56 replies to this topic

[Clears Cleaver]

I am asking those of you who use the pitch data to alleviate the fear I have that Manny can no longer hit a 92mph+ fastball. I noticed this about three weeks ago, that Manny never really squares up a good fastball, either fouling it back or swinging through it. Purely anecdotal, but I began tracking it unscientifically in my head and over the last three weeks, I have not seen him hit a good fastball hard, he popped one up and flew out once. Basically what I see happening is Manny fouls off fastballs and hits breaking pitches. In fact, he rarely swings and misses at offspeed stuff and almost never hits fastballs, probably the reverse of most major league hitters.

Does anyone have Manny's ABs broken down by pitch type and velocity and how he has fared versus various pitches this season?

I guess the second question is, if my eyes are right, what does that mean? Manny has always been known as a great breaking ball hitter. Is he slowing down? will he have to cheat a little more, open up a little quicker?

Thanks

[Jnai]

I am asking those of you who use the pitch data to alleviate the fear I have that Manny can no longer hit a 92mph+ fastball. I noticed this about three weeks ago, that Manny never really squares up a good fastball, either fouling it back or swinging through it. Purely anecdotal, but I began tracking it unscientifically in my head and over the last three weeks, I have not seen him hit a good fastball hard, he popped one up and flew out once. Basically what I see happening is Manny fouls off fastballs and hits breaking pitches. In fact, he rarely swings and misses at offspeed stuff and almost never hits fastballs, probably the reverse of most major league hitters.

Does anyone have Manny's ABs broken down by pitch type and velocity and how he has fared versus various pitches this season?

I guess the second question is, if my eyes are right, what does that mean? Manny has always been known as a great breaking ball hitter. Is he slowing down? will he have to cheat a little more, open up a little quicker?

Thanks

That's a lot of questions to ask in one post.

You can answer them most of them here, with Josh Kalk's PitchFX tool:

Edit: If you read my post later, you'll see that I suck and posted the 2007 version (which has limited data). Later post has 2008 stuff. Sorry.

http://baseball.born...e...=-100&l_b=0

These are fastballs > than 92mph:

Edited by Jnai, 26 June 2008 - 12:19 AM.

[redinchicago]

I thought his AB against Tony Pena Monday night was decent. He lined out on a supposed 92 mph fastball (it looked more like a cut fastball or something), though he did foul off some pitches that I thought he could handle. More specifically, they were located middle-in. I don't think it's anything to be concerned about.

[jodyreeddudley78]

So, if I am reading this correctly, we are talking about a line of 24 outs made on balls put in play, 9 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, and 0 HR. If you exclude swinging strikes, called strikes, and balls that would seem to indicate that Manny can't generate power on a fastball thrown over 92 MPH. Or, at least produce much more than singles. That would seem to indicate that he "fends off" fastballs, no?

[WayBackVazquez]

So, if I am reading this correctly, we are talking about a line of 24 outs made on balls put in play, 9 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, and 0 HR. If you exclude swinging strikes, called strikes, and balls that would seem to indicate that Manny can't generate power on a fastball thrown over 92 MPH. Or, at least produce much more than singles. That would seem to indicate that he "fends off" fastballs, no?

If I'm reading correctly, that site says Manny has only hit a total of 6 HR this year, so I ain't buyin it.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

So, if I am reading this correctly, we are talking about a line of 24 outs made on balls put in play, 9 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, and 0 HR. If you exclude swinging strikes, called strikes, and balls that would seem to indicate that Manny can't generate power on a fastball thrown over 92 MPH. Or, at least produce much more than singles. That would seem to indicate that he "fends off" fastballs, no?

Well, other than the fact that it's a 35 AB sample size, there's the issue that he's still hitting .314 off those fastballs . . . sure, his ISO is .086 in those ABs (which sucks), but we lack both comparison statistics or a reasonable sample size to give us certainty.

It's very likely that Manny's bat is slowing with age, but the current sample isn't at all conclusive enough to say he's punch-and-judy against a 92+ FB - and without walk data, we can't really be for sure, but it appears that Manny is still making enough contact that he would be moderately useful even at his current numbers.

[Jnai]

If I'm reading correctly, that site says Manny has only hit a total of 6 HR this year, so I ain't buyin it.

Gah.

My link was the 2007 link.

