459 replies to this topic

[PedroSpecialK]

Figured we could use one of these. I'm just interested in seeing what kind of scenarios would allow us the most money in '08-'09, so here's what we have right now (via nhlscap.com)

Here are the numbers for our forwards:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Savard, Marc	C	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	UFA
Bergeron, Patrice	C	4,750,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,750,000	UFA
Murray, Glen	RW	4,150,000	4,150,000	4,150,000	UFA
Zhamnov, Alexei	C	4,100,000	4,100,000	UFA
Sturm, Marco	LW	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	UFA
Kessel, Phil	C	2,200,000	2,200,000	2,200,000	RFA
Schaefer, Peter	LW	2,100,000	2,100,000	2,300,000	2,300,000	UFA
Axelsson, Per-Johan	LW	1,850,000	1,850,000	1,850,000	UFA
Kobasew, Chuck	RW	1,200,000	1,200,000	RFA
Nokelainen, Petteri	C	1,055,033	984,200	RFA
Karsums, Martins	RW	883,333	883,333	883,333	RFA
Krejci, David	C	883,333	883,333	883,333	RFA
Lucic, Milan	LW	850,000	585,000	585,000	685,000	RFA
Sobotka, Vladimir	C	750,000	550,000	575,000	625,000	RFA
Thornton, Shawn	RW	516,667	500,000	500,000	500,000	UFA
Metropolit, Glen	C	500,000	500,000	UFA
Reich, Jeremy	LW	487,500	475,000	500,000	UFA
Totals:		34,775,866	34,460,866	27,926,666	17,610,000	9,250,000
AAV For '08-'09		27,920,833
AAV For '08-'09 Including Kobasew and Nokelainen		31,120,833
Kobasew: $2,300,000
Nokelainen: $900,000

Those are rough estimates on Kobasew and Nokelainen, but I think they could end up being pretty accurate.

If we can move Murray and Schaefer this summer for prospects or picks, that brings the AAV for '08-'09 down to approximately $24,870,833 for forwards.

Here's the table for defensemen:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Chara, Zdeno	D	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	UFA
Ward, Aaron	D	2,750,000	2,750,000	UFA
Ference, Andrew	D	1,400,000	1,235,000	1,340,000	1,625,000	UFA
Stuart, Mark	D	1,579,900	942,400	RFA
Alberts, Andrew	D	1,250,000	1,100,000	1,400,000	UFA
Wideman, Dennis	D	600,000	600,000	RFA
Lashoff, Matt	D	850,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Hnidy, Shane	D	757,500	757,500	757,500	UFA
Totals:		16,687,400	15,734,900	11,847,500	9,125,000	7,500,000
AAV for '08-'09		11,757,500
AAV for '08-'09 Including Wideman and Stuart estimations		15,957,500
Wideman: $3,000,000
Stuart: $1,200,000

Again, Stuart and Wideman are rough but (hopefully) accurate.

Lastly, here are the goalies:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Fernandez, Manny	G	4,333,333	4,333,333	4,333,333	UFA
Rask, Tuukka	G	3,200,000	850,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Thomas, Tim	G	1,100,000	1,100,000	1,100,000	UFA
Auld, Alexander	G	600,000	600,000	UFA
Totals:		9,233,333	6,883,333	6,283,333	850,000
AAV for '08-'09		8,633,333
AAV for '08-'09 with Rask in Providence		5,433,333

Rask makes this a tricky science - I'm banking on him staying in Providence most of next year. However, if we re-sign Auld for $1m AAV, trade Fernandez and keep Thomas, we could be looking at an AAV of only $2,100,000 for our goalies.

After Wideman, Kobasew, Stuart, and Nokelainen's contracts being sorted out, with Karsums being sent down, Reich waived, and with Hnidy and Thornton on the team as healthy scratches our AAV comes to a grand total of $51,140,833. This leaves little wiggle room, perhaps enough to re-sign Ward and waive Hnidy to stay under the cap. I do hear the cap is going up to around $52m next year, but this should still keep us right around the limit.

Here's a look at our total AAV's under different scenarios for next year:

Table

Players Traded:	08-'09 AAV After Trade
Murray	47,478,333
Schaefer	49,528,333
Fernandez	47,295,000
Murray & Schaefer	45,378,333
Murray & Fernandez	43,145,000
Schaefer & Fernandez	45,195,000
Murray, Schaefer & Fernandez	41,145,000

When we look at moving one of Murray or Fernandez along with Schaefer, we have some serious wiggle room to take a run at Hossa or Huselius, which would make this team a legitimate championship contender as long as Bergeron can return.

I plan on keeping this updated for any and all moves throughout the next few months leading into free agency, so any feedback is welcome and appreciated.


Edited for Kessel and to fix numbers as a result of that.

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 25 March 2010 - 11:55 AM.

[PedroSpecialK]

This is the 2nd time in a big post I've forgotten Kessel. I swear he wasn't on NHLscap for a while - maybe a result of the paper move Chiarelli made yesterday? Weird nonetheless.

[PedroSpecialK]

In keeping up with the collapse of Tim Thomas and the current goalie discussion in the game threat, I decided to take a look at our cap situation next year and how various goaltending scenarios would fit into it (note: I am not even considering the possibility of Rask at the NHL level - he's looked bad enough at Providence (2.49 GAA, .897 sv%).

