65 replies to this topic

[philly sox fan]

Lopez WPA year-by-year (anything positive is above average):

1.12, 0.32, -0.07, 0.78, 0.10 and currently 3rd in the bullpen at 0.22.

Riske: -0.14, 2.67, .08, -.05, -.21, .13, .31 so far this year.

Riske total last 3 seasons (i.e., since the year of the trade) : 0.23.

Lopez total: 1.10.

Is it then safe to assume that non-WPA based comparisons would not make Lopez appear better than Riske?

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Lopez WPA year-by-year (anything positive is above average):

1.12, 0.32, -0.07, 0.78, 0.10 and currently 3rd in the bullpen at 0.22.

Riske: -0.14, 2.67, .08, -.05, -.21, .13, .31 so far this year.

Riske total last 3 seasons (i.e., since the year of the trade) : 0.23.

Lopez total: 1.10.

Perhaps your response ought to be directed at the person who thinks a Javier Lopez clone can be easily acquired "on the cheap." I was simply stating that it cost more than "on the cheap" to acquire him, and probably would again in this market.

That said, one must ask oneself, if the Sox could trade Lopez for Riske right now, would you pull the trigger?

Incidentally, most of Lopez's recent run of 1.10 WPA that you cite since the trade comes from his 16.2 inning 2006 that generated the 0.78 cited above. I don't know all the intricacies of the metric, but it seems like that number describes a good little run that Lopez had when first arrived, when he was getting both lefties and righties out effectively back then in 06, as opposed to more recently in 07, when he has been used as a LOOGY and has actually been less effective against lefties.

Edited by The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa, 15 April 2008 - 12:05 AM.

[Eric Van]

Is it then safe to assume that non-WPA based comparisons would not make Lopez appear better than Riske?

Nope, I just looked first at the metric that captures value at the deepest level. But I do know that Lopez looks better by WPA than by ERA almost every year, because he has a legitimate skill at getting out of extreme jams in high leverage situations. I think that will be true of any decent pitcher who gets a ton of GDPs and is used by their manager in situations where one is desperately needed.

[TomRicardo]

Nope, I just looked first at the metric that captures value at the deepest level. But I do know that Lopez looks better by WPA than by ERA almost every year, because he has a legitimate skill at getting out of extreme jams in high leverage situations. I think that will be true of any decent pitcher who gets a ton of GDPs and is used by their manager in situations where one is desperately needed.

Except of course when you are using a LOOGY and three young pitchers adjusting to MLB with some control issues. Then a roster spot giving you only 40 2/3 IP is not that valuable as the rest of the bullpen tires.

[yecul]

Nope, I just looked first at the metric that captures value at the deepest level. But I do know that Lopez looks better by WPA than by ERA almost every year, because he has a legitimate skill at getting out of extreme jams in high leverage situations. I think that will be true of any decent pitcher who gets a ton of GDPs and is used by their manager in situations where one is desperately needed.

While he has certainly done the claim about a legitimate skill is something that should be illustrated rather than simply stated.

[Frisbetarian]

Is it then safe to assume that non-WPA based comparisons would not make Lopez appear better than Riske?

Since Riske left Boston he has thrown more innings than Lopez has here (111.1 - 61.1), has a higher K/9 (6.4 - 5.7), a lower BB/9 (3.7 - 4.6), and a slightly lower H/9 (7.8 - 7.9). Also, Riske's ERA+ over that span is just under 180, while Lopez' is 155.

[nazz45]

Since Riske left Boston he has thrown more innings than Lopez has here (111.1 - 61.1), has a higher K/9 (6.4 - 5.7), a lower BB/9 (3.7 - 4.6), and a slightly lower H/9 (7.8 - 7.9). Also, Riske's ERA+ over that span is just under 180, while Lopez' is 155.

Riske also posted a Fair RA of 2.98 to Lopez' 4.26 mark last year all while having a higher leverage index vis-a-vis the LOOGY. Mind you, I prefer WPA but also wonder about the small sample sizes for a lefty specialist that logs 40 (batter specific) innings a season. Sometimes the value in innings, depending on the quality, is greater.

I also irrationally dislike all LOOGYs except The Great and Masterful George Sherill. So, there's that.

Edited by nazz45, 15 April 2008 - 05:07 PM.

