24 replies to this topic

[OttoC]

Chronology of Red Sox Single-season Stolen Base Record

Year	SB	Player
1901	33	Dowd, Tommy
1903	35	Dougherty, Patsy
1909	36	Lord, Harry
1910	40	Hooper, Harry
1912	52	Speaker, Tris
1973	54	Harper, Tommy

Jacoby Ellsbury currently is tied for 34th-place in Red Sox single-season stolen base totals but with 5 more he moves up to 15th-place and 9 more gets him into the top-10. (The alternation of colors is simply an attempt to separate ranks--data from Lahman database.)

Jacoby Ellsbury's Rank in Red Sox Single-season Stolen Base Totals

Rk	Year	SB	Player
1	1973	54	Harper, Tommy
2	1912	52	Speaker, Tris
3	1913	46	Speaker, Tris
4	1914	42	Speaker, Tris
4	1994	42	Nixon, Otis
6	1910	40	Hooper, Harry
6	1934	40	Werber, Billy
8	1911	38	Hooper, Harry
9	1909	36	Lord, Harry
10	1903	35	Dougherty, Patsy
10	1909	35	Speaker, Tris
10	1910	35	Speaker, Tris
13	1901	33	Dowd, Tommy
13	2007	33	Lugo, Julio
15	1908	31	McConnell, Amby
15	2002	31	Damon, Johnny
17	1928	30	Myer, Buddy
17	1978	30	Remy, Jerry
17	2003	30	Damon, Johnny
20	1901	29	Stahl, Chick
20	1912	29	Hooper, Harry
20	1914	29	Janvrin, Hal
20	1915	29	Speaker, Tris
20	1935	29	Werber, Billy
20	1998	29	Lewis, Darren
26	1913	28	Engle, Clyde
26	1974	28	Harper, Tommy
26	2007	28	Crisp, Coco
29	1909	27	Niles, Harry
29	1911	27	Gardner, Larry
29	1916	27	Hooper, Harry
29	1937	27	Chapman, Ben
29	1987	27	Burks, Ellis
34	1909	26	McConnell, Amby
34	1910	26	Wagner, Heinie
34	1913	26	Hooper, Harry
34	1968	26	Foy, Joe
34	2008	26	Ellsbury, Jacoby

[Kevin Youkulele]

That Ellsbury is only 2 SB from tying Coco's mark from all of last year is just ridiculous. There's fast, and then there's Jacoby.

[Andrew]

That Ellsbury is only 2 SB from tying Coco's mark from all of last year is just ridiculous. There's fast, and then there's Jacoby.

In fairness to Coco's speed, you do have to get on base before you can steal a bag.

[SoxScout]

FWIW, Jacoby is on pace for 79 swipes. Ha ha.

[burstnbloom]

In fairness to Coco's speed, you do have to get on base before you can steal a bag.

This is an important note because Jacoby and his 13% walk rate is the reason he is getting so many opportunities to swipe bags. It's unlikely he will continue to steal at a 95% rate of success but the fact that he is getting on base almost 40% of the time and has been relatively automatic when stealing makes him an incredibly rare weapon. We heard since the OSU days how exciting a player he is, but he is really showing far more promise than we could have hoped for in that regard so far.

[Forever Red 9]

He's also only 7 away from breaking into the top 50 career steal leaders for the Sox. For everything that Manny has done this year, we are watching something remarkable with Ellsbury. He is on pace for over 70 steals this year. Even if he only gets 56, which at this point seems very likely barring injury, he's going to be among the top 25 career steals leaders for the Red Sox. All in his rookie season. Harry Hoover and Tris Speaker beware, you'll have company at the top of the steals list before Ellsbury becomes eligible for free agency.

Edited by Forever Red 9, 01 June 2008 - 11:09 AM.

[Rasputin]

So here's my question. If Ellsbury could somehow face Tim Wakefield in a whole string of consecutive games, how many do you think it would take to get the single season record?

[Bowlerman9]

So here's my question. If Ellsbury could somehow face Tim Wakefield in a whole string of consecutive games, how many do you think it would take to get the single season record?

More than if he could face the Orioles every day. They dont seem to care about stolen bases.

[OttoC]

More than if he could face the Orioles every day. They dont seem to care about stolen bases.

It may be more that their fielders don't handle them properly. On two of Ellsbury's steals last night, the ball beat him to the bag but in one case the fielder was in front of the bag and had to reach back for the tag and in the other, the fielder didn't handle the throw.

