TomRicardo, on Sep 3 2008, 09:47 AM, said:
It was still a huge mistake taking Masterson out of the rotation for Buchholz, one that probably cost us the divison.
This is doubtful unless they lose the division by one or two games. Not only do you have to presume Masterson's continued success as a starter (which was in question at the time), but you have to replace his innings in the bullpen.
Regardless, you could take this statement and say "David Ortiz hitting 200 points below expecated OPS probably cost us the division."
You could say "Josh Beckett pitching essentially as badly as he did in 2006 probably cost us the division."
You could say "Jason Varitek's three months of hitting worse than a random SoSHer taking his plate appearances probably cost us the division."
You could say "Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima being at a lower level than they were in 2007 cost us the division."
You could say "A bizarre inability to transform hits and walks into runs at an efficient level cost us the division."
You could say "The team still managed to underperform Pythag. even based on the already deflated run scoring and that cost us the division."
You could say "The starting lineup as of today has missed roughly 200 games due to injury (OK it helped in Lugo's case) cost us the division."
Despite these things, the team is most likely going to make the playoffs and can have a good chance to win the division if they take 4 of their remaining 6 games against the Rays. If they can manage to take 5, they become the favorites for the division. Hey, maybe it's unlikely, but it's not as if the division is conceded at this point.
Theo could have done better but this is the perfect example of taking Branch Rickey's famous axiom that "Luck is the residue of opportunity and design." The Red Sox got "lucky" that they had kids ready to step in, but they wouldn't have needed the kids to step in if they didn't have so much bad luck in the first place.
There are two kinds of light--the glow that illuminates, and the glare that obscures. - James Thurber