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Lugo is a liability - How do we get rid of the body?
#1
Posted 19 April 2008 - 01:17 AM
#2
Posted 19 April 2008 - 01:58 AM
Lugo isn't going anywhere. Nobody would want him even if his salrey were realistic.
#3
Posted 19 April 2008 - 02:36 AM
He's under contract for another season at about 7mil., plus an option that I assume the RS hold.
Lugo isn't going anywhere. Nobody would want him even if his salrey were realistic.
No. I know for a fact that it's worse than that. He's under contract until at least 2010:
http://www.mlb4u.com...m...ton Red Sox
I just don't know how much of the $36 million has yet to be paid.
#4
Posted 19 April 2008 - 03:09 AM
4 years/$36M (2007-10), plus $9M 2011 vesting option
* signed as a free agent 12/06
* $1M signing bonus (paid 4/07 - 10/07)
* 07:$8M, 08:$9M, 09:$9M, 10:$9M, 11:$9M vesting option
* option vests with 2,400 plate appearances 2007-10 & 600 PAs 2010
http://mlbcontracts....on-red-sox.html
#5
Posted 19 April 2008 - 07:27 AM
#6
Posted 19 April 2008 - 07:52 AM
Finally, I'd like to point out the OPS's Lugo put up at AAA. In '99, in 400 some AB's, he put up a .843, and the next year in a 100 or so it was a .868. Jed's last year at AAA was better than any Julio ever had and he's always been awesome offensively (.896 last year), but the difference in their defenses, according to the scouts, is pretty significant, with Lugo being better.
#7
Posted 19 April 2008 - 08:27 AM
The team is 11-7 this morning in spite of a miserably constructed schedule, uninspiring starting pitching and a #3 hitter who's been taking an extended spring training. Theo has the luxury (and certainly has earned the right) to sit back and let things play out a little until he can resolve the situation to the team's maximum advantage.
Edit: As for getting rid of a body, I am led to believe that a hacksaw and the trunk of a Caddy is a pretty useful combo.
Edited by P'tucket, rhymes with..., 19 April 2008 - 08:31 AM.
#8
Posted 19 April 2008 - 08:57 AM
#9
Posted 19 April 2008 - 09:54 AM
It was the same with Julian Tavarez and look how valuable Tavarez is now?
I say people back off Lugo and give him a chance he might surprise you if you keep an open mind.
#10
Posted 19 April 2008 - 10:49 AM
People remain at jumping to conclusions on Lugo. People dont seem to have an open mind when it comes to him. He bounced back to a .280 average for the second half, drove in 70 runs and stole 33 bases while playing better then expected defense. Hes off to a tough start defensively this season but you guys seem to just jump down his throat before giving him a chance. This is what I hate about some fans. They immediately rush to conclusions and refuse to keep an open mind.
Julio Lugo is in his 8th major league season and has a career OPS+ of 88, an OPS+ of 65 last season and of 63 so far this season. By point of comparison the average ML shortstop in 2007 had an OPS+ of 94. He is what he is at this point, a slightly below average shortstop who had a couple of well-timed good years. The mean to which he is regressing is just not particularly good.
#11
Posted 19 April 2008 - 11:51 AM
Julio Lugo is in his 8th major league season and has a career OPS+ of 88, an OPS+ of 65 last season and of 63 so far this season. By point of comparison the average ML shortstop in 2007 had an OPS+ of 94. He is what he is at this point, a slightly below average shortstop who had a couple of well-timed good years. The mean to which he is regressing is just not particularly good.
Agreed. The contract given to Lugo was ill-advised and made out of desperation. We'd given up Renteria, we needed a shortstop and we were competing with the Mets for Lugo's services. That's a formula for overpaying. My question essentially boils down to - would Theo do with Lugo what he did with Renteria? At some point this year (which includes the offseason), I think he should because I think Lowrie is ready.
Edited by WinoWriter, 19 April 2008 - 11:52 AM.
#12
Posted 19 April 2008 - 12:04 PM
#13
Posted 19 April 2008 - 01:02 PM
Julio Lugo is in his 8th major league season and has a career OPS+ of 88, an OPS+ of 65 last season and of 63 so far this season. By point of comparison the average ML shortstop in 2007 had an OPS+ of 94. He is what he is at this point, a slightly below average shortstop who had a couple of well-timed good years. The mean to which he is regressing is just not particularly good.
