21 replies to this topic

[amh03]

An article by Tom Verducci over on SI (Link) got me thinking about Papi and his chances for a HOF vote. To be honest, I haven't thought of Ortiz in this way. Emotionally, my impression is that he's as clutch as clutch can get, but does he have enough to make it in, or more accurately, could he acquire enough numbers to get in?

Some quotes from the Verducci article:

He has slugged at least .592 for five consecutive seasons, a level of sustained power-hitting excellence that is historically rare. Ortiz is one of 11 players in history with that kind of streak, with only Barry Bonds (eight straight), Babe Ruth (seven and six), Hank Greenberg (seven), Mark McGwire (six) and Ted Williams (six) with more consecutive such seasons.

He has pounded out 85 extra-base hits or more for four consecutive years. Only Lou Gehrig (five seasons) ever had a longer such streak and only Sammy Sosa has matched Ortiz's run. Even if you forget about whether such seasons came consecutively or not, only four hitters ever had more 85-extra-base seasons than Ortiz already has: Gehrig (eight), Ruth (seven) and Greenberg and Stan Musial (five).

He doesn't have the numbers yet, and he's a DH - a big negative in the eyes of many HOF voters. (Maybe negative's the wrong word there - they just don't give much weight to DH's). But, he's signed with the Sox through 2010 with an option for one more year and he'll still only be 36 years old. What say you - does he have a shot?

[JimRiceHOFer]

By the standards used by Baseball Reference (http://www.baseball-...ortizda01.shtml), Ortiz is just over half-way there.

Black Ink: Batting - 16 (139) (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 75 (310) (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 28.2 (316) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 84.5 (197) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

If you were talking about a candidate's numbers (blindly) and saw his career line, would you put him in?

BA - .289, OBP - .384, SLG - .559, HR - 266, RBI - 880, Hits - 1219, Runs - 738, Top 5 in MVP Voting - 5 times, 4 time All-Star.

*If you were to double those #'s you would have an almost guaranteed Hall of Famer.

The problem for Ortiz is his relatively late start at the MLB level, starter at 25, to pile up the #'s to reach several of the so-called "Golden" plateaus for the HOF voters - 500 (or 600) HR's now, 1500 RBI, 3000 hits.

He has had a great 5 year run for the Red Sox. I would say that if he can maintain a similar high level of production for another 5 years, he will be seriously considered as the 1st DH for the Hall of Fame.

Assuming he can average only 75% of the production of his last 5 years over the next 5 years it would give him the following totals.

HR - 422, RBI - 1361, Runs - 1130, Hits - 1838 (assuming the same avg/obp/slg)
Does that get him in?

Right now his most comparable players (at this point in their careers) are:

• Carlos Delgado (929)
• Mo Vaughn (927)
• Lance Berkman (924)
• Fred McGriff (912)
• Jason Giambi (910)
• Richie Sexson (903)
• Willie McCovey (892) *
• Jeff Bagwell (892)
• Kent Hrbek (887)
• Paul Konerko (886)

How many of these players would you say are headed towrds the Hall of Fame?
On that list I only see two Hall of Famers: Willie McCovey and Jeff Bagwell.
And McCovey had to play 22 years until the age of 42 to make it in.
Bagwell has better HOF #'s as rated by BR, than McCovey does.

The most comparable on this list I would say is Lance Berkman.
Do you think he is a Hall of Famer.
No, Maybe in the discussion if he plays 10 more years at this level and stays healthy.

And that is the problem with Papi. I don't believe he will stay reasonably healthy & productive for 7-10 more years to get to the levels needed to get him in.
He will face the same problem as Jim Rice.
Great run while it lasted, but not long enough.

Edited by JimRiceHOFer, 05 March 2008 - 09:42 AM.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

He has slugged at least .592 for five consecutive seasons, a level of sustained power-hitting excellence that is historically rare. Ortiz is one of 11 players in history with that kind of streak, with only Barry Bonds (eight straight), Babe Ruth (seven and six), Hank Greenberg (seven), Mark McGwire (six) and Ted Williams (six) with more consecutive such seasons.