[LoweTek]

More than if he could face the Orioles every day. They dont seem to care about stolen bases.

Neither does Baltimore MASN announcer Gary Thorne. On Friday he said Jacoby was on pace to break Terry Harper's Red Sox stolen base record. He never corrected himself that I heard. There was a Terry Harper who had an unremarkable career in the 80's primarily with the Braves and a Terry Harper hockey player in the 60's and 70's who won a few Stanley Cups with the Canadiens.

[LondonSox]

The amazing thing is really the lack of CS, if you're stealing at this kind of percentage when you play against a team without an absolutely great defensive catcher every walk or single increasely becomes the same as a double, and a doubel where the runner is blazingly fast and can score on some singles that others wouldn't dream of.

The doubles off the bat are lower than I expected but the steal %age and walks are much more than I expected, the doubles will likely come, if the walks stay he's going to be the lead off hitter you'd put down on paper. Plus cheap! And marketing gold!

6 steals in 2 games? Damn

[OttoC]

He's also only 7 away from breaking into the top 50 career steal leaders for the Sox. For everything that Manny has done this year, we are watching something remarkable with Ellsbury. He is on pace for over 70 steals this year. Even if he only gets 56, which at this point seems very likely barring injury, he's going to be among the top 25 career steals leaders for the Red Sox. All in his rookie season. Harry Hoover and Tris Speaker beware, you'll have company at the top of the steals list before Ellsbury becomes eligible for free agency.

That's a good point and he's now only 67 steals from breaking into the top 10 in career steals. It is not inconceivable that he could reach it this year.

[Lose Remerswaal]

That Ellsbury is only 2 SB from tying Coco's mark from all of last year is just ridiculous. There's fast, and then there's Jacoby.

And Lugo had 33 last year?

[Tito's Pullover]

So here's my question. If Ellsbury could somehow face Tim Wakefield in a whole string of consecutive games, how many do you think it would take to get the single season record?

Easy. I adjusted Ellsbury's OBP to remove his homers (it's hard to steal after going yard) and came up with an adj. OBP of .365. Then, I unscientifically allotted him 5 ABs per game. Assuming he averages one steal for every time on base vs. Wake, he would record 1.825 steals/game. Thus, it would take 30 games to tie the record, 31 to break.

Also, if he could play a full 162 game schedule versus Wake, he'd record 295 swipes.

[mabrowndog]

Thanks for the breakdown, Cliff. It'll be interesting to see if Ellsbury can also threaten Tris Speaker's career franchise marks of three 40+ seasons and five 35+ seasons. Damon was supposed to revolutionize the offense with his speed, and while he certainly added another element I don't think it ever had the impact that Jacoby's had in his brief time with the club.

For perspective, here are the Sox franchise career SB leaders. In just 84 games Ellsbury already ranks 59th. Counting today's SB, he's got 36 to tie Joe Foy and Bill Regan.

Jacoby is also racking up SBs at a faster rate than anyone in team history, in large part because of his on-base skills. I've spoilered the Top 50 below:

