[yecul]

Discussion has been slow and I don't want to read about Buckner anymore.

Jon Lester. How good is he? On the one hand he's only 24 and beat cancer and all that. On the other...

K/9


BB/9


K/BB


HR/9


WHIP


We probably didn't need all those posted but I kept trying to find one that put him in a reasonably good light. I guess he's solid at getting K's but nothing else says he's average let alone above average.

And to the eye he throws too many pitches seemingly getting deep into the count against everyone. There's not a lot of "dominance" being shown.

Note that this is about the '08 season. I think there is enough there to expect him to improve over the course of 2-3 years or so.

People had concerns about him this offseason. He's had a couple starts now. It's too early to say he's definitely one way or the other, so let's go over impressions so far and expectations for the near and distant future.

[Foulkey Reese]

It's maddening to watch him lose his mechanics on the mound and just be completely unable to throw a strike. His four pitch walk to Pudge last night was the perfect example of that. Pudge was dying to swing at something, but Lester was just totally unable to throw a pitch anywhere near the strike zone during the at bat.

He seems to lose his release point at random times during the game more than any pitcher in recent memory.

I actually thought that he had a nice cutter and a decent curve going last night, he just couldn't put the ball where he wanted it which has obviously been his big problem for a while now.

This post has been edited by Foulkey Reese: 10 April 2008 - 08:53 AM

[Rudy Pemberton]

It seems like he has starts like the one last night where he just can't get swings and misses. He jumped ahead of guys but then they fouled a bunch of pitches off, and he'd end up losing them (or at least it seemed that way). Other times, he has starts like the one against Oakland where he is pretty dominant and getting K's. I don't know what to make of it; is it just a young pitcher or something else? Ultimately, I do think this may be a year where we will have to put up with a 4.60-4.80 ERA with the chance that he's a lot better in the next few years, of course sometimes these guys don't get better.

At the end of the day, I think the Schilling injury is just so damaging. The rotation is a lot more fragile now, and doesn't have a lot of guys that can be counted on to go deep into games. The bullpen isn't going to be as good as it was last year, if it manages to be average or worse, than the team could be in a lot of trouble.

I do think the team needs to remain committed to giving Lester and Clay 50 starts.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Quickly taking a look at his minor league stats, he's never really made the slightest bit of progress on his BB rate. Every time he's pitched in a full season in his career, his BB rate has remained high:

2003: 3.74 over 106 IP at Single A
2004: 3.69 over 90 IP at High A
2005: 3.46 over 148 IP at Double A
2006: 4.82 over 46 IP at Triple A
4.76 over 81 IP at MLB
2007: 3.89 over 71 IP at Triple A
4.45 over 63 IP at MLB

Total rates:
Minors: 3.78 BB per 9, 8.31 K per 9
Majors: 4.61 BB per 9, 6.86 K per 9

Frightening but probably meaningless comparison:
Matt Young. Majors: 4.27 BB per 9, 6.48 K per 9.

While he's still a young pitcher, I think what we've seen so far from Lester in his MLB career is pretty much well established. He's never really been able to command the strike zone the way we'd like. His BB rate was high before the cancer issue, and it's remained high after the cancer issue. As he gets further away from the lymphoma period in his life it's fair to ignore any blaming of his control issues on that problem.

His K rate was pretty steady in the minors at 8-9 Ks per 9, but that's dropped to 6.86 in his major league appearances while his BB rate went up.

It's pretty interesting to me that the Sox as an organization have been so committed to having their hitters be in control and aware of the strike zone, but don't seem to require the same from some of their pitchers. Lester's never been a control artist and yet they are counting on him quite heavily this season.

[Kevin Youkulele]

yecul, on Apr 10 2008, 09:47 AM, said:

Discussion has been slow and I don't want to read about Buckner anymore.

Jon Lester. How good is he? On the one hand he's only 24 and beat cancer and all that. On the other...

We probably didn't need all those posted but I kept trying to find one that put him in a reasonably good light. I guess he's solid at getting K's but nothing else says he's average let alone above average.

And to the eye he throws too many pitches seemingly getting deep into the count against everyone. There's not a lot of "dominance" being shown.

