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4/18-21 Messing with Texas


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#1 behindthepen


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 09:32 AM

Texas April
2008 TITLE DEFENSE
TEXAS 7-9, 5-3 away at BOSTON 10-7, 4-2 at home
Fri 7:05 RHP Mendoza 0-1, 1.80 Matsuzaka 3-0, 2.70 NESN - WRKO
Sat 7:05 RHP Jennings 0-3, 8.73 Lester 1-2, 5.31 NESN PLUS - WRKO
Sun 1:35 RHP Chan Ho Millwood 1-2, 2.42 Wakefield 1-0, 3.18 NESN - WRKO
Mon Pats Day 11:05 LHP Gabbard 1-0, 2.41 Buchholz 0-1, 6.75 NESN - WEEI


So we'll be facing 2 pitchers for the first time (Mendoza and Gabbard), and we've seen Jennings only twice, and not since 04.

Last year, the Sox were 6-4 vs. TEX, 2-2 at Fenway. Ironically, Gabbard got the final win last season.

Texas comes in off of 2 straight wins in TOR beating Burnett and Halladay (although they beat Burnett in 14th inning relief on Wednesday night. That's right, 8 IP from the bullpen Wed, but only 2 Thursday night). Before that, they had lost 5 straight at home to TOR and LAAoA.

07-08 stats
Offense: Pitching:
2007 RPG OPS+ AVG OBP SLG 2B HR RAPG ERA+ BB/G K/G HR Bullpen ERA
TEX 5.04 4.88 away 98 .263 .328 .426 298 179 5.21 5.48 away 95 4.1 6.0 155 3.71
BOS 5.35 5.83 home 107 .279 .362 .444 352 166 4.06 4.35 home 123 3.0 7.1 151 3.10
AL 4.90 .271 .338 .423 4.90 3.3 6.5 4.33
Offense: Pitching:
2008 RPG OPS+ AVG OBP SLG 2B HR RAPG ERA+ BB/G K/G HR Bullpen ERA
TEX 4.25 5.13 away 105 .262 .340 .416 36 15 4.69 3.88 away 112 4.4 4.8 9 4.06
BOS 4.82 5.33 home 109 .289 .359 .431 32 15 5.06 4.17 home 90 4.6 7.4 13 5.80
AL 4.56 .263 .337 .401 4.56 3.5 6.0 4.22



Speaking of bullpen, that 2007 TEX team got some good innings from some guy named Gagne. Why can't we get guys like that???

Edited by behindthepen, 19 April 2008 - 09:57 AM.


#2 behindthepen


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 09:37 AM

and yes, they are averaging only 4.8 k's per game; none of their starters have a K/9 over 6, and only Padilla is over 5 (5 K/9 or lower is the bottom third of the League).

Pitching by K/9
Player G GS IP H9 BB9 HR9 ERA RA RA+
SO9
Joaquin Benoit 6 0 5.3 5.06 10.12 13.5 0 5.06 10.12 0.45
Jamey Wright 6 0 9.7 9.31 2.79 8.38 0 0.93 2.79 1.67
Eddie Guardado 2 0 1.3 13.5 0 6.75 0 0 0 44
Vicente Padilla 4 4 26 10.73 3.12 5.19 0.69 3.12 3.81 1.2
Franklyn German 7 0 7.7 4.7 7.04 4.7 0 1.17 1.17 3.99
Scott Feldman 1 1 6 12 3 4.5 0 4.5 4.5 1.06
Jason Jennings 3 3 14.3 11.93 6.28 4.4 3.14 8.79 9.42 0.49
Kevin Millwood 4 4 26 9.69 3.46 4.15 0.35 2.42 3.12 1.47
Josh Rupe 3 0 7 9 7.71 3.86 0 6.43 6.43 0.74
Wes Littleton 2 0 5 5.4 0 3.6 0 0 0 47
Dustin Nippert 4 0 5.3 13.5 5.06 3.38 0 11.81 11.81 0.4
Kason Gabbard 3 3 18.7 10.12 2.89 3.38 0.48 2.41 2.41 1.93
C.J. Wilson 8 0 8 2.25 2.25 2.25 0 0 0 46
Luis Mendoza 1 1 5 14.4 5.4 1.8 0 1.8 7.2 0.66
Kazuo Fukumori 3 0 1.7 32.4 21.6 0 0 32.4 32.4 0.14
stats from baseballprospectus

