47 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

You know who deserves a ton of credit for the win? Youks.

He had the foresight to cut off Pedroia's relay from short CF after Emil Brown took the huge turn around second. Granted this is what MLB infielders are supposed to be able to do, but that play showed why his Gold Glove goes far beyond a 1.000 fielding percentage.

It was a disastrous decision by Brown, but without Youkilis's heads-up reaction, he'd have made it to third base.

[AlNipper49]

Pulling out this comment from Browndog... we were talking about having more post-game analysis in the main forum this year. Mark's post here perfectly captures what we're looking for - an intelligent observation on that game that likely will be overlooked by the media.

[bsj]

I have to go with Moss's magnificent four bagger in the 9th inning of play. I know its the easy selection, and may appear far too obvious for many, but often times the easy pick is quite simply the correct one. This young lad's 1st major league HR ties up the game in the 9th....while I agree that the defensive play by Mr. Youkilis was outstanding...do not get me wrong, the simple fact is, the Red Sox do not have the opportunity to win this game without the Moss HR.

As such I sincerely believe that the Moss home run is the correct selection of play of the game for the game this morning.

Edited by bsj, 25 March 2008 - 12:08 PM.

[Kevin Youkulele]

I have to go with Moss. I know its the easy pick. But sometimes the easy pick is just the right one. 1st major league HR ties up the game in the 9th?

Gotta go with Moss.

I hope it's OK to expand this to "key points in the game (that may be overlooked)". Someone in the game thread mentioned Ortiz's AB right before Manny's 1st 2-run double, where Blanton was forced to throw a lot of high-stress pitches when he was already on the ropes. It set up Manny as much as an out really could.

[absintheofmalaise]

You know who deserves a ton of credit for the win? Youks.

He had the foresight to cut off Pedroia's relay from short CF after Emil Brown took the huge turn around second. Granted this is what MLB infielders are supposed to be able to do, but that play showed why his Gold Glove goes far beyond a 1.000 fielding percentage.

It was a disastrous decision by Brown, but without Youkilis's heads-up reaction, he'd have made it to third base.

You need to give Pedroia equal credit for actually hitting his cut-off man too. Even though players learn this stuff form high school, and even earlier, on, many times you will see the cut-off man sail the ball over his head. It was a well executed defensive play all around.

[koufax32]

Fortunately, I'm on vacation so I got to watch the whole game this morning. I noticed a couple of things that I was hoping to point out today.

1) Dice-K: The change-up cometh. Well wasn't that a pleasant development? I was questioning the wisdom of adding the pitch when Steve Phillips was sounding its praises. It was a great audition anyway. The talk of the spring was that it would be a straight change. That sucker was moving today. He seems to have a slightly different arm angle/action than his 4 seamer. The newer 2 seamer however is what makes the change effective. I'm looking forward to the development of these two pitches. Now, if only he could figure out how to throw a breaking pitch without missing the plate by 4 feet we're all set! Maybe it's too optimistic or naive but I chalk up the first two innings to "must perform like a god" jitters.

2) Mike Lowell: If it ain't broke... Coming off his best year last year he stuck with what made him his money. On several swings (including the rope base hit) there was a conscious effort to go up the middle or opposite field. I'm not predicting a duplicate of last year but if he sticks with this approach why couldn't he continue at a .300 clip???

3) Manny: He's still a bad man. He was noticeably in better shape then I've ever seen him. The bat speed is back my friends. The bat speed is back. Unfortunately, so is the airheadedness, but the bat speed is back!

4) 161 to go.

[Madison33]

All in all this was a hell of a start to the season. I know, I know...one game in March and blah blah blah.

I really felt that any "rust" that could have manifested itself in the game did so on the part of the Athletics and not so much with the Sox.

While I can't argue with 'dog's point, seeing Dice-K buckle down after a couple of rough innings and really regain his control of the game was great too. Definitely worth waking up so early to watch.

