36 replies to this topic

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I don't exactly see the point of this.

It would be one thing if Lugo was hitting .300/.375/.400, or better. But with him at .283/.345/.339 - and no signs of stepping it up - what exactly is the point of running him out there for the first 7 or 8 innings? His empty .283 BA? The calculations are over my head, admittedly, but I would have to assume his miscues are not worth the middling offense he provides.

I'd rather see Cora get the run from the get-go. Or call Lowrie back up and give him some time.

[TFisNEXT]

But isn't Lugo a better defender?


I mean he is more prone to errors, but his range is superior to Cora's isn't it? Maybe I'm wrong...does someone have Cora's defensive range stats compared to Lugo's the past 3 or 4 years?

[sox junky]

But isn't Lugo a better defender?
I mean he is more prone to errors, but his range is superior to Cora's isn't it? Maybe I'm wrong...does someone have Cora's defensive range stats compared to Lugo's the past 3 or 4 years?

I don't have the stats handy right now, but the Fielding Bible showed Cora to be better than Lugo last year. It's available from billjames online. I'll dig it out later.

[mabrowndog]

I don't exactly see the point of this.

It would be one thing if Lugo was hitting .300/.375/.400, or better. But with him at .283/.345/.339 - and no signs of stepping it up - what exactly is the point of running him out there for the first 7 or 8 innings? His empty .283 BA? The calculations are over my head, admittedly, but I would have to assume his miscues are not worth the middling offense he provides.

I'm not going to be a Lugo apologist for his fielding, but when it comes to his work as a hitter he's clearly shouldering far more animosity and blame on this board than he deserves.

That "empty .283 BA" is 3rd among AL starting shortstops behind only Jeter (.302) and Michael Young (.289).

"Middling offense"? His ..348 OBP is also 3rd among AL starting shortstops, trailing only Young (.356) and Marco Scutaro (.350).

I'm also curious how you arrived at this seemingly arbitrary .300/.375/.400 benchmark of acceptability.

Lugo's no stud at the plate, but he's no dud either.

[TFisNEXT]

I don't have the stats handy right now, but the Fielding Bible showed Cora to be better than Lugo last year. It's available from billjames online. I'll dig it out later.

Cora's a sub though, so you'd like to see a higher sample size. I'll totally agree with the idea if Cora is the better defender based on a higher sample size like 3-4 years.

[LondonSox]

I'm not going to be a Lugo apologist for his fielding, but when it comes to his work as a hitter he's clearly shouldering far more animosity and blame on this board than he deserves.

That "empty .283 BA" is 3rd among AL starting shortstops behind only Jeter (.302) and Michael Young (.289).

"Middling offense"? His ..348 OBP is also 3rd among AL starting shortstops, trailing only Young (.356) and Marco Scutaro (.350).

I'm also curious how you arrived at this seemingly arbitrary .300/.375/.400 benchmark of acceptability.

Lugo's no stud at the plate, but he's no dud either.

I completely second this he WAS and empty average, but his average has dropped while his OBP has bene more stable around the mid 300s. That is perfectly reasonable number, the power isn't there but 700OPS as a shortstop is not a disaster or an empty number, and frankly his defense has never been this bad, so you have to wonder if there is an issue. Last year's lugo defensively putting up 350 OBP and even with limited power is not a black hole.

Bash him for the errors if you must but unless he's suddenly changed defensively to a new lower level for good, it doesn't seem like he's a disasterous starter

[Razor Shines]

To add to MBD's point, Lugo is not only the superior hitter over his career (.271/.334/.393 vs .245/.311/.348), but far superior baserunner. When Lugo gets on first base, he is a threat to take second. Francona took advantage of this last year quite a bit, as he had 33 swipes and an 85% success rate.

The defensive comparison is a tough call. Neither guy really inspires memories of Mark Belanger. Speaking from anecdotal evidence only, I would say that Lugo covers a bit more ground than Cora, but Cora is probably a bit more sure-handed and has a more accurate throwing arm.

[OCD SS]

Lugo's no stud at the plate, but he's no dud either.

While I don't agree with PP's phrasing, I can see his point: this isn't the SS equivalent of the Sox bringing in Coco after Manny has had his last AB. The difference between Lugo's and Cora's bat is pretty minor (I don't see much difference in their defense either); but if Lugo is deemed deficient enough in the field that he needs to be replaced in the late innings then I don't see the point of having him on the roster. Why not just play Lowrie and have Cora be his late inning caddy?

