8 replies to this topic

[Return of the Dewey]

I had posted in the "Manny being Manny" thread that it seems to me that Manny is more "streaky" this year than in past seasons in that his production is coming in bunches. Which got me thinking of what exactly does it mean to be a "streaky" hitter. Is there any good definition for it? I'm not a total stathead, but I think I know a "streaky" hitter when I see him (e.g. Millar, Varitek, Todd Walker). Is there even such a thing? Also, am I wrong in my perception that Manny is more "streaky" this season than in past seasons?

[Sullysox]

EV has posted a number of analyses that show Manny to be a lights-out hitter for about 500-550 PA's a year and an absolutely horrible one for another 100 PA's or so. He ususally has two tough 15-or-so-game stretches per season. The only difference this season has been that his initial cold streak to start the year lasted much longer than his customary cold streaks have. This current one doesn't seem atypical to me.

[OttoC]

The number of games (Gm) in which Manny Ramirez got a specific (1,2,3,4) number of hits (H) in 2004 and thus far in 2005, along with his batting average in those games and the percent of total games played in which he got the specified number of hits. I also included sub-totals for 0 to 1 hits and 2+ hits.

2004        
H  Gm  AB   H    AVG   %Gm
---------------------------
0  41  136   0  .000  27.0%
1  62  226  62  .274  40.8%
---------------------------
- 103  362  62  .171  67.8%

2  36  149  72  .483  23.7%
3  11   46  33  .717   7.2%
4   2   11   8  .727   1.3%
---------------------------
-  49  206 113  .549  32.2%
___________________________
T 152  568 175  .308 100.0%

2005        
H  Gm  AB   H    AVG   %Gm
---------------------------
0  37  116   0  .000  28.9%
1  58  207  58  .280  45.3%
---------------------------
-  95  323  58  .180  74.2%

2  27  116  54  .466  21.1%
3   4   20  12  .600   3.1%
4   2    8   8 1.000   1.6%
---------------------------
-  33  144  74  .514  25.8%
___________________________
T  128 467 132  .283 100.0%

Another way to look at this is that he hit .405 in 2004 when he got at least one hit in a game but this year he is only hitting .376 in games in which he got at least one hit.

[Vermonter At Large]

Manny's streaks are very interesting because they are so identifiable. When he is in the zone, he is probably making solid contact on 70% of the pitches he hits. This may be less noticeable in the box score than from watching the game. When he is cold, he makes weak contact on about 90% of his contact events. He's currently in a big cold patch, and hasn't made solid contact on so much as a foul ball in over a week.

I think part of this is that the contrast between Good Manny vs Bad Manny is so large. Other streaky hitters are harder to identify because the contrast is smaller, but Kevin Millar and Jim Rice are two that come to mind as being identifiably streaky.

Whereas most lengthy hot and cold batting streaks are often clouded by random noise, Manny is clearly either on or off.

[thisyearisthe]

Anecdotally Manny seems different this year in his approach. He has been bitching at umps a heck of a lot more than he used to.

He never seems to be waiting for his pitch and then jumping all over it. Seems more defensive.

[bosoxgrl]

I am sure that this has been mentioned as well, but he also has been standing way off the plate recently. He can't seem to get to pitches on the outside corner. Not even to cover them....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've noticed that as well. He also seems to be taking bigger swings, like he is swinging for the fences each time.

[Vermonter At Large]

I think I know a "streaky" hitter when I see him (e.g. Millar, Varitek, Todd Walker). Is there even such a thing?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its tremendously interesting that Varitek has absolutely not been streaky this year. What 10M/yr and the "C" seems to have bought is a completely changed man at the plate. I had always thought that streaky hitters remained streaky hitters throughout their careers, but Tek seems to be the exception to this rule. He has, without a doubt, been the most consistent hitter in the lineup all year.

[The Long Tater]

I am sure that this has been mentioned as well, but he also has been standing way off the plate recently. He can't seem to get to pitches on the outside corner. Not even to cover them....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This seemed to be a factor in his stike out in the 8th inning last night. He had no chance on an outside fastball.