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Useful pitching stat or no?


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#1 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:09 PM

So reading through the various discussions responding to Lester's last start and JT's bail-out made me wonder how the Sox pitchers stacked up in getting strikeouts vs. how often they put people on base. Then I thought about my old attempt on this board to measure how well different pitchers can get out of jams, and how the ability to get GIDP's and strikeouts work together. So I added GDP's to my first idea and now present: SO+GDP/H+BB+HBP. Yeah, I don't have a name for it yet...

2008 Red Sox
PitcherRawPct
Papelbon14/62.333
Beckett13/131.000
Okajima5/51.000
Matsuzaka29/26.897
Delcarmen7/8.875
Aardsma7/10.700
Buchholz10/15.667
Tavarez6/11.545
Wakefield10/20.500
Lopez3/8.375
Lester12/33.364
Corey3/10.300
Snyder1/4.250
Timlin1/5.200


I didn't see anything like it on the Stats Wiki page, but let me know if it duplicates some other common stat. I thought at first that maybe total bases would work out better as the divisor, but then decided that maybe it would be good enough to see how pitchers do at getting (cue Castig) "boy did [name] need that one here" outs.

It definitely works its way from "full confidence" to "oh s***" down the list of Sox pitchers I want to see in a big situation. But as in everything, the larger the sample size, the better...and I know that Timlin has like 1 IP or something ridiculously small. But hey, I'm on lunch break from work and don't have time to see how it works out over a season-long sample.

Let me know what you think (and feel free to add any data sets you might think come out interesting). I'm planning on updating this throughout the season, so we'll see how it goes.

#2 mabrowndog


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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:20 PM

No offense, because I know you're trying here, but...

* Tracking GDPs for any reason without also providing the number of GDP opportunities for context is pretty much worthless.

* That GDP's are highly defense- and baserunner-dependent makes them even more devoid of purpose when measuring a pitcher's performance.

* Including raw GDPs in some event-summation ratio, as if they carry the same weight as HBPs or walks in terms of value toward a win, is futile.

* GDPs occur too infrequently to carry any significant relative weight in the numerator vis a vis strikeouts, and in the formula relative to everything else but HBPs.

In sum, that stat doesn't tell us anything at all.

Edited by mabrowndog, 15 April 2008 - 12:21 PM.


#3 bowiac


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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:24 PM

What exactly are you trying to measure here?

Is this a "getting out of jams" type stat? Is it a general "how good a pitcher is someone" stat?

Generally, the first thing I look for with a stat is to see how well it actually measures what it's designed to measure. To evaluate that, I need to know what this is attempting to measure.

#4 mabrowndog


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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:28 PM

What exactly are you trying to measure here?

Is this a "getting out of jams" type stat? Is it a general "how good a pitcher is someone" stat?

Generally, the first thing I look for with a stat is to see how well it actually measures what it's designed to measure. To evaluate that, I need to know what this is attempting to measure.

Well, based on his statement:

"It definitely works its way from "full confidence" to "oh s***" down the list of Sox pitchers I want to see in a big situation."

I'm assuming it's intended to be some sort of confidence level index.

#5 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:37 PM

Instead of using GDP, why not infield ground outs? Or just infield outs? If you're just looking for a general confidence meter, limiting to GDP might skew the data toward pitchers with better defenses more so than just using infield outs, as a better defense is probably more likely to turn a tough DP than an average or poor defense.

If you're looking to see how pitchers get out of jams I'm not sure the above formula works too well, though. Unless you limit your strike out data to only those managed during said jams, the SO data is going to skew your results as many of (let's use Papelbon as an example) Papelbon's strike outs come in non-"jam" situations. I think if you can define what you're trying to measure a little better, someone here should be able to help you refine your formula a bit.

#6 samuelLsamson

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:39 PM

Well, based on his statement:

"It definitely works its way from "full confidence" to "oh s***" down the list of Sox pitchers I want to see in a big situation."

I'm assuming it's intended to be some sort of confidence level index.


I think that it seems to reflect the level of confidence I have in those pitchers fairly well, but didn't interpret that exactly as its intention. It seems to be a combined 'getting guys out quickly and getting guys out somehow when you can't get them out quickly' stat , or 'getting out of jams + not getting into jams' maybe. It's interesting - the GDP bit does need some more contextualising though.

#7 alydar

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 12:52 PM

I see what you're getting at. Wouldn't percentage of inherited runners scoring correlate pretty well with at least part of what you're going for? Obviously, this only deals with a pitcher's ability to clean up other people's messes, not their own, but at least for relievers, that is likely to be a good chunk of the "jam" sample size.