So who else is on that list? I always see a something like that and wonder if the others are Dave Kingman or Jose Conseco or people that don't add to the argument (hence leaving them off). Some quick poking around on baseballreference.com suggests this is not the case, although I count at least six others who have done this, so the claim that Ortiz is one of only 11 players to achieve this doesn't sound right.

Lou Gehrig
Jimmy Foxx
Sammy Sosa
Frank Thomas
Rogers Hornsby
Manny Ramirez.

I guess that's pretty good company.

Nonetheless, this sounds like an set of stats that conveniently looks impressive (Ortiz is up there with only a handful of the greatest players of all time!), but is it really? Draw the line a at slightly lower level and suddenly guys like Arod, Todd Helton, Chuck Klein, Duke Snider and Willie Mays join the list - still good company but 11 (or 12) quickly turns into a larger number. Similarly, a slightly lower bar makes other streaks look a lot more impressive. Gehrig's five in a row is bounded by .584 in 1929 and .583 in 1935. Drop the bar to .583 and Gehrig has 11 in a row. Drop the bar to just .587 and Manny's accomplishment of beating that number for nine straight years looks a lot better than Ortiz doing it five in a row. That drops Ortiz from one of the all-time best as Verducci implies to not even the best on his team.

None of this is to say Ortiz hasn't been a fantastic player, but using quirky stats like this to prove it is somewhat bogus.

Edited by Kevin Mortons Ghost, 05 March 2008 - 09:51 AM.

[OttoC]

If stats are neutralized, then I think you get a little better picture. When you do counting stats, there is the 154/162 games in a season with which to contend and you also have to consider a player's run scoring environment. Baseball-reference.com has a neutralizing mechanism, so I took the 162 game marks in a 4.63 run per game environment for some of the payers mentioned. While a lot of Ortiz's numbers stack up well, the slow start to his career is apparent in OPS. I did expect Foxx's numbers to be a little better.

ExBH  HR   OPS   Player

86	35  1.055  Gehrig

75	22  1.033  Hornsby

79	40  0.988  Ramirez

72	34  0.987  Foxx

80	23  0.931  Ortiz

[Fratboy]

Ortiz needs to have at least 3 more seasons like 2004 or better. THEN we can have the HOF discussion.

[glennhoffmania]

Ortiz needs to have at least 3 more seasons like 2004 or better. THEN we can have the HOF discussion.

I agree. I don't think it's even worth discussing at this point. He's had a very good run but so have many other guys in a similar time frame.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Yeah, much as I man-love the guy (I just bought his jersey), I'd never even considered him at this point for the HoF, for any number of reasons......

[Ananti]

You can't compare him to Lance Berkman, post-season heroics matter in the voters' mind, winning championship matter.

If he has a couple more great years and a graceful decline, and the Sox have possibly another championship, He's going to be very much in discussion for the HOF.

[Bowlerman9]

As purely a DH, I think he needs 500 HR to get in. Maybe a number in the mid to high 4's along with his post season numbers will be enough. Another WS ring and an MVP award could only help. But right now, he needs another 5 or 6 solid seasons to be a sure thing for the HoF.

[exGloucester]

I think that 450 HRs, one more WS ring, and continued excellent national press that has turned him into a folk-hero figure will get him in. Those 184 additional dingers might be possible over five years, but not certainly not an easy goal to reach. If he ends up with less than that, then the "he's only a DH" argument keeps him in border-line territory.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree with Bowlerman that it will take 500 HR. Or at least very close to it. I don't think 450 will do it, not for a DH in this era. If he gets up over 475, with 1500+ RBI and some more postseason heroics to his credit, that might be enough given his clutch reputation and popularity with the press.

To get there, I think he'll have to play at least six more years (to reach 480 HR and 1500 RBI, he'd need to average 36/103 over six years, which seems like a best-case scenario, all things considered). More likely, he'll need seven or even eight more years, i.e., playing through his age 38 or 39 seasons. It's certainly possible, but some very good luck will be needed--no major injuries and a late, slow decline.

