42 replies to this topic

[Rough Carrigan]

Yes.
<expected rant begins>Okay, I'm a nut on this subject, fine. But Lester can go down to AAA and work in his curve and some kind of offspeed pitch that works off his fastball (changeup or splitter) and get rid of the god damn cut fastball<vitriol discharged>

[Bowlerman9]

Absolutely. Buchholz is ready to contribute every 5 days at the major league level. Lester is not. Even though he shows flashes of very good every now and then, Lester isnt going to give us the best chance to win every 5 days.

[OttoC]

With Lester having one remaining option, does it make sense to have Colon replace Lester, rather than replace Buchholz?

I'd been thinking about asking that question. Even before tonight, Buchholz had been pitching better.

[Pumpsie]

Absolutely. Buchholz is ready to contribute every 5 days at the major league level. Lester is not. Even though he shows flashes of very good every now and then, Lester isnt going to give us the best chance to win every 5 days.

Especially when Buchholz has demonstrated the ability to get past the fifth inning on occasion while Lester has not. Lester's going to burn out the pen singlehandedly if he stays up. So, I think that this is the best solution to the Colon "problem."

[yecul]

Buchholz should go down. Why? Because he is the better pitcher. Buchholz is important to the team's future and will have a presence on the team for many years to come.

Lester? He'll probably stick around a little while and sit at the back end of the rotation. He's cheap, a lefty, and home grown. That will buy him a bit of leeway.

In the short term he's likely not going to improve control. While the quality of his innings should get better the quantity of them will remain an issue.

This is detrimental to the ML team, but given the context of the team with its various issues and placement in the league I think that it's prudent to think of the next few years over this one.

If you want to just stick the best team out there then it's pretty clear that Lester isn't going to be a part of that team.

Edited by yecul, 14 April 2008 - 09:05 PM.

[SinCitySoxFan1973]

I say a resounding yes. IMO, Lester either lacks confidence or mental focus at times(or both), making him very frustrating to watch. In three of his four starts so far he has been mediocre.

[HighHeat]

I completely agree with the comments regarding Lester vs. Buchholz, but I'd like to see Colon stay healthy over a couple of starts before I "worry" about who he's going to replace in the rotation. I surmise that if and when Colon is ready the choice of who he supplants will be clear.

[Sportsbstn]

Lester just cant throw strikes consistently and creates his own problems with walks. He really isnt a big league pitcher at this point and if Colon is relatively healthy Lester should be back in the minors.

[RoDaddy]

Two words: Bruce Hurst. Hurst was a bad pitcher for what seemed like a long time, then turned things around and became one of the greatest left-handed pitchers in Sox history. He just needed time. They're somewhat different pitchers but overall, Lester has similar talent to Hurst. Let him pitch. He'll be fine.

[Rough Carrigan]

Two words: Bruce Hurst. Hurst was a bad pitcher for what seemed like a long time, then turned things around and became one of the greatest left-handed pitchers in Sox history. He just needed time. They're somewhat different pitchers but overall, Lester has similar talent to Hurst. Let him pitch. He'll be fine.

And Hurst's first couple years that he spent time with the Red Sox he pitched a significant portion of the year in Pawtucket. So, it wouldn't be so out of line with a Hurst career progression to send Lester down.

Bruce Hurst's career record from Baseball-reference.com

[URI]

Two words: Bruce Hurst. Hurst was a bad pitcher for what seemed like a long time, then turned things around and became one of the greatest left-handed pitchers in Sox history. He just needed time. They're somewhat different pitchers but overall, Lester has similar talent to Hurst. Let him pitch. He'll be fine.

Lester won't be sent to the Army, he'll be sent to Pawtucket. Do you mean "let him pitch at the major league level"?

If so, there is a huge difference between the 82 and 83 Sox and the 08 Sox...can you figure it out?

**Unrelated note** Hurst was actually bad in his 22-24 seasons, average-good in 25-26, bad in 27, and Hurst in 28-33. Lester is in his 24 season, and has been average.

[Ananti]

Another comparison is Al Leiter, who was also wild and didn't really have it figured out till he was 29.

That's really the problem, if a pitcher isn't going to figure it out til then, then you really should trade him and let him learn on the job at someone else's expense, and by the time he gets it, he's a FA and you can sign him again.

[jodyreeddudley78]

Especially when Buchholz has demonstrated the ability to get past the fifth inning on occasion while Lester has not. Lester's going to burn out the pen singlehandedly if he stays up. So, I think that this is the best solution to the Colon "problem."