Scenario 1:
Trade Thomas, retain Fernandez, re-sign Auld to a 1 year, $900,000 deal (estimate)
Result: Cuts $200,000 off the cap, leaves us at an AAV of $5,233,333 for goalies and $50,940,833 overall.

Scenario 2:
Keep Thomas and Fernandez, let Auld go to free agency
Result: Status quo keeps us at an AAV of $5,433,333 for goalies and $51,140,833 overall.

Scenario 3:
Trade Thomas and Fernandez, re-sign Auld (~$900,000) and sign Christobal Huet (~$3,500,000 AAV)
Result: In my opinion, we significantly upgrade the position with Huet as it gives us a night to night consistency, and we shed about $1,033,333 AAV, giving us $4,600,000 for goalies and $50,107,500 overall. The problem here lies in finding a taker for Fernandez. If Jacobs steps up and offers to pay his salary as he plays in Providence that could really be huge for both next year's team and Tuukka Rask's development.

Scenario 4:
Trade Thomas and Fernandez, re-sign Auld (~$900,000) and sign Jose Theodore (~$2,000,000 AAV)
Result: About the same quality of goaltending as we would get w/ Fernandez and Thomas, with the added bonus of Theodore and Julien getting re-united (like that year that Theodore won the Hart and Vezina), thus a big upside in putting Theodore in Julien's system again. We'd have $2,900,000 AAV given to goalies and $48,407,500 overall.

Scenario 5:
Retain Thomas, Trade Fernandez, re-sign Auld (~$900,000)
Result: This is about as likely as scenario 2 in my opinion, but only if Fernandez makes a successful return this year. We'd only be giving $2,000,000 to goalies, bringing our AAV next year to $47,507,500 overall.

Thoughts? Tinkers on estimated salaries?

[j44thor]

I would immediately rule out any options that include trading Fernandez.
He will have negative trade value given the salary cap hit which is exorbitant for a non elite goaltender and the fact he lost all of this season.

I don't think there is a team in the NHL that would claim him off waivers unless he has some sort of miraculous recovery and pulls out a Sean Casey like playoff run.

And if he does make it back to the ice this season and plays well enough to warrant 4M next season then the B's would probably be better served keeping him.

Thomas is the only one who you might be able to move.

[PedroSpecialK]

I should say that in the scenarios where I say to trade Fernandez, it's highly likely that we'd have to take on a long-term $2-2.5m cap hit contract, something like a Schaefer or something. And it's possible that we won't be able to move him - but I'm willing to move him for anything if we can re-sign Auld and get Huet or Theodore while trading Thomas for some assets, be they picks or roster players.

[j44thor]

I should say that in the scenarios where I say to trade Fernandez, it's highly likely that we'd have to take on a long-term $2-2.5m cap hit contract, something like a Schaefer or something. And it's possible that we won't be able to move him - but I'm willing to move him for anything if we can re-sign Auld and get Huet or Theodore while trading Thomas for some assets, be they picks or roster players.

I'd rather ride out one more season of Fernandez then take on another long term contract which I believe you are suggesting.
We don't need another Schaeffer taking up 2.3M and playing at a replacement player level.
The 3rd liners should really be made up of players at no more than 1M.
That is the only way you have the salary cap flexibility to sign top 6 forwards and top 4 D.

[PedroSpecialK]

I'm not saying I would advocate dealing Fernandez for someone who makes a decent bit long-term - we may as well buy him out if we're to do that (another scenario that wouldn't be too bad). I don't think Fernandez coming off a couple knee surgeries is the answer for next season - and as bad as Thomas has been this year, I'm more willing to bet on Thomas in the next 14 months than Fernandez.

[BellhornIsGod]

PedroSpecialK..im not sure how you could say "as bad as Thomas has been this year" when as of 2 games ago he was 2nd in the NHL in Save % and 10th in GAA. Now granted the last two games have been historically bad but as of 5 days ago he was close to back to back shut-outs. Granted this is not the time for having back to back games in which you give up 5+ goals but I feel as though Timmy deserves a little more love for his overall body of work than he is given.

[PedroSpecialK]

PedroSpecialK..im not sure how you could say "as bad as Thomas has been this year" when as of 2 games ago he was 2nd in the NHL in Save % and 10th in GAA. Now granted the last two games have been historically bad but as of 5 days ago he was close to back to back shut-outs. Granted this is not the time for having back to back games in which you give up 5+ goals but I feel as though Timmy deserves a little more love for his overall body of work than he is given.

The further along we get in the season, the more I find myself siding with SJH on Thomas - he's a decent goalie. He's maybe starting caliber on, say, the Lightning or the Panthers. However, there was a time earlier this year where we could have sold high and gotten some assets for the best a 34 year old goaltender's ever played. Now that we didn't and we're stuck with someone who (imo) is bound and already has started to turn into a pumpkin makes me a bit bitter about it. Yeah, Thomas has played fine this year, better than everyone expected, but most goalies would in this system - look at the turnaround Alex Auld has had.

[PedroSpecialK]

Just to update: Larry Brooks says that the cap is heading up to $56.3m for next season. This is huge news for the Bruins, as it frees up over $5m for the Bruins without them doing anything with Murray, Fernandez or Schaefer. With some maneuvering, Chiarelli could end up being able to snap Hossa as well as a puck-moving defenseman.

