87 replies to this topic

[Crazy Puppy]

Reliever Craig Hansen has been called up from Pawtucket to take the roster vacated by Brandon Moss.

Globe

[Pumpsie]

Globe

YAY!!!

Good move. Just what is needed right now. Let's see if Hansen can take advantage of this opportunity.

[RoDaddy]

It'll be interesting to see if he takes innings from MDC, who is obviously struggling.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It'll be interesting to see if he takes innings from MDC, who is obviously struggling.

MDC has allowed 7 runs in his last 2.3 innings covering his last 6 appearances.

It's very likely he's lost the 7th inning role for good, and if Hansen shows anything at all in his latest appearance I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they sent MDC down. He's nowhere close to an effective major league pitcher right now and he's not improving in the slightest from game to game. It's incredibly frustrating to see him fail to step up again when given a chance.

[MidnightC]

MDC has allowed 7 runs in his last 2.3 innings covering his last 6 appearances.

It's very likely he's lost the 7th inning role for good, and if Hansen shows anything at all in his latest appearance I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they sent MDC down. He's nowhere close to an effective major league pitcher right now and he's not improving in the slightest from game to game. It's incredibly frustrating to see him fail to step up again when given a chance.

MDC is out of options.

I'm surprised they called up a pitcher and not a position player even with the bullpen issues (non-Oki/Pap division). Francona's going to be working with a really short bench against the Tigers.

[URI]

YAY!!!

Good move. Just what is needed right now. Let's see if Hansen can take advantage of this opportunity.

No he's not. The Red Sox now have 13 pitchers again, and one of them is currently on 10 day's rest. Three outfielders that have missed time in the last week with leg injuries, Ortiz's knee is dinged up, and now a bench that is made up of either Crisp or Ellsbury, Cash, and Lowrie.

Good for Hansen and all, but the last thing this team needs is another bullpen arm. Tito's not finding work for the ones that we have.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

More than likley, Hansen's only up until Cora is ready to come off the DL in a few days time.

[Bowlerman9]

More than likley, Hansen's only up until Cora is ready to come off the DL in a few days time.

So then we'll have 2 utility infielders and no backup outfielders. Not sure how that helps the situation with Ortiz/Crisp/Ellsbury/Drew being banged up.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

MDC is out of options.

He is? Jeez I had no idea. That really puts a crimp on their bullpen since he's struggling so badly and they're stuck with him. Not a good sign at all.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

No he's not. The Red Sox now have 13 pitchers again, and one of them is currently on 10 day's rest. Three outfielders that have missed time in the last week with leg injuries, Ortiz's knee is dinged up, and now a bench that is made up of either Crisp or Ellsbury, Cash, and Lowrie.

Good for Hansen and all, but the last thing this team needs is another bullpen arm. Tito's not finding work for the ones that we have.

I think it might be a very short term thing. Oki, Paps, and MDC have all pitched two of the last three days and most regulars have been getting rest so they are probably just thinking that adding a bullpen arm for Monday through Wednesday would help more than someboy like Thurston. Then when Cora comes back later in the week, they will ship Hansen down again. Plus they get to see a bit more of Hansen against MLB hitters and get a better sense of how ready he might be.

[URI]

I think it might be a very short term thing. Oki, Paps, and MDC have all pitched two of the last three days and most regulars have been getting rest so they are probably just thinking that adding a bullpen arm for Monday through Wednesday would help more than someboy like Thurston. Then when Cora comes back later in the week, they will ship Hansen down again. Plus they get to see a bit more of Hansen against MLB hitters and get a better sense of how ready he might be.

It might be a shortterm thing, but that's not the point. Monday through Wednesday we still have three gimpy outfielders, and DH with a bad knee. And a three man bench, which includes the backup catcher.

Send down Hansen when Cora comes back, and that doesn't still leaves us without a lot of options if someone needs to come out of a game. There are plenty of outfield options in Pawtucket that would make a lot more sense than an eighth reliever...especially when one of the seven that were already there hasn't pitched in 10 days.