You shouldn't be pulling your up the middle players for defense.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Cora, to my untrained eye, has far less range than Lugo does at SS. Perhaps his hands are surer than Lugo's (although that was not the case last night), but I think the potentially smaller range Cora covers is not worth the substitution. Everyone's down on Lugo for sins real and imaginary; I hope to hell that Tito had concrete evidence that Cora's fielding is definitively better than Lugo's before making this change.

Frankly, I think it's very odd that Tito would start doing this. Cora's not really a great SS.

[Tito's Pullover]

You know what? I'm not entirely convinced this is a long term thing. There was only one sentence in the article relevant to what Tito has said on the issue:

Red Sox manager Terry Francona spoke with both Cora and Lugo about the possibility of using Cora as a late-inning defensive replacement at shortstop.

So he talked to them about the possibility of it. And then, he did it once. Bradford made a huge logical leap to say that because Cora made this one appearance as a late inning defensive replacement, that it would be the new, carved-in-stone M.O. for Terry Francona.

Cora will be the defensive replacement just like Wily Mo Pena got his 450 ABs in '06 and '07. And in three weeks this idea will have been forgotten.

[OttoC]

What's the break-even point? When does the number of errors committed by a player outweigh his greater range? I realize this is a very broad question but I think it merits some consideration.

[InsideTheParker]

There is a discussion beginning here (FP VS. UZR, in which some of us were taken to the woodshed for suggesting Cora is the better defender. The figures show that Lugo's range is much greater, allowing him to get to more balls, thereby increasing his risk of error.

It does seem to me that Cora is more reliable, but I guess the numbers don't lie.

[Kevin Youkulele]

What's the break-even point? When does the number of errors committed by a player outweigh his greater range? I realize this is a very broad question but I think it merits some consideration.

I would think this is pretty simple: the break even point should be when balls fielded above average (extra range) = balls muffed above average (extra errors). When comparing two actual shortstops, you'd compare the differentials between the effects of their range and errors. This could undergo some adjustment in that the number of balls not fielded, which will be singles to left or center, may have a lesser run value on average than errors, some of which may be 2 base errors if the throw is wild. On the other hand, it may be that runners on second score less often on E6's than on "singles" that could have been fielded by a SS, although perhaps not in Fenway. This will probably be a fairly small component of the overall value, though, which will be primarily tied up in whether the batter is out or reaches base (my somewhat hazy recollection of linear weights is that converting an out to a 'single'/reach on error is about 0.7-0.8 runs, and an extra base is about 0.2).

edit:

Vizquel still has a terrific glove and can hit.

Vizquel's 2007 OPS was 0.621. (So far this year it's 0.888, but that's in 25 ABs.) Lugo's was 0.643.

Edited by Kevin Youkulele, 18 May 2008 - 09:53 AM.

[DJnVa]

Vizquel is quite fond of Boston but would be interested only if he were a starter. He has a close relationship with Manny Ramírez from their Cleveland days. Vizquel still has a terrific glove and can hit.

Ehhh?

OPS+ since 2000: 92, 75, 104, 78, 99, 82, 93, 62

Yes, yes, I know OPS+ has a few flaws, but still...

Then again, he wouldn't be replacing Jimmy Rollins.

[OCD SS]

I think the only way Omar makes sense is as a way to clear Lugo's contract (assuming that the Giants look at him as a SS they would have under their control for awhile and that they would be essentially traded for each other (with $ going to the Giants)). That looks like someone at the globe trying to see what might stick to the wall rather than actually reporting on anything...

[sox junky]

In my opinion, the Fielding Bible is the best fielding statistic around. Billjamesonline.net has all the statistics available (costs $3/month), but they're starting to have 2008 statistics on-line also. Pretty cool if you can afford it.

Cora and Lugo have 2006 - 2008 data on-line.

In 2006 Cora was a +4 (in 434 innings), while in 2007 Cora was a +3 (in 202 innings). 2008 is 0 (in 52 innings).

In 2006 Lugo was a -10 (in 647 innings), in 2007 he was a +1 (in 1228 innings), and in 2008 he is a -6 (in 315 innings). His 2008 data puts him 30th among SS in MLB.

Slightly off-topic, but interesting looking at Crisp vs Ellsbury in CF in 2008 so far...

Ellsbury is +2 in 176 innings (22nd ranked arm); while Crisp is +1 in 211 innings (32nd ranked throwing arm).

[geoduck no quahog]

All I know, is that if Lugo were replaced by a great-fielding shortstop - the Red Sox could have the best defensive infield in the League. That means a lot more to me than OPS.

How does an infield like that impact the team's ERA?

