26 replies to this topic

[Ed Hillel]

Ok, so I just got back from the game. Since I don't see a thread for post game-analysis here, I'm going to start one. I hope someone isn't in the midst of doing the same. Here are some interesting things that I noticed:


1. Beckett appeared to be getting ahead most of the night. His problems came with two outs and, many times, with two strikes. I'm not sure if the gun at the ballpark was accurate, but it had Beckett consistently around 93-94 with the change-up coming in around 87. Those numbers, obviously, are low for Beckett. Just for contrast, the gun did have both Delcarmen and Aardsma up around 96. For whatever reason, Beckett didn't have his dominant stuff tonight. I thought he was actually pitching well most of the game, but he couldn't seem to put people away like he usually does. All 5 runs came with 2 outs.

2. As much as we shit on Lugo, Cora has absolutely no range. Watching him live showcased it quite well. I don't know if it's age or just a lack of quickness, but he doesn't move around much out there. Lugo does have bad hands, but he can probably cover the most ground of any of the current options. At such an important defensive position, I can't see justifying Cora at short unless we assume that he's going to hit like an upper echelon shortstop. That, however, is very unlikely. Lowrie is another story, but I'll leave that debate for another time.

3. Manny's AB was a great battle and the crowd was really into it. He appears to be seeing the ball well at the plate the last few games and it appeared the same way tonight. Unfortunately, Manny couldn't quite time things right and Johnson just kept making pitches. I think that's one where you have to tip your cap to the pitcher and move on.

4. Varitek's baserunning probably cost the Sox an important run in the 8th inning. Tek was on first, Ellsbury was on second, and Cora lined a single to right. Markakis scooped the ball up on one hop and threw the ball all the way to the plate for a play on Ellsbury. It was clear, from the moment the ball left Markakis's hand, that the ball was well over the head of the cutoff man. I know it may have been a difficult ball to judge off Cora's bat and that the play was behind him, but Varitek should have looked back and recognized that the throw was coming in high and he should have taken 3rd base, especially considering that there was 1 out. Although we can never know how things could have played out differently (What did Michael Kay call that? The "fallacy" or something?), Casey ended up lining a shot to deep left that easily would have scored Varitek. Even if that had not happened, we all know the importance of being on 3rd as opposed to 2nd with 1 out late in a one-run game.

5. Declarmen was sharp tonight, as was Aardsma. It was probably a perfect situation for each to come in and gain some confidence back. Hopefully they did.

6. I don't know how it looked on replay, but we all thought it was pretty clear that Ortiz swung. While he had a right to be upset that there was no appeal, he came off as acting like a whiny bitch, especially when he refused to leave the dugout. I suppose it's possible he didn't know he got tossed but, even after the first base umpire told him to leave he hung around for a while. Not his finest moment.

7. The Baltimore fans were really terrible and the city itself is a shithole. CNNSI ranking Camden 5th for nicest area surrounding the ballpark is a farse. Most of what should be said belongs in P+G, but I might advise against bringing the kids to Camden in the future unless you're in a luxury box or packing heat. The ballpark itself is great, though. It's like the eye of a category 5 hurricane.

[TomRicardo]

7. The Baltimore fans were really terrible and the city itself is a shithole. CNNSI ranking Camden 5th for nicest area surrounding the ballpark is a farse. Most of what should be said belongs in P+G, but I might advise against bringing the kids to Camden in the future unless you're in a luxury box or packing heat. The ballpark itself is great, though. It's like the eye of a category 5 hurricane.

Really? I thought Camden was pretty nice last year during the Bash.

[Ed Hillel]

Really? I thought Camden was pretty nice last year during the Bash.

Camden itself is beautiful. The harbor is ok, but there are a ton of hotels and a lack of good bars/restaurants surrounding it. If you go in almost any other direction than the harbor from Camden...

Well, just take my word for it and don't.

[Vermonter At Large]

I thought Beckett did a pretty good job of containment pitching, probably knowing he didn't have his great stuff last night. I do think the defense let him down somewhat and except for the tater he gave up to Scott, did a fairly decent job of it.

I also thought Delcarmen looked very sharp. He established his breaking ball early, which may be the key. I don't think he's very good at locating his fastball, so if batters can sit on it they can eventually hit it, even at 96 or 97 mph.

Orioles are a much improved team this year, with some good young hitters and a much-improved bullpen. With both the Yankees and Sox going the youth route, I think the gap has definitely narrowed between them and the rest of the pack in the A.L. East.

Is Eric still doing his umpire ratings in these threads? I thought Diaz did a great job behind the plate last night (as he usually does) and would love to see the breakdowns.

