17 replies to this topic

[behindthepen]

NOTE THE FUNKY GAME TIMES ...

at LAAoA

2008 TITLE DEFENSE
	BOSTON	57-40, 21-29 away	at	LA/ANAHEIM	57-38, 26-20 at home
Fri 10:05	Buchholz	2-4, 5.70 286/366/397 (108 ops+)	vs	RHP Lackey	6-2, 2.46 240/280/382 (78 ops+)	WRKO - NESN
Sat 3:55	Beckett	9-5, 3.94 245/288/399 (85 ops+)	vs	LHP Saunders	12-5, 3.07 235/259/392 (73 ops+)	WRKO - FOX
Sun 6:09	Wakefield	6-6, 3.60 217/301/362 (80 ops+)	vs	RHP Weaver	8-8, 4.03 254/308/391 (89 ops+)	WRKO - ESPN

stats

	Offense:										Pitching:
2008	RPG			OPS+	AVG	OBP	SLG	2B	HR		RAPG			ERA+	BB/G	K/G	HR	Bullpen ERA
BOS	5.10	4.42	away	112	.282	.356	.451	205	108		4.08	4.42	away	114	3.7	7.3	83	3.95
LAAoA	4.31	4.33	home	90	.257	.318	.388	145	83		4.08	4.52	home	107	2.9	6.5	88	4.07
AL	4.61				.264	.332	.411				4.61				3.3	6.5		3.86

The Angels have the best record in the AL, but their pythagorean record is 50-45 compared to the Sox at 58-39. Last year they outperformed by 4 games, but their offense was a lot better at 5.1 runs per game.

We finally run into a team that has a worse bullpen than us. K-Rod has been great, but Darren Oliver has the 2nd most IP in the pen (3.63 ERA) and Speier has not been good (5.26 era).

Offensively, here are the players with OBP over .340: Vlad 348, Figgins 380, Kendrick 340 ... and Kendrick and Figgins have both spent time on the DL this season. Napoli, who hit a bomb at Fenway earlier this season, just went on the DL.

edit: rather than start a new thread, just bumping this week-old one.

Edited by behindthepen, 28 July 2008 - 10:01 AM.

[maufman]

We finally run into a team that has a worse bullpen than us. K-Rod has been great, but Darren Oliver has the 2nd most IP in the pen (3.63 ERA) and Speier has not been good (5.26 era).

Even K-Rod has been more lucky than good (FIP=3.32, xFIP=4.06). His K/9 rate is way down (9.0, compared to 12+ in each of the past 4 seasons), and while K-Rod has never been a control pitcher, his BB/9 rate this season (5.7) is unacceptably high. In sum, there is every indication that all those high-leverage innings he pitched in his early 20s are starting to come back to haunt him. Whoever gives K-Rod a mega-contract this winter will regret it, big time.

[cwright]

Lackey's reportedly been struggling of late, and looking at his last two starts, I'd certainly agree with that assessment. Here are his last 5 outings (in reverse order):

7/10: 5.2 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (TEX)
7/5: 6 IP, 8 H, 6 R (5 ER), 1 BB, 7 K (TOR)
6/29: 8.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K (LAD)
6/23: 8 IP, 6 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 6 K (WAS)
6/17: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K (NYM)

Sox vs. Lackey:
Casey 0/1
Cora 5/15, 2 2B, 2 K
Crisp 4/22, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K (2 SB)
Drew 5/11, 2B, 3B, BB, 3 K
Lowell 3/12, 4 K
Lugo 4/18, 2B, 2 BB, 4 K (3 SB)
(Ortiz 10/26, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 6 K)
Pedroia 2/6, 2B
Ramirez 10/23, 3 2B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 4 K
Varitek 5/18, 3 2B, 3 BB, 8 K
Youkilis 3/10, 2 K
(link to stats)

BTW, what is with the 6 pm start time on Sunday?

[mabrowndog]

BTW, what is with the 6 pm start time on Sunday?

It's an ESPN game. It's starting early because the ESPY Awards are airing at 9 PM EDT.

If the game goes beyond three hours, and they switch it to either ESPN-U or ESPN Classic -- neither of which Comcast carries in my area -- I'll be royally pissed.

Edited by mabrowndog, 19 July 2008 - 09:58 AM.

[normstalls]

I watched the game with no volume so I am not sure if it was discussed...but was there any reason given as to why Casey didnt pinch hit for Lowrie? That appeared to be a brutal decision. No one was surprised when Shields made young Jed look foolish.