[sox junky]

Was asked for fielding bible numbers for Omar Vizquel:

2006: +7
2007: +20
2008: +2 (63 innings)

[TheYaz67]

So he talked to them about the possibility of it. And then, he did it once. Bradford made a huge logical leap to say that because Cora made this one appearance as a late inning defensive replacement, that it would be the new, carved-in-stone M.O. for Terry Francona.

Cora will be the defensive replacement just like Wily Mo Pena got his 450 ABs in '06 and '07. And in three weeks this idea will have been forgotten.

This thread got a bit buried because of all the Lester excitement, but it happened again last night, so perhaps Bradford wasn't talking out his ass....

[NYCSox]

This thread got a bit buried because of all the Lester excitement, but it happened again last night, so perhaps Bradford wasn't talking out his ass....

Which is very interesting since in a 7-0 game involving a no-hitter you would want the guy with better range in the field even if he is more prone to committing errors since you don't care as much about an error as you do in giving up a seeing eye hit. Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude that the Sox believe that Cora has better range than Lugo.

[OttoC]

Which is very interesting since in a 7-0 game involving a no-hitter you would want the guy with better range in the field even if he is more prone to committing errors since you don't care as much about an error as you do in giving up a seeing eye hit. Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude that the Sox believe that Cora has better range than Lugo.

A has less range at shortstop than B. A can't get to the ball and it goes into left field for a single. B can get to the ball but can't throw out the runner, who reaches on an infield single. Maybe a sure hand is better because he doesn't boot the third out and make the pitcher face a new batter and throw more pitches. Yes, B could get to a ball and throw out the batter, one that A could not, but at least some of the time it won't matter which is playing.

[NYCSox]

A has less range at shortstop than B. A can't get to the ball and it goes into left field for a single. B can get to the ball but can't throw out the runner, who reaches on an infield single. Maybe a sure hand is better because he doesn't boot the third out and make the pitcher face a new batter and throw more pitches. Yes, B could get to a ball and throw out the batter, one that A could not, but at least some of the time it won't matter which is playing.

Right, but at that point in a no-hitter where the outcome has been decided, all you care about is getting to the ball. Nothing else really matters.

[Dogman2]

Any chance Lugo still feels the effects of his concussion and this is a short term thing?

[Quintanariffic]

FWIW, the folks at SoxProspects insist they heard Gammons on BBTN say something to the effect of "We all know that Lowrie will be the starting SS in Boston in three weeks".

Just Gammo being Gammo.

Edited by Quintanariffic, 20 May 2008 - 05:56 PM.

[templeUsox]

We don't have to insist on it. Everyone who has an ESPN insider membership can go to the Baseball Today podcast and listen to Peter Pasquerelli's interview with Gammons today, where, per usual, he non-chalantly said, "We all know that Jed Lowrie is going to be the starting shortstop in two weeks."

[mabrowndog]

So is it two weeks or three??

I need to know these things so I can mark it on my calendar.

[templeUsox]

Two.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Right, but at that point in a no-hitter where the outcome has been decided, all you care about is getting to the ball. Nothing else really matters.

I was shocked Tito stuck the guy with lesser range out there in the 9th on Monday night. You want the guy with greater range out there to preserve the no-no; maybe he'll get to a ball and throw it away, but that would be an error and the no-no would still be intact. Cora's much more likely to simply let a ball get by him for a base hit than Lugo.

Strange reasoning. I can see an argument to be made that in a close game you want the surehanded guy out there, but in a 7-0 no-hitter give me the guy with more range. That's Lugo.

Kugo is actually contributing some at the plate these days and his fielding has settled down since the road trip. I would be shocked if Gammo's prediction comes true about Lowrie. And I still haven't seen anything from Lowrie that indicates he can play competent SS at the major league level.

[Quintanariffic]

I was shocked Tito stuck the guy with lesser range out there in the 9th on Monday night. You want the guy with greater range out there to preserve the no-no; maybe he'll get to a ball and throw it away, but that would be an error and the no-no would still be intact. Cora's much more likely to simply let a ball get by him for a base hit than Lugo.

Strange reasoning. I can see an argument to be made that in a close game you want the surehanded guy out there, but in a 7-0 no-hitter give me the guy with more range. That's Lugo.

Kugo is actually contributing some at the plate these days and his fielding has settled down since the road trip. I would be shocked if Gammo's prediction comes true about Lowrie. And I still haven't seen anything from Lowrie that indicates he can play competent SS at the major league level.

Nor have you seen anything indicating that Masterson is the right guy for last night's start, so you'll have to pardon my skepticism in your scouting chops.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Nor have you seen anything indicating that Masterson is the right guy for last night's start, so you'll have to pardon my skepticism in your scouting chops.

Oh, I love playing Internet Gotcha!