Agreed. I understand Yecul's point about sending Buchholz down, but I can't help but think that a rotation of a not yet full strength Beckett, an inconsistent Dice K, a BB+/inning Lester, then Wakefield and Colon is going to put some pressure on the bullpen. Really, for now, I don't see how the bullpen isn't going to be taxed for the near future. Obviously, once Beckett is back to 100% and (if) Dice K can gain his consistency this will alleviate some of this pressure, as they should be our IP eating starters. But wouldn't it make more sense to send Lester down at least until the top two are near expected form?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Hurst has superficial similarities to Lester in terms of walk rate, but Hurst figured things out in terms of control in his third taste of the big leagues (and first full season) at age 24 in 1982.

Hurst BB rate:
1980: 4.64 over 31 IP
1981: 4.69 over 23 IP
1982: 3.07 over 117 IP
1983: 2.64 over 211 IP


But Lester, while having a similar BB rate to Hurst over his first 2 seasons in the bigs, hasn't yet made the progress on his control that Hurst did:
Lester BB rate:
2006: 4.77 over 81.3 IP
2007: 4.48 over 63 IP
2008: 6.75 over 20.3 IP so far.

It is, of course, early yet.

Lester doesn't look like he should be in The Show at this point and his control issues haven't progress one inch since being initially recalled from the minors. I'm all for having patience with him over the very long haul, but if/when Colon is ready to pitch it should be Lester getting returned to the minors. He still lacks all command of the strike zone and he will kill the bullpen with his typical 10 runners over 4 innings outings.

[DJnVa]

It's worth noting that Colon has not begun throwing yet. It's entirely possible that by the time Colon gets another AAA start, Lester will have a 6 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K game on his resume and the drumbeat will sound that he's "turned it around". Like has been said, the flashes are there (innings 1-3 last night). If he puts 5 of those together in one game, this board will assume he's turned the corner.

[OttoC]

...but I can't help but think that a rotation of a not yet full strength Beckett, an inconsistent Dice K,

In spite of having a poor outing last night, Matsuzaka is 3 and 0 and the team, 4 and 0, in his starts. His ERA jumped all the way up to 2.70 but he still has only allowed 13 hits in 23.1 innings and he is averaging more than a strikeout per inning. I think the team can live with that kind of inconsistency.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I don't know, how good can we expect Colon to be? If we want to develop young players, I think you have to let them play, take some lumps, and learn on the job (a la Pedroia). Obviously, at a certain point you want to see progress and you aren't going to let one guy, especially a pitcher, kill the team but I don't think we are there yet with Lester. Will he learn better at this level or in Pawtucket? What does a demotion do to his psyche? Not questions I can answer, for sure, but I don't think he't totally ove rhis head and the signs are there, he's a work in progress.

Ultimately, Colon isn't that close to ready either so I think we will at least get 2 more starts out of Lester to see where we are at.

[yecul]

In spite of having a poor outing last night, Matsuzaka is 3 and 0 and the team, 4 and 0, in his starts. His ERA jumped all the way up to 2.70 but he still has only allowed 13 hits in 23.1 innings and he is averaging more than a strikeout per inning. I think the team can live with that kind of inconsistency.

Given the context of the discussion I think that Matsuzaka's inning total thus far is the relevant point. We're not just talking about quality. Quantity is also an issue. Matszuaka's ip/start: 5, 6.2, 6.2, 5. I don't think he's a problem and I doubt anyone else does either, but it bears mentioning I suppose.

Regarding Colon over Lester, I think that you can sub in any other name for Colon. Tavarez, for example. Ok I guess that's the end of the list.

The point of letting a player go through his lumps is a good one. However, as has been said in this thread for those who chose to read and comprehend, is that there has to be an ends to the means. The question now is not when Lester will become competent but whether that is even an attainable goal in the near future (say, 1-3 years). I think that is hugely in question right now and very very far from a given.

[GreyisGone]

He's 24, you have to let him take his lumps. If you're going to give up on a 24 year old kid on April 15th, you might as well trade all your pitching prospects. They take time to develop. I know it is a remarkable idea, but he, like a lot of young pitchers, could improve the more experience he gets.