Note that this is about the '08 season. I think there is enough there to expect him to improve over the course of 2-3 years or so.

People had concerns about him this offseason. He's had a couple starts now. It's too early to say he's definitely one way or the other, so let's go over impressions so far and expectations for the near and distant future.

My general impression of him, ignoring the small sample of 2008:
He has lots of trouble throwing strikes consistently. This is what stands between him and an above average starter. Control has been problematic for him for long enough that it's hard to expect it to improve in the near term. Every once in a while he'll have a start where he is hitting his spots and he'll look really good; more consistent starts like what he did in the WS would seem to paint a nice picture of his potential.

What I don't know is whether his control problem is fixable. The longer it lasts, the less likely that it is.

***

I was at the game last night. It actually seemed a lot like an '07 Matsuzaka outing, where he looked pretty good but then totally lost it for one inning, giving up 4 runs. It seemed like he still had plenty of deep counts in the other innings, although IIRC his pitch count going into the 4th inning was in a pretty good spot--the only 3 ball counts in the first 3 innings were on the two walks, and there was only one hit. In the 4th the only batter not to get a 3-ball count was Renteria, who socked a 2-1 pitch into the gap for a 2 run double. He then recovered in the 5th and gave up only a single, although he did fall behind 2-1 and 2-0 to the first two batters who then F9'd and 6-3'd.

[Razor Shines]

One positive thing I've noticed, he does seem to be getting more ground balls, maybe because of the use of his new two-seam pitch.

The 2008 data is still a tiny sample, but:



He was helped by ground ball outs and double plays in the win against Oakland. If he can continue to do this, he'll get himself out of some of the jams he gets himself into via the BB.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

I've never been that high on Lester, even as he was coming through the minors, because his control problems have always been documented. Combine that with the reasonable expectation that his K rate would drop once he reached the majors, and I've never seen anything other than a back-of-the-rotation starter. He's young, left-handed and can throw hard, so there's some value there, but I think he's going to be a very pedestrian pitcher and it has everything to do with the walks he issues.

[yecul]

The control issues may or may not lead to quality issues. He has shown that he can be effectively wild and ineffectively wild. The one constant, however, will be a complete inability to provide innings and that is going to be a lasting and impactful for the season.

Every back end of the pen is going to have trouble. Leaning more on Tavarez and Corey/Aardsma and Lopez is a bad thing.

And I think that the above puts it well. He "looks" like a legit pitcher but the reality is average. Maybe average.

This post has been edited by yecul: 10 April 2008 - 09:15 AM

[Paul M]

Thanks for starting this thread, Yecul. I was thinking about this but wasn't brave enough to start it on my own, but we've had a serious dearth of actual baseball talk in a long time. I have never really bought into Lester as a bona fide elite pitching prospect. I just don't think he'll be consistent enough with his command. I admire his spirit and will and his performance to close out the World Series last year was damn impressive. But, I see Randy Wolf as a comp. A decent #3/4 starter, and I would have been awfully tempted to make that deal with Minnesota given the revenues we have, but who knows what we really turned down last winter.

I've said it before, but it bears repeating and that's we must get 175 good innings out of Lester. He's the difference-maker to me, and obviously I'm a little worried. This came up in the AL East thread, but pitchers under 25 like Lester, and even Clay, are going to struggle and teams relying on 2-3 of them are at risk. Most of the division is in that boat, though. I don't have the quatitative evidence handy, but my prior is that young lefties face an even bigger uphill battle. But, I am honestly not sure what we have here as he's dealt with some things that have to considered in the overall assessment. It's just I was not buying the whole package even back in 2005.

[Rough Carrigan]

I wonder if the choice of the cut fastball as his primary alternative to his 4 seam fastball is part of the problem. Yes, I don't like the pitch that much in general, but bear with me. His control of it isn't that good. It's too close in speed to his fastball to avoid guys focusing on one being able to hit the other.