Here's the 2008 one:
http://baseball.born...o...=-100&l_b=0

Along with the 2008 Graph:


He's got:
40 In Play Outs,
14 Singles,
3 Doubles,
1 HR.




Sorry. Outdated link.

Edited by Jnai, 26 June 2008 - 12:10 AM.

[PedroSpecialK]

I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, though. Personally, I've noticed Manny consistently staying back on the hard stuff and lining it to the opposite field, usually for a single - it's on the hangers that he gets the homers. Jnai, is there any data for pitches slower than 80 MPH over the same time frame? I'd be interested to see the comparison.

EDIT:

Here's the graph for < 80 MPH. From my count there are 3 singles, 3 doubles, a triple and 2 HR for pitches < 80 MPH. Obviously, most hitters can pounce on hanging breaking balls, but it seems like Ramirez's power depends on it.



Edit 2:

10 of Ramirez's 15 homers this year have come on pitches less than 88 MPH, leading me to believe that even if he's slowing down in terms of bat speed, his production is not suffering because of it as he's on pace for his usual 30-35 HR.

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 26 June 2008 - 02:27 AM.

[LoweTek]

Funny, where several are seeing a "slowing" Ramirez, I am seeing a selective, situational, in short smart hitter. I see a hitter who first and foremost, swings only at strikes (note the predominance of green circles outside the zone), fouls off a lot of the tough pitches (presumably late count), does not try to do too much with plus fastballs and looks for and drives offspeed pitches. To be fair, presuming the graphs are accurate, I also see indicators of the inconsistency of the strike zone which itself is another factor impacting selectivity and likely accounts for many of the swinging strikes and BIP outs on outside the zone or marginally in zone pitches. I am not and never have a Ramirez apologist. But I wish most RS hitters could present us with a combination of pitch selection and offensive performance like this one.

[Joe Sixpack]

These graphs are interesting, but we can't really draw any definitive conclusions from them without having graphs from earlier years to compare. What percentage of Manny's home runs 3-4 years ago came from pitches >92mph?

[Monbo Jumbo]

Funny, where several are seeing a "slowing" Ramirez, I am seeing a selective, situational, in short smart hitter. I see a hitter who first and foremost, swings only at strikes (note the predominance of green circles outside the zone), fouls off a lot of the tough pitches (presumably late count), does not try to do too much with plus fastballs and looks for and drives offspeed pitches. To be fair, presuming the graphs are accurate, I also see indicators of the inconsistency of the strike zone which itself is another factor impacting selectivity and likely accounts for many of the swinging strikes and BIP outs on outside the zone or marginally in zone pitches. I am not and never have a Ramirez apologist. But I wish most RS hitters could present us with a combination of pitch selection and offensive performance like this one.

Agreed. More HRs on fastballs would likely come at a price of more Ks on off-speed stuff. Manny is a productive off-speed hitter because he's not sitting on fastballs. The charts could just as well be labeled, "Why Manny isn't Andruw Jones."

[OCD SS]

Funny, where several are seeing a "slowing" Ramirez, I am seeing a selective, situational, in short smart hitter. I see a hitter who first and foremost, swings only at strikes (note the predominance of green circles outside the zone)...

Except that Manny has always done this. The issue isn't whether or not his approach has changed, it's whether or not his skills have changed (deteriorated).

...fouls off a lot of the tough pitches (presumably late count)...

The graph does not support this; there is no indication of what count any given pitch was delivered in. But just looking at the part of the graph applicable to your point, not only are there quite a few foul balls in the middle/ upper part of the strike zone, there are quite a few strikes looking and swinging. I'll grant you the pitches on the edges, but the issue is what's happening in the heart of the strike zone.

...does not try to do too much with plus fastballs and looks for and drives offspeed pitches.

Which kind of answers the thread question pretty well as a "No." What's implied by the thread title is the decision on Manny's $20M option, and are the Sox looking at a declining hitter; I don't think there's any question that Manny used to be able to hit a plus fast ball. Saying that "he's not trying to do too much with it" is a nice way to make it sound like this is a conscious choice on Manny's part. Maybe it is, but if that's the case it's the result of a self-aware player recognizing that age has put a drag on his talent that he has to adjust to.

To be fair, presuming the graphs are accurate, I also see indicators of the inconsistency of the strike zone which itself is another factor impacting selectivity and likely accounts for many of the swinging strikes and BIP outs on outside the zone or marginally in zone pitches. I am not and never have a Ramirez apologist. But I wish most RS hitters could present us with a combination of pitch selection and offensive performance like this one.