[Paul M]

Colon could be a month away, though, so Lester might have plenty of time. Before last night, I would have said no, and I'm as dubious about Lester as anyone on this site. But, he just fell apart last night and looked like he wasn't sure what to do. And Lester will have his good days, and maybe even great days, but it's just hard to know when. Of course, Bartolo Colon is a gigantic tease and he's not been able to hold up as a regular starter either. Buchholz will need some extra care, so maybe they can come up with a way to manage this trio in the most optimal fashion.

For me, Lester is not going to be a #1 or #2--very, very few lefties are--but it's not like he's complete crap if he's Randy Wolf (hoepfully minus the arm injuries). But, would it even make sense to think about a deal for Salty from Texas? Texas needs pitching and likes Lester a lot. Just a thought.

[jodyreeddudley78]

In spite of having a poor outing last night, Matsuzaka is 3 and 0 and the team, 4 and 0, in his starts. His ERA jumped all the way up to 2.70 but he still has only allowed 13 hits in 23.1 innings and he is averaging more than a strikeout per inning. I think the team can live with that kind of inconsistency.

Not to turn this into a Dice K thread(we already have a very good one) I think you are ignoring some of his peripherals when boiling down his 08 line to ERA and K/9.

Game 1 A's 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K
Game 2 A's 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Game 3 Tigers 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
Game 4 NYY 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 BB, 2 K

While I agree that you have to be pleased with the overall results four game into the season there are some minor concerns. While the two starts where he ate up 6.2 IP are great(hopefully the standard going forth), that still leaves the other two starts where he was only able to go 5. I realize that those signify quality starts, but you have to believe that the Sox would like their #2 starter to consistently go 6+ IP, especially in light of the coversation going on in this thread. The Sox are likely going to be relying on two young pitchers while mixing in a relatively unknown quantity(for this season at least) in Colon for the rest of the year. That would leave one to believe that the starts from these three(Colon, Buchholz, Lester) are going to be bullpen heavy, often to the tune of four or more innings, certainly three plus more often than not. I'm not trying to downplay what Dice K has done so far, but to call him the model of consistency after four starts is a little much.

edit: I'm a slow typer, so I think Yecul pretty much covered it.

Edited by jodyreeddudley78, 15 April 2008 - 08:53 AM.

[yecul]

He's 24, you have to let him take his lumps. If you're going to give up on a 24 year old kid on April 15th, you might as well trade all your pitching prospects. They take time to develop. I know it is a remarkable idea, but he, like a lot of young pitchers, could improve the more experience he gets.

Further proof that actually reading a thread before posting in it is always a good idea.

Why don't you read the posts and see how people are arguing for Buchholz to remain in the rotation. Then do me a favor and do a check on Buchholz's age.

After doing that you go ahead and ponder your post and decide if maybe, just maybe, you were being lazy in your desire to defeat the opposition on this matter and that your transfer of opinions on Lester to all young pitchers is horribly wrong and misguided.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Lurker Fireball Fred checks in:

I agree with your conclusions, but I’d note that the age comparison may be unfair to Lester, who after all suffered a severe setback in his development. Under the circumstances, Lester is still a good possibility to become an outstanding lefty starter. Bear in mind that Hurst didn’t achieve just adequate control – it became the key to his game.

What Hurst did have that Lester doesn’t , it seems to me, was one really outstanding pitch to built on. Once Hurst got his curve under control, he could mix in the fastball and slider. A starter may have one plus-plus pitch but not enough to go with it (Beckett until ’07, Clemens ’91-’96), or he may have plenty of pitches but no reliable “out pitch.” (The latter seems to me to be Matsuzaka’a problem – my impression is that he throws an awful lot of two-strike pitches, and that a high proportion of his “extra” pitches are foul balls.)

What’s very much in Lester’s favor is that his fastball, though not great, is very good. My hope is that he’ll be able to put the package together successfully within a couple of years.

Fireball Fred (lurker)

[TheYaz67]

Paul M

Colon could be a month away, though, so Lester might have plenty of time.

Don't we have to decide on bringing Colon up by May 1st? Can't he sign with someone else if we don't, or am I confused on this? My gut tells me that we need to stick with Lester over the long term, but my head tells me that the short term effect his 4-5 inning starts are going to have on the bullpen will not be helpful....

[Cuzittt]

Don't we have to decide on bringing Colon up by May 1st? Can't he sign with someone else if we don't, or am I confused on this?

Colon can OPT OUT of his contract anytime after May 1st (assuming he is not on the 25 man roster and assuming that May 1st is the date in his contract). However, if he is legitimately injured, I don't see any reason to believe he will opt out.