Masterson pitched great last night, to my pleasant surprise. He looked like crap in the minors before that start; last night's start doesn't change that fact.

Lowrie doesn't look like he has the range to be a full time major league SS to me. Maybe I'm wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last. Be sure to point that out in a public asshole style when that happens; we'd all appreciate that.

[Quintanariffic]

Oh, I love playing Internet Gotcha!

Masterson pitched great last night, to my pleasant surprise. He looked like crap in the minors before that start; last night's start doesn't change that fact.

Lowrie doesn't look like he has the range to be a full time major league SS to me. Maybe I'm wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last. Be sure to point that out in a public asshole style when that happens; we'd all appreciate that.

Apologies. This was less a case of Internet Gotcha than it was a reaction to the legions of self-styled scouting experts here who talk in absolutes and certainties w/o the faintest clue what they're talking about. Count me among them at times.

FWIW, I didn't have quite the same reaction to Lowrie's range and it seemed clear to my untrained eyes that his bat would more than make up for any defensive downgrade. Hard to tell given the small sample size either way, so I'd like to see some more games with Lowrie to evaluate his hands, pivot, etc... - all key components in a fair evaluation.

[Frisbetarian]

Oh, I love playing Internet Gotcha!

Masterson pitched great last night, to my pleasant surprise. He looked like crap in the minors before that start; last night's start doesn't change that fact.

Lowrie doesn't look like he has the range to be a full time major league SS to me. Maybe I'm wrong; it wouldn't be the first time and it won't be the last.

For what it's worth, here's my take on the Red Sox shortstops.

I would be shocked if the Red Sox made Lowrie their full-time SS. This team seems to value defense at SS quite a bit (Nomar, Rentaria), and from what I can see, Lowrie gets a bad jump on balls (almost seems to take a few baby steps before getting going, like Fred Flinstone in his car) which limits his range. He also has weird footwork on some of his throws, taking multiple hop steps before releasing the ball.

Concerning Lugo and Cora, I suspect this is a temporary arrangement caused by Lugo's mental troubles in the field and, possibly, his concussion. I concur with the majority here that Lugo has better range to either side, comes in on balls better, and is about even with Cora going back on pop-ups (neither is great). Lugo also has a stronger arm. Cora has better hands, a much more accurate arm, and, most importantly for the time being, does not get the "yips" in the field which Lugo is prone to do.

Cora's defensive evaluations are all over the place, with one, The Hardball Times, listing Cora as one of only 14 players in MLB to get an A+ grade . One huge problem (and there are others) with this type of evaluation is that the sample size is just too small for Cora, a part time player. With a limited number of chances per season, and with so many of them routine, it really takes 3 seasons of full-time data for a defensive evaluation to be legit, in my opinion. THT correctly does use three years of data for their defensive evaluations, but Cora only played only 882 innings at SS over 2005 - 2007, the equivalent of 98 full games, and not nearly enough to make a definitive judgment on his defensive ability. Overall, Cora had 1660 defensive innings over the three seasons at 2nd, SS, and 3rd, or just over one full time season.

One last point in this rambling post, AL SS's thus far in 2008 have posted a pathetic cumulative OPS of .656, which makes Lugo (.680) a better than average offensive SS thus far this season.

[yep]

This gives me a headache.

Julio Lugo is not a bad hitter, *for a shortstop.* Shortstop is such an important defensive position that light bats are tolerated when they are wielded by solid defenders, who can prevent a lot of runs to make up for their lack of production at the plate. But if the guy cannot field the position and needs a late-inning defensive replacement, then there is no excuse for comparing his bat to other shortstops.

Being a defensive liability negates the right to use the defensive value of your position as an excuse for mediocre batting. If Julio Lugo cannot *field* like a shortstop, then he cannot be let off the hook for hitting like a shortstop. That's pushing down both sides of the value seesaw at once.

If a team is willing to tolerate poor defense at SS, why not move an outfielder or a corner infielder there (Derek Jeter) and get some real offense from the position?

I'll let smarter people than I actually establish Lugo's defensive value (or lack thereof). But the essential proposition of a defensive replacement for a mediocre hitter is kind of absurd and smacks of a sort of double-counting.

[Harry Hooper]

Tito on WEEI today said inserting Cora was mainly to protect post-concussion Lugo mentally from a late game miscue. He indicated it might be a limited-duration thing.

[Kevin Youkulele]

Tito on WEEI today said inserting Cora was mainly to protect post-concussion Lugo mentally from a late game miscue. He indicated it might be a limited-duration thing.

That almost sounds like he's worried about the fans booing the snot out of Lugo after such a miscue.