Every batter has to deal with the same issues of umps and strike zones; the question can be summed up as does Manny's new approach/ talent level make a single season $20M investment a good idea? Manny will likely remain productive because of his intelligence as a hitter, but his decline from his elite talent level is becoming more obvious.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here's an article that says that Manny's HR% vs. fastballs is declining.

Don't know where they get their stats.

Ramirez home runs vs. pitch type

Table

	Home Runs		Well-Hit Average
Year	Fastball	Non-fastball	Fastball	Non-fastball
2006	65%	35%	0.394	0.253
2007	67%	33%	0.359	0.303
2008	44%	56%	0.321	0.362

[MentalDisabldLst]

Couldn't this just be a small sample size issue right now? One HR here or there would greatly skew these numbers, or even put them back on his career averages.

[The Flying Dutchman]

Couldn't this just be a small sample size issue right now? One HR here or there would greatly skew these numbers, or even put them back on his career averages.

And for what it's worth that graph is from May 31st.

[mr guido]

No offense, but this isn't really a situation where a scatter plot (like the above) tells a very meaningful story.

Here are some plots that show the % of fastballs at different speeds which are either swung & missed, fouled off, or put into play. Only fastballs which are swung at are counted. This is for 2008, and clearly it is a small sample.



Here is the same plot for all of MLB:



So it looks like Manny is indeed doing a bit less with the faster fastballs than one might expect. Of course this is just an analysis of 319 swings at fastballs, so don't go drawing any firm conclusions from the data alone.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

So it looks like Manny is indeed doing a bit less with the faster fastballs than one might expect. Of course this is just an analysis of 319 swings at fastballs, so don't go drawing any firm conclusions from the data alone.

I'm not so sure - without frequency for each it's hard to be sure, but the 'average' MLB player runs from 40% contact to 30% contact from 92-97 MPH at a fairly steady rate. Redistributing Manny's (likely few) 97 MPH hits into the 93-96 range on Manny's graph could well give it basically that same character (which doesn't seem ridiculous, since that's primarily luck-based and not something that would be consistent over the average and given the sample size problems), and indeed smoothing this graph seems like it fits the overall pattern.

It almost looks as if Manny has become about league-average at putting 92+ FBs into play, while fouling off more than the rest of the league - and it does appear that he hits <92 FBs at a much higher rate, too. Comparisons with other years would be very interesting - it's possible that most of Manny's separation from the common MLB hitter is much greater against "average" pitching and not as pronounced against high-end heat.

Great graphs, though - very interesting.

Edited by Alcohol&Overcalls, 26 June 2008 - 02:53 PM.

[TomRicardo]

Everything I have seen seems to point to the answer yes. Honestly though if Manny couldn't hit fastballs anymore there is absolutely no way he would be able to be hitting the way he is. Pitchers not named Clay Buchholz or Tim Wakefield rather throw their fastball. Manny is one of the best hitters in the league this year. If he only hits off speed stuff why not just be Josh Beckett circa 2006 when comes to the plate.

Seriously this thread is a lot of arm waving and posturing to a reactionary question.

[mr guido]

Everything I have seen seems to point to the answer yes. Honestly though if Manny couldn't hit fastballs anymore there is absolutely no way he would be able to be hitting the way he is. Pitchers not named Clay Buchholz or Tim Wakefield rather throw their fastball. Manny is one of the best hitters in the league this year. If he only hits off speed stuff why not just be Josh Beckett circa 2006 when comes to the plate.

Seriously this thread is a lot of arm waving and posturing to a reactionary question.

You & Reardon aren't contributing anything here. Manny had an OPS over .950 from 1995 to 2006, including over 1.000 every year but one from 99-06. Then in 2007 he had a .881 and this year he's at .895. Clearly something has changed, as his slugging is way down over his last 200+ games.

You also have no evidence whatsoever to back up that a hitter can't post a 900 OPS if they're having a harder time catching up to a 95+ fastball. Lance Berkman is leading the majors in OPS (with a 1.154) and none of his 21 home runs have come against pitches faster than 92.5. Milton Bradley and his 1.070 OPS haven't had any of his 15 HR on pitches faster than 92.3.

