Kernels hit .303, slugged .445 w/ an obp of only .339, since he apparently, never walks ever.

Neither is a slouch. For comparison, I provide Hanley Ramirez hit .271 with 6 HRs 52 rbis w/ 39 walks.

The Sox could stand to give up something pretty good to get one of these guys. Two problems:
1) the Angels don't seem too keen to give up either one of these guys.
2) I don't see the Angels as a great match for Wells, Clement or Graffanino, or obvious trade bait

One question: can the Sox trade Jed Lowrie to get one of these guys or is he off limits because he has just been drafted?

Edit: cleaned up.

This post has been edited by anaxamandr: 13 February 2006 - 07:01 PM

[Pumpsie]

Quote

Orlando Cabrera is signed until '06 at 06:$6.5M, 07:$7.5M, 08:$9M according to Cots Baseball Contracts, effectively blocking both Brandon Wood and Eric Aybar. That means the Red Sox should be in a position to obtain one of these two players for a relatively reasonable pachage, probably using one or two of their young minor league pitchers. A move like this could potentially lock up a very talented player at a skill position on the cheap.

You're completely ignoring the fact that there are 28 other ML teams besides the Angels and Sox. If just ONE of those teams is interested in one of these players (and trust me, at least one will be), the price gets blown way up past "one or two minor league pitchers." The Angels will probably keep both Wood and Aybar, unless someone blows them away for one of them. The only player you mentioned who is going to go "reasonably" is Cabrera. They're already shopping him.

[The Gray Eagle]

Also, minor league SS get moved to other positions all the time. Most likely, if Wood is for real, he'll eventually take over the job and Cabrera will be ditched for as little damage as possible. Then they can move Aybar to second base or even the OF, or trade him for full value.

At any rate, what I'm clumsily trying to say is that if one of the young guys eventually wins the SS job, the other could change positions or be traded to any number of teams.

[anaxamandr]

Pumpsie, I am sorry if i didn't make it clear. Obviously there is no way to get either of these guys w/o giving up something substantial. The Sox have pieces we would like to move in the majors plus minor league pitchers. I feel like if they made a push and offered a good package sooner rather than later, they could go get this thing done and be set for the future at SS.

Anyway, here is a list of all mlb teams and their starting shortstops. I have starred teams that are likely going to be looking for better talent there. I haven't checked each teams minor leagues, but I imagine some of them will also have talent approaching the mlb level at SS. There just aren't a whole lot of teams that are as desperate at short as the Sox.

AL:
BALTIMORE   Miguel Tejada
*BOSTON     Alex Gonzalez
NY YANKEES  Derek Jeter
TAMPA BAY   Julio Lugo
*TORONTO     Russ Adams	
CHICAGO     Juan Uribe
CLEVELAND   Jhonny Peralta
DETROIT     Carlos Guillen
KANSAS CITY Angel Berroa
MINNESOTA   Jason Bartlett
LOS ANGELES Orlando Cabrera
OAKLAND     Bobby Crosby
SEATTLE     Mike Morse
TEXAS       Michael Young
     
NL:
ATLANTA       Edgar Renteria
FLORIDA       Hanley Ramirez
NY METS       Jose Reyes
PHILADELPHIA  Jimmy Rollins
*WASHINGTON    Cristian Guzman
CHICAGO       Ronny Cedeno
CINCINNATI    Felipe Lopez	
HOUSTON       Adam Everett
MILWAUKEE     J.J. Hardy
PITTSBURGH    Jack Wilson
*ST. LOUIS     David Eckstein
*ARIZONA       Craig Counsell
COLORADO      Clint Barmes
LOS ANGELES   Rafael Furcal
SAN DIEGO     Khalil Greene
*SAN FRANCISCO Omar Vizquel

For completeness, here is a list of the free agents to be at short. It doesn't look like many teams are going to be losing their starters next year either.
SS Free Agent in 06-07:
Tomas Perez (club option)
Kazuo Matsui (can opt for either free agency or arb.)
Craig Counsell
Julio Lugo
Chris Gomez
Rich Aurilia (Mutual Option)
Deivi Cruz
Lou Merloni
Manny Alexander
Alex Gonzalez
Jose Vizcaino
Jose Valentin

So, Sox FO, my point is, why not try to get this done before one or both of these guys explodes on the scene any more than they have already.

(Thanks to mlb4u.com for all this info.)

Edit: you can't bold inside code tags.

This post has been edited by anaxamandr: 13 February 2006 - 09:02 PM

[Pumpsie]

Quote

Pumpsie, I am sorry if i didn't make it clear. Obviously there is no way to get either of these guys w/o giving up something substantial. The Sox have pieces we would like to move in the majors plus minor league pitchers. I feel like if they made a push and offered a good package sooner rather than later, they could go get this thing done and be set for the future at SS.

Well, that's a valid point. Perhaps they want to see AGon and Pedroia up close first. Then, if they don't think either is going to be a good long-term solution, early in the season might be a good time to try to make a deal for one of these guys, ...but it won't be cheap.

[Corsi Combover]

St. Louis is going to be looking for an upgrade at SS? Why?