[TheoShmeo]

Send down Hansen when Cora comes back, and that doesn't still leaves us without a lot of options if someone needs to come out of a game. There are plenty of outfield options in Pawtucket that would make a lot more sense than an eighth reliever...especially when one of the seven that were already there hasn't pitched in 10 days.

On the other hand, maybe it's less about the number of relievers and more about giving Tito an option he can trust in addition to Papelbon and Okajima.

As of now, who can Francona hand the ball to in a game with confidence when they are leading by a run or two in the sixth or seventh inning? None of the non-Oki/Paps pitchers have shown any degree of consistency, and maybe Hansen will get the chance to grab the role they hoped MDC would grab and hold this year. Said differently, I agree that they need help on the bench more than another arm, but I'd like to see Hansen be given the chance to stick and play a meaningful role on this team going forward.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

lurker tvc15 pointed me to this page, which indicates that MDC does have 1 option remaining. So maybe the Sox can send him down and keep Hansen up for a while.

[SoxScout]

MDC was added to the 40-man at the end of 2004 and was optioned to start 2005.... that page is wrong I believe.

11/21/04
Purchased the contracts of LHP Juan Cedeno, RHP Manny Delcarmen and RHP Luis Mendoza from Single-A Sarasota; SS Hanley Ramirez and RHP Chris Smith from Double-A Portland; RHP Anibal Sanchez from Single-A Lowell; C Kelly Shoppach from Triple-A Pawtucket; Sent RHP Jerome Gamble outright to Double-A Portland.

3/14/05
Optioned LHP Abe Alvarez and INF Alejandro Machado to Triple-A Pawtucket; Optioned RHP Chris Smith to Double-A Portland; Optioned RHP Manny Delcarmen, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Luis Mendoza and LHP Juan Cedeno to Single-A Wilmington; Re-assigned INF Kenny Perez and OF Chip Ambres to minor league camp.

http://boston.redsox...t...005&month=3

Edited by SoxScout, 04 May 2008 - 06:33 PM.

[Crazy Puppy]

lurker tvc15 pointed me to this page, which indicates that MDC does have 1 option remaining. So maybe the Sox can send him down and keep Hansen up for a while.

If someone can offer an explanation as to why Delcarmen didn't burn an option in 2005, I'd like to hear it.

3/14/05 Optioned LHP Abe Alvarez and INF Alejandro Machado to Triple-A Pawtucket; Optioned RHP Chris Smith to Double-A Portland; Optioned RHP Manny Delcarmen, RHP Anibal Sanchez, RHP Luis Mendoza and LHP Juan Cedeno to Single-A Wilmington...

RedSox.com

[Cuzittt]

BTW... Cora isn't coming back on Thursday. He would be coming back on Saturday, if all goes well in his rehab assignment.

Cora Rehab

"It's just a matter of how I feel tomorrow," he said, noting he planned on more throwing and taking ground balls at shortstop Monday and Tuesday in Detroit before joining Pawtucket for three games.

Cora said he never expected his absence to last this long but thinks it's a good thing he didn't try to force the issue.

"My elbow hurt for a long time and it [stunk]," he said. "It was longer than expected."

"We did the right thing, not only for me but for the team," he added. "I would have kicked myself in the butt if I threw a ball away and cost us a game if I tried to be a man and go out there."

The plan is for Cora to join Pawtucket on Wednesday and then be joined by Red Sox teammate Sean Casey for games Thursday and Friday. Casey, out with a right hip injury, is eligible to come off the disabled list for Sunday night's game in Minnesota.

I don't have a problem with Hansen coming up. I'm not sure if anyone really has a problem with Hansen coming up. However, with Hansen coming up, someone in the bullpen should go down (of course, no one can... they are all out of options) or DLed. I would still like to see a Chris Carter or a Jonathan Van Every up with Moss out.

[URI]

On the other hand, maybe it's less about the number of relievers and more about giving Tito an option he can trust in addition to Papelbon and Okajima.