In fact since fewer than 8% of fastballs are 95 mph or faster (and just 4% of all pitches), it's perfectly reasonable to think Manny could post a 900 OPS even without being a dominant force against the high heat.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

You also have no evidence whatsoever to back up that a hitter can't post a 900 OPS if they're having a harder time catching up to a 95+ fastball. Lance Berkman is leading the majors in OPS (with a 1.154) and none of his 21 home runs have come against pitches faster than 92.5. Milton Bradley and his 1.070 OPS haven't had any of his 15 HR on pitches faster than 92.3.

OK - but if this is a "trend" (in that other good-to-great hitters aren't exactly shredding 95MPH heaters either), why are we using it to condemn Manny alone? Comparison is vital.

Besides that, Berkman's ISO on balls in play >93 looks like it's about .391 (just looking at Kalk's graph for this year for Berkman), which is nearly 5x Manny's in the same situations - obviously it's hard to make any conclusive statements because we can't include strikeouts, but that looks like a pretty big difference when "eyeballing" it, and might actually suggest that Berkman is getting around on those fastballs pretty well, or at least well enough to drive them for extra bases.

Edited by Alcohol&Overcalls, 27 June 2008 - 03:23 PM.

[mr guido]

OK - but if this is a "trend" (in that other good-to-great hitters aren't exactly shredding 95MPH heaters either), why are we using it to condemn Manny alone? Comparison is vital.

I'm not using it to condemn Manny, I'm using it to condemn the argument that Manny must be able to hit good fastballs because Manny is a top-30 hitter, and that no further inspection is necessary.

I think analyzing the performances of individual players vs 93.5+ fastballs is tricky due to the sample sizes -- Manny has seen 296 such pitches, while Berkman just 141, and clearly this will be against a different set of pitchers -- but it is a valid question to ask how Manny's age might be affecting him, and I don't see a whole lot of data suggesting that he is having success against pitchers bringing the heat. It's at least a valid discussion topic.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

I'm not using it to condemn Manny, I'm using it to condemn the argument that Manny must be able to hit good fastballs because Manny is a top-30 hitter, and that no further inspection is necessary.

I think analyzing the performances of individual players vs 93.5+ fastballs is tricky due to the sample sizes -- Manny has seen 296 such pitches, while Berkman just 141, and clearly this will be against a different set of pitchers -- but it is a valid question to ask how Manny's age might be affecting him, and I don't see a whole lot of data suggesting that he is having success against pitchers bringing the heat. It's at least a valid discussion topic.

Agreed on all points - truly, the sample-size problems seem insurmountable in this case. Additionally, we only have PitchFX data for the last 2-3 years, so a trend would be difficult to establish even comparing Manny to himself/his peak years.

It's hard to think that a 36 year old Manny isn't in decline, even if that still keeps him in the top 30 hitters.

[Jnai]

The current data is probably too slim to do it, but it would be nice to look at two questions after the season is over:

1) Performance in fastball counts vs. 2-strike counts.
2) Breakdown by location.

Based on other PitchFX analyses of hitting I've done, I'm sure those two things will covary, but it might be interesting to see if Manny's approach during certain counts is really driving his success at hitting these different types of pitches.

We might also be able to (right now) look at the proportion of fastballs that Manny is being thrown relative to other pitch types. Manny might get thrown a smaller amount of fastballs than other guys (because people are trying to paint corners with breaking pitches or get lucky with a call, are working him mostly offspeed, whatever), and so his approach might be to sit breaking ball first. So, again, his struggles with high mph fastballs might be due to what he's looking for rather than a good measure of his ability to hit the pitch.

Just some food for thought.

Also, it might be interesting to look at other measures (SLG, OBP, etc) on end-of-AB pitches rather than just success on balls put in play. Some of those foul balls might be occuring in 2-Strike counts, so he might be fighting off fastballs to set up a pitch he eventually hits.

Edited by Jnai, 27 June 2008 - 06:52 PM.

[Clears Cleaver]

Manny's HR today was on a 92mph fastball. But it was also the first hit (or ball in play even, I think) off a fastball 92mph or faster that he's had since we started this debate

[drtooth]

I will be interested to see how Ramirez fares now that interleague play is over and he will begin to see more pitching that he seen before. Interleague numbers---- 10 for 45, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB, 14 K's, 13 games.

