1215 replies to this topic

[Harry Hooper]

Dale Arnold on WEEI cited Will Carroll as saying the Commissioner's Office has been asked to approve Manny+2 prospects+cash for Bay and Grabow.

EDIT: Now Dale says 3 prospects.

Edited by AlNipper49, 31 July 2008 - 04:48 PM.
title

[cheekydave]

WEEI?

http://www.rotoworld...s...B&hl=245453

Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus says the Red Sox, Pirates and Marlins have agreed to a three-team Manny Ramirez deal, pending Ramirez waiving his no-trade clause and league approval.
Jul. 30 - 9:52 pm et

Edited by cheekydave, 30 July 2008 - 08:58 PM.

[4-6-3]

Not sure if this one has been posted yet - apologies is so:

Will Carroll is saying the trade is with the Commissioner's office.

Will Carroll

EDIT: Everyone's on it.

Edited by 4-6-3, 30 July 2008 - 08:58 PM.

[Deathofthebambino]

Dale Arnold on EEI just said that Will Carroll is reporting that a three way trade involving the Sox, Pirates and Marlins is on the Commissioner's Desk, which is significant because the Commissioner has to sign off on any trade involving cash considerations that exceed one million dollars.

Edit: Not Joe and Jerry anymore

Edited by Deathofthebambino, 30 July 2008 - 08:59 PM.

[SoxScout]

We Have A Deal But …

by Will Carroll

The Commissioner’s Office has been informed of a deal involving the Pirates, Red Sox, and Marlins. The Commissioner has to sign off on any deal involving cash considerations of more than a million dollars and there was clearly going to be cash involved in any deal. There’s also some formality about Manny Ramirez waiving his 10-5 rights and no trade clause and I’ll admit not understanding the technicalities.

So here’s what Pee Wee Herman would call the “big but.” The teams, I am told, have not agreed on the specific prospects to be included in the deal. It’s expected that in addition to the principals, the Red Sox would get John Grabow and give up two prospects while the Marlins would get one prospect and give up two. There’s still a lot of haggling but my scribbling notes make it look like the structure of the deal is:

Marlins get Manny Ramirez, one prospect (BOS), and cash (likely Ramirez’s remaining salary)
Pirates get Jeremy Hermida and three prospects (two FLO, one BOS)
Red Sox get Jason Bay and John Grabow

There is still potential for this to fall apart over the prospects, though things appear closer now than ever before.

http://www.baseballp...filtered/?p=967

I am not happy if this is the deal. We are going to be in the same spot next year with a 30+ year old slugger looking for a monster contract. Give me Hermida.

Edited by SoxScout, 30 July 2008 - 09:08 PM.

[ngruz25]

FWIW, BP was the first to get word of the Nady/Marte deal.

[Foulkey Reese]

So it won't be approved until tomorrow morning correct?

[Bowlerman9]

Pirates give up Bay and Grabow and up with Hermida and three prospects? That seems like it could be a ton, depending who the prospects are. Better not be any studs on the Sox end.

[Punchado]

Assuming this happens, I hope it helps the Red Sox win the WS this year, but it still makes me very sad.

Manny was absolutely my favorite player on this team.

[koufax32]

"Three prospects" scares me unless Julio Lugo is considered a prospect.

Come on server. Hang in there...Someone get Corsi and damp cloth and water bottle!

[Clears Cleaver]

here are Grabow's stats

http://sports.espn.g...e?playerId=5864

seems like a marginal middle reliever. I am not digging this trade. Hermida excites me more than Bay

[Pumpsie]

Well, the devil's in the details. It all depends on who those two (or three) prospects are.

I guess since it's so close to the deadline, that the teams are making sure 1) Selig OKs the financial aspects of the deal and 2) Manny waives his 10/5 rights, before they settle on the prospects tomorrow. Everyone gets to "sleep on it" and come back tomorrow to see if they can reach an agreement.

EDIT: I really have no idea who the prospects are going to be from the Sox side but my gut says that Bard is one of them.

Edited by Pumpsie, 30 July 2008 - 09:07 PM.

[Harry Hooper]

So it won't be approved until tomorrow morning correct?

I doubt that will be an issue. The Commish doesn't like raw purchases of talent by large-budget clubs from small-budget clubs. In this case, the small-budget Marlins would be getting talent (potential Hall of Famer) with a subsidy in exchange for talent.

[Robinson Checo]

I hate to see Manny go, but it was time. As a fan of both the Red Sox and Pirates, this deal excites me.

[Pumpsie]

"Three prospects" scares me unless Julio Lugo is considered a prospect.

Well, it all depends. I'd rather give up one "A" prospect and two "B" ones than two "A" prospects.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I am not happy if this is the deal. We are going to be in the same spot next year with a 30+ year old slugger looking for a monster contract. Give me Hermida.

You forgot this part - Jason Bay had a 93 OPS+ last season.

