238 replies to this topic

[JimEdSF]

I'm with SS here. If the Sox thought Lowrie could manage the position defensively at the MLB level, he'd have been inserted fulltime already. We're stuck with Lugo through the year, unless the Sox are actively shopping him with the marketing angle that Boston is too tough for him mentally, and he'll shine in a small market atmosphere.

Here's the crushing thing, though. The Sox think Lugo's defense is so bad that they insert Cora, a gargoyle, into the position in the late innings. But they apparently think Lowrie's defense is worse at the position than Lugo's.

That leaves us with either two great offensive 2Bs, needing only one, or Lowrie blocked by Lowell and his contract. If Street is on the market, don't be surprised to see Lowrie at 3B for the As soon. /bitter

[jschip1]

I'm with SS here. If the Sox thought Lowrie could manage the position defensively at the MLB level, he'd have been inserted fulltime already.

I don't think that is true. It is simply that Lugo and Cora are veterans and Lugo is getting paid a lot of money. Professional scouts are coming around to the idea of Lowrie being an adequate defensive SS with an above average bat.

I just can't see anybody taking Lugo. He has guaranteed money through the 2010 season at $9 million per and an option that vests in 2011 for another $9 milliion based on PA's, which he is on pace to get. This is way more money than Renteria was owed when the Sox subsidized his contract to get him off the team, for a much worse player than Renteria was at the time. I'd love to see Lowrie get a shot, but I just don't see how it gets done. My feeling is Lowrie gets moved eventually and we deal with Lugo through at least next year, if not longer.

[sancap14]

I don't think that is true. It is simply that Lugo and Cora are veterans and Lugo is getting paid a lot of money. Professional scouts are coming around to the idea of Lowrie being an adequate defensive SS with an above average bat.

I just can't see anybody taking Lugo. He has guaranteed money through the 2010 season at $9 million per and an option that vests in 2011 for another $9 milliion based on PA's, which he is on pace to get. This is way more money than Renteria was owed when the Sox subsidized his contract to get him off the team, for a much worse player than Renteria was at the time. I'd love to see Lowrie get a shot, but I just don't see how it gets done. My feeling is Lowrie gets moved eventually and we deal with Lugo through at least next year, if not longer.

I just threw up all over my keyboard. And you just ruined my night. Thanks dude.

[dewystoetap]

I think Lowrie makes the club next year and splits time with Lugo and fills in at 2b and 3b. While taking over full time in 2010. I can see the sox eating the rest of the contract, but not until after 09.....

[teejay1324]

He has an option year? That's horrible. However, it then makes even more sense to platoon him with Lowrie now and '09 and then dump him because then maybe he won't get the at bats to trigger it?? Whats the magic number of PAs and in what season to trigger the option? Anyone know?

That makes him even harder to trade because his new team could be looking at 09-11, three seasons with this guy!

Any chance he's a heavy drinker like Vin Baker and they can viod his contract early?

[JulE6]

Any chance he's a heavy drinker like Vin Baker and they can viod his contract early?

no but if we can pay off his wife to say something we may be in business

all kidding aside, i find it really hard to believe the sox are going to be able to rid themselves of E6 himself til after the 09 season with his contract

[DaftPunkFan37]

He has an option year? That's horrible. However, it then makes even more sense to platoon him with Lowrie now and '09 and then dump him because then maybe he won't get the at bats to trigger it?? Whats the magic number of PAs and in what season to trigger the option? Anyone know?

That makes him even harder to trade because his new team could be looking at 09-11, three seasons with this guy!

Any chance he's a heavy drinker like Vin Baker and they can viod his contract early?

It's even worse. It's automatically vested if he gets 2,400 At-Bats and 600 PA's 2010.

But ya, I imagine he gets cut by 2010 if we can't trade him

[teejay1324]

Lugo only batted .237 last year but he still drove in 73 runs and was 33/39 in stolen bases so at least he offered something at the plate. And he's shown pop before, he hit 12 homers in '06 with the Rays in only 289 ABs and he had 15 homers in 433 ABs in '03 also with Tampa.

But his most alarming stat is he allready has 13 GIDP, a career high. In 04 and 05 in 1300 ABs he grounded into 13 double plays. Maybe that's just bad luck? Either way it's insane to have two years worth of GIDP in 300 ABs!