June 1-12 -after #500 ( Ramirez may have been pressing before that HR)--- 14 for 36, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 6 BB, 5 K, 10 games

Edited by drtooth, 29 June 2008 - 08:16 PM.

[NomarRS05]

It was pretty alarming to watch Percival, who had nothing last night, blow a couple 93> MPH fastballs down the middle of the plate right by Manny. His leg may be bothering him, I don't know, but he's certainly not inspiring confidence of late.

[Harry Hooper]

The thorough Yankee scouts will let us know what they think about this hypothesis in the weekend series.

[Clears Cleaver]

It's pretty clear that the Rays scouts either read SoSH or are seeing the same thing we are. Manny is seeing almost all fastballs and the breaking pitches are nowhere near the plate. He simply cannot catch up to a 93mph+ fastball

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It's pretty clear that the Rays scouts either read SoSH or are seeing the same thing we are. Manny is seeing almost all fastballs and the breaking pitches are nowhere near the plate. He simply cannot catch up to a 93mph+ fastball

Agreed. They're pumping 95+ heaters in there high and Manny is flailing away at them to little effect.

The book is out on Manny. And he will be attacked with the hard stuff mercilessly.

[TomRicardo]

Agreed. They're pumping 95+ heaters in there high and Manny is flailing away at them to little effect.

The book is out on Manny. And he will be attacked with the hard stuff mercilessly.

Yes his four strikeouts tonight when he was at bat where alarming ... what? He didn't strike out four times? Well I mean the alarming thing is that everyone was hitting the ball but Manny ... what? Garza was blowing the ball by everyone? Well I mean he looked silly against Shields when everyone ... no?

Well I mean I am really worried about Manny this month ... wait he went .284/.394/.536? Christ I would hate to be one of your kids. Kid walks home with a C on a quiz and you are handing out the cyanide pills.

Edited by TomRicardo, 01 July 2008 - 11:20 PM.

[normstalls]

If you honestly think Manny can still hit 95 mph heat like he could just a few years ago you are fooling youself.
It is so apparent that good heat simply owns him right now.

He certainly does not look like the $20 million dollar man.

[TomRicardo]

If you honestly think Manny can still hit 95 mph heat like he could just a few years ago you are fooling youself.
It is so apparent that good heat simply owns him right now.

He certainly does not look like the $20 million dollar man.

Of course he isn't hitting as well as he did when he was in his prime. But if you didn't look at the numbers you would think Manny has been playing as poorly as Ellsbury or Varitek. Instead has has had a bad week after an incredible month. Manny is 12th best hitter in the league, is that worth 20 million? Maybe not, but you are going to have a hell of a time finding a better bat on the market for 20 million / 1yr during the off season.

.900 OPS bats are extremely hard to come by especially RHH. There has been only player in the AL that has had .900+ OPS in each of the last three seasons and he has the largest contract in baseball. Fact is Manny is still top 30 hitter in all of baseball. Half the teams in baseball don't have a hitter of Manny's quality even in his diminished state. Manny might not get 20 million a year but he will get more than 15 million a year for several years on the open market.

Edited by TomRicardo, 02 July 2008 - 12:51 AM.

[Obscure Name]

Of course he isn't hitting as well as he did when he was in his prime. But if you didn't look at the numbers you would think Manny has been playing as poorly as Ellsbury or Varitek. Instead has has had a bad week after an incredible month.

It was more like an incredible week in between two lousy months. .228/.328/.386 in May, .433/.514/.967 from June 1 through the 10th, .204/.328/.296 since.

[SoxFanPJ]

Of course he isn't hitting as well as he did when he was in his prime. But if you didn't look at the numbers you would think Manny has been playing as poorly as Ellsbury or Varitek. Instead has has had a bad week after an incredible month. Manny is 12th best hitter in the league, is that worth 20 million? Maybe not, but you are going to have a hell of a time finding a better bat on the market for 20 million / 1yr during the off season.

.900 OPS bats are extremely hard to come by especially RHH. There has been only player in the AL that has had .900+ OPS in each of the last three seasons and he has the largest contract in baseball. Fact is Manny is still top 30 hitter in all of baseball. Half the teams in baseball don't have a hitter of Manny's quality even in his diminished state. Manny might not get 20 million a year but he will get more than 15 million a year for several years on the open market.

.900 OPS hitters are hard to find, this is true, but Manny isn't valued just on his hitting close to .900 OPS, his defense or lack there of must also be factored into the equation.