[j44thor]

Just to update: Larry Brooks says that the cap is heading up to $56.3m for next season. This is huge news for the Bruins, as it frees up over $5m for the Bruins without them doing anything with Murray, Fernandez or Schaefer. With some maneuvering, Chiarelli could end up being able to snap Hossa as well as a puck-moving defenseman.

Most of that 5M will be eaten up by RFA's. Unless they buy out Murray or Fernandez (unlikely given this teams operating history) they won't have the cap space to go after anyone.

Actually they might have to buy out one of those two just to resign a Chuck Kobasew.
5M isn't going to go very far when they need to resign Wideman, Kobasew, Mark Stuart, Nokie, etc.

I think Wideman will take up close to 3M of that 5. I don't think there is anyway Hossa will be figuring into the B's plans this off-season. He will probably be looking for and get at least 7.5M per season.
And I think PIT is probably in a great position to keep him.

I'd actually rather see the B's go after a different PIT W and try to snag Ryan Malone if they have the cap space.

[PedroSpecialK]

Fair points. If we can get Wideman for, say $4m/year, Stuart for $1.2m/year, Nokelainen at $1m, and Kobasew at $3m and we're able to move Schaefer and buyout Murray, that leaves us approximately $4.5m free in cap space:

Imo, that's pretty generous with the RFAs and is predicting this lineup:

Sturm-Savard-Kessel
Lucic-Bergeron-Kobasew
Axelsson-Krejci-Nokelainen
Karsums-Sobotka-Thornton

Chara-Wideman
Stuart-Ference
Alberts-Hnidy/Lashoff

This assumes a Murray buyout/Reich getting waived, and Hnidy staying on the roster as the 7th d-man with a predicted $30.5m cap hit from our forwards, $16.95m hit from our defensemen, and $5.433m in net. That brings us to a total of $52.89m. This is, however, with the high RFA estimations and assuming we keep Manny Fernandez around (a buyout for him would not be unwelcome - that would bring that cap hit down to $51m if we re-sign Auld for $1m). Hossa may be unfeasable with our current salary cap issues (and if JJ is even willing to spend to the cap - I think he would be as he's spent close to it with Zhamnov on LTIR), but someone like Liles or Brian Campbell isn't out of the question imo.

[BigMike]

Fair points. If we can get Wideman for, say $4m/year, Stuart for $1.2m/year, Nokelainen at $1m, and Kobasew at $3m and we're able to move Schaefer and buyout Murray, that leaves us approximately $4.5m free in cap space:

I know it is the new NHL, etc.

But really Dennis Wideman after one good year in the NHL is suddenly going to be a 4 million dollar player?

And Chuck Kobasew for 3 million a year??????

Trent Hunter signed a month ago for 2 million a year (5 year). he is at least as good if not better than Kobasew. No way i go more than about 2.2 for Chuck

[PedroSpecialK]

I'm not saying that I'd advocate signing them to those deals (especially Kobasew - but they guy's a relatively young 2-time 20+ goal scorer), but was just giving an example of the flexibility we might have under the cap this year.

[erfus]

I'm not saying that I'd advocate signing them to those deals (especially Kobasew - but they guy's a relatively young 2-time 20+ goal scorer), but was just giving an example of the flexibility we might have under the cap this year.

I think the higher cap # probably won't be so high, considering it came from an NHLPA source. But, that said, the Bs will still be one of the teams with the fewest dollars left to play with. I'm sure you'll see some inflation this summer in what is a dwindling UFA market. Hossa is going to cash in big time and I am starting to hope it's somewhere other than Boston. Too much / too many years / too many question marks.

My radical idea, if he goes to the restricted FA market, would be to: a) dump Murray & Shaefer or bury them in Providence (no buy outs--I have a cold, black heart and it's not my money); b) trade Kobasew and maybe even Wideman to create more salary room if necessary; and c) sign Jay Bouwmeester to a gigantic offer sheet. He's the total package on defense--size, speed, durability, offensive instincts, and he's still just 24. I'm talking something like 7 years / 52.5 million. You put him on the ice with Chara and you have the best shut-down defensive pairing in the league by a long shot.

The time has come for Boston to stop spending significant money on complimentary players like Kobasew, Ward, etc. Go big time or stand pat.

[PedroSpecialK]

I wouldn't be against that at all. The only question is would Boumeester be worth the first rounders, but when I consider the blueline we'd have next year, it doesn't even matter - our depth in the prospect ranks allows us to really go hard after one guy this offseason for a defenseman, and if there's anyone that'd be worth it (now that Phaneuf's locked up), it'd be Boumeester.

I still think Schaefer has enough value to get moved for a Shean Donovan type of player, or a really low pick, but Murray may need to be put in Providence or bought out. Kobasew could bring back something nice in a trade, perhaps a first rounder to offset the loss of whatever goes in the Boumeester offer sheet. Then, trade Alberts on draft day for a pick or something and the lineup ought to look something like this:

Sturm-Savard-Kessel
Lucic-Krejci-Bergeron
Axelsson-Nokelainen-Karsums
Reich-Sobotka-Thornton

Chara-Boumeester
Wideman-Stuart
Ference-Lashoff

Thomas
Fernandez

By my count, that should be a good bit below the cap if we can get all of Murray's salary off - somewhere around $51.212m without any of Murray's salary, giving us enough wiggle room to either re-sign Ward or go after a top 6 forward like Malone.

