101 replies to this topic

[jkempa]

I'm going to set up a little Olympic medal pool. Anyone here who's interested in playing can do so. Here's how it works:

1) Medals are worth 3 points for gold, 2 points for silver, 1 point for bronze.
2) You pick a total of up to 10 nations.
3) One nation must be a superpower: USA, China or Russia. You can only select ONE superpower.
4) For the remaining 9 nations, you have a budget of 200,000,000 population. You can spend it on just Brazil and Burundi and be done, or you can pick up 9 small nations. You can pick one big one and six smaller ones. It's up to you. However you are allowed no more than 9 more countries in addition to your superpower.
5) If you want to spend your entire non-superpower population budget on a nation with a population of over 200 million, you can (i.e. you can blow your budget on India or Indonesia). This is probably not a good strategy, however.
6) For each nation you select with a population of under 20,000,000, you score double points for its medal tally (i.e. gold worth 6, silver 4 and bronze 2).
7) For each nation with a population of under 7,500,000, you score 4x points for its medal tally (i.e. gold worth 12, silver 8, bronze 4).
8) Most total points wins.
9) In case of a tie, the person with the most population budget left over wins.
10) The source for populations is the CIA World Factbook.
11) Send your entries to sosholympics@gmail.com by noon on Friday.
12) PM me if you have any questions.

Edit: Extended entry until noon Friday since there's no competition going on during the Opening Ceremonies.

Edited by jkempa, 06 August 2008 - 04:09 PM.

[Cuzittt]

Bumping this up... as the Olympics are in 4 days.

How many have entered jkempa? [I plan on entering tomorrow]

[bsj]

I plan to as well...I just havent gotten my head around the Olympics yet.

[bsj]

Hey, jkempa, can you confirm you got my entry ok?

[DJnVa]

I'm planning on doing this as well. Will probably sit down tonight and get an entry together.

[jkempa]

Not too much interest so far....I have received a grand total of two entries. Does anyone think this should be cross-posted to P&G for more interest?

I imagine some people are waiting until the end.

BSJ, I can confirm I've received yours.

[bsj]

Not too much interest so far....I have received a grand total of two entries. Does anyone think this should be cross-posted to P&G for more interest?

I imagine some people are waiting until the end.

BSJ, I can confirm I've received yours.

I would suggest crossposting it to P&G, but you should probably get a moderator's feedback on that...

Its a very cool concept, and looks like its going to be a lot of fun. That said, it requires some thought and a lot of interested people probably looked at it and were like, "I want to do that but need a half hour to do some research"....

[mascho]

Just sent in my entry. Hope the math is right....

[johnmd20]

I would suggest crossposting it to P&G, but you should probably get a moderator's feedback on that...

Its a very cool concept, and looks like its going to be a lot of fun. That said, it requires some thought and a lot of interested people probably looked at it and were like, "I want to do that but need a half hour to do some research"....

Yeah, I just sent an entry. I started working on it at 12:10 and it took 20 minutes. It requires a little more work than saying, I want Mickelson, Adam Scott, Rory Sabbitini, and Jeff Oglivy, but I think it is worth it.

There are a few decent strategies one can take when putting together their list.

[DJnVa]

I just sent mine in. Too bad Australia can't lose about 600,000 people to drop under that 20,000,000 level.

[bsj]

I just sent mine in. Too bad Australia can't lose about 600,000 people to drop under that 20,000,000 level.

Yeah...thats probably why the cutoff was where it was....i noticed that too.

[MarkInLondon]

I'm in!

What happens if one country invades another during the competition?

Or if a sportsman defects?

[URI]

I'm in!

What happens if one country invades another during the competition?

Or if a sportsman defects?

That;s why I wouldn't take Chinese Tapei

[Doug Beerabelli]

I'm in. Gooooooooo Maldives!

[jkempa]

I'm going to extend the deadline until noon on Friday. So far there are 11 SOSH entries. There's more interest in my office, but it's for money so I guess I understand why.

[grantb]

I'm in. This should be interesting. How are you tracking this? An excel file? On the wiki? I'd love to be able to keep tabs as most events aren't televised.

