154 replies to this topic

[Andrew]

According to NESN Clay Buchholz was just optioned to AA Portland.

[Rough Carrigan]

In the end, each pitcher is responsible for his own work but Clay should be remembered the next time we tally up Farrell's successes and failures. And it ain't a mark in the former category.

[TheShynessClinic]

According to NESN Clay Buchholz was just optioned to AA Portland.

Wow. That was quick. And to Portland no less.

Hopefully the kid will be able to go back to dominating at the AA level, and work on his location (and head) while down there. Maybe we'll see him as a Sept call up at some point. For now, let him work out his problems and get ready for his spot in the rotation in 09.

Edited by TheShynessClinic, 20 August 2008 - 10:03 PM.

[Cuzittt]

Wow. That was quick. And to Portland no less.

Portland makes a lot of sense IF the Sox want him to work with a pitching coach Buchholz has had success with. It is likely that the Sox want him to work with Sea Dogs pitching coach Mike Cather, who worked with Clay last season in Portland and in '06 in Wilmington.

[DieHard3]

The bottom line is that right now Clay Buchholz absolutely sucks. He does not belong on a major league mound, and, quite frankly, I'd be surprised if he can even have success at AAA with the revised arsenal he has under the new mechanics they gave him.

His best pitch right now is his fastball, even though he has no command of it at all. He's throwing 92-94 with some nice late movement, whereas last year his fastball was completely straight. Unfortunately, the mechanical adjustment that has given him that movement, has robbed him of his other two pitches --- the ones that made him a great prospect in the first place.

His curveball is amateurish. It breaks early and sweeps the whole range of the strikezone. This makes it both easy for the batter to lay off of and also nearly impossible for Buchholz to throw for a strike. Last year, he could rely on his curveball even when behind in the count, this year it is a worthless waste pitch effective only against the most impatient of hitters.

The new mechanics have also caused him not only to lose complete control of his changeup, but also straightened it out. Last year his changeup had sideways movement, which conjured images of Pedro's masterpiece. This year, it's nothing but a straight 80 mph slow pitch that he can't throw for strikes, which is just as well because without the movement or deception it's a sitting duck when it's in the strikezone.

Put differently and more succinctly, this delivery isn't going to work. It is not a matter of commanding the pitches under this new delivery -- the pitches generated by this new delivery are not major league caliber. Right now, Kris Johnson is more major league ready than Clay Buchholz.

The change to Clay's mechanics was completely unnecessary, ill-considered, and counterproductive. This latest installment of institutional hubris, of making the perfect the enemy of the very good, has robbed Buchholz of a full season of development, in all likelihood already cost the team any chance at a division title, and could very well still cost them a playoff spot and chance to defend their world title.

They should send him down and scavenge for every bit of video they can find from last season. Let's get him back to last year's mechanics, and ditch this experiment that has turned the best pitching prospect in the game into a certifiable basket case. Unless they quickly rectify this mistake, I would be surprised to ever see Clay Buchholz pitching effectively in the big leagues again.

Edited by DieHard3, 20 August 2008 - 10:25 PM.

[TheShynessClinic]

They should send him down and scavenge for every bit of video they can find from last season. Let's get him back to last year's mechanics, and ditch this experiment that has turned the best pitching prospect in the game into a certifiable basket case. Unless they quickly rectify this mistake, I would be surprised to ever see Clay Buchholz pitching effectively in the big leagues again.

As far as I can recall, and from what Francona said on EEI the other day, they didn't chance his mechanics - they changed his arm slot as to allow him to keep the same release point on his pitches.

This doesn't appear to be another Craig Hansen (Yea, I know Boras and his team changed his mechanics, you get my point), as it wasn't a drastic change of mechanics that occurred.

Edited by TheShynessClinic, 20 August 2008 - 10:34 PM.

[sibpin]

With the double off-days the Sox don't need a fifth starter until August 30. Hopefully, Wakefield will be back then.

Zink (Aug. 13) and Pauley (Aug. 14) were optioned within the last 10 days, so neither could be called up in time for the next game. Should be Chris Smith, who's given up runs in each of his last three outings.

Edited by sibpin, 20 August 2008 - 10:40 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

Sure, the coaching staff should've done this sooner as well, but there's no reason why the player can't take it upon himself to ask to look at the videos to see if there's anything wrong.

I am going to state a hypothesis that could very easily be way off-base, my gut instinct feels it's true but it is based on what is for all intents and purposes a SSS observation. Since the start of the season, I've seen Buchholz out at bars and clubs (from as yuppy as Audobon to as clubby as Gypsy) 5 times. That number by itself does not look high, but it's also 4 higher than I've seen any other Sox player. This could mean nothing more than that he and I like the same bars. I also do not begrudge a young man his fun. But he's also a 24-year-old kid living the big league life, and his failures this year, combined with what I have seen and heard, makes me seriously question his work ethic. There were character questions with him when he was drafted, the Sox obviously were satisfied they were unfounded or minor. It doesn't make him a bad person, but my take is that Buchholz is not putting in the extra effort off the field to maximize his talent. Hopefully in fifteen years we'll be able to draw parallels between him and Schilling pre-and-post-Clemens conversation. If this is the case, I think finishing the year in the minors would be good for him, a wake-up call about how thin the gap between major league success and failure is, and how different the lifestyle and perks are in the minors compared to the bigs. I can't help but wonder if sending him down to Portland instead of Pawtucket is the Sox trying to send that exact message to him.

[WayneHousieHOF]

Monday is Clay Buchholz Bobblehead night in Portland. He’d be in line to pitch then. I’m not sure what that means.

[Pumpsie]

Thank goodness.

The only question I have is "what took so long?"

DH3's analysis of Buchholz's pitches seems spot on to me. Can changing the arm slot make such a difference with all those pitches? In any case, they've turned a promising pitcher into a complete basket case in a manner of months. Horrible outcome.

Something's gone really wrong here, whether it's bar-hopping or mechanics or circadian rhythms. John Farrell's stock, which was sky-high at the start of the year, has plummeted as precipitously as a financial stock.

Portland is the right place for Clay right now. I hope they figure out what's going on and he's back next year and throwing well again.

Sure, the Sox have had some injuries this season but so have the Rays, Yanks, and just about everyone else. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, this $130M+ team should be considered a failure, especially if the freakin' low-rent Twins beat them out. A lot of disappointing players this year, starting with disappointment #1 - Clay Buchholz.

