I cannot imagine Greece beating the USA in a fairly called game (granted, that is a lot to ask for in an Olympic tournament). Aside from Spanoulis, the PG, who is a very athletic and resourceful offensive player, I don't see anyone who is a threat to create his own shot against Team USA. On the offensive end, Greece has been sloppy with the ball and if the US plays assertive man-to-man, it's going to result in a lot of turnovers and transition hoops. Defensively, Greece has played a very passive zone, and if they do that against the US, Kobe and Redd are going to light them up.
Spain looks better, and I am worried about their guards beating our guards off the dribble and then either taking it for layups or creating open looks for their big men. Someone needs to keep a body on Rudy Fernandez all the time; he feeds off lazy defense, slipping into the lane without the ball and grabbing loose balls or getting open layups. When Rubio (the backup PG) is on the floor, I can see Coach K being forced to get Kidd out of the game, as this kid is just too fast for Kidd at this point in his career. That being said, Rubio is definitely prone to being passive with the dribble if he can't get past his man right away; if Paul is guarding him, we're going to frustrate him into making a lot of mistakes. Marc Gasol looks like the polar opposite of his brother; he has lousy hands and sloppy footwork but is a nice banger in this game, where the officials call nothing in the paint.
Should be a fun tournament, but I think Team USA would have to lay an egg to lose to Greece...and Spain would have to really shoot the ball well to beat them.
edit: Greece has switched to man defense in the third quarter and is now really getting lit up. They don't have the speed to keep Spain's guards out of the lane.
Edited by Captaincoop, 10 August 2008 - 02:32 AM.