[cwright]

I watched the game with no volume so I am not sure if it was discussed...but was there any reason given as to why Casey didnt pinch hit for Lowrie? That appeared to be a brutal decision. No one was surprised when Shields made young Jed look foolish.

It was questioned by the (terrible) analysts as well, but they assumed Tito wanted to give Lowrie a chance to come through for him, since he might be relied upon heavily during the stretch run.

Obviously, he's not quite up to the challenge at this point.
(Then again, neither is anyone else on the team, it seems.)

[Rough Carrigan]

Last year Lowell bucked his career long trend of having crappy performance in July and August. He's not bucking it this year. Here's Lowell month by month ignoring his truncated April (AVG/OBP/SLG):

May .301/.341/.558
June .351/.425/.608
July .234/.309/.362

His bat seems a bit slow, not Varitek slow, but a bit slow lately, doesn't it?

[tims4wins]

Last year Lowell bucked his career long trend of having crappy performance in July and August. He's not bucking it this year. Here's Lowell month by month ignoring his truncated April (AVG/OBP/SLG):

May .301/.341/.558
June .351/.425/.608
July .234/.309/.362

His bat seems a bit slow, not Varitek slow, but a bit slow lately, doesn't it?

He did have a crappy performance last year, it just happened to come in June, when he hit .227/.271/.386. I remember advocating trading him at that time, as I thought that his June was a sign of a horrible second half to come. However, as you point out, he bounced back with a good July and even better August and finished the year with excellent stats. So I think we need to give him a bit more time before saying he's going to have a crappy summer. He's had 3 lousy games in a row (0 for 13, 0 BB)... before those 3 games, his July line was .282/.362/.436 for an OPS of 798. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but perfectly acceptable numbers.

Edited by tims4wins, 20 July 2008 - 09:46 AM.

[Manny's Hammies]

We're also only 14 games into July, even though the month is 2/3 over. Lowell looked to be heating up a bit before the break and was arguably one of the team's best hitters after about a six game slide that coincided with that terrible TB and NY road stretch for the whole team. Maybe you'll be proven right, but given the break and all, I just don't know how anyone can really judge his performance this month until it's over.

[SoxFanPJ]

Since his 1 IP on July 8th Minnesota, Papelbon has pitched twice. July 13th versus Baltimore 1 innings (22 pitches) and 1 inning in the ASG (11 pitches).

According to the Herald, Francona only was willing to push Papelbon to 4 outs max...

As for Papelbon, Francona hoped to use him for no more than four outs. Once the game was tied, because the game was on the road, Francona had to hold out his closer for a potential save situation if and when the Red Sox took the lead. (Had the game been played at Fenway Park [map], it would have been a different story.)

http://www.bostonher...l...&position=2

You have a bullpen that has not been reliable, a chance to avoid another sweep, a chance to pick up a game on the Rays, and a rested closer. Is Tito babying Papelbon or is he just being to rigid in following the manager rules of thumb?

[LateRally]

You have a bullpen that has not been reliable, a chance to avoid another sweep, a chance to pick up a game on the Rays, and a rested closer. Is Tito babying Papelbon or is he just being to rigid in following the manager rules of thumb?

This came up in the game thread as well. I'm all for stretching out Papelbon, although he has pitched more than an inning in 15% of appearances this year vs. 7% last year (30% in '06 when it was acknowledged he broke down toward the end of the season).

In any case I agree with the Herald article. The real issue with tonight is not Papelbon's usage but the lack of a reliable 8th inning guy. You're not going to bring in Papelbon to start the 8th (or at least Tito hasn't done it once in the last 2 years). The lead evaporated in the blink of an eye, and there's not a manager in the league who will bring in their closer in a tie game on the road with no outs in the 8th inning either. So you're stuck with having to close that gap with really no good choices available. A shitty situation to be sure.

And in evaluating who would be the lesser of multiple evils to be that bridge, take a look at Rough's post in the game thread. The problem is, Okajima has a similarly bad trend...