[Sprowl]

His best pitch right now is his fastball, even though he has no command of it at all. He's throwing 92-94 with some nice late movement, whereas last year his fastball was completely straight. Unfortunately, the mechanical adjustment that has given him that movement, has robbed him of his other two pitches --- the ones that made him a great prospect in the first place.

His curveball is amateurish. It breaks early and sweeps the whole range of the strikezone. This makes it both easy for the batter to lay off of and also nearly impossible for Buchholz to throw for a strike. Last year, he could rely on his curveball even when behind in the count, this year it is a worthless waste pitch effective only against the most impatient of hitters.

The new mechanics have also caused him not only to lose complete control of his changeup, but also straightened it out. Last year his changeup had sideways movement, which conjured images of Pedro's masterpiece. This year, it's nothing but a straight 80 mph slow pitch that he can't throw for strikes, which is just as well because without the movement or deception it's a sitting duck when it's in the strikezone.

I have to disagree with the characterization of when the changes to Buchholz's arm slot took place and what effect they had on his repertoire. The change in arm slot (which cannot be distinguished from a change in mechanics, despite Francona's claim -- they have to be considered together) was apparently a change that took place in mid-season during his June demotion. The deterioration in his performance began before the tinkering, during his road losses to Detroit and Minnesota in early May. Prior to those implosions on the road, Buchholz had pitched effectively in 5 of 6 starts, with the exception of a stinker against the Yankees. The critical difference isn't between 2007 and 2008, nor between before and after the demotion, but before and after May 7.

His fastball now is not his best pitch, but his worst. Several observers have claimed to see improved movement on his fastball: I haven't seen it myself, and I can't find evidence for it in the Pitchfx data. If there is late movement on the fastball, it doesn't seem to bother the batters enough to make them miss, or to reduce his HR rate. When you look at the Pitchfx records of his last six starts, nearly every one of the hits has come off his fastball (one exception: Thome's first-pitch HR off a curve -- Thome appears to have been waiting on a breaking pitch). His problems controlling the fastball are obvious, especially when walking the Orioles' #9 hitter Castro on four straight fastballs. This is a persistent pattern during his post-callup starts -- the hitters lay off the breaking pitches, and hammer the fastball. Clearly they are able to identify the curve, but it's not because the curve is looping more than in 2007 -- just think of the called strike three to end the no-hitter: that was practically an Eephus pitch. That elegant curve is gone, and that's a tragedy. For that, I agree that the coaches tinkering with his mechanics are at least partly to blame.

Buchholz has not lost control of the changeup -- it's the one pitch he has been consistently able to throw for strikes. Buchholz's changeup has always had counter-intuitive movement for a changeup -- plenty of dive, but very little fade -- and that has been consistent through this year and last. Furthermore, if it's a sitting duck, it's one that hitters almost always miss: he has given up very few hits on the changeup in the last six starts. Check out Jnai's blog post for a demonstration of its effectiveness against the White Sox. Then check the pitchfx logs for these starts: 8/4 vs. KC -- zero hits, 5 swinging strikes on 11 changeups; 7/29 vs. LA -- 1 hit (out of 20 changeups), vs 4 on the fastball and 2 on the curve; 7/23 vs. Seattle -- 0 hits on 19 changeups... I could go on, but I think the point is clear: if batters can't hit it, and he can throw it for a strike when he wants to, then Buchholz's changeup is not a problem. In fact, it's the only part of his arsenal that is not a problem. The main problem with the changeup is that his catchers do not call for it enough.

The loss of focus and confidence once men get on base seems to be his main problem, and that feeds into inconsistency in his mechanics. The raw stuff is still there, but right now he looks mentally shattered. A few weeks in the minor leagues are about all the team can offer him at this time.

[E5 Yaz]

With off days today and Monday, Francona has the option of starting Paul Byrd in Buchholz’ spot Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, activating Tim Wakefield [stats]off the disabled list or summoning David Pauley or Michael Bowden from the PawSox.

“I haven’t done near good enough, so I knew the decision was coming and had to be made soon,” said Buchholz, who was sent to Portland to renew work with Sea Dogs pitching coach Mike Cather. “They’ve given me ample opportunity to help this team and help myself out up here, and it just hasn’t worked out.”

How awful has Buchholz been? The numbers are staggering. He fell to 0-7 with a 9.22 ERA in his last nine starts, which is the Sox’ longest losing skid since Frank Castillo went 0-8 in 10 starts in 2002. Buchholz’ slide has been far worse, however, because he has been provided leads in the first three innings in six of the nine starts and squandered each one.

“People have tough games; I’ve had a tough year, so it’s hard to swallow right now,” he said.

http://www.bostonher...l...&position=0

You have to wonder whetherthey will try to move him in the off-season to a team that thinks it could "fix" what's wrong with him, or whether they give it one more shot.

[TheoShmeo]

You have to wonder whetherthey will try to move him in the off-season to a team that thinks it could "fix" what's wrong with him, or whether they give it one more shot.

Despite what happened this season, Buchholz has too much promise, and the Sox have invested too much in him, for them to give up now. Look at how long they hung with Craig Hansen before dumping him. Buck's potential, coupled with the sad reality that his trade value is impossibly low, tells me that they'll keep trying with him, as well they should.

That they gave Buchholz as many chances in the midst of a pennant/WC race as they did suggests that they have tried and failed to make another waiver trade for a starting pitcher, have little confidence in what Pauley, Zink or Hansack could give them and think that Michael Bowden isn't ready yet to start at the big league level. There's almost no other explanation for starting Buchholz as nothing he's done since his recall could have given them any level of confidence that things would suddenly click in for him. I don't know what the explanation is; I just know that I expected him to be ineffective last night and that no one could have been surprised when he was.

The decision to stick with Buchholz as long as they did reminds me of their continued use of Eric Gagne last year in the face of the obvious conclusion that he sucked and would continue to suck. I would have much preferred to see the Sox use Hansack or Bowden last night since either of them might have done well. I haven't checked to see when those two last pitched, and I'm assuming that the Sox could have managed their prior use in a way to make starting one of them last night possible. And maybe there was a better answer on the minor league level. I just know that the answer wasn't Buchholz and I think the Sox should have known that, too.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 21 August 2008 - 05:24 AM.