.	  Player			SB	  G	  PA	  PA/SB
1	  Jacoby Ellsbury   35	  84	 332	  9.49 
2	  Damian Jackson	16	 109	 172	 10.75 
3	  Otis Nixon		42	 103	 461	 10.98 
4	  Dwayne Hosey	  12	  52	 164	 13.67 
5	  Tommy Harper	 107	 409	1783	 16.66 
6	  Tris Speaker	 267	1065	4551	 17.04 
7	  Amby McConnell	61	 272	1114	 18.26 
8	  Tommy Dowd		33	 138	 642	 19.45 
9	  Harry Lord		77	 368	1581	 20.53 
10	 Coco Crisp		57	 292	1178	 20.67 
11	 Lee Tinsley	   37	 270	 768	 20.76 
12	 Julio Lugo		39	 195	 810	 20.77 
13	 Patsy Dougherty   65	 296	1359	 20.91 
14	 Billy Werber	 107	 529	2375	 22.20 
15	 Harry Niles	   31	 180	 722	 23.29 
16	 Mike McNally	  29	 278	 681	 23.48 
17	 Clyde Engle	   80	 512	1922	 24.03 
18	 Harry Hooper	 300	1647	7330	 24.43 
19	 Homer Ezzell	  21	 148	 516	 24.57 
20	 Ben Chapman	   40	 240	1040	 26.00 
21	 Jimmy Walsh		9	  71	 235	 26.11 
22	 Heinie Wagner	141	 966	3714	 26.34 
23	 Jack Thoney	   19	 148	 504	 26.53 
24	 Doc Gessler	   35	 239	 947	 27.06 
25	 Darren Lewis	  60	 469	1691	 28.18 
26	 Wally Rehg		10	 123	 282	 28.20 
27	 Chick Fewster	 15	 113	 424	 28.27 
28	 Johnny Damon	  98	 597	2782	 28.39 
29	 Juan Beniquez	 31	 233	 882	 28.45 
30	 Hal Janvrin	   62	 512	1768	 28.52 
31	 Braggo Roth		9	  63	 260	 28.89 
32	 George Whiteman	9	  75	 260	 28.89 
33	 Jake Stahl		65	 486	1890	 29.08 
34	 Amos Strunk	   23	 162	 677	 29.43 
35	 Buddy Myer		39	 280	1159	 29.72 
36	 Scott Fletcher	24	 184	 737	 30.71 
37	 Steve Dillard	 11	 124	 346	 31.45 
38	 Jimmy Collins	102	 741	3224	 31.61 
39	 Jerry Remy		98	 710	3118	 31.82 
40	 Chick Stahl	  105	 781	3407	 32.45 
41	 Freddy Parent	129	 986	4240	 32.87 
42	 Ellis Burks	   95	 733	3132	 32.97 
43	 Jose Tartabull	19	 255	 630	 33.16 
44	 Steve Lyons	   25	 328	 830	 33.20 
45	 Jeff Frye		 40	 342	1332	 33.30 
46	 Larry Gardner	134	1123	4511	 33.66 
47	 Denny Sullivan	30	 245	1021	 34.03 
48	 Ben Steiner	   10	  81	 348	 34.80 
49	 Faye Throneberry  16	 183	 560	 35.00 
50	 Jackie Gutierrez  22	 259	 788	 35.82

Edited by mabrowndog, 02 June 2008 - 02:31 AM.

[TomRicardo]

This is an important note because Jacoby and his 13% walk rate is the reason he is getting so many opportunities to swipe bags. It's unlikely he will continue to steal at a 95% rate of success but the fact that he is getting on base almost 40% of the time and has been relatively automatic when stealing makes him an incredibly rare weapon. We heard since the OSU days how exciting a player he is, but he is really showing far more promise than we could have hoped for in that regard so far.

I am not too sure about that. I think Francona is very careful with his spots. I mean if Ellsbury was on the Angels, White Sox, or Reds right now he would have a lower percentage but he would also have about 50+ steals at this point. Ellsbury does not run as much as someone with his speed and OBP would usually run.

[SydneySox]

More than if he could face the Orioles every day. They dont seem to care about stolen bases.

... And it helps when he can get onto second base with Ortiz at the plate. Teams pulling the overshift against Papi virtually cede him 3rd. No third baseman playing in the shortstop hole can beat him to the bag, even with the head-start.

[burstnbloom]

I am not too sure about that. I think Francona is very careful with his spots. I mean if Ellsbury was on the Angels, White Sox, or Reds right now he would have a lower percentage but he would also have about 50+ steals at this point. Ellsbury does not run as much as someone with his speed and OBP would usually run.

The best base stealers in the history of the game have been around 85% for their careers. I think it is a little bit lofty to expect Ellsbury to be the most efficient base stealer in the history of baseball. He is extremely fast and seems to have good instincts but his CS are going to go up a little bit. In fact after stealing his first 22 bases with no CS he has been caught 3 times in 17 attempts for an 83% success rate. I think expecting him to stay at 95% success rate is unfair.

[Koufax]

... And it helps when he can get onto second base with Ortiz at the plate. Teams pulling the overshift against Papi virtually cede him 3rd. No third baseman playing in the shortstop hole can beat him to the bag, even with the head-start.

In fact, I think it was a mistake for Ellsbury to steal 3d in that circumstance. It freed up the third baseman to play closer to the shortstop position. That might change, however, if Ellsbury starts to steal home . . .

[TomRicardo]

In fact, I think it was a mistake for Ellsbury to steal 3d in that circumstance. It freed up the third baseman to play closer to the shortstop position. That might change, however, if Ellsbury starts to steal home . . .

How does the sight disadvantage in position overshadow the advantage of having someone one base forward? Especially with 0 or 1 outs, I much rather have Ellsbury at third instead of second in fact I can't imagine a postion where you wouldn't.