As of now, who can Francona hand the ball to in a game with confidence when they are leading by a run or two in the sixth or seventh inning? None of the non-Oki/Paps pitchers have shown any degree of consistency, and maybe Hansen will get the chance to grab the role they hoped MDC would grab and hold this year. Said differently, I agree that they need help on the bench more than another arm, but I'd like to see Hansen be given the chance to stick and play a meaningful role on this team going forward.

So Tito doesn't want to use Aardsma, Timlin, Delcarmen, Tavarez, and Lopez in a 1 run game in the 6th or 7th is an excuse to mismanage a roster, and leave the shortest bench in the majors with 4 regulars (or semi-regulars) missing time in the last week with leg injuries?

If these guys can't do the job, then you need to get rid of them...we're only a few weeks removed from Julio Lugo playing left field, and I'm in no rush to see that again.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I heard Delcarman was blowing his nose after the game, maybe he'll come down with Hellenic Flu.

Or more likely, he'll complain of arm tightness (perhaps after he's told to complain about it) and he'll go on the DL for a bit and then get a rehab assignment and get a chance to find that stuff we all know he has

[Rough Carrigan]

He's got the stuff. He just doesn't have any command of it so he ends up throwing fastballs that are supposed to be on the outside corner to Frank Thomas that bend back over the middle of the plate and leave him remarking afterward that he doesn't know why that happened. He's got the stuff. He just doesn't know what he's doing, has no intuitive sense of it.

[E5 Yaz]

Yo-yoing Hansen this season will do only marginal good. They need to find out what they have in him; doing so in the early months of the season is the time to evaluate him. I'd like to see him get an extended chance at proving his worth, even if it means finding a trading partner for someone else.

[PedroKsBambino]

So Tito doesn't want to use Aardsma, Timlin, Delcarmen, Tavarez, and Lopez in a 1 run game in the 6th or 7th is an excuse to mismanage a roster, and leave the shortest bench in the majors with 4 regulars (or semi-regulars) missing time in the last week with leg injuries?

If these guys can't do the job, then you need to get rid of them...we're only a few weeks removed from Julio Lugo playing left field, and I'm in no rush to see that again.

The question here is whether there's ongoing value in 'owning' all of the relievers. The Sox have consistently worked very hard to keep control over the greatest number of assets they can (imo) and this is another example of that. They seem to have conclude that Aardsma, Lopez, MDC, etc have value looking forward and so they are trying to keep all of them...with the short-term cost being that while they aren't effective right now it means they have to carry a short bench in order to bring up another reliever who may be effective right now

Not sure they are right in this assessment; I'm not sure Lopez or Aardsma has real ongoing value. But I do think this is their analysis of it, and it's not very different than a lot of other roster moves they've made which are 'bad' short-term moves like this one appears to be.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 04 May 2008 - 09:40 PM.

[yecul]

So Tito doesn't want to use Aardsma, Timlin, Delcarmen, Tavarez, and Lopez in a 1 run game in the 6th or 7th is an excuse to mismanage a roster, and leave the shortest bench in the majors with 4 regulars (or semi-regulars) missing time in the last week with leg injuries?

If these guys can't do the job, then you need to get rid of them...we're only a few weeks removed from Julio Lugo playing left field, and I'm in no rush to see that again.

And here you've been arguing that the team doesn't have a reserve outfielder...

I am glad that Hansen is getting a shot. I like the idea of him being left in AAA for a while to rebuild his track record of success and confidence, but if he's pitching well then he's pitching well and I expect him to get outs anywhere when he's being effective.

But a team that has been so decimated by illness and injury shouldn't be carrying 13 pitchers.

My guess is that there will be another roster move during this series. Hansen gets them through the next game after they used a couple arms and Delcarmen shows he kinda sorta sucks balls right now. Then they fill out the bench again.

This early bad luck does expose the lack of OF depth in the system, though.

[TomRicardo]

This early bad luck does expose the lack of OF depth in the system, though.

How so? I mean we have gone 6 deep now and still have the second best record in baseball. What teams could would have done better? We still Van Every and Carter in AAA. I can see saying there is a weakness from the front office for crowding the bullpen but I fail to see how you can say there is lack of depth.