[LondonSox]

I'm pretty staggered by the thought of trading him, and that people think he has low value.

You're crazy.

Yes he's been disappointing this season, but he's a Rookie and you need only look at our biggest rivals to see similar disappointing Rookie performances. You only need to look at our own Lester to see how Rookies can take time to adjust. Let's remember that Lester was far worse than his numbers when he first came up, and only got away with it by getting out of jams on almost an inning by inning basis.

You don't give up on Buchholz talent, this is a kid who was close to the best prospect in baseball, he's been up and down and struggled and lost confidence and changed arm slot etc etc etc. He's not had some huge injury. He's not lost his stuff enitrely (though somewhat). What he needs to do is get his stuff back together in the minors and then come up when he's ready and confident and be given a decent run as the 5th starter.

I'm so bored of the give up on him talk of some of these boards. The same people wanted to give up on Pedroia in his first month. Or trade lester as he'd never get through more than 5 innings a game and walked too many to be a good starter.

Sometimes you have to have a little faith when expert talent eveluators from numerous different places (internal, BA, BP, other teams) who all think this kid is the real deal, and not based on the flakey pitchability etc type skills. You don't give up on a potential number one because he has a crappy first year, especially one who has shown the stuff to be dominant IN THE MAJORS.

[TheoShmeo]

I'm pretty staggered by the thought of trading him, and that people think he has low value.

I wholeheartedly agree that the Sox should not trade a talent like Buchholz, but it's hard to argue that Buchholz's trade value, especially relative to his potential, isn't extremely low right now.

Any team in discussions with the Sox would be heavily influenced by his performance this season and, even if they viewed 2008 as an abberation, would opportunistically emphasize his recent record. The point is that even if the Sox were inclined to move Buchholz, trading any young player after a year like this one is bound to bring back insufficient value.

(Perhaps we're not really arguing and you weren't referring to trade value.)

[smastroyin]

I wholeheartedly agree that the Sox should not trade a talent like Buchholz, but it's hard to argue that Buchholz's trade value, especially relative to his potential, isn't extremely low right now.

This is crazy. His trade value might be low compared to this time last year but teams out there know about young pitchers and their inconsistencies. Do you think Phil Hughes has low trade value as well?

At some point if you want to get the $100 development machine chugging you have to have the stomach to deal with the way young player fluctuate. Clay has been a problem this year but I don't think anyone in the FO expected him to merely extrapolate what he did last year into a full season. And really this team would be in great shape even with his struggles if they just weren't so damn poor at translating components in runs and translating run differentials into wins.

I guess the point there is I don't see them simply giving up on him after this season. Too many young pitchers have seasons like this to say it is something specific in regards to Clay that is unrecoverable.

[Kremlin Watcher]

Anyone interested in Buchholz would bid low and point to his '08 performance as justification - that's the way bargaining works. The FO would only do the trade if they were convinced that his value was in fact that low because he had regressed permanently and his potential was gone. Which begs the question of why anyone would want him. I don't think there's a trade here because it seems unlikely that the Sox have given up on him (or will anytime soon). There's too much potential here compared with too little major-league pitching talent out there.

[JimMonaghan]

I think at least part of what we're seeing with Buchholz (and others like MDC, Hansen, etc) is that it's ridiculously hard to learn how to pitch at the Major League level.

[TheoShmeo]

This is crazy. His trade value might be low compared to this time last year but teams out there know about young pitchers and their inconsistencies. Do you think Phil Hughes has low trade value as well?

Trading a pitcher with the upside that Buchholz appears to have after a season like he's just had would be, in your words, crazy.

And yes, I think that trading Phil Hughes after a season in which he was largely ineffective and suffered some injuries would be foolish in that his trade value is also low now. Of course, I mean his trade value is low relative to what it once was and what it can be expected (or hoped) to be in the future. But, consistent with what KW wrote, any team trading for Buchholz or Hughes would appropriately try to take advantage of the most recent results and low ball the Sox or Yankees, making now a very bad time to deal either player.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 21 August 2008 - 07:19 AM.

[TomRicardo]

Two things I noticed last night:

1. Buchholz feel apart right after that weak grounder he failed to field. His pitches looked terrible after that. Before that he did not look too bad. I think a lot of hi problem is mental. Especially since he destyroyed AAA before coming and pitching terrible.

2. Didn't play Varitek. Maybe seeing if his pitch calling was part of the problem? Though it is more likely he hasn't had a day off in six days.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I guess the ultimate irony is that Buchholz was almost unanimously considered untouchable, even in a Santana trade, while Lester was expendable. Funny how different these things can look after a few months (and could look again after a few more months) but the failures of Buchholz are a sobering reminder that even the most shiny prospects can struggle and expecting too much too soon can be a recipe for disaster. Ultimately, I think you learn a lot about players by seeing how they respond to failure, and Clay will surely get one more chance, but probably not until next year. What he does with that opportunity could very well decide his career.

Seeing that he threw his fastball for a strike 53% of the time last night, well that seems really low. Does anyone have that number for his season, and how it compares to other pitchers and the league average? I have a hard time envisioning how a starting pitcher can be successful throwing his fastball for a strike so infrequently, but don't have the data to back that up.

[smastroyin]

1. Buchholz feel apart right after that weak grounder he failed to field. His pitches looked terrible after that. Before that he did not look too bad. I think a lot of hi problem is mental. Especially since he destyroyed AAA before coming and pitching terrible.

I was going to comment on this play and how luck and skill can dovetail at times and both be valid reasons and/or explanations. Buchholz did everything right with Payton, and got a weak ground ball hit with very little contact between bat and ball. With a little less bad luck (or good if you are Jay Payton) it would have been out #3. It was basically perfectly placed. But, you could almost see the panic of Buchholz as he went after it "oh not again with this crap!" and he made a frenzied attempt to field the ball even though if he had fielded it cleanly I think there was more chance of an errant throw than actually getting Payton out. Then he couldn't throw a strike to Juan freaking Castro, and then he goes with the first pitch "get me over" to Roberts. Just awful, and it continued to go downhill.

Obviously bad luck happens to all pitchers and he needs to get over it, but it did leave me wondering what would have happened if Payton's nubber had gone right toward the mound.