We heard all about him being so good in AA because of this great cut fastball. Well, what if he can be great at AA with it but major league hitters will just watch it go out of the strike zone for a ball? What if major league hitters don't have to be quite so totally geared for his fastball and can adjust a bit and hit that cutter? I also wonder how good it is to try and throw two pitches with only slightly different release points. He's got a really nice looking curve but, for whatever reason seems reluctant to throw it, a fact that won't be helped by him hanging the one Thames hit out. I wish he'd go more with a Bruce Hurst style repertoire, fastball curveball and the occasional change or splitter. Does Lester even throw a change?

[NomarRS05]

During the off-season we had Gammons saying he was going to add another 4-5 MPH to his fastball, how he put on 20 lbs of muscle and he's never felt better. So when he was throwing his fastball in the 90-91 MPH range last night, it was a little unsettling. Even with the action on his cutter, pitchers who don't throw at least 93 MPH or so can't get away with missing their spots as much as he does.

They also can't last deep into games if they can't consistently get their #2/#3 pitches over for strikes. So yeah, the control problems have always been well-documented and there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe that's going to change in the near future. I guess I'm dissapointed and a little concerned that his velocity isn't in the mid-90's.

[TomRicardo]

yecul, on Apr 10 2008, 10:13 AM, said:

The control issues may or may not lead to quality issues. He has shown that he can be effectively wild and ineffectively wild. The one constant, however, will be a complete inability to provide innings and that is going to be a lasting and impactful for the season.

And I think that the above puts it well. He "looks" like a legit pitcher but the reality is average. Maybe average.

I don't think he ever looks average. He either looks good or terrible. He will be crusing along and you start thinking, damn i was wrong about the kid, and then some guy will foul off a couple pitches which leads to Lester completely losing the strike zone only to find it again by throwing an absolute meatball over the plate. The walks always come in bunches. He needs to find a pitch he feels comfortable throwing a strike with. It should be his cutter but he begins to absolutely ignore it when he is in trouble throwing errant fastballs. Then again he could be trying to throw his cutter and just ending up throwing terrible fastballs.

This post has been edited by TomRicardo: 10 April 2008 - 09:30 AM

[Foulkey Reese]

NomarRS05, on Apr 10 2008, 10:25 AM, said:

During the off-season we had Gammons saying he was going to add another 4-5 MPH to his fastball, how he put on 20 lbs of muscle and he's never felt better. So when he was throwing his fastball in the 90-91 MPH range last night, it was a little unsettling. Even with the action on his cutter, pitchers who don't throw at least 93 MPH or so can't get away with missing their spots as much as he does.

I'm a huge Gammons fan, but you really can't take anything that he says about his "special players" seriously.

Having said that Lester does look like he bulked up a bit, but that's not going to help him find his release point and throw strikes.

This post has been edited by Foulkey Reese: 10 April 2008 - 09:29 AM

[smastroyin]

Part of his problem is that he still doesn't have the four seam fastball back that he can throw by hitters.

Why is this important? Because basically major league umpires as a whole have refused to call a third strike on any pitch that isn't a fastball or changeup over the middle of the plate. But when you throw a 92 mph fastball with little movement, as a lefty, to any right handed batter in this league, it will get crushed. Anything that breaks, unless you are a veteran who has earned it, is going to be called a ball. That just seems to be the way it is. Lester threw about 8 strikes to Guillen last night before walking him. Andy Pettite would have had the strikeout on the 1-2 pitch. But he's not, he's Jon Lester so they are balls. The Thames HR I'm not going to worry about too much, he guessed right on a curveball and lofted it over the monster. That happens sometimes in this league. Unless Lester is tipping the curve or falling into patterns, I think that's just something you accept and move on. The most concerning sequence was everything after the missed 2-2 pitch to Guillen, when he was visibly upset that another curveball was called a ball. The first pitch to Renteria could also have been called a strike but wasn't and that seemed to upset him as well.

Lester used his curveball more last night. I assume this was a plan because of the way the Tigers typically crush lefties. The plan seemed to work outside of the one inning, lots of really weak contact from the Tiger hitters. We all know that the Red Sox are much more interested in the long term of the season than the short term of a single game and even though they all count it would not surprise me if they instructed Lester to do certain things even if some of his other pitches may have been working better.