[Hairps]

Bartolo Colon still hadn’t been given clearance to begin throwing, though Francona suggested that was imminent. Colon remains sidelined with a slight oblique strain. Francona said that the pitcher would need about a week or 10 days after he begins throwing to reclaim his place in the Pawtucket rotation. …

http://www.projo.com...v6.3aab50d.html

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Colon can OPT OUT of his contract anytime after May 1st (assuming he is not on the 25 man roster and assuming that May 1st is the date in his contract). However, if he is legitimately injured, I don't see any reason to believe he will opt out.

Well, if the oblique strain is healed and he is throwing well, as he did earlier in the spring, I'm pretty sure somebody will offer him a lot more money than the Red Sox did. I think not opting out would be pretty dumb from a financial standpoint.

[Kevin Youkulele]

Well, if the oblique strain is healed and he is throwing well, as he did earlier in the spring, I'm pretty sure somebody will offer him a lot more money than the Red Sox did. I think not opting out would be pretty dumb from a financial standpoint.

Good point. If necessary to hold onto him, they could probably call him up and immediately DL him on May 1, assuming he isn't stretched out by then (likely to be the case, or at least close enough for government work, given his current status in recovering from the strain). I believe they will need a transient roster hole for this maneuver (anyone know for sure? Can you purchase a contract and immediately DL without ever occupying a 25-man spot?), which presumably could be available when one of the DLed infielders comes back, or they could option Lowrie if push comes to shove and then yank him back up using the DL exception to the 10 day rule.

[Cuzittt]

Well, if the oblique strain is healed and he is throwing well, as he did earlier in the spring, I'm pretty sure somebody will offer him a lot more money than the Red Sox did. I think not opting out would be pretty dumb from a financial standpoint.

And if all of this is the case, the Red Sox are going to put him on the 25 man roster. If he is healthy, the Sox and Colon will decide together on a rehab plan which gets him to the Red Sox as soon as possible. If he isn't healthy, there is no reason to opt out. Right now, all if this is theoretical fretting.

[PedroSpecialK]

And if all of this is the case, the Red Sox are going to put him on the 25 man roster. If he is healthy, the Sox and Colon will decide together on a rehab plan which gets him to the Red Sox as soon as possible. If he isn't healthy, there is no reason to opt out. Right now, all if this is theoretical fretting.

I disagree that there's no reason to opt out if he isn't healthy. Teams have seen his velocity return (to some extent), and someone like the Mets would probably be more than willing to throw a guaranteed $5m contract at him or something - he can simply rehab in their system until he's ready. Why stay with the Red Sox when he's got an option to make more money elsewhere?

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 16 April 2008 - 12:06 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why stay with the Red Sox when he's got an option to make more money elsewhere?

Sure, if that's the case...but there's no real reason to think that the Mets or any other team is suddenly going to want to give Colon a whole lot more than they were a few months ago. I don't think he's really shown that much to date. The primary reason, I would suspect, that teams weren't all that interested is his health and he's currently hurt.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

And if all of this is the case, the Red Sox are going to put him on the 25 man roster. If he is healthy, the Sox and Colon will decide together on a rehab plan which gets him to the Red Sox as soon as possible. If he isn't healthy, there is no reason to opt out. Right now, all if this is theoretical fretting.

It's not just a healthy/not-healthy binary. There's a big middle ground where he's not ready to pitch in a major league game but where he's shown enough progress to be worth way more on the open market than he's currently receiving. In that case, which is not unlikely at all, the Sox will have a tough decision.

[smastroyin]

It's not just a healthy/not-healthy binary. There's a big middle ground where he's not ready to pitch in a major league game but where he's shown enough progress to be worth way more on the open market than he's currently receiving. In that case, which is not unlikely at all, the Sox will have a tough decision.

I don't think it's that tough. The Red Sox have been evaluating him and have plenty of money. If they think he is worth something then they will negotiate with him. Honestly I don't see Colon's brief spurts of physical acumen really have changed the equation that much. Teams could have had him for free two months ago and now they are going to throw down big money to lure him away because of a couple spring training starts and a start or two in Pawtucket? I think this is what people are saying.

Honestly I think the Sox value their roster flexibility and depth enough that they would rather pay Colon, even up to something like $5 MM, to stay than give him a roster spot just to keep him around. If he goes, it will largely be because they don't think he can help - right or wrong.