[irinmike]

Its always so easy for fans and people on the outside watching games to characterize failure like Buchholz has experienced this season, to something like a changed arm slot or mechanical tinkering of his pitching motion. However what any baseball fan can see is that Buchholz has no idea where his pitches are going at times. With this lack of control, sometimes a pitch looks great and at other times it looks so very hittable. Now is the lack of control due to hs mechanics, I am sure it is to some degree. But his current state of mind, while on the mound, in pressure situations, is also a huge factor no doubt.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It seems to me that Buchholz' days as being labeled a top prospect are over for good. He might still be considered some sort of prospect, but likely a 4th starter at best or something like that. There's no overstating how bad his season has been; he's had one of the very worst pitching seasons I have ever seen, bar none. His confidence has been completely shattered; his meltdown in the 3rd inning last night was brutally painful to watch. His repeated throws over to first when the runner was taking no lead whatsoever were the clearest indication yet that he had no desire to throw the ball to the plate. He was missing the strike zone by a foot most of the time.

His regression this season has been catastrophic. This isn't a simple fluctuation in performance, where a young pitcher might drive you crazy with his inconsistency with good starts following poor ones. This has been a full-fledged disaster, consistently getting hammered in every single start, and it's likely to set back his development a couple of years. It's very possible we won't see him back in the big leagues until 2010, if at all. And his next chance may well have to be pitching in middle relief with another team.

People keep talking about Buchholz' "talents," but I don't see it that way. He has skills, but no talent on display so far. "Talent" to me is using your abilities to get guys out no matter what. Tim Wakefield has talent even though he throws 60. Paul Byrd has talent because he can get guys out with his mediocre stuff. But a guy like Matt Anderson had the skill to throw 104 MPH, but no ability to translate that skill into major league success. Buchholz is similar: despite some talk about his "talents," he has no command of any of his pitches, he has no idea what the hell he's doing on the mound, he's a mechanical mess, and he does not appear to have the mental focus to pitch out of the stretch. The points above about his panic over a simply ground ball are extremely well-taken: this guy's mentally soft because his confidence is at a nadir.

If he wasn't a highly rated prospect coming into this season you'd look at this guy and might well decide he'd never make it in The Show. His skills have been utterly useless this season. He needs to tear everything down in the minors and start all over again.

This is not exactly a surprise, but pitching prospects are inherently unreliable. Sometimes they work out, like Lester has this season. But guys like Jimmy Gobble and Dustin Nippert and Kurt Ainsworth were once considered highly rated prospects in the minors and never worked out. There's no reason Buchholz won't wind up exactly like those guys, highly regarded young players who never did a damn thing in the majors. If he wants to avoid that fate he's got an immense amount of work to do with no guarantee that it will lead to results. We'll have to see if he's got the mental fortitude and the work ethic to make it back.

[JimD]

In all the talk here about Buchholz's confidence being ruined, there is a strong implication by some that the Sox coaching staff is largely to blame to shattering him. I still believe that too many people were blinded by his no-hitter and that the bulk of the problem is on Clay himself. He indeed has tremendous skills, but it was pretty clear a few weeks before the no-no that he was very much a work in progress. Big league hitters were going to adapt to him and he needed to be able to deal with that failure and in turn adapt to them. If this train wreck of a season is an indication of how he reacts to adversity, he is never going to make it in the Show.

[Razor Shines]

People keep talking about Buchholz' "talents," but I don't see it that way. He has skills, but no talent on display so far. "Talent" to me is using your abilities to get guys out no matter what. Tim Wakefield has talent even though he throws 60. Paul Byrd has talent because he can get guys out with his mediocre stuff. But a guy like Matt Anderson had the skill to throw 104 MPH, but no ability to translate that skill into major league success. Buchholz is similar: despite some talk about his "talents," he has no command of any of his pitches, he has no idea what the hell he's doing on the mound, he's a mechanical mess, and he does not appear to have the mental focus to pitch out of the stretch.

The difference between a guy like Buchholz and a guy like Anderson is the former has been an elite pitcher at just about every level before reaching the major leagues, and has shown the ability to command his stuff at other levels. Matt Anderson's career minor league ERA was close to 5.00 and his walk rate in the minors was as bad as it was in the majors. Buchholz, on the other hand, has seen his walk and HR rates this year almost double what they were in his minor league career.

Granted, a pitcher will naturally give up more HRs and walks in the majors when facing tougher hitting, but to see his command completely fall apart in MLB, when he has basically mastered every level of the minors, isn't typical.

Edited by Razor Shines, 21 August 2008 - 08:20 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Granted, a pitcher will naturally give up more HRs and walks in the majors when facing tougher pitching, but to see his command completely fall apart in MLB, when he has basically mastered every level of the minors isn't typical.

Wouldn't that point to either the mechanical adjustements the team made being extremely detrimental to Buchholz, OR that Buchholz lacks the confidence/mental focus/work ethic to translate his minor league success into major league success? Pitching in the majors is extremely difficult work; we don't yet know if Buchholz is capable of it.

Didn't we hear something last year that Clay was "bored" in Pawtucket because he felt like he had nothing left to prove down there? I have to wonder if his unbroken run of success on his way up the organizational ladder followed by his impressive yet flukey in hindsight no-hitter led him to think he already had it made. We're about to find out if this guy has both the talent and the character to come back after failing so miserably this season.

[86spike]

It seems to me that Buchholz' days as being labeled a top prospect are over for good.

There were a ton of us here (myself included) who were ranting about how Jon Lester was nothing more than a 4th starter last winter during the Santana Dance. Obviously comparing the two players is something of an apples to oranges scenario, but you should probably come down off the ledge a bit.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There were a ton of us here (myself included) who were ranting about how Jon Lester was nothing more than a 4th starter last winter during the Santana Dance. Obviously comparing the two players is something of an apples to oranges scenario, but you should probably come down off the ledge a bit.

Jon Lester never had such a poor stretch as the one Buchholz has just had (0-7, 9.22 ERA) (Lester's worst stretch was the 7 starts leading up to his cancer diagnosis in 2006, where he went 2-2 with a 7.75 ERA, and obviously the circumstances in such a stretch were far different than Buchholz' now.)

Such a stretch of historically awful pitching is bound to take the luster off any prospect. I think it's more than fair to state that he cannot be considered a top prospect any more. Maybe he can still be considered a prospect of some sort, but much like Phil Hughes his struggles and severe setbacks have curtailed his promise by quite a bit.