[behindthepen]

laaa

2008 TITLE DEFENSE
	Los Angeles-Anaheim	64-40, 33-19 away	at	BOSTON	61-45, 36-13 at home
Mon 7:05	RHP Weaver	8-8, 4.08 254/311/400		Matsuzaka	11-1, 2.63 202/324/305	WRKO - NESN/ESPN
Tue 7:05	RHP Lackey	8-2, 3.02 245/290/399		Buchholz	2-5, 5.81 296/371/433	WRKO - NESN
Wed 7:05	LHP Saunders	13-5, 3.10 238/291/377		Beckett	9-7, 3.83 252/293/400	WEEI - NESN
Thu	off day

stats

	Offense:										Pitching:
2008	RPG			OPS+	AVG	OBP	SLG	2B	HR		RAPG			ERA+	BB/G	K/G	HR	Bullpen ERA
LAAoA	4.49	4.40	away	93	.261	.322	.398	163	96		4.13	3.77	away	107	2.9	6.6	101	3.92
BOS	4.99	5.65	home	110	.280	.355	.443	216	115		4.09	3.80	home	115	3.6	7.2	90	3.93
AL	4.65				.265	.333	.413				4.65				3.4	6.5		3.86

ERA+ for LA's starters: Weaver 102 Lackey 138 Saunders 135.

Since we saw them last, they've gone 4-2 vs. CLE and @BAL.

LAAAA has more road wins than any other team in the AL, and actually has a better road win% than home. And that would be because their runs allowed per game on the road is better than anyone's runs allowed per game at home. Of course it's easy to point out that those road games include 6 at SEA, OAK and 3 at KC; but they also include road series at every single above average offensive team's home this year (except nyy, which right now is just barely above average in run scoring). In fact, they have a winning record vs. every single team on the road this season except LAD (edit oops:) and TBR.

Edited by behindthepen, 28 July 2008 - 11:40 AM.

[RingoOSU]

In fact, they have a winning record vs. every single team on the road this season except LAD.

You left out their 3 game sweep by Tampa at Tropicana.

[cwright]

Weaver left his last start (July 22) after 3 innings with back tightness, after allowing 3 hits and 2 ER during those three innings. His last start before that was on July 9 (6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER), so there aren't many recent numbers to look at.

Sox vs. Weaver:
Casey 1/7
Cash 1/2, K
Cora 1/3, K
Crisp 1/11, 2B, 3 K
Drew 4/9
Ellsbury 1/3, HR
Lowell 2/7, BB, K
(Lugo 6/10, 2B, HR, K)
Ortiz 6/13, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Pedroia 3/8, 2 2B, BB, 2 K
Ramirez 1/9, BB, 5 K
Varitek 1/8, 2B, K
Youkilis 5/15, 2 HR, BB, K

Daisuke has only faced one batter on the Angels' squad (Torii Hunter 0/4), which could bode well for him having a good start against them.
It'd be nice to get a 7-inning quality start from him. Given that the Angels are 28th of 30 teams in walks this year (ahead of only the Royals and Mariners), that seems like a possibility.

[behindthepen]

does anyone have a good explanation for why Lowell is hitting ahead of Drew? Is this just another slump-busting mechanism?
Drew has probably been our most consistent hitter, and he's good enough to be the #3 while Papi is out, but then he goes to 6th?

[ctsoxfan5]

does anyone have a good explanation for why Lowell is hitting ahead of Drew? Is this just another slump-busting mechanism?
Drew has probably been our most consistent hitter, and he's good enough to be the #3 while Papi is out, but then he goes to 6th?

Both Lowell and Drew are in pretty big slumps, so I'm not sure that it matters. Drew's last 26 games (119 PA): .211/.345/.453.

[behindthepen]

Both Lowell and Drew are in pretty big slumps, so I'm not sure that it matters. Drew's last 26 games (119 PA): .211/.345/.453.

For Drew that's a slump ... ONLY 345 OBP, and 10 XBH in July.
Lowell is 224/307/316 with 5 XBH in July.

My point is that overall, Drew is the superior hitter and I think it helps to keep the L/R/L/R thing going as much as possible.

[behindthepen]

Are the Sox in a slump, or they just on a run of ridiculously tough pitching?

ERA's of the starters we've seen since the ASG: LAAAA: 2.46, 3.07, 4.03 SEA: 4.83, 3.73, 2.95 ny: 2.52, 3.86, 4.02 LAAA 4.08, 3.02 and tonight .... 3.10. Further bad news ... on Friday it's Justin Duchscherer (2.37).


Saunders is good vs. RHB and great vs. LHB

08/Career
RHB 235/284/397 268/325/429
LHB 248/312/310 259/311/324

Saunders is also the poster child for the LA staff doing better on the road than at home ...
H 259/298/426 career 282/330/435
A 217/283/325 ...BABIP is 232, way below his career average, but he's been better away through his career, 245/311/372

In 2 starts at Fenway (4-24-08 and 8-19-07 ) he's 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA. In his 5 starts vs. BOS, the Angels have never lost.