He is our #9 hitter. Relax. The contract is rough but we can handle it. If he can hit .270+ and steal close to 30 bases and settle around the same amount of errors he did last year there shouldnt be an issue.
#14
Posted 19 April 2008 - 01:03 PM
Three games. Let's not anoint Lowrie as the heir apparent just yet. Three games.
Definitely. More importantly, a lot of people seem to be assuming that Lugo is going to remain a 65 OPS+ guy. I'm not sure that's fair. I think it would be wise to wait and see if he returns to his Tampa Bay or second half of last year numbers. I think if he hit like that, combined with his at least average if not better defense, he could be an above-average shortstop.
Give Julio a chance dawgs.
#15
Posted 19 April 2008 - 04:20 PM
Three games. Let's not anoint Lowrie as the heir apparent just yet. Three games.
Ummmm, did you see who started this thread... Wino gets his jollies playing dumb.
#16
Posted 19 April 2008 - 05:09 PM
Ummmm, did you see who started this thread... Wino gets his jollies playing dumb.
I take no joy at the ignorant notion of blocking Lowrie in favor of a 32 year old shortstop who's played 163 games for us while compiling an OPS in the .630 range. Face it. Lugo would be out if it weren't for his contract.
#17
Posted 19 April 2008 - 07:42 PM
I take no joy at the ignorant notion of blocking Lowrie in favor of a 32 year old shortstop who's played 163 games for us while compiling an OPS in the .630 range. Face it. Lugo would be out if it weren't for his contract.
Likewise, I take no joy at the ignorant notion of handing the everyday shortstop job to a rookie who has played exactly one game at that very position. Isn't there a "We should have traded Jon Lester for Johan Santana while we had the chance" thread you can start instead of this nonsense?
#18
Posted 19 April 2008 - 09:57 PM
We're not even sure if Lowrie can handle the shortstop position adequately. This is a total kneejerk reaction, Lowrie has played 1 game at short, and we're ready to hand him the everyday job?
Edited by That K Dilf, 19 April 2008 - 09:58 PM.
#19
Posted 19 April 2008 - 10:39 PM
He is our #9 hitter. Relax. The contract is rough but we can handle it. If he can hit .270+ and steal close to 30 bases and settle around the same amount of errors he did last year there shouldnt be an issue.
I honestly have no idea why you would tell me to relax. I clarified the statistical standing of Lugo's offensive production relative to other shortstops. I did not say "He is preventing us from winning a World Series" or "We should trade/cut him right away." All I said was that statistically he is a below average shortstop -- which he is. How the Red Sox choose to handle that (e.g. keep him as the #9 hitter, trade him, etc) is a whole other issue. For all you know based on my posts, you and I are in 100% agreement. I think you are arguing with someone else.
#20
Posted 19 April 2008 - 10:41 PM
While I agree its likely premature to boot Julio; lets not lose sight of the fact that with 6 Es already this season, there are serious questions about whether Lugo can handle the shortstop position adequately.We're not even sure if Lowrie can handle the shortstop position adequately.
#21
Posted 19 April 2008 - 10:56 PM
#22
Posted 19 April 2008 - 11:16 PM
I think were are stuck with Lugo for awhile. But Cora's contract is up after the year and I see Lowrie taking his place and providing backup at 2b, ss, and 3b next year.
If he continues playing the way he's playing, im all for lowrie. Small sample size though, and cora is a proven benchplayer. His 2M is manageable for his role, and although lowrie would be playing for the minimum, it's a wash in todays salaries.
#23
Posted 20 April 2008 - 03:57 AM
However, the one thing I can't see changing with Lugo too much is his propensity for being a bit too tightly-wound, if not downright scatterbrained. Maybe he shouldn't be playing in one of the "pressure venues", of which Boston is Exhibit A.
In one of his at-bats the other day, if I recall correctly (though not specifically), the two guys right in front of him walk on something like a total of nine pitches. Does Lugo then bother to take even ONE pitch, in an attempt to intensify the pressure on a pitcher who was having obvious problems with finding the strike zone (maybe he thought that the RS' pitcher was on-deck; with this guy, you never know)? No, he hacks on the first one - something he seems to do a lot of in similar situations.