[yecul]

CF depth I guess I should say. But maybe this is more a commentary on usage than on availability. Is it that the OF they can now rely on suck so much in their eyes that a 13th pitcher is more useful? Or is it that they love having the extra arm on hand? Maybe I overstated the depth issue.

[TheoShmeo]

So Tito doesn't want to use Aardsma, Timlin, Delcarmen, Tavarez, and Lopez in a 1 run game in the 6th or 7th is an excuse to mismanage a roster, and leave the shortest bench in the majors with 4 regulars (or semi-regulars) missing time in the last week with leg injuries?

If these guys can't do the job, then you need to get rid of them...we're only a few weeks removed from Julio Lugo playing left field, and I'm in no rush to see that again.

I think those pitchers have given Tito good reason not to trust them in those kind of situations, and my hope is that Hansen gets the chance to grab that role and, if Hansen can do it, that at least one of those other relievers indeed gets sent down, traded or DFA'd. That said, I agree wholeheartedly that having 13 pitchers and an injured bench is far from optimal and, like others, I doubt they'll in fact do that for long.

[Pearl Wilson]

I agree it seems puzzling, but Tito and Theo surely know that the bench is lacking. It's easy to criticize the move, as has been demonstrated. I find it more useful to try to get inside their heads. Aside from what's already been postulated, it's also possible that:

-the move was planned before Moss went down so that Hansen would face the Detroit lineup,
-the bullpen staff is ill/banged up in ways that have not been made public, and
-the various collective bumps and bruises of Papi and the OFers are not so bad as we may imagine.

[Pumpsie]

This is a short-term move, obviously. With Papelbon and Okajima out for the game tonight, Tito doesn't have a single reliever he can trust right now and Hansen looked good in his one stint before and has been stellar at Pawtucket. Hansen might well be the closer tonight, a role that Timlin or MDC used to play before their recent troubles.

This buys them time. Maybe one game, or two or more. But they have to decide which of Timlin, MDC, Lopez or Tavarez they are going to keep and who they will let go and they need a little more time to either make a trade or evaluate the situation. If they DFA one of these guys, they may never see him again. It has to be the right choice. I think that Tito still has a little bit of trust with Aardsma right now, if it's lower leverage and he can start a clean inning. But who, in his right mind, could trust any of the other guys to deliver tonight in a clutch situation? That's the problem.

Baseball is about pitching. The Sox have a better chance of winning the next game or two with Hansen up and a short bench than vice versa. It's not an optimum situation, and Moss' surgery really throws a monkey wrench into things, but it's the best move right now. What's a Chris Carter going to do in a game where you give up 8 or 9 runs? They'll just try to play it game to game until the weekend when Cora and Casey are back.

So far this year, this has been a very tough job for both Tito and Theo and we stand at 20-13. They both get high marks from me as to how they've managed to steer this ship through the shoals so far.

EDIT: I think that tonight we'll see Matsuzaka, Aardsma and Hansen, with Lopez in for a batter or two perhaps. If Mats struggles, then it's Tavarez time. I think that Tito has zero confidence right now with either Timlin or MDC, and that's perfectly reasonable.

EDIT2: Aren't you guys glad we didn't trade Coco Crisp for prospects over the offseason? Imagine the current situation without him.

Edited by Pumpsie, 05 May 2008 - 07:08 AM.

[URI]

Baseball is about pitching. The Sox have a better chance of winning the next game or two with Hansen up and a short bench than vice versa. It's not an optimum situation, and Moss' surgery really throws a monkey wrench into things, but it's the best move right now. What's a Chris Carter going to do in a game where you give up 8 or 9 runs? They'll just try to play it game to game until the weekend when Cora and Casey are back.

No, it's not the best move right now. We have 13 pitchers, and four regulars that have missed time in the last week with leg injuries. I understand it's a short term move, but it's not the best move for the team. I agree it's the best move for the bullpen, and it's the best move for Hansen, but it's not the best move for the Boston Red Sox.