[TomRicardo]

Wouldn't that point to either the mechanical adjustements the team made being extremely detrimental to Buchholz, OR that Buchholz lacks the confidence/mental focus/work ethic to translate his minor league success into major league success? Pitching in the majors is extremely difficult work; we don't yet know if Buchholz is capable of it.

Didn't we hear something last year that Clay was "bored" in Pawtucket because he felt like he had nothing left to prove down there? I have to wonder if his unbroken run of success on his way up the organizational ladder followed by his impressive yet flukey in hindsight no-hitter led him to think he already had it made. We're about to find out if this guy has both the talent and the character to come back after failing so miserably this season.

Well last time he was down he was almost untouchable. Thats why people shouting mechanics stump me. When the Red Sox made the incredibly short sided (and probably now division costing) move of moving Masterson to the pen for Buchholz to start it was made because Buchholz was untouchable in AAA. He had his swagger back. But as soon as the slightest thing went against him, we watched him fall to pieces. A Cora error here, a blown third strike call there, a goofy grounder. Next thing you know Buchholz can't locate his fastball and Varitek continues to call the fastball. It is spiraling vortex of terrible. One thing I liked that Cash did was after first blow up Cash called a curve which Buchholz snapped right into the zone. It settled him for a bit.

Right now, I don't think it is talent but mentality that is holding Buchholz back. He is far different than Lester who from minute one in the major leagues stepped up when the chips were down.

[Razor Shines]

Wouldn't that point to either the mechanical adjustements the team made being extremely detrimental to Buchholz, OR that Buchholz lacks the confidence/mental focus/work ethic to translate his minor league success into major league success? Pitching in the majors is extremely difficult work; we don't yet know if Buchholz is capable of it.

Didn't we hear something last year that Clay was "bored" in Pawtucket because he felt like he had nothing left to prove down there? I have to wonder if his unbroken run of success on his way up the organizational ladder followed by his impressive yet flukey in hindsight no-hitter led him to think he already had it made. We're about to find out if this guy has both the talent and the character to come back after failing so miserably this season.

This could be true, but the "good" news (using the term loosely) is that these types of things are fixable. It would be one thing if his command was iffy in the minors, then I'd agree with the assessment that he just might not have what it takes. But, his minor league track record combined with the fact that his stuff and some of his peripherals are still impressive leads me to think that he can be fixed.

It's an odd case. I don't think it's comparable to Hughes, because there you can point to an injury and see where he had lost some velocity. But, that just hasn't been the case with Clay. It's like he just forgot how to pitch.

[URI]

Wouldn't that point to either the mechanical adjustements the team made being extremely detrimental to Buchholz, OR that Buchholz lacks the confidence/mental focus/work ethic to translate his minor league success into major league success? Pitching in the majors is extremely difficult work; we don't yet know if Buchholz is capable of it.

Actually, we do know that Buchholz is capable of pitching in the majors. He was very effective last season, and he was effective in spurts this season. What we don't know is he can have a sustained level of success in the major leagues.

There is a difference between not being capable to pitch in the majors and being inconsistantly effective. A team like the Royals has the time to figure it out by keeping a guy like that in the starting rotation.

Due to the situation in Boston, they can't do things like put him in the pen to see if that might help him...to try and figure out if it is actually a mental issue with focus, or if he's just having one of those years that pops up every few years or so where no matter what happens, you get shit on (see: Halladay, Roy 2000). Sending him to the minors is the right call because it will help him mentally, mechanically (hopefully) and it mitigates risk to the big club.

Didn't we hear something last year that Clay was "bored" in Pawtucket because he felt like he had nothing left to prove down there? I have to wonder if his unbroken run of success on his way up the organizational ladder followed by his impressive yet flukey in hindsight no-hitter led him to think he already had it made. We're about to find out if this guy has both the talent and the character to come back after failing so miserably this season.

Look at his minor league numbers...wouldn't you be bored too? I assume he was getting pretty bored in the majors too, considering how much his ass was getting kicked in, and having to watch from the 3rd inning on is probably no fun.

What makes Buchholz so maddening this year is that he obviously has the talent to be a big league pitcher. He has some command/control issues (like 90% of all young pitchers)...but he seems to have an inability to stay out of his own way. The more baseball I watch, the more I'm convinced that this is what causes potential to be wasted the majority of time.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Jon Lester never had such a poor stretch as the one Buchholz has just had (0-7, 9.22 ERA) (Lester's worst stretch was the 7 starts leading up to his cancer diagnosis in 2006, where he went 2-2 with a 7.75 ERA, and obviously the circumstances in such a stretch were far different than Buchholz' now.)

Such a stretch of historically awful pitching is bound to take the luster off any prospect. I think it's more than fair to state that he cannot be considered a top prospect any more. Maybe he can still be considered a prospect of some sort, but much like Phil Hughes his struggles and severe setbacks have curtailed his promise by quite a bit.

In the time it took me to write a response to your first post today, most of what I wanted to say had been said. So I won't repeat any of it. But yes, I'd agree that some of the luster is certainly gone. But he's striking out 8.53 per 9, 16th best among pitchers with 70 innings or more. He clearly has the stuff to succeed. But his mechanics are an unmitigated disaster right now. The demotion to AA is the right move. It's a clear message that his 2008 is over and that he needs to do some serious work to get back up next year.

But he's far from done with the Red Sox and there is zero chance they don't intend to give him another shot next year at some point.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I think at least part of what we're seeing with Buchholz (and others like MDC, Hansen, etc) is that it's ridiculously hard to learn how to pitch at the Major League level.

Amen. And people need to remember that the change can be dramatic if and when you finally figure it out. Look at Mike Pelfrey. At the end of May, he was 2-6 with an ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.45. Mets fans were sick to death of the guy, this after two similar years of failed potential in 2006 and 2007. Since then, he's gone 10-2 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

Buchholz would hardly be the first hyped pitching prospect to fail in the big leagues, but its way too early to give up on him.

[Foulkey Reese]

Anybody remember this game?

It was a crushing loss, but I came away thrilled with how dominant Buchholz looked against a pretty good line up. His stuff was absolutely electric that night, as he was making the Rays look absolutely stupid. Needless to say things have gone downhill fast, but the talent is definitely there on some level.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Anybody remember this game?