Manny 2008: 283 .375 .509 .884
Manny 2007: .296 .388 .493 .881

776 ABs over this season and last is a fairly large sample size to argue that Manny has established a new baseline of production, this production if considered in context with his defensive deficiencies makes him less valuable IMHO then the defensive neutral or plus defenderwho has a high .800 or low .900 OPS. There are 46 MLB regulars hitting above .850 OPS and 75 hitting .800 or above. Whether Manny's option is picked up not only has to do with how the Sox value Manny's offense minus his defense, but also what the potential acquisition cost for free agents and/or trade targets to fill LF would be.

[yecul]

It was more like an incredible week in between two lousy months. .228/.328/.386 in May, .433/.514/.967 from June 1 through the 10th, .204/.328/.296 since.

But this one goes to eleven.

[geoduck no quahog]

One thing I've never understood about hitters: Everything I've read speaks to the minutia involved in a successful at bat, and how a really complicated sequence of events (including timing and coordination) have to consistently come together almost perfectly for a hitter to be like Manny.

Well, how many of us have gone through 6 months at the top of our game? I'm talking about colds, aches, minor injuries, fights with the wife, kids being sick, lack of adrenalin, etc.

Not having played the game, I can only envision a temporary physical (or mental) ailment throwing off the precise timing of a world-class, non-PED hitter. If, for example, a hitter has a cold and is on Sudafeds - couldn't that small change screw him up for a while?

What's my point - I'm wondering if some of these two-week slumps have more to do with temporary physical conditions (a wrist, a hamstring, a cold) than a "career" event, particularly in guys over 30.

[ctsoxfan5]

What's my point - I'm wondering if some of these two-week slumps have more to do with temporary physical conditions (a wrist, a hamstring, a cold) than a "career" event, particularly in guys over 30.

In general, I think you're right. We spend a lot of time dissecting small samples, when there may not be any larger cause and effect than a simple cold, etc. But with Manny, as SoxfanPJ pointed out a few posts above yours-- for the past two years, he's become more of a .380/.500/.880 guy. I don't know whether he can still hit a fastball, but on the larger topic of Manny in general, I think that's an important realization to make going forward (whether to pick up his option, re-sign him, etc.). If he's now a .380/500/.880 hitter and in his decline phase, is that worth picking up the $20 million option? I don't know.

[The Flying Dutchman]

Small sample size or not, thats a great observation by Clears..

Ever since you pointed it out I've been waiting to see Manny hit one on the screws, but he just keeps fouling them off.

Props

[Clears Cleaver]

Thanks. But I think I see something in Manny's swing. He now has a small hitch in hsi swing that seems to be casuing his right shoulder to dip and is causing a split second delay in getting his bat through the zone. It was clear to me tonight on his second AB and just now Remy said that pitchers are throwing Manny fastballs up and in, exactly what you would do to anyone who had this hitch.

Even though he ahs been awful lately and specifically since we started talking about this issue, I think the "hitch" is fixable. If anyone can put his swing from May up next to a swing from tonight, I would be interested to see if my theory is correct

[Steve Dillard]

Apart from where he is now (and I concur that this is concerning not just as a slump, but then again, I've worried about Manny since 2006, i.e. prematurely)

I think most would agree he's not a $20/mil guy anymore, but that leaves the question of alternatives. Do you invoke the option in the offseason, if this year is a .850-.900 OPS? And if this year is an .850/.900 OPS, does next year become .800? For $20 mil?

That really focuses on off season alternatives. If they decline Manny's option, they have $20 to spend. If they go completely drastic and let Tek walk, they save another $10 mil, and figuing a weak hitting catcher alternative like Barajas or the like would fetch $4 mil per, that effectively frees up $26 mil to replace Manny and Tek in 2009. (And net four picks for Manny and Tek) My bet is this is the route they take, and that they would be proactive with Manny. They've never quite been enamoured with him in the best of times, and now with sliding production and a return of some off field issues, they may make the leap to the next guy. They probably will be far more loyal to Tek, since they seem to value his catching more than his hitting. But does Tek take a pay cut from $10 down to $6 for a one or two year deal?