[ZachCrouch]

You know who deserves a ton of credit for the win? Youks.

He had the foresight to cut off Pedroia's relay from short CF after Emil Brown took the huge turn around second. Granted this is what MLB infielders are supposed to be able to do, but that play showed why his Gold Glove goes far beyond a 1.000 fielding percentage.

It was a disastrous decision by Brown, but without Youkilis's heads-up reaction, he'd have made it to third base.

I don't know exactly how the Red Sox work their infield cuts/calls, but wouldn't this be Varitek's call to cut it off? On most baseball teams the catcher will make the call to cut before the ball gets to the plate. So, he might get some credit here too.

[TomRicardo]

I think it is significant to note that Snyder got the call over Tavarez today. I was shocked by this. Last season Tavarez always got the call over Snyder in closer games when a long reliever was required (though one could argue with a nine man bullpen there isn't a need for a long man).

[URI]

I have to go with Moss. I know its the easy pick. But sometimes the easy pick is just the right one. 1st major league HR ties up the game in the 9th?

Gotta go with Moss.

Stuff like this is going to make these threads either die, or morph into a clusterfuck as the season goes on. It's not player of the game, it's play. And this shouldn't be treated like a game thread extension.

[The Napkin]

You know who deserves a ton of credit for the win? Youks.

He had the foresight to cut off Pedroia's relay from short CF after Emil Brown took the huge turn around second. Granted this is what MLB infielders are supposed to be able to do, but that play showed why his Gold Glove goes far beyond a 1.000 fielding percentage.

Even better, he then hustled over to third base to cover the run down. The play was scored 9-4-3-5-6-3.

[loshjott]

The Jack Cust backwards K to end the 2nd. Credit Dice-K, Tek, or Rick Reed, but it's a candidate for play of the game.

We would have seen Tavarez at that point.

[Soxfan in Fla]

You need to give Pedroia equal credit for actually hitting his cut-off man too. Even though players learn this stuff form high school, and even earlier, on, many times you will see the cut-off man sail the ball over his head. It was a well executed defensive play all around.

All started with Moss (yes Moss played RF Steve Phillips, not Crisp). He got to the ball quickly, hit his cutoff man perfectly (DP) who hit his man perfectly and not only was Youk all over that play but EVERYONE got properly into that rundown.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Stuff like this is going to make these threads either die, or morph into a clusterfuck as the season goes on. It's not player of the game, it's play. And this shouldn't be treated like a game thread extension.

Well it never gets to that point without the HR so he has a valid point. Moss also hit what seemed like a pretty good pitch out of the park against a pretty solid closer.

[URI]

I don't know exactly how the Red Sox work their infield cuts/calls, but wouldn't this be Varitek's call to cut it off? On most baseball teams the catcher will make the call to cut before the ball gets to the plate. So, he might get some credit here too.

The catcher is supposed to make cut calls in the lower level, but I think once you hit the majors, they tend not too just because of the noise level. Even if Tek was yelling "Cut!!!" Youks might not have heard him.

That play was as close to team defense as you get in baseball. Moss and Pedrioa did well to hit cut off men, Youks covered third after the cut, and Lowell and Lugo executed the run down correctly. It wasn't flashy (it seems routine, but not when you consider all the moving parts involved [7 of the 9 field players]), but I like watching plays like that more than Ellsbury's leaping catch into the wall, or Lugo grabbing that liner.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Great observation by mabrowndog. Well-executed fundamental defense rarely looks dazzling, but in cases like this it makes a big difference - thanks for highlighting this.

And in the spirit of acknowledging the potentially overlooked, Javier Lopez and Bryan Corey came up huge today as well.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

The Jack Cust backwards K to end the 2nd. Credit Dice-K, Tek, or Rick Reed, but it's a candidate for play of the game.

The plays of the game were those that the A's did not make in the first two innings. They could have easily blown the game open the way DiceK was pitching.