[Crazy Puppy]

If I'm Theo, I'm loathe to move Hansack off the 40-man if I can avoid it, and I really wouldn't want to give up on Kolb so quickly. Can Hansack and Martinez be readily sent down to Fort Myers for Extended Spring Training, or is there some super-secret minor league waiver system they'd have to pass through? If so, those moves along with Smith to AA would get it done without having to cut bait on Kolb just yet.

Hansack to the DL with a "right forearm contusion" to make room for Snyder on the PawSox roster.

[Cuzittt]

Hansack to the DL with a "right forearm contusion" to make room for Snyder on the PawSox roster.

Likely a valid injury, BTW. He left his last start after getting hit by a come-backer.

[Eric Van]

While he has certainly done the claim about a legitimate skill is something that should be illustrated rather than simply stated.

I simply meant that he has a legitimate skill for getting GDPs. He has had a better Win-equivalent RA (the RA you'd expect given his WPA, LI, and IP) than Fair RA virtually every year of his career, with a seemingly significant career difference. Whether this is entirely due to use by the manager (i.e, perhaps any guy with an excellent GDP rate who is brought into a lot of two-on and bases-full jams with 1 out ends up with this differential) or due to having been "clutch" is a difficult question, let alone the question of whether any such "clutch" was real or random, which in this small a sample is probably impossible to determine.

Whether it makes sense to use a bullpen spot for a LOOGY is a different question. Calculating the impact caused by asking every other guy in the bullpen to pitch more would be part of the process. But if a guy can compile the same WPA in 40 IP as another guy does in 70, they have been of equal value to the team minus the impact of the 30 extra IP demand on the rest of the pen.

[cannonball 1729]

I also irrationally dislike all LOOGYs except The Great and Masterful George Sherill. So, there's that.

Is there a reason you're referring to the Orioles' closer as a LOOGY?

Edited by cannonball 1729, 16 April 2008 - 04:40 AM.

[PedroSpecialK]

Is there a reason you're referring to the Orioles' closer as a LOOGY?

Perhaps because he should still by a LOOGY. From '05-'07:
v. left: .151/.220/.259
v. right: .257/.370/.342

Still an acceptable reliever against righties, but it's clear what he would be doing on a good team.

[cannonball 1729]

Perhaps because he should still by a LOOGY. From '05-'07:
v. left: .151/.220/.259
v. right: .257/.370/.342

Still an acceptable reliever against righties, but it's clear what he would be doing on a good team.

O.K. But here are his splits during his breakout year last year:

v. left: .156/.240/.289
v. right: .212/.284/.303

It wasn't a BABIP thing, either; he cut his walks drastically, which was always the main problem against righties.

[PedroSpecialK]

I'm not saying he didn't have a great year last year - he obviously did. I still don't think he's a good enough full-inning reliever to be used in the closer's role. Guess he won't be getting many innings considering how many save opps a team like Baltimore is going to have.

edit: And it kind of was a BABIP thing. His BABIP against righties last year was .241.

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 16 April 2008 - 02:12 PM.

[Hairps]

• Fizzled rumor of the week: When the Red Sox designated Kyle Snyder for assignment, trade rumors erupted all over the map, especially in places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. But, surprise -- Snyder cleared waivers, didn't get traded and wound up in the Red Sox's Triple-A outpost in Pawtucket.

"They had a lot of clubs looking at him, if you go back to the spring," said an executive of one team that dropped out early. "But our feeling was, we were looking for a substantial upgrade, and the way he was throwing, he wasn't a real upgrade."

"He was throwing 87, and his arm action wasn't real pretty," said a scout who turned in a negative report. "Plus, he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. It was obvious he didn't want to throw his fastball, and when he did throw it, he didn't throw it with any confidence. He just wasn't throwing well enough to where you'd go out of your way to make a deal for the guy."

http://sports.espn.g...;page=rumblings

[Diamond Don Aase]

Bryan Corey has elected for free agency.

http://www.beloblog...._becomes_f.html

Former Red Sox pitcher Bryan Corey has elected free agency instead of accepting his minor-league assignment. The right-hander was designated on April 11 after posting a 14.55 ERA in six appearances for Boston.

He was too beautiful for Hooligan Tavarez's world.