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It's November 2008, Let's Bring Back Pedro


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#1 jose melendez


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:03 PM

Well hell, come this autumn, the contract of the greatest right handed pitcher ever to strap on a pair of spikes will be up. That's right, Pedro Cy Koufax Smokey Martinez's contract will be up.

Sure, he's been hurt... a lot... for the past two years, but presuming he bounces back from this injury and shows that his shoulder isn't shot, would you take a chance on him?

What would it take? How about 2 years $8 million, if he wins 15 games in year one, he is vested for $15 million for two years, if he wins 20 (really, really unlikely) he's vested for $17 million?

He had an ERa last year of 2.57 with a K/BB of 32/7 and an ERA+ of 166.

You know you want to. At the very least it's not wackier than what they gave G38 this year, and I'd muich rather take a chance on Pedro next year than on Schill.

#2 Quintanariffic

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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:05 PM

That's dirty.


And I like it.

#3 xjack


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:05 PM

This is a great topic for November 2008.

#4 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:06 PM

You know, I was thinking about this exact thing the other day. Weird.

You make valid points - Schilling will be gone (likely) and very possibly Wakefield as well. Masterson is a possibility (I guess) for the 5th spot, and Sabathia may (probably) be a free agent. But when Pedro was healthy last year, he was good. If he can prove himself healthy again this year, he would be VERY interesting to see in a Sox uniform again.

PS - they can't use wins. But if they use starts - like he starts 28 games and 32 games or something like that his incentives kick in.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 23 April 2008 - 10:06 PM.


#5 PedroisGod

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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:06 PM

As much as I'd absolutely love this scenario, if he were to be at all ineffective in the AL, it would hurt to watch knowing what he used to be.

I'm fully content with Pedro's last game with the Red Sox being 7 shutout innings in the World Series. I'd like to see him finish his career gracefully with the Mets.

#6 LahoudOrBillyC


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:09 PM

Pass.

Pedro was great and all (not the greatest because he could not throw many innings), but for some reason I don't see Pedro going out gracefully. I hope I am wrong, but I think the very competitiveness that made him the great pitcher that he was, that necessary prickishness, will make him a real SOB in his fading years.

Again, I hope I am wrong.

#7 JayMags71


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:10 PM

I think it's more important to find out what we have in Buchholz and Lester, rather than try and cling to the past. I thnk bringing back Pedro retards any rebuilding process.

Edited by JayMags71, 23 April 2008 - 10:10 PM.


#8 jose melendez


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:20 PM

I think it's more important to find out what we have in Buchholz and Lester, rather than try and cling to the past. I thnk bringing back Pedro retards any rebuilding process.


Isn't the counter to that that we're not in a rebuilding process?

The rotation next year as currently stands will likely be Beckett, Dice, Buchholz, Lester and Wakefield.

Pedro if semi healthy pushing Lester or Wake to the sixth starter role feels pretty good to me.

#9 Bowlerman9


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:25 PM

What would it take? How about 2 years $8 million, if he wins 15 games in year one, he is vested for $15 million for two years, if he wins 20 (really, really unlikely) he's vested for $17 million?

He had an ERa last year of 2.57 with a K/BB of 32/7 and an ERA+ of 166.

You know you want to. At the very least it's not wackier than what they gave G38 this year, and I'd muich rather take a chance on Pedro next year than on Schill.


Schilling's 2007: 151 innings. Received 1 year deal.

Pedro's 2007: numbers quoted above, 28 innings. This year, 3.1 innings and then hurt. And a two year deal is not wackier than what they gave Schilling this year?

Maybe if Pedro comes back in 2 weeks and ends up making 24-25 starts, then he is worth a 1 or 2 year deal. But if he throws another 28 innings this year, is signing him at all worth the risk?

Edited by Bowlerman9, 23 April 2008 - 10:25 PM.


#10 MidnightC

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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:25 PM

No.