Kudos to him for settling down afterwards though.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Fangraphs already has the data up from the game.

According to WPA, the moment with the highest WPA was Manny's double in the 10th.

I love fangraphs but I can't wait to get home and watch the game on Tivo.

[bsj]

Stuff like this is going to make these threads either die, or morph into a clusterfuck as the season goes on. It's not player of the game, it's play. And this shouldn't be treated like a game thread extension.

So from that statement I am assuming that the obvious play is never the correct one in your eyes? Or are you implying that " 1st major league HR ties up the game in the 9th?" did not sufficiently narrow down the Moss play that I was referring to? I'll concede the error in form by focusing on the player rather than the play in my sentence structure, but the play I was referring to was glaringly obvious. Do we really need to over think everything? Sometimes the easy answer is the right one. And sometimes an answer does not require a lengthy explanation to support it, regardless of how erudite we are trying to be. Nothing in the 10th inning happens if Moss doesn't hit that one out.

[mabrowndog]

So from that statement I am assuming that the obvious play is never the correct one in your eyes? Or are you implying that " 1st major league HR ties up the game in the 9th?" did not sufficiently narrow down the Moss play that I was referring to? I'll concede the error in form by focusing on the player rather than the play in my sentence structure, but the play I was referring to was glaringly obvious. Do we really need to over think everything? Sometimes the easy answer is the right one. And sometimes an answer does not require a lengthy explanation to support it, regardless of how erudite we are trying to be. Nothing in the 10th inning happens if Moss doesn't hit that one out.

I think what URI is pointing out is that Nip started this as a separate thread to break down specific plays from the game. So rather than just saying Moss's HR was one of the key plays (which is blatantly obvious), a breakdown of Moss's HR might be in order -- the type of pitch he hit, his swing mechanics, etc.

I'm not piling on here, just trying to clarify things.

EDIT - Can't really fault bsj's post, since the thread title is a bit misleading. Maybe it should be "Postgame Breakdown" or something?

Edited by mabrowndog, 25 March 2008 - 12:09 PM.

[absintheofmalaise]

A hit is not a play. A play is something that happens, usually on the defensive side, but also on offense. Something like taking the extra base on an overthrow or a throw to another base for example. A hit is a hit is a hit. To me anyway.

edit: clarification

Edited by absintheofmalaise, 25 March 2008 - 12:09 PM.

[TFisNEXT]

Someone mentioned in the game thread that they thought it was stupid to walk Ortiz in the 10th since 1 run didnt necessarily win the game. I have to agree, it ended up being a huge decision that mattered.

Ortiz on base for free ended up being the winning run on Manny's double after Paps coughed up a run in the bottom half. So from the opposing team standpoint, that may have been a game losing decision.

[Pearl Wilson]

That play was as close to team defense as you get in baseball. Moss and Pedrioa did well to hit cut off men, Youks covered third after the cut, and Lowell and Lugo executed the run down correctly. It wasn't flashy (it seems routine, but not when you consider all the moving parts involved [7 of the 9 field players]), but I like watching plays like that more than Ellsbury's leaping catch into the wall, or Lugo grabbing that liner.

I agree with you and I wish that this type of play was covered better on tv during the game, or afterwards. There was a wide-angle overhead camera in the dome. It would be very cool to see the view of that play from that camera. However, the only time we saw the view from that cam was when there was no action.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Out of all the non-spectacular events, what impressed me the most out was Manny's hitting approach to Blanton. Twice he goes with the pitch through pretty long at-bats, ending up with opposite-field fly balls, but you could tell he was always thinking about Blanton trying to slip something inside to him after going away-away-away, so he was ready to jump on it when he finally got a chance in the 6th. Watching him can be such a clinic when he doesn't seem to be guessing...

[BoSox Rule]

The Hannahan strikeout in the first or the Cust strikeout in the second. Matsuzaka was simply brutal in the first two innings and more often than not, even against offensively challenged teams like the Athletics, he doesn't get off the hook quite so easily. Against the Yankees or Tigers he probably gives up 6-7 runs in the first two innings and we're not having this discussion.