I think they will most certainly have to make a roster move if Drew is unable to play tonight. Crisp leaving the game with stomach problems showed how thin they are, and Ellsbury didn't look 100% last night either.

Edited by Vermonter At Large, 14 May 2008 - 04:59 AM.

[Vermonter At Large]

Camden itself is beautiful. The harbor is ok, but there are a ton of hotels and a lack of good bars/restaurants surrounding it. If you go in almost any other direction than the harbor from Camden...

Well, just take my word for it and don't.

I think there is a big difference in the area from day games (very pleasant) to night games (less pleasant).

[OttoC]

Is Eric still doing his umpire ratings in these threads? I thought Diaz did a great job behind the plate last night (as he usually does) and would love to see the breakdowns.

Watching on television, I thought the pitch calling was inconsistent and the strike zone very wide at times, I'm basing this on first impressions of pitches and not on the numerous replays with the strike zone evaluator the Orioles' broadcasters kept bringing up.

Incidentally, they questioned whether Ortiz swung. He didn't swing but the bat did go through the strike zone as he turned to get out of the way of the pitch and I can understand how an umpire could call it in real-time without the benefit of replays.

[Eric Van]

At one point we were 5-1 in games won by a team whose Win probability had fallen below 25%. We are now 5-7.

Karma Log

Won After < .25	Lost After > .75	Hero(es)	Goat(s)
3/25 @ "Oak" (.095)		Ramirez, Moss	Street
	4/9 vs. Det (.807)	Renteria	Lester, Pedroia
4/14 @ Cle (.083)		Ramirez, Youkilis	Borowski
4/19 vs. Tex (.175)		Ramirez	Benoit
4/20 vs. Tex (.033)		Pedroia, Casey	Wilson
4/22 vs. LAA (.119)		Pedroia, Ellsbury	Weaver, Guerrero
	4/24 vs. LAA (.846)	Matthews	middle relief (MDC, Oki, Lopez)
	4/26 at TB (.757)	Iwamura	offense
(was .067)	5/7 at Det (.847)	Polanco	Papelbon
(was .125)	5/9 at Min (.857)	Lamb	Papelbon
	5/12 at Min (.751)	Morneau, Monroe	Buchholz
	5/13 at Bal (.777)	L. Scott, Sherrill	Beckett, Ramirez

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

3. Manny's AB was a great battle and the crowd was really into it. He appears to be seeing the ball well at the plate the last few games and it appeared the same way tonight. Unfortunately, Manny couldn't quite time things right and Johnson just kept making pitches. I think that's one where you have to tip your cap to the pitcher and move on.

As great as Johnson seemed to pitch last night, he's only got 9 Ks in 21 innings. He's not THAT good.

As great of a battle as that was, that inning turned out dreadfully and was the single biggest reason the Sox lost the ballgame. You have to score at least 1 run in that situation if not 2. The fact that the Sox got nothing out of a prime scoring chance late in a close game means they didn't deserve to win the game. Manny's 1-2-3 double play was the absolute worst of all possible outcomes, save for the extremely rare triple play. It would have been far, far better if he had struck out.

The Sox went 2-11 with RISP last night. This is on the heels of a game in which they had 13 hits but scored only 3 runs. They are having a lot of trouble cashing in on their opportunities. This team can be maddening to watch at times.

[tailwind]

The Sox went 2-11 with RISP last night. This is on the heels of a game in which they had 13 hits but scored only 3 runs. They are having a lot of trouble cashing in on their opportunities. This team can be maddening to watch at times.

Well, to put it simply, over the course of a 162 game season, that kind of shit happens to every team...several times. The fact that they're still getting men in scoring position and putting up hits says that it's bound to turn around.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, to put it simply, over the course of a 162 game season, that kind of shit happens to every team...several times. The fact that they're still getting men in scoring position and putting up hits says that it's bound to turn around.

Wasn't it last year we had a conversation along similar lines? It seems to me I remember we did the study and found that the Sox underscored their expected performance by around 40 runs given their number of baserunners. If I'm remembering all that correctly then it's very possible it won't necessarily turn around.

[Zupcic Fan]

I have no idea whether or not they get punished by umpires for this, but I find it annoying, and in last night's game
it happened numerous times, how often Red Sox players whine and complain about called strikes that clearly are either strikes or close enough to not take the pitch because they are usually called strikes.

I know that Youkilis was glorified in Moneyball and all, but he should realize that occasionally when he thinks a pitch is a ball, he might be wrong. And forget about ortiz. On just about every pitch that he takes that is called a strike, his next move is to look back either quizzically or disgustedly at the umpire.