Pedro's legacy here is secure as it stands. Why risk diminishing everything that he is and was to the franchise by bringing him back when he's clearly on the downslope of his career and carries such a large injury flag? I'd rather remember his Red Sox career as it was rather than possibly endure watching him get smacked around by AL lineups or going on and off the DL. (It's bad enough watching this happen when he's in a Mets uniform.) Leave it be.

Edited by MidnightC, 23 April 2008 - 10:26 PM.


#11 jose melendez


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:29 PM

No.

Pedro's legacy here is secure as it stands. Why risk diminishing everything that he is and was to the franchise by bringing him back when he's clearly on the downslope of his career and carries such a large injury flag?


The why would be if he is the best person to help the team. Maybe my scenario is way too generous, but isn't there some scenario that would make sense?

While we shouldn't bring him back strictly out of sentimentality, it's just as silly not to bring him back out of sentimentality.

#12 BGrif21125

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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:31 PM

It'll never happen. Well, you never say never, but it's an extremely slim possibility.

The injuries over the past few years have been frustrating, but by all accounts Pedro has been very happy with the Mets. If he comes back this year and proves that he still has it, then I'll be surprised if he's pitching for anyone besides the Mets in 2009.

The Mets allow him to pitch in the weaker NL, for a talented big-spending team that is a contender at the very least, where he can still experience the intensity of a big market without having to live up to the expectations of his "former self", etc.

I just don't see it happening.

#13 Cuzittt


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Posted 23 April 2008 - 10:35 PM

I really don't think there is any way to really have a discussion of this now. The feasibility of bringing Pedro back has EVERYTHING to do with what happens THIS season. Is Pedro going to be healthy? Who else is on the Free Agency Market? Is Masterson/Bowden ready to make the leap? Is Pauley an option?

Right now... the discussion is going to tend towards sentimentality (on bringing him back) or the fact that he hasn't pitched 50 innings in the past year+ (on not bringing him back). What else is there to really say?

#14 reggiecleveland


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 12:16 AM

I wonder how he would do a releiver. He always seemed dynamite to begin games. I think it was SI wo thought he would return to Boston and close. I wonder if he would take on a Jameisan ace roll in Boston?

#15 exGloucester

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:07 AM

-----------------------
Pedro if semi healthy pushing Lester or Wake to the sixth starter role feels pretty good to me.
-----------------------

The semi-healthy is a big if, but if he can get guys out, why not? The legacy thing doesnt matter to me, that's already in the bank. However, if Pedro can't do much this year with the Mets, I suspect he'll retire instead.

#16 RingoOSU


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:10 AM

I think Pedro has made the transition into being a pitcher who uses his brain to outwit batters since his velocity isn't what it used to be. I don't think many closers fit that kind of pitcher.

#17 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:13 AM

I think Pedro has made the transition into being a pitcher who uses his brain to outwit batters since his velocity isn't what it used to be. I don't think many closers fit that kind of pitcher.

Other than Keith Foulke, Todd Jones, and Joe Borowski (hey, that's a nice mix of guys!), this is true.

#18 PedroisGod

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:22 AM

Other than Keith Foulke, Todd Jones, and Joe Borowski (hey, that's a nice mix of guys!), this is true.


Two of them blow, and one isn't a closer anymore. A better response would have been Trevor Hoffman.

Edited by PedroisGod, 24 April 2008 - 09:23 AM.


#19 NomarRS05

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:23 AM

How about we do this: let's have Pedro come rolling onto the field on a parade float with Mike Timlin on opening day next season. They'll wave to the crowd and get 10 minute standing ovations for everything they did for the Red Sox in the past.

Other than that, I have little interest in seeing him set foot in Fenway next season considering the injury risk he presents. I doubt he can be relied upon to make any appearances in September and October this late in his career. It's also been a while since he's had to pitch in the AL.

Let's see how he looks once he returns this season before we get too deep into this discussion.