[erfus]

Sturm-Savard-Kessel
Lucic-Krejci-Bergeron
Axelsson-Nokelainen-Karsums
Reich-Sobotka-Thornton

Chara-Boumeester
Wideman-Stuart
Ference-Lashoff

Thomas
Fernandez

I'd be thrilled with that, honestly. The forward core is thin, but I think there would be a bit of cap space to make one more addition, perhaps with the combination of dumping Ference in favor of Shane Hnidy, who is under contract. I thought Lashoff showed he was ready in his March stint, playing more minutes than Stuart-Hnidy in his last game with Boston. I like his future here. I also like loading the bottom 6 forward spots with kids like Nokie, Sobotka, even someone like Karsums that may be able to contribute more than you may expect given regular playing time. Nate Thompson, who I would've liked to have seen up for a cup of coffee instead of Jeff Hoggan, could be in play as a PK / energy guy that can actually skate and play hockey.

Goal scoring would not be the forte of that lineup, but so long as they have a good defensive coach in Julien that can implement a sound box+1 style, they have a shot at trapping their way deep into the playoffs if they stay relatively healthy. That D has the potential to be stellar with Stuart getting better with each passing month, Wideman's improvement and PP abilities, and Lashoff's potential finally starting to show up in the big leagues.

[j44thor]

I think the higher cap # probably won't be so high, considering it came from an NHLPA source. But, that said, the Bs will still be one of the teams with the fewest dollars left to play with. I'm sure you'll see some inflation this summer in what is a dwindling UFA market. Hossa is going to cash in big time and I am starting to hope it's somewhere other than Boston. Too much / too many years / too many question marks.

My radical idea, if he goes to the restricted FA market, would be to: a) dump Murray & Shaefer or bury them in Providence (no buy outs--I have a cold, black heart and it's not my money); b) trade Kobasew and maybe even Wideman to create more salary room if necessary; and c) sign Jay Bouwmeester to a gigantic offer sheet. He's the total package on defense--size, speed, durability, offensive instincts, and he's still just 24. I'm talking something like 7 years / 52.5 million. You put him on the ice with Chara and you have the best shut-down defensive pairing in the league by a long shot.

The time has come for Boston to stop spending significant money on complimentary players like Kobasew, Ward, etc. Go big time or stand pat.

Too bad FLA is projected to be about 18M under the cap so there really isn't an offer the B's can make for Bouwmeester that FLA couldn't and likely wouldn't match...
Also burying Murray and Schaeffer won't buy you any cap room in the off-season.
They count 100% towards the cap in the off-season regardless of where they are assigned.
The max an NHL team can go over the cap in the offseason is 10%.

The B's go big time is a yr away when they clear Manny F and Glen M and have another yr of experience for Kessel, Lucic and Krejci along with hopefully a completely healthy season from Bergeron and an NHL ready Rask. Add a key piece or two to that group and you could have a legit cup contender. This off-season is the time to stand pat and not make any panic signings.

[erfus]

Too bad FLA is projected to be about 18M under the cap so there really isn't an offer the B's can make for Bouwmeester that FLA couldn't and likely wouldn't match...

Never know until you try it. It wouldn't be a cap space issue per se for Florida, it would be a 'Are we willing to give this guy franchise d $ and years given where we are in our development cycle?' I think you're probably right--but they'd have to think long and hard about it. I'm not sure how FLA is doing financially, nor do I know off the top of my head who their owner is and how much he cares about hockey.

Also burying Murray and Schaeffer won't buy you any cap room in the off-season.
They count 100% towards the cap in the off-season regardless of where they are assigned.
The max an NHL team can go over the cap in the offseason is 10%.

I don't see this as a significant hinderence. 10% of the cap is upward of 5.6M if the article is to be believed. Murray + Shaefer is, what, 6.2M? There are all sorts of ways to circumvent the cap, if you're committed enough to do so.

The B's go big time is a yr away when they clear Manny F and Glen M and have another yr of experience for Kessel, Lucic and Krejci along with hopefully a completely healthy season from Bergeron and an NHL ready Rask. Add a key piece or two to that group and you could have a legit cup contender. This off-season is the time to stand pat and not make any panic signings.

I also agree with this, generally. If my bananas for J-Bo plan fell through, I'd stay the course. I'm not enamoured by Hossa's playoff record. There aren't that many young, really good UFAs in this market either. Maybe add an undervalued piece of the puzzle, whoever that turns out to be (JM Liles?), but avoid making a splash just to get the Bruins name in the paper.

[Sille Skrub]

Nice work in this thread, PSK. Good stuff.

[PedroSpecialK]

Nice work in this thread, PSK. Good stuff.