[tailwind]

Wasn't it last year we had a conversation along similar lines? It seems to me I remember we did the study and found that the Sox underscored their expected performance by around 40 runs given their number of baserunners. If I'm remembering all that correctly then it's very possible it won't necessarily turn around.

But there is zero reasonable explanation as to why that happened other than, well...shit happens. Sometimes a team overperforms, sometimes it underperforms, there isn't always necessarily a reason for it. The Oakland A's, in the beginning of this year, were absolutely destroying the ball with runners in scoring position, do they have a discernable knack for the skill in comparison to Boston's hitters? No. The Red Sox offense is superior in nearly every way.

The fact that the last two games were (to put it simply) squanderfests doesn't mean anything in the long term. Actually, "underscoring their expected performance" might just be a natural side effect of building a lineup around patient high-OBP hitters...the more baserunners you have, the more you're going to leave when you make the last out of the inning.

Edited by tailwind, 14 May 2008 - 07:47 AM.

[Ed Hillel]

As great as Johnson seemed to pitch last night, he's only got 9 Ks in 21 innings. He's not THAT good.

Well, the guy's doing something right this year. Even with the poor K:BB ratio (9:7), he's managed to keep his WHIP down to .79 and his BAA to .143 in 22.2 IP. He also hasn't given up a home run. Obviously, Manny hit the ball to the worst possible place but he did put on a good at bat. It was quite unfortunate that it ended the way it did.

I also can't agree that it is the single biggest reason the Sox lost. If I had to pick one thing that stood out, it would be Beckett's inability to close out batters with two strikes and/or two outs. The on AB that really stands out to me is the Millar AB that opened the floodgates. He had just struck out the last two batters, was ahead 1-2, and couldn't get an inside fastball by Millar. Then he grooved one on the inner half to Scott about knee high, right into a lefty's power spot.

That Varitek blunder gets me, too. Did anyone on either broadcast call Varitek out for that? The second I looked over and saw 'Tek still on second, I could sense the deep flyball coming. Casey ripped that ball, too. As did Pedroia after him. That was a frustrating sequence of events to watch.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 14 May 2008 - 07:51 AM.

[NomarRS05]

Wasn't it last year we had a conversation along similar lines? It seems to me I remember we did the study and found that the Sox underscored their expected performance by around 40 runs given their number of baserunners. If I'm remembering all that correctly then it's very possible it won't necessarily turn around.

The stranded runners are awfully frustrating especially when the team is skidding. But let's not blame the offense here. They're the highest scoring team in the A.L. by a good margin. It's the pitching that blows right now and is preventing them from running away and hiding from the Yankees or anyone else in that division. They've allowed more runs than anyone in the A.L. East. We were supposed to have this rotation loaded with talent, but you look around now and only Detroit and Texas have given up more runs in the A.L. This is a problem folks, and I'm not exactly sure there's an answer for it.

Having said that, we've also played more road games than anyone in baseball if I'm not mistaken. That certainly hasn't helped matters.

[loshjott]

Camden itself is beautiful. The harbor is ok, but there are a ton of hotels and a lack of good bars/restaurants surrounding it. If you go in almost any other direction than the harbor from Camden...

Well, just take my word for it and don't.

I've taken my kids to Camden Yards about 25 times in the past several years - day and night. The neighborhoods in the immediate vicinity are fine. You are over-reacting to a lousy game.

[Ed Hillel]

I've taken my kids to Camden Yards about 25 times in the past several years - day and night. The neighborhoods in the immediate vicinity are fine. You are over-reacting to a lousy game.

You would not have wanted your kids sitting in my section, I can tell you that. Unless you wanted them learning words like "fucking faggot" and "cunt." We weren't the ones being yelled at, but the people who were were minding their own business and doing nothing but "Let's go Red Sox" chants. They also happened to be sitting right behind us, so it was getting screamed directly into our ears. It was fans of all ages too, not just your typical drunken college kids. Although there were plenty of them, too. Our section alone, which was pretty small, had probably 4 or 5 small groups band together all hammered and spewing that language. It wasn't much better on the way out. "Boston is a shithole," "Fuck you faggots back to Boston," "Belicheat is a cunt." There were a lot of people like this too, not just a few kids pissing in the punch bowl. We passed about 4 spots where people had just pulled over and were yelling this garbage.