[glennhoffmania]

From lurker Fireball Fred:

Here's my reason why not -- Bernie Williams: CF, clutch player, good guy, long career, best hitter on three world champion teams and a major contributor on a fourth. Yet he is considered a marginal candidate at best, it seems. Plus, frankly, I think that HRs are devalued currency for everyone at this point.

[bakahump]

The Steriod Era will do nothing but help him. So I dont see how the homers will be degraded. As long as your percieved as clean as the driven snow.

Because of the roids/hgh 400-450 HR will again become a significant achievement.

If he stays "stain free" which as a naturally big guys is way more plausible then Arods potential to do so (not that Arod actually did them or didnt do them...but that he bulked up from being a "skinny" kid will certainly add to the circumstancial evidence) and rumor mongering).

Papi should be somewhat immune to these rumor mills. Regardless 450HR is no cake walk and 5 more years of 30+ HR is no guarentee.

Its the Bagwells and Nomars who's HR numbers will be devalued...not Ortiz or Manny or Thome.

Ortiz with 430 lifetime HRs may well be considered > Bagwell or Sheffields or Palmeiros with 450-550+

[gcapalbo]

Emotionally, I can't get myself to think about his retirement years just yet.

To me, Papi is a guy in the middle of his career and (hopefully) a number of years left to amaze and entertain us.

If he does continue to put up the kind of performance over the next number of years that he has in the past-- and continues to deliver with gusto in a post-season scenario, I can't imagine him not getting into the HOF.

... but it's way too soon for me to even contemplate that.

Watching him whack the cover off the ball during my brief visit to ST a few weeks back, that day seems a long, long way off.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

I agree. I don't think it's even worth discussing at this point. He's had a very good run but so have many other guys in a similar time frame.

Thirded. I think a couple more years of a 8-9 WARP puts his peak among many who have been elected. If Jim Rice can get ~70% votes, and Papi has the same length of a peak as he did and for what he did in 04, I think he definitely get in. Right now it's pretty silly to think about it. I think it's certainly within the realm of possibilities considering last year was his best year statistically.

[smastroyin]

From lurker Fireball Fred:

Here's my reason why not -- Bernie Williams: CF, clutch player, good guy, long career, best hitter on three world champion teams and a major contributor on a fourth. Yet he is considered a marginal candidate at best, it seems. Plus, frankly, I think that HRs are devalued currency for everyone at this point.

Williams's "good" career was actually too short which is unacceptable in the eyes of voters because it was shortened not by tragedy but by his skills declining very quickly in his mid-30's. His 4 seasons after 2002 are not very good and are a huge step down from where he was before then. He didn't hang around long enough to pile up career accumulations. A good comparison for Williams is Jim Rice and actually I would put Williams in ahead of Rice, mostly because of the CF thing.

As for Ortiz, he will have trouble making the hall. He did not become a true full time player until he came to Boston at age 27 and his numbers were only ok before then even in his limited time. If he has 3 more years like his last three, then you start having the discussion. That throws him over 400 2B and 400 HR and 1250 RBI going into his age 35 year and brings his AVG into the .300 realm and gives him some more black ink, all-stars, and maybe an MVP award. It also means that he could hang on for another 3 years and maybe get to 500 HR, 1500 RBI and 2000 H. But, his main enemy is going to be age. Basically to really be considered he needs to hit from age 32-36 in a similar fashion to how he did from age 27-31, hitting roughly .300 with about 800 H, 200 2B, 200 HR, and 600 RBI, or he needs to be able to hang on to being useful long enough to accumulate to bigger milestones.

[Fratboy]

As for Ortiz, he will have trouble making the hall. He did not become a true full time player until he came to Boston at age 27 and his numbers were only ok before then even in his limited time.

One of the things that we see about HOFers is that they are established MLB position players/starters at a very young age.

Think Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Alex Rodriguez, Griffey, Thomas, and Bonds, the most obvious contemporary future candidates off the top of my head, PEDs or otherwise. All were established MLBers at a very young age, and therefore have been able to amass a career line at a rapid rate.