One thing I am curious about and it would be nice if someone would ask Farrell if the Sox are intentionally trying to get him to "pitch to contact" to keep his pitch count down. I saw him quite a few times in the minors and never saw people able to consistently spoil pitches like we have seen against him this year. It could just be that post lymphoma/back injury/whatever his stuff isn't as good. That is a real possibility and he wouldn't be the first pitcher to have that happen, although the rhetoric from the Sox all around is that they don't think this is the case. Maybe they are asking him to take something off of his breaking stuff so that it ends up in the strike zone more. It would be interesting to hear Farrell's take.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Lefties who can locate pitches, even without "stuff", like Jamie Moyer can have long and productive major league careers.

I think Bill James was right when he said Jon Lester's ceiling is Ted Lilly.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

smastroyin, on Apr 10 2008, 10:29 AM, said:

It could just be that post lymphoma/back injury/whatever his stuff isn't as good. That is a real possibility and he wouldn't be the first pitcher to have that happen, although the rhetoric from the Sox all around is that they don't think this is the case.

It's been what, 15 months since his last cancer treatment? At what point can we move beyond discussing and possibly blaming cancer for his issues? That's an honest question. It seems to me he gets discussed by the MSM more as an inspiring tale instead of a young player.

Like I noted above, he had noticable control issues before the cancer scare. His BB rates have been roughly constant throughout his career.

[smastroyin]

Smiling Joe Hesketh, on Apr 10 2008, 10:32 AM, said:

It's been what, 15 months since his last cancer treatment? At what point can we move beyond discussing and possibly blaming cancer for his issues? That's an honest question.

Like I noted above, he had noticable control issues before the cancer scare. His BB rates have been roughly constant throughout his career.

I'm talking about the stuff, SJH, and I'm really clear about that since I said it twice. Stuff and command are not the same thing.

I understand people didn't see this guy as a 21 year old like I did and people base their opinions on what happens in the majors and what they have seen themselves. The 21 year old Lester threw a 95 mph 4 seam fastball with regularity and his curveball was electric. I'm not seeing that now. Did something happen in between? Yes - he had a lymphoma scare and a car accident that brought on back problems. There may be other things going on but when there is an obvious variable that was switched, why should we ignore it just because it was a couple years ago?

This is why I would love it hear what Farrell has to say. Does Lester not throw the big four seamer because he can't find the handle on it enough to suit their tastes? Every pitching coach in the league would rather have a well spotted 92 mph fastball than a wild 95 mph fastball, so it would make sense to me that they are working him to find the control rather than rely on his stuff. But, I can't disregard the fact that his stuff may be gone and may not come back - cancer related or no, which is the point I am getting at.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

smastroyin, on Apr 10 2008, 10:37 AM, said:

I understand people didn't see this guy as a 21 year old like I did and people base their opinions on what happens in the majors and what they have seen themselves. The 21 year old Lester threw a 95 mph 4 seam fastball with regularity and his curveball was electric.

How often did you get a chance to see him with that stuff? I'm sure you saw him more often than I did in the minors, but when he was at Portland I never saw stuff THAT good. I did see him get pulled after 3 innings once because he was already at 75 pitches. I wonder if he was just as inconsistent with his stuff back then as he is now.

[OCD SS]

I've brought it up a few times in the game threads, but I think his walk rate mirrors what seems to happen to a lot of LHP with good stuff. It seems to be a historical trend that they don't improve their command until much later in their careers.

Randy Johnson is a pretty good example of this (the trend jumps right out in his stat line). While Lester doesn't have the stuff of a Big Unit, I think we have to expect that his command isn't going to improve overnight, but that's really the only issue. I don't think anyone is really questioning his stuff, just his command of it (and I don't worry too much about his velocity being down on a cold night like last night).

Lester is a perfectly acceptable #4 starter who has the potential to get much better with a few years experience. He's only being asked to be a #2 because of injuries to the rest of the rotation, and I find it hard to expect more from him because of external circumstances.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

OCD, IIRC Randy Johnson's control improved because he made a big change in his mechanics on the recommendation of Nolan Ryan. He changed from landing on the heel of his foot to landing on the front part, which improved his control dramatically.