I'm not sure if people felt empowered because it was the first home game of the season against the Sox and that there were actually more Orioles' fans there than Sox's, but last night was not a family atmosphere. It doesn't bother me at all, because I can take it, but I wouldn't want my kids there. This was probably my 7th or so time there and last night was different so I'm willing to give it a mulligan, but last night was bad. It was approaching the level of bleacher creature; the people seemed possessed. Maybe we just got unlucky and were at the game where O's fans let out all their pent up rage from having Sox's and Yankees' fans constantly take over their home.

As for the surrounding area, we'll agree to disagree.

Also, I apologize for this tangent. People can feel free to respond to this, but I'll keep future discussion on the game itself. Send a PM my way if you'd like.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 14 May 2008 - 09:31 AM.

[Razor Shines]

I'm not sure if people felt empowered because it was the first home game of the season against the Sox and that there were actually more Orioles' fans there than Sox's, but last night was not a family atmosphere.

I've been down there a handful of times before this season, and even from watching TV last night I could see that the O's fans seemed to have a bit more of an edge to them than usual. Boston sports fans are probably the most hated fans in America right now, and witnessing your stadium being sacked by opposing fans for 5 years adds gasoline to the bitterness.

The team jumped to a surprising start this season. However, it's hard to see them staying in contention. Once the team starts losing, Camden Yards will quiet down and once again become "Fenway South" for future road trips.

[JimRiceHOFer]

I would agree with Ed Hillel...The atmosphere in the stadium last night was very ugly. Usually in Baltimore the fans respond to the "Let's Go Red Sox" chants with "Let's Go O's" chants and it generally stays positive towards each team.

Having been to Baltimore many times over the years, they are generally great fans. But last night it was ugly all around. People yelling and screaming at the Sox fans on the way into the stadium, during the game in our section, and every section, fights breaking out in several sections.

Some of the language in our section last night made me think I was in Philadelphia.

One of the guys behind me threw a beer bottle at a Red Sox fan who stood up and was trying to get a "Let's Go Red Sox" cheer started. He was removed pretty quickly by Security.

I think Baltimore fans have grown more bitter at having their stadium taken over by Sox and Yankees fans.
It was about 40% Sox fans last night. It will be a much higher percentage of Sox fans for the weekend games at the end of May-June series.

But they really should complain less. Without the Sox and Yankees fans they may not be able to afford a team anymore...
Their average attendance this year has been very pathetic when it is anyone other than the Yankees , Sox, or Opening Day, especially considering they are doing reasonably well compared to recent O's teams.

Total season attendance - 406,828 (23,931 per game)
Total attendance for Sox-Yankees-Opening Day - 205,505 (41,101 per game)
But if you remove those 5 games from their attendance...
Total attendance for the average other 12 games is: 201,323 (16,776 per game)

*The Nationals are averaging about the same as the O's, and they are in last place, and no Sox/Yankees games.

Edited by JimRiceHOFer, 14 May 2008 - 09:25 AM.

[Pumpsie]

Just watching the game a bit via mlb.com, I also got the impression that the place was much more strident and edgy than usual and that there were less Sox fans and more O's fans than usual.

Also was shocked to see Tek still on second after the play on Ellsbury at the plate. He definitely screwed up there.

Also noticed that Cora was not getting to balls that Lugo normally does and it hurt us.

I thought that the ump had a really wide strike zone and so did Jim Palmer but Palmer also said that it was consistently wide and that the players just have to adjust. But, yes, our players tend to complain as much as any team in the league about balls and strikes. And Papi is our "lead whiner." And he's not always right. Even Ellsbury seems to be getting into the act now.

Thanks for the onsite game inspection, guys.

Hopefully, the crowd for tonight's game will be a bit more civilized.

[DJnVa]

6. I don't know how it looked on replay, but we all thought it was pretty clear that Ortiz swung. While he had a right to be upset that there was no appeal, he came off as acting like a whiny bitch, especially when he refused to leave the dugout. I suppose it's possible he didn't know he got tossed but, even after the first base umpire told him to leave he hung around for a while. Not his finest moment.

Watching the O's broadcast they thought he wasn't aware that he got tossed. It didn't seem that big of a deal--he yelled a bit then walked down the steps. As someone else said, they weren't sure he swung.

Regarding Camden, I've never had a problem with the area. In the park, sometimes the fans are a bit raucous, other times not. It's early enough in the season that they're not buried in 4th or 5th with no hope, so they're a bit louder.

[ShaneTrot]

Wasn't it last year we had a conversation along similar lines? It seems to me I remember we did the study and found that the Sox underscored their expected performance by around 40 runs given their number of baserunners. If I'm remembering all that correctly then it's very possible it won't necessarily turn around.

I am really hoping that Ellsbury at the top of the order somewhat rectifies this. He's tied for the AL lead in runs scored with Crawford and KInsler in significantly less at bats.