And to answer you question (because baseball is not about pitching), Chris Carter is going to help you score 9-10 runs in a game where you give up 8-9.

[Rough Carrigan]

And not to nitpick, but was that one outing Hansen had really good? He gave up a home run to Kotchman.

[Pumpsie]

No, it's not the best move right now. We have 13 pitchers, and four regulars that have missed time in the last week with leg injuries. I understand it's a short term move, but it's not the best move for the team. I agree it's the best move for the bullpen, and it's the best move for Hansen, but it's not the best move for the Boston Red Sox.

And to answer you question (because baseball is not about pitching), Chris Carter is going to help you score 9-10 runs in a game where you give up 8-9.

Boy, I couldn't disagree more.

Baseball IS about pitching AND this is the best move they could make right now. Having Chris Carter on the bench isn't going to be a game-changer, especially tonight. Having Hansen available could be huge because he's probably your closer. Let's see...bench player...or closer...who's more valuable? Again, remember, this is a very temporary move that will be followed by several others to make it through this week. The Sox will be back to 12 pitchers, one way or another, pretty soon.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't think Carter is a realistic option. He has no defensive value and hasn't hit a lick in Pawtucket this year or last (273 / 328 / 373 this year). Van Every probably should have gotten the call, but for a few days I guess the organization doesn't see the need. It's not ideal, but you can always plug Lugo or Youks into the OF and use Lowrie at SS or 3B in an emergency. If something really bad happens, Van Every isn't that far away.

[URI]

Baseball IS about pitching AND this is the best move they could make right now. Having Chris Carter on the bench isn't going to be a game-changer, especially tonight. Having Hansen available could be huge because he's probably your closer. Let's see...bench player...or closer...who's more valuable? Again, remember, this is a very temporary move that will be followed by several others to make it through this week. The Sox will be back to 12 pitchers, one way or another, pretty soon.

Baseball has always been about balance (not pitching...pitching is probably only 35-40% of the game, depending on how much you think fielding is worth, unless you think Toronto and Minnesota should have been playoff teams last year.), and if JD Drew pops a hamstring rounding first, and Ortiz can't go yet...

Ignore that at your peril.

Chris Carter (or Van Every or whatever) is not going to be a game changer. Neither is Craig Hansen, or Javier Lopez, or David Aardsma or whatever. But that's not the point. The point is now we have 13 pitchers on staff, with 7 likely available to pitch. That is overkill, especially since Tavarez hasn't pitched in 10 days. If he's hurt, than DL him, call up Hansen, and everyone is happy. If Tito won't use him, why have him around?

There is obvioulsy more here that we don't know, but this is a foolish move (based on the information we currently have) when you consider the walking MASH unit that our offense has been this year. People in this thread are mentioning the series of moves that are coming to bring more balance to the team, but the only one with options is Hansen.

So we bring up Hansen to see if he can grab a set up role, but then send him down again when Casey/Cora become available? To what end? There is no way that Hansen can prove himself more vaulable than Aardsma (for example) in a week if he's not now.

[Pumpsie]

You're a baseball fan and you think that pitching is 35-40% of the game? I don't think there's a manager in baseball who would agree with you. Ask Ron Washington, for example. Or ask John Maddon who finally has a bullpen this year.

In any case, the Hansen move is the best move for tonight's game. I don't see how that can be argued any differently. If Carter or Van Every were on the team they might not even see an atbat. Hansen will pitch tonight if Matuszaka can't go the distance, which means there's a 90% chance he'll pitch. After the game, they'll reassess the situation and Hansen may indeed be sent back down and Van Every brought up. Maybe Papi is ready to go tonight. We don't know. But I'm glad that Tito and Theo agree with me and not you. I feel better about tonight's game with Hansen in the pen.

[URI]

You're a baseball fan and you think that pitching is 35-40% of the game?

You're a baseball fan and you don't agree? It's easy ~50% of the game is run scoring, the other is run prevention. Run prevention is pitching and fielding. Seems pretty simple. 2007 Blue Jays and Twins looked great in the playoffs though.