[jkempa]

I'm in. This should be interesting. How are you tracking this? An excel file? On the wiki? I'd love to be able to keep tabs as most events aren't televised.

I'm doing it on excel. If anyone has a suggestion about where I can upload the file, I would appreciate it.

[DJnVa]

Might want to try Google Docs. Not sure exactly how it works, but I think you can upload and others can access it.

[Sea Bass Neely]

Edit: Entry Sent.

Edited by Sea Bass Neely, 07 August 2008 - 10:44 PM.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Might want to try Google Docs. Not sure exactly how it works, but I think you can upload and others can access it.

Second the recommendation for Google Docs. You can invite anybody with a Google account to be able to view and/or edit the document and you can also post here the login info for the sosholympics@gmail.com account so that other people can see the document when they want.

I don't want to step on any toes, but my suggestion would be to use one part of the spreadsheet to track the medal totals of a list of countries and then you can easily program another part of the spreadsheet to calculate our points based on those medal totals. When people log on, if they want they could update the medal totals sort of like a Wiki.

[mascho]

Just got the google docs spreadsheet. Interesting to see the strategies employed. Lots of love for the Aussies.

[URI]

Is it too late for me to send an entry in? I have some free time and I want to make my picks

[jkempa]

I've just posted the picks via Google Docs (thanks for the suggestion). I've sent the invitation to each of you at the email addresses that you used to enter the pool.

There was one set of duplicate picks. Morgan's Magic Snowplow and BSJ, please send me your prediction for total USA gold medals to break a tie.

Many of the picks were similar, so it's going to come down to one or two countries that were picked different from the rest of the group. I've included the percentages that each country appeared on someone's list.

Some are zeroes, those are countries that were picked in my office pool but weren't picked on the SOSH pool.

If anyone has any questions, please let me know. Good luck!

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

MMS/BSJ for the win!

(We picked the same ten countries)

Nice work Jkempa, the spreadsheet looks great. Thanks for putting this together.

[bsj]

MMS/BSJ for the win!

(We picked the same ten countries)

Nice work Jkempa, the spreadsheet looks great. Thanks for putting this together.

Thats fucking bizarre. 200 something countries and we pick the same 10 lol...

I'll PM you my gold medal count shortly, Jkemp...

Edited by bsj, 08 August 2008 - 11:21 AM.

[jkempa]

Thats fucking bizarre. 200 something countries and we pick the same 10 lol...

I'll PM you my gold medal count shortly, Jkemp...

So to put it out in the open, MMS is 33 and BSJ is 36. At least you didn't pick 35 and 33 because no doubt the US would have ended up with 34. We're not playing Sina' style, (Price Is Right rules).

[URI]

Can I still enter?

[bsj]

So to put it out in the open, MMS is 33 and BSJ is 36. At least you didn't pick 35 and 33 because no doubt the US would have ended up with 34. We're not playing Sina' style, (Price Is Right rules).

Good. I hate Price is Right style...closest wins is the way it should be.

The fact that I am higher has NOTHING to do with it

[jkempa]

I'm in!

What happens if one country invades another during the competition?

Or if a sportsman defects?

I didn't think we would have to have a ruling on this, but it looks like Russia invaded Georgia (and I picked Georgia).

[jkempa]

So to put it out in the open, MMS is 33 and BSJ is 36. At least you didn't pick 35 and 33 because no doubt the US would have ended up with 34. We're not playing Sina' style, (Price Is Right rules).

Sure...please try to to get your entry in quickly though.

[URI]

I just sent one in

[DJnVa]

I can't grab the spreadsheet at work, but can anyone do a quick tally of what the totals from the 2004 Olympics would look like with our picks?

[Doug Beerabelli]

I clicked on the link you emailed me, but it won't let me access the document.

[Sea Bass Neely]

Didn't get the email, but sent an entry last night. Am I to assume I'm out?

[Razor Shines]

I sent one in, but it was a little late. No hard feelings if it can't be added.

[jkempa]

I just reposted the document for a couple of late entries. Sea Bass Neely, you are in. I messed up your email address the first time I sent it, you should have gotten the second one.