Danke schoen

[PedroSpecialK]

Here are the tables and numbers updated for the Kobasew signing:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Savard, Marc	C	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	UFA
Bergeron, Patrice	C	4,750,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,750,000	UFA
Murray, Glen	RW	4,150,000	4,150,000	4,150,000	UFA
Zhamnov, Alexei	C	4,100,000	4,100,000	UFA
Sturm, Marco	LW	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	UFA
Kessel, Phil	C	2,200,000	2,200,000	2,200,000	RFA
Schaefer, Peter	LW	2,100,000	2,100,000	2,300,000	2,300,000	UFA
Axelsson, Per-Johan	LW	1,850,000	1,850,000	1,850,000	UFA
Kobasew, Chuck	RW	2,333,333	1,200,000	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333
Nokelainen, Petteri	C	1,055,033	984,200	RFA
Karsums, Martins	RW	883,333	883,333	883,333	RFA
Krejci, David	C	883,333	883,333	883,333	RFA
Lucic, Milan	LW	850,000	585,000	585,000	685,000	RFA
Sobotka, Vladimir	C	750,000	550,000	575,000	625,000	RFA
Thornton, Shawn	RW	516,667	500,000	500,000	500,000	UFA
Metropolit, Glen	C	500,000	500,000	UFA
Reich, Jeremy	LW	487,500	475,000	500,000	UFA
Totals:		34,775,866	34,460,866	30,260,000	19,943,333	11,583,333
AAV For '08-'09		30,260,000
AAV For '08-'09 Including Kobasew and Nokelainen		31,160,000
Kobasew: $2,300,000
Nokelainen: $900,000

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Chara, Zdeno	D	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	UFA
Ward, Aaron	D	2,750,000	2,750,000	UFA
Ference, Andrew	D	1,400,000	1,235,000	1,340,000	1,625,000	UFA
Stuart, Mark	D	1,579,900	942,400	RFA
Alberts, Andrew	D	1,250,000	1,100,000	1,400,000	UFA
Wideman, Dennis	D	600,000	600,000	RFA
Lashoff, Matt	D	850,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Hnidy, Shane	D	757,500	757,500	757,500	UFA
Totals:		16,687,400	15,734,900	11,847,500	9,125,000	7,500,000
AAV for '08-'09		11,757,500
AAV for '08-'09 Including Wideman and Stuart estimations		15,957,500
Wideman: $3,000,000
Stuart: $1,200,000

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Fernandez, Manny	G	4,333,333	4,333,333	4,333,333	UFA
Rask, Tuukka	G	3,200,000	850,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Thomas, Tim	G	1,100,000	1,100,000	1,100,000	UFA
Auld, Alexander	G	600,000	600,000	UFA
Totals:		9,233,333	6,883,333	6,283,333	850,000
AAV for '08-'09		8,633,333
AAV for '08-'09 with Rask in Providence		5,433,333

Post-Kobasew, my estimated AAV for '08-'09 stands at $51,174,166.

[TheRealness]

Forgive my ignorance, but how much Cap Space are we going to have if Chiarelli doesn't shed Murray/Manny/ or Schaefer?

Essentially, who would they have to deal to get under the cap to sign Hossa, for example.

[PedroSpecialK]

Forgive my ignorance, but how much Cap Space are we going to have if Chiarelli doesn't shed Murray/Manny/ or Schaefer?

Essentially, who would they have to deal to get under the cap to sign Hossa, for example.

We'd have to dump Schaefer, buyout Murray and let Ward go to sign Hossa is what it looks like right now. That, or buy out both Manny and Murray, keep Schaefer and Axelsson, let Ward go and re-sign Auld.

It's a possibility, but not a good one.

[j44thor]

We'd have to dump Schaefer, buyout Murray and let Ward go to sign Hossa is what it looks like right now. That, or buy out both Manny and Murray, keep Schaefer and Axelsson, let Ward go and re-sign Auld.

It's a possibility, but not a good one.

I can't see Hossa as a possibility, he is likely to command 8-9M for at least 3-4 yrs.

They don't necessarily have to buy out Murray as sending him to Providence would take his $$ off the cap during the reg. season.

I still see the B's most likely targets being Malone and Rolston.
Either of whom I'd be thrilled with at the right price.

[PedroSpecialK]

I would do backflips if they put Murray in Providence, but I just don't see it happening - he had too much of a leadership role on the club and JJ wouldn't fork over that money (though, Zhamnov's exemption money is up this year so he might fill that slot with Murray's).

[TheRealness]

Hossa isn't going to get 8-9 million. That would be the biggest overpay since Mo Vaughn signed with the Mets.

[PedroSpecialK]

Hossa isn't going to get 8-9 million. That would be the biggest overpay since Mo Vaughn signed with the Mets.

I think j44 is right here though - he's already making $6m this year, and his better playoff performance this year will net him a huge payday. Throw in the fact that he's an all-star caliber defensive player and you could see $9+m for 5-7 years.

[j44thor]

I think j44 is right here though - he's already making $6m this year, and his better playoff performance this year will net him a huge payday. Throw in the fact that he's an all-star caliber defensive player and you could see $9+m for 5-7 years.

I'll be surprised if he gets less than 8M per annum.
With teams locking up their stars at an increasing rate, it might be awhile before another proven 30+ goal scorer makes it to the open market before age 33+.
Hossa is clearly the prize of this FA market and some team is going to make Hossa the "face" of their franchise.
If anything he might be underrated after playing in relative obscurity the past few seasons in the hockey hotbed of ATL...

Not sure where to add this news but it appears Soderberg is coming over next season.
That can only be good news for the B's, according to nhlscap.com his cap # is 725K next season and then RFA. Could be a steal if he makes the big club.

Carl Soderberg, according to Chiarelli, will visit Boston sometime this summer, although it's undetermined whether he will participate in the July development camp. "He told us he wants to play in North America next year," Chiarelli said.