And how inconsistent is this guys power numbers? Look at his career stats:

http://sports.espn.g...s?playerId=4290

Just don't know what to expect from him at the plate and his defense has never been great either. Makes you wonder how they could commit so much money to him.

[Fishy1]

Julio Lugo ranks first among qualifying AL SS in OBP. Not by much, but he does. He's 7th out of 10 in SLG at 329. Rent-a-wreck, Scutaro, and Bartlett all rank below him. Bartlett has a SLG% of .293.

Holy Christ.

Anyways, Lugo is 6 out of 10 AL SS in OPS. I'm under the impression Lugo has average range and below average hands for a SS. Bottom line is he sucks, but for a 9-man and a SS, he's getting on base at a very good clip and that's good enough for me.

[JimEdSF]

I don't think that is true. It is simply that Lugo and Cora are veterans and Lugo is getting paid a lot of money. Professional scouts are coming around to the idea of Lowrie being an adequate defensive SS with an above average bat.

I really hope you're right, but I have yet to be able to find a quote from someone without a vested interest in this being true that states that it is in fact true. I mean this in the best possible way of course, but I think Sickels is a bit of a Sox homer.

I don't think the FO is so concerned about money that they would play someone they feel to be worse over someone they feel to be better - they are pretty single-minded in the pursuit of the ring IMO. Either they are shopping Lugo and if they don't move him by the trade deadline then he will move to a back-up role, or they think he is better than Lowrie right now. I could be wrong, but Occam's Razor and all that.

The question of Lugo's worth is a separate point though, and a good one. Because we have Lowrie waiting in the wings, Lugo's performance is excruciating, but just think if we had to watch Eric Bruntlett or Brendan Harris every day? Sweet Jesus. The highway bridges would be packed with abandoned cars and jumpers.

[Blacken]

The highway bridges would be packed with abandoned cars and jumpers.

Obviously you haven't looked around on a day when Hansen pitched.

[JimEdSF]

Obviously you haven't looked around on a day when Hansen pitched.

Good point.

[jschip1]

I really hope you're right, but I have yet to be able to find a quote from someone without a vested interest in this being true that states that it is in fact true. I mean this in the best possible way of course, but I think Sickels is a bit of a Sox homer.

I could look into it a little more when I have more time, but I seem to remember sites like baseballthinkfactory and scouts.com talk about Lowrie's improved defense in 2007. They mention that his range is average at best, but he has good hands and a strong arm. Plus, he OBP's like .400, which is nice.

I'm just not sure that the FO thinks Lugo is better and that's why they stick with him, or that they completely disregard salaries in making their decisions. Sure, they are committed to winning, but it is also a business and they have shown that they will run the team like a business. This is all just reading tea leaves, of course, we don't really know. But having a $9 million a year sub on the bench is not a great maximization (real word?) of assets, and that has to be important to the club, too.

[njingles3]

Julio Lugo ranks first among qualifying AL SS in OBP. Not by much, but he does. He's 7th out of 10 in SLG at 329. Rent-a-wreck, Scutaro, and Bartlett all rank below him. Bartlett has a SLG% of .293.

Holy Christ.

Anyways, Lugo is 6 out of 10 AL SS in OPS. I'm under the impression Lugo has average range and below average hands for a SS. Bottom line is he sucks, but for a 9-man and a SS, he's getting on base at a very good clip and that's good enough for me.

What this says even more is that the AL has seen just dreadful production from its shortstops. The top 9 NL SS have a >.700 OPS while only the top 3 AL shortstops do - and even those three are still put to shame by Hanley, Hardy and Reyes. This is just one of those fluky things that will even out or swing the other way eventually. Not so long ago the AL had to leave one of Nomar, ARod, Jeter or Tejada home for the all-star break.

The problem is Lugo's defense though. His offense has been acceptable but not good enough to make up for all the errors and every day adventures out there. If he can tighten up the defense to last year's level I can live with his limited (but improved) production.

As for Jed, he should take Cora's roster spot immediately. For one, Cora is the worst baseball player I've ever seen and I'm not sure how much more development Lowrie needs in terms of getting every day at bats. If the Sox are willing to sacrifice a partial season's worth of development as a starter for Masterson, I don't see why they're unwilling to do the same with Lowrie when it would certainly help the big club now to have him as the backup infielder (assuming Lugo remains the starter). Since cutting Cora would make Tito resign, I imagine we'll have to wait for the September call-up at which point Jed should be given every opportunity to make a potential playoff roster over Cora.