URI and Razor Shines are in...No further entries to be accepted.

Beerabelli, please try again. It seems like others are able to access it. Maybe there's a firewall issue or something? If it's a persistent problem, let me know and we'll figure something else out.

[URI]

I sent one in, but it was a little late. No hard feelings if it can't be added.

Jimmy, we're both in. And we both picked the country that is going to lead us to victory:

[URI]

Though your anti-American selection (along with johnMD and MarkinLondon, whose Britishness is no excuse to be anti-American) in the Super Power catagory is most distressing.

[Razor Shines]

I'm not sure even Latvia can save me this time.

I'm the only one with Russia. Are they really that bad? I figure they'd clean house in gymnastics and the maybe some of the "feats of strength".

[bsj]

I'm not sure even Latvia can save me this time.

I'm the only one with Russia. Are they really that bad? I figure they'd clean house in gymnastics and the maybe some of the "feats of strength".

Russia will be in the mix near or at the top...they would have gotten a few more votes had China not been the host country.

[URI]

I'm not sure even Latvia can save me this time.

I'm the only one with Russia. Are they really that bad? I figure they'd clean house in gymnastics and the maybe some of the "feats of strength".

Three things are working against them (unfortunately, one of these things affects our beloved Latvia)
1. China is the host country
2. USA is awesome! (fuck yeah)
3. They are pre-occupied invading other countries that they used to have control over. If they ever turn their "humanitarian tanks" towards the Baltics, we're in trouble.

[Razor Shines]

And I somehow forgot that Australia:swimming::Nigeria:E-mail fraud.

[URI]

At least Argentina is the odds on favorite to win the Men's Soccer Gold. So there's 3 points.

[MannysDestination]

Check out this really interesting study by an economist regarding expected medal count:

Back in early 2000, Daniel Johnson, a professor at Colorado College, found himself with extra funding leftover from a separate project and with the help of an undergrad decided to use the resources to see whether economic variables could predict the medal winnings of each country in the upcoming summer Olympics.

“We were shocked at how accurate our predictions were,” he said. His model used five basic pieces of data for each participating nation: GDP per capita, total population, political structure (democratic, authoritarian, military or communist), climate (the number of frost days) and home-nation bias. “It’s a pretty simple model,” Mr. Johnson said.

His results and subsequent predictions weren’t too well-publicized — it was, after all, an exploratory project. But once the Games concluded and countries’ medal count showed a 95-96% correlation to his predictions (“We were so accurate we thought we’d made a mistake,” he says), people started to pay attention. Calls poured in, including calls from two nations “who shall remain nameless” asking him for advice to gear up for the next Games.

“It would be harmful for me to offer advice,” the self-proclaimed un-athletic professor jokes. “I don’t know, get more income per capita?”

For each summer and winter Olympics since 2000, Mr. Johnson’s medal count predictions have been remarkably accurate. And now, ahead of the Aug. 8 start to this summer’s Olympics in Beijing, Mr. Johnson has released his latest estimates.

http://blogs.wsj.com...altimeeconomics

[atisha]

Well, the man might know his economics, but doesn't seem to know his sports.
No medals for Romania? Please. We'll take three in gymnastics alone.

[bsj]

I think he's giving China too much of a bump.....China may edge the US in golds, but it will be more like 40-36

[DJnVa]

And I somehow forgot that Australia:swimming::Nigeria:E-mail fraud.

Wow...for a mere 20.6 million you could have cleaned up. You're likely already out of it.

[MannysDestination]

I have done zero research into this guy's methodology, but he does have a 95% accuracy rate. I'd be curious to see how a medal-maximizing strategy using his numbers and the rules of this game would do. I didn't find the thread until this afternoon though.

[Razor Shines]

Wow...for a mere 20.6 million you could have cleaned up. You're likely already out of it.

My only hope is for Mother Russia to pull in a few more medals than expected.

Comrades, put down your guns and pick up your javelins!

[Doug Beerabelli]

Spreadsheet is working, thanks for re-sending the email.