I'm glad you feel good about Craig Hansen though.

[Pumpsie]

I knew you were probably thinking 50/50 offense/defense. But baseball is a unique game in many ways, and I think that this is one of them. I think that the 50/50 rule certainly holds in football, basketball and hockey. But baseball is the only team sport that begins with the ball in the defender's hands. It all starts with the pitcher and a pitcher has a greater influence on a baseball game then any single player in any sport. So, I think baseball defies the 50/50 rule.

[URI]

I knew you were probably thinking 50/50 offense/defense. But baseball is a unique game in many ways, and I think that this is one of them. I think that the 50/50 rule certainly holds in football, basketball and hockey. But baseball is the only team sport that begins with the ball in the defender's hands. It all starts with the pitcher and a pitcher has a greater influence on a baseball game then any single player in any sport. So, I think baseball defies the 50/50 rule.

You're right. A run surrendered by the defense is worth .45 runs on offense.

[Pumpsie]

You're right. A run surrendered by the defense is worth .45 runs on offense.

No, no, YOU'RE right, especially when one recalls that old baseball truism "you never have enough hitting."

EDIT: Oh, and that other saying "good hitting always beats good pitching." Baseball is different than other sports.

Edited by Pumpsie, 05 May 2008 - 11:02 AM.

[ScotianSox]

Nevermind.

Edited by ScotianSox, 05 May 2008 - 11:11 AM.

[mt8thsw9th]

No, no, YOU'RE right, especially when one recalls that old baseball truism "you never have enough hitting."

EDIT: Oh, and that other saying "good hitting always beats good pitching." Baseball is different than other sports.

You mean truisms like "you have to have a fast guy at the top of the lineup"? Those weren't meant to be challenged, and are rarely disproved? I disagree wholeheartedly.

[MannysDestination]

No, no, YOU'RE right, especially when one recalls that old baseball truism "you never have enough hitting."

EDIT: Oh, and that other saying "good hitting always beats good pitching." Baseball is different than other sports.

Instead of throwing around cliches, maybe it'd be better to think about this intuitively.

Scotian brought up the pythag expected wins, which is a good way to look at this from the long-run perspective (long-run being a season).

(RS^2)/ (RS^2 + RA^2)

Meaning that the more runs you score vs. the runs you allow, the more likely you are to win games. This, to me, shows a relatively equal breakdown of runs scored vs. runs allowed.

Now, let's suppose that a crude formula for 'winning' in baseball is:

offense + pitching defense + fielding defense = 100% of the probability of winning a game. Meaning the breakdown of 'contribution to winning' must equal 1.

If pitching = .5, or 50%, then you're saying that offense + fielding = .5, or 50%. Looking at the pythag equation.... this doesn't make sense to me. It seems like runs scored is at least as important as runs allowed. And since runs allowed is pitching defense + fielding defense, it's difficult to make the case that pitching is more important in the long run than offense.

However, in the short run, pitching can certainly be more important. I believe I read something by Tango or THT about this, but unfortunately don't have the time on my lunch break to do an extensive google search.

[yecul]

No, no, YOU'RE right, especially when one recalls that old baseball truism "you never have enough hitting."

EDIT: Oh, and that other saying "good hitting always beats good pitching." Baseball is different than other sports.

All the flowers of tomorrow are in the seeds of yesterday.

American as apple pie.

An apple a day keeps the doctor away.

An apple never falls far from the tree.

As clear as mud.

As delicate as a flower.

As much use as a yard of pump water.

As welcome as a skunk at a lawn party.

Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Can't tell his ass from a hole in the ground.

Caught between a rock and a hard place.

Closing the barn door after the horse escapes.

A dedicated gardener dwells within.

Do I look like a turnip that just fell off the turnip truck.

Dropped like a hot potato.

Easy as falling off a log.

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes.

Fell out of the ugly tree and hit every branch on the way down.

For thee the earth puts forth sweet flowers.

Garden folks have the sunniest smiles.

a good year is determined by its spring

The grass is always greener on the other side.