Edited by j44thor, 15 May 2008 - 12:57 PM.

[PedroSpecialK]

His AAV is $763,333 according to NHLscap.com - that leaves a ton of money if we were to cut/waive Murray and dump Schaefer to sign either Hainsey or Liles (possibly even Redden), not to mention get a depth guy (re-sign Metro?)

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 15 May 2008 - 12:56 PM.

[j44thor]

His AAV is $763,333 according to NHLscap.com - that leaves a ton of money if we were to cut/waive Murray and dump Schaefer to sign either Hainsey or Liles (possibly even Redden), not to mention get a depth guy (re-sign Metro?)

July 1st can't get here fast enough.

With the success the Swedes are having in the "new" NHL, I'm definitely excited to see what Soderberg can bring to Boston. It will probably take a while for him to learn the system but you can't teach his size/speed/playmaking ability.

[TheRealness]

I think j44 is right here though - he's already making $6m this year, and his better playoff performance this year will net him a huge payday. Throw in the fact that he's an all-star caliber defensive player and you could see $9+m for 5-7 years.

At that money, that would be an absolute albatross for the Bruins.

PASS

[PedroSpecialK]

Bumping because Bob McKenzie says the salary cap could go north of $57m. If so, the Bruins could be in a good position to add Hossa provided they trade Axelsson or Schaefer and cut/waive/demote Murray. If they do both of those, that leaves them about $10m+ in cap space, which is enough to get Hossa and a depth defenseman in the Aaron Ward mold should Lashoff need more seasoning. Not advocating it, but interesting nonetheless.

[TheRealness]

Not to be crass about it, but I think it's time for Lashoff to either shit or get off the pot. The kid needs to play in Boston next year so we can figure out if we have a #2 PP Qb who is can play NHL average defense, or if he's just not going to be able to play the type of defense this team needs him to.

[PedroSpecialK]

If they get the cap space, I would think Redden (if he's reasonable) or B Campbell would be a better use of the money. The teams #1 weakness is in the defencemen.

I agree completely. As enticing as Hossa sounds, he'd more than likely be a mistake. Redden would be someone I go after hard.

[PedroSpecialK]

Alright, here's the update for the post-draft offseason, pre-UFA period. My estimated AAV (including Nokelainen and Wideman's contracts) is $52,594,999 (math below).

Forwards:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Savard, Marc	C	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	UFA
Bergeron, Patrice	C	4,750,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,750,000	UFA
Murray, Glen	RW	4,150,000	4,150,000	UFA
Sturm, Marco	LW	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	UFA
Kobasew, Chuck	RW	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	UFA
Kessel, Phil	C	2,200,000	2,200,000	RFA
Schaefer, Peter	LW	2,100,000	2,300,000	2,300,000	UFA
Axelsson, Per-Johan	LW	1,850,000	1,850,000	UFA
Nokelainen, Petteri	C	850,000	850,000
Karsums, Martins	RW	883,333	883,333	RFA
Krejci, David	C	883,333	883,333	RFA
Lucic, Milan	LW	850,000	585,000	685,000	RFA
Sobotka, Vladimir	C	750,000	575,000	625,000	RFA
Thornton, Shawn	RW	516,667	500,000	500,000	UFA
Reich, Jeremy	LW	487,500	500,000	UFA
Totals:		30,254,166	30,209,999	19,943,333	11,583,333
AAV For '08-'09		31,104,166

Defensemen:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Chara, Zdeno	D	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	UFA
Wideman, Dennis	D	3,000,000	RFA
Ward, Aaron	D	2,500,000	2,500,000	2,500,000	UFA
Ference, Andrew	D	1,400,000	1,340,000	1,625,000	UFA
Stuart, Mark	D	1,300,000	1,100,000	1,500,000	UFA
Alberts, Andrew	D	1,250,000	1,400,000	UFA
Lashoff, Matt	D	850,000	850,000	RFA
Hnidy, Shane	D	757,500	757,500	UFA
Totals:		15,557,500	15,447,500	13,125,000	7,500,000
AAV for '08-'09 Including Wideman estimation		16,057,500

Goalies:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Fernandez, Manny	G	4,333,333	4,333,333	UFA
Rask, Tuukka *	G	3,200,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Thomas, Tim	G	1,100,000	1,100,000	UFA
Totals:		8,633,333	6,283,333	850,000
AAV for '08-'09		5,433,333

Here are some more scenarios with players being traded. I've added Axelsson to this table and taken Fernandez out, as I believe it's more realistic to expect PJ to be traded.

Table

Players Traded:	08-'09 AAV After Trade
Murray	48,444,999
Schaefer	50,294,999
Axelsson	50,744,999
Murray & Schaefer	46,144,999
Murray & Axelsson	46,594,999
Schaefer & Axelsson	48,444,999
Murray, Schaefer & Axelsson	44,294,999

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 30 June 2008 - 05:53 PM.