I suppose another way of going about it would be to take all the situations that you'd want to count as a jam (2nd 3rd 1 out, 3rd 0 out, etc.), for which we know what the league-average result is in terms of run expectancy, and see how well a pitcher actually performs.

#8 Bucknahs Bum Ankle


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Posted 15 April 2008 - 01:00 PM

We had a discussion in one of the Papelbon threads (I think) last season about pitcher "dominance". It would look something like K+IFFO (infield fly outs)/IP. Certainly making the denominator H+BB+HBP could also work. I tabulated it for some of the top closers and it closely correlated to K/9 as one might imagine. In retrospect, I'm not sure that adding infrequent events like GDP or IFFO is necessarily very useful. K/9 and K/BB ratio are already pretty good indicators of how confident you can be in a reliever and/or of their dominance.

#9 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 01:41 PM

What exactly are you trying to measure here?

Is this a "getting out of jams" type stat? Is it a general "how good a pitcher is someone" stat?

Generally, the first thing I look for with a stat is to see how well it actually measures what it's designed to measure. To evaluate that, I need to know what this is attempting to measure.


I guess I'm attempting to coordinate outs that are primarily pitcher-driven as a ratio of the how often that pitcher puts additional hitters on base. If it comes down to runners already on base, it would be trying to answer the question: is this guy more or less likely than some other guy to lock 'em down (Papelbon), clean up the mess (Beckett), hopefully wiggle out of it (Wakefield), or throw gasoline on the fire (Snyder). But I think it also could be used to help measure how well a pitcher can keep guys off the basepaths in the first place.

I personally tend to look at a combination of H/9, K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 when evaluating pitching stats. But I also find K/BB useful to rate command, so I looked into what other rate stats could logically be combined into comparable ratios. Answer -- not much there that could be helpful. Hopefully, though, this one will work somewhat toward rating how well a pitcher contains baserunners from advancing on ball-in-play events (whether his own or inherited).

Now obviously, a GDP is a "ball-in-play event", but sinkerball pitchers are much more likely to get that groundball when they need it (regardless of defense) than an extreme flyball guy. Getting that "extra" one out that doesn't allow advance of a baserunner is particularly important for groundball pitchers who don't have a high strikeout rate, which is why I decided to try adding its base number (rather than the total number of outs generated) to strikeouts. For most guys, I would expect HBP and GDP will be random variance and not particularly important, but for extreme groundball pitchers like Webb, Wang, or even Lopez, it may be a vital component to their success or failure. Also, because infield defense will factor both toward numerator (through GDP) as well as denominator (bleeders that get through), I'm aware this isn't perfect. But I think it might be good enough to merit refining.

And I definitely was thinking of adding IFFO to the numerator to help out pitchers like Wakefield (who seems to get a ton of popups), but decided the formula was too fiddly already to try to make it acount for knuckleballers.

#10 OttoC


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Posted 15 April 2008 - 03:09 PM

The ML average in 2007 for (SO+GDP)/(H+BB+HBP) was .5759, ranging from .494 (Rangers) to .673 (Cubs). Eyeballing the data shows the range to be roughly +/- 1.7/1.8 standard deviations.

#11 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 04:05 PM

Thanks for calculating that, OttoC! Segues nicely, because I just prepped your 2007 AL-leading Pitching Staff (small sample size caveats apply, of course).

2007 Red Sox
PitcherRawPct
Papelbon85/491.735
Okajima69/681.015
Buchholz25/251.000
Corey10/101.000
Delcarmen42/47.894
Beckett206/234.880
Matsuzaka218/284.768
Gabbard35/50.700
Donnelly19/28.679
Gagne22/35.629
Timlin38/63.603
Schilling109/190.574
Lester53/93.570
Lopez31/58.534
Snyder43/83.518
Wakefield120/259.463
Tavarez94/209.450
Pineiro25/56.446
Romero15/39.385
Hansack5/14.357
TOTAL1264/1894.667


Obviously, certain relievers were immediately placed in opportunities to induce the double play (Timlin 7, Okajima 6, Lopez 5), but that's just one way to skin a cat -- it would be interesting to see how many more opportunities they had than Papelbon (1 GDP), Delcarmen (1), or Gagne (0). Maybe I'll take care of that after I do my taxes -- anyone have this stuff on a spreadsheet that I could use to crunch?