[rembrat]

1) Dice-K: The change-up cometh. Well wasn't that a pleasant development? I was questioning the wisdom of adding the pitch when Steve Phillips was sounding its praises. It was a great audition anyway. The talk of the spring was that it would be a straight change. That sucker was moving today. He seems to have a slightly different arm angle/action than his 4 seamer. The newer 2 seamer however is what makes the change effective. I'm looking forward to the development of these two pitches. Now, if only he could figure out how to throw a breaking pitch without missing the plate by 4 feet we're all set! Maybe it's too optimistic or naive but I chalk up the first two innings to "must perform like a god" jitters.

Maybe this could be its own topic one day but I found this interesting from today's game.

Jack Hannahan
Travis Buck (2)
Jack Cust (2)
Daric Barton

What do these four batters have in common? A) Of the 6 strikeouts that Matsuzaka recorded today these were his four victims and B) they are all lefty. I can almost guarantee that he threw the newly found change up to each batter at least twice in their respective at bats. He got a handful of looking and swinging strikes with it as well.

I was looking at his splits for 2007 and there isn't much of a disparity between them, the one thing that jumps out at you is that he walked 50 LHH v. 30 RHH. People have pointed out that one of the major differences in Beckett's 07 and Matsuzaka were the walk totals. If he can get those walk totals down we are going to see an improved Matsuzaka. And I think this change is going to be a great weapon in doing jsut that (just for note today he walked 3 LHH v 2 RHH).

[Sille Skrub]

For me, it was the Moss HR and it isn't even close. Everything was being set up for an OD loss to that point. If the game ends 4-3, we get 24 hours of the JD Drew/midol comments and a sleepy, grouchy ranting fan base.

The Moss HR was so big it helped me begin to get over what happened on 2/3.

[Kevin Youkulele]

What do these four batters have in common? A) Of the 6 strikeouts that Matsuzaka recorded today these were his four victims and B) they are all lefty. I can almost guarantee that he threw the newly found change up to each batter at least twice in their respective at bats. He got a handful of looking and swinging strikes with it as well.

I was also very impressed by the changeup--one of the announcers commented that it had screwball action, and it really did. Too bad pitchFX probably is not installed at the Tokyo dome, I would love to see a quantitative comparison of the horizontal break of the changeups he threw today versus last year. Just visually it seems like the break may have been in the 6-9 inch range--it was really moving. I think that the changeup will be a real weapon for him this year if he keeps throwing it like that, and he could even use it to backdoor RHHs (throw it up and away and have it dive late back into the zone) if his control is good enough. I just hope he can have fewer clusterfuck innings where he has dramatically reduced control--if he can avoid those, we could have a legitimate 2-ace situation here.

edit:

The Moss HR was so big it helped me begin to get over what happened on 2/3.

Agreed, as I had to think for a good 15 seconds to remember what happened on 2/3. That seems longer ago than the sweep of the Rockies, maybe since NESN aired the 2007 retrospective last night.

Edited by Kevin Youkulele, 25 March 2008 - 01:05 PM.

[hair and cheese]

Not necessarily the play of the game, but I think its worth mentioning Tito's game management. A lot of other managers may have tried to squeeze another inning out of local legend Dice K. Nice job to get him out of there. Having Pedroia bunt was also another great call. Moss over Keilty (not even sure if hes on the roster) or Coco also turned out to be a great last minute decision. And, as mentioned in another thread, nice job with the lineup. Was wondering what he was going to do if the game was still tied after Oki worked his inning. Haven't seen the annual Tito on the hot seat thread yet but didn't think his work should be overlooked....