In replacing Manny, the first and most ready is the free agent market. The only big name that immediately came to mind was I know nothing about baseball. Even factoring in the teams that will have money and needs (Mets, Yankees, Baltimore were named, and presumably Atlanta), will he get $15 per for 6 years? It's probably overpaying where we're used to getting equal value, but as I started above, is overpaying I know nothing about baseball by $2-4 mil better than overpaying Manny by $6-10 mil? [My assumption is I know nothing about baseball to first, Youks to left].

Or do they empty the farm to get the "Beckett" of hitters (like they might have done with Cabrera this offseason). My bet is this is the route they take. Any names that people can think of with small market teams within the arb. range?

[jayhoz]

Thanks. But I think I see something in Manny's swing. He now has a small hitch in hsi swing that seems to be casuing his right shoulder to dip and is causing a split second delay in getting his bat through the zone. It was clear to me tonight on his second AB and just now Remy said that pitchers are throwing Manny fastballs up and in, exactly what you would do to anyone who had this hitch.

Even though he ahs been awful lately and specifically since we started talking about this issue, I think the "hitch" is fixable. If anyone can put his swing from May up next to a swing from tonight, I would be interested to see if my theory is correct

I've noticed the right shoulder drop over the last week. Remy has also commented on it (I believe 2 nights ago).

Barring injury a hitter doesn't just lose his bat speed over night. I've got to believe that this is a mechanical issue that can be worked out. With Ortiz out of the lineup and a series in the Bronx looming there isn't a lot of margin for error unfortunatly. Hopefully the All-Star break can be used to get things straight and not for visiting dead grandmothers.

[TomRicardo]

It looks more like a slump than a clear decline. Last night Manny absolutely turned on a Kazmir fastball and ripped it to third. If he couldn't keep up with fastballs there would be absolutely no way he could have done that. (And if Longoria who should win the gold glove couldn't field it cleanly there probably isn't a single person in MLB that could)

I mean he has declined from 1.000+ ops hitter to a .850 to .900 ops hitter but a .850 to .900 ops hitter still is worth 15 - 18 million a year in today's market. Add a little because it is only a one year contract and at 20 million it is a reasonable one.

Edited by TomRicardo, 03 July 2008 - 09:48 AM.

[CaptainLaddie]

Something that would never happen, but....

Would Tito ever consider hitting Manny 5th and Drew 4th when Ortiz gets back? That way Drew could stay in front of Manny (if you believe in protection).

[TomRicardo]

Something that would never happen, but....

Would Tito ever consider hitting Manny 5th and Drew 4th when Ortiz gets back? That way Drew could stay in front of Manny (if you believe in protection).

There is about zero chance that would happen. Not only that, you are just asking for a LOOGY in an inning that goes Ellsbury, Pedroia, Drew, Ortiz.

[CaptainLaddie]

Fair enough. Unless, of course, you hit Pedroia first, Youkilis second, then Ortiz/Drew/Ramirez, but that probably isn't happening either unless Ellsbury breaks his leg.

[OttoC]

I mean he has declined from 1.000+ ops hitter to a .850 to .900 ops hitter but a .850 to .900 ops hitter still is worth 15 - 18 million a year in today's market.

Isn't an .850 OPS hitter expected to flash a little more leather than a 1.000+ one?

[Todd Benzinger]

In today's Glob Notebook, Tito comments on Manny's troubles with the FB. I guess they've become so obvious that he might as well.

"For whatever reason now, the fastball is beating him a little bit," Francona said of Ramírez, batting .169 in his last 17 games (10 for 59), and homering once in his last 18 games. "When that happens, you start cheating a little bit. But I've seen this place get him healthy before, and I hope it happens again."

[Carlos Cowart]

The stadium gun had his HR at 96. Yesterday's RBI single to right - 96. He can still hit a fastball.

[Clears Cleaver]

yesterday's single was actually showed quicker hands. Tonight he cheated, looking for an inside fastball and opening up his front foot and hips. Still, it is good to see it is coming aorund

[CoRP]

In today's Glob Notebook, Tito comments on Manny's troubles with the FB. I guess they've become so obvious that he might as well.

"For whatever reason now, the fastball is beating him a little bit," Francona said of Ramírez, batting .169 in his last 17 games (10 for 59), and homering once in his last 18 games. "When that happens, you start cheating a little bit. But I've seen this place get him healthy before, and I hope it happens again."

Is it possible that Manny could have already figured out the problem in the last couple of days and Tito was blowing smoke here to encourage the Twinks pitchers to challenge him?