David Wright and CC Sabathia are two pre-peak players who are following a similar path, as is Josh Beckett, although he's been Blyleven-ed for his Florida time (yeah, I went there).

A player like Wade Boggs who became a regular at Age 26 is the exception, and not the rule, and is at a distinct disadvantage unless he has a ton of durability and consistency on the back end, which is VERY difficult to achieve and maintain. It's almost a miracle he made it to 3000 hits.

In short, because of Papi's late start, a HOF election is nowhere near a certainty, and requires more dominance for several years, and possibility one or two additional postseason iconic moments in addition to a third ring for his hand.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

But, his main enemy is going to be age. Basically to really be considered he needs to hit from age 32-36 in a similar fashion to how he did from age 27-31,

I think being a DH will make his career last a little longer than Rice and Williams did. Yes, he had some knee problems last year, but he also put up his best season yet. You could actually make a case, as far as career numbers, to compare Papi to another great DH, Edgar Martinez. Oddly enough, both didn't receive full playing time until age 27. Now I know Edgar is a borderline HOF as well (even though personally I'd vote for him).

Currently:

Ortiz: .289/266 HR/ 880 RBi/139 OPS+ through 11 seasons
Martinez: .312/309 HR/1261 RBi/147 OPS+ through 17 seasons

I think Ortiz has a good 5-6 years left in him to make a strong case for a HOF.

[URI]

If Edgar Martinez doesn't get in, you'll likely not see Ortiz merit serious consideration beyond these walls (of the internet). And that's if he has 4-5 more 05-06 level seasons before eventually becoming Mo Vaughn.

I mean, look how tough it's been for him to be considered for the league MVP. He's just leaving too much off the table in terms of defense...when he retires, he'll probably have about 98% of his value tied up in his bat, which is a tough hurdle to climb amongst the even-minded, let alone the I'll-vote-for-John-Kruk-because-he-was-nice-to-me agenda creaters that vote for these things.

[kazuneko]

If Edgar Martinez doesn't get in, you'll likely not see Ortiz merit serious consideration beyond these walls (of the internet). And that's if he has 4-5 more 05-06 level seasons before eventually becoming Mo Vaughn.

I can't help but feel your overstating the case here. Although I would be shocked if he actually had 4-5 years at 05-06 levels in him ( a period when he averaged just over 50 HRs per year), if he actually does I can't see him not making it. An amazing stretch like that would leave him with anywhere from just under 500 HRs to over 550 HRs. If you add in a couple of declining "Mo" years this scenario would leave him at least clearing 500 and potentially even reaching 600.
When you add in his leadership role and clutch play on two championship teams (at least) and that he is one of the most widely loved players in the history of the game (both by the media and the fans) those numbers will get him in.
The problem is he almost certainly doesn't have 4-5 years of 05-06 level performance in him. By point of comparison only one of the Baseball Reference's top 10 similar players through age 31 ended up (or will be likely to end up) with over 500 HRs: Willie McCovey. That is equal to the amount that- in the same list- ended up with under 300 (Kent Hrbek). I would think the over-under for Ortiz should be about 400 career HRs- a number that won't be enough to get him in the Hall.

[URI]

I should have been clearer...I was talking about his rates, not the raw numbers. Give him 4-5 years of that level, and then a normal decline, I would estimate the line for his career at about .285/.375/.575.

My case is that that's all there is.

[The Hot Corner]

...when he retires, he'll probably have about 98% of his value tied up in his bat, which is a tough hurdle to climb amongst the even-minded, let alone the I'll-vote-for-John-Kruk-because-he-was-nice-to-me agenda creaters that vote for these things.

It's interesting that you mention the agenda-pushers. I think if Ortiz reaches or crosses the 400 HR mark and doesn't disappear in "late and close" situations from here to the end of his career he will be a serious contender given his friendliness with the press. I mean, this guy is genuinely liked, by all accounts, in the media. I think that, his potential numbers, and being clutch could make him a pretty serious candidate.