It was a crushing loss, but I came away thrilled with how dominant Buchholz looked against a pretty good line up. His stuff was absolutely electric that night, as he was making the Rays look absolutely stupid. Needless to say things have gone downhill fast, but the talent is definitely there on some level.

I was there for that game and yes, his stuff was electric and he was hitting his spots nicely.

I'm glad they made this move and hope they do not bring him back up in September. I think his psyche has gotten damaged and he needs some down time from MLB. The other side of it is the Sox cannot afford a guaranteed loss right now which is what having him penciled in as the SP has been for the last 2 months unfortunately.

[OttoC]

Seeing that he threw his fastball for a strike 53% of the time last night, well that seems really low. Does anyone have that number for his season, and how it compares to other pitchers and the league average?

I don't have a breakdown by pitch type but here is some of the data I track for Red Sox games. Most of the column headers should be readily understandable but GmS is the numerical average of Game Score, Wtm and Ltm are team wins and losses, RpG is Red Sox runs per game in the pitcher's appearances. Starter and reliever data is kept separately, so toward the end, I've included season totals for pitchers who performed in both roles. The second table is for opposing pitchers (starter and reliever) in Red Sox games.

Table

[td=*] [/td][td=*]0.76 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Clay Buchholz [/td][td=*]6.75 [/td][td=*]16 [/td][td=*]76.0 [/td][td=*]357 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]1382 [/td][td=*]859 [/td][td=*]62.2% [/td][td=*]18.2 [/td][td=*]4.70 [/td][td=*]3.87 [/td][td=*]2.41 [/td][td=*]3 [/td][td=*]13 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]1.22 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Pitchers [/td][td=*]ERA [/td][td=*]GS [/td][td=*]IP [/td][td=*]BFP [/td][td=*]GmS [/td][td=*]Pitches [/td][td=*]Strikes [/td][td=*]Strike_pct [/td][td=*]Pitch/IP [/td][td=*]BFP/IP [/td][td=*]P/BFP [/td][td=*]K/BFP [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Starters [/td][td=*]3.99 [/td][td=*]127 [/td][td=*]768.7 [/td][td=*]3277 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]12396 [/td][td=*]7864 [/td][td=*]63.4% [/td][td=*]16.1 [/td][td=*]4.26 [/td][td=*]3.78 [/td][td=*]2.40 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Relievers [/td][td=*]3.93 [/td][td=*]359 [/td][td=*]360.0 [/td][td=*]1559 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]6116 [/td][td=*]3817 [/td][td=*]62.4% [/td][td=*]17.0 [/td][td=*]4.33 [/td][td=*]3.92 [/td][td=*]2.45 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Total [/td][td=*]3.97 [/td][td=*]486 [/td][td=*]1128.7 [/td][td=*]4836 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]18512 [/td][td=*]11681 [/td][td=*]63.1% [/td][td=*]16.4 [/td][td=*]4.28 [/td][td=*]3.83 [/td][td=*]2.42 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td]

Starters	ERA	GS	IP	BFP	GmS	Pitches	Strikes	Strike_pct	Pitch/IP	BFP/IP	P/BFP	K/BFP	Wtm	Ltm	RpG	H/IP	IP/G
Daisuke Matsuzaka	2.77	22	126.7	544	56.0	2198	1320	60.1%	17.4	4.29	4.04	2.43	18	4	5.41	0.77	5.76
Jon Lester	3.17	26	167.7	693	54.5	2602	1668	64.1%	15.5	4.13	3.75	2.41	18	8	5.58	0.97	6.45
Tim Wakefield	3.73	23	147.0	608	54.5	2277	1467	64.4%	15.5	4.14	3.75	2.41	11	12	5.00	0.81	6.39
Clay Buchholz	6.72	15	75.0	352	41.2	1361	847	62.2%	18.1	4.69	3.87	2.41	3	12	4.53	1.23	5.00
Josh Beckett	4.34	23	149.3	624	53.5	2324	1536	66.1%	15.6	4.18	3.72	2.46	12	11	5.22	1.02	6.49
Paul Byrd	4.91	1	7.3	31	42.0	96	68	70.8%	13.1	4.23	3.10	2.19	0	1	1.00	1.36	7.33
Charlie Zink	16.62	1	4.3	25	9.0	85	56	65.9%	19.6	5.77	3.40	2.24	1	0	19.00	2.54	4.33
Bartolo Colon	4.09	6	33.0	148	49.0	503	330	65.6%	15.2	4.48	3.40	2.23	4	2	4.67	1.12	5.50
Justin Masterson	3.67	9	54.0	230	54.3	861	516	59.9%	15.9	4.26	3.74	2.24	5	4	3.78	0.74	6.00
David Pauley	10.38	1	4.3	22	30.0	89	56	62.9%	20.5	5.08	4.05	2.55	1	0	7.00	1.62	4.33
Relievers	ERA	GS	IP	BFP	GmS	Pitches	Strikes	Strike_pct	Pitch/IP	BFP/IP	P/BFP	K/BFP	Wtm	Ltm		H/IP
David Aardsma	4.19	42	43.0	196		864	508	58.8%	20.1	4.56	4.41	2.59	13	29		0.88
Manny Delcarmen	4.44	56	52.7	227		954	598	62.7%	18.1	4.31	4.20	2.63	38	18		0.91
Javier Lopez	3.04	55	47.3	196		757	467	61.7%	16.0	4.14	3.86	2.38	24	31		0.95
Hideki Okajima	2.90	49	49.7	215		842	516	61.3%	17.0	4.33	3.92	2.40	30	19		0.91
Jonathan Papelbon	1.84	52	53.7	207		805	565	70.2%	15.0	3.86	3.89	2.73	46	6		0.73
Mike Timlin	5.30	38	37.3	171		614	398	64.8%	16.4	4.58	3.59	2.33	21	17		1.15
Chris Smith	2.16	5	8.3	31		110	65	59.1%	13.2	3.72	3.55	2.10	3	2		0.36
Justin Masterson	2.25	11	16.0	61		221	152	68.8%	13.8	3.81	3.62	2.49	5	6		0.81
Clay Buchholz	9.00	1	1.0	5		21	12	57.1%	21.0	5.00	4.20	2.40	0	1		1.00
Kyle Snyder	21.60	2	1.7	9		27	12	44.4%	16.2	5.40	3.00	1.33	1	1		1.20
Craig Hansen	5.58	32	30.7	146		564	329	58.3%	18.4	4.76	3.86	2.25	19	13		0.95
JulianTavarez	6.39	9	12.7	64		229	126	55.0%	18.1	5.05	3.58	1.97	3	6		1.42
Bryan Corey	10.50	7	6.0	31		108	69	63.9%	18.0	5.17	3.48	2.23	2	5		1.83
Justin Masterson	3.34	20	70.0	291		1082	668	61.7%	15.5	4.16	3.72	2.30	10	10