#3 behindthepen


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 10:14 AM

I missed these 2 tidbits the first time through. Both from bradfordfiles

Just in case you didn’t know, Texas is coming to town tomorrow and its starting pitcher will be none other than Luis Mendoza, the pitcher the Red Sox traded in the Bryan Corey deal. I also noticed that Vincente Padilla is pitching for the Rangers tonight, which gives me the chance to relay a classic Padilla story some of the former Arizona guys were talking about the other day.

The Diamondbacks’ international scouting director Junior Noboa was supposed to pick up Padilla at the airport in Nicaragua after Arizona inked the pitcher. Noboa waited and waited and waited, until finally Padilla shows up … on a donkey holding his suitcase. So now they don’t have any place to leave the donkey, so Noboa ends up convincing Padilla that he has to sell it to some guy for $100 bucks. Good times!

so somebody here must have a scouting report and Mendoza.

#4 Jeff Van GULLY

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Posted 18 April 2008 - 10:42 AM

so somebody here must have a scouting report and Mendoza.



Spring Training article on Mendoza

A really good Sinker, rated one of the best pitches in the entire organization. Mediocre changeup and a curve. He has problems leaving his secondary stuff up in the zone and that is when he gets battered.


Here's some more...

The right-hander works primarily off a low-90’s sinker that he commands exceptionally well. His curveball and changeup are both average offerings and there is debate over which pitch is better. Mendoza’s secondary stuff may relegate him to the bullpen in time, but his sinker should at least make him a decent major league pitcher

Link

#5 behindthepen


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 01:19 PM

The Sox traded Mendoza out of AA in 06 after he was a 6.38 ERA pitcher in 9 starts. He returned to AA for Texas in 07, giving them 148 IP of 3.93 ERA ball, which earned him a promotion to the bigs, where in 6 games/16 IP he was good for a 2.25 ERA.

He's a low K, low BB, low HR, GB pitcher.

Last season Matusuzaka struggled in his May 25 start @TEX. He gave up no hits (2 walks) through 3, but then gave up a 2B (Sosa) and 2 HR (Catalanotto and Vazquez) for 5 runs in the 4th. The 5th was another hitless (but 1 BB) inning, and he was pulled with 85 pitches.

#6 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 01:22 PM

Last season Matusuzaka struggled in his May 25 start @TEX. He gave up no hits (2 walks) through 3, but then gave up a 2B (Sosa) and 2 HR (Catalanotto and Vazquez) for 5 runs in the 4th. The 5th was another hitless (but 1 BB) inning, and he was pulled with 85 pitches.

IIRC, Matsuzaka was experiencing some ... uh, "gastrointestinal distress" during that start, which probably accounts for some of the struggle.

#7 Bosoxen


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 01:44 PM

IIRC, Matsuzaka was experiencing some ... uh, "gastrointestinal distress" during that start, which probably accounts for some of the struggle.

You are correct, sir. That game was also delayed a good 2 or 3 hours due to rain (I remember because sitting around in the concourse, waiting for the game to start, really sucked). So he had a little extra time to sit around and ponder how much it was going to suck to pitch with that condition. We'll never know how much effect that had on his performance - if any, at all - but it's something else to consider.

#8 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 02:43 PM

Did the Sox undervalue David Murphy? Only 186 AB's in the bigs, but he's put up a 317 / 369 / 511 line. A .379 average on balls in play is unsustainable, but he's also hit really poorly at Arlington which seems odd.

Tiny sample for sure, but he seems to be having a pretty good start to his career and curious if the Sox kind of let one get away, it seemed like they soured on him fairly quickly.

#9 tailwind


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 02:47 PM

Did the Sox undervalue David Murphy? Only 186 AB's in the bigs, but he's put up a 317 / 369 / 511 line. A .379 average on balls in play is unsustainable, but he's also hit really poorly at Arlington which seems odd.

Tiny sample for sure, but he seems to be having a pretty good start to his career and curious if the Sox kind of let one get away, it seemed like they soured on him fairly quickly.