#20 Paul M


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:11 AM

My take is neither side really wants to re-visit this and I say this as one of his biggest fans, I'd rather we move on. A starter that provides innings is a bigger issue. I never thought I'd say this but Derek Lowe probably fits the profile of what we need more than an oft-injured former face of the franchise. I think Pedro is one of the most prideful players I've ever witnessed and coming back just doesn't seem to make sense. I also think the American League is a tough place for a guy with his skill-set. I also remember him struggling to get loose and pitch well in the beginning of games after 2000. I don't see him ever being a reliever again.

#21 jose melendez


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:15 AM

I completely agree that relieving is out. In 2004 anyway (I haven't followed him closely enough since) some ridiculous percentage of his earned runs came in the first. I also agree that if Pedro is not healthy for most of this season he will retire. He's often talked about how much pitching hurts and imagined his own retirement.

DLowe is a pretty interesting idea too, who might be a good fit. Vetran groundball pitcher going to a team with very good infield D and a short stop with great range (assuming Lugo's still around)?

#22 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:18 AM

If he ends up 2008 healthy, and he'd take a Wellsian type contract ($6 million base, $1 million more for every 5 starts, $1 million more for every 40 innings pitched, could end up with $17 million if he gets 30 starts & 200 innings), I see no reason not to bring him back.

They haven't given out his number, have they?

#23 jacklamabe65


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:19 AM

He is in the twilight of his career. :(

#24 satyadaimoku


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:39 AM

You know, I was thinking about this exact thing the other day. Weird.

You know, I've been thinking about this exact thing since... December 2004. Bring him back. I seriously doubt he wants to stay in New York - he needs a change of scenery badly. And when he's been healthy, he's been good. The Sox have some of the best training and recovery staff in the league. If we can get him right, he still could be a top of the rotation starter, for a tiny fraction of the usual cost, and if its Boston, I bet his enthusiasm will help.

#25 Grubbery

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:45 AM

Pass.

Pedro was great and all (not the greatest because he could not throw many innings), but for some reason I don't see Pedro going out gracefully. I hope I am wrong, but I think the very competitiveness that made him the great pitcher that he was, that necessary prickishness, will make him a real SOB in his fading years.

Again, I hope I am wrong.



Not to derail things, but I'm often surprised by the implication that Pedro wasn't durable (which perhaps isn't what you're really saying, so forgive me).

In 13 full MLB regular seasons as a starter (he was a reliever until he went to Montreal), Pedro pitched:

180 + innings 10 times
190 + innings 9 times
216 + innings 7 times (not including 199.3 innings in 2002)
Had career high 241.3 innings in 1997 (not astronomical, but very respectable).

If you factor in playoff series, he has 8 seasons over 200. In 2003, he pitched 14 postseason innings (one too many, sadly) putting him at 200 innings exactly.

Given his era, I don't think we can really call him a short innings pitcher by any stretch. I think sometimes our memory of Pedro's durability is skewed based on his time with the Mets, his body type, and the fact that the Sox nursed him through his last couple of years carefully (though he still pitched 200 + innings in 2003 and 2004, including playoffs, and his last season pitched 244 innings, including post-season).

Mind you, I'm not suggesting he'd ever pitch 200 innings again (extremely doubtful), or even match his Met-high 132 from 2005. Personally, I think he's essentially done. Bringing him back as a feel-good story wouldn't bother me, but betting he'd be able to meaningfully contribute to this team is doubtful.

#26 Paul M


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:49 AM

I think LoBC's point is amongst the greatest of all-time he's discounting Pedro's rate stats like ERA+ in favor of more innings like what Koufax provided. Compared to his peers, from 1997-2002 I doubt Pedro's production in terms of innings was that much less.

#27 tims4wins


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:52 AM

I completely agree that relieving is out. In 2004 anyway (I haven't followed him closely enough since) some ridiculous percentage of his earned runs came in the first.

Since he has left the Sox, he has given up 152 runs, 39 of which have come in the first. So more than a quarter of the runs he has given up have come in the first, which is an awfully high percentage, and corroborates Jose's theory.