I bet JD Drew wants to forget about the third inning last night. He hits a frozen rope that Markakis makes a decent catch on and he hurts himself going for a ball that if he catches maybe the Sox get out of the inning without the Scott 3 run homer.

[NomarRS05]

I thought that the ump had a really wide strike zone and so did Jim Palmer but Palmer also said that it was consistently wide and that the players just have to adjust. But, yes, our players tend to complain as much as any team in the league about balls and strikes. And Papi is our "lead whiner." And he's not always right. Even Ellsbury seems to be getting into the act now.

Thanks for the onsite game inspection, guys.

Hopefully, the crowd for tonight's game will be a bit more civilized.

Youkilis also gave some unhappy looks when he was called out on strikes (two K's looking IIRC). Yes, they are coming off as whiners right now and it's not a good thing. I think part of it is that they've endured some frustrating losses of late and are wrapping up a long road trip. Papi just lost his cool last night, and to me it was more his frustration boiling over than anything.

I'll also chip in by saying the O's fans were atypically fired up and, in some cases, inappropriate last night. There was a couple right behind us that was just being belligerently drunk and annoying, screaming "siddown, fatass!!!" at Papi everytime he made an out. When Manny grounded into the double play they screamed right into my ear and I literally had to turn around and tell them to tone it down, as it's only May. It seemed like this was happening in every section based on what other Sox fans were telling me.

[biollante]

Red Sox fans better get ready for verbal abuse when the Sox lose. I don't think there is any way around it.
When you are perceived as the top dog, screams happen. It's all fun and games until Ortiz gets called a fatass.

Now the Sox just have to play like the top dog or at least a little better than the Rays. I'm getting more convinced that the wild card won't be from the East. Injuries have to be avoided.

[86spike]

That Varitek blunder gets me, too. Did anyone on either broadcast call Varitek out for that? The second I looked over and saw 'Tek still on second, I could sense the deep flyball coming. Casey ripped that ball, too. As did Pedroia after him. That was a frustrating sequence of events to watch.

The O's announcers (I think it was Palmer) noted that the throw was definitely not going to the cut-off man so Tek should have gone to 3rd. They didn't dwell on it, but they commented immediately after the play.

As for the surrounding area, we'll agree to disagree.

you took a wrong turn and ended up on strip club alley, didn't you?

[dbn]

Wasn't it last year we had a conversation along similar lines? It seems to me I remember we did the study and found that the Sox underscored their expected performance by around 40 runs given their number of baserunners. If I'm remembering all that correctly then it's very possible it won't necessarily turn around.

For what it's worth, just doing something quickly...

If you tally team (LOB + GDP + CS)/(H + BB), the AL averaged 0.649 for this "frustration ratio" in 2007. The Red Sox were exactly at this average, but led the AL in runs scored, with 22% more than the AL average and 9% more the next team.

There is a hint of an anti-correlation, though:


Of course there are better analyses that could be done, but this is all I have time for right now.

[edit: LOB numbers from this article.]

Edited by dbn, 14 May 2008 - 12:22 PM.

[exGloucester]

-----------------
It would have been far, far better if he had struck out.
-----------------

Re Manny's DP with the bases loaded, definitely yes. But in Manny's defense, the type of borderline pitches he was swinging at during that AB was the product of the ump calling such a wide zone. The one he DP'd on looked pretty well low and inside to me and the type I'm used to watching him take 9 times out of 10, but I think he was rightly concerned that that ball is strike 3 if he takes it. With many another ump behind the plate, I think that AB results in a walk and a run scored.

[Eric Van]

-----------------
It would have been far, far better if he had struck out.
-----------------

Re Manny's DP with the bases loaded, definitely yes. But in Manny's defense, the type of borderline pitches he was swinging at during that AB was the product of the ump calling such a wide zone. The one he DP'd on looked pretty well low and inside to me and the type I'm used to watching him take 9 times out of 10, but I think he was rightly concerned that that ball is strike 3 if he takes it. With many another ump behind the plate, I think that AB results in a walk and a run scored.

Pitch/fx confirms that Diaz had a huge strike zone to that side of the plate (while squeezing legitimate strikes on the first base side). I haven't looked at the data for the opposition but he was calling strikes on pitches up to 5.3" to the left while not calling 1.6" of the actual plate on the right. 3.7" larger than rulebook is very typical, but moving the whole zone 3.5" to the 3B side is bizarre. At first I thought it might be a data calibration glitch, but I checked a few pitches on video and that's what he was doing.

(I hope to get back to full umpiring reports in about a week, although they will be sporadic until late July.)