Even if they did underestimate him (which is doubtful, if you ask me) where was he going to play here? We've already got a complete clusterfuck going on between guys that already start, others that want to, and others that could probably play in the majors elsewhere between Ellsbury, Drew, Manny, Crisp, Kielty, and Moss. Last year they had Hinske trolling around out there, too.

#10 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 02:53 PM

Fair point for sure. That he was a lefty certainly didn't help either.

#11 LondonSox


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Posted 18 April 2008 - 05:39 PM

Did the Sox undervalue David Murphy? Only 186 AB's in the bigs, but he's put up a 317 / 369 / 511 line. A .379 average on balls in play is unsustainable, but he's also hit really poorly at Arlington which seems odd.

Tiny sample for sure, but he seems to be having a pretty good start to his career and curious if the Sox kind of let one get away, it seemed like they soured on him fairly quickly.


It's impossible for teams like the Sox to get "fair" vale for 4th outfielder types. Every team knows they can afford to pay for a good 4th outfielder and when that team has a system that's solid they have multiple 4th outfielder options (in Sox case see Kielty, Moss and even Crisp/Ellsbury). If they're good enough to start for a big team that's different but borderline starter/4th outfield, it's just not the same value and everyone knows it.

That's how I see it anyway. The same for Gabbard, 5th starter that never projects to be a star, might have a year or two worthy of a 3/4 but never going to be more. Worth more to a rangers type team rebuilding than a Sox team for depth.

It's goign to happen time and time again, it'll look like the Sox gave up early or a borderline prospect, some you'll forget and never get mentioned, some will succeed and people wonder why they didn't do it for Boston. Well because you'd never give them the shot unless you had to on a playoff level team.

I just wish Beltre hadn't been given up. I'd never moan about Gabbard or Murphy no matter their success. If I do it says here, you can punch me. I'll fight forever to support trading those guys for the possible series clinching piece. (even when it's an error) However, I'll never support giving away lottery tickets who are capable of being 1 in 100 shots of being elite major league talent. Throw in extra filler and keep the teenager who might just make a difference to a big team.

To answer the question more specifically, no they didn't he (murphy) could never have started for the Sox and everyone knew it

#12 behindthepen


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Posted 19 April 2008 - 06:03 PM

Jason Jennings.
He went from COL where he gave a HR about 2% of the time, and then goes to HOU where it was 4%?
2006 was a great year, but that's a horrific regression.

For his career, LHB his 300 with a 390 OBP. This really shouldn't even be close.

Sheet1
Year BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+ BB%PA K%PA HR%PA K/BB G IP ERA *ERA+
2001 0.276 0.358 0.421 0.779 0.32 106 11% 15% 1.1% 1.37 7 39.3 4.58 116
2002 0.28 0.349 0.44 0.789 0.308 111 9% 16% 3.2% 1.81 32 185.3 4.52 106
2003 0.299 0.377 0.466 0.843 0.333 124 11% 15% 2.4% 1.35 32 181.3 5.11 97
2004 0.299 0.381 0.478 0.859 0.33 125 11% 14% 2.9% 1.32 33 201 5.51 89
2005 0.274 0.361 0.415 0.776 0.304 108 11% 14% 2.0% 1.21 20 122 5.02 95
2006 0.258 0.329 0.386 0.715 0.292 87 9% 16% 1.9% 1.67 32 212 3.78 130
2007 0.301 0.353 0.52 0.873 0.319 128 8% 16% 4.3% 2.09 19 99 6.45 68
2008 0.311 0.417 0.623 1.04 0.286 181 14% 10% 6.8% 0.70 3 14.3 8.79 49
Total 0.284 0.36 0.448 0.808 0.314 100 10% 15% 2.7% 1.49 178


#13 behindthepen


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Posted 21 April 2008 - 08:17 AM

Oh well, that Jennings game was much closer than it should have been.

GABBARD:
Career platoon splits:
RHB: .247 / .350 / .360 = .709
LHB: .243 / .336 / .350 = .686

Bases Empty: .222 / .318 / .304 = .622
Men On: .280 / .386 / .434 = .820

1st PA: .184 / .276 / .289 = .565
@Fenway: .162 / .238 / .234 = .472