Perhaps he's trying to "catch lightning in a bottle", but he ain't no Ben Franklin, despite the fact that he's making over 70,000 BFs this year. And last night, when the RS are having a modest rally early in the game (2nd or 3rd Inning?), what does he do? He tries to PULL the FIRST pitch through the left side of the infield, and instead, GIDPs. No restraint, and seemingly, no sense of the situation when he comes up to the plate. Sometimes you get a result like that no matter what, but do you think that he could try to go to right field, or God forbid, take a pitch or two? Nuh-uh.
If there's a guy who needs to constantly be "on signs" (too bad there weren't "signs" which could help his frenetic defense), it's Lugo. Tito appears to trust most of these guys, leaving them "on their own" (unless he puts on a squeeze, hit-and-run, or the like), with undeniably great results.
However, I'm beginning to think that Lugo (I hate to keep calling him by his last name, but he doesn't have a nickname - maybe THAT'S his problem - does anyone know the Spanish language equivalent of "he who always seems to be jumping out of his own skin"?) should be helped a little more, from pitch to pitch, with each of his plate appearances.
The sad part is that he has great speed and better than average hitting ability, but seems unable to keep himself focused within the parameters of those skills.
Edited by My Dixie - Wrecked!, 20 April 2008 - 04:13 AM.
#24
Posted 20 April 2008 - 06:16 AM
#25
Posted 20 April 2008 - 10:22 AM
I'm not sure a psychologist would be as good an answer as a change in venue. Lugo can play baseball at a major league level, but I'm not sure he can play Red Sox baseball at a Boston level, with all that this implies in terms of pressure, expectations, peer production, etc.
I'm not certain that Lowrie is "the answer" - but I'm convinced that Lugo isn't. For this year, giving Lowrie an opportunity to earn some PT and/or trading for someone who at least doesn't take stuff off the table seems like a more reasonable approach than hoping that Lugo morphs into a player that he might have been briefly, but doesn't appear to be consistently. And for the future, I'd hate to see Lowrie play the "Cora role" as a Lugo backup. Slotting high-ceiling prospects in as subs to low-performing vets seems counterproductive to me...
#26
Posted 20 April 2008 - 11:16 AM
However, I'm beginning to think that Lugo (I hate to keep calling him by his last name, but he doesn't have a nickname - maybe THAT'S his problem - does anyone know the Spanish language equivalent of "he who always seems to be jumping out of his own skin"?) ...
Maybe it could be some form of "extensive crotch-grabber".
#27
Posted 20 April 2008 - 12:10 PM
#28
Posted 20 April 2008 - 12:26 PM
Yeah, he was fun and did well. Just got hosed by Edgar Rentacenter being available after '04, and the FO getting stars in its eyes for him. Oh well.Anyone else missing Orlando Cabrera?
Edited by Beomoose, 20 April 2008 - 12:27 PM.
#29
Posted 20 April 2008 - 12:31 PM
A change of venue may be the best solution, but at this stage of the season I think that the Sox owe it to themselves and perhaps Lugo as well to give this a little more time. You get to the point where you have to give some of these guys more than one season to prove their worth. Lowrie could be the future, but I'm not sure that he's the present. I say give him a little more time in AAA. If he's playing well, perhaps Cora becomes expendable mid season. He can get second half playing time spelling Pedrioa, Lugo and Lowell. Perhaps more time because of injury of if Lugo can't pull it together.I'm not sure a psychologist would be as good an answer as a change in venue.
#30
Posted 20 April 2008 - 12:48 PM
Yeah, he was fun and did well. Just got hosed by Edgar Rentacenter being available after '04, and the FO getting stars in its eyes for him. Oh well.
He had success in Anaheim and now in Chicago. What can you do....
#31
Posted 20 April 2008 - 03:13 PM
He went deep in the SS hole and made a strong throw to 1B earlier today. The Sox have six guys in the lineup who are hitting over .300. His defense is an asset
#32
Posted 20 April 2008 - 03:36 PM
Hey, Lugo in LF for the 9th inning
He went deep in the SS hole and made a strong throw to 1B earlier today. The Sox have six guys in the lineup who are hitting over .300. His defense is an asset
Everything that I have heard about him has said he is great with the glove and had an accurate arm but maybe lacked a little strength so that is good to hear. Edit: I thought you were talking about Lowrie...I have only been listening to the games what do you think of Lowrie's defense so far?
As far as his bat: 2-5 today and a key hit in the 8th. Im sure Theo and co. are having some serious discussions about what to do with Lugo.
Edited by chester, 20 April 2008 - 05:50 PM.