[njingles3]

But having a $9 million a year sub on the bench is not a great maximization (real word?) of assets, and that has to be important to the club, too.

Since the object of the game is to win and they have to pay him whether he starts or not, the greatest use of assets would be to play the guy who performs the best.

[JimEdSF]

I could look into it a little more when I have more time, but I seem to remember sites like baseballthinkfactory and scouts.com talk about Lowrie's improved defense in 2007. They mention that his range is average at best, but he has good hands and a strong arm. Plus, he OBP's like .400, which is nice.

No, you're right, there have been talks of his improvement, I've just struggled to find anyone (outside of the Boston media quoting Hazen) who has stated he can stick at short. And believe you me, I have tried desperately.

I'm just not sure that the FO thinks Lugo is better and that's why they stick with him, or that they completely disregard salaries in making their decisions. Sure, they are committed to winning, but it is also a business and they have shown that they will run the team like a business. This is all just reading tea leaves, of course, we don't really know. But having a $9 million a year sub on the bench is not a great maximization (real word?) of assets, and that has to be important to the club, too.

I don't mean to downplay this angle, sorry. I think you're right, and I think that is why we've seen as much Lugo as we have, assuming that Lowrie can play short. It's a smart business decision to assess his true value, and attempt to generate value in the marketplace, and he needs to play to do that. I just think that when the rubber hits the road in the race to the post-season they'll start the guy who gives them the best chance to win.

I guess the fact is that Lugo is a league-average shortstop when you take everything into account. His current WARP value is 2.3, VORP 11.4. He's not worth $9M but there are probably a few teams who would happily take his (heavily) subsidized contract. I am kind of in the camp that he would benefit from being in a smaller market. He just seems to be a guy who thinks too much, and guys like that don't do well in the fishbowl.

[jschip1]

I just think that when the rubber hits the road in the race to the post-season they'll start the guy who gives them the best chance to win.

I hope this is what happens, I guess we'll have to wait and see. Another point on Lowrie's defense is that if he is just an average or slightly below average defender with a plus bat, the Sox could live with that for two more years after this one and then slide him over to 3B when Lowell's contract is up after the 2010 season. I don't know too much about the prospects, but I seem to recall that there is a SS down there somewhere who could be close to ready about that time.

[JimEdSF]

I hope this is what happens, I guess we'll have to wait and see. Another point on Lowrie's defense is that if he is just an average or slightly below average defender with a plus bat, the Sox could live with that for two more years after this one and then slide him over to 3B when Lowell's contract is up after the 2010 season. I don't know too much about the prospects, but I seem to recall that there is a SS down there somewhere who could be close to ready about that time.

I could see that happening, certainly. Conceivably either Diaz (MLB-ready defensive SS now, but light bat) or Navarro (has surprised with the bat, good glove) could be ready by then. Possibly even the much-heralded, but slow-adjusting Tejeda could be in the ML picture with a breakout season next year (more and more I think that's a stretch though).

[DaftPunkFan37]

I guess we stash him onto the DL and bring up Lowrie for now

Julio Lugo left Friday's game with an apparent leg injury.
Lugo pulled up lame while running out a ground ball and collapsed into a heap on the ground, staying down for several minutes before being helped off the field. Alex Cora replaced him.

[njingles3]

With the all-star break coming up it's almost guaranteed that Cora starts and they wait it out until after the break to decide if Lugo needs to go on the DL.

edit: unless it's immediately discovered to be serious, which Tito thinks it might be apparently.

Edited by njingles3, 11 July 2008 - 10:17 PM.

[thefatman]

With the all-star break coming up it's almost guaranteed that Cora starts and they wait it out until after the break to decide if Lugo needs to go on the DL.

edit: unless it's immediately discovered to be serious, which Tito thinks it might be apparently.

Wouldn't it be even more likely that we would see Lowrie thanks to the fact that the All Star Break is coming up?

What I mean is, if we don't call someone up, we only have the one shortstop, Cora. Whatever you think of Cora, if he gets hurt in the next two games ridiculous things are going to start to happen. That, and Tito and Theo have both made it clear in the past that they prefer to have viable players to take over every position in an emergency.

With the All Star Break coming up, giving several days that count towards the 10-day rule for sending a guy down, a roster move is a little easier whether or not Lugo goes on the DL and he's useless for the short term. SO I think we do see Lowrie at least on the 25-man roster by tomorrow. As for whether he'll actually play... ehh...