[Kevin Youkulele]

Not necessarily the play of the game, but I think its worth mentioning Tito's game management. A lot of other managers may have tried to squeeze another inning out of local legend Dice K. Nice job to get him out of there. Having Pedroia bunt was also another great call. Moss over Keilty (not even sure if hes on the roster) or Coco also turned out to be a great last minute decision. And, as mentioned in another thread, nice job with the lineup. Was wondering what he was going to do if the game was still tied after Oki worked his inning. Haven't seen the annual Tito on the hot seat thread yet but didn't think his work should be overlooked....

Was wondering about the choice of Moss over Crisp and I wonder whether Crisp is available for a full game at this point in his recovery from the groin injury--he may not be, or he may not have his hitting timing much at all given how little he played in ST.

Francona went against what I wanted twice, and it worked out well both times: bringing in Lopez when he did (I would have left Snyder to try to get through the 6th, since he's stretched out) and I would not have had Pedroia bunt, probably opting to send Lugo (I asked about Suzuki's arm in the game thread and his CS rate was reported to be <20%). So Tito gets at least two freebies before I start second-guessing him again...

[ZachCrouch]

The catcher is supposed to make cut calls in the lower level, but I think once you hit the majors, they tend not too just because of the noise level. Even if Tek was yelling "Cut!!!" Youks might not have heard him.

That's kind of what I was wondering, but wasn't sure, and I'm still not sure really. I would have to figure there is some system of communication from catcher to cutoff man and it is not just left in the cutoff man's hands as Youk or Lowell does not have a view of when to cut and let it go through anywhere near the level of the catcher (a cutoff man's back is often to the runner headed home on a relay play). I don't know what that system is if it's not verbal (maybe visual somehow?), or how much noise level impacts on field communication in this particular situation (fly balls are obviously still called out, etc. though that is from a much closer range from player to player).

I've thought about a million nuances of Major League Baseball, but I'm not sure I've ever considered if the catcher handles this responsibility. That's what I love about baseball. Every time I watch a game I see something I've never seen before or have a thought about the game that's never occured to me before.

Great to have it back.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Was wondering about the choice of Moss over Crisp and I wonder whether Crisp is available for a full game at this point in his recovery from the groin injury--he may not be, or he may not have his hitting timing much at all given how little he played in ST.

Crisp can't play RF -- he doesn't have the arm. Ellsbury can't either -- ditto.

Moss has enough range and the gun to do it -- he could break 90 as a HS pitcher. Besides, there's no one fungible enough to send down to AAA in order to clear a 25-man spot to sign Kielty, so that means Drew would have had to be 15-day DL'd for a butt-cramp that probably just needed a forty-minute massage. But sometimes things just work out...

[ngruz25]

Fangraphs already has the data up from the game.

According to WPA, the moment with the highest WPA was Manny's double in the 10th.

I love fangraphs but I can't wait to get home and watch the game on Tivo.

According to WPA, the worst play was Emil Brown getting thrown out in the 10th. Not too surprising, but... Hah! Also lends to credence to WPA, since I think we can all agree that conventional baseball wisdom (don't get thrown out at 3rd with 2 outs) holds that Brown's play was really, really stupid.

[bosox4283]

My votes goes to Manny Ramirez for his two very timely hits.

According to WPA, this was his best game since 7/1/2004 against the NYY when he amassed a .680 WPA. In that game, he was 4/6 with 2 HR, 2 R, and 3 RBI.

Today he finished with a .602 WPA. What a great way to start the season.

7/1/2004 Box Score: http://www.fangraphs...amp;season=2004

[Kevin Youkulele]

Crisp can't play RF -- he doesn't have the arm. Ellsbury can't either -- ditto.

Moss has enough range and the gun to do it -- he could break 90 as a HS pitcher. Besides, there's no one fungible enough to send down to AAA in order to clear a 25-man spot to sign Kielty, so that means Drew would have had to be 15-day DL'd for a butt-cramp that probably just needed a forty-minute massage. But sometimes things just work out...