#33
Posted 20 April 2008 - 03:43 PM
Aside from the Es.His defense is an asset
Also, as the first few innings today showed, dead spots in the order hurt. They lead to men LOB, alot. Everyone makes outs, everyone makes outs at bad times, but Lugo does it consistently. His AVG with men on is gawdawful right now, and the hits he does get seem to be mostly coming from his ability to leg out weak grounders.
#34
Posted 20 April 2008 - 07:22 PM
He hasn't been significantly pressured yet. When he is, we'll probably see the oft-mentioned Jeterian range.what do you think of Lowrie's defense so far?
#35
Posted 21 April 2008 - 07:06 AM
A change of venue may be the best solution, but at this stage of the season I think that the Sox owe it to themselves and perhaps Lugo as well to give this a little more time. You get to the point where you have to give some of these guys more than one season to prove their worth. Lowrie could be the future, but I'm not sure that he's the present. I say give him a little more time in AAA. If he's playing well, perhaps Cora becomes expendable mid season. He can get second half playing time spelling Pedrioa, Lugo and Lowell. Perhaps more time because of injury of if Lugo can't pull it together.
I get that it's an idea not to make SS a perpetual revolving door, especially since most of those who've been broomed out have succeeded after they left. FWIW, though, I wasn't one of those who thought that either Cabrera or Gonzales needed replacing. I did think that Renteria needed to go, and I don't believe he would have been successful if he had stayed in a Sox uniform.
Personally, I believe that Lugo is in the Renteria category: on balance, I don't think he's going to be an asset to the team. I suppose you can make the argument that continuity is worth something, but I'm not sure it's worth keeping Lugo's suck in the everyday lineup...
PS - From today's Globe, with reference to Lowrie:
"In Boston, with Pedroia at second and Lowell at third, the only spot he could possibly crack is shortstop if Julio Lugo falters."
What an unusual use of "if"!
Edited by mwonow, 21 April 2008 - 07:14 AM.
#36
Posted 21 April 2008 - 01:50 PM
#37
Posted 21 April 2008 - 02:01 PM
Comparing Lugo and Lowrie using Equivalent Average, Lowrie projects to be a better offensive player than Lugo, and it's just a matter of time before Lowrie's the Ellsbury and Lugo is the Crisp ( with questionable defense), and they'll rotate them as necessary until someone is hurt or another team makes a proper offer.
note : I included Hanley Ramirez's minor/major league numbers as he was the top OPS producer at SS for players with 1000 plate appearances from 2003-2008

Here are top 20 SS with 1200+ PA from 2k3-08 color coded by Gross Production Average (GPA); green is good production, yellow is above average and red is average
Edited by NomoMrNiceGuy, 21 April 2008 - 02:08 PM.
#38
Posted 21 April 2008 - 02:21 PM
Edited by My Dixie - Wrecked!, 21 April 2008 - 02:27 PM.
#39
Posted 21 April 2008 - 09:11 PM
Who knows though, Lugo's hitting over .300 right now after today's game. Maybe he's turning it around with Jed on his tail.
#40
Posted 21 April 2008 - 09:27 PM
#41
Posted 21 April 2008 - 09:30 PM
He had success in Anaheim and now in Chicago. What can you do....
You really need to get over it. We lost him to free agency. I've heard loud whispers that the Sox would not have brought him back even if he offered to play for free. (There were off-field issues.)
We got a draft pick when we lost him. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that draft pick's name was Jacoby Ellsbury. No, I'm happy how things turned out. I do believe the Sox survived his crippling loss.
Edited by RedSox04, 21 April 2008 - 09:31 PM.
#42
Posted 21 April 2008 - 11:23 PM
Giving him the benefit of the doubt is the right thing right now. There is a lot of money wrapped up in Lugo's contract and a staff change just means we are going to be paying some other team to take him off our hands at some point in the future. If Lugo can do some things right now to increase his trade value, it means we have to pay less to some other team.
Lowrie is great, he's going to continue to be great, and I expect him to be the full time SS before the end of the season. The best possibility we have is that Lugo proves he can be a .300+ hitter, learns how to hit more than a weak ground ball here or there, and we ship him off to another team without having to bankroll him through 2010. I imagine pressure to make a change will continue to grow as we reach some rough spots in the schedule, but Lugo's offensive hole is not the worst thing on Earth to have to contend with. His fielding still marks him as an average to above average defensive short stop, the bad games in Toronto aside (do they have astroturf on the infield up there?)