THe other alternative is to call up the other shortstop on our 40-man roster. One Argenis Diaz, the defensive specialist down in Lancaster. I think we'd all prefer to see Jed, but Argenis is technically an option, especially if you decide he's never going to hit so just haul his butt up here to do the thing he already does at a major league level -- defend.

Edited by thefatman, 11 July 2008 - 11:25 PM.

[njingles3]

Wouldn't it be even more likely that we would see Lowrie thanks to the fact that the All Star Break is coming up?

What I mean is, if we don't call someone up, we only have the one shortstop, Cora. Whatever you think of Cora, if he gets hurt in the next two games ridiculous things are going to start to happen. That, and Tito and Theo have both made it clear in the past that they prefer to have viable players to take over every position in an emergency.

With the All Star Break coming up, giving several days that count towards the 10-day rule for sending a guy down, a roster move is a little easier whether or not Lugo goes on the DL and he's useless for the short term. SO I think we do see Lowrie at least on the 25-man roster by tomorrow. As for whether he'll actually play... ehh...

THe other alternative is to call up the other shortstop on our 40-man roster. One Argenis Diaz, the defensive specialist down in Lancaster. I think we'd all prefer to see Jed, but Argenis is technically an option, especially if you decide he's never going to hit so just haul his butt up here to do the thing he already does at a major league level -- defend.

Diaz has more errors than Lugo this season, and is 21 years old. There is literally zero chance that this happens, he's only on the 40 man to protect him from the rule 5 draft.

[thefatman]

I don't think it's a realisitc possibility either, but just throwing it out there. Point was, we're probably going to see a callup of a guy who can play at short unless the FO makes the decision that Pedroia can back up shortstop in an emergency.

Edited by thefatman, 12 July 2008 - 08:04 AM.

[CapeCodsBabyBull]

This is great.. Let the Lowrie era begin..

[rglenmt]

Lugo's MRI this morning will determine whether Julio goies on DL. An interesting question might be whether Lowrie is called to play SS or share the position with Alex Cora? Also, it might not surprise me if Joe Thurston is called to fill in. Thurston is a veteran who has been playing 2B at Pawtucket and is hitting very well at AAA, and might actually be more valuable to the Sox. Of course, the intervening All Star break is also going to be a factor, so the teams' doctors are going to have to prognosticate how long Julio is likely out and whether he could be back healthy enough to play again after the All Star break. It sounds like, in some form, the posters are going to get part of what they have been asking for.

[thefatman]

Why would they call up Thurston? He doesn't have a lot of SS experience and what this team needs right now is a backup SS, either a guy stepping behind Cora or a guy stepping ahead of him and simply replacing Lugo as the starter. I don't think they consider Pedroia an option at all even in an emergency, making a Thurston callup pretty meaningless.

Unless they go nuts and call up Diaz, or make a trade for a can't-hit glove guy like Tony Pena, Jr, Lowrie's it. And they have to find a way to get Lowrie on the team in the short term because otherwise they have no insurance should something happen to Cora in the middle of the game -- unless Manny's still taking grounders at short of course.

Also there's very little downside to a trip to the DL by Lugo. With the All Star Break you're not missing as many games as you might and it's better to get Lugo healthy if you can, while playing a guy who might possibly be better than him as a regular starter in his place in the meantime.

By the way, it would not surprise me considering Lugo's diminished range and struggles to drive the ball (not to mention his lack of explosiveness on the basepaths) to learn that his leg problems have been going on for a little while and he's been playing through it. The parts of his game that are absent this year seem to me to be exactly the parts that the lower body plays the largest role in anyway (power, speed, range, footwork)

Edited by thefatman, 12 July 2008 - 09:28 AM.

[JimEdSF]

The parts of his game that are absent this year seem to me to be exactly the parts that the lower body plays the largest role in anyway (power, speed, range, footwork)

Basically, anything that would make Lugo an asset to have on your team.

I kind of agree with you, although he has a 63% GB rate and a .330 BABIP. Pretty tough to do unless you're getting down the line in a hurry. Could be something that bothered him more laterally.

[thefatman]

Basically, anything that would make Lugo an asset to have on your team.

I kind of agree with you, although he has a 63% GB rate and a .330 BABIP. Pretty tough to do unless you're getting down the line in a hurry. Could be something that bothered him more laterally.