Table

[td=*]Opponents [/td][td=*]ERA [/td][td=*]GS [/td][td=*]IP [/td][td=*]BFP [/td][td=*]GmS [/td][td=*]Pitches [/td][td=*]Strikes [/td][td=*]Strike_pct [/td][td=*]Pitch/IP [/td][td=*]BFP/IP [/td][td=*]P/BFP [/td][td=*]K/BFP [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Starters[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]5.09[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]127[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]706.0[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]3140[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]45.98[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]12052[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]7435[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]61.69%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]17.07[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]4.45[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]3.84[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]2.37[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Relievers[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]4.56[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]367[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]414.7[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]1860[/color] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]7232[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]4421[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]61.13%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]17.44[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]4.49[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]3.89[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]2.38[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]Total[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]4.89[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]494[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]1120.7[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]5000[/color] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]19284[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]11856[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]61.48%[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]17.21[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]4.46[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]3.86[/color] [/td][td=*][color="#000000"]2.37[/color] [/td]

[smastroyin]

I don't really want to get into the guy's mental state but come on folks. Modern history is littered with very good pitchers who had some very large struggles at an early age.

Two first ballot HoF examples:

1987
1989 - "This guys sucks we are so lucky to get Mark Langston for him"

I'm not saying Buchholz is destined for that, but this is still the guy who had nearly the best peripherals the Eastern League has ever seen.

[Fratboy]

I don't really want to get into the guy's mental state but come on folks. Modern history is littered with very good pitchers who had some very large struggles at an early age.

I get the gist of what you're saying but they're not really that comparable.

Pitcher A was 21 years old at the time.

Pitcher B was 25 and through the injury nexus, lefthanded, and 6'10".

Edited by Fratboy, 21 August 2008 - 09:13 AM.

[TheShynessClinic]

Holy hyperbole Batman. Some people need to step off the ledge for a moment and reassess what's going on here.

It wasn't that long ago that people on this board were clamoring for Colon to replace Lester in the rotation, not Buchholz.

Yes. Buchholz has had a "historically" bad stretch. However, he had almost as "historically" as good minor league numbers. The kid just turned 24 years old. And has shown both amazing ability at the major league level (the no-hitter, the 8IP 3H 9K game against Tampa, even recently he pitched 6.1 against the Angels giving up only 5 ER, two of which scored after Buchholz had left the game), and has shown a completely ability to lose whatever talent and skill he had.

Is this season a disappointment? Yea, it probably is from a result standpoint. We won't be able to say for certain for at least another full season what this has done for his development, but all hope is not lost yet, contrary to some of the posts in this thread.

Edited by TheShynessClinic, 21 August 2008 - 09:21 AM.

[koufax32]

Jon Lester never had such a poor stretch as the one Buchholz has just had (0-7, 9.22 ERA) (Lester's worst stretch was the 7 starts leading up to his cancer diagnosis in 2006, where he went 2-2 with a 7.75 ERA, and obviously the circumstances in such a stretch were far different than Buchholz' now.)

Such a stretch of historically awful pitching is bound to take the luster off any prospect. I think it's more than fair to state that he cannot be considered a top prospect any more. Maybe he can still be considered a prospect of some sort, but much like Phil Hughes his struggles and severe setbacks have curtailed his promise by quite a bit.

It's not really all that uncommon for young pitchers to be awful one year and then good or stellar soon after. The FO of the Angels must be pretty happy they were patient with Ervin Santana. Nobody debated whether or not he had the tools to succeed. It just took hi awhile. To a lesser extent Cliff Lee demonstrates the same principle. Now just because A and B have turned things around to become great doesn't mean C will as well. I bring this up simply to say that to expect Clay, with his enormous talent, to turn it around within a couple of years is not some impossible pipe dream. It happens with more regularity than we might think.
On a related note this year is probably the first time in a while that Red Sox fans have been exposed to this many young players in the same year. We need to keep in mind that roller coaster rides are normal for these kids. It doesn't mean they're awful. It means they're young and inexperienced. Clay needed to go down a long time ago. While I do think it hurt his trade value I don't think there is any way he gets moved this offseason. the only way he would be traded is if a team valued him at winter '07-08 levels.

[draven085]

I get the gist of what you're saying but they're not really that comparable.

Pitcher A was 21 years old at the time.

Pitcher B was 25 and through the injury nexus, lefthanded, and 6'10".

I think the point he's making is very clear, actually. Lots of young pitchers, regardless of their age at the time, struggle in their first full time exposure to the big leagues. Because of this we should not write any of them off, including Buchholz. Look at this guy. He pretty much sucked as a 24 year-old and went on to have a pretty nice career.

What I don't understand is why no one is talking about the Sox strategy to have Clay throw what is clearly his third best pitch the majority of the time. Despite the fact that he projected well as a 'pitch backwards' kind of guy the Sox opted to have him focus on the fastball much more in '08 than in previous years and it completely backfired. I understand the thinking that improving the fastball could make him an even better pitcher but changing a relatively successful pitcher's gameplan is not a decision without risk.

[koufax32]

I think the point he's making is very clear, actually. Lots of young pitchers, regardless of their age at the time, struggle in their first full time exposure to the big leagues. Because of this we should not write any of them off, including Buchholz. Look at this guy. He pretty much sucked as a 24 year-old and went on to have a pretty nice career.

What I don't understand is why no one is talking about the Sox strategy to have Clay throw what is clearly his third best pitch the majority of the time. Despite the fact that he projected well as a 'pitch backwards' kind of guy the Sox opted to have him focus on the fastball much more in '08 than in previous years and it completely backfired. I understand the thinking that improving the fastball could make him an even better pitcher but changing a relatively successful pitcher's gameplan is not a decision without risk.

