5 replies to this topic

[Hairps]

THT's Sal Baxamusa recently made available a tool from which you can generate updated Marcel projections.

I decided to go through and crunch the Red Sox so that we have at least one projected statistical baseline from which we can begin to gauge second half player expectations.

What you're looking at below is:

- Season-To-Date
- Updated Second Half Marcel Projection
- Updated Marcel 2008 Season Projection

BATTERS:

Varitek: 

.218	.300	.354
.243	.333	.403
.230	.315	.377


Youkilis:

.314	.387	.552
.285	.378	.459
.301	.380	.512


Pedroia:

.314	.361	.458
.303	.363	.442
.310	.357	.451


Lowell: 

.297	.366	.507
.280	.342	.450
.289	.352	.480


SS

?????????


Manny:

.293	.389	.518
.285	.384	.514
.290	.387	.516

Drew:

.302	.417	.572
.275	.381	.472
.289	.398	.526

Papi:

.252	.357	.486
.289	.397	.564
.272	.378	.529

Ellsbury

.269	.343	.375
.285	.354	.415
.276	.345	.392

Edited by Hairps, 18 July 2008 - 09:33 AM.

[Hairps]

What you're looking at below is:

- Season-To-Date
- Updated Second Half Marcel Projection
- Updated Marcel 2008 Season Projection

STARTING PITCHERS:

Lester:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
3.38	125	122	 82	44	 1.33
3.96	87	  83	 62	33	 1.33
3.62	212	205	144	77	 1.33

Wakefield:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	 BB	WHIP
3.61  122.3	 97	 84	 47   1.18
4.68  85		81	 53	 31   1.32
4.05	207	178	137	78	1.23

Beckett:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
3.94	112	105	107	24	1.15
3.55	78	  73	 68	21	1.20
3.78	190	178	175	45	1.17

Matsuzaka:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
2.65	88.3	65  77	 57	 1.38
3.99	61	  56  55	 28	 1.37
3.20	150	121 132	 85	 1.38

Buchholz:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
5.71	47.3  54   49	  25	1.67
3.60	33	34	30	14	1.47
4.84	80	88	79	39	1.59

Edited by Hairps, 18 July 2008 - 09:05 AM.

[Hairps]

What you're looking at below is:

- Season-To-Date
- Updated Second Half Marcel Projection
- Updated Marcel 2008 Season Projection

RELIEF PITCHERS:

Papelbon:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
2.43	40.7	32	51	7	0.96
2.98	28	22	28	8	1.07
2.66	69	54	79	15	1.01

Delcarmen:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
4.53	39.7	36	39	15	1.29
3.64	28	26	23	10	1.32
4.17	67	62	62	25	1.30

Lopez:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
2.19	37	35	21	16	1.38
4.25	26	25	17	10	1.36
3.03	63	60	38	26	1.37

Okajima:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
2.82	38.3	38	37	16	1.41
3.81	27	26	23	10	1.35
3.23	65	64	60	26	1.39

Aardsma:

ERA	IP	HITS	K	BB	WHIP
2.77	39	28	41	25	1.36
3.92	27	25	24	12	1.38
3.24	66	53	65	37	1.37

[Clears Cleaver]

If these numbers are proven to be true, then it is paramount that the new SS be an upgrade over Lugo and for Papi to come back and be Papi. There is primarily regresssion or decline for everyone in the lineup. The pitching numbers look about what you'd expect, but again net out at a decline, I think

[SaveBooFerriss]

There is primarily regresssion or decline for everyone in the lineup.

??????? There is significant decline for three players, Drew, Youk, & Lowell. There is no statisitically significant decline for Pedroia or Manny. Tek and Ellsbury are predicted for slight improvement.

Ortiz is certainly a key though and is expected to improve.

SS is a big question mark.

[The Flying Dutchman]

If these numbers are proven to be true, then it is paramount that the new SS be an upgrade over Lugo and for Papi to come back and be Papi. There is primarily regresssion or decline for everyone in the lineup. The pitching numbers look about what you'd expect, but again net out at a decline, I think

While it looks like there is regression for a lot of guys, it still looks like a prety solid team. A lot hinges on Drew's performance going forward (they expect a big regression) and Varitek's, (for whom they predict a pretty substancial bounceback)

Buchholz and Beckett are expected to emerge, with Wake and Daisuke expected to fall some. Nothing new here, we just need our stars to pick it up, as some of the role players carried the team in the first half. I'm not alarmed.