FWIW, Ellsbury appeared in RF once last year, so the Sox appear to be willing to stick him there on an emergency basis at least, but you are right that Moss was the best choice on the roster today.

If as I expect Moss is sent down as part of getting the active roster to 25 and Crisp and Ellsbury both stay, someone will back up RF who doesn't work very well there; Casey has never played there, and he replaced periodic RFer Hinske from last year. I don't see them cutting enough relievers to carry a 5th OF, although they could option Ellsbury in favor of Moss or Kielty until Crisp is dealt--I don't know how likely that is.

[someoneanywhere]

For me, it was the Moss HR and it isn't even close. Everything was being set up for an OD loss to that point. If the game ends 4-3, we get 24 hours of the JD Drew/midol comments and a sleepy, grouchy ranting fan base.

Moreover, Moss was able to yank it. My impression is that it wasn't a terrible pitch by Street; it actually seemed to have a nasty bite to it. He stayed on it, for one thing; he stayed on it and squared it, for another; he stayed on it and pulled it for another.

For all the banality evinced by both Thorne and Phillips during the ESPN broadcast -- is it really that hard to understand why you would replace Lugo with Cora in the bottom of the 10th? -- they did get one thing right. The ball seemed to die in center. The As drove a few out there that I thought surely were goners, and while Manny has been known to be wrong before, I thought he posed for what appeared to me to be sufficient reasons. That Moss was able to do all of the above and jerk it is a fine piece of young hitting.

Edited by someoneanywhere, 25 March 2008 - 03:35 PM.

[Frisbetarian]

That's kind of what I was wondering, but wasn't sure, and I'm still not sure really. I would have to figure there is some system of communication from catcher to cutoff man and it is not just left in the cutoff man's hands as Youk or Lowell does not have a view of when to cut and let it go through anywhere near the level of the catcher (a cutoff man's back is often to the runner headed home on a relay play). I don't know what that system is if it's not verbal (maybe visual somehow?), or how much noise level impacts on field communication in this particular situation (fly balls are obviously still called out, etc. though that is from a much closer range from player to player).

I've thought about a million nuances of Major League Baseball, but I'm not sure I've ever considered if the catcher handles this responsibility. That's what I love about baseball. Every time I watch a game I see something I've never seen before or have a thought about the game that's never occured to me before.

Great to have it back.

Youkilis took the throw facing third (on his glove side), affording him quick release on a throw to home (the correct way to take a relay throw). Because of this, the incredibly stupid Brown base-running blunder was right in front of him, so it was a no-brainer for him to take the sure out. I'm not sure if Varitek or another infielder yelled "cut third" (I would guess someone did), but with the play in front of Youk it really didn't matter - he had an obvious out with Brown. The game replay is on NESN now, so we can watch it again and see if we see anything.

A real big play, but there might have been one too many throws in the rundown - another thing to look for in the replay.

I missed baseball; what happened Feb 3rd again?

[ShoelessJoe]

I missed baseball; what happened Feb 3rd again?

Curt's injury? No, that was later. Santana signing? No... Clemens? Definitely No...

Oh yeah!

Superbowl.

Don't feel bad. It took me a while to figure it out.

[Frisbetarian]

Curt's injury? No, that was later. Santana signing? No... Clemens? Definitely No...

Oh yeah!

Superbowl.

Don't feel bad. It took me a while to figure it out.

Shhhh.....we're trying to forget.

Moss HR just now on the replay and, ignoring for a moment whether that is a play or not, it was definitely a real nice piece of hitting on a tough, down in the zone, two strike pitch from Street.

[mr guido]

My votes goes to Manny Ramirez for his two very timely hits.

According to WPA, this was his best game since 7/1/2004 against the NYY when he amassed a .680 WPA. In that game, he was 4/6 with 2 HR, 2 R, and 3 RBI.

Amazingly, Manny already has more WPA in 2008 (.602) than he amassed in the whole 2007 regular season (0.31). Of course he outdid his regular season in the playoffs too (0.95).