[TheRealness]

Cap will be $56,700 max and $40,700 min.

http://www.tsn.ca/nh....headlines_main

[PedroSpecialK]

Updated for Nokelainen signing

[PedroSpecialK]

Here are the updated numbers post-Ryder:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Savard, Marc	C	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	UFA
Bergeron, Patrice	C	4,750,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,750,000	UFA
Murray, Glen	RW	4,150,000	4,150,000	UFA
Ryder, Michael	RW	4,000,000	4,000,000	4,000,000	4,000,000
Sturm, Marco	LW	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	UFA
Kobasew, Chuck	RW	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	UFA
Kessel, Phil	C	2,200,000	2,200,000	RFA
Schaefer, Peter	LW	2,100,000	2,300,000	2,300,000	UFA
Axelsson, Per-Johan	LW	1,850,000	1,850,000	UFA
Nokelainen, Petteri	C	850,000	850,000	850,000
Karsums, Martins	RW	883,333	883,333	RFA
Krejci, David	C	883,333	883,333	RFA
Lucic, Milan	LW	850,000	585,000	685,000	RFA
Sobotka, Vladimir	C	750,000	575,000	625,000	RFA
Thornton, Shawn	RW	516,667	500,000	500,000	UFA
Reich, Jeremy	LW	487,500	500,000	UFA
Totals:		35,104,166	34,209,999	24,756,667	15,583,333
AAV For '08-'09		35,104,166

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Chara, Zdeno	D	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	UFA
Wideman, Dennis	D	3,000,000	RFA
Ward, Aaron	D	2,500,000	2,500,000	2,500,000	UFA
Ference, Andrew	D	1,400,000	1,340,000	1,625,000	UFA
Stuart, Mark	D	1,300,000	1,100,000	1,500,000	UFA
Alberts, Andrew	D	1,250,000	1,400,000	UFA
Lashoff, Matt	D	850,000	850,000	RFA
Hnidy, Shane	D	757,500	757,500	UFA
Totals:		15,557,500	15,447,500	13,125,000	7,500,000
AAV for '08-'09 Including Wideman estimation without Lashoff at the NHL level		17,707,500

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
Fernandez, Manny	G	4,333,333	4,333,333	UFA
Rask, Tuukka *	G	3,200,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Thomas, Tim	G	1,100,000	1,100,000	UFA
Totals:		8,633,333	6,283,333	850,000
AAV for '08-'09		5,433,333

Table

Players Traded:	08-'09 AAV After Trade
Murray	54,094,999
Schaefer	55,944,999
Axelsson	56,394,999
Murray & Schaefer	51,794,999
Murray & Axelsson	52,244,999
Schaefer & Axelsson	54,094,999
Murray, Schaefer & Axelsson	49,944,999

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 02 July 2008 - 09:49 AM.

[Eddie Jurak]

I'd still rather not see Murray bought out.

His contract calls for ~$4.2 million - that means he can be bought out for $2.8, or $1.4 this year and $1.4 next year. That $2.8 is a sunk cost. Whether Murray is here or gone, that money must be spent.

So the real question is whether Murray is a good value at $1.4 million, the amount of extra money that must be spent to keep him on the team. I think he absolutely is worth it. He's a solid veteran presence in the locker room, and he understands his role within Julien's system, which is a VERY important point.

In the playoffs, the line of Savard (known more as an offensive guy, and playing with a cracked vertebrae) with Murray and Lucic (rookie known for hockey sense but not speed) was often matched against Montreal's top line, and in spite of their physical limiatations they did the job against a team whose hallmark is its offensive speed and skill. That alone is enough reason to plunk down $1.4 million to have Murray around.

[Snakebauer007]

Maybe we were watching different things, but Murray was the worst player on the ice in the playoffs.

Dont care the amount, corpses on skates are not worth it.

[BoSox24]

Maybe we were watching different things, but Murray was the worst player on the ice in the playoffs.

Dont care the amount, corpses on skates are not worth it.

Agreed. Murray was by far the worst player in the entire playoffs last year. He was cooked. No reason to think he will bounce back at all. Time to move on....and with the Wideman contract we will be over the cap so a move needs to be made. As it is now we have way too many forwards so somethings gotta give.

[PedroSpecialK]

Here's the table updated for the Wideman signing.

Forwards:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Savard, Marc	C	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	UFA
Bergeron, Patrice	C	4,750,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,750,000	UFA
Murray, Glen	RW	4,150,000	4,150,000	UFA
Ryder, Michael	RW	4,000,000	4,000,000	4,000,000	4,000,000
Sturm, Marco	LW	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	UFA
Kobasew, Chuck	RW	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	UFA
Kessel, Phil	C	2,200,000	2,200,000	RFA
Schaefer, Peter	LW	2,100,000	2,300,000	2,300,000	UFA
Axelsson, Per-Johan	LW	1,850,000	1,850,000	UFA
Nokelainen, Petteri	C	850,000	850,000	850,000
Karsums, Martins	RW	883,333	883,333	RFA
Krejci, David	C	883,333	883,333	RFA
Lucic, Milan	LW	850,000	585,000	685,000	RFA
Sobotka, Vladimir	C	750,000	575,000	625,000	RFA
Thornton, Shawn	RW	516,667	500,000	500,000	UFA
Reich, Jeremy	LW	487,500	500,000	UFA
Totals:		35,104,166	34,209,999	24,756,667	15,583,333
AAV For '08-'09		35,104,166