[Koufax]

How does the sight disadvantage in position overshadow the advantage of having someone one base forward? Especially with 0 or 1 outs, I much rather have Ellsbury at third instead of second in fact I can't imagine a postion where you wouldn't.

The hole that Ortiz had on the left side with Ellsbury on 2d was enormous. A ground ball almost anywhere on the left side, and Ellsbury scores from second. Ellsbury can steal almost at will, so he could wait for Manny to get to the plate before taking third.

That said, what actually happened on one of the steals of 3d base on Saturday (when was the last time a RS player stole 3d twice in one game?) is that Ortiz hit a short fly to left field that nobody would have tried to run home on, except that Ellsbury did and he was safe. That run would not have scored but for the steal. So the case for remaining on 2d is not exactly airtight.

[leithbones]

Thanks for the breakdown, Cliff. It'll be interesting to see if Ellsbury can also threaten Tris Speaker's career franchise marks of three 40+ seasons and five 35+ seasons. Damon was supposed to revolutionize the offense with his speed, and while he certainly added another element I don't think it ever had the impact that Jacoby's had in his brief time with the club.

For perspective, here are the Sox franchise career SB leaders. In just 84 games Ellsbury already ranks 59th. Counting today's SB, he's got 36 to tie Joe Foy and Bill Regan.

Jacoby is also racking up SBs at a faster rate than anyone in team history, in large part because of his on-base skills. I've spoilered the Top 50 below:

I can't quite come up with an analogy for being the career stolen base leader for the Sox, but it is a very low bar to hurdle. Maybe The Smartest Kid on the Short Bus?
Hooper's history includes periods when MLB stats on CS are not recorded (BP)

CS are not available for the NL from 1876-1950 (except for 1915, 1920-25, and some players for 1916), in the AL from 1901-19 (except 1914-15 and some 1916 players)

but he had some pretty ugly SB/CS stretches; a three year stretch of 68/45, and his last year in Boston, 16/18. The Sox were turning managers at a McDonalds-like pace then; the Hall-of-Famer probably said "Shut up, I'll run if I want to."
White Sox career 75/58 in five seasons.
Career 375 SB in 17 years, but his 122 CS is based on only 9 of 17 seasons (8 years missing data).

[TomRicardo]

The hole that Ortiz had on the left side with Ellsbury on 2d was enormous. A ground ball almost anywhere on the left side, and Ellsbury scores from second. Ellsbury can steal almost at will, so he could wait for Manny to get to the plate before taking third.

That said, what actually happened on one of the steals of 3d base on Saturday (when was the last time a RS player stole 3d twice in one game?) is that Ortiz hit a short fly to left field that nobody would have tried to run home on, except that Ellsbury did and he was safe. That run would not have scored but for the steal. So the case for remaining on 2d is not exactly airtight.

The reason people do the shift to Ortiz is that he so rarely hits the ball to the left side of the infield. He is much more likely to ground to the right side (usually into shallow left) or fly out. In both those cases you want Ellsbury on third not second.

[SydneySox]

The reason people do the shift to Ortiz is that he so rarely hits the ball to the left side of the infield. He is much more likely to ground to the right side (usually into shallow left) or fly out. In both those cases you want Ellsbury on third not second.

Yes, if only for the sacrifice fly.

It also allows Ellsbury a bigger lead at third if the third baseman leaves him alone, letting him score more easily on a groundout.

If the third baseman plays his position it kills the overshift. Win/Win.

[MentalDisabldLst]

The best base stealers in the history of the game have been around 85% for their careers. I think it is a little bit lofty to expect Ellsbury to be the most efficient base stealer in the history of baseball. He is extremely fast and seems to have good instincts but his CS are going to go up a little bit. In fact after stealing his first 22 bases with no CS he has been caught 3 times in 17 attempts for an 83% success rate. I think expecting him to stay at 95% success rate is unfair.

They probably got down to 85% after losing a step or two off their wheels after their youth had left them. I bet someone could do a better study of Brock, Henderson and all the great base stealers and look at that, but it stands to reason as a hypothesis. There's no reason Ellsbury couldn't steal at a 90%+ pace for a few seasons before slowing down. Heck, right now even perfect throws aren't getting him out, only perfect throws on bad jumps.

edit: disclosure... in Rickey's first 5 full seasons he was 460 / 587, aka 78%, and was 82% for the rest of his career.

Edited by MentalDisabldLst, 04 June 2008 - 12:27 AM.