I don't know what Colon's contract language is, but I am going to guess that bringing him up just to put him on the DL would have to be done with his consent, which pretty much means it is an ineffective maneuver. On the other hand, maybe his agent was dumb and/or Colon had too high of an opinion of his own chances.

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't think it's that tough. The Red Sox have been evaluating him and have plenty of money. If they think he is worth something then they will negotiate with him. Honestly I don't see Colon's brief spurts of physical acumen really have changed the equation that much. Teams could have had him for free two months ago and now they are going to throw down big money to lure him away because of a couple spring training starts and a start or two in Pawtucket? I think this is what people are saying.

Honestly I think the Sox value their roster flexibility and depth enough that they would rather pay Colon, even up to something like $5 MM, to stay than give him a roster spot just to keep him around. If he goes, it will largely be because they don't think he can help - right or wrong.

I don't know what Colon's contract language is, but I am going to guess that bringing him up just to put him on the DL would have to be done with his consent, which pretty much means it is an ineffective maneuver. On the other hand, maybe his agent was dumb and/or Colon had too high of an opinion of his own chances.

Point taken that it will probably not be that tough of a decision. They have money to burn and a few extra million is not a big deal if they really think he can help them. But I do think that it will probably involve that kind of process. He's probably not going to be ready by May 1 and he's probably going to opt out.

[86spike]

welll I guess Buchholz' performance tonight should tell everyone that we just don't know who Colon should theoretically replace.

[tims4wins]

welll I guess Buchholz' performance tonight should tell everyone that we just don't know who Colon should theoretically replace.

Well, they do have the option of slotting Colon into the rotation and moving Clay to the bullpen to replace Hoolian, but I doubt they would want to toy with Clay like that so early in the season. It would be the best move they could make in terms of talent on the major league roster, but could have negative consequences both this season (if they need Clay to start games later on in the season) and into the future (if Clay's development is at all stunted).

Edited by tims4wins, 16 April 2008 - 09:58 PM.

[TheYellowDart5]

welll I guess Buchholz' performance tonight should tell everyone that we just don't know who Colon should theoretically replace.

What Buchholz' performance tonight should tell us all is that having two young and inexperienced pitchers in the rotation is probably going to tax your bullpen pretty heavily.

Edited by TheYellowDart5, 16 April 2008 - 10:19 PM.

[Manny's Hammies]

What Buchholz' performance tonight should tell us all is that having two young and inexperienced pitchers in the rotation is probably going to tax your bullpen pretty heavily.

A lesson the Yankees learned about a week ago.

[tims4wins]

What Buchholz' performance tonight should tell us all is that having two young and inexperienced pitchers in the rotation is probably going to tax your bullpen pretty heavily.

Agreed. Add to this Dice K's pitch count issues, and we could be looking at a very serious problem. I think that the starters' inability to pitch deep into games is shaping up to be the Achilles Heel of this year's team. Hopefully the return of Schilling and/or Colon will help remedy this, but I'm pretty worried about this as of right now.

[yecul]

Buchholz has the pedigree and track record to suggest short and long term success. No one should expect consistency at this point and the whole success thing might not come for another season or two.

With Lester there is a serious question of his short and long term ability at the major league level. That is the issue at hand.

Colon is irrelevant to the discussion. He just barely started throwing. The ability of the young pitchers and the amount of investment (ie, ML innings) is what's most important.

Is Lester worthwhile? That is the question to ask. There's a long track record of concerns to point to even before the cancer.

You don't see them plugging ______ (fill in some crappy young pitcher with no talent) into the rotation, do you? No, because they know 1. he's not good now and 2. he won't be good later. There is no need for investment or discovery because you already know the answer.

Maybe we know the answer with Lester and just don't like what we think. Maybe.

I do look forward to the next good Lester start (of course it will happen, probably somewhat soon) so this thread can be bumped with a "see?".

[tims4wins]

Another thing to consider here is how many innings per start these guys can give them. In 31 ML starts, Lester is at almost exactly 5.25 IP/start (162 2/3 IP), whereas Buchholz has been able to give them 5.72 IP/start in 6 starts (34 1/3 IP). Of course, this is a very small sample size for Buchholz, and the no hitter is skewing his numbers; without that game, he drops to a mere 5.06 IP/start. However, I do think that Buchholz is more likely to consistently give them more innings per start, especially as he gains more experience.

Lester has given the Sox 6 or more IP in 13 of his 31 starts, but 7 or more IP in only 3 of his 31 starts.