I don't think it's trying to make him a FB dominant guy like Beckett. I think it simply stems from the fact that in MLB a wild fastball is not a good pitch. In fact, statistically it's the worst pitch in the game. Knuckleballers aside, you simply cannot succeed in the majors if you can't reasonably control your FB no matter what "type" of pitcher you are.

[Bellhorn]

Again, I think it's helpful to break down Buchholz's results/performance into its component parts. He is essentially the opposite of Dice-K this season, as he does pretty well in the most stable categories - his BB rate is too high, of course, but the K, BB, and GB/FB figures combine to give him an xFIP of 4.30, which is perfectly acceptable. It's the more volatile elements (BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%) that have absolutely killed him so far this season.

Before anyone goes on the attack here, let me clarify that I am not asserting that Buchholz must necessarily been unlucky so far this season - that's an overstated conclusion that people often wish to draw from low correlation coefficients.* I have little doubt that his BABIP and HR/FB have resulted, at least in large part, from poor execution of his fastball, and that his low LOB% attests to difficulty pitching from the stretch and/or tendency to get flustered when the situation gets rough. What the low correlation coefficients do tell us is simply that numbers in these categories one season provide little evidence of what they are likely to be in subsequent seasons. A poor performance in these categories may well be due to a skill issue, but it is an issue that major league-caliber players, by and large, figure out how to correct with relative ease. Having shown the ability to strikeout major league hitters at an excellent rate, and to induce GB contact a healthy percentage of the time, I see little reason to doubt that Buchholz has the fundamental weapons for success that will enable him to overcome these current problems. Of course, it is a legitimate cause for concern that he has taken so long to improve these elements of his game, and we shouldn't give him credit for such improvements until he makes them. But I would be far more worried about his long-term prospects if his stuff had translated into a low major-league K rate.

* I realize that this may appear to contradict the thesis of my performance/results thread, but there I was advocating that only the most stable performance indicators be included by default into a general statistical definition of performance. I am perfectly willing to acknowledge that there are plenty of particular cases where higher-order results contain important information about a player's performance, and that this is probably one of them.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

It should not be too late to move Masterson back into the rotation. He has been pitching regularly, and it has not been too long since he started. People sit out four weeks with injury and return to the rotation, someone ought to be able to do the same thing from the bullpen I would think.

[TomRicardo]

It should not be too late to move Masterson back into the rotation. He has been pitching regularly, and it has not been too long since he started. People sit out four weeks with injury and return to the rotation, someone ought to be able to do the same thing from the bullpen I would think.

He is going to have to take at least two weeks to get stretched out, probably more like three weeks. Players injured more than two weeks always make a couple of rehab starts. Look what happened when Matsuzaka rushed his rehab. That takes us second week of September or so before we have Masterson start. What we add in value over two or three starts we lose in the time where he is missing from the pen. You are really talking about a difference of 1 or 2 IP and they bwill be higher leverage innings from the bullpen.

It is too late for Masterson. He should have never left the rotation.

Edited by TomRicardo, 21 August 2008 - 11:11 AM.

[TheShynessClinic]

He is going to have to take at least two weeks to get stretched out, probably more like three weeks. That takes us second week of September. What we add in value over two or three starts we lose in the time where he is missing from the pen. You are really talking about a difference of 1 or 2 IP and they bwill be higher leverage innings from the bullpen.

It is too late for Masterson. He should have never left the rotation.

He doesn't have to miss time from the pen to be stretched out, however. Look at what the Yankees did with Chamberlain.

Granted he's hurt now, so what do I know.

[NomarRS05]

It is too late for Masterson. He should have never left the rotation.

Are you kidding? It wasn't too long ago that everyone was just waiting for him to regress as a starting pitcher because he was getting lucky and that it wouldn't last. Judging by his lack of control and penchant for giving up untimely home runs during his last three starts, that was correct. Turns out he's also a key cog in that bullpen and one of about two or three arms that can be counted on right now. But no, the Red Sox should have known that Wakefield and Beckett would get hurt and that Buchholz would suck this badly.

I guess the Red Sox are never right. Good thing they don't listen to the fans.

[TomRicardo]

Are you kidding? It wasn't too long ago that everyone was just waiting for him to regress as a starting pitcher because he was getting lucky and that it wouldn't last. Judging by his lack of control and penchant for giving up untimely home runs during his last three starts, that was correct. Turns out he's also a key cog in that bullpen and one of about two or three arms that can be counted on right now. But no, the Red Sox should have known that Wakefield and Beckett would get hurt and that Buchholz would suck this badly.

I guess the Red Sox are never right. Good thing they don't listen to the fans.

Regressing to the mean is used far too much here. I think some people think Daisuke is going to give up about 100 ER the rest of the way because "HE IS GOING TO REGRESS TO THE MEAN". The fact is Masterson was getting through his outings. Masterson had a spot on this rotation even if Wakefield and Beckett had been healthy. We are looking to replace his replacement Buchholz. There was no need to crystal ball Beckett and Wakefield here because their injuries only matter to the discussion after we picked up Byrd who came because of the poor decision made moving Masterson out of the rotation for Buchholz.

At the time I thought Buchholz should have moved to the pen. That way when he started to self destruct as he has all season, you could pull him out without too much pain or damage done. Buchholz has major league stuff, and probably could have gained a lot from being in the bullpen. Also I think he could have put up similar numbers to Masterson.

Edited by TomRicardo, 21 August 2008 - 11:49 AM.

[Rough Carrigan]

I think the point he's making is very clear, actually. Lots of young pitchers, regardless of their age at the time, struggle in their first full time exposure to the big leagues. Because of this we should not write any of them off, including Buchholz. Look at this guy. He pretty much sucked as a 24 year-old and went on to have a pretty nice career.

What I don't understand is why no one is talking about the Sox strategy to have Clay throw what is clearly his third best pitch the majority of the time. Despite the fact that he projected well as a 'pitch backwards' kind of guy the Sox opted to have him focus on the fastball much more in '08 than in previous years and it completely backfired. I understand the thinking that improving the fastball could make him an even better pitcher but changing a relatively successful pitcher's gameplan is not a decision without risk.

I think they believed he had failed as a pitch backwards kind of guy before they sent him down the first time. There was a very telling quote from Farrell to the effect that they realized he had to go down and work on his fastball when even hitters who were vulnerable to fastballs were completely sitting on his changeup.