So you are predicting Santana will have a 2.00 ERA with 220 IP this year? Or are you saying that Oswalt who never had a major injury will age gracefully or at least as gracefully as Santana? Santana is not twice as good as Oswalt now. We are talking a usual difference of between 70 - 80 VORP and 65 - 75 VORP. Oswalt is a very good pitcher, he has had a WARP3 of 9.1, 8.7, 8.0. or about 7.5 wins better than a replacement pitcher the last three seasons. Santana has had 8.8. 9.6, 8.6 or about 7.6 wins better than a replacement pitcher. So unless Santana finds a way to double his production, no he is not twice as value and it is not even close.
I'm not following this.
First off, using your numbers, how is Santana's 3 year average of about 9 WARP3 only .1 wins better than Oswalt's 3 year average of 8.6? He's cranking out an extra .4 a year using your own numbers here, isn't he?
But second, don't you have the wrong numbers?
When I check Santana's BP card, I see his last three WARP3s at 9.6, 11.1, and 9.4 -- and the three year cut off avoids Santana's previous 12.3 WARP3 season.
Oswalt is at 9.1, 8.7, and 8.0 WARP3, and his fourth year previous is 8.2, which is good, but still 4 behind Santana.
Santana's 3 year WARP3 average is 10.03 (and his four year average is 10.6 WARP3)
Oswalt's 3 year WARP3 average is 8.6 (and his four year average is 8.5 WARP3).
Third, someone doesn't have to have twice the numbers in order to produce twice the value. It's a pretty obvious point when you think about the talent distribution in baseball.
From where I sit, Santana is two years younger, has a much better strikeout record in a harder league, and averages almost 2 WARP3 per year more than Oswalt. I'd much rather have his contract than Oswalt's. Oswalt will be good, but he's going to suffer a lot translating to the AL. The trend in his strikeout record is particularly worrying. Santana's k-rate held steady or rose in his age 26-28 seasons; Oswalt's has consistently declined.
(2008 is meaningless at this point, but fangraphs doesn't seem to have a way to select year ranges.)
Have I missed something? It's possible -- I have pneumonia.
Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 25 April 2008 - 08:08 AM.