Defensemen:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Chara, Zdeno	D	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	UFA
Wideman, Dennis	D	3,937,500	3,937,500	3,937,500	3,937,500	3,937,500	UFA
Ward, Aaron	D	2,500,000	2,500,000	2,500,000	UFA
Ference, Andrew	D	1,400,000	1,340,000	1,625,000	UFA
Stuart, Mark	D	1,300,000	1,100,000	1,500,000	UFA
Alberts, Andrew	D	1,250,000	1,400,000	UFA
Lashoff, Matt	D	850,000	850,000	RFA
Hnidy, Shane	D	757,500	757,500	UFA
Totals:		16,495,500	15,447,500	13,125,000	7,500,000	3,937,500
AAV for '08-'09 Without Lashoff at the NHL level		18,645,000

Goalies:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Fernandez, Manny	G	4,333,333	4,333,333	UFA
Rask, Tuukka *	G	3,200,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Thomas, Tim	G	1,100,000	1,100,000	UFA
Totals:		8,633,333	6,283,333	850,000
AAV for '08-'09		5,433,333

As of now, our cap hit stands at $59,182,499

Buyout/Trade Cap Scenarios

Table

Players Traded:	08-'09 AAV After Trade
Murray	55,032,499
Schaefer	56,882,499
Axelsson	57,332,499
Murray & Schaefer	52,732,499
Murray & Axelsson	53,182,499
Schaefer & Axelsson	55,032,499
Murray, Schaefer & Axelsson	50,882,499

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 21 July 2008 - 09:57 PM.

[BoSoxFink]

They may not only have to buy out Murray now but also buy out another guy too or trade someone. If they dont they wont have any kind of wiggle room under the cap this season. You'd like to go into the season at least 2.5 to 3 million under the cap so if you need to make a move at the trade deadline, you have that opportunity available to you.

[PedroSpecialK]

They may not only have to buy out Murray now but also buy out another guy too or trade someone. If they dont they wont have any kind of wiggle room under the cap this season. You'd like to go into the season at least 2.5 to 3 million under the cap so if you need to make a move at the trade deadline, you have that opportunity available to you.

I'm pretty sure the Kings would take on Murray. They're about $10m below the floor and would be well served to have a veteran presence in their young locker room. I'd be willing to give up a 3rd with Murray for something like Ivanans.

[TheRealness]

I'd trade Murray to LA for future considerations.

(i.e. a bag of peanuts and a case of Miller Lite)

[PedroSpecialK]

Alright, redid some of the math and there were some errors in my old table so here's the new one; our current AAV w/o Lashoff stands at $59,119,999, which is $2,419,999 above the $56,700,000 cap.

Forwards:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Savard, Marc	C	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	UFA
Bergeron, Patrice	C	4,750,000	5,000,000	5,000,000	5,750,000	UFA
Murray, Glen	RW	4,150,000	4,150,000	UFA
Ryder, Michael	RW	4,000,000	4,000,000	4,000,000	4,000,000
Sturm, Marco	LW	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	3,500,000	UFA
Kobasew, Chuck	RW	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	2,333,333	UFA
Kessel, Phil	C	2,200,000	2,200,000	RFA
Schaefer, Peter	LW	2,100,000	2,300,000	2,300,000	UFA
Axelsson, Per-Johan	LW	1,850,000	1,850,000	UFA
Nokelainen, Petteri	C	850,000	850,000	850,000
Karsums, Martins	RW	883,333	883,333	RFA
Krejci, David	C	883,333	883,333	RFA
Lucic, Milan	LW	850,000	585,000	685,000	RFA
Sobotka, Vladimir	C	750,000	575,000	625,000	RFA
Thornton, Shawn	RW	516,667	500,000	500,000	UFA
Reich, Jeremy	LW	487,500	500,000	UFA
Totals:		35,104,166	34,209,999	24,756,667	15,583,333
AAV For '08-'09		35,104,166

Defensemen:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Chara, Zdeno	D	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	7,500,000	UFA
Wideman, Dennis	D	3,875,000	3,250,000	3,750,000	4,000,000	4,500,000	UFA
Ward, Aaron	D	2,500,000	2,500,000	2,500,000	UFA
Ference, Andrew	D	1,400,000	1,340,000	1,625,000	UFA
Stuart, Mark	D	1,300,000	1,100,000	1,500,000	UFA
Alberts, Andrew	D	1,250,000	1,400,000	UFA
Lashoff, Matt	D	850,000	850,000	RFA
Hnidy, Shane	D	757,500	757,500	UFA
Totals:		19,432,500	19,312,500	17,000,000	11,375,000	3,875,000
AAV for '08-'09 Without Lashoff at the NHL level		18,582,500

Goaltenders:

Table

Player	Position	AAV	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Fernandez, Manny	G	4,333,333	4,333,333	UFA
Rask, Tuukka *	G	3,200,000	850,000	850,000	RFA
Thomas, Tim	G	1,100,000	1,100,000	UFA
Totals:		8,633,333	6,283,333	850,000
AAV for '08-'09		5,433,333

Trade Scenarios:

Table

Players Traded:	08-'09 AAV After Trade
Murray	54,969,999
Schaefer	57,019,999
Axelsson	57,269,999
Murray & Schaefer	52,869,999
Murray & Axelsson	53,119,999
Schaefer & Axelsson	55,169,999
Murray, Schaefer & Axelsson	51,019,999

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 23 July 2008 - 10:44 AM.

[FL4WL3SS]

The problem there with your trade scenarios is that you're not accounting for the fact that they would need to bring salary back, which changes the whole dynamic of those numbers. Not sure many teams are looking for salary dumps at this point.