He can't see the forest for the trees.

If dumb were dirt, he would be about an acre.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.

Lie down with dogs and wake up with fleas.

A little garden in which to walk, and immensity in which to dream.

May all your weeds be wildflowers.

The old gray mare just ain't what she used to be.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.

The sharper is the berry, the sweeter is the wine.

Sow much, reap much; sow little, reap little.

The stronger the breeze the stronger the trees.

The way to a man's heart is through his stomach.

Worry often gives a small thing a big shadow.

[Vermonter At Large]

Wow, what a bunch of whiny bitches ... you'd think the team is 10 games out of first ...

There are, of course, more complex dynamics that rule the game that transcend the 50/50 rule, or the 50/35/15 rule, or the pythag, etc. When the starting pitchers are giving up the ghost early, there is more work for the pen, but when they are pitching very well the pen gets rusty because guys aren't being used. So there is an optimum amount of work that a bullpen should get that is rarely ever met. The Sox went through a period in early April where the starters were very inconsistent and the bullpen was overtaxed, then they went through the opposite in late April, where the starting pitching was great and the pen was underutilized.

The dynamic between the pitching and hitting is also complex. If the team is far ahead, or far behind, you can give guys like MDC and Timlin some low-leverage innings to keep them fresh and work the kinks out.

The pen may or may not work itself out in time, but really, the offense needs to be working well and the starters need to be as consistent as possible to allow for some regular usage to see what works. Right now the pen is a mess, and honestly, even Paps and Okie have been getting hit more often than one would like or expect. To some degree, though, irregular usage is certainly contributing to the overall suckiness.

On the roster management side, nobody even mentioned what happens when Casey comes off the DL. He has no utility value at all, so the team will absolutely be forced back to 12 pitchers at a maximum, since it requires four bench players for sure. I'm sure this means that Lowry goes back to Pawtucket unless the team decides to go to 11 pitchers (unless someone else gets DL'd).

[URI]

No, no, YOU'RE right, especially when one recalls that old baseball truism "you never have enough hitting."

EDIT: Oh, and that other saying "good hitting always beats good pitching." Baseball is different than other sports.

Oh...I thought we were discussing roster moves in an intellegent way, and not spouting old baseball cliches because it fits your argument.

[Rudy Pemberton]

On the roster management side, nobody even mentioned what happens when Casey comes off the DL. He has no utility value at all, so the team will absolutely be forced back to 12 pitchers at a maximum, since it requires four bench players for sure. I'm sure this means that Lowry goes back to Pawtucket unless the team decides to go to 11 pitchers (unless someone else gets DL'd).

I would expect that Casey and Cora replace Hansen and Lowrie.

[ScotianSox]

Instead of throwing around cliches, maybe it'd be better to think about this intuitively.

Scotian brought up the pythag expected wins, which is a good way to look at this from the long-run perspective (long-run being a season).

(RS^2)/ (RS^2 + RA^2)

Meaning that the more runs you score vs. the runs you allow, the more likely you are to win games. This, to me, shows a relatively equal breakdown of runs scored vs. runs allowed.

Since I brought this up the first time and then kind of hid, let's discuss. This is a bit of a hi-jack.

Lets start with last year's Red Sox - they scored 867 runs and allowed 657 runs for a pythag record of 101.12 wins (I know there is no such thing as a part win but we are talking about theoretical wins.

To improve their pythag record by 1 win they could have either:

A) scored 12.6 more runs
B) allowed 9.4 fewer runs.

So this tells me that a marginal run saved last year was worth 1.34 times a marginal run scored. I admit that this doesn't make intuitive sense but if we agree that pythag is a decent model we have to be able to explain this result.

Edited by ScotianSox, 05 May 2008 - 11:49 AM.

[TheoShmeo]

If we were discussing a move that was set in stone, or was even set in sand that would have to last more than a few games, then I'd understand taking the position that having a short offensive bench is too risky. Similarly, if the Sox were facing a one-game playoff I'd understand it. But that's not true in that if the Sox find themselves really up against the wall as a result of having 13 pitchers and some injured guys on the bench, they can always adjust on the fly.