M
#43
Posted 22 April 2008 - 03:17 AM
You know, if Lugo is the worst problem we have to contend with on this board right now, the team is in pretty good shape.
Seriously.
I know that he looks weak at the plate, but take a deep breath and consider the following:
Julio Lugo is in the top 4 shortstops in the AL in on-base percentage.
Julio Lugo is dead center among AL shortstops for slugging.
Julio Lugo is (probably obviously, given the above) slightly above the median SS in the AL for OPS.
All of the above are true whether you limit it to SS qualified for the batting title, or whether you admit a few more (all with 50+ plate appearances).
Yes, there are reasons to be somewhat concerned going forward. And yes, if there's a clear upgrade in Lowrie (or someone else) we should take it. Yes, a team with championship hopes doesn't settle for average production.
But for all the grumbling, so far this year Lugo's production looks to be about median to slightly better for AL shortstops.
#44
Posted 23 April 2008 - 01:12 AM
I agree with "Techsold...", if Lugo's offense is are main complaint, then we are doing fine as a team.
Lock this thread.
#45
Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:18 AM
Seriously.
I know that he looks weak at the plate, but take a deep breath and consider the following:
Julio Lugo is in the top 4 shortstops in the AL in on-base percentage.
Julio Lugo is dead center among AL shortstops for slugging.
Julio Lugo is (probably obviously, given the above) slightly above the median SS in the AL for OPS.
All of the above are true whether you limit it to SS qualified for the batting title, or whether you admit a few more (all with 50+ plate appearances).
Yes, there are reasons to be somewhat concerned going forward. And yes, if there's a clear upgrade in Lowrie (or someone else) we should take it. Yes, a team with championship hopes doesn't settle for average production.
But for all the grumbling, so far this year Lugo's production looks to be about median to slightly better for AL shortstops.
I agree with your overall point, but for what it is worth his .747 OPS puts him 21 out of 40 for all ML shortstops and 13 out of 24 counting only those with sufficient ABs to qualify for the batting title. Last year he finished 34 out of 40 and 20 out of 22 in those two categories respectively. So he has been slightly below average so far this year and was incredibly below average last year.
I think reasonable people can argue that he is not an issue (he is the #9 hitter and if this is the Sox worst problem than good for them) but I also think the converse is true. His performance has been bad enough for a long enough period that the Sox (and un-paid nutjobs such as ourselves) should keep a close eye on him. I definitely agree that if an upgrade comes along, they should grab it.
Edited by EdRalphRomero, 24 April 2008 - 01:08 PM.
#46
Posted 24 April 2008 - 11:28 AM
That taken into account, many (myself included) are more than willing to be happy with the production we are currently getting out of Skeletor.
Would I like to see Lowrie make it up to the bigs full time, sure. Do I think it's the right thing to do now, no.
#47
Posted 24 April 2008 - 01:53 PM
You know, if Lugo is the worst problem we have to contend with on this board right now, the team is in pretty good shape.
Agreed. We right now have two shortstops that are capable of being everyday players on most teams in the majors. I hardly see this as a "liability".
From what I have read in this thread, most people see it as unlikely that anyone would take Lugo off our hands, given his production and price. If this is the case, perhaps we should be worried about how we are going to get rid of Lowrie. If he, like Hanley Ramirez, would be worth another Becket/Lowell, then we should shop him.
#48
Posted 24 April 2008 - 07:01 PM
#49
Posted 24 April 2008 - 09:59 PM
In all seriousness though, I think people have to jump off the Jed Lowrie bandwagon for a bit. I have no doubt that he is going to be a serviceable player in the near future but to suggest that he should take over for Lugo after a few games is absurd. Do the letters SSS mean anything to anybody. Given Lugo makes a little too much money to be producing at his level but it's not like the Sox are the Marlins or something. They can afford to do this so hell, let him ride it out and let's see how Lowrie does the rest of the year, whether it be in AAA or as a super sub (I'd prefer in AAA to get reps) and revisit it in Spring Training. In all likelihood there is a slim chance that we can get rid of the body of one Julio Lugo.
#50
Posted 25 April 2008 - 06:25 AM
I know he is going to slump again, especially on the road, but I just don't see the point of this thread any more. I mean, how many ways can we say that, barring a trade, we are stuck with him and Lowrie is a hot prospect? The only thing I have learned here is Lugo's nickname is Skeletor, and I guess that makes Coco Beast Man.
M
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