Yeah, but then we have all the GIDP's, already 4 more than his previous career high. Even with all the extra grounders, something's up there.

Funny though, I kinda think Lugo *is* an asset to the team. Just not enough of one to justify his albatross salary. He's not making any more outs than he ever has, and league-leading OBP's at short don't grow on trees. I don't like his metamorphosis into David Eckstein either but if he ever straightened out his lamentable fielding I think Julio might start attracting defenders.

Edited by thefatman, 12 July 2008 - 10:02 AM.

[Stuart Scott's Lazy Eye]

per "Bradford Files"

Julio Lugo limped out of the Red Sox clubhouse just minutes ago, clearly worried about the status of the left quad he injured while running to first base in the ninth inning of his team’s 7-3 loss to the Orioles.

“I felt something pop in my quad. We’ll see tomorrow when we take an MRI,” he said. “I felt something pop in there.

“I’m really worried because I know it wasn’t something where you just pull a muscle. I felt something pop, and I’m worried.”

Sounds like a torn quad. Looks like we get to see Cora for six weeks.

[thefatman]

per "Bradford Files"



Sounds like a torn quad. Looks like we get to see Cora for six weeks.

Umm no, they won't run with just one player who can play short on the team for 6 weeks. Either Lowrie, or a trade, will happen between now and the time Lugo comes off the DL.

[rglenmt]

Whether it be Lowrie who has a great upside as middle infielder or third baseman, Thurston who has experience as a SS, 2B and outfielder and hot with his AAA bat, or Diaz who a true SS, the Red Sox should not go even 2 games risking another injury which would have them have to do a makeshift cover should Cora get hurt.

Sox are in a pennant race and we fans do not want anymore losses to the Orioles.

[Stuart Scott's Lazy Eye]

Umm no, they won't run with just one player who can play short on the team for 6 weeks. Either Lowrie, or a trade, will happen between now and the time Lugo comes off the DL.

Really? They're going to trade for a shortstop when they have one on the bench and one down on the farm? Who exactly are they trading for, and what are we giving up in order to replace lugo for six weeks? Are we trading the injured lugo? are we trading cora, whom no one would want? Or are we giving up Lowrie? Or are we just not giving up any of them and keeping 4 shortstops? I don't know if you're new around here, but Tito is in love with Cora for some mysterious reason. I'd like to see Lowrie, I'm hoping it's Lowire, but I'm seeing Cora for the time being.

[thefatman]

You missed where I said "either Lowrie, or a trade." Point is there will be two active and able-bodied players on this team who can play shortstop at all times.

(although if they made a deal for Marco Scutaro eith an eye towards cutting Cora when Lugo gets back I wouldn't blink, but I really, really doubt that will happen with Lowrie right there as an internal option)

Edited by thefatman, 12 July 2008 - 12:43 PM.

[thefatman]

I'm sure Lowrie will get some at bats against lefthanders at least, a definite Cora weakness. How much time he gets will be determined by how he does against them. I've noticed that performance doesn't determine how this front office handles its business nearly as much as what the front office thought about the player going into the season but I'm pretty sure that this is a job that Lowrie can earn.

I agree we'll see an anoying amount of Cora playing over the rookie, just like last year with Pedroia. In Tito's and Theo's mind that's what the veteran is for. Still and all, Cora's not exactly a hopeless incompetent at short so I can deal with that.

[CapeCodsBabyBull]

Still and all, Cora's not exactly a hopeless incompetent at short so I can deal with that.

I can't wait for all the "headsy" plays we'll be seeing..

[Stuart Scott's Lazy Eye]

I can't wait for all the "headsy" plays we'll be seeing..

We won't. Enter Jed.

[esaslaw]

we can get rid of Lugo in one way or another if Lowrie plays real well.

[esaslaw]

if they made a deal for Marco Scutaro eith an eye towards cutting Cora when Lugo gets back I wouldn't blink, but I really, really doubt that will happen with Lowrie right there as an internal option)

who would you be willing to give up for Scutaro, that would interest his team? Not happening/

Edited by esaslaw, 12 July 2008 - 04:37 PM.

[thefatman]

who would you be willing to give up for Scutaro, that would interest his team? Not happening/

Actually it's not all that improbable that a team struggling to find its offensive identity would be willing to swap a bench infielder (when they have 3 shortstops on their team) for a decent older prospect like Bell or Daeges.

But that's neither here nor there. Enter Lowrie!