As VAL wrote, the pen, other than in the form of Oki (whose inherited runs scored numbers are mounting) and Paps, is a mess right now. Tito needs to find reliable bridges to Oki and Paps, and having Hansen up now is probably another attempt to find one.*

It's true that the Sox could have achieved that objective by getting rid of one of the other bullpen arms, but Val's point about getting MDC and Timlin work in lower leverage situations is a good one, and it applies to the other guys in the pen, as well.

And more to the point, if the Sox have to stick Lugo out in the OF for a game or two, I don't see that as more likely to lead to losses, at least in the long-term, than not having better bridge options than they currently have.

* Are there other avenues for that? Masterson? Or is that too short-term focused and likely to retard his development? One of the exisitng starters if and when Colon can join the rotation? Or Colon himself? Other arms in the minors?

Edited by TheoShmeo, 05 May 2008 - 11:49 AM.

[ToxicSmed]

URI, I know that you are concerned about the outfielders being hurt. My thought, however, is that if this really is a short-term thing there isn't a lot of risk. While the Sox are only carrying one backup OF Youkilis can play LF if needed. The odds of even two OFs having to step out of a single game are slim and if someone is going to be unavailable I am certain that Van Every will be called up (the only remaining OF on the 40-man).

I don't see what Van Every adds to the team right now unless someone becomes unavailable, and I agree with others that it would be nice to know what we have with Hansen.

I just want to clarify, do you think that having to rely on Youkilis as the 5th OF is too dangerous or do you think that one of the four current outfielders should be unavailable right now?

[yecul]

Some are arguing that, given the recent use of the pen, Hansen can be used as a late inning setup man for a game or two until Papelbon/Okajima become available again.

Great, so the argument now is that Hansen is so good that he instantly steps in as a top 3-4 man in the pen behind only two of the best relievers in the game.

This exemplifies URI's point. As important as pitching may be the team is currently carrying a bunch of bad ones. They could jettison one of the shitty ones that Hansen is better than and add on to the bench. Francona doesn't use 12 pitchers let alone 13, so this is negligible on the all important pitching front.

[ToxicSmed]

Great, so the argument now is that Hansen is so good that he instantly steps in as a top 3-4 man in the pen behind only two of the best relievers in the game.

This exemplifies URI's point. As important as pitching may be the team is currently carrying a bunch of bad ones. They could jettison one of the shitty ones that Hansen is better than and add on to the bench. Francona doesn't use 12 pitchers let alone 13, so this is negligible on the all important pitching front.

The point is that if Hansen is only coming up for 1-3 days to see what he can do, you might as well keep your other pitchers in case he looks overmatched. If Hansen looks good you can keep him and jettison a bad reliever when you actually need a 5th OF. If he looks bad you can send him back to the minors instead.

The point is that a 5th outfielder is good to have long-term but isn't something that's likely to cause a huge problem to go without for a few days.

Edit: The guys he's slotting in front of (for a one night trial, for now) are Tavarez, Timlin, MDC, Aardsma and Lopez. Portraying it like he's just behind "two of the best relievers in the game" is a bit disingenuous. I know that you want to make your point but that doesn't really convince anyone who can form their own thoughts.

Edited by ToxicSmed, 05 May 2008 - 12:03 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think the issue (or problem) right now is that it isn't really clear which relievers should go.

Everyone wants Timlin and Lopez released. Many now seem to think MDC should be sent down. A case could certainly be made for dumping Tavarez or Aardsma. Corey and Snyder have already come and gone.

That certainly suggests that the team needs to get a good look at as many relievers as possible, and while Hansen may only be up for a few days- it could be longer based on circumstances he can control (his performance) and those he can't.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Hansen was brought into a tight game in the 7th inning of a game tonight, I don't see Van Evey or Carter playing in any kind of important situation. Now, folks say the team should just dump a pitcher to get rid of Hansen...but who? Would you give up Aardsma just to have Van Evey on hand, for example?