#28 twothousandone

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 10:53 AM

Pass.

Pedro was great and all (not the greatest because he could not throw many innings), but for some reason I don't see Pedro going out gracefully. I hope I am wrong, but I think the very competitiveness that made him the great pitcher that he was, that necessary prickishness, will make him a real SOB in his fading years.

Again, I hope I am wrong.


I think Steve Carlton may be one comparison for the scenario you suggest. 11-29 in his last three seasons, with Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Indians, Twins. ERA above 5. And he was already considered a prick, but maybe for silly sportswriter reasons.

#29 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 11:03 AM

Just comparing Koufax and Pedro is pretty interesting, and impossible to decide.

In '65, Koufax threw 336 innings at a 2.04 ERA. Fantastic for sure, but the league ERA was only 3.26. NL batters hit 249 / 311 / 374.

The Dodgers had three starters who threw 287+ innings. Hell, the #10 guy in the league had 264 IP.

Compare that to Pedro in '00. He threw 217 IP at a 1.74 ERA. The league ERA was 5.07. AL batters hit 276 / 349 / 443 that year.

You could double Pedro's ERA...and he still would have led the league. His ERA was 2.13 better than The #2 guy. Koufax ERA was 0.09 ahead of Marichal. 5 guys had ERA's of 2.60 or better in the NL that year.

I think it's really hard to penalize Pedro for not throwing more innings; with the 5-man rotation pitchers were getting 7-8 less starts, but the biggest factor is really the level of talent they were facing.

Could Koufax possibly throw 336 innings against batters the caliber of what Pedro was facing? FWIW, Pedro has thrown 300+ innings than Koufax over his career. Really can't answer these questions, it's the great debate...but I think Koufax has as much working for and against him as Pedro does.

You could throw Clemens into the mix, but a lot going on there too....

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 24 April 2008 - 11:07 AM.


#30 LahoudOrBillyC


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 11:25 AM

Listen, I didn't mean to get the thread off its tracks. I love Pedro as a pitcher, I just think using rate stats only to make the case that he was the greatest pitcher of all time (which was the claim) does not properly credit the guys who could take the ball a few more times a year and complete games. I didn't say it made him worse, I just said innings have to be part of the equation. The reason Grady Little fucked up in 2003 is that he didn't know what everyone else knew: Pedro could not close out that game. That is part of who he was. 30 starts a year, 7 innings a start, 210 innings. As long as you understand that limitation, he's the best there was.

Edited by LahoudOrBillyC, 24 April 2008 - 11:26 AM.


#31 Average Reds


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Posted 24 April 2008 - 11:32 AM

I think Steve Carlton may be one comparison for the scenario you suggest. 11-29 in his last three seasons, with Phillies, Giants, White Sox, Indians, Twins. ERA above 5. And he was already considered a prick, but maybe for silly sportswriter reasons.


I think this is a great analogy in terms of how their careers might end.

Carlton made the transition that Pedro is in the middle of right now - from power to finesse pitcher - so successfuly that his competitive nature deluded him into thinking he could be a winning pitcher for as long as he wanted, since he was in great shape. For those who grew up watching him in his prime, the last few years you highlight were very painful to witness.

As an aside, Carlton was considered a prick because he was, in fact, a prick. But this was not widely known at the time.

#32 Grubbery

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 01:59 PM

Mind you, I'm not suggesting he'd ever pitch 200 innings again (extremely doubtful), or even match his Met-high 132 from 2005. Personally, I think he's essentially done. Bringing him back as a feel-good story wouldn't bother me, but betting he'd be able to meaningfully contribute to this team is doubtful.



Lurker donutogre has corrected me, noting that Pedro's Met's high was identical to his 2004 IP of 217. 132 was his 2006 IP.

#33 JimD

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Posted 24 April 2008 - 02:38 PM

Sorry, but there is no chance that a proud man like Pedro will come back to Boston and accept the kind of low-dollar, team-friendly contract that ownership would insist on.