Anyhow, back to the topic at hand, Daisuke's grab of the bases-loaded nubber in the 1st was huge. He flubs that play, like many pitchers do, and the game is on track to be broken wide open before it even starts.

[Lupe Whalewatch]

I think it is significant to note that Snyder got the call over Tavarez today. I was shocked by this. Last season Tavarez always got the call over Snyder in closer games when a long reliever was required (though one could argue with a nine man bullpen there isn't a need for a long man).

I would argue that Tavarez did get the call ahead of Snyder today tho. They had him warming in the second, and if I'm not mistaken for the start of the third as well. Being the fact that it is only March, Francona was a little extra cautious. He got him up once, and when he didn't have to make the move in the third inning, it was treated as nothing more than a side session and his day was done.

[Mister Roper]

According to WPA, the worst play was Emil Brown getting thrown out in the 10th. Not too surprising, but... Hah! Also lends to credence to WPA, since I think we can all agree that conventional baseball wisdom (don't get thrown out at 3rd with 2 outs) holds that Brown's play was really, really stupid.

Conventional wisdom is that you never make the first or third out of the inning at third. Brown was making the second out. If the throw had gone through to Tek, Brown gets to third with one out, which would have been huge, because he then could have scored on a sac fly. No doubt Brown's baserunning was a bone-headed move, but not as bad as you suggest.

[Average Reds]

Conventional wisdom is that you never make the first or third out of the inning at third. Brown was making the second out. If the throw had gone through to Tek, Brown gets to third with one out, which would have been huge, because he then could have scored on a sac fly. No doubt Brown's baserunning was a bone-headed move, but not as bad as you suggest.

Actually, it was that bad.

In order for your argument to be valid, Brown has to have a realistic chance to get to third. But because he was careless in not making sure that the ball went through to Tek, he never had a chance. So the risk/reward analysis implicit in your invocation of "conventional wisdom" does not hold.

[DieHard3]

For me a key moment with ramifications far beyond today was Manny coming up huge following the intentional walk to Ortiz in the 10th. With Manny not really being Manny most of last season, teams started walking David with a bit too much regularity for my tastes. A locked in Manny means that we'll see fewer intentional walks to Ortiz, and that's a good thing for the Sox winning percentage.

[mr guido]

For me a key moment with ramifications far beyond today was Manny coming up huge following the intentional walk to Ortiz in the 10th. With Manny not really being Manny most of last season, teams started walking David with a bit too much regularity for my tastes. A locked in Manny means that we'll see fewer intentional walks to Ortiz, and that's a good thing for the Sox winning percentage.

You might want to fact check that one. In 2006, Papi had 23 intentional walks while Manny was hitting an other-worldly .321 / .439 / .619. In 2007 Papi had just 12 intentional walks while Manny was at .296 / .388 / .493. (Ortiz' unintentional walk rates were level across the two years.)

[DieHard3]

You might want to fact check that one. In 2006, Papi had 23 intentional walks while Manny was hitting an other-worldly .321 / .439 / .619. In 2007 Papi had just 12 intentional walks while Manny was at .296 / .388 / .493. (Ortiz' unintentional walk rates were level across the two years.)

Huh. Score one for objective records of events.

[hawaiirsn]

Actually, it was that bad.

In order for your argument to be valid, Brown has to have a realistic chance to get to third. But because he was careless in not making sure that the ball went through to Tek, he never had a chance. So the risk/reward analysis implicit in your invocation of "conventional wisdom" does not hold.

I think Brown went to third because he thought they had a realistic chance of getting the runner out at the plate, which after looking at it on DVR several times is not totally unreasonable. It would certainly been a close play at the plate. That being said, It was still a bonehead play.

[Pandemonium67]

It was totally a boneheaded play because, with the A's down 2 runs, the first run meant absolutely nothing. The Red Sox should have been playing with the sole focus of stopping the second runner from advancing, and Brown should've known that.