[DJnVa]

I am not happy if this is the deal. We are going to be in the same spot next year with a 30+ year old slugger looking for a monster contract.

I can see that, but obviously the FO thinks Bay would be a much smaller headache to deal with when he's in the final year of his deal. They pushed back the need to find a new LF'er one year and get rid of what they think is obviously a huge distraction.

It'll suck to see Manny go though if it happens....and I'm sure by the weekend we'll see a highlight on ESPN of him and Hanley doing some stupid handshake thing after Manny hits a HR and Manny will be grinning from ear to ear.

[kartvelo]

Sounds like a poor return on the dollar no matter who the prospects are. I guess it's a buyer's market as far as Manny goes.

[ctsoxfan5]

You forgot this part - Jason Bay had a 93 OPS+ last season.

And in the other seasons of his career: 132, 150, 138 and 137 this season. What was the point of your post?

[DJnVa]

You forgot this part - Jason Bay had a 93 OPS+ last season.

You forgot this part - Jason Bay was injured last season.

[OCD SS]

here are Grabow's stats

http://sports.espn.g...e?playerId=5864

seems like a marginal middle reliever. I am not digging this trade. Hermida excites me more than Bay

I'd much rather have Hermida as well, and I'm guessing that the prospects coming from Florida are more interesting than Grabow.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Once you factor in defense, swapping Manny for Bay is a wash at worst for the rest of the season and quite possibly an improvement.

So basically we are eating about 7M and giving up two prospects in order to get Grabow and an extra season of Bay at a very affordable 7.5M price. As long as neither of the prospects are A listers, this deal seems to be as good as one might have imagined given the circumstances.

Let's just move the fuck on.

[ctsoxfan5]

I'd much rather have Hermida as well, and I'm guessing that the prospects coming from Florida are more interesting than Grabow.

People keep saying this, but why? Because he's younger? It seems like Hermida's best case is that he turns out to be as good as Bay. And that may be a few years away- the Sox are in a pennat race this year. Bay is better than Hermida today, and may be better than him for the next few years.

[FrenMoney]

Bay is a solid Right handed bat. (.290 AVg/.400 OBP)
Hermida still hasn't got his act together and would not do well in a pennant race.

Not sure Hermida has shown enough to be considered better tha Jason Bay.

[Harry Hooper]

Old Hickory's latest blog entry:

The Manny Ramirez trade conversations are expected to continue into Thursday, according to a source. Because it's a very complicated deal, involving a player who has the right to veto the trade and other parts, it is still unlikely to happen. But the negotiations will go on.

MLB Trade Deadline Blog

[OttoC]

Let me get this straight. The Red Sox are giving up the best player in this trade, a large ton of money, and two/three prospects and they are getting an outfielder in return who has only managed .250/.312/.450/.762 in 267 PAs in interleague play plus a pitcher who has a 9.00 ERA in 30 games of interleague play.

No thanks.

[knucklecup]

I am not happy if this is the deal. We are going to be in the same spot next year with a 30+ year old slugger looking for a monster contract. Give me Hermida.

Lets say that Ramirez and Bay are equal talents right now (which I disagree with).

Is John Grabow going to put this team over the top? The answer is no.

Obviously there is still time to make other improvements to the team, but this is just the wrong move given option "B" IMO.

I guess we'll wait and see at this point, but I'm pretty bummed right now.

[Jeff Van GULLY]

I'm calling BS on this by Carroll, he has gotten it wrong so often in the past regarding deals that I walked into this thread with some skepticism.

But then I read that the trade is on the Commissioners desk awaiting approval but that the teams haven't even settled on the actual prospects being involved. Not only is that unprecedented in MLB history but it also makes absolutely no sense. Perhaps Carroll got it wrong and it is on the Commish's desk awaiting approval and the players are agreed upon or perhaps Carroll is completely off target on where this is in the process.

On the deal as presented by Carroll:

Terrible, awful...

While the original deal was clearly just what the Sox were asking for instead of what they would get this is still bad. The Sox give up at least 1 prospect and lose out on Tucker et. al. from the Marlins to get Grabow? Go get Mahay if that's the case and keep our guys and perhaps get one of the Marlins youngsters.

[HomeBrew1901]

Let me get this straight. The Red Sox are giving up the best player in this trade, a large ton of money, and two/three prospects and they are getting an outfielder in return who has only managed .250/.312/.450/.762 in 267 PAs in interleague play plus a pitcher who has a 9.00 ERA in 30 games of interleague play.

No thanks.

Yeah, I don't get why the Sox would be this desperate to get rid of Manny. Manny and his salary for Bay makes sense, Manny his salary and prosepects (unless they are Single A prospects) boggles my mind.

I love the idea of bringing Bay in but not for the price Will Carroll is talking about.

[MikeGreenwell]

Geez, well if Will Carroll is saying it then it absolutely must be true. I can't believe WEEI has gotten so bad that its citing Carroll.

Is Selig also going to sign off on last winter's "done" Johan Santana deal at the same time?

So basically we are eating about 7M and giving up two prospects in order to get Grabow and an extra season of Bay at a very affordable 7.5M price.

Why does everyone keep forgetting about the two compensation picks the Sox will be giving up in next year's draft when doing these types of net summaries?

[yecul]

Theo is horrible at midseason trades. Especially when he decides it's time to put the pressure on. Boston loses this one. And I am not opposed to the idea of trading Manny at all. Everyone is available. But this one, as presented, is distasteful.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Why does everyone keep forgetting about the two compensation picks the Sox will be giving up in next year's draft when doing these types of net summaries?

Because they will get the same two picks for Bay a year later.

[satyadaimoku]

This is a trade in which we both lose prospects and get worse for this season. I'd rather stick it out with Manny, even if we would have to lose him in the offseason. For the amount of money we'd save by turning down Manny's option, we could find a better replacement for the middle of our order than Jason Bay or make significant upgrades elsewhere. This is a deal you only make if Manny were stuck in a long term contract or creating a huge clubhouse problem, and Manny isn't the former and I don't really think he's the latter either.

[GoWhalers]

Let me get this straight. The Red Sox are giving up the best player in this trade, a large ton of money, and two/three prospects and they are getting an outfielder in return who has only managed .250/.312/.450/.762 in 267 PAs in interleague play plus a pitcher who has a 9.00 ERA in 30 games of interleague play.

No thanks.

I think it's a little unfair to judge him over 267 PAs over 5 years. This is a small sample size under strange circumstances.

[satyadaimoku]

Why does everyone keep forgetting about the two compensation picks the Sox will be giving up in next year's draft when doing these types of net summaries?

Do you get compensation picks after you decline an option?

[Foulkey Reese]

Weird that nobody else has picked this up huh?

[SouthernBoSox]

Do you get compensation picks after you decline an option?

You can decline an option and then offer arbitration.

[FredCDobbs]

In Theo I trust, In Theo I trust......

[jdubbya]

Theo is horrible at midseason trades. Especially when he decides it's time to put the pressure on. Boston loses this one. And I am not opposed to the idea of trading Manny at all. Everyone is available. But this one, as presented, is distasteful.

I really don't think there were any options out there, this one had some legs and the team knew they couldn't have Manny Ramirez with the team on August 1st. I think a soon to be 30 year old slugger and a lefty reliever are a decent pull for the stretch run. Unless the prospects involved include Lester, I don't see a scenario where I don't approve of the trade.

[Harry Hooper]

Because they will get the same two picks for Bay a year later.

You don't know that. Bay misses half a season next year with injuries, and he might just accept arbitration.

[templeUsox]

There is literally no reason to be excited about Grabow other than he's an arm who hasn't blown a game for us this season...yet. He has a nice, shiny ERA this year but he also has the worst xFIP of his career (4.65). Shame on Theo if he is really costing us another player. I'm not excited about bringing an NL Central reliever into the middle of this pressure-cooker. I can't believe he's costing us a prospect.

[SoxScout]

Bay is better than Hermida today, and may be better than him for the next few years.

Bay is a free agent after next year, good luck getting him to sign "for a few years". He is probably goign to want 5/80 or so for his age 31-36 seasons. That sucks.

[Rudy Pemberton]

It's impossible to judge a trade without knowing the prospects, but I'm baffled as to why anyone would prefer Hermida over Bay. Bay has beeen a stud for his entire career, save for last year when he was injured. Hermida has potential, but he's constantly injured and has yet to put up the kind of numbers Bay has. Bay has a reasonable contract for next year as well. If the prospects are guys like Bard and Kalish, I'd be pretty happy with this deal. Bay is a very good and underrated player who has toiled in anonymity in Pittsburgh. There's no telling how he would handle a pennant race, but that's true of anyone who has been on crappy teams.

[MikeGreenwell]

Because they will get the same two picks for Bay a year later.

Only if they don't re-sign him. And even if that's the case, you can debate exactly how much more valuable they are, but two picks in next June's draft certainly have more value right now than two picks in June 2010.

[PedroSpecialK]

The conclusions being jumped to here are nothing short of hilarious. With no knowledge of the prospects, we don't know if it's Stolmy Pimentel or Mike Bowden. Wait this one out.

[Rough Carrigan]

Here's Baseball Prospectus's write up of Grabow in BP2008:

When he throws strikes and attacks the hitter, Grabow, can look as good as any left-handed reliever in the game. At other times, he fails to locate his pitches and begins to nibble. Grabow pitched last season with bone chips in his elbow, but was able to gut it out after spending most of April on the DL. He decided against having surgery over the winter so the condition of his elbow will bear watching in spring training.

Edited by Rough Carrigan, 30 July 2008 - 09:36 PM.